Cnotes April Major League Baseball Trends-Stats-Notes Etc. !

[CNOTES]

American League East preview: Plenty of value in competitive division

The American League East is projected to feature one of the tightest division races in baseball in 2015. No fewer than four teams have a legitimate shot at finishing on top with the Red Sox an improbable favorite coming off a disastrous 71-win campaign.

Baltimore Orioles (2014: 96-66, +34.77 units, 69-89-4)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 82.5

Why bet the Orioles: Make it three straight winning seasons for the Orioles. There’s no question they’ve turned the corner from being a doormat to a contender in the A.L. East. Despite a few key personnel losses, their roster remains intact for the most part. Baltimore’s starting rotation is good enough to keep it in contention all season long.

Why not bet the Orioles: They might be one bat short after losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. Those aren’t easy voids to fill. The O’s bullpen takes a hit as well, with Andrew Miller lost to free agency. There are going to be a lot of moving parts in the early going and in a crowded A.L. East race, that could ultimately spell trouble.

Season win total pick: Under 82.5


Boston Red Sox (2014: 71-91, -26.47 units, 71-86-5 O/U)

Division odds: +200
Season win total: 86.5

Why bet the Red Sox: There will be no shortage of star power in Beantown this season, with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval among those joining the fold. The Red Sox young prospects got thrown into the fire during a disastrous 2014 campaign and should be farther along in their progression because of it. Like the Orioles, the Red Sox boast a starting rotation capable of keeping them in contention at the very least.

Why not bet the Red Sox: What happens if the injury bug bites again? Dustin Pedroia seems to have a new ailment each season and Hanley Ramirez wasn’t exactly a rock in Los Angeles. The Red Sox are counting on a lot of production from a select few and that leaves them exposed to failure once again if a couple of key injuries pop up.

Season win total pick: Under 86.5


New York Yankees (2014: 84-78, -2.4 units, 68-90-4 O/U)

Division odds: +400
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Yankees: The bullpen has the potential to dominate with Andrew Miller, David Carpenter and Justin Wilson joining an already promising group led by last year’s rookie standout Dellin Betances. Who knows what A-Rod can contribute but I do anticipate some improvement from the Yankees offensively, and even a small boost in that department could catapult them to the top of the A.L. East with a strong starting pitching staff.

Why not bet the Yankees: We’ve seen this story before. In recent years, every time the Yankees seem to show potential, it is quickly dashed. Expectations are high as usual in the Bronx but it will be tough to improve on last year’s 84-win campaign. Rarely do we see the Bronx Bombers as an undervalued commodity. The betting public always seems to keep the price high with this club.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5


Tampa Bay Rays (2014: 77-85, -26.54 units, 74-79-9 O/U)

Division odds: +700
Season win total: 78.5

Why bet the Rays: As evidenced by their division odds, few are giving the Rays a chance this year. A lot of the key pieces to the Rays success over the years have jumped ship but Evan Longoria remains and will continue to lead the offensive charge moving forward. The bottom of the order is ugly to be sure, but if Asdrubal Cabrera can over-achieve and one other hole can be filled, the Rays could show some life.

Why not bet the Rays: Gone are the days of a dominant starting rotation in St. Petersburg. Alex Cobb now finds himself at the top of the rotation and it will probably take career years from Drew Smyly and Chris Archer to keep this group afloat. The bullpen has similar question marks. Grant Balfour has a ton of miles on his arm and can’t be relied upon as an anchor.

Season win total pick: Under 78.5


Toronto Blue Jays (2014: 83-79, +1.19 units, 78-79-5 O/U)

Division odds: +250
Season win total: 83.5

Why bet the Blue Jays: No American League team made a bigger splash in the offseason than the Jays, as they brought in catcher Russell Martin and third baseman Josh Donaldson to add to an already potent lineup. Toronto’s youthful starting rotation shows a lot of promise and boasts just enough of a veteran presence (R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle remain on board) to qualify it as one of the best in baseball.

Why not bet the Blue Jays: The bullpen needs to bounce back after finishing as one of the worst relief corps’ in all of baseball last year. It’s not clear whether the Jays have done enough to improve substantially in that department and that could lead to their downfall. There’s also the concern that Josh Donaldson could regress after a stunning breakout with the A’s, although that’s a risk Toronto was willing to take.

Season win total pick: Over 83.5

 

[CNOTES]

National League West betting preview: Can the Dodgers get it done?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites in the National League West despite the defending World Series champs, the San Francisco Giants, and an improved San Diego Padres team in the mix. Is this the season the Dodgers' talent-rich roster finally figures it out and lives up to expectations?

Arizona Diamondbacks (2014: 64-98, -3160 Units, 74-82-6 O/U)

Division odds:
Season win total: 72.5

Why bet the Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt is a real good hitter and Mark Trumbo can be one as well. Addison Reed has put together back-to-back solid seasons at closer. They have a decent bench filled with veterans who can help mentor the younger players.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: Their rotation lacks an ace and is filled with mediocre starters. Josh Collmenter pitched well last year, but his awkward motion has now been seen repeatedly by everyone in the division. Rubby De La Rosa and Jeremy Hellickson come over from the American League and will now have to pitch in a very hitter friendly ballpark.

Season win total pick: Under 72.5 wins

Colorado Rockies (2014: 66-96, -2790 Units, 79-70-13 O/U)

Division odds:
Season win total: 71.5

Why bet the Rockies: The lineup returns pretty much intact and if Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon can stay healthy, the Rockies will roll offensively. Justin Morneau and Nolan Arenado are solid pieces as well. The rotation has talent at the top with Jhoulys Chacin and lefty Jorge De La Rosa who pitches especially well at Coors Field.

Why not bet the Rockies: LaTroy Hawkins is at closer and might regress after just three blown saves last season. The rest of the rotation is questionable with Tyler Matzek, Jordan Lyles, Eddie Butler and others vying for positions. Carlos Gonzalez is injury prone and missed 92 games last year. The team needs to put up better offensive numbers away from home.

Season win total pick: Over 71.5 wins

Los Angeles Dodgers (2014: 94-68, +1005 Units, 83-70-9 O/U)

Division odds:
Season win total: 92.5

Why bet the Dodgers: They feature the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw, and he's backed by an incredible staff. Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu are very nice complementary pieces. They added Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick to an already strong offensive lineup. Relief pitcher Kenley Jansen converted 44 of his 49 save opportunities last year and the bullpen is filled with live arms.

Why not bet the Dodgers: Yasiel Puig hit only five home runs in his last 132 games and his attitude could be an issue, especially if he or the team hits a rough patch this year. Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson vie for the back end of the pitching rotation and neither inspires much confidence. The catcher position needs an upgrade between AJ Ellis and Yasmani Grandal.

Season win total pick: Over 92.5 wins

San Diego Padres (2014, 77-85, -905 Units, 61-95-6 O/U)

Division odds:
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Padres: San Diego opened up the check book and added James Shields to a strong pitching rotation which already has fireballers Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. Ian Kennedy and Brandon Morrow are solid starters as well. The offensive lineup got an infusion of talent with Wil Myers, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton. Joaquin Benoit and solid middle relievers make up one of the best bullpens in the league.

Why not bet the Padres: San Diego's bench is weak and is comprised of several players that struggled last season. Wil Myers and Yonder Alonso are injury prone and have consistently missed games during their careers. The Padres appear improved this season, but they still need to prove it on the field where San Diego has won 77 games or less in six of their past seven seasons.

Season win total pick: Under 84.5 wins

San Francisco Giants (2014: 88-74, +802 Units, 76-76-10 O/U)

Division odds:
Season win total: 83.5

Why bet the Giants: They are the defending World Series champions and they have a solid pitching rotation with Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy and more. The bullpen is back intact and is one of the best in the league. The offensive lineup has Hunter Pence and Buster Posey in the middle and both are coming off very good seasons.

Why not bet the Giants: Age is becoming an issue with four regular pitchers at least 35 years or older. The team needs more offensive punch to help Pence and Posey in the lineup. The team missed the playoffs following their other two recent World Series titles, so a regression is possible this year.

Season win total pick: Over 83.5

 

[CNOTES]

American League Central preview: White Sox join the party for division title

Detroit Tigers (2014: 90-72, -380 units, 84-72-2 O/U)

Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Tigers: Their lineup is just as imposing as ever. Even if there are a couple of holes, as long as Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are around to anchor the order, it will put up big numbers. I strong believe the Tigers won the deal that sent Rick Porcello to the Red Sox in exchange for slugger Yoenis Cespedes.

Why not bet the Tigers: Will their pitching staff hold up its end of the bargain? Losing Max Scherzer hurts. Their bullpen will likely face a heavy workload and isn’t exactly dripping with talented arms. There’s going to be an awful lot of pressure on the offense to produce, which it will, but getting involved in slugfest after slugfest could be a recipe for disaster.

Season win total pick: Under 84.5


Chicago White Sox (73-89, -148 units, 80-75-7 O/U)

Division odds: 9/4
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the White Sox: The White Sox didn’t sit idle in the offseason, acquiring the likes of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche to add to a lineup that appears poised to bust out in 2015. Of course, it’s Chicago’s starting rotation that shows the most promise. Chris Sale and Jeff Samardzija make up as good of a 1-2 punch as you’ll find in baseball. The emergence of Jose Quintana last year makes the future that much brighter.

Why not bet the White Sox: The secret is already out. Most bettors are anticipating major progress from the White Sox this season. If they’re able to get off to a strong start, the value could be quickly sucked out of the equation. The back-end of Chicago’s rotation is a question mark and the reality is, Sale, Samardzija and Quintana aren’t going to win every start.

Season win total pick: Under 81.5


Cleveland Indians (85-77, +126 units, 76-83-3 O/U)

Division odds: 12/5
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Indians: The young core that led the Tribe’s resurgence in 2014 remains intact entering the new campaign. If last year’s numbers hold up and Brandon Moss is able to make an immediate impact, Cleveland should be in contention all season long. The Indians batting order is sneaky-good from top-to-bottom and this is a team that could fly beneath the radar of most bettors’ once again providing substantial value.

Why not bet the Indians: We have to anticipate at least some regression from last year’s breakout performers such as Lonnie Chisenhall and Yan Gomes. The same goes for surprise A.L. Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. How much regression we see (if any at all) will determine how far the Tribe can go and whether they’re worth laying your hard-earned money on.

Season win total pick: Over 84.5


Minnesota Twins (70-92, -654 units, 87-69-6 O/U)

Division odds: 18/1
Season win total: 71.5

Why bet the Twins: It would be easy for the opposition to overlook the Twins every time they take the field. Most have Minnesota pegged as one of the A.L.’s worst teams in 2015 but there’s no dominant team in the Central and that could help the Twinkies exceed expectations. They did make small upgrades in a number of areas during the offseason and it won’t take much to improve on last year’s results.

Why not bet the Twins: The offense will be inconsistent while the young pitching staff needs a lot more seasoning before it can start progressing. There are still considerable growing pains to endure in Minnesota, even after a campaign that saw the Twins fail in struggle in virtually every department. Patience may pay off for Twins fans, but for bettors, this team can only be considered a spot play.

Season win total pick: Over 71.5


Kansas City Royals (89-73, +317 units, 73-81-8)

Division odds: 9/2
Season win total: 80.5

Why bet the Royals: They did win the A.L. Pennant last year and return plenty of talent from that club. Everyone is expecting regression from Kansas City in 2015, as you can tell by the below .500 season win total most books are dangling. That could potentially open up serious value backing what remains a quality team in a manageable division.

Why not bet the Royals: There were a number of changes made in the offseason and few of them figure to improve the Royals net results. There was a lot of luck involved in last year’s run to the World Series. How will this club, which isn’t exactly used to success, respond to being the hunted rather than the hunters? One thing’s for sure, the departure of James Shields leaves a gaping hole at the top of the starting rotation.

Season win total pick: Under 80.5

 

[CNOTES]

American League West preview: Can Astros compete?

Oakland Athletics (88-74, -16.14 units, 77-76-9 O/U)

Odds to win division: +454
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Athletics: It's easy to forget that the A's were the best team in baseball for a considerable period last season. While they're coming off a down-year for their backers, they have a history of bouncing back and their re-worked middle of their order should pace the charge with Josh Reddick, Billy Butler and Brett Lawrie ready to inflict damage.

Why not bet the Athletics: While the middle of the A's order is solid, the latter half is ugly at best. Oakland's pitching staff certainly isn't as air-tight as it has been in previous years either, with at least two question marks in the starting rotation and closer Sean Doolittle expected to start the season on the D.L.

Season win total pick: Over


Seattle Mariners (87-75, +3.63 units, 66-88-8 O/U)

Odds to win division: +148
Season win total: 86.5

Why bet the Mariners: The Mariners didn't sit idle in the offseason, doing what they could to address their offensive concerns by adding Seth Smith and Nelson Cruz. Seattle's pitching was top flight a year ago and should be in the same class in 2015. While the Mariners won't sneak up on anyone after a breakout campaign, they should still offer value as most bettors still see them as a mediocre club.

Why not bet the Mariners: The bullpen has a few bright spots but closer Fernando Rodney isn't one of them. Even with the additions to the M's lineup, there are still plenty of weak spots from 1-through-9. They'll need to manufacture runs on most nights and aren't going to win many slugfests, which may not bode well in the A.L. West.

Season win total pick: Under


Los Angeles Angels (98-64, +21.41 units, 88-77-5 O/U)

Odds to win division: +176
Season win total: 88.5

Why bet the Angels: No team won more games than the Angels last season and most of the key pieces from that club are back in the fold in 2015. The emergence of Matt Shoemaker last season gave the Angels one of the best 1-2-3 punches in baseball as far as starting rotations go. You have to like the fact that despite being a 'public' team, Los Angeles still managed to bank over 21 units for its backers last year.

Why not bet the Angels: What about the bullpen? The Angels 'pen performed well last season but I'm not completely sold on this group. Huston Street is the closer but whether he can stay healthy remains to be seen. At the dish, say what you will about Josh Hamilton but there's no question his absence will be felt.

Season win total pick: Under


Houston Astros (70-92, +1.02 units, 71-87-4 O/U)

Odds to win division: +1600
Season win total: 75.5

Why bet the Astros: This is a franchise on the way up. The Astros managed to make money for their backers last season despite finishing 22 games under .500 and figure to improve considerably here in 2015. Adding Evan Gattis should give an already powerful lineup a boost, with Chris Carter and George Springer coming into their own as well.

Why not bet the Astros: Defense is an often overlooked aspect when it comes to baseball betting and in that department, the Astros could be awfully bad this season. Their pitching staff has some upside but there will also be some more growing pains endured. This young group isn't accustomed to winning but rather learning on the fly and that could keep them from getting over the hump.

Season win total pick: Over


Texas Rangers (67-95, -20.48 units, 70-81-11 O/U)

Odds to win division: +604
Season win total: 77.5

Why bet the Rangers: Things can't go any worse than they did last year, can they? Not likely. It's important to remember that Texas had posted four straight 90+ win seasons prior to 2014's stinker of a campaign. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite hard again, the Rangers have enough talent to at the very least stay afloat in the A.L. West.

Why not bet the Rangers: I'm not sure it's as easy as simply counting on a bounce-back performance from the Rangers. They made only minor adjustments to their roster in the offseason and their pitching staff in particular still leaves a lot to be desired, especially if Derek Holland isn't able to return to form. There are simply too many players trying to get healthy and being asked to shoulder much of the load.

Season win total pick: Under

 

[CNOTES]

National League Central preview: Cards favored in most balanced division

Chicago Cubs (2014: 73-89, -450 units, 82-72-7 O/U)

Division odds: 11/4
Season win total: 83

Why bet the Cubs: There is momentum surrounding Chicago after a solid offseason. Jon Lester heads up an improving rotation with Jake Arrieta who was a surprise last year. Hector Rondon had a 0.62 ERA in the second half of last season. Anthony Rizzo has found his stroke and he will be solid in the middle of this offensive lineup.

Why not bet the Cubs: The rest of the rotation is weak with Travis Wood, Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks most likely filling things out. The majority of the bullpen is still hard to trust and the offensive lineup is extremely young. Javier Baez struck out 225 times last year in the majors and minors combined.

Season win total pick: Under 83 wins


Cincinnati Reds (2014: 76-86, -1050 units, 71-85-6 O/U)

Division odds: 15/1
Season win total: 77.5

Why bet the Reds: Johnny Cueto is an ace and he is the second best pitcher in the league after Clayton Kershaw. Cueto is backed by veteran starters Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. Aroldis Chapman can be a dominant pitcher as well. Joey Votto and Billy Hamilton make up a solid offensive lineup that can hit.

Why not bet the Reds: The majority of the bullpen is shaky with limited depth. The bench is young and lacking in talent. Can Jay Bruce bounce back from some career lows last year?

Season win total pick: Over 77.5 wins


Milwaukee Brewers (2014: 82-80, -721 units, 75-83-5 O/U)

Division odds: 12/1
Season win total: 78.5

Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun returns for another season and he appears to be 100 percent ready. The former MVP has the potential to be a dominant hitter in the middle of this lineup. Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza and Yovani Gallardo provide a strong top three in the pitching rotation. Wily Peralta and Mike Fiers have also shown flashes of brilliance during their young careers.

Why not bet the Brewers: The bullpen is shaky as Jonathan Broxton is untrustworthy and the pitchers behind him are very young with few quality options available. Aramis Ramirez is getting older and his effectiveness going forward is questionable. Health has been an issue with Adam Lind as well.

Season win total pick: Under 78.5 wins


Pittsburgh Pirates (2014: 88-74, +597 units, 74-79-9 O/U)

Division odds: 5/2
Season win total: 84.5

Why bet the Pirates: AJ Burnett is back with his former team and he joins Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole and others in a solid pitching rotation. Andrew McCutchen continues to be one of the best hitters and overall players in the league. The bullpen is underrated as a unit and Mark Melancon had a fantastic 0.92 WHIP the past two seasons.

Why not bet the Pirates: The lineup is prone to struggle around McCutchen. Russell Martin was a big loss in the clubhouse and Francisco Cervelli is unlikely to replace him. There are new names in the bullpen that must compliment current veterans. Expectations are high in Pittsburgh this year, but the Pirates must still battle in the most balanced and competitive division in the league.

Season win total pick: Over 84.5 wins


St. Louis Cardinals (2014: 90-72, +207 units, 73-82-7 O/U)

Division odds: 6/5
Season win total: 87.5

Why bet the Cardinals: A veteran team that contains experienced players that have won in this division. The bench picked up Mark Reynolds who will be a productive role player. Jason Heyward plays good defense which improves the outfield. The pitching rotation is solid with strong starters and relievers.

Why not bet the Cardinals: Adam Wainwright's health has been an issue in the past and he missed some games last year. John Lackey is aging and he has pitched over 2,000 innings during his career. The Cardinals are favored to win this division, but all four teams behind them are capable of winning as well. This is the deepest and most balanced division in the league.

Season win total pick: Over 87.5 wins

 

[CNOTES]

AL West Betting Preview

March 26, 2015


AL East · AL Central · AL West
Projected Order of Finish

Seattle Mariners - Predicted Record: 93-69

When the Mariners made their huge splash last offseason in nabbing Robinson Cano, most people weren’t sure if that was the piece that would catapult them into relevancy again. After all, they were owners of four consecutive losing seasons.

Well, as it turned out, Cano, along with a fabulous starting pitching staff, ended up being the proper equation in Seattle, as not only did the Mariners record their first winning season since 2009, but they also just narrowly missed out on the playoffs, surviving until the final day of the regular season. And there’s a good chance they’ll build off of that considering their latest monumental signing this past winter.

Not content with their offense, Seattle lured in premium slugger Nelson Cruz, the top power hitter on the market, to be their new cleanup man, giving Seattle’s its best homerun hitter arguably since the Ken Griffey Jr. days. They also added Seth Smith, who is solid at the plate. Combining those two with what’s already in place should provide the Mariners with more than enough run support. Aside from Cano, the M’s also have to be excited about Kyle Seager, who broke out in a big way last season, so much so that he was rewarded with his first career berth on the All Star team. In addition, Mike Zunino established himself as dependable power source, and if he can just improve his average, he’ll be one of baseball’s best offensive catchers. You can’t forget about Austin Jackson also, as he’s one of the most underrated leadoff men in the game.

As improved as the offense may be, it still may not even be the main strength of this Mariners ballclub. That’s because there’s a truly superb rotation in Seattle, and it’s only going to get better as their youngsters continue to progress. Everyone already knows about “The King” Felix Hernandez, and most are aware by now of Hisashi Iwakuma, but it’s actually the guys in place beyond them that might ignite a potential playoff push. For instance, in his first full season in the bigs, James Paxton (A top-three sleeper of this author last year, remember) was simply marvelous, and in fact, posted the third-lowest ERA in Major League history for a starter in the first 14 starts of his career! It’s scary he might not even be the best pitching prospect the Mariners have, a title that might belong to Taijuan Walker, the dominant prospect who figures to get a lot of work in this season. And don’t forget about sophomore Roenis Elias, who was very impressive as a rookie. Seattle also signed the underrated J.A. Happ, a terrific option to have for the back-end. With Fernando Rodney closing games still, this is a pretty complete team, and thus, one that will be a serious contender in ’15.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Predicted Record: 87-75

A lot more times than not, when you finish with the best record in baseball during the regular season, that indicates you’re about to make at least some sort of run in the playoffs. That was certainly not the case for the Angels a year ago, as they finished with the best record at 98-64, but floundered very abruptly in the Divisional Series, getting swept by the Royals in a very lackluster performance despite being decisive favorites in that series.

Even so, it’s likely that the Angels will be one of the top AL contenders throughout the upcoming campaign. For starters, they have the best player in baseball today, Mike Trout, who collected his first MVP award last season, which might actually end up being the first of several for the 23-year-old. Former MVP Albert Pujols still resides in this lineup as well, and while he’s not “The Machine” that he used to be, he’s still a really tremendous hitter that anyone would love to have. Josh Hamilton is another player with an MVP accolade on his resume, and while he’s shown signs of decline, Hambone is someone still capable of raking, if he stays on the field. That can be a big “if”, however. With a decent supporting cast consisting of David Freese, Kole Calhoun, and newcomer Matt Joyce, the Angels should have their usual ample amount of runs.

On the pitching side, Anaheim isn’t as much a sure thing, as their two veteran starters, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, were beginning to show their older age a bit in 2014. At the same time, they’re generally two reliable innings-eaters that stay healthy and can be counted on for mostly quality pitching. In any case, the outlook of the Angels’ starting pitching may mostly lean on budding star Garrett Richards, who broke out in a big way last year before enduring a season-ending injury in August. Prior to that, he was enjoying a Cy Young-caliber season. Matt Shoemaker also surprised people as a rookie, albeit in a lesser fashion than Richards, but he’s someone that came out of nowhere and proved he can be dependable every time he toes the rubber. It’s too bad Tyler Skaggs is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery, otherwise this might be a pretty complete rotation.

Interestingly, it was a trade involving their bullpen before last year’s trade deadline that really helped springboard the Angels into their very desirable position atop the league. Anaheim acquired terrific closer Huston Street from the Padres, a very critical move considering the inconsistency of their late-inning relievers, especially former closer Ernesto Frieri, but the arrival of Street changed all of that. With Joe Smith setting him up, and a fine group of middle relievers, the Angels boast a strong bullpen overall. Looking up and down this roster, there is some really standout talent, and combined with extra motivation after last year’s depressing ending, they absolutely will be a top contender.

Oakland Athletics - Predicted Record: 80-82

Alleged mastermind general manager Billy Beane gets a lot of credit for his pioneering tactics – and most likely, too much credit, considering he’s won a grand total of one playoff series in his 17 years on the job – but last year, his performance with the Athletics easily ranks up there as one of the most atrocious in history.

After all, Beane’s A’s were flying high, coasting through the rugged AL West and possessing one of the best records in baseball leading up to the trade deadline. Then, for whatever inexplicable reason, Beane decided to blow everything up, leading to a woeful collapse that culminated in a disastrous loss to the Royals in the AL Wild Card play-in game. Can they get back on their perch with a mostly new-look roster in 2015?

If there’s one thing Beane does right, it’s putting together a standout pitching staff, which he has done once again for the upcoming slate. Sonny Gray is the ace in Oakland with a future as bright as any other starter in the American League, while residing behind him in the No. 2 slot is Scott Kazmir, who is coming off another marvelous campaign since returning to the big leagues in 2013. Beyond them, though, is what could be most instrumental in determining the Athletics’ outlook. Jesse Hahn was acquired from the Padres in a trade after a very promising rookie season, while Drew Pomeranz was mostly excellent in 2014 before a freak injury cut his season short. Plus, let’s not forget about Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin, two already-proven youngsters that are scheduled to return around midseason. The Athletics also own an outstanding bullpen, with Sean Doolittle as the closer and Ryan Cook and newcomer Tyler Clippard setting him up, making it a scary proposition if you fall behind this club after six innings.

Regarding their batting order, the A’s did even more refurnishing than with their pitching. Say goodbye to regulars Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, and Jed Lowrie, not to mention Yoenis Cespedes, their top power hitter who they curiously dealt at the deadline last season. But in the process, Oakland is welcoming a trio of quality bats in Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie, and Ben Zobrist, all of whom having accomplished success before. While Butler and Zobrist are the more trusted players to produce, Lawrie still has severely untapped potential because of seemingly annual injuries, so if he can stay healthy, that would make a significant difference. Meanwhile, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick are the two main returning stalwarts in this lineup. Overall, the A’s are pretty finely-rounded ballclub. The ceiling is high, and as long as Beane doesn’t botch it like last season, there’s a solid chance he collects his second career playoff series victory – and maybe more.

Texas Rangers - Predicted Record: 77-85

No team in baseball last year had more injuries than the Rangers, who were so decimated in 2014 that they actually set a Major League record for most players used in a single season -- a mark they actually accomplished with a full month left in the year. Not only that, they saw beloved longtime manager Ron Washington depart late in the year for personal reasons. It was just disastrous all around for Texas, who endured their worst season since 1985, but with most of their guys back healthy, there is potential to be one of the surprise teams of ’15 under new manager Jeff Banister.

In 2014, the Rangers were basically doomed early on, as their two big offseason acquisitions, Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo, could never get out of first gear. Fielder managed to last only 42 games before needing to undergo season-ending neck surgery, while Choo was banged up all year and needed a season-ending surgery of his own later on. In addition, the Rangers also lost designated hitter Mitch Moreland for most of ‘14 due to an ankle operation. However, all three of those impact bats will be back healthy, and combined with mainstays Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus, there’s no reason this lineup can’t score in bunches again like the Rangers of old. It’s disappointing that top prospect Jurickson Profar will miss his second consecutive season, but his replacement at second base, Rougned Odor, proved last year that he’s capable of filling in serviceably.

As bad as their health was on the offensive side of the ball last year, it may have been even worse for their pitching staff. Derek Holland was injured before the campaign even began and missed all but the final month of the season. Yu Darvish was enjoying another terrific campaign until being shut down prematurely due to elbow inflammation. If that’s not enough, Martin Perez fell victim to Tommy John surgery early on, while Matt Harrison lasted all of four starts before his previous back injury flared up again. They’ve already received horrific news that Darvish will be out the entire season and beyond due to Tommy John, but at least they’ll have Holland from the beginning this time around, while Perez and Harrison should be back by the summer months. The Rangers also wisely traded for Yovani Gallardo, who has been one of the most stable pitchers in baseball over the past handful of years, but beyond them, the rotation is shaky.

The bullpen looks to be decent, as closer Neftali Feliz made a successful return last season from -- what else? -- Tommy John. At the end of the day, it all comes down to health. They already lost Darvish, but if the rest of the team can just stay on the field and contribute their normal output, the Rangers can definitely bounce back.

Houston Astros - Predicted Record: 75-87

It’s been a long, treacherous road of misery for Astros fans in recent years. There’s no other way to put it more bluntly. Prior to last season, Houston had etched together three consecutive 100-loss seasons – the first three such seasons in the 53-year history of the franchise! – but finally, it appears like there is light at the end of the tunnel.

That’s because last year, the Astros accomplished their first 70-win season since 2010, and some might say they even looked better than their final record, as the club got out to a horrid start gravitating towards the bottom of the AL West very quickly. Instead of the usual ending, though, the Astros concluded the season with a very respectable second half, providing hope that this is indeed the year they can get back over .500.

When you look at Houston’s roster in its entirety, you’ll note that some of their youngsters have really come into their own as everyday Major League players. Jose Altuve, for one, has been an absolute machine at the plate, actually leading all of baseball in hits and batting average last season, despite being one of the smallest players in baseball. As unbelievable as he’s been, Altuve might not even be their best player, a title that should belong to highly-touted prospect George Springer sooner than later. In his first taste of big league action in 2014, Springer was dominating opposing pitching with ease, before an untimely injury limited him to just 78 games as a rookie. So, that’s two significant pieces to build off of, and combined with their legitimate power threat Chris Carter, a former All Star behind the plate in Jason Castro, and established newcomers Evan Gattis, Jed Lowrie, and Colby Rasmus, Houston will easily have its most imposing lineup in years.

Meanwhile, the Astros’ starting pitching doesn’t look nearly as promising on paper, but it still might be enough to aid them in being competitive all year long. Scott Feldman is still the ace of the staff, and while most don’t view him as that type of pitcher, the fact remains that he’s put up more-than-decent numbers throughout his tenure in Houston. Their two brightest pitchers, however, are probably Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh, both of whom emerged out of nowhere last year in a big way and flourished. Brett Oberholtzer and Brad Peacock have also demonstrated the ability that they can enjoy similar break-outs. The key, however, might exist within the Astros’ bullpen, which has been mostly dreadful over the past few years. For 2015, though, they finally addressed it, adding hard-throwing Luke Gregerson to be the new closer, and Pat Neshek to join Chad Qualls as the club’s primary set-up men. Believe it or not, the Astros are finally on their way back up, and while most people might believe they’re still a year away from being serious contenders, they’ll definitely challenge for .500.

 

[CNOTES]

AL Central Betting Preview

March 26, 2015


AL East · AL Central · AL West
Projected Order of Finish

Detroit Tigers - Predicted Record: 88-74

Owners of four straight division titles, the Tigers figure to be the favorite to come out of the AL Central once again, but it won’t be easy, especially since it was the rival Royals -- the team they staved off at the end of last season to secure the division -- who prevailed with the American League pennant in 2014.

Even so, Detroit boasts their usual strong roster on both sides of the ball and will certainly be motivated after how last year anticlimactically came to an end when they were swept by Baltimore in the ALDS. At the same time, they also made some notable changes that could largely determine how far they go.

Looking at the Tigers’ pitching staff, there’s instantly one glaring omission: Max Scherzer, who won an AL Cy Young for Detroit in 2013, is gone. He’s moved on to the Nationals after being a free agent, but the club is confident that David Price, whom they acquired at the trade deadline last season, can take over as the new ace. Just as imperative is how former ace Justin Verlander will perform after a disappointing campaign, and in the bigger picture, he just hasn’t been the same pitcher the past couple of years. Another regular no longer on this pitching staff is Rick Porcello, but the club thinks free agent signee Alfredo Simon can provide the same numbers, if not better, after his breakout 2014. The wild card in all this might be Anibal Sanchez, who did miss considerable time last year, but when he was on the mound, he mostly looked like his normal self.

Offense has always been a strength for the Tigers, and not just because they have the guy who has long been considered the best hitter in baseball, Miguel Cabrera. They oversaw a remarkable breakout from Victor Martinez, who put up MVP-caliber numbers last season. Victor wasn’t the only Martinez to break out within this vaunted Tigers lineup, as J.D. Martinez also exploded out of nowhere in cementing his status as legitimate power source. As scary as it sounds, their lineup may be even better this year with the addition of Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes, whom they acquired from Boston in the Porcello deal. Oh, and of course you can’t forget about Ian Kinsler, one of the better leadoff men in the game.

Detroit’s bullpen isn’t particularly strong, as closer Joe Nathan showed signs of a decline. They did pick up Joakim Soria, though, as insurance, and also feature Bruce Rondon, who has potential to close at some point down the road. As usual, the Tigers look built to make another postseason push, but with their division foes mostly improved, it won’t be as easy as in years’ past.

Chicago White Sox - Predicted Record: 85-77

Although they have not made the playoffs since 2008, the White Sox are gearing up for what has the makings of being a very promising season. While they’ve only recorded two winning seasons over that span, the talent that Chicago has put together absolutely has them in the conversation to win the AL Central as early as this season.

When you’re analyzing a roster, the first thing you glance at is the team’s main foundation, and in that regard, the White Sox appear like they can go toe-to-toe with anyone. One of the main supporting reasons for that has everything to do with their reigning AL Rookie of the Year winner, Jose Abreu, who took the league by storm last year in amassing one of the most eye-opening freshman campaigns in recent memory. It’s obvious that he can continue to be one of the best sluggers in baseball if he just stays on his path, giving the White Sox a lot of hope as far as fielding an offense that can put crooked numbers on the scoreboard on any given night.

It’s not just Abreu, though, as Chicago will probably be more than satisfied with their investments in free agents Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera this past offseason. Furthermore, Adam Eaton and Alexei Ramirez have developed soundly into above-average everyday players, with potential to keep on growing, while Avisail Garcia is someone that could end up being a nice commodity in their outfield.

Another main piece of this club’s core exists within their starting pitching staff, that of course being ace Chris Sale, who has been nothing short of fabulous since joining the rotation a few years ago. At the same time, he’s proven to be one of the most consistently dominant starters in the American League. This year, he will now have free agent signee Jeff Samardzija right behind him, giving the White Sox a terrific 1-2 punch to lean on every five days. While the rest of their starting pitching could be better, it’s also not too bad, as Jose Quintana has established himself as a more-than-acceptable mid-rotation pitcher. The key, however, could be Chicago’s bullpen, which was horrendous a year ago in regularly blowing games. Luckily, their heavy offseason spending netted them a very reliable closer in David Robertson, who excelled last year in his first opportunity finishing games. As long as they can establish a bridge that is able to get him the ball consistently in the ninth, the White Sox will have everything they need to stay afloat, and perhaps make their postseason return. The foundation is absolutely a desirable one.

Cleveland Indians - Predicted Record: 78-84

Since landing in Cleveland two years ago, manager Terry Francona has done a wonderful job in transforming the Indians back into a respectable franchise. Prior to his arrival, the Indians had endured five consecutive non-winning seasons, but the former Red Sox skipper has produced the complete opposite in his two campaigns since, including an unlikely postseason berth in ’13.

Nowadays, a trip to the playoffs isn’t so improbable, as the Indians sport a talented roster that should keep them competitive all year long. Usually, it’s the offense that typically does the heavy lifting for the Tribe, but in 2015, it could be the starting pitching who paces them to potential success. That’s because Cleveland’s rotation boasts the presence of last year’s AL Cy Young Corey Kluber, who, despite being one of the most surprising winners in the history of the award, has suddenly solidified himself as a top strikeout artist who can win in bunches.

The Indians will hope Kluber can maintain his awesome pitching, but for this team to go anywhere, they’re going to need the rest of this young rotation to live up to their high potential. For instance, Carlos Carrasco has flashed signs of greatness, including for an extensive stretch in the second half of last year, so if he’s able to pick up where he left off, Cleveland will have a very nice No. 2 hurler on their staff. Danny Salazar is another strong example of a youngster who has displayed incredible potential, flirting with ace-like status since coming up two years ago, and if he can just provide consistency, he has the tools to be a really dominant starter. Trevor Bauer is another notable example of someone who oozes promise.

Offensively, Cleveland looks like they have a lot of punch. Michael Brantley, for one, enjoyed an MVP-caliber campaign out of nowhere a year ago and appears to be a good bet to continue his accelerated progression as one of the AL’s most dynamic outfielders. The Indians gave him some quality company in the outfield with the addition of slugger Brandon Moss, while Carlos Santana and Yan Gomes are coming off years in which they registered career-highs in homeruns and runs batted in. Although Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis greatly disappointed last season, they were all limited by injury, and as long as they can stay healthy, this will be a lineup that features a very high ceiling.

Cleveland has a solid bullpen, just as they usually do, and it will be interesting to see how the emerging Cody Allen does in his first full year as the closer. If he contributes anything similar to his 2014 showing, the Indians will gladly take it. And if that’s the case, combined with nice balance on both sides of the ball, Francona might be bringing his team back into the playoffs.

Minnesota Twins - Predicted Record: 75-87

Despite a fourth consecutive losing season, and their third appearance in the AL Central basement over that span, 2014 may have actually been a bit of an encouraging year for the Twins. After all, they did reach 70 wins for the first time since 2010, while overseeing the emergence of several key youngsters that could end up being very influential as their future takes shape.

When the season opens up, Minnesota will be doing so under a new manager for the first time in 14 years, as the club fired Ron Gardenhire. They’ll now be under the leadership of first-time manager and former Twins great Paul Molitor, who will have quite the challenge in bringing this club back up to respectability.

While a 70-win campaign is certainly undesirable for any team, it was still important in evaluating the significant pieces for the Twins’ future and providing them with important experience. For instance, Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas were two rookies last year who displayed a lot of promise and could end up being valuable cogs in the Minnesota lineup for an extended time. Furthermore, Brian Dozier continued his evolution as a potential upper echelon Major League second baseman, while Oswaldo Arcia proved in his second season that he can be a legitimate home run threat every time he’s in the lineup. However, if the Twins want to make some serious noise offensively, they’re going to need former AL MVP Joe Mauer to stay healthy and hit like he used to. Interestingly, the Twins also brought back veteran Torii Hunter into the fold.

Believe it or not, Minnesota’s pitching actually may have a lot of potential, consisting of a fairly high ceiling. Phil Hughes is the one who stuck out most from last year’s group after a terrific showing in his first season in Minnesota, and will look to build off that. To join him atop the rotation, the Twins signed Ervin Santana, who has been very steady the past several years. Behind them, it’s Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, and Tommy Milone, three guys that have all had success in the recent past. Gibson is especially intriguing, having shown flashes of being an ace-caliber pitcher, considering the number of dominant outings he’s racked up. If he can put it all together, he’s a serious upper-rotation starter.

The Twins’ bullpen isn’t really filled with depth but it does have one of the better closers in the league over the past couple of years, Glen Perkins. As long as they get it to him, they’re in nice shape. While Minnesota is being pegged by most people to finish in last once again, the potential to surprise is certainly there, and they are definitely closer to being a winning franchise again. Maybe this is the year the transformation begins.

Kansas City Royals - Predicted Record: 74-88

After one of the most improbable runs to the World Series last season, what will the Royals do for an encore? Baseball fans are still in shock over what transpired a year ago, as Kansas City not only got hot late in the campaign to make the playoffs for the first time since 1985, but they also relentlessly mowed through the competition from there on out, sweeping the Angels and Orioles on their way to the Fall Classic. Unfortunately, their Cinderella story did not feature a fairytale ending, as they ultimately fell in seven games to the eventual world champion Giants.

Even so, Kansas City received a significant jolt like no other, with legitimate hope that their team can become a regular contender on a yearly basis. Their pitching would certainly attest to that, as despite losing ace James Shields through free agency, youngster Yordano Ventura proved last year he’s capable of assuming that role leading the staff. Furthermore, Danny Duffy also looked terrific and proved he can be a dependable cog in the Royals’ rotation if he manages to stay healthy, which was a big issue for the left-hander in prior years. Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie stepped up last year, and if both veterans can continue along with that similar output, Kansas City will be in tremendous shape. The x-factors on this staff, however, could be free agent acquisitions Edinson Volquez and Kris Medlen. Volquez was solid again last year, while Medlen is currently hurt, but has the potential to make a considerable impact upon his return later in the campaign.

As good as their starting pitching was last season, the Royals’ mains strength undoubtedly was their bullpen, which has been the case for a few years now. Greg Holland further established himself as one of the elite closers in baseball, while Wade Davis was the No. 1 set-up man in the game in 2014. Kelvin Herrera and Jason Frasor are also nice arms to have when trying to hand a lead to your closer, and as scary as it sounds, this unit might be even better when Luke Hochevar returns from injury.

The Royals’ lineup isn’t as intimidating, but they consistently came up with timely hitting, and might be even better in ’15. Despite losing Billy Butler, the Royals believe they have a garnered a similar replacement in the form of Kendrys Morales. In addition, they also signed Alex Rios, who can still be useful on both offense and defense. Combined with usual mainstays Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, and Lorenzo Cain, the Royals can still hold their own offensively. Plus, if Mike Moustakas could maintain any sort of consistency, KC will have an upper echelon third baseman on their hands. Overall, this is a group similar to last year, and thus, they’ll make a hard-fought effort in defending their AL pennant.

 

[CNOTES]

AL East Betting Preview

March 26, 2015

Projected Order of Finish

New York Yankees - Predicted Record: 91-71

First it was Mariano Rivera in 2013. Then it was “The Captain” Derek Jeter last year. In each of the last two seasons, the Yankees -- and the entire baseball world, really -- have bid an emotional goodbye to two all-time greats that will always live through the annals of baseball history.

Ironically, those two seasons were the first time since the early-90’s in which the Yankees missed the playoffs in back-to-back campaigns. Now, without two of their treasured heroes, they’ll be seeking a return to postseason glory, something actually very much possible as they usher in a new era of Yankee Baseball.

While some people might argue that the past two years have involved major distractions to deal with, not to mention the hoopla surrounding the controversial Alex Rodriguez, the fact remains that this is a team that was severely hampered by injuries in each season. On offense, the Yankees were without the services of Carlos Beltran and Brian McCann, two of their big free agent signings going into last year, for quite awhile, but both will be healthy at the start. Mark Teixeira also missed considerable time, and the club didn’t have A-Rod for the entire season because of his suspension. However, all of those guys are now available, and combined with the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner, this can still be a dangerous offense to contend with. Meanwhile, the Yankees will attempt to replace Jeter with Didi Gregorious, and while no one is expecting him to fill his shoes, there is potential in the former Diamondbacks shortstop.

The Yankees were also injury-ravaged on the pitching front as well. In fact, they only had one starter record more than 20 starts last year, that being Hiroki Kuroda, and he’s since departed to Japan. Masahiro Tanaka, C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Ivan Nova all missed significant portions of the 2014 season, but the first three now have a clean bill of health entering the new campaign, while Nova will return around midseason. In the meantime, the Yankees acquired the intriguing Nathan Eovaldi to take his place, and that’s someone who has displayed enormous potential in the recent past, being one of the hardest throwers in baseball. The key, however, will rely on two things: One, if Tanaka returns to the dominant form he was in last year, the Yankees have themselves a legitimate ace. And two, Sabathia, their former ace, needs to at least be a quality innings-eater again. The bullpen looks sound, with the additions of Andrew Miller, David Carpenter, and Justin Wilson looking like an enticing trio in getting the ball to new closer Dellin Betances. Overall, though, it boils down to health: If they can avoid the injury bug, this looks like a playoff-bound roster.

Toronto Blue Jays - Predicted Record: 86-76

Nobody in any sport wants to own the longest playoff drought at any point in time. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, that’s exactly the predicament they find themselves in entering the new campaign, having not advanced to the postseason since their memorable World Series triumph in 1993.

Some people might argue that aforementioned streak of futility would’ve ended last year, had Edwin Encarnacion not endured a lengthy injury that kept him off the field for more than a month. Around that time, the Blue Jays were actually in first place in the AL East, just as they had been in the prior months, and were firing on all cylinders. But once Encarnacion landed on the disabled list, their grasp on first evaporated and they ultimately never recovered.

Luckily, Toronto still sports much of the same roster and if they can keep their impact players on the field, there’s no question they’ll at least be competitive. Encarnacion is back, along with fellow bopper Jose Bautista to comprise one of the most potent pairs in the middle of any batting order. Jose Reyes returns, too, at the top of the lineup, and proved last year he’s still one of the best leadoff men around. The club also added two potentially key pieces in Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson. Considering how injury-prone former third baseman Brett Lawrie was, if Donaldson can avoid injury and provide his usual pop, that would be huge. Overall, the Blue Jays should continue being one of the higher-scoring teams in the AL.

Concerning their pitching, the Blue Jays already suffered a devastating blow when they lost brilliant youngster Marcus Stroman -- their ace of the future -- to a season-ending injury, but just might have enough depth to navigate through those tough lineups they have to face regularly within the division. R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle are the two veteran arms that pace this rotation and are always a good bet to log 200-plus innings. Young Drew Hutchison, meanwhile, flourished in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and will be heavily relied upon in order for the team to take the next step forward. The club also acquired Marco Estrada, who showed some consistency during his Milwaukee days, and prospects Daniel Norris and Aaron Sanchez both have potential to contribute right away. The bullpen no longer has Casey Janssen, but Brett Cecil can be more than serviceable if he’s the team’s new closer. Just like last season, the outlook of the Blue Jays will be tied to whether or not they can keep their top players healthy.

Baltimore Orioles - Predicted Record: 82-80

While “these O’s ain’t Royal” a year ago, that shouldn’t take away from the tremendous success the Orioles experienced in 2014, as they won the division crown and reached the ALCS, two feats they had not accomplished since 1997. Although they ultimately got swept by Kansas City, the foundation is firmly in place for the Orioles to make another serious run at an American League pennant under defending AL Manager of the Year Buck Showalter.

That’s why Baltimore barely made any changes this past offseason. They possess a relatively young roster that is dynamic and has already established its standing, and in fact, they’re actually getting two of their core players back after missing them for a combined 216 games last season.

Manny Machado is one of those names coming back after missing more than half of ’14, including the playoffs. He’ll reassume his position at the hot corner, contributing stellar defense and hitting in the process. The other is Matt Wieters, seeking to continue his reputation as of the most complete catchers in baseball. The Orioles, of course, also still boast their leader, Adam Jones, who has already developed into one of the best all-around outfielders in the league, and its top power source Chris Davis. The club absolutely needs Davis to pick his average up again, however. The one change Baltimore did make was let longtime Oriole Nick Markakis walk through free agency, and replaced him with Travis Snyder in the outfield.

Just like with their offense, Baltimore kept their pitching rotation the same after a really solid year collectively. The Orioles’ front four of Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez all were very consistent throughout the 2014 campaign, en route to each finishing with a very nice statline overall. The fifth slot is still up in the air, as Showalter will choose between Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman. Jimenez has mostly been in decline mode ever since, ironically, leaving Colorado, and struggled again for the O’s last year, while Gausman is a former top prospect and was actually beginning to harness his potential towards the tail-end of last season. If this group picks up where they left off, Baltimore would gladly take that.

Unsurprisingly, the Orioles also kept most of their bullpen intact, too. Zach Britton was very impressive when given the chance to close and will handle those responsibilities once again in 2015, and he’ll still have the likes of Tommy Hunter, Darren O’Day, and Brian Matusz setting him up in the ninth. The Orioles truly do have a nice foundation in place and it should lead them to continued success.

Boston Red Sox - Predicted Record: 78-74

It’s probably certain that no other team in professional sports the past handful of years has experienced a rollercoaster of ups-and-downs comparable to that endured by the Red Sox.

It began in 2011, also known as the season of beer and chicken in the clubhouse, when Boston went from being one of the best teams in baseball, to collapsing in historic fashion and not even qualifying for the postseason. The following year was a last-place finish, before winning it all in 2013. Then they returned to the AL East basement a season ago. Wait, what?

So does that mean the Red Sox are in for a major high again in the upcoming campaign? Based on their impactful activity in free agency, there’s a fine chance that does indeed occur. Boston collected two of the biggest prizes the offseason had to offer -- Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez -- in bolstering their lineup. They join the usual Red Sox mainstays, David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, and combined with the returns of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, this is more than a formidable lineup that should have no problem registering run support, which was actually an uncharacteristic issue for the club’s downfall last year.

Pitching, on the other hand, may be what holds the Red Sox back from playoff aspirations. While they did make some improvements, such as trading for established starters Rick Porcello and Wade Miley, those two are far from guarantees to put up favorable numbers. And they represent what might be best about this rotation. On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox are relying on Clay Buchholz to be one of the staff leaders after dropping off dramatically last season. Speaking of regressions, you can’t do it better than Justin Masterson, who went from being a legitimate upper-rotation starter in Cleveland as recent as a couple years ago, to being left off of St. Louis’ postseason roster in 2014 because he was so bad. And there’s also Joe Kelly, who has looked good at times, but is more of a complementary piece. Simply put, Boston’s starting pitching is not in great shape. At least they still have a quality bullpen, led by former ALCS MVP Koji Uehara closing games and standout set-up man Edward Mujica. However, what good is an effective relief core if you can’t get many leads to them? If the Red Sox can just get consistent pitching from their starters, they’ll be a major player again, but that’s quite a concerning “if” to worry about.

Tampa Bay Rays - Predicted Record: 71-91

Midway through last season, the Rays said goodbye to their most decorated player in franchise history, when they dealt away David Price. This past offseason, they bid farewell to beloved longtime manager Joe Maddon, who oversaw Tampa Bay’s emergence from perennial laughingstock to intriguing contender while guiding the club through the past nine seasons.

Yes, life begins anew in Tampa, as the organization will usher in a brand new era for Rays baseball in 2015. Kevin Cash, despite a lack of experience, was brought in to be the team’s new manager and will have quite the test in his debut campaign, as he’ll be tasked with keeping the Rays afloat in the unforgiving AL East.

When it comes to their pitching, Cash actually may have enough strong arms to compete with the behemoths of the American League. Even without Price, there are actually some guys here capable of stepping up and filling his shoes. Chris Archer is one of those names that sticks out after an impressive 2014, seemingly exhibiting all the tools to be an ace much sooner than later. The same could be said for Alex Cobb, who has been delightful for the Rays since coming up with them a few years ago. Furthermore, one of the players the Rays garnered for their former southpaw ace, Drew Smyly, pitched beautifully after coming over from Detroit and if he continues that this year, look out. Jake Odorizzi also flashed some promise a year ago, and you certainly can’t forget about Matt Moore, who will be back from Tommy John by midseason. Moore actually was once their ace of the future and could reassume that role upon his return.

While the Rays possess quality starting pitching, their lineup doesn’t really offer as much punch. Outside of usual mainstays Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings, there just isn’t much to be excited about. For instance, James Loney and Asdrubal Cabrera are being relied upon to be key cogs in this batting order, despite being past their prime. Newcomer Rene Rivera has never been a regular starting catcher. And outside of Jennings, the rest of the outfield is pretty much suspect. Nick Franklin does have intriguing potential, though. It’s a shame, too, because the pitching rotation has enormous potential, while the bullpen should be steady, too, with Jake McGee, Brad Boxberger, and Grant Balfour. But with an offense very much behind that of their division foes in the hard-hitting AL East, run production will be their undoing.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Projected Win Totals


March 31, 2015




AMERICAN LEAGUE WIN TOTALS


Team Win Total - 2015 Projected Record - 2015 O/U Pick


Baltimore 81.5 82-80


Boston 86 78-84


Chicago White Sox 81.5 85-77


Cleveland 84.5 78-84


Detroit 84.5 88-74


Houston 75.5 75-87


Kansas City 79.5 74-88


Los Angeles Angels 89.5 87-75


Minnesota 71.5 75-87


New York Yankees 81.5 91-71


Oakland 80.5 80-82


Seattle 87.5 93-69


Tampa Bay 79.5 71-91


Texas 78.5 77-85


Toronto 82.5 86-76






NATIONAL LEAGUE WIN TOTALS


Team Win Total - 2015 Projected Record - 2015 O/U Pick


Arizona 72 74-88


Atlanta 73.5 75-87


Chicago Cubs 82.5 87-75


Cincinnati 78 72-90


Colorado 71.5 70-92


Los Angeles Dodgers 92.5 87-75


Miami 81.5 81-81


Milwaukee 78.5 76-86


New York Mets 81.5 87-65


Philadelphia 68.5 68-94


Pittsburgh 83.5 89-73


San Diego 85.5 89-73


San Francisco 84.5 82-80


St. Louis 88.5 84-78


Washington 93 97-65

 

[CNOTES]

NL East Betting Preview


March 31, 2015


Projected Order of Finish


Washington Nationals - Predicted Record: 97-65


There were some big, big things expected out of the Nationals last year. While they didn’t quite meet those World Series expectations that a lot of people had donned upon them, Washington still enjoyed a comfortable first-place season, posting the best record in the National League, before anti-climactically fading in the NLDS at the hands of the eventual world champion Giants. Despite this, there is still reason to believe they can reclaim the league’s best record, en route to an appearance in the Fall Classic.


There are a lot of starting rotations throughout baseball that have considerable potential to be special this year, but it is the Nationals’ staff that most likely tops them all. Taking a look at their starting pitchers, one through five, where exactly is there a weakness? First of all, they signed former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, easily one of the top prizes of this year’s free agent market, and his arrival instantly bolsters a group that was already very highly regarded. Then behind him, you have a future Cy Young winner in Stephen Strasburg, who just led the NL in strikeouts last year and is firmly in his prime. Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, and Gio Gonzalez round it out, each capable of being of achieving ace status on most other teams in the game. And those are the bottom three! In fact, it’s so good that Tanner Roark, their outstanding rookie from last year, is on the outside looking in for a starting slot. It’s a scary group to contend with, and most likely, this is the best pitching staff in all of baseball.


The offense isn’t as stacked, but it’s still solid enough to reward the brilliant work of their starting pitchers on a regular basis. For one, Bryce Harper is an exceptional talent, and while he hasn’t been the top-tier player that many were anticipating him to be right out of the gate, he’s still been mostly good, while also battling some injuries over the past couple of years. Jayson Werth is another quality player in this lineup who contributes notable production. The Nationals now also have one of the true rising third basemen in the game in Anthony Rendon, who, along with Ian Desmond, comprises one of the best left sides of the infield out of any Major League roster. With other fine hitters like Denard Span and longtime heart-and-soul of the franchise Ryan Zimmerman, there are enough bats here to help engineer a deep playoff run this time around.


Sporting a bullpen anchored by new closer Drew Storen, and mostly established veterans setting him up, the Nationals will have very little problem protecting a lead. Overall, it’s another terrific team on paper that should be propelled by its unbelievable pitching staff, which could single-handedly make the difference when playoff time arrives. You have to consider the Nats as the top favorite in the NL this season as a result.


New York Mets - Predicted Record: 87-65


When pondering the potential breakout teams for 2015, there’s no doubt that the Mets -- yes, the Mets -- are easily in the conversation. Despite the fact that they enter the new campaign with six consecutive losing seasons, not to mention zero playoff appearances since 2006, there is a very real possibility that not only will New York snap out of their extensive funk, but that they’ll also return to postseason glory.


If starting pitching was the one determinant factor, then a captivating season from the Mets would be a given. Of course, it all begins at the top with the jolt of energy they’ll be receiving in the return of staff ace Matt Harvey, who seemingly took the world by storm in his first full season in ’13, before succumbing to Tommy Johnn surgery at the tail-end of it, costing him all of last year. Unfortunately, in a cruel twist of fate, fellow top youngster Zack Wheeler is now the one out for the season via Tommy John, but the Mets still have enough quality arms to field a playoff-caliber rotation. Jacob deGrom is obviously one such starter who can attest to that, as he came out of nowhere last year to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. And rounding it out is a trio of respectable stalwarts in Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee. Even if someone falters, the Mets have tremendous depth in the minor leagues, with top prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz close to being ready. Rafael Montero, who looked decent last year as a rookie, is also on call.


For the Mets to go anywhere this season, they’re absolutely going to need their offense to step up. That especially rings true for the face of this lineup, longtime Met David Wright. You could say the exact same for Curtis Granderson entering his second season in Flushing. But there are also some encouraging bats here that offer promise. Daniel Murphy, for one, was terrific a year ago, finishing amongst the league-leaders in hits. Lucas Duda also made significant strides in as a legitimate power hitter in the middle of the lineup. The Mets will hope for the same from their big free agent acquisition, that being Michael Cuddyer, who is coming off a couple of fabulous seasons with the Rockies. The x-factor for this offense, however, just might be the emerging Travis d’Arnaud, their catcher of the future who, at times, has looked like he can be one of the best hitting backstops in baseball.


New York’s bullpen was an incandescent weakness for years before finally developing into a fine unit in 2014. Jenrry Mejia solidified himself as a dependable closer, and with an above-average group of relievers setting him up, it could end up being a strength for the club. No matter what, this will be quite an adventurous campaign for the Mets, and don’t be surprised if they find themselves in the NL Wild Card play-in game.


Miami Marlins - Predicted Record: 81-81


Out of all the surprise teams from a year ago, the Marlins may have been the biggest shocker (As successfully called by this author, remember, with last year’s best bet of Over 68½ Wins), considering they were one of only two teams that had lost 100 games in the prior campaign.


There were a number of reasons for Miami’s sudden emergence, the most striking, of course, involving their once dead-bat offense, which was just absolutely brutal in 2013. Last year, however, saw the Marlins hit like no one expected, proving the old saying that good hitting is indeed contagious. Apparently, budding star Giancarlo Stanton was spreading it all around, as the beastly slugger enjoyed a monstrous season. For his efforts, the Marlins locked him up to a record deal this past offseason, seeking to continue to build around the mammoth 25-year-old. And they actually do have some very intriguing young pieces surrounding Stanton. Christian Yelich, for one, has exhibited all the tools in being a terrific leadoff hitter and should continue his forward progress in that direction. Marcel Ozuna is another nice young player in this Marlins lineup with multiple tools. With the additions of Michael Morse, Dee Gordon, and Martin Prado, Miami now might have enough offensively to get them back into the postseason.


One of the most amazing things about the Marlins’ sudden turnaround a year ago is that they executed it without their incredible ace Jose Fernandez for most of it. Fernandez was lost early on in the season due to Tommy John surgery, and is still slated to miss the first few months of 2015. Even in his absence, though, the Marlins do have a solid starting staff, capable of helping them stay in contention. Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart are two youngsters coming off successful showings, both with the ability to build off that. Tom Koehler also was mostly sharp, probably serving as one of the best No. 5 starters in all of baseball. And the Marlins certainly improved their rotation for this year by adding Mat Latos and Dan Haren, who should each be a great fit in a pitcher-friendly environment like Marlins Park. Once Fernandez returns, their starting pitching absolutely has the potential to rank amongst the league’s best by season’s end.


As for the bullpen, you can’t argue with what Steve Cishek has done as the closer. He continues to be efficient and convert on just about all of his save opportunities, giving Miami a trusting presence at the end of ballgames. And it’s not just him, too, that makes this bullpen so fierce to go against, as their set-up unit is really good when you break it down on paper, with A.J. Ramos, Mike Dunn, and Bryan Morris establishing the bridge into the ninth inning. It will another fun season in Miami in ’15.


Atlanta Braves - Predicted Record: 75-87


Once upon a time, there was a baseball franchise who ruled over their division like no other team in the history of the sport. That franchise, of course, was the Braves, who won the NL East a record 14 straight times -- 14! -- a truly magnificent run that culminated with their final first-place finish being in 2005.


Since then, while Atlanta has only won the division just once, they’ve managed to remain competitive, recording playoff appearances in three out of the past five seasons, but if last year is any indication, the Braves are on their way towards encountering darker days for the organization.


This past offseason, in hopes of accelerating their suddenly newfound rebuilding effort, the Braves jettisoned Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis, leaving them with a bit of a lackluster lineup. They still have Freddie Freeman, one of the better first baseman in all of baseball, but the supporting cast around him leaves a lot to be desired, as Atlanta is choosing to go with young players who may not be ready. Christian Bethancourt and Jace Peterson are two such examples, being given their first chance to sink or swim in the big leagues. The Braves will hope for a boost from veteran Nick Markakis, who was pried from free agency, although he’s arguably years past his prime. The former B.J. Upton -- now known as Melvin Upton -- is certainly way beyond his prime, if he ever had one, currently recognized as the biggest disaster in all of baseball relative to his ludicrous contract.


Throughout its decorated success, Atlanta was known more so for its starting pitching, and this year’s group has any shot at making some noise, it will be because of just that. While their offense looks a little lackluster, the pitching rotation is actually still a strength, with strong-armed ace Julio Teheran leading the way after a sensational 2014 campaign. Alex Wood is also a viable arm to lean on and is coming off a nice season in his own right, having potential to do even more. Mike Minor, while slated to begin the year on the disabled list, has always been mostly reliable for the Braves, and the trade of Heyward netted the club a very solid starter for the back-end in Shelby Miller. Collectively, it’s still a talented assortment of starters, giving Braves decent hope that they can stay afloat. And with their usual standout bullpen, led by the best closer in the league Craig Kimbrel, the Braves do have a chance at sneaking up on teams. With the expected domination of the Nationals, and the continuing emergence of the Mets and Marlins, however, it’s going to be a tough and draining climb.


Philadelphia Phillies - Predicted Record: 68-94


It still feels a bit odd, considering it wasn’t that long ago when they registered five consecutive first-place finishes in the NL East -- a stretch that also included two NL pennants and one World Series championship in 2008 -- but these days, the Phillies are just a mere bottom-feeder seeking to get a successful rebuilding phase in motion.


And even the rebuilding has been slow to get off the ground, as Philadelphia is stuck with a poorly-constructed roster in terms of youth that can make an impact sooner than later, thus putting them in a very undesirable position entering 2015 and beyond.


Is this franchise getting closer to returning to prominent times? Absolutely not. Their main slugger, Ryan Howard, has a very team-unfriendly contract that no other organization is willing to trade for, all while providing relatively little production. The two other longstanding veterans in this lineup, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz, are pretty much stuck in limbo, with neither likely to finish out the slate as a member of the Phillies. One of their main young pieces, Dominic Brown, was one of the biggest disappointments in all of Major League Baseball a year ago, which is a shame after the exciting 2013 he had. Ben Revere, a still-underrated leadoff man in center field, is one of the few shining lights within this batting order, but other than that, it’s a very depressing scene for an offense that used to be ranked amongst the better teams.


Looking at their starting pitching, it’s just as big of a mess. Outside of talented ace Cole Hamels, who had been rumored for multiple trade scenarios this past offseason, the rotation is in a lot of trouble, especially after it was announced that Cliff Lee will most likely miss the season. Their No. 2 starter entering the regular season is veteran castoff Aaron Harang, who wasn’t bad last year resurrecting his career in Atlanta, but his window is closing rapidly. And what good is he for a team trying to look for parts for the future? Comically, Jerome Williams, the mediocre-at-best journeyman who pitched for three teams last year because he was so unwanted, is the club’s third starter. The back-end of the staff might be meaningful, with young David Buchanan offering interesting potential after an excellent spring, and low-risk, high-reward Chad Billingsley set for the fifth slot with a decent chance at making a successful comeback bid after missing just about all of the last two seasons combined. Overall, though, it’s just not a good situation. Jonathan Papelbon, meanwhile, is still the closer here despite not exactly being endeared by Phillies fans, and it will be a surprise if he lasts the season. Ken Giles has notable closing potential, at least. At the end of the day, last place is a very likely destination for the formerly Fightin’ Phils.

 

[CNOTES]

NL Central Betting Preview


March 31, 2015


Projected Order of Finish


Pittsburgh Pirates - Predicted Record: 89-73


When the Pirates finally snapped their infamous streak of 20 consecutive losing seasons two years ago, all signs indicated that it would spark the beginning of something special in Pittsburgh. While they haven’t quite reached that next level yet, they’ve solidified themselves as legitimate perennial contenders, and appear poised to indeed take that next step forward in 2015.


When you look up and down this Pirates roster, the thing that sticks out the most is how truly balanced they are collectively. In their lineup, they are led by an MVP player, that of course being Andrew McCutchen, and have a number of youngsters who have already proven themselves as competent everyday players or are still evolving into top talents. For instance, take a look at the other outfielders who play alongside McCutchen, that being Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. Both are still very young, yet have already displayed all the tools that would lead you to believe they’re easily future All Stars. In fact, you could easily argue that the Pirates have the most talented and athletic outfield in the National League. Speaking of All Stars, Josh Harrison was awarded with his first career berth on the squad last year, enjoying a very productive season on his end. The club also has an interesting platoon at first base between Corey Hart and Pedro Alvarez, with each capable of contributing significant power stats. At second base, Neil Walker is very solid, too.


As much as their offense has grown into something quite distinct, it’s been the pitching that has really stood out most in recent years. Gerrit Cole, entering his third season, has looked fabulous up to this point and is still on his way towards becoming a bona fide ace. It’s safe to say he has multiple All Star appearances in his future. Francisco Liriano, meanwhile, has been a huge get for the Pirates, as he has resurrected his career in a big way since coming to the team a couple of years ago. Also featuring resurgent Vance Worley, Charlie Morton, and the returning A.J. Burnett, the starting rotation continues to be a reliable strength for the Pirates.


Of course, it’s not just the starters who get it done for the Pirates -- the main reason their win-loss records look so desirable every season is because their bullpen rarely coughs up any late leads. It’s amazing how even though they’ve bid farewell to successful closers like Jason Grilli and Joel Hanrahan in recent years, the bullpen doesn’t skip a beat, with Mark Melancon now thriving significantly in the role. Tony Watson and newcomer Antonio Bastardo will set him up this year, which should help maintain a steady bridge. The Pirates got over the playoff hump in ’13, and now they’ll do the same in ’15 as it pertains to a first-place finish. We may also see a deep October run as well.


Chicago Cubs - Predicted Record: 87-75


We truly must be entering a new era of Major League Baseball when the Chicago Cubs are not only relevant again, but are actually a legitimate postseason contender that is capable of making some noise in October. Wait, the Cubs… in the playoffs? Playoffs?!

Yes, that is no exaggeration or hyperbole. Despite five consecutive losing seasons, the formerly punch-less Cubs are back to being a respectable franchise, or at least that’s how it appears on paper after their busy offseason this past winter. Odds are, however, that their talented roster, consisting of several youngsters just about to hit their stride, will indeed translate successfully as early as this year.


Looking at the Cubs’ lineup, it just oozes potential. Kris Bryant, after the massive tear he’s been on throughout spring training, continues to cement the fact that he’s easily on pace to become one of the faces of baseball for the future, and although he may not be with the team on Opening Day (So that he’d be under team control for an extra year), the fact remains he’ll dominate once he’s called upon. Without question, he’s the foundation for what this lineup will be built around. And there are already some very promising players that arrived on the big league scene last year, with Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara part of this new wave of talent. When you combine the already-proven Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and offseason-acquisition Miguel Montero with that group, it makes for a very potent lineup that could propel this team to the top of the NL Central for years at a time. This offense will undoubtedly be amongst the most exciting and fun to watch when Bryant is up playing every day.


This newfound jolt of energy isn’t just because of the club’s offense, as the North Side of Chicago is also exuberant over its new-look pitching staff. General manager Theo Epstein acquired a major piece to sit atop the rotation, that of course being Jon Lester, one of the more accomplished aces in baseball. He’ll have a pretty steady group of guys in line behind him, beginning with Jake Arrieta (Who this author gushed over last year as a terrific sleeper call), fresh off his own monumental breakout in 2014. Established veteran Jason Hammel was also brought back to provide some stability in the middle, while sophomore Kyle Hendricks displayed standout potential as a rookie. In the fifth spot, they’ll have Travis Wood, who regressed last year, but was an All Star in 2013, so there is hope he can bounce back. Even if he falters, watch out for the underrated Tsuyoshi Wada.


The bullpen looks pretty good, too, featuring Hector Rondon serving as the closer, and a trio of quality set-up men in Neil Ramirez, Pedro Strop, and Jason Motte. The Cubs infamously haven’t won a World Series since 1908, but they’re certainly getting closer to breaking that curse. Is this the year?


St. Louis Cardinals - Predicted Record: 84-78


If there’s a model organization that exists within the National League, it more likely may be the Cardinals, fresh off four consecutive NLCS appearances, including that memorable World Series victory in 2011. No matter what, it just seems like St. Louis is always in it till the end, and on the surface, 2015 should be no different.


When you look at the Cardinals’ starting pitching, there are a few names that stick out with exceptional potential. Of course, there is Adam Wainwright, the longstanding ace of this franchise who continues to be a perennial NL Cy Young candidate every year. Michael Wacha, despite regressing a bit in his sophomore showing last year, still possesses incredible ability, especially after what he showed during his 2013 playoff run, and seemingly has all the tools to be a reliable upper-rotation arm for years to come. Carlos Martinez, after previously serving as a late-inning reliever, throws hard and has the competitiveness to be a go-to pitcher in the rotation. Also inhabited by the likes of John Lackey and Lance Lynn -- two guys who just know how to win consistently -- this is still one of the better staffs in the NL. Don’t forget Jaime Garcia, too, if he returns strong.


Just like how their pitching is balanced, the same also applies to their well-rounded lineup. The offense figures to get a boost with the acquisition of Jason Heyward, whom the club acquired from Atlanta. While Heyward hasn’t exactly projected into the superstar many pegged him to be from his earliest days, there’s still untapped potential in his game. Some might say the same for Kolten Wong as he continues in his progression. St. Louis can also take solace in the fact that they have a number of constants in their lineup, specifically Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta, and Yadier Molina, all veterans who put up around the same above-average numbers every season. Matt Carpenter is putting himself in that same category with the impressive few years he’s had thus far for the Cardinals. If Matt Adams ever develops into the big-time power hitter that they’ve always hoped for, look out.


As you’d expect from a squad like St. Louis that has all the little things down to pat, their bullpen certainly ranks amongst the more reliable in the league. Trevor Rosenthall has solidified himself as an upper echelon closer, and with a solid group of relievers like Jordan Walden, Seth Maness, and Randy Choate setting him up, it’s rare that they ever cough up a late lead. It looks like, as usual, the Cardinals have everything under control, indicating yet another notable season is on the horizon for this decorated franchise.


Milwaukee Brewers - Predicted Record: 76-86


Two years ago, the Brewers endured a truly disastrous season, posting their worst record in almost a decade, while being mired in the ugly controversy involving their face of the franchise Ryan Braun, who ended up being suspended the final 65 games of the 2013 campaign due to performance-enhancing drugs.


In the process, a lot of people anticipated the Brewers were heading for a steep decline, beginning with last season. Instead, the club responded resiliently, and despite coughing up a first-place lead in the division that they held for a good portion of the year, the Brewers still finished over .500, supplying evidence that the future may be bright in Milwaukee after all.


While Braun has not looked like the MVP player he used to be since his suspension, the fact remains that he’s still incredibly talented, and was actually limited last year by injury. He addressed the problem with an offseason surgery so there is hope he can return to his normal production. Aside from Braun, the Brewers actually sport a very athletic and dynamic outfield, also having Carlos Gomez and young Khris Davis in the fold. Gomez actually has shown signs that he can evolve into one of the best outfielders in the National League, if he’s not considered such already. In fact, he may be even more valuable than Braun these days. With useful players on the infield like Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura, and Jonathan Lucroy the Brewers potentially could have one of the harder hitting lineups in the National League. The addition of slugger Adam Lind -- if he stays healthy -- also may increase their power output, too.


Pitching, however, may be Milwaukee’s undoing if their season ends up unraveling at some point. While their bullpen is still good, having Francisco Rodriguez return as the closer and Jonathan Broxton setting him up, their starting pitching remains the team’s biggest question mark. Yovani Gallardo, entering a contract year, was dealt to Texas, and as a result, Kyle Lohse slips in as Milwaukee’s No. 1 starter, which becomes a relative weakness. The same could be said for Matt Garza and Wily Peralta, who are both far from certainties. The youngsters on this staff, Jimmy Nelson and the resurgent Mike Fiers, do offer some intriguing potential, though, with notably high ceilings.


Overall, the Brewers look like they’ll be paced by their offense. With a solid bullpen, if they can just get consistent starting pitching, they’ll definitely be a playoff contender throughout the year. If not, it could be a long season hanging around the NL Central basement.


Cincinnati Reds - Predicted Record: 72-90


Coming off a season in which they posted their lowest win total in six years, the Reds are certainly going to be extremely motivated in getting back on the track. After all, not only did they make the playoffs three times over a four-year stretch prior to last season, but they also seemingly had the foundation in place for a group that was ready to challenge for the National League pennant over the next several years. Last year certainly put a dent in those plans, but it doesn’t necessarily mean the Reds are fading.


When it comes to their lineup, Cincinnati boasts a nice selection of hitters, including former MVP Joey Votto at first base, serious power threat Jay Bruce in the outfield, and Brandon Phillips, who, despite his older age, remains one of the game’s better second baseman. Right there alone, the Reds feature three hitters that any team would love to have within their batting order.


In addition, they also have blooming catcher Devin Mesoraco, who broke out in a big way last year and is only getting better. The Reds wisely locked him up to an extension because of his severe importance to the club’s future. There’s also a standout supporting cast installed here, with the club bringing aboard free agent Marlon Byrd, who has emerged quite nicely over the past couple of years. There is also Todd Frazier and arguably the fastest man in baseball, Billy Hamilton, making for a potentially impactful offense overall.


Unfortunately, their starting pitching, though, is essentially the complete opposite. While they do possess one of the best staff aces in Johnny Cueto, there remains some uncertainty behind him. Homer Bailey has been showing positive development in recent years in becoming an upper echelon starter, but this past season was not as successful as his 2013 showing, so he’ll need to trend back in the right direction for the Reds to make significant strides. The same could be said for Mike Leake, who dropped off a tad bit as well. And beyond them, it’s all uncertainty, which could turn out to be a glaring weakness that hurts them considerably.


The Reds’ bullpen at least can be considered as a reliable strength with flamethrower Aroldis Chapman serving as an intimidating closer. There are also other useful relievers within this unit, like Sam LeCure, Sean Marshall, and Jumbo Diaz, working in unison in getting him the ball in the ninth inning. If Cincinnati’s starting pitching can hold up throughout the season, there’s a good chance this franchise resurfaces again as contender.

 

[CNOTES]

NL West Betting Preview


March 31, 2015


Projected Order of Finish


San Diego Padres - Predicted Record: 89-73


Despite consistently hovering around the very bottom of Major League Baseball in team batting average and runs scored over the last several seasons, the Padres did very little to address this issue in the past, choosing to sport the same unintimidating lineups every year, hence why the club hasn’t made the playoffs since 2006.


New general manager A.J. Preller obviously recognized this, and in his first offseason on the job in San Diego, he executed a flurry of significant moves that has the Padres suddenly positioned as legitimate contenders in the National League for the first time in almost a decade. In the process, Preller also positioned himself as somewhat of a rock star, considering offense was really the only thing this team was lacking in being able to build something special.


The most glaring change Preller made was completely refurnishing his team’s outfield, which now features former All Stars Matt Kemp and Justin Upton, and 2013 AL Rookie of the Year Wil Myers, all of whom he garnered in three separate dealings. That trifecta of boppers certainly ranks amongst the most talented outfields in all of baseball, and it’s possible all three end up comprising San Diego’s heart of the batting order as well. In addition, Preller also traded for Derek Norris to be the team’s new starting catcher, and acquired Will Middlebrooks to patrol the hot corner. As for the few returning starting position players, second baseman Jedd Gyorko stands to have the most potential despite a disappointing 2014 campaign, as long as he can stay healthy.


While pitching has never been a reason for the Padres’ lack of success -- they’ve boasted a top five team ERA in three out of the past five seasons, in fact -- Preller decided to make a very notable signing for the starting rotation anyway, nabbing veteran James Shields to be the club’s new ace. Without question, that makes San Diego’s already-dynamic pitching staff even more dangerous, considering how deep they were previously with the likes of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Ian Kennedy. Furthermore, Preller signed free agents Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson, two strikeout artists with excellent track records when healthy, to low-risk, high-reward deals. If even just one of them can avoid injury and return to old form, that would be like having another upper echelon starter at the back-end of the group. Also having a talented bullpen led by closer Joaquin Benoit and the emerging Kevin Quackenbush, the Padres look strong in every facet of the game. As a result, they’ll definitely be in the mix for the division title, if not more. In other words, San Diego is a relevant baseball city once again, and 2015 could very well be the year they return to the postseason.


Los Angeles Dodgers - Predicted Record: 87-75


There’s a lot of drama here for a team that just continues to win with consistency. Even after nabbing their second consecutive NL West crown, it seems like their success is always overshadowed by the latest controversy involving Yasiel Puig or the overblown second-guessing of underrated manager Don Mattingly. Yet L.A. continues to be amongst the favorites to win it all.


In 2015, a World Series appearance is definitely more than possible for the Dodgers, despite a couple of disappointing playoff exits in the past two seasons. Ironically, those dismissals have had much to do with their superstar ace Clayton Kershaw, who has disappointed in the postseason, but has won three of the past four NL Cy Young awards. In fact, there’s pretty much no argument that he’s the best pitcher in baseball right now, and has been such for years now. Residing behind him is Zack Greinke, a talented starter in his own right who would definitely be the staff ace on a lot of other teams. Hyun-Jin Ryu has also been really good since arriving in the majors a couple of years ago, although it appears like he’ll be starting the campaign on the disabled list. Luckily, the Dodgers did beef up their rotation with the additions of Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson, two veterans who have enjoyed success before. Anderson is extremely injury-prone, but he’s proven that when healthy, he’s capable of registering upper-rotation numbers. Also look out for fellow newcomer Juan Nicasio, as he flashed promise during his tenure in Colorado.


The thing that makes the Dodgers a complete team, of course, is the fact that they are also relatively loaded offensively. Puig, despite the potential headaches he might cause once in awhile, is a very gifted player at the plate and has already emerged as one of the regular players-to-watch as it concerns baseball’s biggest names. Adrian Gonzalez is still here, too, being as consistent as any first baseman in the league. Los Angeles also made some changes to their lineup, as with the absence of Hanley Ramirez, they plugged in Jimmy Rollins to take his place as a more-than-serviceable replacement. Howie Kendrick was also acquired, giving the club an upgrade at second base. One of their most underrated pickups, however, is behind the plate, where former Padre Yasmani Grandal will take over. He’s always had potential, and if he stays healthy, that would be a significant plus. It will also be interesting to see how top prospect Joc Pederson produces in his first full season.


The Dodgers have carried a terrific bullpen over these past few years, with Kenley Jansen serving as the closer, and it might be even better this year with the acquisition of set-up man Joel Peralta. There’s no question this team is talented, but can they reach their first World Series since 1988? That’s the only question for a franchise with mega high expectations.


San Francisco Giants - Predicted Record: 82-80


When you win three World Series championships in five years, you normally have people thinking “dynasty” aloud, but as it concerns the Giants, that is not the case. There’s just some things about this club that have people doubting them, even with much of the same roster intact from a year ago.


The one main player they’ll be without from last season’s title squad is Pablo Sandoval, after he took more money in free agency to join the Red Sox. Other than that, though, this is still the same talented lineup, led by former NL MVP Buster Posey. The unorthodox Hunter Pence is still in San Francisco, too, though he’ll be out the first month-and-change due to injury. The Giants can also still rely on regulars Brandon Belt and Angel Pagan, but perhaps the most interesting returning player within their supporting cast is Joe Panik, who impressed mightily last year as a rookie and figures to continue trending upward. To replace the Kung Fu Panda at third base, the Giants signed Casey McGehee following his NL Comeback Player of the Year accolade in ’14.


A lot of people would argue that pitching has been the main driving force for San Francisco’s success over the past handful of years, and that was certainly the case last season when Madison Bumgarner almost single-handedly pitched this team to its World Series triumph. Bumgarner contributed one of the most heroic and iconic performances in Fall Classic history, and was rightfully rewarded with the series MVP award for his marvelous work. Behind him, though, is where things suddenly begin to get tricky. The Giants should be getting a boost with the return of their former ace, Matt Cain, after missing the majority of last season due to injury, but he looked suspect before that and it’s uncertain how he’ll fare upon his return. Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy, meanwhile, are getting older in age, and it was showing during certain points of last season, making them a little uncertain as well. San Francisco is also allowing its former Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum another crack at the rotation, and he’s the definition of mercurial. The Giants’ starting pitching this year will be intriguing to track throughout the year.


At least the bullpen is a constant, with Santiago Castilla closing games again, and a very deep unit of Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, and Jean Machi all working in unison in trying to get him the ball in the ninth inning. It’s definitely a distinct strength for the club, but with everything else not as comforting as in past years, it makes you wonder if the Giants can even get back into the postseason in 2015, let alone make a successful World Series title defense.


Arizona Diamondbacks - Predicted Record: 74-88


Somebody has to finish with the worst record in baseball, and last year, that dubious achievement belonged to the Diamondbacks. In their defense, they were probably better than their final standing, as they got out to a horrific start -- being involved in that random two-game Australia trip with the Dodgers more than a week before Opening Day didn’t help matters -- and also dealt with some crushing injuries. Ultimately, they just never recovered.


But now, it’s a new year, and there’s even new management as well, with Chip Hale receiving his long-awaited first opportunity to manage in the big leagues. And if you look at this roster, there’s reason to believe the Diamondbacks may actually get back to .500, which, ironically, is exactly where they were in each of the two years prior to 2014.


For one, they probably have one of the most intimidating heart-of-the-orders in the league, highlighted by the mighty presence of top slugger Paul Goldschmidt, who was one of Arizona’s aforementioned big injuries last year. When he’s in the lineup, Goldschmidt has as much impact as any power hitter in the game. Mark Trumbo was another of Arizona’s injury casualties, yet is also a pretty feared hitter for his homerun-hitting prowess. If Trumbo and Goldy stay healthy, that would make all the difference in the world, but the real x-factor just might be Cuban newcomer Yasmany Tomas, who has standout potential at the plate, albeit with suspect defense. The rest of their offense doesn’t offer much potential, but youngsters like Ender Inciarte, David Peralta, and A.J. Pollock are capable of making meaningful contributions as roleplayers. Veteran Aaron Hill needs to bounce back, too.


If there’s anything that holds Arizona back from progressing forward, it would be their starting pitching, needing to rely on a pretty lackluster group. They’re still missing their ace Patrick Corbin, who missed all of last year because of Tommy John surgery, and Bronson Arroyo is also out until the summer months because of the same procedure. In the meantime, the D-backs will look to Josh Collmenter, who was very respectable last season in his return to the rotation, and offseason acquisition Jeremy Hellickson, a former standout from the Rays. After them, though? There doesn’t appear to be much hope, unless sophomore Chase Anderson can pitch like he did as a rookie, and Trevor Cahill somehow reverts back to his old Oakland form. The bullpen is alright, with Addison Reed returning as the closer, and Oliver Perez and Brad Ziegler setting him up. Again, this team wasn’t really as bad as their record last year, and if their starting pitching can hold up until Corbin and Arroyo get back, maybe they can challenge for a playoff spot. Their offense may have a high ceiling if Tomas pans out.


Colorado Rockies - Predicted Record: 70-92


Recently, it’s been the same story with this team: They come flying out of the gates in the first month or two of the season, before gradually fading into obscurity once their two faces of the franchise, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, go down with their annual injuries. It’s like clockwork.


Nonetheless, the Rockies are ready to give it another go, staying put with their two superstars after rumors indicated that at least one of them would be on the move this past offseason. And maybe that’s the best scenario for the organization, considering how remarkably talented both Tulowitzki and Gonzalez are. In fact, the general consensus has both of them near the top of their respective positions on both sides of the ball. And if they can stay healthy and play most of the season -- even if just one of them! -- this has the makings of being an explosive lineup. There’s some exceptional talent around them, such as Justin Morneau, who actually won the NL batting title last year in his first season with the Rockies. And Nolan Arenado proved he’s one of baseball’s best emerging young third basemen, both with the bat and the glove. Also featuring Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon, what’s not to like here?


Hitting has never been a problem in Colorado, but when it comes to pitching, well, it’s been the complete opposite. Last year actually looked like there might be a breakthrough with their starting rotation, but just like with their offense, injuries intervened significantly. Jordan Lyles, for instance, was out to a superb start in his first season in the Rocky Mountains before landing on the shelf. Same deal for Tyler Chatwood, who may miss the whole season as he continues to recover from Tommy John. At the same time, though, the Rockies did learn some things about their youngsters, such as Tyler Matzek, who looked promising as a rookie. They also got to witness another quality season from veteran Jorge De La Rosa, though he may start 2015 on the disabled list. An interesting name to look out for in this rotation is newcomer David Hale, but he’s a little banged up to begin the year also. Overall, there might be just too much uncertainty to overcome as far as staring pitching goes, but there is hope once top prospects Jon Gray and Eddie Butler come up to the majors, which should be sooner than later.


Fortunately, the relief core consists of much more consistency than its predecessors. LaTroy Hawkins, as old as he is, performed respectably as the club’s closer last year and returns in the same role. He’s got quality set-up men working in front of him, that being Adam Ottavino and Rex Brothers. In the end, though, it all comes back down to Tulo and Cargo. If they can finally last, then so can the Rockies in the feisty NL West.

 

[CNOTES]

NL Best Bets


March 31, 2015


NL EAST: BEST BET...You'd think we were back in the early days of Ted Turner's ownership in the 1970s, when Chief Noc-A-Homa still roamed in center field at old Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium and the team wore red pin-striped unis at home. We're talking about the Atlanta Braves (73 ½), who have been completely dismissed by many pundits and metrics sorts after last year's dip below .500 and losing lots of offense (Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis) in the offseason. We're not expecting a playoff push, but don't believe the Bravos are going to be as bad as their many critics suggest, either. True, there are still too many swing-and-miss guys in the lineup, but now that top FA addition RF Nick Markakis has returned to active duty after offseason neck surgery (herniated disc), Atlanta does possess one of the game's best kept secrets, a glue guy who will stabilize the batting order with consistent at bats and clutch hitting behind leadoff hitter Eric Young, Jr., as well as provide spirited defense in right.


There are also some live young arms (Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and ex-Cardinal Shelby Miller) in what looks like a serviceable rotation, especially if journeyman Wandy Rodriguez (who earned a spot with an impressive spring at Disney World) fares as well as either of last year's vet arms, Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang (both since departed). And Craig Kimbrel remains an All-Star caliber closer. Braves fans are probably more excited about the new stadium going up north of town on the I-285 perimeter, but Atlanta is not likely to be road kill this season, so it's an "over" for us in the Showcase City of the South.


OTHERS: Everyone outside of the Delaware Valley has been wondering what has been taking GM Ruben Amaro so long to again begin selling off assets while he could get something valuable in return for the Philadelphia Phillies (67 ½), who have been in steep decline the past few years. The remnants of a once-powerful pitching staff contain some of the last chips Amaro can still use to net prospects in return and commence a full-scale rebuild. Though, in the short term, dealing away disgruntled ace Cole Hamels would seriously risk the Phils losing 100 games. Yet Hamels and closer Jonathan Papelbon are about the only marketable commodities left for Amaro, especially with one-time ace Cliff Lee (elbow) on the DL and possibly out for the entire season. Indeed, there is only so much manager Ryne Sandberg can do with this aging and poorly-constructed roster. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Grady Sizemore were formidable members of a batting order in 2008; in 2015, not as much.


Meanwhile, the once-ballyhooed LF Domonic Brown faces a make-or-break campaign after faltering badly since the All-Star break...of 2013. And the new supposed phenom, 3B Maikel Franco, recently disappointed so much in Clearwater that he was sent to the minor-league camp midway in March. Expect Angelo Cataldi, Al Morganti, and others on 610 WIP to be Phillies-bashing for few weeks until the topic of discussion turns to the NFL Draft, and then the Eagles, until this time next year. It's going to be a long summer in Philly...look "under" at Citizen's Bank Park.


The Miami Marlins (82 ½) improved by 15 wins last season. Another similar jump (to 92 wins) would stop the locals from focusing all of their attention on the Dolphins, at least until August, maybe longer. The Heat, after all, are yesterday's news in South Beach. After a reckless quick rebuild three years ago, the Marlins have since added reinforcements more selectively, and this past offseason spent wisely on versatile everyday sorts such as 1B-OF Michael Morse and utility infielder Martin Prado. In addition, ex-Dodger 2B Dee Gordon (64 steals LY) adds more demon speed to the lineup, and OF Ichiro still has enough in his tank to contribute as a fourth outfielder and pinch-hitter.


With Giancarlo Stanton fully recovered from last September's scary facial injury vs. the Brewers and now signed to a mega-deal, and Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich both stars-on-the-rise, Miami's outfield could also be the best in the division, if not the league. The wise offseason spending also added vets Mat Latos and Dan Haren to a rotation that is hopeful that 2013 Rookie of the year Jose Fernandez returns from Tommy John surgery by June. And the bullpen has plenty of bridges to fireballing closer Steve Cishek. If the Marlins hang in there until Fernandez returns, we expect they give the Nats a run in the East. It's an "over" for us in Miami.


The only thing Congress can apparently agree about these days in D.C. is the excitement surrounding the Washington Nationals (93 ½), who are on a short list of teams expected to make the World Series. And the Nats are even more loaded with arms since ex-Tiger Max Scherzer signed a FA mega-deal, giving skipper Matt Williams an embarrassment of riches in his rotation, one in which former All-Star Gio Gonzalez is the fifth starter. That, folks, is pitching depth. But we see some potential concerns in the bullpen, where the departed Tyler Clippard was not only one of the best set-up men in the league, but provided insurance for closer Drew Storen. Williams has also done some position-shifting, as Ryan Zimmerman has been moved from 3B, where he has spent virtually his entire career, to 1B to make room for Anthony Rendon at the hot corner, while journeyman Yunel Escobar, acquired from the A's in the Clippard trade, is now at 2B.


The lineup still tends to have problems making contact, and is very reliant upon another big year from CF Denard Span, whose contact ability and speed to manufacture runs at the top of the order are invaluable. Mostly, however, we wonder if the big-bucks used on the deal for Scherzer could have perhaps been better spent elsewhere, and that mega-contract might limit the flexibility of GM Mike Rizzo to make deals if needed at midseason. This might anger number one fan Charles Krauthammer, who can be spotted at the top of the first deck behind the plate at most home games, but between munches on a chili half-smoke from Ben's Chili Bowl down the third base line, we're looking "under" at Nats Park.


Is this the year the New York Mets (81 ½) finally become relevant again? Maybe. The return of ace Matt Harvey, who started the 2013 All-Star Game for the NL before missing 17 months with Tommy John surgery, should be a plus for the staff. But we wonder about a rotation that already lost projected number three starter Zack Wheeler (another Tommy John surgery) during March in Port St. Lucie and has to cross its fingers not only regarding Harvey's return but also Jon Niese, who has battled shoulder problems the past two seasons. And how much more can skipper Terry Collins squeeze out of 41-year-old Barolo Colon, the oldest opening day starter in the bigs since 2006, when Jamie Moyer (Mariners) and Randy Johnson (Yankees) both were tabbed?


There is potential in the batting order if 3B David Wright (off of his worst-ever season in 2014) is beyond last year's shoulder problems and LF Curtis Granderson avoids last season's abysmally slow start. Vet RF Michael Cuddyer could also be a useful addition to a batting order that uncovered a new power source last season in 1B Lucas Duda (30 homers) and a potential future batting champ in 2B Daniel Murphy. Whatever, the Mets appear a tough read, with the potential to threaten 90 wins if all falls right, but fall back to the low 70s if things don't. So it's a no call for us at Citi Field.


NL CENTRAL: BEST BET...We'll say this about the Chicago Cubs (82 ½); their two-year old spring training home (Sloan Park) in Mesa is one of the best facilities among many superb ones in the Phoenix area. And getting a ticket was even harder than usual this March because of the excitement surrounding the Cubs' significant offseason upgrades (including new skipper Joe Maddon, heisted from Tampa Bay, and potential ace pitcher Jon Lester) and the hype of Cactus League phenom 3B Kris Bryant, who blasted one of his nine spring homers in front of us at the A's Hohokam Park last Tuesday. Bryant's agent Scott Boras and Cubs fans might disagree, but GM Theo Epstein, for reasons relating to future arbitration and free agency, is going to park Bryant at AAA Iowa at the outset of the campaign.


And that might be one of the first disappointments this term for the win-starved fans at Wrigley Field, which continues to undergo renovation to the outfield seats that might not be completed until May (just to warn those who might wonder what they are looking at when tuning into WGN or Comcast next week). There are going to be several moving parts, including Bryant, in and out of Wrigley all season, as the lineup still has contact issues, the relief corps is relatively inexperienced, and the recent arm concerns of Lester (shut down for ten days in March) and erratic spring of fifth starter Edwin Jackson are concerns for the staff. The NL Central is also a tricky neighborhood. We're not buying the Wrigley P.R.-machine hype just yet; it's an "under" for us on the North side.


OTHERS: Nobody seems to remember that the Milwaukee Brewers (78 ½) spent 150 days in first place last season before a 9-17 September caused the Brew Crew to tumble out of the playoff picture. True, there was more roster outflow than inflow at Miller Park in the offseason, but we'd keep an eye on these guys regardless. The lineup should benefit from a healthy former MVP RF Ryan Braun, who was hampered by thumb injuries all of last season but looked closer to his old self this March in Maryvale, and 3B Aramis Ramirez, who was also ailing last September, and now appears back at 100%. Key offseason addition 1B Adam Lind is also expected to provide some needed left-handed pop in the batting order.


The staff has a lot of fly-ball pitchers (which makes ground-covering CF Carlos Gomez an important asset), but even with former ace Yovani Gallardo moving to Texas, we kind of like the rotation, more so if fourth and fifth starters Mike Fiers and former minor league phenom Jimmy Nelson bolster the back end behind serviceable Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, and Wily Peralta. And if vet closer Francisco Rodriguez has some gas left in his tank, Milwaukee's bullpen might not be a liability, either. If the Brewers can forget about last September, they might even chase the Cards and Pirates. It's an "over" for us at Miller Park, and if you have a chance, try to tune into 81-year-old Bob Uecker, still as colorful as ever on the Brewers radio network.


The Cincinnati Reds (77 ½) had some valid reasons for falling out of contention around the All-Star break last season, with key bats 1B Joey Votto and RF Jay Bruce either sidelined or limited by injuries. But unless both bounce back in a big way, we're not sure where this season is going at Great American Ballpark after the Reds failed to score 600 runs in a season for the first time in more than 30 years. In a best-case offensive scenario, with a healthy Votto and Bruce, plus top offseason addition LF Marlon Byrd, and CF Billy Hamilton (56 SB in 2014) with the potential to lead the NL in steals, maybe the offense will be fine. But we have major concerns about skipper Bryan Price's pitching staff, especially since ace Johnny Cueto is coming up on free agency after this season and might be dealt before the deadline if Cincy is not in the playoff picture.


Moreover, number two starter Homer Bailey had offseason arm surgery, and the back end of the rotation is suspect after trades of two of last year's starters, Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon. An arson-squad bullpen also had no bridges a year ago to fireballer closer Aroldis Chapman, imploding on several occasions. With so many questions on the mound, we suspect crusty play-by-play man Marty Brennaman might be in a surly mood this summer. The food (Skyline Chili!) and ambiance are going to be the best things at GBP this season, because we're looking "under" with the Reds.


The Pittsburgh Pirates (84 ½) continue to be downgraded, and we don't know why. The Pirates appear to be built to sustain their recent success that has produced consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since the early '90s, with the added bonus of CF Andrew McCutchen perhaps the best player in the game. Along with emerging LF Starling Marte and five-tool RF Gregory Polanco, the Bucs can challenge the Marlins for the best outfield in the NL. Moreover, Josh Harrison has finally found at home at 3B, which allows Pedro Alvarez to move to 1B and perhaps not have to worry as much about his defensive responsibilities. Spring work in Bradenton revealed that high-priced Korean SS Jung-Ho Kang might not be ready to replace Jordy Mercer at SS, though manager Clint Hurdle will keep Kang as a utility man and hope he finds his batting stroke during the season.


The only issue we have with the offense is replacing C Russell Martin's clutch bat, which could be a problem for new featured backstop Francisco Cervelli. Re-acquiring vet starter A.J. Burnett, who flourished under pitching coach Ray Searage in 2012 & '13 before moving to the Phils a year ago, adds further depth to a staff that has been one of the NL's best the past two years. The only downside to the Bucs' recent success is that tickets are a bit harder to acquire at PNC Park, still our favorite venue in the bigs. It's another "over" for us in Pittsburgh.


One role of the St. Louis Cardinals (88 ½) the past two years has been that of Dodger-killer in the playoffs; we're not sure another team was going to beat the Blue in the postseason. And we would not be surprised to see the Redbirds have a chance for a hat trick against the Dodgers this October. We are not, however, as excited as some about the addition of FA RF Jason Heyward, who should provide some defensive help, but whose contact issues at the plate made him one of the wind machines that helped derail the Braves' offense last summer. Perhaps batting in the two spot ahead of Matt Holliday will help this season, but Heyward's addition also keeps the batting order a bit lefty-heavy.


There are plenty of options in the rotation for manager Mike Matheny, who will hope that Adam Wainwright will avoid some of the recurring arm issues that hampered him a year ago. Closer Trevor Rosenthal, however, did have control issues last season, and a so-so bullpen is hoping that ex-Brave and Angel Jordan Walden can add a reliable set-up arm and perhaps act as insurance should Rosenthal not deliver. We believe the Redbirds probably get back to the playoffs, but getting to 90 wins is no guarantee, so it's a no-call for us at Busch Stadium.


NL WEST: The Los Angeles Dodgers (92 ½) got bold in the offseason in ways other than throwing around hundreds of millions of dollars in salary, luring on-the-rise GM Andrew Friedman from Tampa Bay. Friedman immediately turned over nearly half of the roster from last year's 94-win NL West champs/playoff flop, in the process getting rid of some of the distractions (mainly Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp) that disrupted the clubhouse a year ago. Friedman hasn't completely discarded those potential trouble spots (more on that in a minute), but he also made a determined attempt to strengthen the team up the middle, renting a vet double-play combination (Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick) for 2015 while also upgrading at catcher with ex-Padre Yasmani Grandal. The result is an over-30 infield (along with 3B Juan Uribe and 1B Adrian Gonzalez) that makes the Blue a sort of baseball equivalent of George Allen's 1970s "Over The Hill Gang" Washington Redskins, but defense, leadership, and clubhouse presence now seem much improved.


And then there is the staff, with the untouchable Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, the modern-day equivalent of Koufax and Drysdale at Chavez Ravine. We do, however, have a few questions at the back of the rotation and in the bullpen that opens the season with closer Kenley Jansen (foot) on the DL. And, speaking of those distractions still on the roster, there are mercurial RF Yasiel Puig, relegated to a pinch-hitter in last October's NLDS, and OF Andre Ethier (still owed $56 mill for three more years), who will be an expensive ornament to keep on the bench if he can't beat out young CF Joc Pederson, and a difficult chip to move at the trade deadline unless Friedman wants to eat a lot of salary (as he is currently doing with Kemp, now in San Diego), who could become disruptive forces. Still, this is the NL's best threat to reach 100 wins and return to the playoffs...we'll speculate in October if Kershaw will finally begin to pitch, instead of simply throw hard, in another postseason. It's an "over" for us at the Ravine, where many Dodger fans will have to go to see their team in person while Time Warner's Dodger TV channel is still unavailable on many cable systems in the region.


The Arizona Diamondbacks (71 ½) commenced yet another reboot after last season, when the Kirk Gibson era finally ran aground and the D-backs threatened 100 losses. Can new manager Chip Hale really coax an additional 8-10 wins out of this dysfunctional roster? We're not convinced. A jerry-rigged pitching staff makes any significant progress unlikely, with plenty of questions in a rotation that is crossing its fingers that Trevor Cahill and Jeremy Hellickson both can rediscover lost form from past seasons, and that has both Bronson Arroyo and Patrick Corbin still on the mend from Tommy John surgery and perhaps not available until the All-Star break...if then. The lineup also has several questions beyond 1B Paul Goldschmidt, himself on the mend from a hand injury that ended his 2014 season in early August.


Moreover, as Cactus League camp breaks at Talking Stick, there is still uncertainty what to do with high-priced Cuban signee Yasmany Tomas, projected at 3B, but just as likely to open the season at AAA Reno after an uncertain spring. The poor fits on the roster are reflected by sorts like Tomas and ex-Angel Mark Trumbo, whose best bets are to play 1B (not happening in Phoenix with Goldschmidt around) or at DH (except for a few interleague games, no help to Arizona, which plays in the wrong league), not in the outfield, where Hale likely starts Trumbo in right. This is an awfully big projected jump in wins for a team with so many question marks...it's an "under" for us at Chase Field.


Like the Diamondbacks, we don't think the Colorado Rockies (71 ½) contend for the playoffs, either. Especially after losing 96 times last season when they dropped 30 of their last 35 on the road, where their 3.15 runs pg as a visitor were MLB's worst, and where their .636 OBPS was also last in the bigs. Moreover, the Rocks didn't make many significant offseason additions. So why any optimism? Well, just having a healthy SS Troy Tulowitzki (hip last season) is almost the equivalent of adding an MVP candidate to the lineup, which was without Tulo and star RF Carlos Gonzalez (knee in 2014) for a combined 163 games last season. While it's no guarantee that either of those injury-prone guys can stay healthy, if they do, it's a huge plus. The Rocks also changed direction in their front office, with 37-year-old dynamo Jeff Bridich replacing Dan O'Dowd as the GM, with manager Walt Weiss given more voice in personnel matters. The immediate result was a restructured roster with numerous apparent bargain additions.


Several of those new faces will hopefully bolster a staff that a year ago had the highest ERA (4.84) in MLB and whose starters (4.89) and relievers (4.79) ranked last in the NL. After releasing Jhoulys Chacin in March and with lefty Jorge De La Rosa opening the season on the DL, it's time to see if young flamethrowers Jon Gray and Eddie Butler can anchor the back of a rotation that should get some benefit from ex-Phil Kyle Kendrick, who can eat innings and was the highest-profile offseason addition. Mostly, however, we bank upon a healthier Tulowitzki and Gonzalez to get the Rocks at least six more wins above their 2014 total...and cross our fingers. It's a light "over" call for us at Coors Field.


For the first time in a long while, the San Diego Padres (84 ½) look kind of interesting entering the season. New GM A.J. Preller, tired of the Padres' popgun offense, went out and acquired a brand-new outfield that now features ex-Dodger Matt Kemp, ex-Ray Wil Myers, and ex-Brave Justin Upton, plus a new All-Star C in ex-A's Derek Norris, while also signing workhorse starter James Shields, the ace of the Royals' World Series rotation, to the most expensive contract ever awarded by the franchise. Such dramatic immediate makeovers, like the 2012 Marlins and 2013 Blue Jays, tend to derail. But we were thinking the Padres might be better in 2015 even before the flurry of offseason moves because of their underrated pitching staff that looked solid even before the addition of Shields, with Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross (an All-Star last season) both hinting at ace-like stuff, Ian Kennedy an effective innings-eater, and Odrisamer Despaigne flashing some upside a year ago.


Still, we suggest pumping the brakes a bit, because Petco Park's big dimensions will suppress the power numbers of all of the new acquisitions, and the Padres are going to lose some defense in the outfield (not an insignificant development at Petco) if CF Cameron Maybin has to sit and Myers, not known for his glove, must patrol the biggest part of the expansive park. We are also not sure that 37-year-old Joaquin Benoit, a pleasant surprise in 2014 after Huston Street's trade to the Angels, is going to be able to handle closer duties for a contender. At least it's not same old same old in San Diego this season. Still, it's a no-call for us at Petco, though we highly suggest, while you can, buying the MLB TV package just to hear Dick Enberg (on his way to Cooperstown this July as winner of the Ford Frick Award, which might be worth a trip for us) call the games.


The last two times the San Francisco Giants (83 ½) won the World Series, in 2010 & 2012, the Bay Bombers disappointed the following campaign. After winning the Fall Classic for the third time in five seasons a year ago, can skipper Bruce Bochy prevent another backslide? We'll see. On the negative side, they have little momentum on the eve of Opening Day, having floundered at the plate almost the entire spring, resulting in the worst record in the Cactus League. They have two veteran pitchers in their rotation (Matt Cain and Tim Hudson) coming off surgeries, a third who began 2014 with one win in his first 23 starts (Jake Peavy), and a fourth who basically hasn't gotten anybody out since President Obama's first term (Tim Lincecum). But they have Bochy, who has taken three flawed rosters to World Series glory, and ace Madison Bumgarner, who almost single-handedly won the title for the Giants in the best October pitching performance since Mickey Lolich with the Tigers in 1968. Bumgarner is so dominant that even if the rest of staff can't get above .500, the Giants still might threaten the playoffs, with Bumgarner a threat to win 25 games. The first-rate bullpen returns almost intact as well.


Still, many believe the Giants went on the cheap to replace key cogs Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse (both gone in free agency), with only Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki added in the offseason. And with RF Hunter Pence (broken arm) opening the season on the DL, there is little pop in the outfield. The reasons we are not downgrading the Giants completely are Bochy, Bumgarner, and shrewd GM Brian Sabean, who has had a magic touch with midseason moves in the past and is not likely to sit on his hands if the offense (OF in particular) isn't producing. The Giant lineup in August and September could thus have a much different look than it does in April. Given those considerations, along with all of the other mixed signals, we'd rather just sit back and watch what transpires with the Giants, enjoying the incomparable Jon Miller describe the action on blowtorch flagship station KNBR 680 with the colorful Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow doing the same on the TV side. Whatever, it's a no-call for us at AT&T Park.


Next issue: AL Preview!

 

[CNOTES]

MLB Win Totals - Best Bets


March 31, 2015


New York Mets - OVER 82½ Wins


There are really only two things preventing me from making this a much more substantial bet:


One, Zack Wheeler’s injury is an absolute killer for me. Those who know me or have subscribed to my picks in the past know how much I love Wheeler and how I feel about his awesome potential. Simply put, the guy is capable of being one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball (187 K’s in 185 IP last year), and I hope Wheeler is able to pick up where he left off when he returns. I’ve been rooting for him since the night he debuted in June 2013 at Atlanta and I wish him a speedy recovery.


And two, the Mets not upgrading at shortstop is also deplorable. They had a chance to get an upper echelon shortstop like Troy Tulowitzki or Ian Desmond, and ended up balking at the last minute because they didn’t want to surrender one of their better pitching prospects, despite their notable depth with starting pitching in the minor leagues. In my opinion, that’s just horrendous because their team this year can be so close to achieving great things, as a slugging shortstop is probably the one missing piece from having a standout lineup, yet you decide to stay put at a position where you know you’re atrocious (Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores). To me, that’s inexcusable.


But other than that, I really like what the Mets have in store for 2015. There’s a reason people have been talking about their up-and-coming rotation for years now -- it’s loaded. Matt Harvey is a legitimate ace, with both the confidence and skillset to maintain such elite status, and his work throughout spring training has indicated that he’ll pick up where he left off. While Wheeler’s loss is a huge blow to the staff, you have to like reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom stepping in; he was remarkably consistent last year. Speaking of consistency, that’s what you mostly get from Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee, all three capable of very steady pitching. And even if one falters, there are the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Steve Matz, and Rafael Montero waiting in the wings. Montero showed last year he can be very effective at times.


With a much improved bullpen, those leads they get will be preserved. Remember, the Mets had an atrocious bullpen for years prior to 2014. It was horrific. As last year wore on, though, the Mets had developed a very respectable relief corps. They oversaw the emergence of former starter Jenrry Mejia as the closer, as he converted on 28 of his 31 save opportunities. In addition, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black, Carlos Torres, all surprisingly blossomed in their late-inning roles. And don’t forget, they’re also scheduled to get former closer Bobby Parnell back at the end of April, so he’s someone that can also contribute or even provide insurance in case Mejia suddenly struggles. He’s someone I’ve always liked.


While I am disappointed the offense didn’t get that aforementioned upgrade at shortstop, there are still some good pieces for the lineup. David Wright has been a little off the past couple of years, but injuries have played a role in that. He’s still a talented hitter who can also hold his own at the hot corner defensively. Curtis Granderson can also still be a very useful hitter when he’s in rhythm. Daniel Murphy proved last year he can be one of the better hitting second baseman, and I think Lucas Duda’s emergence with his power was legit. They’re getting another boost in power after the signing of Michael Cuddyer, coming off two stellar seasons with the Rockies. I’m maybe most excited for Travis d’Arnaud, who really does have the ability to be a top offensive catcher -- maybe not necessarily with home runs, but still someone capable of registering a relatively high batting average and driving in runs. Now, if only they fixed their issue at shortstop, this would be an offense to fear on a daily basis.


Every season, there are at least a couple of breakout teams who ascend from the bottom, even after a lengthy stay there, and become respectable again all in one swoop. The Mets will assuredly be one of such teams in 2015.


Chicago Cubs - OVER 83 Wins


If you’re planning on taking a Cubs Over Win Total at any point during their new youth movement, now is probably the time to do it, because odds are they won’t be commanding an amount as low as 83 in the coming years.


There is no doubt that the Cubs are about to emerge and become a relevant baseball franchise again. Just absolutely no doubt. Yes, they’re entering the 2015 campaign with five consecutive losing seasons, but that can be disregarded considering the products of those five losing seasons -- high draft picks with immense talent -- are all ready to arrive at the same time, and that’s ultimately what will define this bet.


First of all, I must concede that the main reason to take this bet won’t even be on the roster on Opening Day, but he’ll be up in a few weeks, and once that happens, watch out. Of course, I’m referring to mega prospect Kris Bryant, who I predicted two years ago would eventually become one of the faces of baseball. I can’t recall ever being so impressed by a young hitter coming up to the big leagues. If I could bet on the heights Bryant reaches in his career, I’d do it in a second. In fact, I’ve never been so sure of a young prospect on the verge of reaching superstardom. Everyone’s getting a sense of it now, after his seemingly historic performance all throughout spring training. When he comes to up to the Major Leagues, I assure you he will not skip a beat. This dominance he’s shown will become commonplace, and if he’s virtually a guarantee to slug 30 homers and drive in 100 runs -- in less than a full year! -- how can you not like that?


And it’s not just Bryant who has potential. Look at the cast of good young players around him in the lineup: Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, and Arismendy Alcantara. Those guys project to be above-average everyday players, and they’re all ready to make a considerable impact this season. Speaking of guys making an impact, what about Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro? They’re still young, yet both are already well into their prime. I’ve always especially liked Rizzo so I’m looking forward to counting on him for another usual stellar season. In addition, they acquired Miguel Montero, who I think will be a fabulous fit behind the plate. At the very least, he’s their best catcher in years. I also like the acquisition of Dexter Fowler, someone who can do a lot of different things, and even former NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan resurfaced nicely last year. Chris Denorfia and Junior Lake are pretty good, too.


I haven’t even gotten to the starting pitching yet so let’s check out this very fine group. One, Theo Epstein went out and signed one of the best aces available, that being Jon Lester. If there’s one thing to like about Lester, it’s that he’s very consistent, and that’s while etching out his great career in the American League. In the National League, it should theoretically be easier for him. Behind him is someone I absolutely love, Jake Arrieta, as he’s someone I predicted would thrive after being traded out of Baltimore. He was absolutely phenomenal last year and there’s no reason to believe he’ll suddenly stray away from that success. Jason Hammel was also acquired and he’s someone that’s always been very solid and steady. The Cubs have a nice, young No. 4 starter in Kyle Hendricks, who exhibited notable potential last year as a rookie. And for the final spot, there is former All Star Travis Wood, who admittedly is coming off a down year, but as a fifth starter, you can’t do much better. And even if he struggles again, I really, really like Tsuyoshi Wada, and actually thought he’d come away with a rotation spot if he didn’t get dinged up this spring.


I’ll admit the bullpen isn’t as much a sure thing as the lineup and starting staff are, but it’s still a group with standout potential. Hector Rondon isn’t necessarily a proven closer, but he was excellent in his rookie campaign last year so he certainly looks good to run away with the position. He has quality arms setting him up, with Neil Ramirez, who I think has amazing potential in a late-inning role, and Pedro Strop, someone who has had plenty of success before in a set-up capacity. Jason Motte is also here, and he’s got plenty of experience helping close out games.


Again, I’ll repeat it: If you want to capitalize on the Cubs’ distinct youth movement, now is the time. If you wait one year, it’ll be one year too late when they’re more likely drawing a number in the high-80’s. If you do it this year, all you need is for them to barely finish above .500. That’s a luxury you will not have in the coming years.


Tampa Bay Rays - UNDER 79½ Wins


Without question, this is my favorite Under Win Total on the board this year. And that’s saying something, as I’m someone who tends to gravitate towards Overs with these types of bets (As do most people, typically).


With this particular Win Total, I look at it like this: The Rays won 77 games last year in their final year under Joe Maddon, plus they had their best player in franchise history, David Price, for most of it. Before Price was dealt at the deadline, they were actually hanging around playoff contention and posted one of the best records in baseball through a couple of the middle months of the season, before fading down the stretch -- perhaps foreshadowing what the franchise is about to endure in the beginning of their new era, which starts this year.


That being said, how in the world is this year’s squad going to top last year’s team? And with a rookie manager, no less, as Maddon is now in Chicago. Kevin Cash is now at the helm, and you can expect growing pains in his first season on the job.


Look, the Rays still have a very talented young rotation. That’s the main strength of this club. The majority of these guys could easily be double-digit winners. But that doesn’t mean it’s all going to come together this year. Chris Archer is now the ace, and while he’s shown loads of potential, it won’t be enough to carry their pitching. Jake Odorizzi has also shown potential and was one of the best home pitchers last year, a split stat that intrigues me. But the main thing is that most of their young starters are already hurt, which is absolutely a troubling sign when a team is about to open up a season. Drew Smyly, Alex Colome, and Alex Cobb are all slated to miss about the first month and beyond of the campaign, which could put Tampa Bay in a hole that they cannot dig themselves out of. Furthermore, Matt Moore, who could assume the role of rotation leader when he returns from Tommy John, is out at least the first couple of months of the year.


And starting pitching is what they’re relying on. Now look at their offense: it’s very lackluster. Two of their biggest impact bats, Ben Zobrist and Wil Myers, are no longer here. Two of their key roleplayers, Yunel Escobar and Matt Joyce, are also gone. The Rays didn’t really do a great job filling their place. In fact, Asdrubal Cabrera is the most notable name they added to the lineup, which isn’t exactly a good thing considering he’s arguably years past his prime, although that’s not to say he’s a bad addition. The other names they’re suddenly counting on, like Kevin Kiermaier, Steven Souza, and Rene Rivera, are new to prominent roles and therefore may not be as effective. The offense’s most productive player, Evan Longoria, is coming off a down year. So is injury-prone Desmond Jennings. Overall, this lineup does not look like one that could help propel a team to .500.


The bullpen is good, I’ll give them that. I love Brad Boxberger and have been raving about him since he debuted -- now he’s the closer to start the year until Jake McGee gets back. Grant Balfour and Ernesto Frieri are also plus arms to rely on at the end of the bullpen. But what good is an overpowering bullpen if you’re not scoring many runs to garner excessive leads? Just as important as anything, the Rays’ division rivals have all improved. The Yankees are always good and now back to full health; the Orioles are getting two key players back from injury after winning the division last year; the Red Sox are improved; and the Blue Jays were a contender last year before injuries hurt them. It’s a tough situation for Cash in his first season as Rays manager, but it’s the complete opposite for those seeking cash on this Under. One of my favorite Under Win Totals in years, actually.

 

[CNOTES]

Free Agents Signings


March 31, 2015


NEW YORK (AP) -The 121 free agents who have signed, with name, position, former club if different, and contract. The contract information was obtained by The Associated Press from player and management source. For players with minor league contracts, letter agreements for major league contracts are in parentheses:


BALTIMORE (1) - Re-signed Delmon Young, of, to a $2.25 million, one-year contract.


BOSTON (7) - Re-signed Koji Uehara, rhp, to an $18 million, two-year contract; signed Pablo Sandoval, 3b, San Francisco, to a $95 million, five-year contract; signed Hanley Ramirez, lf, Los Angeles Dodgers, to an $88 million, four-year contract; signed Justin Masterson, rhp, St. Louis, to a $9.5 million, one-year contract; re-signed Craig Breslow, lhp, to a $2 million, one-year contract; signed Felipe Paulino, rhp, Chicago White Sox, to a minor league contract ($925,000) and released him; signed Humberto Quintero, c, Seattle, to a minor league contract ($750,000).


CHICAGO (9) - Signed Zach Duke, lhp, Milwaukee, to a $15 million, three-year contract; signed Adam LaRoche, 1b, Washington, to a $25 million, two-year contract; signed David Robertson, rhp, New York Yankees, to a $46 million, four-year contract; signed Melky Cabrera, of, Toronto, to a $42 million, three-year contract; signed Emilio Bonifacio, 2b, Atlanta, to a $4 million, one-year contract; signed Jesse Crain, rhp, Houston, to a minor league contract ($2 million); signed Geovany Soto, c, Oakland, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million); signed Brad Penny, rhp, Miami, to a minor league contract ($900,000); signed Matt Albers, rhp, Houston, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million).


CLEVELAND (2) - Signed Gavin Floyd, rhp, Atlanta, to a $4 million, one-year contract; signed Scott Downs, lhp, Kansas City, to a minor league contract ($800,000) and released him.


DETROIT (4) - Re-signed Victor Martinez, dh, to a $64 million, four-year contract; signed Tom Gorzelanny, lhp, Milwaukee, to a $1 million, one-year contract; re-signed Joel Hanrahan, rhp, to a minor league contract ($1 million) and released him; re-signed Joba Chamberlain, rhp, to a $1 million, one-year contract.


HOUSTON (6) - Signed Luke Gregerson, rhp, Oakland, to an $18.5 million, four-year contract; signed Pat Neshek, rhp, St. Louis, to a $12.5 million, two-year contract; signed Jed Lowrie, ss, Oakland, to a $23 million, three-year contract; signed Colby Ramus, of, Toronto, to an $8 million, one-year contract; signed Joe Thatcher, lhp, Los Angeles Angels, to a minor league contract ($1 million); signed Roberto Hernandez, rhp, Los Angeles Dodgers, to a minor league contract ($1.25 million).


KANSAS CITY (8) - Re-signed Jason Frasor, rhp, to a $1.8 million, one-year contract; re-signed Luke Hochevar, rhp, to a $10 million, two-year contract; signed Kendrys Morales, dh, Seattle, to a $17 million, two-year contract; signed Alex Rios, of, Toronto, to an $11 million, one-year contract; signed Edinson Volquez, rhp, Pittsburgh, to a $20 million, two-year contract; signed Franklin Morales, lhp, Colorado, to a minor league contract ($1.85 million); signed Chris Young, rhp, Seattle, to a $635,000, one-year contract; signed Rafael Furcal, ss, Miami, to a minor league contract ($1 million) and released him.


LOS ANGELES (1) - Signed Matt Lindstom, rhp, Chicago White Sox, to a minor league contract ($1 million) and released him.


MINNESOTA (3) - Signed Torii Hunter, of, Detroit, to a $10.5 million, one-year contract; signed Ervin Santana, rhp, Atlanta, to a $55 million, four-year contract; signed Tim Stauffer, rhp, San Diego, to a $2.2 million, one-year contract.


NEW YORK (7) - Re-signed Chris Young, of, to a $2.5 million, one-year contract; signed Andrew Miller, lhp, Baltimore, to a $36 million, four-year contract; re-signed Chase Headley, 3b, to a $52 million, four-year contract; re-signed Chris Capuano, lhp, to a $5 million, one-year contract; re-signed Stephen Drew, ss, to a $5 million, one-year contract; signed Scott Baker, rhp, Texas, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million) and released him; signed Jared Burton, rhp, Minnesota, to a minor league contract ($2 million) and released him.


OAKLAND (1) - Signed Billy Butler, 1b, Kansas City, to a $30 million, three-year contract.


SEATTLE (6) - Signed Nelson Cruz, dh, Baltimore, to a $57 million, four-year contract; re-signed Endy Chavez, of, to a minor league contract ($750,000) and released him; re-signed Franklin Gutierrez, of, to a minor league contract ($750,000) and released him; signed Rickie Weeks, inf-of, Milwaukee, to a $2 million, one-year contract; signed Joe Saunders, lhp, Baltimore, to a minor league contract ($750,000) and released him; signed Kevin Correia, rhp, Los Angeles Dodgers, to a minor league contract ($800,000) and released him.


TAMPA BAY (2) - Signed Asdrubal Cabrera, ss, Washington, to a $7.5 million, one-year contract; signed Alexi Casilla, inf, Baltimore, to a minor league contract ($900,000) and released him.


TEXAS (6) - Re-signed Colby Lewis, rhp, to a $4 million, one-year contract; signed Kyuji Fujikawa, rhp, Chicago Cubs, to a $1.1 million, one-year contract; signed Ryan Ludwick, of, Cincinnati, to a minor league contract ($1.75 million) and released him; signed Nate Schierholtz, of, Washington, to a minor league contract ($1.75 million) and released him; signed Jamey Wright, rhp, Los Angeles Dodgers, to a minor league contract ($1 million); signed Joe Beimel, lhp, Seattle, to a $600,000, one-year contract and released him.


TORONTO (4) - Signed Russell Martin, c, Pittsburgh, to an $82 million, five-year contract; re-signed Munenori Kawasaki, inf, to a minor league contract ($825,000); signed Ramon Santiago, ss, Cincinnati, to a minor league contract ($1.1 million) and released him; signed Johan Santana, lhp, Baltimore, to a minor league contract ($2.5 million).


---


ARIZONA (1) - Signed Gerald Laird, c, Atlanta, to a minor league contract ($1 million).


ATLANTA (8) - Signed Jim Johnson, rhp, Detroit, to a $1.6 million, one-year contract; signed Nick Markakis, of, Baltimore, to a $44 million, four-year contract; signed Alberto Callaspo, 3b, Oakland, to a $3 million, one-year contract; signed Jason Grilli, rhp, Los Angeles Angels, to an $8 million, two-year contract; signed A.J. Pierzynski, c, St. Louis, to a $2 million, one-year contract; signed Kelly Johnson, inf, Baltimore, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million); signed Jonny Gomes, of, Oakland, to a $4 million, one-year contract; signed Jose Veras, rhp, Houston, to a minor league contract ($1.6 million) and released him.


CHICAGO (6) - Signed Jason Hammel, rhp, Oakland, to a $20 million, two-year contract; signed Jon Lester, lhp, Oakland, to a $155 million, six-year contract; signed Jason Motte, rhp, St. Louis, to a $4.5 million, one-year contract; signed David Ross, c, Boston, to a $5 million, two-year contract; signed Chris Denorfia, of, Seattle, to a $2.6 million, one-year contract; signed Phil Coke, lhp, Detroit, to a $2.25 million, one-year contract.


CINCINNATI (3) - Signed Paul Maholm, lhp, Los Angeles Dodgers, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million) and released him; signed Burke Badenhop, rhp, Boston, to a $2.5 million, one-year contract; signed Kevin Gregg, rhp, Miami, to a minor league contract ($1.5 million).


COLORADO (2) - Signed Nick Hundley, c, Baltimore, to a $6.25 million, two-year contract; signed Kyle Kendrick, rhp, Philadelphia, to a $5.5 million, one-year contract.


LOS ANGELES (4) - Signed Brandon McCarthy, rhp, New York Yankees, to a $48 million, four-year contract; signed Brett Anderson, lhp, Colorado, to a $10 million, one-year contract; signed Dustin McGowan, rhp, Toronto, to a $507,500, one-year contract; signed Mike Adams, rhp, Philadelphia, to a minor league contract ($1 million).


MIAMI (4) - Signed Michael Morse, of, San Francisco, to a $16 million, two-year contract; signed Nick Masset, rhp, Colorado, to a minor league contract ($1 million) and released him; signed Ichiro Suzuki, of, New York Yankees, to a $2 million, one-year contract; re-signed Reed Johnson, of, to a minor league contract ($1.25 million) and released him.


MILWAUKEE (3) - Signed Neal Cotts, lhp, Texas, to a $3 million, one-year contract; signed Chris Perez, rhp, Los Angeles Dodgers to a minor league contract ($1.5 million) and released him; re-signed Francisco Rodriguez, rhp, to a $13 million, two-year contract.


NEW YORK (1) - Signed Michael Cuddyer, of, Colorado, to a $21 million, two-year contract.


PHILADELPHIA (2) - Signed Aaron Harang, rhp, Atlanta, to a $5 million, one-year contract; signed Chad Billingsley, rhp, Los Angeles Dodgers, to a $1.5 million, one-year contract. PITTSBURGH (2) - Signed A.J. Burnett, rhp, Philadelphia, to an $8.5 million, one-year contract; re-signed Francisco Liriano, lhp, to a $39 million, three-year contract.


ST. LOUIS (3) - Signed Matt Belisle, rhp, Colorado, to a $3.5 million, one-year contract; signed Mark Reynolds, 1b, Milwaukee, to a $2 million, one-year contract; signed Carlos Villanueva, rhp, Chicago Cubs, to a $2 million, one-year contract.


SAN DIEGO (5) - Signed Clint Barmes, ss, Pittsburgh, to a $1.5 million, one-year contract; signed Brandon Morrow, rhp, Toronto, to a $2.5 million, one-year contract; re-signed Josh Johnson, rhp, to a $1 million, one-year contract; signed Wil Nieves, c, Philadelphia, to a minor league contract ($850,000); signed James Shields, rhp, Kansas City, to a $75 million, four-year contract.


SAN FRANCISCO (4) - Re-signed Sergio Romo, rhp, to a $15 million, two-year contract; re-signed Jake Peavy, rhp, to a $24 million, two-year contract; signed Nori Aoki, of, Kansas City, to a $4.7 million, one-year contract; re-signed Ryan Vogelsong, rhp, to a $4 million, one-year contract.


WASHINGTON (2) - Signed Max Scherzer, rhp, Detroit, to a $210 million, seven-year contract; signed Casey Janssen, rhp, Toronto, to a $5 million, one-year contract.


---


HIROSHIMA (1) - Signed Hiroki Kuroda, rhp, New York Yankees, to a 330 million yen ($2,737,00), one-year contract.


---


FUKUOKA (1) - Signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp, New York Mets, to a 460 million yen, one-year contract ($3,844,000), one-year contract.


ORIX (1) - Signed Hiroyuki Nakajima, ss, Oakland, to a three-year contract (2015 salary 405 million yen ($3.384,000)).


---


LG TWINS (1) - Signed Jack Hannahan, 3b, Cincinnati, to a $1 million, one-year contract.

 

[CNOTES]

MLB Calendar


March 31, 2015


April 1 - Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2014 salary.


April 5 - Opening day, St. Louis at Chicago Cubs. Active rosters reduced to 25 players.


May 20-21 - Owners' meeting, New York.


June 8 - Amateur draft begins.


July 14 - All-Star game, Cincinnati.


July 17 - Last day to sign for amateur draft picks subject to deadline.


July 26 - Hall of Fame inductions, Cooperstown, N.Y.


July 31 - Last day to trade a player without securing waivers.


Sept. 1 - Active rosters expand to 40 players.


November TBA - Deadline for teams to make qualifying offers to their eligible former players who became free agents, fifth day after World Series.


November TBA - Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offers, 12th day after World Series.


Dec. 2 - Last day for teams to offer 2016 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters.


Dec. 7-10 - Winter meetings, Nashville, Tenn.

 

[CNOTES]

Remaining Free Agents


March 31, 2015


NEW YORK (AP) -The 16 remaining free agents:


BOSTON (1) - Ryan Dempster, rhp.


CHICAGO (1) - Paul Konerko, 1b.


CLEVELAND (1) - Jason Giambi, 1b.


KANSAS CITY (2) - Raul Ibanez, of; Josh Willingham, of.


LOS ANGELES (2) - Sean Burnett, lhp; John McDonald, ss.


NEW YORK (2) - Rich Hill, lhp; Derek Jeter, ss.


---


ATLANTA (1) - Ryan Doumit, c.


LOS ANGELES (1) - Josh Beckett, rhp.


MILWAUKEE (1) - Lyle Overbay, 1b.


NEW YORK (1) - Bobby Abreu, of.


ST. LOUIS (1) - Mark Ellis, 2b.


WASHINGTON (2) - Scott Hairston, of; Rafael Soriano, rhp.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 Baseball Millionaires, Preliminary List


March 31, 2015


NEW YORK (AP) -The 2015 salaries for the 499 major league baseball players on active rosters, disabled lists and the restricted list as of 3 p.m. EDT on March 31 earning $1 million or more. Figures were obtained by The Associated Press from management and player sources and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses and other guaranteed income. For some players, parts of salaries deferred without interest are discounted to reflect present-day values.


Player, Club Salary


1, Clayton Kershaw, LAD $31,000,000


2, Justin Verlander, Det 28,000,000


3, Zack Greinke, LAD 27,000,000


4, Josh Hamilton, LAA 25,400,000


5, Ryan Howard, Phi 25,000,000


(tie) Cliff Lee, Phi 25,000,000


7, Felix Hernandez, Sea 24,857,143


8, CC Sabathia, NYY 24,285,714


9, Robinson Cano, Sea 24,000,000


(tie) Prince Fielder, Tex 24,000,000


(tie) Albert Pujols, LAA 24,000,000


12, Cole Hamels, Phi 23,500,000


13, Mark Teixeira, NYY 23,125,000


14, Joe Mauer, Min 23,000,000


15, Miguel Cabrera, Det 22,000,000


(tie) Jose Reyes, Tor 22,000,000


(tie) Alex Rodriguez, NYY 22,000,000


(tie) Masahiro Tanaka, NYY 22,000,000


19, Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 21,857,143


20, Jayson Werth, Was 21,571,429


21, Carl Crawford, LAD 21,357,143


22, Matt Kemp, SD 21,250,000


23, Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY 21,142,857


24, Matt Cain, SF 20,833,333


25, Mark Buehrle, Tor 20,000,000


(tie) Jon Lester, Cubs 20,000,000


(tie) Troy Tulowitzki, Col 20,000,000


28, David Price, Det 19,750,000


(tie) Hanley Ramirez, Bos 19,750,000


30, Adam Wainwright, StL 19,500,000


31, David Wright, NYM 19,347,171


32, Hunter Pence, SF 18,700,000


33, C.J. Wilson, LAA 18,500,000


34, Jered Weaver, LAA 18,200,000


35, Andre Ethier, LAD 18,000,000


(tie) Tim Lincecum, SF 18,000,000


37, Pablo Sandoval, Bos 17,600,000


38, Buster Posey, SF 17,277,778


39, Max Scherzer, Was 17,142,857


40, Brian McCann, NYY 17,000,000


41, Anibal Sanchez, Det 16,800,000


42, Jordan Zimmermann, Was 16,500,000


43, Carlos Gonzalez, Col 16,428,571


44, Matt Holliday, StL 16,227,958


45, Adrian Beltre, Tex 16,000,000


(tie) Curtis Granderson, NYM 16,000,000


(tie) Ian Kinsler, Det 16,000,000


(tie) Mike Napoli, Bos 16,000,000


(tie) David Ortiz, Bos 16,000,000


50, John Danks, WSox 15,750,000


51, Elvis Andrus, Tex 15,333,333


52, Yadier Molina, StL 15,200,000


53, Melvin Upton, Atl 15,050,000


54, Carlos Beltran, NYY 15,000,000


(tie) Jhonny Peralta, StL 15,000,000


(tie) Nick Swisher, Cle 15,000,000


57, Justin Upton, SD 14,708,333


58, Nelson Cruz, Sea 14,250,000


59, Jose Bautista, Tor 14,000,000


(tie) Shin-soo Choo, Tex 14,000,000


(tie) Victor Martinez, Det 14,000,000


(tie) Aramis Ramirez, Mil 14,000,000


(tie) Joey Votto, Cin 14,000,000


(tie) Ryan Zimmerman, Was 14,000,000


65, Alex Gordon, KC 13,750,000


66, Michael Bourn, Cle 13,500,000


(tie) Ervin Santana, Min 13,500,000


68, Ryan Braun, Mil 13,398,611


69, Adam Jones, Bal 13,307,069


70, Matt Harrison, Tex 13,200,000


71, Melky Cabrera, WSox 13,000,000


(tie) Yovani Gallardo, Tex 13,000,000


(tie) Chase Headley, NYY 13,000,000


(tie) Edwin Jackson, Cubs 13,000,000


(tie) Scott Kazmir, Oak 13,000,000


(tie) Jonathan Papelbon, Phi 13,000,000


(tie) Shane Victorino, Bos 13,000,000


78, Jorge De La Rosa, Col 12,500,000


(tie) Brett Gardner, NYY 12,500,000


(tie) Brandon McCarthy, LAD 12,500,000


(tie) Rick Porcello, Bos 12,500,000


82, Clay Buchholz, Bos 12,250,000


83, Matt Garza, Mil 12,209,425


84, Trevor Cahill, Ari 12,200,000


85, Dustin Pedroia, Bos 12,142,349


86, Brandon Phillips, Cin 12,083,333


87, Jay Bruce, Cin 12,041,667


88, R.A. Dickey, Tor 12,000,000


(tie) Aaron Hill, Ari 12,000,000


(tie) Tim Hudson, SF 12,000,000


(tie) Adam LaRoche, WSox 12,000,000


(tie) Miguel Montero, Cubs 12,000,000


(tie) Ricky Nolasco, Min 12,000,000


94, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bal 11,923,103


95, Francisco Liriano, Pit 11,666,667


96, Evan Longoria, Tam 11,500,018


97, Rusney Castillo, Bos 11,400,000


(tie) Doug Fister, Was 11,400,000


99, J.J. Hardy, Bal 11,209,425


100, Gio Gonzalez, Was 11,100,000


101, Bartolo Colon, NYM 11,000,000


(tie) Coco Crisp, Oak 11,000,000


(tie) Ian Desmond, Was 11,000,000


(tie) Dan Haren, Fla 11,000,000


(tie) Kyle Lohse, Mil 11,000,000


(tie) Nick Markakis, Atl 11,000,000


(tie) Martin Prado, Fla 11,000,000


(tie) Jimmy Rollins, LAD 11,000,000


109, Yoenis Cespedes, Det 10,500,000


(tie) Torii Hunter, Min 10,500,000


111, Angel Pagan, SF 10,250,000


112, Andrew McCutchen, Pit 10,208,333


113, Brett Anderson, LAD 10,000,000


(tie) Homer Bailey, Cin 10,000,000


(tie) Johnny Cueto, Cin 10,000,000


(tie) Yu Darvish, Tex 10,000,000


(tie) Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 10,000,000


(tie) Scott Feldman, Hou 10,000,000


(tie) Joe Nathan, Det 10,000,000


(tie) Alexei Ramirez, WSox 10,000,000


(tie) David Robertson, WSox 10,000,000


(tie) James Shields, SD 10,000,000


(tie) Chase Utley, Phi 10,000,000


124, Howie Kendrick, LAD 9,850,000


(tie) Ian Kennedy, SD 9,850,000


126, Jeff Samardzija, WSox 9,800,000


127, Mike Leake, Cin 9,775,000


128, Bronson Arroyo, Ari 9,500,000


(tie) Dexter Fowler, Cubs 9,500,000


(tie) Justin Masterson, Bos 9,500,000


(tie) Alex Rios, KC 9,500,000


(tie) Cody Ross, Ari 9,500,000


133, Mat Latos, Fla 9,400,000


134, Jaime Garcia, StL 9,375,000


135, Craig Kimbrel, Atl 9,250,000


136, Phil Hughes, Min 9,200,000


137, Jonathan Broxton, Mil 9,000,000


(tie) Jeremy Guthrie, KC 9,000,000


(tie) Jason Hammel, Cubs 9,000,000


(tie) Andrew Miller, NYY 9,000,000


(tie) Jake Peavy, SF 9,000,000


(tie) Denard Span, Was 9,000,000


(tie) Koji Uehara, Bos 9,000,000


144, Freddie Freeman, Atl 8,859,375


145, Jason Heyward, StL 8,800,000


(tie) Bud Norris, Bal 8,800,000


147, Erick Aybar, LAA 8,750,000


148, Jose Abreu, WSox 8,666,667


(tie) James Loney, Tam 8,666,667


150, A.J. Burnett, Pit 8,500,000


(tie) Michael Cuddyer, NYM 8,500,000


(tie) Brandon League, LAD 8,500,000


(tie) Carlos Ruiz, Phi 8,500,000


(tie) Jason Vargas, KC 8,500,000


155, Tyler Clippard, Oak 8,300,000


156, Matt Wieters, Bal 8,275,000


157, Greg Holland, KC 8,250,000


158, Joaquin Benoit, SD 8,232,596


159, Aroldis Chapman, Cin 8,050,000


160, Marlon Byrd, Cin 8,000,000


(tie) Carlos Gomez, Mil 8,000,000


(tie) Jed Lowrie, Hou 8,000,000


(tie) Charlie Morton, Pit 8,000,000


(tie) Daniel Murphy, NYM 8,000,000


(tie) Carlos Quentin, SD 8,000,000


(tie) Colby Rasmus, Hou 8,000,000


(tie) Neil Walker, Pit 8,000,000


168, Juan Uribe, LAD 7,925,000


169, Ben Zobrist, Oak 7,750,000


170, Austin Jackson, Sea 7,700,000


171, Asdrubal Cabrera, Tam 7,500,000


(tie) Omar Infante, KC 7,500,000


(tie) Adam Lind, Mil 7,500,000


(tie) Michael Morse, Fla 7,500,000


(tie) Edinson Volquez, KC 7,500,000


176, Kenley Jansen, LAD 7,425,000


177, Derek Holland, Tex 7,400,000


(tie) Stephen Strasburg, Was 7,400,000


179, Grant Balfour, Tam 7,315,956


180, Justin Morneau, Col 7,250,000


181, Cameron Maybin, SD 7,100,000


182, Jonathon Niese, NYM 7,050,000


183, Wade Davis, KC 7,000,000


(tie) Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea 7,000,000


(tie) Lance Lynn, StL 7,000,000


(tie) Russell Martin, Tor 7,000,000


(tie) Fernando Rodney, Sea 7,000,000


(tie) Jar. Saltalamacchia, Fla 7,000,000


(tie) Joakim Soria, Det 7,000,000


(tie) Huston Street, LAA 7,000,000


191, Madison Bumgarner, SF 6,916,667


192, Mark Trumbo, Ari 6,900,000


193, Starlin Castro, Cubs 6,857,143


194, J.A. Happ, Sea 6,700,000


195, Billy Butler, Oak 6,666,667


196, Steve Cishek, Fla 6,650,000


197, Sean Marshall, Cin 6,625,000


198, Alex Guerrero, LAD 6,500,000


(tie) Kendrys Morales, KC 6,500,000


(tie) Brandon Moss, Cle 6,500,000


(tie) Giancarlo Stanton, Fla 6,500,000


202, David Freese, LAA 6,425,000


203, Eric O'Flaherty, Oak 6,275,000


204, Gerardo Parra, Mil 6,237,500


205, Yasiel Puig, LAD 6,214,286


206, Carlos Santana, Cle 6,200,000


207, Mike Trout, LAA 6,083,333


208, Jeremy Affeldt, SF 6,000,000


(tie) Luke Gregerson, Hou 6,000,000


(tie) Chris Johnson, Atl 6,000,000


(tie) David Murphy, Cle 6,000,000


(tie) Sergio Romo, SF 6,000,000


(tie) Chris Sale, WSox 6,000,000


(tie) Seth Smith, Sea 6,000,000


(tie) Kurt Suzuki, Min 6,000,000


216, Michael Brantley, Cle 5,875,000


217, Drew Stubbs, Col 5,825,000


218, Pedro Alvarez, Pit 5,750,000


219, Drew Storen, Was 5,700,000


220, Travis Wood, Cubs 5,685,000


221, Eric Hosmer, KC 5,650,000


222, Mike Minor, Atl 5,600,000


223, Alfredo Simon, Det 5,550,000


224, Chris Iannetta, LAA 5,525,000


225, Allen Craig, Bos 5,500,000


(tie) J.P. Howell, LAD 5,500,000


(tie) Kyle Kendrick, Col 5,500,000


(tie) Boone Logan, Col 5,500,000


(tie) Pat Neshek, Hou 5,500,000


(tie) Mike Pelfrey, Min 5,500,000


(tie) Yasmany Tomas, Ari 5,500,000


232, Alex Avila, Det 5,400,000


(tie) Mark Melancon, Pit 5,400,000


234, Cory Luebke, SD 5,375,000


235, Dillon Gee, NYM 5,300,000


236, Anthony Rizzo, Cubs 5,285,714


237, Tyson Ross, SD 5,250,000


(tie) Joe Smith, LAA 5,250,000


239, Santiago Casilla, SF 5,166,667


240, David DeJesus, Tam 5,125,000


241, Chris Capuano, NYY 5,000,000


(tie) Rajai Davis, Det 5,000,000


(tie) Alejandro De Aza, Bal 5,000,000


(tie) Stephen Drew, NYY 5,000,000


(tie) Yunel Escobar, Was 5,000,000


(tie) Aaron Harang, Phi 5,000,000


(tie) Garrett Jones, NYY 5,000,000


(tie) Nate McLouth, Was 5,000,000


(tie) Dioner Navarro, Tor 5,000,000


(tie) Brad Ziegler, Ari 5,000,000


251, Addison Reed, Ari 4,875,000


252, Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD 4,833,333


253, Casey McGehee, SF 4,800,000


(tie) Trevor Plouffe, Min 4,800,000


255, Wei-Yin Chen, Bal 4,750,000


(tie) Matt Joyce, LAA 4,750,000


(tie) Leonys Martin, Tex 4,750,000


(tie) Edward Mujica, Bos 4,750,000


259, Tommy Hunter, Bal 4,650,000


(tie) Glen Perkins, Min 4,650,000


261, Zach Duke, WSox 4,500,000


(tie) Jason Motte, Cubs 4,500,000


(tie) Kyle Seager, Sea 4,500,000


264, Jason Grilli, Atl 4,375,000


265, Chris Tillman, Bal 4,315,000


266, Josh Donaldson, Tor 4,300,000


267, Jeremy Hellickson, Ari 4,275,000


268, A.J. Ellis, LAD 4,250,000


(tie) Darren O'Day, Bal 4,250,000


(tie) Will Venable, SD 4,250,000


271, Lucas Duda, NYM 4,200,000


(tie) Luis Valbuena, Hou 4,200,000


273, Chris Carter, Hou 4,175,000


274, Jason Kipnis, Cle 4,166,667


275, Neftali Feliz, Tex 4,125,000


(tie) Jon Jay, StL 4,125,000


277, Josh Reddick, Oak 4,100,000


(tie) Ben Revere, Phi 4,100,000


279, Andrew Cashner, SD 4,050,000


280, Henderson Alvarez, Fla 4,000,000


(tie) Nori Aoki, SF 4,000,000


(tie) Jason Castro, Hou 4,000,000


(tie) Alex Cobb, Tam 4,000,000


(tie) Gavin Floyd, Cle 4,000,000


(tie) Jonny Gomes, Atl 4,000,000


(tie) Luke Hochevar, KC 4,000,000


(tie) Colby Lewis, Tex 4,000,000


(tie) Javier Lopez, SF 4,000,000


(tie) Ryan Vogelsong, SF 4,000,000


(tie) Tsuyoshi Wada, Cubs 4,000,000


291, Marco Estrada, Tor 3,900,000


292, Ike Davis, Oak 3,800,000


293, Matt Carpenter, StL 3,750,000


(tie) Todd Frazier, Cin 3,750,000


(tie) Bryce Harper, Was 3,750,000


296, Bobby Parnell, NYM 3,700,000


(tie) Steve Pearce, Bal 3,700,000


298, Wade Miley, Bos 3,666,667


299, Jake Arrieta, Cubs 3,630,000


300, Brandon Belt, SF 3,600,000


(tie) Gregor Blanco, SF 3,600,000


302, Jake McGee, Tam 3,550,000


(tie) Wilson Ramos, Was 3,550,000


304, Mike Aviles, Cle 3,500,000


(tie) Matt Belisle, StL 3,500,000


(tie) Ryan Hanigan, Bos 3,500,000


(tie) Casey Janssen, Was 3,500,000


(tie) Manny Parra, Cin 3,500,000


(tie) Francisco Rodriguez, Mil 3,500,000


(tie) Matt Thornton, Was 3,500,000


311, Ross Detwiler, Tex 3,450,000


312, Nathan Eovaldi, NYY 3,300,000


(tie) Ivan Nova, NYY 3,300,000


314, Miguel Gonzalez, Bal 3,275,000


(tie) Cliff Pennington, Ari 3,275,000


316, Zach Britton, Bal 3,200,000


(tie) Brian Matusz, Bal 3,200,000


(tie) Garrett Richards, LAA 3,200,000


319, Brandon Crawford, SF 3,175,000


(tie) John Jaso, Tam 3,175,000


321, Andrelton Simmons, Atl 3,142,857


322, Antonio Bastardo, Pit 3,100,000


(tie) Nick Hundley, Col 3,100,000


(tie) Desmond Jennings, Tam 3,100,000


(tie) Jonathan Lucroy, Mil 3,100,000


(tie) Matt Moore, Tam 3,100,000


327, Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 3,083,333


328, Kevin Jepsen, Tam 3,025,000


329, Willie Bloomquist, Sea 3,000,000


(tie) Emilio Bonifacio, WSox 3,000,000


(tie) Alberto Callaspo, Atl 3,000,000


(tie) Randy Choate, StL 3,000,000


(tie) Neal Cotts, Mil 3,000,000


(tie) Alcides Escobar, KC 3,000,000


(tie) Maicer Izturis, Tor 3,000,000


(tie) J.D. Martinez, Det 3,000,000


(tie) Chad Qualls, Hou 3,000,000


338, Mitch Moreland, Tex 2,950,000


339, Michael Saunders, Tor 2,875,000


340, Shawn Kelley, SD 2,835,000


341, Josh Harrison, Pit 2,800,000


(tie) Wilin Rosario, Col 2,800,000


343, Tommy Milone, Min 2,775,000


344, Brandon Beachy, LAD 2,750,000


(tie) Ryan Webb, Bal 2,750,000


346, Lorenzo Cain, KC 2,725,000


(tie) Logan Morrison, Sea 2,725,000


348, Brian Duensing, Min 2,700,000


349, Jose Altuve, Hou 2,687,500


350, Tyler Flowers, WSox 2,675,000


(tie) Jordan Walden, StL 2,675,000


352, Jorge Soler, Cubs 2,666,667


353, Drew Smyly, Tam 2,650,000


354, Mike Moustakas, KC 2,640,000


355, Dustin Ackley, Sea 2,600,000


(tie) John Axford, Col 2,600,000


(tie) Chris Denorfia, Cubs 2,600,000


358, Jenrry Mejia, NYM 2,595,000


359, Darwin Barney, LAD 2,525,000


(tie) Devin Mesoraco, Cin 2,525,000


(tie) Pedro Strop, Cubs 2,525,000


362, Chris Coghlan, Cubs 2,505,000


(tie) Justin Ruggiano, Sea 2,505,000


364, Domonic Brown, Phi 2,500,000


(tie) Dee Gordon, Fla 2,500,000


(tie) Corey Hart, Pit 2,500,000


(tie) Jung-ho Kang, Pit 2,500,000


(tie) Brandon Morrow, SD 2,500,000


(tie) Joel Peralta, LAD 2,500,000


(tie) Oliver Perez, Ari 2,500,000


(tie) Ryan Raburn, Cle 2,500,000


(tie) Anthony Rendon, Was 2,500,000


(tie) David Ross, Cubs 2,500,000


(tie) Skip Schumaker, Cin 2,500,000


(tie) Justin Turner, LAD 2,500,000


(tie) Jerome Williams, Phi 2,500,000


(tie) Chris Young, NYY 2,500,000


378, Brett Cecil, Tor 2,475,000


(tie) Jordan Lyles, Col 2,475,000


380, Vance Worley, Pit 2,450,000


381, Danny Duffy, KC 2,425,000


382, Jerry Blevins, NYM 2,400,000


(tie) Everth Cabrera, Bal 2,400,000


(tie) Marc Rzepczynski, Cle 2,400,000


(tie) Tony Sipp, Hou 2,400,000


386, Zack Cozart, Cin 2,350,000


(tie) Mike Dunn, Fla 2,350,000


388, Carlos Carrasco, Cle 2,337,500


389, Juan Nicasio, LAD 2,300,000


390, Hector Santiago, LAA 2,290,000


391, Lonnie Chisenhall, Cle 2,250,000


(tie) Phil Coke, Cubs 2,250,000


(tie) LaTroy Hawkins, Col 2,250,000


(tie) Craig Stammen, Was 2,250,000


(tie) Junichi Tazawa, Bos 2,250,000


(tie) Delmon Young, Bal 2,250,000


397, Tim Stauffer, Min 2,200,000


398, Chris Heisey, LAD 2,160,000


399, Jesse Chavez, Oak 2,150,000


400, Jeff Baker, Fla 2,100,000


(tie) Welington Castillo, Cubs 2,100,000


(tie) Yusmeiro Petit, SF 2,100,000


(tie) Michael Pineda, NYY 2,100,000


(tie) Travis Snider, Bal 2,100,000


405, Gordon Beckham, WSox 2,000,000


(tie) Craig Breslow, Bos 2,000,000


(tie) Brian Dozier, Min 2,000,000


(tie) Jedd Gyorko, SD 2,000,000


(tie) David Hernandez, Ari 2,000,000


(tie) Kris Medlen, KC 2,000,000


(tie) A.J. Pierzynski, Atl 2,000,000


(tie) Mark Reynolds, StL 2,000,000


(tie) Brendan Ryan, NYY 2,000,000


(tie) Jon Singleton, Hou 2,000,000


(tie) Grady Sizemore, Phi 2,000,000


(tie) Ichiro Suzuki, Fla 2,000,000


(tie) Carlos Villanueva, StL 2,000,000


(tie) Rickie Weeks, Sea 2,000,000


419, Aaron Crow, Fla 1,975,000


420, Hector Noesi, WSox 1,950,000


421, Trevor Bauer, Cle 1,940,000


422, Adeiny Hechavarria, Fla 1,925,000


(tie) Brett Lawrie, Oak 1,925,000


424, Sam LeCure, Cin 1,900,000


(tie) Sean Rodriguez, Pit 1,900,000


426, Ruben Tejada, NYM 1,880,000


427, Daniel Nava, Bos 1,850,000


428, Danny Espinosa, Was 1,800,000


429, Sam Fuld, Oak 1,750,000


(tie) Salvador Perez, KC 1,750,000


(tie) Tony Watson, Pit 1,750,000


432, Al Alburquerque, Det 1,725,000


433, Raisel Iglesias, Cin 1,714,286


434, Wesley Wright, Bal 1,700,000


435, Danny Valencia, Tor 1,675,000


436, Yonder Alonso, SD 1,650,000


(tie) Peter Bourjos, StL 1,650,000


438, Craig Gentry, Oak 1,600,000


(tie) Kelvin Herrera, KC 1,600,000


(tie) Jim Johnson, Atl 1,600,000


441, Jordan Schafer, Min 1,550,000


(tie) Bryan Shaw, Cle 1,550,000


443, Chad Billingsley, Phi 1,500,000


(tie) Daniel Descalso, Col 1,500,000


(tie) Jeff Mathis, Fla 1,500,000


(tie) Alexi Ogando, Bos 1,500,000


(tie) Ryan Sweeney, Cubs 1,500,000


448, Esmil Rogers, NYY 1,480,000


449, Tim Collins, KC 1,475,000


450, Joaquin Arias, SF 1,450,000


(tie) Josh Collmenter, Ari 1,450,000


(tie) John Mayberry Jr., NYM 1,450,000


453, Jose Iglesias, Det 1,443,750


454, Rex Brothers, Col 1,400,000


(tie) Brayan Pena, Cin 1,400,000


(tie) David Phelps, Fla 1,400,000


(tie) Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea 1,400,000


458, Casey Fien, Min 1,375,000


(tie) Dale Thayer, SD 1,375,000


460, Noel Salas, LAA 1,370,000


461, Starling Marte, Pit 1,333,333


462, Cesar Ramos, LAA 1,312,500


463, Clint Barmes, SD 1,300,000


(tie) Charlie Furbush, Sea 1,300,000


(tie) Adam Ottavino, Col 1,300,000


466, David Carpenter, NYY 1,275,000


467, Jason Frasor, KC 1,250,000


(tie) Radhames Liz, Pit 1,250,000


(tie) Martin Perez, Tex 1,250,000


470, Jarrod Dyson, KC 1,225,000


(tie) Chris Stewart, Pit 1,225,000


472, Jose Lobaton, Was 1,200,000


(tie) Rene Rivera, Tam 1,200,000


474, Chris Archer, Tam 1,166,667


(tie) Julio Teheran, Atl 1,166,667


476, Alexi Amarista, SD 1,150,000


(tie) Vinnie Pestano, LAA 1,150,000


478, Logan Forsythe, Tam 1,100,000


(tie) Travis Ishikawa, SF 1,100,000


480, Michael McKenry, Col 1,087,600


481, Fernando Abad, Oak 1,087,500


482, Yan Gomes, Cle 1,083,333


483, Hyun Conger, Hou 1,075,000


(tie) Ryan Flaherty, Bal 1,075,000


(tie) Jared Hughes, Pit 1,075,000


(tie) Eric Sogard, Oak 1,075,000


487, Marwin Gonzalez, Hou 1,062,500


488, Eduardo Nunez, Min 1,025,000


489, Burke Badenhop, Cin 1,000,000


(tie) Joba Chamberlain, Det 1,000,000


(tie) Tyler Chatwood, Col 1,000,000


(tie) Kevin Frandsen, Was 1,000,000


(tie) Kyuji Fujikawa, Tex 1,000,000


(tie) Tom Gorzelanny, Det 1,000,000


(tie) Josh Johnson, SD 1,000,000


(tie) Alex Presley, Hou 1,000,000


(tie) Jose Quintana, WSox 1,000,000


(tie) Justin Smoak, Tor 1,000,000


(tie) Jacob Turner, Cubs 1,000,000

 

[CNOTES]

April Pitchers Report


April 4, 2015


Major League Baseball trades places with March Madness as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles – good month pitchers.


Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.


Note- * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s April list.


GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:


Buchholz, Clay - 10-5 (6-3 H)


Boston decided to maximize Buchholz’s early season value by making him their opening day starter. Long on talent and inconsistency, the BoSox right-hander needs to focus and eliminate distractions, which is something he’s struggled with his whole career, except for mostly in April.


Bumgarner, Madison - 11-5 (6-1 A)


When looking at baseball from the start of the season until Halloween, Clayton Kershaw has somebody who can steal his thunder as the game’s best pitcher. His World Series performance was for the ages and he’s never been too bad the start the season either with his array of fastballs, cutters and changeups.


Gonzalez, Gio - 13-4 (8-1 H)


Throughout his career, Gonzalez has started fast and been able to mix and match pitches effectively. Though his velocity was off a little in the second half of last season, his command improved and walks dropped. He’s now arguably the worst starting pitcher in Washington which tells you about their staff. Gonzalez has been money at home throughout his career.


Greinke, Zack - 11-2 (6-1 H)


To borrow from Dos Equis beer, when on the mound, Zack Greinke might be the most interesting man in the world - or at least baseball. The fact is Greinke is just really good at throwing a baseball, has a creative mind and taught himself variations of arm angles and grip pressure and takes great pride in his hitting. Whatever team he has been on, he’s made it almost impossible to bet against him at home.


Guthrie, Jeremy - 10-4 (5-1 H)


Since becoming a starter in 2007, this durable right-hander has thrown at least 175 innings each season (five of the last six 200 or more). For almost any team in baseball Guthrie is the ideal No.4 or 5 starter and his pitch to contact is a perfect match in Kansas City when the defenders are like vacuum cleaners and clean everything up.


*Hammel, Jason - 13-5 (5-1 H)


Middle of the rotation starter who actually wanted to return and pitch for the Cubs, after starting last season at Wrigley before being traded to Oakland. Hammel is not going to overpower hitters, but if he keeps the ball in the yard, he can be effective. In his major league career the 32-year has been a fast starter.


Hudson, Tim - 10-3 (8-0 H)


Hudson will be 40 years old this season, but still throws strikes and coaxes ground balls to get batters out. It would make sense this juncture of his career he would be more effective early in the season compared to later in the year.


Lincecum, Tim - 10-5 (5-2 H)


Lincecum is back in the starting rotation for San Francisco and will remain there as long as he does his job. He spent the off-season working with his dad, who helped design his unusual throwing style. The spring results were mixed, so let’s see if Tiny Tim can hang on to his slot in the rotation with a strong start.


*Lohse, Kyle - 12-4 (6-2 H)


Lohse is yet another hurler who is at his best when at full strength. Milwaukee’s opening day pitcher successfully made the transition from thrower to pitcher and has complete command of the strike zone with his tight mechanics.


Lynn, Lance - 12-3 (8-2 A)


The 6’5 right-hander last season decided to use less of his spotty off-speed pitches and instead focused on getting more movement on his two or four-seam fastballs and lowered his ERA by more than a run to 2.74. Lynn is part of the reason St. Louis seldom gets off to rocky starts.


Miley, Wade- 9-4 (5-2 A)


Miley pitched for a bad Arizona outfit last year and his focus suffered, with career-highs in ERA, hits allowed and balls over the fence. The lefty has a fresh start in Boston with a renovated squad in search of a division pennant.


Nicasio, Juan - 10-5 (6-2 H)


Will start the season in the Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen.


Nova, Ivan - 8-4 (5-1 H)


In the midst of returning from Tommy John surgery, no exact timetable is set for Nova’s return.


Peavy, Jake - 10-5 (6-3 H)


Not the hard thrower he used to be, Peavy has to keep the ball down and change speeds more frequently to get batters out. When he settles in groove, can string together a number of quality starts.


*Shields, James - 11-5 (8-3 A)


As reliable and consistent as they come, Shields is an ideal No. 2 or 3 pitcher. Though his famous changeup was not as good as prior years, he found the cutter to be his out pitch in 2014. Should flourish in San Diego.


Zimmermann, Jordan - 10-5 (6-3 H)


Among the finest starters in the National League, Zimmermann in unyielding to opposing hitters in working the strike zone and seldom helps them out in averaging less than two walks per nine innings.


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:


Bedard, Erik - 3-9 (1-4 H)


The Dodgers non-roster pitcher is expected to miss four to six weeks with a strain of the same back muscle that shelved Clayton Kershaw for five weeks last season.


Cahill, Trevor - 4-9 (2-7 A)


Cahill was traded from Arizona to Atlanta on April 3rd. Though only 27 years old, this former 18-game winner has recently been in the minors and a big league starter and reliever and not having much success doing anything well. His problem is being a sinker ball pitcher and lacking command in the strike zone.


Cain, Matt - 4-10 (2-8 A)


The San Francisco workhorse finally gave in to the pain and had elbow surgery and has been slow to recover this spring, still having some “discomfort”. Cain as his record shows is typically a slow starter anyways and could be in worse shape to begin 2015.


Hamels, Cole - 4-8 (1-5 H)


The Phillies lefthander will not be on their roster the entire season as the Phils are waiting for the perfect deal to trade Hamels. His slow starts are mostly attributable to not having a feel for his complete arsenal of pitches in April and performs better when the weather heats up.


*Jackson, Edwin - 4-12 (2-6 H)


The Cubs are stuck with this veteran righty having given him a dumb contract back in 2013. Just think, how many pitchers would still be in the big leagues after 11 years with a career 84-104 record, an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.46?


Volquez, Edinson - 5-11 (1-6 A)


Now with his sixth different team, the 31-year right-hander was 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA with Pittsburgh last year, his best season since 2008 and he signed a two-year free agent deal with Kansas City. His surprising campaign came when Pirates coaches noticed a rushed delivery was elevating his pitches and slowed him down, leading to last season’s results. Will Volquez stay the course or return to old habits?

 

[CNOTES]

American League Best Bets


April 3, 2015


Editor's Note: Don't miss out on pro baseball winners in 2015 from Bruce Marshall on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!


National Leauge


AL EAST


BEST BET...Can we really name a favorite in the East? Some preview publications have picked the division winner to finish with as few as 83 wins. But there still looks to be some value on the board, and despite continuing to lose star-level players via trade and free agency, the Tampa Bay Rays (78 ½) somehow continue to contend. Now, manager Joe Maddon is also gone (off to the Cubs), as is rock star GM Andrew Friedman (to the Dodgers), but the team has promoted from within to maintain continuity, and many contenders would kill to get the Rays pitching staff. Especially a deep starting rotation that figures to get even better in June when Matt Moore is scheduled to return from Tommy John surgery. We aren't too alarmed that a couple of other starters (Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly) are beginning the season on the DL, as their injuries are regarded as minor and both should be activated by mid-April. So as long as Tampa Bay doesn't sink with new skipper Kevin Cash in the first couple of weeks, it ought to be fine. The Rays are still strong at the corners with 3B Evan Longoria and 1B James Loney, and savvy vet SS Asdrubal Cabrera could easily prove an upgrade from error-prone Yunel Escobar. Defensively, the outfield might have more speed than any in the league, with offseason addition RF Steven Souza (from the Nats) keeping Port Charlotte abuzz in March, as did C Rene Rivera. As long as ex-Angel Kevin Jepsen can handle closer chores, the young outfielders don't get too overwhelmed, and the team can avoid the injury problems that have hampered it in the past, the Rays can hang in the race deep into September. And, of course, we highly recommend Tampa Bay games on the MLB TV package, with the always-excellent play-by-play man DeWayne Staats still one of the best in the business. It's an "over" for us at the Trop.


OTHERS: We have been bullish lately on the Baltimore Orioles (82 ½), who were able to play long-ball last year (MLB-best 211 homers) and not worry about manufacturing runs. But we are not as convinced the same formula works this season. That's partly because the Birds could be one team at risk of getting buried in the standings before April is complete. Long before camp broke at Sarasota, manager Buck Showalter was dealing with several injuries, with SS J.J. Hardy suffering from shoulder problems and slated to begin the season on the DL, and C Matt Weiters still recovering from Tommy John surgery and not expected to return to active duty for at least a month, maybe longer. Showalter also lost plenty of offensive pop in the offseason when RF Nick Markakis (to Atlanta) and LF/DH Nelson Cruz (to Seattle) left in free agency, and the bullpen could be weakened by the departure of key set-up man Andrew Miller (to the Yankees). The Birds did not make many significant additions in the winter, hoping to fill those gaps from within and anticipating healthier years from Weiters, 3B Manny Machado, and 1B Chris Davis, who did not play a game together last season. Still, the O's don't have a legit leadoff man, and have serious holes now in both corner OF slots, second base, and perhaps first base, where Davis is shaky in the field. Moreover, among the injured and departed are three Gold Gloves, so don't expect the defense to save as many runs as it did a year ago, which could negatively impact a pitching staff that will watch CF Adam Jones act like a windshield wiper between the corner outfielders (especially if Delmon Young is forced to play in left). The farm system is still not producing sufficient talent, so any further spate of injuries could be be devastating, and we suspect Showalter will regret not encouraging the front office to make a stronger attempt at keeping Markakis. Not this year in Baltimore, as we look "under" at Camden Yards.


A lot of people are anticipating another worst-to-first scenario for the Boston Red Sox (86 ½), who won the World Series in 2013 after finishing in the AL East basement in 2012. Now, off of a 71-91 train wreck a year ago, again landing at the foot of the East table as in 2012, the Bosox are supposed to rebound quickly once more? We're not convinced. Granted, GM Ben Cherington shelled out big bucks in the offseason to improve an anemic offense that scored only 634 runs and batted a mere .244, both second-worst in the AL a year ago, with $183 million now invested in FAs 3B Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, who is being moved from his normal SS to in front of the Green Monster in LF in one of the more intriguing position switches in recent memory. Cuban import Rusney Castillo, with all of 10 MLB games under his belt, was supposed to team with rookie Mookie Betts complete the new-look outfield with Ramirez, but Castillo is now slated to open the season at AAA, which puts aging Shane Victorino back in the lineup. Adding Sandoval and Ramirez to an attack that still has key 2013 Series cogs 2B Dustin Pedroia, C Mike Napoli, and DH David Ortiz in the fold does suggest the Bosox ought to improve upon last season's offensive numbers, but that might not matter if the overhauled pitching staff doesn't pull its weight. After failing to lure Jon Lester back to Fenway Park, and unsuccessful (though perhaps still trying) attempting to pry Cole Hamels out of Philadelphia, the Sox have no legit number one starter in a projected rotation that for the moment considers Clay Buchholz its ace and combined for a 44-49 record and 4.55 ERA last season. No wonder Cherington tried so hard to land Lester and Hamels. Moreover, 40-year-old closer Koji Uehara likely opens the season on the DL with hamstring problems that have shut him down in Fort Myers since mid-March. We see far too many question marks to expect the Bosox to repeat their 2013 magic...look "under" at Fenway.


Without being burdened by the misplaced hype of 2013, the Toronto Blue Jays (82 ½) stayed in the wild card race until late September a year ago. Now, we really see if GM Alex Anthopoulos knows what he is doing after a couple of potentially-impactful offseason additions as well as the arrival en masse of a rookie pitching brigade that will likely make or break the season at Rogers Centre. Those live young arms are going to be counted upon in a hurry after one of their brethren, Marcus Stroman, who arrived a year earlier than the rest and impressed as a rookie in 2014 when posting an 11-6 record, suffered a season-ending knee injury in March. But touted rookies righty Aaron Sanchez and lefty Daniel Norris both impressed at Dunedin and likely open the season in the rotation, providing a contrast to graybeard workhorses R.A. Dickey (40 years old) and Mark Buehrle (36 years old), who each recorded more than 200 IP a year ago. While Anthopolous added from within the organization to the pitching staff, he went outside to find more offense in the winter, swinging a trade to bring 3B Josh Donaldson from Oakland and inking Pirates C Russell Martin to an $82 million FA contract. Martin's useful bat will be employed in the second spot in the batting order behind catalyst SS Jose Reyes and appears a perfect fit in front of the formidable trio of RF Jose Bautista, 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion, and Donaldson. We suspect the Jays score enough runs (especially if touted rookie CF Dalton Pompey lives up to his hype) and get ample starting pitching. But sustaining a playoff push might depend upon a bullpen that is hoping Brett Cecil can handle closer duties after Casey Janssen departed in free agency. The aforementioned rookie Sanchez could also end up in the reliever mix in what could be a fluid situation for the first half of the season. Whatever, with the rest of the division looking so suspect, we do not expect the Jays to backslide from last year's 83 wins. With the Maple Leafs missing the playoffs again, the CFL Argos an also-ran last fall, and the Raptors fading, Toronto fans could use some good news, which the Blue Jays deliver with an "over" effort at Rogers Centre.


What has been happening lately with the New York Yankees (81½)? For the Bronx Bombers, it was a pretty quiet offseason, with too much attention focused upon Alex Rodriguez' comeback attempt and not enough elsewhere on a roster loaded with "ifs" at so many positions. As for the 39-year-old A-Rod, he looked good enough the past month in Tampa to land the DH job, but will be seen sparingly in the field, with ex-Padre Chase Headley anchored at 3B. Yet Rodriguez should only be a sidebar story in The Bronx, with many other question marks for manager Joe Girardi due to an everyday roster burdened by durability issues, as keeping the likes of 1B Mark Teixeira, C Brian McCann, RF Carlos Beltran, and yes, even A-Rod, healthy looks to be asking a lot. And we haven't even gotten to the pitching staff, where there is considerable concern about not only former ace CC Sabathia, who missed much of 2014 with knee problems, but projected number one starter Masahiro Tanaka, who opted for rehab over surgery on his elbow in the offseason, and onetime flamethrower Michael Pineda, who has made only 13 starts since 2011 (when he was with Seattle) and missed four months with shoulder problems last season. The most-valued offseason addition is likely to be SP Nathan Eovaldi, over from the Marlins and who could end up leading the staff in wins. And the Yankees are now dealing with life minus Derek Jeter and the leadership he provided on the field and in the clubhouse. No team in the East might be more reflective of the division's plight than the Yanks, who appear an extremely difficult read with all of the question marks, as well as the capacity to swing deals (Cole Hamels, perhaps?) if things start going sideways. We'd rather not get involved, so it's a no-call for us in The Bronx.


AL CENTRAL


BEST BET...We are a bit perplexed why the Kansas City Royals (80 ½) are being dismissed so readily after their surprise World Series visit last fall. Yes, things fell into place in September and October for manager Ned Yost, and there was more outflow than inflow to Kauffman Stadium in the offseason, but this has to be the most mocked defending pennant winner, which won the traditional way (pitching, defense, base running) in a long while. The press has mostly overrated departed staff ace James Shields (to San Diego in free agency) as if he were as important to the Royals as Curt Schilling once was to the Bosox or the Phils. Not true. KC still has a deep rotation featuring Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy, and top offseason addition Edinson Volquez made 19 quality starts for the Pirates last season. After a rocky first two weeks of March in Surprise, the starters settled down en masse the second half of the month. The bullpen, with untouchable closer Greg Holland and set-up men (Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera) with plenty of gas, might still be the AL's best. The defense is solid. And there is nothing wrong with the everyday lineup, which lost DH Billy Butler and RF Nori Aoki, but added RF Alex Rios and DH Kendry Morales, while the likes of LF Alex Gordon, 3B Mike Moustakas, and 1B Eric Hosmer are entering their primes. The Royals, as was evidenced by the ALDS sweep of the Orioles, can also manufacture runs with jackrabbits Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson threats to steal a combined 120 bases. Instead of being pegged at under .500, we think KC might be the best bet in the AL to return to the playoffs. It's a definite "over" for us at the Big K.


OTHERS: Can the Chicago White Sox (81 ½) really make the jump from a distant, 73-89 also-ran to contending status? We think the Chisox will improve, but are not convinced they are ready to make a run at this division. Not for a lack of trying, as an off-season shopping spree that added LF Melky Cabrera, 1B Adam LaRoche, SP Jeff Samardzija, and relievers David Robertson and Zach Duke suggests that Jerry Reinsdorf is serious about putting a winner on the field at The Cell, which hasn't hosted a playoff game since 2008. But there are going to be some questions at the back end of the rotation unless rookie Carlos Rodon, the No. 3 overall pick in last June's draft, is ready to make the immediate jump, because John Danks has lost a lot of his stuff over the past few years and Hector Noesi's penchant for allowing fly balls is a dangerous trait for pitchers on the South Side. The Chisox, who open with three straight weeks of games vs. Central foes, will also likely be doing so without ace Chris Sale, who broke his foot in a freak home accident in late February and saw no Cactus League action. Sale opens the season on the DL, not the place for a staff ace on a team that wants to make a quick start to gain confidence that it can contend. Meanwhile, Robin Ventura will be keeping a close eye on new closer Robertson, whose subpar spring at Camelback Ranch did nothing to suppress rumors of a sore arm. Maybe the offense, decent enough last season, can compensate, now surrounding Cuban power-source 1B Jose Abreu with Cabrera and LaRoche (who probably sees much of the action at DH). But Ventura can't wait much longer for RF Avisail Garcia to begin living up to his potential and support the aforementioned trio. Within this competitive division, we are not sure the Chisox can make such a big jump in wins, so we look "under" at The Cell.


The Minnesota Twins (72 ½) had another tough go last season and finally cut the cord with manager Ron Gardenhire after a fourth straight season with 92 or more losses. The bar is thus set rather low for new skipper Paul Molitor, but there is evidence the Twins might finally be ready to make a move. It won't happen if the staff continues to be as bad as it has been in recent campaigns, especially after the starters have had the worst ERA in the bigs each of the past two years (including a woeful 5.06 mark in 2014) after ranking 29th in 2012. But adding righty Ervin Santana (a 14-game winner in Atlanta last season and Minnesota's highest-priced FA of all-time, at $55 mill for four years) at least solidifies the front end of the rotation with ex-Yankee Phil Hughes, who set a modern MLB record with an 11.63 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season, and Ricky Nolasco, still serviceable if not bothered by arm problems (as was the case last season). If the Twins can improve upon their MLB-worst 4.57 ERA, they'll be part of the way to an improved record. The other part comes with a more efficient offense, which will require 1B Joe Mauer resembling something close to his previous form after hearing unaccustomed boos from the locals in an injury-plagued 2014. Helping out should be the return of familiar face Torii Hunter, who turns 40 in July and moves into RF to add a veteran presence to the lineup while reminding the fans of the better days in Minneapolis during the past decade before Hunter moved to the Angels and Tigers. There is also hope that the middle infield combo of SS Danny Santana and 2B Brian Dozier (just signed to a lucrative contract extension) can be something special, and there will be no holding of breath at the outset for the "arrival" of CF Aaron Hicks, who has disappointed in the starting lineup each of the past two years but was optioned to AAA Rochester on March 28, beaten out by Jordan Schafer. Too soon to begin talking playoffs in the Twin Cities, but top-notch TV combo Dick Bremer and Bert Blyleven might finally have a little something to get excited about after several lean years...look "over" at Target Field.


The Detroit Tigers (84 ½) managed to stay in contention after the retirement of manager Jim Leyland through replacement Brad Ausmus, who was able to win the Central last season before getting quickly hustled out of the playoffs by the Orioles in the ALDS. But making the playoffs for a fifth straight term in Motown might be a dicey proposition. Already, one-time ace Justin Verlander has landed on the DL for the first time in his career due to a triceps strain, stalling a recovery from his career-worst season in 2014. The Tigers have been counting upon a big comeback by Verlander, who was slowed by offseason surgery a year ago and whose fastball had already lost considerable zip the previous year in 2013. The mid-career version of Verlander has not been blowing away hitters as in previous years, but don't feel too bad for him...his girlfriend is supermodel Kate Upton. The rotation was already minus ace Max Scherzer, who moved to the Nats in free agency, and has also lost Rick Porcello (to the Bosox). And while many believe having David Price in the fold from the outset effectively replaces Scherzer, the ex-Ray was not overpowering for Detroit after his trade acquisition last summer. With a new look at the bottom end of the rotation (ex-Yankee Shane Greene and ex-Red Alfredo Simon), we are not convinced the Tigers are going to be able to consistently turn over leads in the late innings to Joakim Soria and Joe Nathan, either. The everyday lineup could also begin to show some signs of wear and tear, especially with 1B Miguel Cabrera (ankle bone spur and stress fracture repair) and DH Victor Martinez (knee surgery in February), both well into their 30s, off of winter surgeries, and making little impact in March at Lakeland. Expect Ausmus to do a lot of lineup juggling, especially in April, though adding ex-A's and Red Sox OF Yoenis Cespedes provides some flexibility. No matter, the Tigers hardly look the sure things that they have been in recent seasons, and even with a manageable win total, we're going to look "under" at Comerica Park.


There has been considerable offseason buzz regarding the Cleveland Indians (84 ½), who made a spirited run at the playoffs last season. The Tribe remains well-managed under Terry Francona, plays hard, and has ample pitching, so we suspect they will not backslide from last year's 85-77 record. Corey Kluber's quick ascent to ace status and surprise Cy Young Award winner provide a nice anchor to a rotation that could turn into a real strength with continued progress from live young arms Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, who each flashed significant upside a year ago. Francona also makes good use of a deep bullpen; an AL-record four relievers notched 70 or more appearances in 2014, with all sorts of left-right combinations available in front of capable closer Cody Allen. If there are some concerns as camp breaks in Goodyear, they involve minor injury issues within the everyday lineup, though none among DH Nick Swisher, 2B Jason Kipnis, and top offseason addition Brandon Moss (likely in RF) figure to be sidelined for long. The batting order also figures to feature only one true right-handed bat (C Yan Gomes), with the rest either lefties or switch-hitters. Still, there are plenty of catalysts in the lineup, with underrated LF Michael Brantley having blossomed into an All-Star-caliber force. Though we are not quite as bullish on the Tribe as are some others, we think there are enough positive signs to look "over" at Progressive Field and give the locals something to cheer about into September (we don't think the Browns are going to provide much of an alternative).


AL WEST


BEST BET...In retrospect, we pegged the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (88 ½) pretty well as they headed into the playoffs as the runaway AL West champ last season after absolutely feasting upon the lower-echelon teams, playing over .700 against a wide collection of also-rans but hovering around .400 against playoff-caliber foes. <Thus, we were not surprised that the Halos, displaying classic bully tendencies, were quickly booted from the ALDS by the Royals. True, this new win total of 88½ is a big drop from last year's 98-64 mark, but we anticipate much rougher traffic for the Halos in 2015. Not necessarily because of LF Josh Hamilton's off-field troubles; adding ex-Ray Matt Joyce should effectively take Hamilton's place in the lineup. But we suspect the team will miss the glue that departed 2B Howie Kendrick provided for so many years. And if Albert Pujols can't stay healthy (always a concern), we're not sure how well the lineup can protect superstar CF Mike Trout, off his first of what could be several MVP seasons. Vet 3B David Freese had a considerable downturn in his power numbers last season, so keeping Pujols in one piece will be key. Mike Scioscia also has some questions with his staff, and is counting heavily upon rookie starter Andrew Heaney, recently ballyhooed with Miami, but unproven at the top level, while Garrett Richards is going to start the season on the DL as he continues to rehab from last August's knee injury that figured to keep him out for at least nine months. We're also not sure how much gas lefty C.J. Wilson (last seen getting blasted in the ALDS) has left in his tank, putting lots of pressure on Matt Shoemaker to prove last year's surprise 16-4 record was no fluke. The Halos might make the playoffs again, but we do not anticipate another easy ride to the postseason, especially since the lesser AL teams do not figure to roll over as easily this term. So, we're looking "under" the 88½ at the Big A, though recommending an "over" for visits to former lefty Clyde Wright's Tennessee BBQ stand down the third base line.


OTHERS: Noted wheeler-dealer GM Billy Beane might have gotten too clever for his own good last summer with the Oakland A's (81 ½), who had MLB's best record as of August 8, but proceeded to lose 30 of their next 46 and had to wait until the final day of the regular season before finally clinching a postseason berth. It was easy at the time to suspect that Beane made one move too many at the trade deadline, as dealing OF Yoenis Cespedes to the Bosox in the Jon Lester trade would almost immediately hamper the offense and remove its most-intimidating element; leading MLB in runs scored prior to the Cespedes trade, Oakland was the AL's lowest-scoring team thereafter, and would blow a late lead in the wild card playoff game at Kansas City. Now the A's have gone through yet another Beane-fueled makeover with new faces all over Hohokam Park in Mesa during March, with no signs of pitchers Jason Hammel, Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester, Beane's midseason staff additions last season that were supposed to lead a deep playoff run who were instead wearing different unis this spring. Beane has now tasked manager Bob Melvin into fitting five newcomers into the everyday lineup and at least three new starters into the rotation. Remember, however, that Beane's unique formula often works, and while not getting too carried away with March results, Oakland has been the talk of the Cactus League with a 19-9 record. A rebuilt rotation still features holdovers Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir and is projected to get Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin back from their respective Tommy John surgeries by June. And hanging around on the fringe is vet Barry Zito, making a comeback and impressing at Hohokam. Closer Sean Doolittle opens the season on the DL with shoulder problems, but one of Beane's many offseason adds, Tyler Clippard from the Nats, has closer experience and reflects a still-deep bullpen. Granted, Oakland lost a lot of offensive power during the offseason when trading away 3B Josh Donaldson, 1B/OF Brandon Moss, and C Derek Norris, just months after moving out Cespedes, but the revamped lineup displayed considerable aggressiveness and potential at the plate in Arizona. And among the many new additions, jack-of-all-trades ex-Ray Ben Zobrist (likely slated to open the season in RF with Josh Reddick on the DL short-term with a strained oblique) should especially come in handy for Melvin. The A's have surprised when downgraded in recent seasons, and we believe 2015 will be no exception; it's an "over" for us for the Billy Beanes at the Coliseum.


The Texas Rangers (76 ½) finally fell off of the map last season, tumbling into the AL West cellar with a 67-95 mark that prompted the bumpy exit of longtime skipper Ron Washington early last September. Upbeat new manager Jeff Banister figured that there would be no way his roster could endure the sort of injury woes that helped derail the operation in 2014, but almost immediately suffered another setback when staff ace Yu Darvish lasted just one inning in the Cactus League before going down with arm issues and resultant Tommy John surgery that will keep him out until 2016. Now pressure moves to the rest of the rotation that is hoping Derek Holland and Colby Lewis are beyond their recent injuries and that ex-Nat Ross Detwiler, who hasn't started since 2013, can handle his new role in Arlington. The bullpen is also revamped, with the experiment of Neftali Feliz as a starter now in the rear-view mirror as he returns to his more-familiar closer role. Tanner Scheppers, who missed most of 2014, is also back in the set-up man role he had in 2013, but the rest of the pen still appeared to have many moving parts as camp broke in Surprise. We do note that the Rangers were still competitive last season until they lost key offensive contributors 1B Prince Fielder, RF Shin-Soo Choo and DH Mitch Moreland to injury; all three are now healthy (knock on wood) and will hit in key spots in the Texas lineup along with still-productive 3B Adrian Beltre, which should be a plus. But lots of things are going to have to go right for the Rangers to get back into contention, and they're already off to a bad start with ace Darvish on the shelf. Texas should be better in 2015, but jumping ten wins is asking a lot...we look "under" at Globe Life Park.


There is an awful lot of hype surrounding the Seattle Mariners (86 ½), who along with the Nats/Expos remain the only MLB team to never make the World Series. But there were enough positive indicators on display in Peoria this March to suggest that the M's will at least have a chance to get into the postseason and have a shot at their first-ever appearance in the Fall Classic (who knows, maybe vs. the Nats!). Seattle addressed its one acknowledged weakness last season by adding a righthanded bat in Nelson Cruz, who hit 40 homers (admittedly taking advantage of the short dimensions at Baltimore's Camden Yards) in 2014 and likely handling DH duties, batting cleanup between 2B Robby Cano and 3B Kyle Seager and adding more menace to the offense. There are still a few questions elsewhere, though fewer of them than at any time in recent memory at Safeco Field. Among those issues are CF Austin Jackson, who underachieved after his midseason addition from Detroit last summer and still needing to prove himself at the top of the batting order; getting another big year out of closer Fernando Rodney, who has been a high-wire act for most of his career; and lessening the load on workhorse starters Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, who showed signs of wear-and-tear down the stretch last season. But youngsters James Paxton and Tajuan Walker have flashed plenty of upside, and adding vet J.A. Happ means that the Mariners probably don't need to go looking for other options at the back of the rotation, where the promising Roenis Elias could also figure into the equation. The bullpen also has depth and other closer options (such as Tom Wilhelmsen) should Rodney falter. And while Cruz generated the most buzz among the everyday lineup additions, we suspect no-nonsense manager Lloyd McLendon will get plenty of good use from the versatile Seth Smith, the former Ole Miss Rebel who is penciled in as the new right fielder. The greatest risk we see in Seattle is Rodney in the bullpen, where his 48 saves from last season might be hard to match. But we also don't believe McLendon would allow that situation to get out of hand if Rodney falters. And if Rodney comes close to picking up where he left off last season, Seattle is a good bet to win the West, which is why we look "over" at Safeco.


We find it interesting that after a full-scale rebuild that commenced with the move to the American League a couple of years ago, the Houston Astros (75 ½) decided to add some bargain-priced additions from elsewhere in the offseason to detour the recent youth movement that has not produced many everyday players from within the organization other than RF George Springer and 2B Jose Altuve. The likes of familiar-looking vets from other locales such as 3B Luis Valbuena, CF Colby Rasmus, SS Jed Lowrie, and LF/DH Evan Gattis are now part of the Houston lineup as experiments with the likes of 3B Matt Dominguez and 1B Jon Singleton at the big league level have been temporarily put on hold. All of which is probably a plus for the lineup, though the batting order still has a boom-or-bust look about it. Another new addition is skipper A.J. Hinch, who did not succeed in his last managerial try with the D-backs but has been enlisted to pick up the pieces from the failed regime of Bo Porter. Hinch will likely benefit from offseason reinforcements to a bullpen that recorded an AL-worst 4.80 ERA a year ago, but has since added established set-up men Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek and suddenly has plenty of options for Hinch and pitching coach Brent Strom. We are less convinced about a starting rotation that beyond the crafty Scott Feldman and emerging southpaw Dallas Keuchel has some question marks, with rookie Asher Wojciechowski earning a spot after a surprising March audition in Kissimmee and the very well-traveled Roberto Hernandez temporarily the fifth starter until lefty Brett Oberholtzer (blister on index finger) returns from the DL sometime in mid-April. The "Astro-nomicals" (as the one-and-only Reds announcer Marty Brennaman still occasionally refers to them) have improved from pushover status, and if everything falls into place could make a move closer to .500, but the recovery could also take a step back if the staff regresses. Lots of questions at Minute Maid Park, so we'd rather simply take a pass in Houston.