Cnotes April's End of the College Basketball Season Final Four !

[CNOTES]

Final Four Betting Trends


March 30, 2015




NCAA Final Four Out


It’s onward to Indy for the Final Four games.


To put the wraps on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Nap Town this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent, dating back as far as 1991 unless noted otherwise.


FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES


#1 Seeds not favored more than 5 points are 17-8 ATS (Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin)


#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 4-1 ATS as a dog (Wisconsin)


#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss (Kentucky)


ACC teams are 6-1 ATS (Duke)


SEC teams are 0-3-1 ATS (Kentucky)


Big 10 dogs are 3-5-1 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)


Teams off a SU dog win are 5-0-1 ATS (Wisconsin)


Dogs who are 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 8-17-1 ATS (Michigan State)


Teams with revenge are 3-10 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)


CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES


#1 Seed favs. are 8-2 ATS


#5 or worse Seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS


Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-2 ATS


Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS


Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 2-6 ATS


Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS


SEC teams are 3-1 ATS


ACC teams are 7-3 ATS


Big 10 teams are 0-5 ATS


COACH ME UP


Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is:
65-19 SU and 41-41-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
48-12 SU and 35-25 ATS vs. Big 10
14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS vs. SEC
2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan


Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
47-14 SU and 35-27-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
17-10 SU and 13-14 ATS vs. ACC
11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS vs. Big 10
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
1-0 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan


Michigan State’s John Tom Izzo is:
46-16 SU and 36-24-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-24 SU and 18-19 ATS vs. ACC
250-122 SU and 206-171-4-1 ATS vs. Big 10
15-4 SU an 12-6-1 ATS vs. SEC
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
1-2 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
12-16 SU and 16-12 ATS vs. Bo Ryan


Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
24-13 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS vs. ACC
189-83 SU and 135-133-4 ATS vs. Big 10
8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS vs. SEC
0-1 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski


There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and Championship games played over the last 26 years.


Enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

 

[CNOTES]

Final Four Betting Outlook


March 30, 2015




The Final Four!

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play


2) Conference play


3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3


2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 NIT, CBI, CIT Results


March 31, 2015




National Invitation Tournament (NIT)
REGION 1 - OLD DOMINION
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 18 Charleston Southern at Old Dominion (-13) 65-56 Underdog-Under (142)
Mar. 18 Green Bay at Illinois State (-2.5) 69-56 Favorite-Under (139.5)
Mar. 17 William & Mary at Tulsa (-7) 70-67 Underdog-Under (142.5)
Mar. 17 UTEP at Murray State (-5.5) 81-66 Favorite-Under (151)
Mar. 23 Murray State (+3) at Tulsa 83-62 Underdog-Over (143)
Mar. 23 Illinois State at Old Dominion (-4.5) 50-49 Underdog-Under (128.5)
Mar. 25 Murray State at Old Dominion (-1) 72-69 Favorite-Over (139)




REGION 2 - RICHMOND
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 18 St. Francis Brooklyn at Richmond (-10) 84-74 Push-Over (132)
Mar. 18 Arizona State (+1.5) at UConn 68-61 Underdog-Under (134.5)
Mar. 17 North Carolina Central at Miami, Fl. (-8.5) 75-71 Underdog-Over (128)
Mar. 17 Illinois at Alabama (-2) 79-58 Favorite-Over (135.5)
Mar. 21 Alabama at Miami, Fl. (-4.5) 73-66 Favorite-Over (135.5)
Mar. 22 Arizona State at Richmond (-4.5) 76-70 (OT) Favorite-Over (136)
Mar. 24 Miami, Fl. (+2.5) at Richmond 63-61 Underdog-Under (133)




REGION 3 - TEMPLE
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 18 Bucknell at Temple (-12.5) 73-67 Underdog-Under (144)
Mar. 17 George Washington (+4.5) at Pittsburgh 60-54 Underdog-Under (135)
Mar. 17 Montana at Texas A&M (-10) 81-64 Favorite-Over (134.5)
Mar. 17 Central Michigan at Louisiana Tech (-6.5) 89-79 Favorite-Over (154.5)
Mar. 22 George Washington at Temple (-4.5) 90-77 Favorite-Over (128.5)
Mar. 23 Louisiana Tech (+3) at Texas A&M 84-72 Underdog-Over (143)
Mar. 25 Louisiana Tech at Temple (-4) - Favorite-Under (146)




REGION 4 - COLORADO STATE
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 18 South Dakota State (+8) at Colorado State 86-76 Underdog-Over (153)
Mar. 18 Vanderbilt (+3) at Saint Mary's 75-64 Underdog-Over (143.5)
Mar. 17 UC Davis at Stanford (-8.5) 77-64 Favorite-Under (151)
Mar. 17 Iona at Rhode Island (-7) 88-75 Favorite-Over (153.5)
Mar. 20 South Dakota State at Vanderbilt (-8.5) 92-77 Favorite-Over (148)
Mar. 22 Rhode Island at Stanford (-5) 74-65 Favorite-Under (143)
Mar. 24 Vanderbilt at Stanford (-4.5) 78-75 Underdog-Over (146)




SEMIFINALS & FINALS
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 31 Miami, Fl. (+1) vs. Temple 60-57 Underdog-Under (138)
Mar. 31 Stanford (-4) vs. Old Dominion 67-60 Favorite-Under (133)
Apr. 2 Miami, Fl. vs. Stanford - -




College Basketball Invitational (CBI)
FIRST ROUND
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 17 Rider at Loyola Chicago (-5.5) 62-59 Underdog-Under (130)
Mar. 18 Gardner-Webb at Colorado (-11) 87-78 Underdog-Over (159)
Mar. 18 Pepperdine at Seattle (+5) 62-45 Underdog-Under (126)
Mar. 18 Stony Brook at Mercer (-2) 72-70 Push-Over (132)
Mar. 18 Eastern Michigan at Louisiana Monroe (+1.5) 71-67 Underdog-Over (131.5)
Mar. 18 Vermont (+6) at Hofstra 85-81 Underdog-Over (154)
Mar. 18 Radford (+1) at Delaware State 78-57 Underdog-Under (154)
Mar. 18 UC Santa Barbara at Oral Roberts (+3) 91-87 Underdog-Over (144.5)




QUARTERFINALS AND SEMIFINALS
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 23 Radford at Vermont (-8.5) 78-71 Underdog-Over (140.5)
Mar. 23 UL Monroe (+4.5) at Mercer 71-69 Underdog-OVer (130.5)
Mar. 23 Oral Roberts at Loyola-Chicago (-6) 86-78 Favorite-Over (141)
Mar. 23 Colorado at Seattle (+5.5) 72-65 Underdog-Under (141.5)
Mar. 25 Vermont at UL-Monroe (+1) 71-65 Underdog-Over (134)
Mar. 25 Seattle at Loyola-Chicago (-10) 63-48 Favorite-Under (135)




FINALS (BEST-OF-THREE)
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 30 Louisiana Monroe at Loyola-Chicago (-5.5) 65-58 Favorite-Under (128.5)
Apr. 1 Loyola-Chicago at Louisiana Monroe - -
Apr. 3 Loyola-Chicago at Louisiana Monroe - -




CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT)
FIRST ROUND
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 16 New Hampshire at NJIT (-6.5) 84-77 Favorite-Over (132)
Mar. 17 Eastern Illinois (+7) at Oakland 97-91 Underdog-Over (147)
Mar. 17 James Madison at USC Upstate (-5.5) 73-72 Underdog-Over (144)
Mar. 17 Bowling Green (-5.5) at Saint Francis (PA) 67-64 Underdog-Under (135)
Mar. 17 Norfolk State at Eastern Kentucky (-10.5) 81-75 Underdog-Over (139)
Mar. 17 UL-Lafayette (-2.5) at Incarnate Word 83-68 Favorite-Under (162)
Mar. 18 UMES at High Point (-8) 70-64 Underdog-Under (149)
Mar. 18 Dartmouth at Canisius (-3) 87-72 Favorite-Over (131.5)
Mar. 18 Texas A&M Corpus Christi (+6.5) at Florida Gulf Coast 75-69 Underdog-Over (135)
Mar. 18 Cleveland State (+1) at Western Michigan 86-57 Underdog-Over (140.5)
Mar. 18 Kent State (+4) at Middle Tennessee 68-56 Underdog-Under (129)
Mar. 18 UNC Wilmington at Sam Houston State (-8) 87-71 Favorite-Over (142)
Mar. 18 Northern Arizona (-2) at Grand Canyon 75-70 Favorite-Under (151)
Mar. 18 IPFW at Evansville (-7) 82-77 Underdog-Over (150)
Mar. 18 Sacramento State (-2) at Portland 73-66 Favorite-Under (150)
Mar. 19 UT Martin (+2.5) at Northwestern State 104-79 Underdog-Over (176)




SECOND ROUND AND QUARTERFINALS
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 20 High Point at Eastern Kentucky (-5.5) 66-65 Underdog-Under (139.5)
Mar. 21 Canisius (+8) at Bowling Green 82-59 Underdog-Over (138)
Mar. 21 Tennessee-Martin (+3.5) at South Carolina Upstate 60-49 Underdog-Under (143)
Mar. 21 UL-Lafayette (+6.5) at Sam Houston State 71-70 Underdog-Under (148.5)
Mar. 21 Northern Arizona (+3.5) at Sacramento State 78-73 Underdog-Over (146)
Mar. 23 Cleveland State at NJIT (+3) 80-77 Underdog-Over (140)
Mar. 23 Evansville (-3) at Eastern Illinois 83-68 Favorite-Over (147)
Mar. 23 Kent State (-3) at Texas A&M Corpus Christi 69-65 Favorite-Under (135.5)
Mar. 25 Tennessee Martin (+6) at Eastern Kentucky 70-69 Underdog-Push (139)
Mar. 26 Evansville (+3) at UL-Lafayette 89-82 Underdog-Over (154)
Mar. 27 Kent State at Northern Arizona (-2) 74-73 (OT) Underdog-Over (137)
Mar. 28 Canisius at NJIT (-2.5) 78-73 Favorite-Over (145)




SEMIFINALS & FINALS
Date Matchup Score ATS Result
Mar. 31 Tennessee Martin at Evansville (-6.5) 79-66 Favorite-Under (148)
Mar. 31 NJIT at Northern Arizona (-4.5) 68-61 Favorite-Under (144)
Apr. 2 Northern Arizona at Evansville - -

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- Golden State is 52-7 when Andrew Bogut plays, 9-6 when he doesn't.

-- Average major league salary will be over $4M this year for first time.

-- On top of that, ballplayers get $100.50 a day in meal money on the road.

-- Serious question: why do college football teams practice in the spring?

-- Gregg Marshall has won nine league titles in 17 years as a head coach.

-- It is supposed to be 61 in Albany tomorrow; last time it was above 50 was December 27. This is not an April Fools' joke, at least I hope it isn't.


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Happy April Fools' Day!!!!

13) Cubs sent star prospect Kris Bryant to AAA, so they can keep him under team control for another year down the road; thats their choice, but don't tell me you're trying to win if you send one of your best guys to the minors, even if only for two or three weeks. How many pennant races come down to the last week or the last day of the season?

12) Mark McLemore played 19 years in the big leagues, hitting .259 with a .349 on-base percentage in 7,239 plate appearances, so he knows a lot and is now a TV analyst for the Rangers, but he claimed the Cubs sending Bryant down was "so he could work on some things", which is total BS. McLemore has kind of a condescending tone that a lot of former athletes have-- he should lose it if he wants to be good on television.

11) Does every NBA team visit the White House? The 76ers were there this week; think that practice will continue after the 2016 election?

10) Miami 60, Temple 57-- Teams combined to go 8-40 from arc in brickfest that Temple led by five at half. Miami played without PG Rodriguez for third game in a row, which will help their young players next season.

9) Stanford 67, Old Dominion 60-- Cardinal led 25-4, blew the lead, then pulled away late; ODU sub Ross was 7-7, rest of team was 14-54, with star Freeman a 6-24 disaster. Stanford-Miami is your NIT final Thursday night.

8) 7,183 fans at Madison Square Garden for that twinbill; it is funny that the media refers to MSG as the "mecca of basketball", when they had 5,583 fans in Flagstaff, Arizona for the NJIT-Northern Arizona game, and Dayton annually puts 10,000+ fans in their arena for the NCAA play-in games.

7) 35 of the 99 golfers at The Masters this week didn't go to college; of the 64 who did, six went to Georgia. No other school has more than three.

6) I'm not criticizing DePaul for re-hiring Dave Leitao, but it is ludicrous that the Blue Demons paid a search firm to find a new coach, then came back with the name of a guy who coached that same team ten years ago.
What exactly do athletic directors do? Go on the Interweb, look up names of some good teams and find out who the assistant coaches are-- its not hard!!!!

5) Turner Sports needs to promote play-by-play guy Kevin Calabro to a more prominent role; he is very, very good. Calabro was the Sonics' announcer when they played in Seattle- he does work on the Pac-12 Network and does stuff on ESPN Radio but he is so much better than most of the play-by-play guys that work hoops now.

4) Baltimore Ravens signed QB Matt Schaub to back up Joe Flacco, which is a sure sign of the QB shortage the NFL has right now.

3) San Diego hired alum Lamont Smith to replace the fired Bill Grier as its coach; Smith was a recruiter at New Mexico, won't be as good a tactician as Grier is, but he'll get better players. Toreros' brass must be tired of getting whacked by San Diego State every December, then being a middling team in a pretty good WCC. We'll see.

2) Seahawks are really going to let Russell Wilson play out his rookie contract, with chance he could eventually walk as a free agent? Why would you purposely tick off your starting QB? Wilson walked out on NC State once, he'll do it again. You don't want to go hunting for a new QB in this day and age.

1) Remember, its April Fools Day!!!! Don't believe everything you hear today, except in this space, of course.....

 

[CNOTES]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

Opening Day is a big deal for MLB clubs and brings with it plenty of jitters for Big League teams, some more than others. The Oakland Athletics seem to let those season debut butterflies get the best of them, losing 10 straight games on Opening Day. Oakland kicked off last year’s campaign with a 2-0 loss to Cleveland at home.

The A’s have been outscored 50-13 in that 10-season Opening Day drought. Oakland has had the misfortune of beginning the season against the Seattle Mariners and their staff ace Felix Hernandez in half of those games, including four straight years from 2010 to 2013. This time around, Oakland opens the 2015 season at home to the Texas Rangers Monday. Can they avoid another Opening Day letdown?

Lookahead spot

The Chicago Bulls are clinging to third place in the Eastern Conference, just a game up on Toronto in the standings. The Bulls have a monster matchup ahead on the schedule this weekend, visiting LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers on Easter Sunday. But before then, the Bulls have a home date versus the Detroit Pistons Friday.

With the holiday weekend, the Bulls will be trying to cram in as much family time as they can around these games, which can often leave players unfocused – especially when you’re up against a non-contender like Detroit and staring down a showdown with the Cavs. The Pistons knocked off the Bulls 107-91 on March 21 and won 100-91 on February 20 with both games coming in Motown.

Schedule spot

The Washington Capitals are fighting to stay in the postseason picture, currently sitting in seventh in the Eastern Conference standings. They’re just three points ahead of No. 8 Boston and six points past Ottawa. The Capitals have a home stand against Carolina Tuesday then hit the road for a short three-game trip that could make or break their season.
Washington travels to Montreal Thursday to play the first-place Canadiens, then heads to Canada’s capital for a showdown with the Senators Saturday. The Capitals complete their 3-in-4 nights trek Sunday with a final stop in Detroit to take on a Red Wings team currently in sixth but tied with Washington at 92 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 1


Loyola-Chicago vs Louisiana-Monroe

Game 525-526
April 1, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
59.300
Louisiana-Monroe
57.726
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Loyola-Chicago
by 1 1/2
120
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisiana-Monroe
by 2 1/2
125
Dunkel Pick:
Loyola-Chicago
(+2 1/2); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-IL (23 - 13) at LA-MONROE (24 - 13) - 4/1/2015, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOYOLA-IL is 1-0 against the spread versus LA-MONROE over the last 3 seasons
LOYOLA-IL is 1-0 straight up against LA-MONROE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 1

CBI games (best-of-3 series, Loyola leads, 1-0)
Loyola (-5.5) won Game 1 of this series 65-58 at home Monday, in game they trailed 26-24 at half; Ramblers shot 56% inside arc, have edge in depth- UL-Monroe played only two subs for total of 23:00. Warhawks won five of last seven games, winning last three home games by 3-4-6 points; they're an experienced (#62) team that is bit better on defense than offense. Loyola won three of last four road games, but their last road game was Feb 25. Sun Belt teams are 6-2 vs spread this postseason, 2-0 as favorites. MVC teams are 9-5 vs spread, 2-0 as underdogs.




NCAAB

Wednesday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
LOYOLA OF CHICAGO vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
Loyola of Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Louisiana-Monroe is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 12 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Best six, worst six major league teams in one-run games last season.

San Diego, 33-21 Cincinnati, 22-38

Baltimore, 32-23 Houston, 17-28

St Louis, 32-23 Seattle, 18-27

LA Dodgers, 25-20 Toronto, 15-20

LA Angels, 27-22 Oakland, 21-28

Milwaukee, 23-19 Arizona, 23-30


**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Gregg Marshall stays at Wichita State, which came up with a $3.3M salary to keep their coach out of Alabama. Basketball is serious business.

12) Where does the Crimson Tide turn now? Steve Prohm? Richard Pitino? If you take a new job, no matter what the money is like, you better be sure you can win there or else you're fired three years later. Or sooner.

11) Speaking of which, the Cubs fired Rich Renteria last fall after one season as manager, when Joe Maddon became available. Would love to see a TV network scoop Renteria up so we can get his insights on what managing the Cubs is like and what getting the boot after only one season is like.

10) Curious to me how Dave Martinez is the only coach who went from Tampa to Chicago with Joe Maddon; most of the rest are still with the Rays.

9) NFL Draft is four weeks from tonight and the top two QBs aren't going to be there. The more I think about Jameis Winston, the more I think I'd pass on taking him. Too many questions; I'm thinking Jimbo Fisher insulated him a lot from public scrutiny, and his NFL coach ain't going to be doing that. Life in the fishbowl can be unpleasant if you struggle on the field.

8) Supposedly, 12 Florida State kids might get drafted this year, which means Coach Fisher has a rebuilding job ahead of him, including starting a new QB. Winston lost one game in two seasons as a starter; he'll be hard to replace.

7) I'm not a morning person, but one of the best things about mornings are sausage biscuits with egg at McDonald's. Sadly, they stop serving them at 10:30, which is way too early for this late riser, but there is hope- McDonald's is going to start testing serving 24-hour breakfast in San Diego this spring.

If this goes well and they start serving breakfast 24 hours a day, the way Jack in the Box does out west, it will be tremendous. Sausage biscuits are terrific!!!!

6) People bet on exhibition baseball games; Pirates played the Orioles on the road last night-- Baltimore used a DH, while Pittsburgh didn't, since their pitchers have to bat next week. Game ended in a 3-3 tie, but if you bet the Orioles, you had an edge.

5) There have been 300+ college basketball transfers; there are 351 D-I teams, so you do the math on how many kids make the wrong decision, or become unhappy with their playing time. Georgia Sate's Ron Hunter says he recruits some kids he knows he can't get, on hope that if they decide to transfer, they'll consider Georgia State then..

4) Speaking of Hunter, how do some of these teams hire new coaches without giving him an interview? He's won at IUPUI and Georgia State, not exactly Kentucky/UCLA.

3) Over/under total for Mets and Bronx Bombers are both 81.5; when was last time the Bronx total wasn't higher than the Mets' expectations?

2) Chris Mullin is likeable; he was a great player, enjoyed his work on TV, hope he wins at St John's, but wasn't it a little weird how prominent Lou Carnesecca was at Mullin's press conference? Carnesecca is 90, has been out of coaching 23 years-- all that went thru my mind watching the press conference was that Carnesecca is still pulling strings behind the scenes, which if true, is an odd way to run a business.

1) Quote of the Day, part II: "20th pick in this (NFL) Draft is the same as the 50th pick, to me." unnamed NFL scout to themmqb.com. All of which means the 2nd round could be almost as much fun as the first round.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 2


StanfordvsMiami (Fla.)
Game 707-708
April 2, 2015 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
66.955
Miami (Fla.)
63.543
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 3 1/2
140
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 1 1/2
134 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-1 1/2); Over


Northern ArizonavsEvansville

Game 709-710
April 2, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Arizona
55.376
Evansville
65.275
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Evansville
by 10
154 1/2
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Evansville
by 7 1/2
141 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Evansville
(-7 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 2

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STANFORD (23 - 13) vs. MIAMI (25 - 12) - 4/2/2015, 9:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ARIZONA (23 - 14) at EVANSVILLE (23 - 12) - 4/2/2015, 7:00 PM There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 2

NIT games
Stanford is 12-3 outside Pac-12, winning four straight in this tournament after going 4-8 in last 12 pre-NIT games. Cardinal lost by 11 to Duke in its only ACC game; they've got good size, experience and shoot ball well but blew 21-point lead to ODU in semis Tuesday. Miami is 14-3 outside ACC, with all four wins in this event by seven or less points. ACC teams are 12-11 vs spread this postseason, 6-2 as underdogs; Pac-12 favorites are 6-5 this postseason. Miami PG Rodriguez missed last three games.

CBI games (best-of-3 series, Loyola wins, 2-0)

CIT tournament
Evansville is 14-2 outside MVC, which won CBI (Loyola) last nite; Purple Aces won first two home games in this tournament by 5-13 points. Long trip, quick turnaround for Northern Arizona after they won at home in front of 5,800+ fans Tuesday, quite an event; Lumberjacks are 8-8 outside Big Sky, 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with only win vs #77 St Mary's in December- they've got five seniors in rotation. Big Sky teams are 4-3 vs spread this postseason, 1-2 as a dog. Missouri Valley teams are 7-5 against spread as a favorite.




NCAAB

Thursday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
NORTHERN ARIZONA vs. EVANSVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Northern Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Northern Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Evansville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Evansville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
STANFORD vs. MIAMI
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Thursday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NIT Finals Betting Preview: Stanford vs. Miami
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stanford Cardinal vs. Miami Hurricanes (+1.5, 134.5)

Chasson Randle is one win away from bookending his Stanford career with NIT championships and can complete his senior season in style with a victory against Miami (Fla.) on Thursday at Madison Square Garden. Randle became the Cardinal's all-time leading scorer on Tuesday in a semifinal win against Old Dominion as he scored 24 points to move his four-year total to 2,350 points, passing Todd Lichti's mark that stood for more than 25 years. Randle was Stanford's leading scorer as a freshman on its 2011-12 team that defeated Minnesota in the NIT championship game.

The Cardinal are aiming for their third NIT championship - they also won it in 1991 - while the Hurricanes had never even made the semifinals in 11 previous NIT appearances. Miami slipped past Temple in Tuesday's first semifinal behind junior guard Sheldon McClellan, who registered 16 points and 11 boards. The Hurricanes likely will not have point guard Angel Rodriguez (wrist), who has missed the last three games, and also will be without center Tonye Jekiri, who suffered a concussion in the first half against the Owls.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Both the spread and the total have yet to move off their opening numbers of Miami +1.5 and 134.5 respectively.

ABOUT STANFORD (23-13 SU, 16-19-1 ATS, 17-18-1 O/U): Randle is hardly a one-man show for Stanford, as he averages 19.4 points to join Anthony Brown (14.9) and Stefan Nastic (13.5) in double figures, and the senior trio combined for 55 of the team's 67 points against Old Dominion. “For me to win an NIT championship, for our seniors, (if) we went out on top and won our last game ... that would be very special for us,” Randle told reporters. “For the younger guys, they will have something to hang their hats on for next year going into next season.” Brown is 6-of-9 from 3-point range in the last two games and has made 44.3 percent from the behind the arc on the season.

ABOUT MIAMI (25-12 SU, 17-17-1 ATS, 14-16-2 O/U): The Hurricanes continue to win on the defensive end, as they have captured seven of eight while holding their opponents to 62.3 points during that stretch. However, not having Jekiri (8.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 51 blocks) could be a major blow on Thursday as the team's next best rebounder is McClellan (4.7) and no one else on the squad has more than 17 blocks. "We've been like a M.A.S.H. unit," Miami coach Jim Larranaga said to reporters. "But somehow, some way, these guys find a way to stick together."

TRENDS:

*Cardinal are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
*Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
*Over is 7-2 in Cardinal last 9 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a S.U. win.

 

[CNOTES]

VCU's Smart takes Texas hoops job

April 2, 2015

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) - Shaka Smart is leaving Virginia Commonwealth to coach the Texas Longhorns.

VCU sports information director Scott Day confirmed to reporters gathered at the campus Thursday night that Smart was making the move. Smart met with VCU players earlier in the evening at the Siegel Center, the team's home arena, and at least one player was seen crying when he left.

Texas athletic director Steve Patterson flew to Richmond on Thursday to close the deal.

Smart, who has won at least 26 games in each of his six seasons at VCU, has been one of the hottest names in college coaching since leading the Rams to the Final Four in 2011. Patterson has zeroed in on bringing Smart to Texas immediately after firing former Longhorns coach Rick Barnes last weekend.

Terms of Smart's contract were not immediately released and VCU said a statement would be released Friday. Barnes made $2.62 million last season. Smart made $1.8 million with the Rams.

The coach slipped into the building Thursday without speaking to the media gathered. VCU players were escorted from the meeting by university public relations and did not comment.

At VCU, Smart took over a program that had had great success under Jeff Capel, and then Anthony Grant. Smart hopes to avoid the pitfalls at Texas that his predecessors encountered when they left to take over programs at universities considered ''football schools.''

Capel lasted five years at Oklahoma before being fired, and Grant spent six at Alabama before he was dismissed.

By leaving before May 1, Smart owes VCU a $500,000 buyout. His contract also contains a provision that if he became a head coach at another institution, that school would have to play VCU in a home-and-home series, or pay VCU $250,000.

Smart is bolting for a Texas program that hasn't been able to unseat Kansas atop the Big 12. But the Longhorns also boast the wealthiest athletic department in the country and easy access to some of the nation's most fertile recruiting grounds in Dallas and Houston.

Barnes led Texas to 16 NCAA Tournaments in 17 seasons but his teams haven't made it out of the first weekend since 2008. Texas officials declined comment on Smart's hiring Thursday night.

Barnes' best years came from 2003-2008 when Texas made its first Final Four in more than 50 years and twice more reached the tournament's final eight. Texas also earned the program's first No. 1 ranking in the 2009-2010 season.

But the program had plateaued and the early-round exits in the tournament started to mount, despite rosters full of future NBA talent.

Smart is sure to energize Texas.

Under him, the Rams won the CBI postseason tournament in his first season. But he really became a hot coaching commodity when VCU made its monumental run in the NCAA Tournament the following year. The Rams went from being a questionable selection, barely getting a bid and playing in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, to beating five major-conference schools to reach the Final Four.

The Rams have been back in the NCAA Tournament each of the past four seasons, but were eliminated in the round of 32 in 2012 and 2013 and lost their first game in overtime each of the past two seasons.

Beyond the Final Four run, this year might have been Smart's best coaching job at VCU.

The Rams lost Briante Weber, the leader of their ''havoc'' defensive style, on Jan. 31 to a knee injury, and played the last month and a half with scoring leader Treveon Graham bothered by a high left ankle sprain, sometimes even sidelined.

VCU (26-10) lost six of 10 late in the season, enduring its first three-game slide in Smart's six seasons, before winning five straight, including four in four days, to win the Atlantic 10 title.

Smart has led VCU to at least 26 wins in six consecutive seasons, a feat matched only by Duke. With the interest he has generated in basketball, a $25 million basketball practice facility is under construction and scheduled to be ready for use in the fall.

 

[CNOTES]

Marshall, Wichita State reach new deal

April 2, 2015

Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall agreed to terms on a new contact, choosing to remain with the Missouri Valley powerhouse after receiving overtures from Alabama.

Terms of the agreement, which was reached late Wednesday, were not disclosed because the final contract still must be signed. It is expected to be a significant raise from the base salary of $1.85 million that Marshall was making on his previous seven-year rollover contract.

Marshall has led the Shockers to four straight NCAA tournaments, including a trip to the Final Four in 2013. Wichita State lost to Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 this past season.

The 52-year-old coach has received interest from big-name programs before, including North Carolina State and Missouri. But he has almost always turned them down - Wichita State was able to finally pry him away from Winthrop after nine seasons, and that was eight years ago.

''I've said how content and happy I am at Wichita State over and over and over,'' Marshall said last week, when the Alabama interest began to circulate. ''At the same time, I don't bury my head in the sand if a tremendous offer comes along. We look at it as a family, and that's something we've dealt with for 17 years.''

The Crimson Tide fired Anthony Grant two weeks ago, and athletic director Bill Battle almost immediately focused on Marshall as his replacement. Battle flew to Wichita this week, spending an entire afternoon making his best pitch - believed to be more than $4 million per year.

Marshall was considering a trip to the Alabama campus in Tuscaloosa later this week, but he instead chose to remain with the Shockers after agreeing to a reworked contract.

''I fully respect his decision and wish him and his family all the best,'' Battle said in a statement late Wednesday. ''My objective in this search is focused on one goal: to get the best person available to lead the Alabama men's basketball program.''

One of the big drawbacks in Tuscaloosa may have been the clout of the Alabama football team, which tends to dwarf the basketball program. Marshall's team is the spotlight program at Wichita State, where there has not been a football program since the 1980s.

There are other benefits to remaining with the Shockers, too.

For one thing, the program is already established. Point guard Fred VanVleet and shooting guard Ron Baker, two of the best players in the nation, are expected to return for their senior seasons. And after a period of sustained success, Marshall has reeled in his best recruiting class yet, headlined by four-star forward Markis McDuffie.

Then there's the support. Wichita State has several well-heeled boosters who ensure the program has everything it needs to compete, including chartered jets for recruiting trips and game travel. Koch Arena is one of the best homecourt advantages in college hoops, and Shockers fans have snapped up every ticket available in the arena for years.

Throw in the fact that Wichita State knocked Kansas from the NCAA Tournament and it's hardly surprising that school administrators would do everything possible to keep Marshall in town.

''It could be the last job I ever have. I could retire from there,'' Marshall said during a recent interview. ''Probably 13 of the last 17 years, we've had decisions to make, but I've had two jobs in that amount of time.''

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky looking to do what UNLV couldn't

April 2, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Twenty-four years ago, UNLV arrived in Indianapolis for a coronation disguised as a Final Four.

The Runnin' Rebels were a college basketball juggernaut. They hadn't lost all season. In fact, they hadn't lost for 45 straight games, a streak that started with a run in the previous season to a national championship.

UNLV, led by Jerry Tarkanian, the towel-chewing defensive genius, arrived in Indianapolis needing two wins to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976.

This week, Kentucky arrived in Indianapolis for a coronation disguised as a Final Four.

The Wildcats are a college basketball juggernaut. They haven't lost all season.

Kentucky, led by John Calipari, a coach who has turned recruiting into an art form, arrived in Indianapolis needing two wins to become the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in 1976.

The Wildcats face Wisconsin on Saturday in the national semifinals. That was the round in which UNLV's undefeated dreams were dashed by Duke, a team the Runnin' Rebels had beaten by 30 points in the championship game a year earlier. Duke, which plays Michigan State on Saturday, could get another chance to ruin a perfect run at the title, but that is looking way down a three-day road.

''I'll never have a group of players like this again,'' Tarkanian, who died on Feb. 11, said the night of the 79-77 loss to Duke, a result that stunned the sports world. ''You only get a team like this once in your career. This was a very special group of kids.

''I'm just sick,'' he said. ''It meant so much to these kids. I'm just hurting inside.''

When the game ended, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski had his own problem. He had to get his team to settle down after the upset because the Blue Devils still had a game Monday night for the national championship.

''I thought all week we had a chance but I wasn't going to be Joe Namath and say anything like that,'' Krzyzewski said 24 years ago. ''I thought if we could fight for 40 minutes we could win, not knowing if the kids could handle it. UNLV plays with such ease and we play with so much emotion.''

UNLV won its games by an average of 26.7 points per game. Only two games were decided by less than 12 points, a 7-point win over Arkansas in a 1-vs.-2 matchup and an 8-point victory over Georgetown in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

''I remember in practice, Coach K had us practicing five against seven, to get used to their speed and their quickness,'' Grant Hill, a freshman starter on that Duke team, said Thursday in Indianapolis where he will serve as a game analyst for CBS. ''We had a game plan, we'd been in a number of close games, we won some, some we didn't, but we had that experience, and they had not been in many close games, so our thing was let's hit them early, let them know we're here, we're going to play, and let's just manage the game and keep it close, and if it's close, the pressure is going to be all on them. That was our comfort zone, how we played all year.''

UNLV's starting lineup included first-round draft picks Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Greg Anthony. It also had Anderson Hunt and George Ackles. All were upperclassmen.

Kentucky's roster is so deep scuba gear is recommended. Nine outstanding underclassmen who have all committed to ignoring minutes for wins and it's anybody's guess how many of them will be first-round NBA draft picks. Eight of the nine players in the rotation are averaging between 5.6 and 11.0 points per game. Eight players have been Kentucky's leading scorer in a game this season. The Wildcats did have three game decided by six or fewer points, but their average margin of victory was almost 21 points per game.

In the Midwest Regional semifinal, Kentucky destroyed West Virginia 78-39. Dominating was an understatement.

''They were what I thought they were,'' West Virginia coach Bob Huggins said. ''That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against. And when they're making shots, there's nobody going to beat them.''

Similar words were spoken 24 years earlier by Arkansas coach Nolan Richardson after the 1-2 matchup when he was asked what it would take to beat the Runnin' Rebels.

''Play Detroit, the Lakers, one of those teams,'' he said. ''I've only been on the college level 11 years, but they are the best team I've ever seen.''

Hill said UNLV of 1991 and Kentucky of 2015 have some similarities, but there are differences.

''You look at the record and that conjures up memories of Vegas,'' Hill said. ''I don't think (UNLV) had any close games. Kentucky has been in close games. And if you recall, UNLV had won the year before, killed Duke in the finals, and then they brought everybody back. They were older. They were seniors. They were upperclassmen. I think that's one of the differences.

''I've heard people say they think Kentucky will lose. I think it's 70-30 from what I've seen that people think Kentucky will win. But I don't think anybody was thinking that Vegas would lose back in `91. I mean, the only people who thought we would win were on our team. I know my parents didn't think so.'

 

[CNOTES]

Raftery brings 'Onions!' to Final Four

April 2, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - The voice was always unmistakable to Grant Hill, whether he was watching a game on television or listening over the radio during his formative years in suburban Washington, D.C.

The wit and wisdom. The tenor and tone.

The catchphrases.

''He's been developing those for a while,'' Hill said with a laugh, gazing across a conference table at Bill Raftery, their 73-year-old source lounging against a high-backed chair.

''I guess I'm not as creative or as humorous as my partner.''

Yes, they are partners now, all these years later. Hill and Raftery are part of a new-look broadcast crew for this year's Final Four, teaming up with longtime play-by-play voice Jim Nantz to bring Saturday night's national semifinals to what could be a record-breaking TV audience.

''We're just three friends talking about the game,'' Hill said, ''and I don't know if that's how it comes across, but that's how it feels. So it's really cool.''

Hill will be broadcasting the Final Four for the first time, and coincidentally, in the same city where he helped lead Duke to the national championship. And for the first time, Raftery will get to bring ''Onions!'' to the TV side after more than three decades in the business.

''When they called me, I was taken aback, to be honest,'' Raftery said, ''because there were so many good choices. I guess if you stick around long enough, they'll call your number.''

The new partnership was born out of necessity.

Steve Kerr had taken a coaching job with the Golden State Warriors, forcing CBS and partner Turner Sports to find at least one replacement. That wound up becoming two when Greg Anthony, who was part of the team a year ago, was accused of soliciting a prostitute.

With his Final Four pedigree and natural charisma, Hill was an easy choice. Raftery was the sentimental pick for the other spot, the ageless wonder who had earned his stripes.

Raftery's long and circuitous road to the center-court seat began when he left a coaching job at Seton Hall for a part-time broadcasting position in 1981. It was a groundbreaking move back in those days, when sports television was in its infancy and the thought that broadcast rights to the Final Four would someday command billions a farfetched dream.

He worked for a bank for many years to help make ends meet, but his uncanny ability to spin a phrase quickly made Raftery a popular broadcaster. CBS eventually hired him, as did ESPN, and for more than two decades he was the voice of the New Jersey Nets.

There, he had a chance to call games featuring Hill, by then an All-Star in the NBA.

Raftery insists his catchphrases just happen. They aren't something that he manufactures in his hotel room the night before a game, or that he dreams up in an elevator and then stashes away for future use. They are spontaneous bursts of emotion, genuine excitement that somehow seems to reach right through the TV or radio and embrace the audience.

''I've always been around some pretty funny people,'' Raftery said. ''I think the biggest thing was when I started doing it, I was just trying to get out of the play-by-play person's way.''

In other words, Raftery had a mere moment to make his mark. Pithy became imperative.

Over the years, those catchphrases became part of the college basketball lexicon, kitschy but not quite cliche. How is a team starting out defensively? ''Man-to-man!'' Or maybe more accurately, ''Mantoman!'' Players don't drive to the basket so much as they ''take it to the tin!'' And why bank a shot off the backboard when you can score ''with a kiss!''

''A lot of these were just, get in and get out,'' Raftery said. ''Not much more to it.''

Hill sheepishly admits that he's been honing his own catchphrases. Reluctantly, he even gave a few of them a test drive before unveiling them for millions on television.

''I've been working on one, kind of getting into the paint, getting wet,'' Hill said. ''Getting messy. Like I said, I'm not as creative or humorous as my partner.''

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action

April 2, 2015


MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (27-11) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (33-4)

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – Final Four
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5.0, Total: 138

No. 1 seed Duke takes on No. 7 seed Michigan State, as coaching legends Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo lead their teams into the Final Four for the 12th time combined in the past 20 seasons.

The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans face off in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 1998 (and the second time in the Final Four). The Blue Devils and Spartans have played nine times in total over that span, and Duke is 8-1 SU (3-5-1 ATS). Coach K’s one loss to Tom Izzo was a regional final in 2005 where the Blue Devils lost as 4-point favorites.

Duke and Michigan State’s most recent meeting was Nov. 18 of this season, with the Blue Devils coming out on top 81-71, covering the 8.5-point spread. This game, also played in Indiana (Banker’s Life Fieldhouse) was the second game of the season for the Spartans (third for the Blue Devils). Both teams shot over 50% from the field with Duke’s Quinn Cook and Jahlil Okafor combining for 36 points on 15-for-22 from the field. Michigan State held a +10 advantage on the glass, but shot only 5-for-20 from three (compared to Duke’s 7-for-14 from three).

Duke is 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS) in its past 10 games, while Michigan State is 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) in that same span. Both the Blue Devils and Spartans have covered (4-0 ATS) in their respective tournament games to date. Duke took care of No. 2 seed Gonzaga (66-52) as a 1.5-point favorite to reach this point, while Michigan State knocked off No. 4 seed Louisville (76-69) as a 2-point favorite. The total has gone Under in six of Duke’s past eight games, while it’s gone Over in eight of Michigan State’s past 11 games.

Michigan State rolls into this meeting as a much different team than they were in November. As Tom Izzo-coached teams so often do, the Spartans are peaking at the perfect time. An issue for Michigan State, however, will be making Duke’s backcourt uncomfortable. To outrebound Duke in November by 10 and still lose by 10 points, the Spartans need to look no further than the fact that they didn’t force one turnover out of Duke guards Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones. Duke also held a huge edge at the free throw line (20-26 FTM), as Michigan State committed 22 fouls to Duke’s 16. Izzo has the Spartans playing their best defensive basketball of the season, as all four Michigan State tournament opponents have shot worse than 36.5% FG. Duke comes in with the 3rd ranked field goal offense in the country, and shot 54% against Michigan State in November, although it’s notable that Duke has struggled (by their standards) in their past two tournament games from the field, shooting 44% and 38% respectively.

The Spartans are led by their trio of stars, senior G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 2.2 3PM), junior G Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 4.4 APG) and senior F Branden Dawson (12.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 55% FG). Trice has taken the scoring burden head-on in the tournament, leading the Spartans in three of their four wins while averaging 19 points per game and hitting 3.3 threes per game. Trice is also shooting an impressive 89% from the line after hitting just 69% over the regular season. Valentine has been more aggressive on offense in the Spartans’ most recent two victories, taking 32 shots en route to 33 points. (After taking just 15 shots in their opening round wins). Valentine also has racked up 18 assists with only 5 turnovers in four tournament games. Dawson has scored single digits in his past two contests, but boasts 11-rebound performances in each game (while also blocking four shots versus Louisville).

G Bryn Forbes (8.6 PPG) has been a key offensive contributor for the Spartans off the bench, averaging 29 MPG in the tournament and making 53% of his threes (2.3 3PM) in that span.

Amidst all of the superlatives Duke has racked up, whether it be for their fifth-in-the-nation scoring offense (79.5 PPG), which shoots 50.2% from the field (3rd in NCAA), or their ever-climbing offensive efficiency as they’ve played effective offense while controlling pace in the tournament (1.2 points per-possession, 2nd in NCAA), the most important vehicle to Duke reaching the Final Four has been its defensive efficiency.

Early in ACC conference play, all that was talked about when mentioning Duke was its much-maligned defense in losses to Miami and North Carolina State. Duke even went to a gimmick 2-3 zone defense to try and stop the bleeding. Now, here they are in the tournament and haven’t given up more than 0.89 points per-possession in any of their four games, while holding one of the best offenses in the country (Gonzaga) to 52 points.

G Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 2.8 3PM), C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG) and F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) have all been stalwarts in Duke’s tournament success. Okafor has not quite been his dominant self in the tournament with teams selling out to double him in the post, but he’s still managed 15 points per game on 66% from the field, and has contributed two blocks per game on defense. Cook has played fantastic defense in the tournament, neutralizing Utah’s Delon Wright and Gonzaga’s Kevin Pangos, while scoring 14.5 points per game himself. Winslow has been a ball of fire on defense, averaging 9.5 rebounds per game (double figures in three of four) along with 1.5 steals and 1.8 blocks per game.

G Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) has been steady, but his heroics haven’t been needed to this point. Jones did score 15 points with six assists versus Gonzaga in his best performance of the tournament.

WISCONSIN BADGERS (35-3) vs. KENTUCKY WILDCATS (38-0)

Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
NCAA Tournament – Final Four
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Kentucky -5.0, Total: 132

After a scare against Notre Dame, undefeated Kentucky looks to continue their magical season in a Final Four rematch from 2014 versus Wisconsin.

Kentucky and Wisconsin have been here before, and it resulted in one of the better tournament games in recent memory, a 74-73 Final Four win for the Wildcats (who were favored by 1) on a heroic Aaron Harrison three pointer. The 5-point spread marks a tie for the lowest amount that Kentucky has been favored this season (Dec. 27 at Louisville) and is the first time that the Wildcats have been less than a double-digit favorite since Mar. 3 at Georgia. Kentucky defeated a Notre Dame team (68-66) in the regional final to get to this point, failing to cover at -11.

Wisconsin will go into its second straight game as an underdog, having beaten Arizona at +1.5 to send Bo Ryan to his second straight Final Four and the third Final Four in Wisconsin history. The Badgers have never played in the championship game.

John Calipari’s Wildcats will be looking to return to the championship game after losing the title game to Connecticut last season. Calipari will be looking for his second NCAA title in his fifth Final Four appearance. Kentucky’s program will be looking for its 9th NCAA title with two more victories in Indianapolis. Kentucky is 1-3 ATS in its four tournament games and 5-5 ATS in its past 10 games. The Wildcats are 3-2 ATS in games where they are single-digit favorites this season and 19-18-1 ATS overall.

While not the length of Kentucky’s season-long streak, Wisconsin is 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) in their past 10 games. The Badgers are 20-17-1 ATS overall this season. Wisconsin is also 4-0 ATS in its tournament history when playing a No. 1 seed. The total for six of Kentucky’s past eight games has been Under, while the total has been Over for seven of Wisconsin’s past ten games.

Wisconsin gets the Final Four rematch that it may, or may not have wanted. The faces for the opposing Wildcats will have changed some, but one Aaron Harrison still remains, as the protagonist for the Badgers’ exit in 2014. Wisconsin has a better offense this time around, as C Frank Kaminsky (18.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 57% FG), F Sam Dekker (13.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 53% FG) and F Nigel Hayes (12.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 50% FG) are all much-improved players since last March. Graduated G Ben Brust is the only Badger lost of key players from last season’s loss. The Badgers were able to successfully convert 19-of-20 from the free throw line to stay within striking distance of Kentucky last season, but only got eight points and five rebounds in a quiet night from star Kaminsky in the loss.

Kaminsky and Dekker enter the Final Four playing extremely good basketball – in Dekker’s case (21.8 PPG, 60% FG, 3.3 3PM/48% 3PT) the best basketball of his life. Without Dekker’s huge shot-making against Arizona (27 points, 8-for-11 FG, 5-for-6 3PT) with contested three’s in big moments, the Badgers would very likely be watching the Final Four from Madison, Wisconsin.

Kaminsky contributed a game-high 29 points versus Arizona, and has really upped his production going to the basket and drawing contact, averaging 6.5 made free throws per game (up from 3.6 FTM/G) in four tournament games. If Kaminsky can get the talented and imposing Kentucky big men in foul trouble, it’d really turn the tables in Wisconsin’s favor to reach the title game.

Wisconsin’s offense is very similar, from a pace and efficiency standpoint (1.22 points per-possession, 1st in NCAA) to Notre Dame’s. They don’t turn the ball over (7.1 TO/G, 1st in NCAA), don’t foul, and always make the extra pass. They feature the three quite as much, but Kentucky was hurt just as much by Zach Auguste and lapses in defensive rotations due to a patient offense than anything else. What should make this game interesting is that the Badgers have the size that the Fighting Irish lacked to compete on defense against Kentucky.

Unsung backcourt mates G Bronson Koenig (8.6 PPG, 42% 3PT, still undefeated as starter) and G Josh Gasser (6.9 PPG, 1.3 3PT) have to be accounted for due to their ability to knock down open jumpers when the defense collapses on Wisconsin’s talented frontcourt. Gasser hit big shots en route to 10 points against Arizona in the Elite Eight.

Kentucky looked human for the first time in a long while as they desperately watched Notre Dame’s Jerian Grant sail a three point attempt to blemish its perfect record. The faces on the Kentucky players told the story: This was a truly happy and relieved bunch to make the Final Four. Kentucky is beatable, but it is still the best team in the country.

If this is a wake-up call and Coach Calipari has the Wildcats come out swinging, it could be a very long evening for Wisconsin.

F Karl Towns (9.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG) was outstanding in a breakout offensive game for the projected lottery pick, feasting on Notre Dame’s undersized interior for post field goal after field goal on the way to 25 points on 10-of-13 from the field. There’s no doubt that Kentucky is at home right now if not for Towns, who also posted a 21-point, 10-rebound effort in the first round win over Hampton.

Fellow freshman F Trey Lyles (8.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG) had been putting together a great tournament with double-figure scoring in Kentucky’s first three games, before a 9-point, five turnover dud against Notre Dame. Lyles had two blocks, but also had repeated defensive lapses allowing easy baskets for the Fighting Irish.

C Willie Cauley-Stein (9.3 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will be key in a possible individual matchup versus Wisconsin’s Kaminsky. Cauley-Stein would prove the most athletic defender that Kaminsky has faced, and has blocked nine shots in the tournament over four games, but he’s been quite unproductive beyond blocks (no double-figure scoring games, six rebounds combined versus Notre Dame and Cincinnati).

G Andrew Harrison (9.2 PPG, 3.7 APG) has alternated good and bad games out of his four contests, while brother, G Aaron Harrison (11.3 PPG) also has only had two of four solid games, but even his one field goal versus Arizona was a huge, crunch time three – something he’s obviously made a name for doing.

G Tyler Ulis (5.6 PPG, 3.8 APG), and G Devin Booker (10.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM) could prove to be x-factors off the bench for Calipari.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 4


Wisconsin @ Kentucky

Game 821-822
April 4, 2015 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
78.181
Kentucky
81.057
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 3
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 5
131 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wisconsin
(+5); Under

Michigan State @ Duke

Game 823-824
April 4, 2015 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
72.433
Duke
75.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 3
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 5 1/2
138
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(+5 1/2); Over




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (35 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (38 - 0) - 4/4/2015, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 0-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN ST (27 - 11) vs. DUKE (33 - 4) - 4/4/2015, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) on Saturday games this season.
DUKE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
DUKE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 43-30 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 4

Wisconsin (#1) vs Kentucky (#1)

Kentucky 8-2 SU & 3-5-2 ATS in 10 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS last 3 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky beat Wisconsin 74-73 in last year's (2014) Final 4
Wisconsin is 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in their only 2 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 1-3 Over/Under last 4 Final 4 games

Michigan State (#7) vs Duke (#1)

Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
Duke 2-1 Over/Under in last 3 Final 4 games
Duke's last Final 4 appearance was 2010
MSU 0-2 SU & ATS last 2 Final 4 games
MSU 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
MSU 2-3 Over/Under last 5 Final 4 games
MSU's last Final 4 appearance was 2010




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 4

Since 1987, in national semifinal games with two #1-seeds playing, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Kentucky beat Wisconsin by point in this game LY, but Wildcats were 8-seed then, they're 38-0 now. Kentucky allowed 53 ppg in winning first four tourney games (1-3 vs spread); they're favored by single digits here, bargain because of close call vs Notre Dame in regional final. Badgers won last ten games, scoring 80.5 ppg in winning first four tourney games; they are 37-89 (41.7%) from arc in NCAAs. Kentucky is holding teams to 26.7% from arc. Wisconsin was held to 61.7 ppg in three losses this season.

Duke beat Michigan State 81-71 in November down street from the Lucas Oil Dome, but beating Izzo in March is lot harder than doing it in November. Spartans did shoot 62.5% inside arc that night, but 5-20 outside arc. Michigan State won eight of its last nine games, with OT loss to Wisconsin in Big 14 final- two of their last three wins were vs ACC teams. Duke allowed 53.8 ppg in first four wins in this tourney; Blue Devils allowed 74+ points in all four losses. Over last 10 years, favorites are 17-11-1 vs spread in Final Four games; that said, this is 4th year in row where a 1-seed plays a #4 or lower seed in national semis; underdogs are 3-0 vs the spread in those games.




NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:09 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Duke's last 5 games

8:49 PM
WISCONSIN vs. KENTUCKY
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Final Four Doubleheader
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan State Spartans vs Duke Blue Devils (-5, 138)

This year's NCAA Tournament Final Four is a star-studded affair - on the court and along the sideline - and the action kicks off Saturday when Duke takes on Michigan State in the first national semifinal from Indianapolis. The Blue Devils are 8-3 all-time in the national semifinals under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski, while Tom Izzo has led the Spartans to the Final Four for the seventh time since 1999.

The winner squares off with Kentucky or Wisconsin in Monday's national championship game. Duke, the No. 1 seed from the South Regional, reached this point by holding its first four NCAA Tournament opponents to 53.5 points on 36.8 percent shooting, highlighted by a suffocating performance against Gonzaga in the regional final. Michigan State, the No. 7 seed from the East Regional, has limited the opposition to 33.9 percent shooting and 23.7 percent from 3-point range during its four tournament wins, capped by an overtime triumph against Louisville in the Elite Eight. This game is a rematch from Nov. 18, when the Blue Devils posted an 81-71 victory on this same court as part of the Champions Classic.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Duke opened as -4.5 favorites, but quickly moved to -5. Totals across Vegas and online opened at either 139 or 139.5 before being bet down to 138.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS, 20-15-2 O/U): The Spartans shot 50 percent in the first matchup but allowed the Blue Devils to shoot 54 percent, including 7-of-14 from 3-point range, while struggling to contain Jahlil Okafor down low. "We got our feet wet there," Izzo told reporters this week in reflection of that night, when his team was led by senior forward Branden Dawson (18 points, nine rebounds). "We realized what we weren't good enough at. It gave us a barometer to try to figure out who we are." Who they are offensively is a team that relies heavily on two players - senior guard Travis Trice (19.8 points in the NCAAs) and junior guard Denzel Valentine, who has filled up the box score in the tournament to the tune of 13.3 points, six rebounds and 4.5 assists.

ABOUT DUKE (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS, 18-17 O/U): Okafor, the likely No. 1 pick in this summer's draft, shot 8-of-10 for 17 points in the first game against Michigan State, although the freshman center is struggling of late, totaling 15 points on 7-of-16 shooting in the last two games. “We got better (since November) and they did too,” Okafor told the media this week. “They are a better team. That’s just a game that was part of our journey. It’s going to be a different game this Saturday and we’re looking forward to it.” Okafor is complemented by two more stud freshmen - swingman Justise Winslow, who posted double-doubles in the round of 32 and the round of 16, and point guard Tyus Jones, who registered 15 points in each of the last two contests.

TRENDS:

*Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
*Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
*Under is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 overall.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-one percent of Consensus users are on Tom Izzo's Spartans.



Kentucky Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+5, 131)

Kentucky is two wins away from an undefeated season, although a familiar road block stands in its path to perfection. The Wildcats are back in the NCAA Tournament's Final Four for the fourth time in five seasons and for the second straight year, their national semifinal opponent is Wisconsin - a fellow No. 1 seed that will attempt to pull the upset Saturday in Indianapolis.

The teams played a thriller in Arlington, Texas, last April with the Wildcats escaping with a 74-73 triumph on Aaron Harrison's NBA-range 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left. This time around, Kentucky is deeper and more experienced, although it needed two late free throws by Andrew Harrison to prevail against Notre Dame in the Midwest Region final. Wisconsin is likely a better squad as well, led by All-American big man Frank Kaminsky and blossoming forward Sam Dekker. Kentucky leans on the Harrison twins in the backcourt and a collection of athletic big men, highlighted by freshman Karl-Anthony Towns.

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin as a 6-point dog before taking a full point drop to +5 quickly. Books opened the total anywhere from 133 to 131, but have settled at 131 Friday.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

ABOUT KENTUCKY (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, 15-23 O/U): The Wildcats are two wins away from becoming the first undefeated team since Indiana in 1975-76 and if the game is close, fans can expect one of the Harrisons to take the final shot. "The biggest thing is you cannot be afraid to miss the game-winning shot. It's not that you want to make it; it's that you're not afraid to miss it," Wildcats coach John Calipari told reporters. "You're not afraid to make a play and it go wrong. You have to have amnesia. You have to be willing to risk. Those two have it. They both have it." Towns certainly was not afraid of the big stage in the Elite Eight, when he shot 10-of-13 for a career-high 25 points after going 0-of-3 for one point against West Virginia in the Sweet 16.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS, 18-20 O/U): The Badgers have won each of their last three games by seven points, including a hard-fought win over Arizona in the West final as Kaminsky recorded 29 points and Dekker set a career high for the second straight game, finishing with 27 points. Kaminsky may win the Wooden Award, but he has plenty of frontcourt help in the form of Dekker and Nigel Hayes while Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig are also 3-point threats for Wisconsin. "We know what we're up against," Badgers coach Bo Ryan, whose team has won 20 of its last 21, said to reporters. "Our guys are pretty smart guys. They know what it's going to take - a pretty perfect game or close to it, to get these guys."

TRENDS:

*Wildcats are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 neutral site games.
*Under is 15-3 in Wildcats last 18 non-conference games.
*Over is 4-0 in Badgers last 4 games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-three percent of Consensus users are backing the Badgers.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Final Four
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils (-5, 138.5)

Spartans’ early turnovers vs. Blue Devils’ strong second halves

One of the reasons Michigan State has made it to the Final Four has been its ability to take care of the basketball. Through the first three games of the tournament, MSU coughed the ball up only 20 total times including just five turnovers against Oklahoma in the Sweet 16.

Those wheels wobbled a bit in the Elite Eight, with eight turnovers in the first half versus Louisville and 13 total turnovers for the game. The Spartans, overall, aren’t that sticky when it comes to taking care of the ball. They average 11.3 turnovers per game, the most of the four teams remaining in the tournament.

In its 81-71 loss to Duke in the regular season, Michigan State recorded 10 turnovers in the first half and 13 for the game, leading to 24 points for the Blue Devils. The Spartans fell behind – down 40-33 at half – and couldn’t battle back with Duke turning it up in the final 20 minutes.

The Blue Devils are among the best second-half teams in the tournament, averaging 40.5 points per second half this season – most of any of the Final Four contenders. Unlike, Louisville’s offense, Duke can pile it on and makes it very tough for even the most talented teams to dig themselves out of a hole. Michigan State pulled to within three points of the Blue Devils in the second half of that November 18 matchup before Duke erupted for a 13-3 run to seal the win.


Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-5, 131)

Badgers’ lack of bigs vs. Wildcats’ size surplus

The Badgers aren’t used to looking up at their opponents. Wisconsin came into the tournament with an average height of 79.2 inches or 6-foot-6, behind only the Kentucky Wildcats at 79.3 inches. It just so happen UK is Wisconsin’ tall task to topple for a shot at the national title.

These teams battled last year in the Final Four, but Kentucky ran a much smaller lineup, with two true big men and three guards. This season, the Wildcats march out a starting frontcourt that goes 7-foot, 6-foot-11, and 6-foot-10, and draws another 7-footer off the bench. Only one NBA team – the Minnesota Timberwolves – has more height than Kentucky.

Wisconsin tops out at 7-footer Frank Kaminsky and declines to 6-foot-9 Sam Dekker and 6-foot-7 Nigel Hayes in the starting lineup, bringing in 6-foot-9 Duje Dukan off the pine. There’s not a lot of depth when it comes to real size for the Badgers, who could get caught short handed if foul trouble comes into play. Wisconsin was whistled for 21 personal fouls in the Elite Eight against Arizona, which matched up pretty well with the Badgers in terms of height, and 13 of those calls were on the frontcourt. Kaminsky had four personal fouls alone, his highest total of the season.

Kentucky has drawn an average of 21.7 fouls per game in its last three NCAA contests, attempting 26.7 free throws per outing in that span. And the Wildcats make them count too, shooting better than 77 percent from the charity stripe. The Badgers were called for just 12.4 fouls a game on the year but that average has jumped to 17.3 in the last three NCAA games.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB

Saturday, April 4


Under has been the hot bet in recent Duke contests

The Duke Blue Devils have been a boon for bettors banking on low totals lately, cashing the Under in eight out of their last nine contests.

Most shops opened the total for Duke-Michigan State's Final Four matchup at 137, but that's been bet up to 138 throughout the week.

Coach K's squad have been allowing an average of 58 points per game during that span while averaging 75 points for.


Coach K is dominating Izzo in career meetings

Mike Krzyzewski owns a massive 8-1 edge over Tom Izzo in the nine meetings between the two legendary coaches with Coach K holding a 5-4 advantage against the spread.

Their two teams, Duke and Michigan State, meet in the Final Four on Saturday with Duke tabbed as a 5.5-point favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

League leaders in various baseball categories last season........

-- On-base %age-- McCutchen .410, VMartinez .409, Bautista .403

-- Runs-- Trout 115, Dozier 112, Rendon 111, Pence 106

-- RBI-- AGonzalez 116, Trout 111, MiCabrera 109, Cruz 108

-- HRs-- Cruz 40, Stanton/Carter 37, Abreu/Trout 36

-- Strikeouts-- Price 271, Kluber 269, Scherzer 252, Hernandez 248

-- ERA-- Kershaw 1.77, Hernandez 2.14, Sale 2.17, Cueto 2.25

**********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Happy Opening Day, everyone!!!

13) Atlanta Braves raised a white flag the day before Opening Day, shedding roughly $55M in net salary, but dealing closer Craig Kimbrel to San Diego. You know your career is in the ashcan when a team trades their closer so they can also get rid of you (BJ Upton).

12) Meanwhile, the Padres are an intriguing team as the season starts; no one can say they're not trying to challenge the Dodgers/Giants in NL West.

11) Alabama hires Avery Johnson as its hoop coach; he was NBA Coach of the Year in 2006, but has never coached in college. Johnson's son plays for Texas A&M, an SEC rival of Alabama. People think he'll be a great recruiter.

Guys on ESPN Sunday went out of their way to praise Johnson as a person, so thats cool. The SEC has some outstanding basketball coaches.

10) One last thought on Shaka Smart-to-Texas: Smart made $1.8M at VCU LY; they offered him a raise to $2.8M, but he bolted to Texas for $3M a year. There is a thought process among some coaches (think Buzz Williams-- Marquette to Virginia Tech) that it is wise to align with a school that plays bigtime football, that the real money/security is there. It'll be interesting to follow, but it is unfair to say that Texas blew VCU out of the water financially.

9) Cavaliers are 31-7 in their last 38 games, so no one talks about them- they haven't lost at home since January 7.

8) NBA handicapping trend: Celtics are 10-1 vs spread on the road, when they played at home the previous night.

7) Would love to know how Brad Stevens likes coaching in the NBA, as compared to college. Getting Butler to the national title game two years in a row is one of the great achievements in recent college history. Boston is #8 in the East right now; Stevens can have his choice of college jobs, if he wants that.

6) As if this season hasn't been dismal enough for the Knicks, you watch the Cavaliers on TV and see JR Smith being a huge part of their success. Yikes.

5) How is Bo Ryan not in the basketball Hall of Fame? Four national titles at the D-3 level, two Final Fours in D-1-- he's not a Hall of Famer? Bull.

4) Texas Rangers employed professional ball shaggers in spring training; they pay guys to suit up, go out in the field and shag balls during batting practice, so players don't have to do that. Not that modern ballplayers are pampered or anything. No infield practice during the season, now no shagging. Oy.

3) Reds' 3B Todd Frazier is from Toms River, NJ; his walk-up music is very Jersey: "Best is Yet to Come" by Frank Sinatra.

2) I feel bad for Kentucky's players; they had a great year, winning 38 games in a row, but all anyone will remember is the one loss.

1) Cardinals 3, Cubs 0-- Was great to watch game that counts; Chicago could have used a third baseman who can hit. Too bad they don't have anyone like that in their farm sys-- oh wait, forget I said anything.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, April 6

Wisconsin @ Duke

Game 601-602
April 6, 2015 @ 9:18 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
77.159
Duke
79.526
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 2 1/2
155
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
Pick
140
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(Pick); Over



NCAAB
Long Sheet

Monday, April 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WISCONSIN (36 - 3) vs. DUKE (34 - 4) - 4/6/2015, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
DUKE is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
DUKE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
DUKE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game this season.
DUKE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
DUKE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
DUKE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
DUKE is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DUKE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DUKE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
DUKE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
WISCONSIN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
WISCONSIN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
WISCONSIN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-0 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 6

-- My question for Wisconsin is how much energy do they have 48 hours after upsetting undefeated Kentucky? Kaminsky/Hayes both played 37:00, Dekker played 34:00; all starters played 31+.

Duke had a fairly stress-free game in pounding Michigan State.

-- Ryan won all four of his national title games, but they were at the D-3 level, not exactly the same, but he has won four national titles, same as Krzyzewski.

-- Duke shot 67.6% inside arc, 7-12 outside it, scoring 1.29 ppg in a 80-70 win at Wisconsin Dec 3; Duke held Wisconsin to 39.4% inside arc that night in Wisconsin- Jackson had 25 for Badgers that night - he played only 12 minutes Saturday- Badgers' bench played total of only 29:00.

-- Wisconsin is #54 in experience, Duke #331.

-- Blue Devils are 13-2 vs Big 14 teams in NCAAs (since '89).

-- Coach K is 4-4 in national title games, 0-3 vs #1 seeds.

-- Since 1987, favorites are 3-2 in finals with two #1 seeds; in four titles Krzyzewski has won, he was favored by 3.5/6/3/7.5 points in the national final, against seeds 3-6-2-5.

-- Teams from Big 14 are 0-5 in their last five national finals; 2000 was league's last title, when Michigan State won.

-- Favorites are 8-3 vs spread in last eleven national titles.




NCAAB

Monday, April 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9:18 PM
WISCONSIN vs. DUKE
No trends available
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Duke's last 7 games