Monday's Tip Sheet
May 18, 2015
Upcoming Series to Watch
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets
Over the weekend, the Cardinals suffered a rare series loss at home to the Tigers, but after avoiding the sweep last night on Sunday Night Baseball, they still maintained the best record in the National League at 25-12. The Mets did a little more than that, putting an end to their season-high five-game losing streak by capping off the weekend with consecutive wins over the Brewers. Now, to kick off this new week in May, two of the NL’s upper echelon squads will square off in a four-game set at Citi Field.
Could we be seeing a playoff preview right here? There should be no question St. Louis makes its annual postseason push, because that's just what they always do. After all, they're continuing to excel on both sides of the ball, especially with their pitching, as they own baseball’s best team ERA. The Mets, meanwhile, aren’t far behind, as they’ve been led up to this point by their own consistent stellar pitching, and just received a jolt of energy with the arrival of top prospect Noah Syndergaard, who looked good through his first career two starts. That being said, you’d think we might be seeing a series of mostly unders. As for who will prevail in the wins column, that appears to be tough to tell. If the Mets are on the verge of another winning run, the Cards might be in for another surprising series loss. New York is a tremendous 15-4 at home this year, while St. Louis brings a 10-7 road record into this series.
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
It’s usually an interesting get-together when two hard-hitting offenses get together at a point in the season when they’re performing below expectations, as one may springboard out of it, while the other risks falling deeper into a hole. That’s the case we have here for this mid-May four-game set between the Angels and Blue Jays.
The Angels have actually been playing much better as of late, as despite losing the series finale in Baltimore yesterday they’ve won five of their last six to get back over .500 for the first time since the third game of the season. Surprisingly, they’ve accomplished their current run mostly thanks to their pitching, which has allowed three runs or less in all six of those games (producing six straight unders in the process). Toronto, meanwhile, has been going in the opposite direction, carrying a five-game losing streak into this series, and they’ve also lost seven of eight. Their pitching might be considered the main culprit, having yielded four runs or more in all eight of those contests. As a result, and with two loaded lineups, the Angels’ streak of six straight unders looks to be in serious jeopardy. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this series churn out more overs than unders.
Teams to Watch
-- I’ve mentioned the White Sox as a team to watch previously, and while they didn’t quite generate the momentum I anticipated at that point, it appears the club is beginning to hit its stride. Entering the week on a five-game winning streak, including an impressive three-game sweep of the A’s in Oakland (who are much better than their record, by the way), Chicago has stormed to .500 for the first time this season. I had them finishing in second place in the AL Central for 2015 so this current surge doesn’t surprise me, as their offense can be really dangerous. It has the potential to be even better once they figure out how to collectively hit left-handers (.224/.265/.303 opposing southpaws ranks amongst the worst team slash-lines in baseball).
Looking to continue their winning ways, the White Sox open a four-game home series with last-place Cleveland, so they’ll have a fine opportunity to keep it going, especially since they’ve won seven of their past ten home games versus the Indians. Don’t be surprised if this is one of the teams that make an extensive run into the summer months, so you might want to try and tail them early on. They’ll have their ace on the hill in game one, Chris Sale, who is coming off a dominant eight-inning performance his last time out, but so is his opponent for the opener, Indians staff leader Corey Kluber.
-- They were my ‘Team to Watch’ in this very column a week ago, and they’ve been so hot, it bares highlighting the Nationals once again, who continue to be a very profitable ride from multiple angles. One, they continue to be over machines, having scored five or more runs in 11 of their past 13 games. In the process, they’ve registered an outstanding 11-2 record for over bets over that span.
And two, they just keep cashing those money-line and run-line tickets, being 12-3 in their last 15. In 11 of those wins, they won by more than a run, offering better value if you grab them -1.5 against any given opponent, apparently. They’ve surrendered less than four runs in only about half those games, so that goes to show how consistently live their offense has been. And you have to believe their pitching won’t continue at that rate, as even Stephen Strasburg looks like he’s getting back on track, while Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann continue to churn out quality starts (both having seven quality starts in eight tries). The Nats’ emergence should continue.
Fearless Prediction
-- If you're a believer in the "underachieving team instantly steps it up after surprising early midseason firing of their manager" theory, then you might want to consider betting the Marlins for the series against the Diamondbacks. All the components are there: a solid team that showed flashes of consistent winning prior to their current losing streak, and the necessary pieces to get the club back on track. Plus, they're facing another team that's scuffling, Arizona, who must be low on morale after being swept by the lowly Phillies. Owner Jeffrey Loria's tactics are very questionable, and while I thought Mike Redmond was fine as Miami's skipper, this move could prove to be a successful sudden wake-up call for a team that needs it.
