Weekend Primer
April 24, 2015
Astoundingly, it’s already the last weekend of April. Of course, with baseball starting a bit later than usual this year, this is only the third April weekend that will consist of MLB action, but this upcoming slate of matchups could also prove to be the most exciting weekend of the month. Let’s take a look.
Series To Watch
New York Mets at New York Yankees
It’s only April but this first installment of the 2015 Subway Series has to be considered as the most intriguing meeting between the two New York clubs in several years. On one side, you have the rapidly surging Mets -- aka my main breakout pick for this season -- winners of 11 in a row while improbably owning baseball’s best record. Their opponents, the reemerging Yankees, have played well since a 1-4 start, going 8-3 since that point, including winning three out of four in Detroit this past week.
As a result, the suspense is getting high concerning how both clubs matchup while flashing their impressive streaks. Can the Mets continue their incredible win streak against arguably their toughest competition over this current stretch? Will the Yankees continue to soar and get separation from all the AL East teams that are currently packed together? This is quite the meaningful series.
In the opener on Friday, we could arguably have the most compelling pitching matchup, as reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner Jacob deGrom, who has looked fabulous in his sophomore campaign and enters this one carrying a scoreless streak of over 18 innings, takes on the frequently overpowering Michael Pineda. Tomorrow for the game two, Matt Harvey will make his highly-anticipated first start of the year against the Bronx Bombers, despite being a little dinged up.
Interestingly, both teams currently share the distinction of having the best record in baseball for Over bets. Each team is 10-5-1 towards the Over, including a 4-1 mark for the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Whether it be having action on the ML, RL, or over/under, this should be a pretty dramatic series to watch unfold. It could also provide further clues concerning how legit each club is. I certainly know both are, given my high predictions for each coming into the season, but this series could further solidify that.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
These two NL West rivals met in the first series of the season, and since then, each has further confirmed my confident prediction that both clubs would be battling neck-and-neck for first place in the division. San Diego has pulled off their impressive start, thanks in large part to their revamped offense, which is performing, by far, at its best in years, with significantly more home runs and a much higher batting average. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are also getting notable offensive production, which has been more consistent than their usually reliable starting pitching, as both teams enter this intriguing clash tied for the division lead.
With a chance for one of these clubs to really make a statement and grab the first stronghold of the year for NL West supremacy, this could be a very telling series in the early going, and it could be the result of the streaks both teams are currently riding. You have to like the momentum San Diego is on, as despite losing the last two of their four-game set with Colorado, they’re 9-4 and playing with a glaring sense of confidence, as their offense has already proven how legitimate they are, which has given the club a breath of fresh air considering their many dreadful lineups from years’ past.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, is coming off getting swept by their big rivals, the Giants, this past week in San Francisco, despite winning seven in a row prior to that series. Now they come to Petco Park, looking to get back on track, but it won’t be easy, as San Diego looks poised to continue their current run. Game one could be a critical one in terms of momentum, with Zack Greinke taking on Andrew Cashner. Both pitchers are out to nice starts this year and they can potentially set the tone for the rest of the slate. The Dodgers are 1-5 on the road so far this year, perhaps indicating the Padres are in prime position to secure the upper hand here. I’d recommend taking San Diego’s series odds, and then play it by matchup. The pitching matchup in the opener, for example, looks even and should be close.
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles
Last year, it was the Orioles who won the AL East, while the Red Sox shockingly finished in last, but the teams have flipped positions here in the early going, with Boston assuming a share of first place, and Baltimore finding itself somehow in the division cellar. At the same time, they’re only two games out and potentially could jump back to the top, but with how closely bunched up everyone is at the moment, this looks like it will be a noteworthy American League series in the final weekend of April.
Despite losing their past two games to the fellow division-residing Rays, there’s a lot of positives to take from how Boston has played so far, such as a much improved offense from a year ago. In fact, they’re sixth in baseball with 77 runs scored, which is an average of almost five a game. As a result, they’ve been a terrific play for Over bets, being 10-6 in that regard. There’s no doubt they’ll continue to ride their offense to potential success, making them a seemingly trustworthy play when playing in hitter-friendly parks like Camden Yards.
Baltimore, however, has also been scoring at nice rate, plating only one run less than its counterpart in the same amount of games. Additionally, they’re also tied for the Major League-lead with 22 home runs. Thus, Overs could be the theme of this series, as they generally are when these two offensive-minded clubs meet. When the organizations clashed last weekend, though in a four-game series, it was the Under that went 2-1 (Their Patriot’s Day game Monday morning was called before nine innings so there was no action on any over/under bets in that game). The Orioles enter this series having lost four in a row and definitely need to get back on track after being swept by the Blue Jays, but the Red Sox will certainly seek to pounce on their current misfortunes.
Other Weekend Thoughts
-- Don’t look now but the Astros are in sole possession of first place in the AL West. Yes, it’s only the third week of the season, and yes, every other team in the AL West is currently under .500 -- something that obviously won’t last -- but it’s still very encouraging to see Houston out to their current 8-7 start, after beginning the past handful of seasons dreadfully, which would often result in over losses at season’s end. This year’s version, however, looks pretty legitimate, getting really good pitching from their emerging 1-2 punch of Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh, while also seeing their offense start to come into form. With a trio of Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Chris Carter, I really like the foundation and the direction that the lineup is going in. They’ll really be tested this weekend against a team that led the division for a majority of last year, the Athletics, who currently trail right behind them being only one game back. This series also represents a unique clash of teams on the over/under spectrum, with Oakland sporting an MLB-best 11-6-1 record towards Over bets, while Houston has an MLB-best mark for Unders, being 10-4-1 in that department. This is definitely one of the top series of the weekend.
-- With yet another major top prospect up in the bigs, that being Addison Russell, the Cubs are really starting to come into shape as real contender. Kris Bryant, who I pegged two years to become one of the future faces of baseball, has been tremendous, which is especially encouraging after his somewhat disappointing Major League debut, and I easily envision him continuing on his tear consistently as the rest of his rookie season unfolds. Another one of their standout young pups, Jorge Soler, has also looked really good in the early going and has exhibited the potential to finish with over 30 homers this year. They’re just immensely talented and it should be enough to help them separate from most teams sooner than later. That quest begins continues with their second series this year against the division rival Reds, who have slipped up a bit since their 4-0 start. They’re 4-8 since then, including losing that first series to the Cubs at Wrigley Field, so they’ll want to turn it back around or risk extending their slump that would all but erase their promising beginning to the year. I think Chicago will take this series, although you’d like to believe this is the weekend Jon Lester gets back into form already. He’s assigned for game one opposite Mike Leake.
-- Since owning baseball’s best record at 11-2, the Tigers all of a sudden find themselves on their first losing streak of the year, after losing three straight at home to the Yankees. I mention this upcoming series with the Indians because it can be viewed as important for both teams. Aside from the obvious that this is a rivalry series, Detroit will want to regain its strong momentum from the first two weeks of the year, when they were evidently cruising against all comers. Plus, with Kansas City also playing really well, they’re going to want to keep up with last year’s division runner-up, as to avoid being in the tricky Wild Card situation. Cleveland, meanwhile, has slumped, losing eight of their past 11, and cannot afford to fall any further, given how well the top two teams in their division are playing. It will be a tough task to take a series in Detroit, but they need this to snuff out their current losing ways. Nobody wants to enter the second month of the year in a decisive hole.
Fearless Prediction
I’ve been flawless with my “Fearless Prediction” segment through the season thus far in these weekly articles so let’s try and keep it going here. And I plan on doing it with a very safe pick, actually, anointing the Mariners as this weekend’s team to tail, either for the series and/or for each individual game, when they welcome the Twins to Safeco Field. Both teams currently sport the same undesirable 6-9 record, but it’s the Mariners who have the far loftier expectations, with several people, including myself, projecting them to win the division, so I simply think they’ll get on that path here. Minnesota is playing relatively well lately in their own right, having won five of eight since an alarming 1-6 start, but I don’t think that can continue on the road against a superior team that is looking to up their sense of urgency and begin fulfilling their potential; they’ve certainly shown signs of that, especially with the distinct emergence of Nelson Cruz. Plus, the Twins will have to deal with the King himself, Felix Hernandez, in game one, and will counter with their own Opening Day starter, Phil Hughes. If Minnesota can somehow steal that game, then maybe there’s potential for them to steal the series, but Hernandez should get the better of Hughes at home with his very own “King’s Court” surrounding the proceedings.
