'Lucky' Cavaliers have the edge when facing low-scoring frontcourts
You’ve got to be good to be lucky. And, heading into the NBA Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers have had plenty of luck.
That’s not to say they haven’t had their share of bad fortunes in the postseason, what with Kevin Love going down with a shoulder injury and Kyrie Irving hopping around on one leg. But even in those dire situations, the Cavs have pulled the horseshoe from their butts and benefited from some good ol' fashion luck.
Most of that good juju pertains to the frontcourt, more specifically the power forward and center positions, which looked solid at the start of the season. Headlined by Love and backed with hard-working veteran Anderson Varejao, big-bodied Timofey Mozgov, and versatile forward Tristan Thompson, Cleveland’s big men were the perfect complement to LeBron James and Irving.
Then Varejao tore his Achilles in December. His absence, while felt in the second half of the season, was compounded by Love’s separated shoulder versus Boston in the first round of the playoffs, leaving Cleveland’s frontcourt about as thin as Prince’s mustache. And that’s when luck showed up.
Following a four-game beatdown of the Celtics, the Cavaliers were set to face the Chicago Bulls and their towering frontcourt attack, which included a resurgent Pau Gasol who dominated Milwaukee in the opening round.
And Gasol continued that strong play into the second-round matchup with the Cavs before suffering a hamstring injury in Game 3 – a series-swinging lucky break for the Cavaliers. Without their big man in the middle making quick work of Cleveland’s forwards, the Bulls dropped three straight after winning two of the first three games.
In the Eastern Conference finals, luck would again side with Cleveland. The Hawks had one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA, featuring All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Milsap along with budding forward DeMarre Carroll, who looked to have the size and speed to slow LeBron on defense.
Luck would even the odds for Cleveland, aching the knees of Horford – who was a step slower all series – and plaguing Carroll with a scary knee injury that hindered his production on offense and defense. Atlanta's forwards were dominated on the boards and gave up far too many second-chance opportunities.
The Cavs are also lucky to get such production from Thompson, who started the season as the fourth interior forward in the rotation. Cleveland almost buried Thompson on the bench, going with Mike Miller in the starting five in the playoffs, but once given the chance, Thompson’s activity and athleticism overwhelmed the broken-down frontcourts of the Bulls and Hawks.
And now, on the eve of the NBA Finals – after a lengthy layoff between the conference finals and Game 1 – Cleveland seems to have lucked out again. At first glance, meeting the top-seeded Golden State Warriors would seem like the last team anyone would want to play for the championship. And the odds would indicate that, with Cleveland pegged as a +180 series underdog against Golden State at -215. However, the Warriors may be the only team that qualified for the postseason that has less frontcourt pop than the Cavs.
Golden State, the top-scoring team in the NBA, finished second last in frontcourt scoring this season, getting just 51.1 points per game from their forwards. That’s only 46.4 percent of their nightly offense. Of course, the bulk of that scoring comes from the hot hands of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson – who combine for 41.4 percent of those total points – leaving the Warriors forwards to serve as glorified garbage men picking up the scraps. Golden State’s big men also failed to clean the glass for most of the season, allowing opponents to pull down 11.6 offensive rebounds a game – sixth most in the NBA. Those second scoring opportunities are what sealed the deal for the Cavs versus Atlanta, averaging almost 14 offensive boards in that series sweep.
Cleveland fared well against teams with lower-scoring frontcourts this season, boasting a 16-8 SU record versus the eight teams that averaged 54.0 points or fewer from their forwards, including splitting its two meetings with Golden State. Of course, the Cavaliers’ spread success isn’t as great – going 9-15 ATS in those games – but that has more to do with being a public favorite in many of those contests. They don't have that problem in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, set as 6-point road underdogs for Thursday's opener.
On the flip side of this argument, Cleveland was much worse against opponents with higher-scoring frontcourts, going just 9-9 SU versus the eight teams with the most frontcourt scoring punch this season (which include basement teams like Sacramento, Utah and Denver). They also finished with an 8-10 ATS mark in those 18 contests.
The Cavs, themselves, ranked second in frontcourt scoring this season, thanks in very large part to James, who falls under that category as a small forward. Cleveland boasted 62.6 points from its frontcourt, 25.3 of those coming from LeBron (more than 40 percent). Take him out of the equation and the Cavs are getting 37.3 points from their other forwards. In the playoffs, that frontcourt production has dipped to 59.9 points per game or 32.3 points when you subtract James' contributions.
On paper, matching up forward versus forward, Golden State has the edge over the Cavs. Draymond Green is the ultimate glue guy and Andrew Bogut is a seasoned veteran with the grittiness to offset the Warriors’ flair. But as those stats above show, Cleveland is more comfortable confining the guards when it knows the forwards don’t pick up the scoring slack.
And, of course, there’s the Cavs’ brand of postseason luck, which should have Golden State’s big men walking on egg shells in this series. But who knows? Cleveland might not need it.
You’ve got to be good to be lucky. And, heading into the NBA Finals, the Cleveland Cavaliers have had plenty of luck.
That’s not to say they haven’t had their share of bad fortunes in the postseason, what with Kevin Love going down with a shoulder injury and Kyrie Irving hopping around on one leg. But even in those dire situations, the Cavs have pulled the horseshoe from their butts and benefited from some good ol' fashion luck.
Most of that good juju pertains to the frontcourt, more specifically the power forward and center positions, which looked solid at the start of the season. Headlined by Love and backed with hard-working veteran Anderson Varejao, big-bodied Timofey Mozgov, and versatile forward Tristan Thompson, Cleveland’s big men were the perfect complement to LeBron James and Irving.
Then Varejao tore his Achilles in December. His absence, while felt in the second half of the season, was compounded by Love’s separated shoulder versus Boston in the first round of the playoffs, leaving Cleveland’s frontcourt about as thin as Prince’s mustache. And that’s when luck showed up.
Following a four-game beatdown of the Celtics, the Cavaliers were set to face the Chicago Bulls and their towering frontcourt attack, which included a resurgent Pau Gasol who dominated Milwaukee in the opening round.
And Gasol continued that strong play into the second-round matchup with the Cavs before suffering a hamstring injury in Game 3 – a series-swinging lucky break for the Cavaliers. Without their big man in the middle making quick work of Cleveland’s forwards, the Bulls dropped three straight after winning two of the first three games.
In the Eastern Conference finals, luck would again side with Cleveland. The Hawks had one of the deepest frontcourts in the NBA, featuring All-Stars Al Horford and Paul Milsap along with budding forward DeMarre Carroll, who looked to have the size and speed to slow LeBron on defense.
Luck would even the odds for Cleveland, aching the knees of Horford – who was a step slower all series – and plaguing Carroll with a scary knee injury that hindered his production on offense and defense. Atlanta's forwards were dominated on the boards and gave up far too many second-chance opportunities.
The Cavs are also lucky to get such production from Thompson, who started the season as the fourth interior forward in the rotation. Cleveland almost buried Thompson on the bench, going with Mike Miller in the starting five in the playoffs, but once given the chance, Thompson’s activity and athleticism overwhelmed the broken-down frontcourts of the Bulls and Hawks.
And now, on the eve of the NBA Finals – after a lengthy layoff between the conference finals and Game 1 – Cleveland seems to have lucked out again. At first glance, meeting the top-seeded Golden State Warriors would seem like the last team anyone would want to play for the championship. And the odds would indicate that, with Cleveland pegged as a +180 series underdog against Golden State at -215. However, the Warriors may be the only team that qualified for the postseason that has less frontcourt pop than the Cavs.
Golden State, the top-scoring team in the NBA, finished second last in frontcourt scoring this season, getting just 51.1 points per game from their forwards. That’s only 46.4 percent of their nightly offense. Of course, the bulk of that scoring comes from the hot hands of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson – who combine for 41.4 percent of those total points – leaving the Warriors forwards to serve as glorified garbage men picking up the scraps. Golden State’s big men also failed to clean the glass for most of the season, allowing opponents to pull down 11.6 offensive rebounds a game – sixth most in the NBA. Those second scoring opportunities are what sealed the deal for the Cavs versus Atlanta, averaging almost 14 offensive boards in that series sweep.
Cleveland fared well against teams with lower-scoring frontcourts this season, boasting a 16-8 SU record versus the eight teams that averaged 54.0 points or fewer from their forwards, including splitting its two meetings with Golden State. Of course, the Cavaliers’ spread success isn’t as great – going 9-15 ATS in those games – but that has more to do with being a public favorite in many of those contests. They don't have that problem in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, set as 6-point road underdogs for Thursday's opener.
On the flip side of this argument, Cleveland was much worse against opponents with higher-scoring frontcourts, going just 9-9 SU versus the eight teams with the most frontcourt scoring punch this season (which include basement teams like Sacramento, Utah and Denver). They also finished with an 8-10 ATS mark in those 18 contests.
The Cavs, themselves, ranked second in frontcourt scoring this season, thanks in very large part to James, who falls under that category as a small forward. Cleveland boasted 62.6 points from its frontcourt, 25.3 of those coming from LeBron (more than 40 percent). Take him out of the equation and the Cavs are getting 37.3 points from their other forwards. In the playoffs, that frontcourt production has dipped to 59.9 points per game or 32.3 points when you subtract James' contributions.
On paper, matching up forward versus forward, Golden State has the edge over the Cavs. Draymond Green is the ultimate glue guy and Andrew Bogut is a seasoned veteran with the grittiness to offset the Warriors’ flair. But as those stats above show, Cleveland is more comfortable confining the guards when it knows the forwards don’t pick up the scoring slack.
And, of course, there’s the Cavs’ brand of postseason luck, which should have Golden State’s big men walking on egg shells in this series. But who knows? Cleveland might not need it.
