Monday's Tip Sheet
June 1, 2015
New York Yankees at Seattle Mariners | 10:10 p.m. ET
In what probably is the most intriguing matchup on this first night in June, the Yankees and Mariners square off in game one of a three-game set at Safeco Field. It will represent the first time Seattle has met their former top prospect, Michael Pineda (6-2, 3.36 ERA), since the 2012 trade that brought him to the Bronx. Pineda was simply marvelous as a rookie with the Mariners in 2011, when he had a 3.03 ERA through his first 18 starts, a stretch that contributed to him being named to the AL All Star team in that season. Following a period of injuries that largely kept him sidelined until last season, Pineda finally got to pitch for the Yankees in 2014 and was terrific, producing an outstanding 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 13 starts, while putting together a 59/7 K/BB ratio in 76-plus innings pitched. He’s continued his success into this season, and overall, has yielded three runs or less in seven of his ten assignments. The Yankees will especially need him tonight, coming off a series loss in Oakland that saw the club drop three of four over the weekend.
Of course, the Mariners have a proven ace and a former Cy Young winner of their own in Felix Hernandez (8-1, 1.91 ERA), who they’ll counter with in the opener. Hernandez has been enjoying another stellar season thus far, as opponents are only hitting .195 off the 29-year-old right-hander. Furthermore, Hernandez has continued to maintain his high strikeout rate, owning 71 punch-outs, compared to just 15 walks, in 70.2 innings pitched on the season. As you’d expect, Hernandez has been as consistent as anybody, surrendering two runs or less in eight out of ten tries, and he’s lasted six or more innings in all but one of his starts. Like the Yankees, the Mariners are coming off a crucial series loss over the weekend, this one being at home in a four-game set opposing the Indians, which dropped them under .500. As a result, both teams will really want this series to get back on track, and the first game could put offense at a premium. Unsurprisingly, the over/under for tonight’s Pineda vs Hernandez matchup is 6.
Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox | 7:10 p.m. ET
Shockingly, no team in the American League has been hotter than the Minnesota Twins, who went a ridiculous 20-7 in the month of May to skyrocket all the way to the top of the AL Central. They’ll look to keep it going in the first week of June when they begin a series at Fenway Park against the Red Sox, whom they swept last week at home in three games. They’ll begin the proceedings with the surprising Mike Pelfrey (4-1, 2.77 ERA) toeing the rubber in game one, and the former Met has been phenomenal this year after missing just about all of last season. In fact, he’s yielded two runs or less in seven of his nine starts, but his strikeout rate has been low (26 Ks in 52 IP), making it possible that a regression is coming sooner than later. At the same time, he’s allowed just three home runs all year long.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been heading in an opposite direction, after entering May with the same record as Minnesota. Instead, however, they proceeded to go 10-19 for the month, and enter June having lost six of their past seven. In tonight’s series opener, they’ll trot out Clay Buchholz (2-6, 4.33 ERA), who has emerged in recent weeks to become one of Boston’s best starters after the rotation collectively got out to an awful start with the worst team ERA in the bigs in the first month. Buchholz has helped changed that trend, going seven or more innings and yielding two or fewer runs in each of his past three starts, cashing all three unders along the way as well. He could continue trending up, as he does possess a nice 62/16 K/BB ratio in 60 innings of work. Surprisingly, Boston is currently a -160 favorite for this affair.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants | 10:15 p.m. ET
Two of the hottest teams in the National League square off tonight in game one of a three-game set at AT&T Park. The Giants are coming off a red-hot month that saw them go 21-9 in May, the best record in the NL, which has helped not only save their season following a toxic 3-9 start, but has vaulted them all the way up to first place in the rugged NL West in the process. May also saw the return of one of the club’s most important players, Hunter Pence, who has helped San Francisco put together their extensive surge. The Giants will kick things off this evening with Ryan Vogelsong (4-2, 4.24 ERA) in game one, and the right-hander has been relatively solid, especially when you consider he had a 5.73 ERA only two years ago, and almost didn’t crack the rotation entering 2015. He’s coming off an absolutely blistering May, which saw him go 4-0 with a 1.14 ERA in five starts, allowing two runs or less in each outing. He’ll be a +125 underdog in this matchup, potentially making him a quality value bet.
The reason he’s a home ‘dog, despite his sensational month, has much to do with his counterpart this evening, Gerrit Cole (7-2, 2.11 ERA), who has pitched so well that some people already believe he’ll be the starter for the National League when we arrive at the All Star Game in mid-July. Cole also finds himself amongst the league leaders in strikeouts, having logged 70 punch-outs in 64 innings, compared to just 14 walks, and he boasts an impressive 1.09 WHIP. In addition, the former No. 1 overall draft pick has gone 3-0-2 towards the under in his past five starts. Perhaps most impressive of all, Cole has not allowed more than three runs in any of his ten starts, which is why he’s constantly labeled with low over/under lines. For his assignment tonight in the Bay Area, the line is set at 6.5.
Other Monday Notes
-- Archie Bradley (2-2, 5.28 ERA) opens up Arizona’s series tonight with the Atlanta Braves at home, and he’s carrying an interesting streak into his start. After impressively out-dueling Claytn Kershaw in his Major League debut on April 11, the heralded rookie has made six starts, with all six going over the total. He’s allowed four runs or more in all three of his outings since coming off the disabled list on May 16, and tonight he opposes Alex Wood (3-2, 3.50 ERA) in a matchup that features an o/u line of 8.5.
-- Few pitchers have been more consistent than reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom (5-4, 2.71 ERA), who has yielded two runs or less in seven of his ten starts thus far in 2015. He’s coming off an excellent May, finishing up at 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA for the month, and the Mets have won four of his past five starts. On the road in San Diego, he’s a standard -110 versus Andrew Cashner (2-7, 3.00 ERA), who has been much better than his unpleasant win-loss record. Cashner, remember, had his franchise record of 22 consecutive starts at home of allowing less than three earned runs snapped a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still be good, pitching six or more innings in each of his nine outings since Opening Day. The over/under for this one is understandable 6.5.
