Cnotes All You Need To Know About Kentucky Derby and Picks !

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part 1


April 26, 2015


This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!


Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned


INTERNATIONAL STAR (9-5-2-0)


TRAINER: Mike Maker (0 for 8)
JOCKEY: Miguel Mena (0 for 1)


RUNNING STYLE: He is a one-run closer.


AS A JUVENILE: Tried all three surfaces the sport has to offer, winning two of his six tries, including the G3 Grey over the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Also broke his maiden in his career debut on turf. Closed out the season with a fourth place finish in the G2 KJC at Churchill Downs.


THIS YEAR: A perfect three for three, International Star swept the three Fair Grounds preps in the same come-from-behind, gritty manner. He encountered some traffic trouble in both the G3 LeComte and G2 Risen Star when saving ground until the stretch and just kept on a comin’ at Stanford last out in the Louisiana Derby after a bit of a better trip.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, FG 1st by neck 99 98
Risen Star, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 1 97 93
LeComte, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, FG 1st by 2 ½ 94 90


CONNECTIONS: Mike Maker wins races in bunches across the eastern half of the country while his rider Miguel Mena, who has ridden him in his last three starts, had a fantastic meet down at the Fair Grounds this past winter.


WORTH NOTING: His owners, Mr and Mrs. Ken Ramsey, usually race home-breds but bought this New York-bred colt at auction for $85,000. His sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the Derby in 2000.


FAIR PRICE: Widely considered a second tier contender despite his unblemished record this season, I think 12-1 is about right but you’ll likely get higher.


DORTMUND (6-6-0-0)


TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Martin Garcia (0 for 3)


RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.


AS A JUVENILE: Dortmund made three starts at three different racetracks in the final two months of 2014 and won them all from just off the pace, including an allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs that was sandwiched between a maiden tally at Santa Anita and a gritty tally in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.


THIS YEAR: He’s managed to run his record to a perfect six for six with three more graded stakes score this season. He alternated on the lead with Firing Line in the G3 Robert Lewis before re-rallying along the rail to win then took the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby in gate-to-wire fashion.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Sana Anita Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 4 ¼ 106 106
San Felipe, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 1 ¼ 102 104
Robert Lewis, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by hd 101 104


CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002. Garcia hasn’t won the Derby but has won countless races for Baffert, including the 2010 Preakness aboard Lookin’ at Lucky.


WORTH NOTING: He’s one of two undefeated colts in the race. He’s named after a European soccer club like his stablemate, defending Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Derby.


FAIR PRICE: I think he should be the post time favorite, but that honor will more likely be bestowed upon his barn mate American Pharoah. If I were playing him to win I would accept 4-1.


CARPE DIEM (5-4-1-0)


TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: John Velazquez (1 for 16)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace


AS A JUVENILE: Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career impressively, including the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland by daylight before running second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after an awkward journey.


THIS YEAR: He’s a perfect two for two, taking the G2 Tampa Bay Derby in his first start off of a four month layoff before an easy tally G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Blue Grass, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, KEE 1st by 3 102 95
Tampa Bay Derby, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, TB 1st by 5 96 98
B.C. Juvenile, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 2nd by 6 ½ 93 93


CONNECTIONS: Arguably the most dominant duo in racing over the past 15 years or so, Pletcher won his lone Derby in 2010 with Super Saver while Velazquez won it the following year aboard Animal Kingdom when a late rider change was made the day before the race.


WORTH NOTING: His $1.6 million price tag is the highest of any runner that was sold at auction in this field. He has gone to post as the favorite in each of his five starts.


FAIR PRICE: In almost any other year, he’d keep that post time favorite streak intact but I think American Pharoah will steal that honor away. 6-1 is about right though he’ll likely be a point or two higher.




AMERICAN PHAROAH (5-4-0-0)


TRAINER: Bob Baffert (3 for 24)
JOCKEY: Victor Espinoza (2 for 6)


RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.


AS A JUVENILE: After losing his debut on the synthetic surface at Del Mar, the blinkers came off at he won two consecutive G1 races, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner at Santa Anita. He was scratched the week of the Breeders’ Cup with a foot injury.


THIS YEAR: A pair of runaway scores at Oaklawn in the G2 rebel and G1 Arkansas Derby, a race in which he showed some ability to rate for the first time in his career.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 8 102 1 05
Rebel, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by 6 ¼ 99 100
FrontRunner, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, SA 1st by 3 ¼ 99 101


CONNECTIONS: Baffert is a three time Kentucky Derby winner, including back-to-back wins in 1997 and 1998 with Silver Charm and Real Quiet as well as War Emblem in 2002 with Espinoza aboard. Espinoza, of course, won last years’ renewal with California Chrome.


WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby entrants. It’s been reported that he has been running and training with a protective plate covering part of his hoof.


FAIR PRICE: He will be the favorite, that’s for sure. And he is getting a TON of good press, which will likely make him a bigger favorite than he should be considering the fact that this is widely considered a deep group of sophomores. I feel 5-1 should be his price but he’ll be lower than that.


FROSTED (7-2-4-0)


TRAINER: Kiaran McLaughlin (0 for 5)
JOCKEY: Joel Rosario (1 for 5)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace


AS A JUVENILE: After finishing second in his first two starts, Frosted galloped home when stretching out to a mile before chasing from an outside post and settling for second in the G2 Remsen on a day where inside speed reigned supreme at Aqueduct.


THIS YEAR: He was second off a nearly two month layoff in the G2 Holy Bull before spitting the bit in the stretch of the G2 Fountain of Youth after opening up to an easy lead on the far turn when racing with blinkers for the first time. Last out, after a minor throat surgery, a rider change and adjustment to the blinkers, Frosted won the G1 Wood Memorial under a hand ride.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 107 103
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 4th by 4 ¾ 89 85
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 2nd by 5 ½ 98 95


CONNECTIONS: McLaughlin has won countless G1 races, including the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and was second in the Derby with his first entrant, Closing Argument, back in 2005. Rosario piloted Orb through the slop to victory two years ago.


WORTH NOTING: The 107 Brisnet figure earned last out is the highest in the field.


FAIR PRICE: It’s hard to imagine getting over 10-1 on a horse that won the Wood Memorial at odds of 2-1 but that is exactly what is going to happen here. I would set his price at 8-1 but am expecting more.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part 2


April 26, 2015


This week, Anthony Stabile, best known for picking 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide at odds of over 12/1, will break down the top contenders for this years 2015 "Run for the Roses" on VegasInsider.com, culminating on Friday, May 1st with an extensive analysis of every runner that steps into the gate for the most exciting two minutes in sports. On both May 1st and May 2nd, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Day, you’ll be able to purchase Stabile’s Pick Packs, full of selections and plays for two of racings’ most exciting days of the year. Click here!


Horses listed in order of Kentucky Derby points earned


MUBTAAHIJ (7-4-1-0)


TRAINER: Mike de Kock (Debut)
JOCKEY: Christophe Soumillon (Debut)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace.


AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of off-the-board turf tries in England, Mubtaahij shipped to the U.A.E. and switched to dirt. He broke his maiden on New Year’s Eve against three and four-year-olds in his dirt debut.


THIS YEAR: He’s won three of four this year, including the Al Bastikaya and G2 U.A.E Derby going 1 3/16 miles. In the U.A.E. Derby, he took plenty of kickback behind a wall of speed horses early on before powering away to a daylight score while geared down through the final stages.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
U.A.E. Derby, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 8 NA NA
Al Bastikaya, 1 3/16 miles, dirt, Meydan 1st by 2 ½ NA NA
U.A.E. 2000 Guineas, 1 mile, dirt, Meydan 2nd by hd NA NA


CONNECTIONS: While he’s making his Derby debut and isn’t a popular name when it comes to stateside racing, Mike de Kock is regarded as one of the best trainers in the world and has won over 200 G1 races worldwide. Soumillon has become one of his go to guys and is a Breeders’ Cup winner.


WORTH NOTING: Mike de Kock has started six horses in the U.S and all have finished in the trifecta. Like most of his previous runners, Mubtaahij will race without Lasix in the Derby. He is the only horse besides 1971 Derby and Preakness winner Canonero II to compete in the Derby having run twice past 1 1/8 miles.


FAIR PRICE: In a year that appears to have plenty of homegrown talent, this colt has gotten plenty of attention. With that said, there are still plenty of skeptics out there so you’ll probably get the 10-1 or 12-1 you should get.


MATERIALITY (3-3-0-0)


TRAINER: Todd Pletcher (1 for 40)
JOCKEY: Javier Castellano (0 for 8)


RUNNING STYLE: Forwardly placed, on or close to the lead.


AS A JUVENILE: He didn’t race. Therefore, he will try to become the first horse to win the Derby without a start as a juvenile since Apollo in 1882.


THIS YEAR: After breaking his maiden in the slop in his debut, Materiality rolled home to an easy score in the Islamorada then dug in to hold off the more seasoned Upstart in an exciting renewal of the G1 Florida Derby.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 1 ½ 105 110
Islamorada, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ¾ 100 102
Mdn spcl wt, 6 furlongs, dirt, GP 1st by 4 ¼ 96 87


CONNECTIONS: Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, teams up with his “other” go-to guy, Javier Castellano, who hasn’t had much success in this race. Throughout the year, however, they are one of the most formidable duos in the land.


WORTH NOTING: The 110 Beyer figure earned last out is the highest in the field. He’s the only colt taking on the dreaded Apollo curse this season.


FAIR PRICE: On a Thursday afternoon at Gulfstream or Belmont or Saratoga, this recipe of an undefeated horse trained by Pletcher and ridden by Castellano usually results in 3-5 on the toteboard. Amazingly, in this heat, you’re going to get about 10-1 on him.


EL KABEIR (9-4-2-2)


TRAINER: John Terranova, III (0 for 1)
JOCKEY: Calvin Borel (3 for 12)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from off the pace.


AS A JUVENILE: He broke his maiden impressively on closing weekend at Saratoga in his second start, finished fourth in the G1 Champagne, second in the G2 Nashua then closed out his season with a gate-to-wire score in the G2 KJC at Churchill in his only start under Borel.


THIS YEAR: Easily won the G3 Jerome and G3 Gotham but suffered a pair of defeats in the G3 Withers as the 1-2 favorite and last out in the G1 Wood Memorial. He’s evolved a bit from a front running type to a bit of a closer. C.C. Lopez subbed for Lopez in the Jerome and kept the mount until this.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Wood Memorial, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, AQU 3rd by 5 ¾ 101 94
Gotham, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 1st by 2 ¾ 95 88
Withers, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, AQU 2nd by 1 ¾ 94 93


CONNECTIONS: Terranova isn’t a usual player on the national scene but has gotten off to a solid start this year as he heads into Derby week winning at a bit over 20%. Borel, of course, was the darling of the Derby several years back, winning three in four years with Street Sense in 2007 and back to back scores with longshot Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010.


WORTH NOTING: His owner Zayat Stables will likely have three Derby Entrants. Two of his three stakes wins have come over wet tracks.


FAIR PRICE: Lost some of his value when they named Borel as his rider. He’ll probably be about 20-1 but should be a bit higher than that.


UPSTART (7-3-3-1)


TRAINER: Rick Violette, Jr. (0 for 2)
JOCKEY: Jose Ortiz (0 for 1)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from just off the pace


AS A JUVENILE: After starting his career with a pair of wins just nine days apart against New York breds at Saratoga, Upstart finished a solid second in the G1 Champagne before a third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in a race where he confronted a hot early pace a bit too soon.


THIS YEAR: Upstart made his presence felt immediately with a powerful score in the G3 Holy Bull. A workmanlike effort followed when he won the G2 Fountain of Youth where he was controversially disqualified from the win and placed second. Last out, he couldn’t get by the undefeated Materiality through the stretch of the G1 Florida Derby but did appear to be interfered with in the stretch. The stewards took no action.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt GP 2nd by 1 ½ 103 108
Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP *1st by 2 ¾ 95 93
Holy Bull, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, GP 1st by 5 ½ 105 105


CONNECTIONS: It’s fair to say Violette is better known for being a local NY guy who can get a juvenile ready than a major player on the big stage. Ortiz has quickly become one of the leading riders in NY and is one of the best on the front end in the nation.


WORTH NOTING: Missed a few days of training with a brief illness in mid to late April. Looking to become the first NY bred since Funny Cide in 2003 to win the roses.


FAIR PRICE: He’s had an interesting winter at Gulfstream, to say the least. Those stewards had a major impact on his year thus far and that will likely impact this toteboard. If he would have won all three in Florida, and he very well could have, he’d have been 8-1. Now, you’ll likely get 15-1 or higher.


FAR RIGHT (9-3-3-2)


TRAINER: Ron Moquett (Debut)
JOCKEY: Mike Smith (1 for 20)


RUNNING STYLE: Comes from far back.


AS A JUVENILE: Broke his maiden in his third start/first for Moquett at Churchill then finished third in the Street Sense and in the G3 Delta Jackpot, a race in which he might have been best.


THIS YEAR: A rider change to Mike Smith resulted in a pair of exciting come from behind scores in the Smarty Jones and G3 Southwest, two races in which Smith made his move along the inside. Smith kept something in the tank when he guided him to a second place finish in the G1 Arkansas Derby when there was no catching American Pharoah.


BREAKDOWN
Last 3 Starts Finish Brisnet Beyer
Arkansas Derby, 1 1/8 miles, dirt, OP 2nd by 8 93 92
Southwest, 1 1/16 miles, dirt, OP 1st by ¾ 93 91
Smarty Jones, 1 mile, dirt, OP 1st by 1 ¾ 92 89


CONNECTIONS: Midwestern mainstay Moquett will be making his Derby debut while Mike Smith upset the Derby applecart with Giacomo in 2005 at over 50-1


WORTH NOTING: Owner Harry Rosenblum sold part of this colt this winter and all of fellow Derby entrant War Story after his maiden win.


FAIR PRICE: Slow speed figures combined with getting beat a pole in the Arkansas Derby is likely going to inflate his price. I would make him 20-1 but you are certain to get a whole lot more.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby hopefuls get workouts in pre-rain


April 25, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - One week ahead of the Kentucky Derby, several horses completed their workouts at Churchill Downs before the rain came down.


The threat of severe weather across the state hastened things Saturday morning for Derby hopefuls such as International Star, Keen Ice and Tencendur, whose workouts at Churchill Downs came before daybreak and just ahead of the rain.


Carpe Diem worked out at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky, and trainer Todd Pletcher said ''We got fortunate with the weather.''


Santa Anita offered better California weather for Dortmund and Firing Line. They completed final works before heading to Churchill Downs for the 141st Run for the Roses next Saturday.


Tencendur breezed through five furlongs in a minute flat.


''I thought he worked well,'' trainer George Weaver said. ''I asked the boys to go out there and go a minute, and he went a minute. It was pretty much what I wanted it to be.


''Going into the Derby, I didn't want to go in there off an easy work. I wanted to get something out of it.''


The main goal was just getting in a workout because of the impending bad weather. The trainers caught a break when showers didn't arrive until around 8 a.m., long after many had completed their runs under cloudy skies.


Pletcher moved up Carpe Diem's workout a day at Keeneland. He came away pleased with the half-mile time of 48.60 seconds at the track where the horse won the Blue Grass Stakes earlier this month and established himself as a Derby contender.


''He's continued to develop,'' Pletcher said of Carpe Diem, who has four wins and a second in five starts. ''He's really in a good place now. He's just very happy with himself, content, galloping well; his appetite's good. Just all the indications you'd like to see leading up to a big race. He's giving us all the right signs.''


Pletcher felt the same about some of his four other horses during Friday's workout at Churchill Downs before deciding later to drop Madefromlucky from his contingent after consulting the owners.


That move opened the door for Dale Romans-trained Keen Ice to make the 20-horse field with Kent Desormeaux aboard. Keen Ice is still seeking his first graded stakes win, but his fourth-place finish in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby behind Derby entrants International Star, Stanford and War Story was good for 10 additional points and 22 overall, which earned a place in the Derby.


Keen Ice covered five furlongs Saturday in 1:01.60, just a week after running six in 1:13.20.


''We let him do his own thing,'' Romans said. ''He had two really fast drills, got some long miles in him here. The heavy lifting is over.''


At Santa Anita, unbeaten Dortmund gave trainer Bob Baffert something to feel good about as he mulls whether to work possible Derby favorite American Pharoah on Sunday at Churchill Downs despite rain in the forecast. Dortmund ran six furlongs in 1:13.60 before departing for an expected arrival on Sunday.


''He cruised today,'' Baffert said.


Firing Line is also due in Sunday after going five furlongs in 1:02.20 at Santa Anita.


At Belmont, El Kabeir breezed four furlongs in 46.81 seconds. Frosted and Upstart each covered five furlongs at Palm Meadows Training Center on Saturday, clocking 1:01.10 and 59.95, respectively.

 

[CNOTES]

American Pharoah completes workout


April 26, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - American Pharoah has completed his final workout before the Kentucky Derby.The likely favorite for the 141st Derby galloped five furlongs in 58.62 seconds under Martin Garcia on Sunday at Churchill Downs. Looking on was Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who arrived from Southern California to supervise. The colt has been in Louisville since April 13 after winning the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths.


Baffert says American Pharoah handled his lone workout on the dirt strip well and he looks great.


American Pharoah takes a four-race winning streak into Saturday's Derby. He's won those races by a combined 22 1/4 lengths, all under Victor Espinoza, who will be aboard in the Derby.

 

[CNOTES]

2015 KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS


Horse Odds


American Pharoah 3/1


Dortmund 4/1


Carpe Diem 6/1


Mubtaahij 8/1


Materiality 10/1


Upstart 14/1


International Star 16/1


Frosted 18/1


Firing Line 19/1


Danzig Moon 32/1


El Kabeir 32/1


Keen Ice 32/1


Itsaknockout 33/1


Far Right 34/1


Bolo 35/1


Ocho Ocho Ocho 40/1


War Story 40/1


Frammento 55/1


Mr Z 60/1


Stanford 60/1


Tencendur 90/1


Bold Conquest 100/1


Metaboss 100/1




Odds provided by Sportsbook.ag
Updated Sun, Apr. 26, 9:45 AM ET

 

[CNOTES]

Keen Ice moves into Kentucky Derby field


April 24, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Trainer Todd Pletcher is down to four possible starters next week in the Kentucky Derby after Madefromlucky dropped out.


The colt's owners said Friday they decided not to run Madefromlucky in the 1 1/4-mile race May 2 at Churchill Downs. No immediate reason was announced.


That leaves Pletcher with four likely starters: Carpe Diem, Materiality, Itsaknockout and Stanford.


The defection moves Keen Ice, trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, into what's expected to be a full 20-horse field for the first race in the Triple Crown series.

 

[CNOTES]

Dortmund, American Pharoah vie for fave


April 24, 2015


Bob Baffert is riding high these days, knowing he holds a pair of aces heading into the Kentucky Derby.


The white-haired trainer has the probable favorite in either undefeated Dortmund or American Pharoah, giving him a double shot at winning America's greatest race for the fourth time.


He's just not his old cocky self about it.


At 62, having survived a heart attack three years ago in Dubai, Baffert feels grateful to be back in position to win another Derby, which would move him into a tie for second-most among trainers. He hasn't smelled the roses since 2002 with War Emblem.


''This is the time of year where we take nothing for granted, we work hard, we have a great team,'' he said, spreading the credit around to his stable help. ''We want to get there in top form and healthy. That's the battle right there. I can't believe I'm so fortunate to be in this position with two outstanding 3-year-olds like I have.''


Todd Pletcher is even luckier. He's got four horses set to run on May 2 in the 1 1/4-mile race, with Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem as his leading contender.


Of course, big numbers are nothing new for the New York-based trainer.


He had five runners two years ago, and his best finish was third. Last year, he saddled four horses and again finished no higher than third. Pletcher's lone Derby win came in 2010 with Super Saver.


Besides Carpe Diem, Pletcher's other horses are: Materiality, Itsaknockout and Stanford. His fifth horse, Madefromlucky, bowed out Friday when his owners said they decided not to run in the Derby. That moved Keen Ice into the field.


One of the deepest and most talented fields in recent years - a full 20 horses - will break from the gate for the 141st Derby at Churchill Downs. The lineup won't be finalized until Wednesday, when entries are drawn and post positions are assigned.


''It might be the toughest Derby that we've had in quite a few years,'' said Kiaran McLaughlin, who trains Wood Memorial winner Frosted.


Pletcher's mentor, D. Wayne Lukas, has a shot at making Derby history. The 79-year-old Hall of Famer could become the oldest trainer to win with Mr Z. The four-time Derby winner would surpass Art Sherman, who was 77 when California Chrome won last year.


Dortmund comes into the Derby with a 6-0 record, equaling the marks of Seattle Slew and Smarty Jones when they won the Derby in 1977 and 2004, respectively. He's got the pedigree, too, having been sired by 2008 Derby winner Big Brown. His front-running style could keep him out of trouble in the jammed field.


American Pharoah romped to an eight-length victory in his last race at the Arkansas Derby. His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, finished second in the 2009 Derby.


''Of course, any time Bob Baffert has a couple of Kentucky Derby horses you have to give him a lot of respect,'' Pletcher said. ''He's certainly tremendous at getting horses there and having them perform well.''


Among owners, Ahmed Zayat has three contenders: American Pharoah, El Kabeir and Mr Z.


The ruling Maktoum family of Dubai is back at the Derby for the first time since 2009 trying to improve its 0 for 7 mark. Their Godolphin Racing outfit has Frosted, who has been training in the U.S. and figures to be right behind the top favorites in the wagering.


''Godolphin's camp is always wanting to win the big races around the world, and they have been fortunate to win so many of them, but the Derby has eluded them,'' McLaughlin said.


Ireland-bred Mubtaahij is owned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum, a member of Dubai royalty. The well-traveled colt is based overseas and has run everywhere from England to Dubai. He could become the first Derby winner to prep outside the U.S. since Canonero II in 1971.


Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby, giving trainer Mike de Kock enough confidence to enter the Derby.


''I probably picked the worst year when it comes to the opposition, but at the end of the day you never know,'' the South African trainer said. ''It's a sporting event, it's a horse race. There's no guarantees.''


No one knows that better than Baffert and Pletcher.


Both trainers have had early favorites either forced out at the last minute or be done in by the pace or post position.


''We're trying to keep our excitement to a normal level because I know the disappointment in this game,'' Baffert said. ''I know that uppercut is waiting for you around the corner.''

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby betting horse-by-horse preview and picks

Saturday’s 141st running of the Kentucky Derby is one of the most anticipated in years loaded with potential superstars. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field for the Run for the Roses:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Jockey - Elvis Trujillo, odds - 50-1): Tiny colt won the first three races of his career but there’s too much speed in this field for him to be a true contender and you don’t win this race from the rail.

2. Carpe Diem (John Velazquez, 10-1): Texas Red, who was believed to be a big Derby threat before being injured is the lone horse to beat this one in five career starts but Carpe Diem’s times haven’t been that great. A contender but one with question marks.

3. Materiality (Javier Castellano, 12-1): Is unbeaten in three career starts and ran a 110 speed figure, the highest in the field, in winning the Florida Derby. Unraced as a two-year-old, which generally raises the white flag, and wants to run from the front, which is a bigger concern against these.

4. Tencendur (Manny Franco, 30-1): Last race, a second in the Wood was his best yet, but even that won’t get the job done here. Pass.

5. Danzig Moon (Julien Leparoux, 30-1): Wowed the clockers in a work on April 18 at Churchill Downs but has just one win in five starts and seems destined to finish in the middle of the pack.

6. Mubtaahij (Christophe Soumillon, 20-1): Irish import won at Dubai and will be the wise guy’s pick but these foreigners never seem to run well here. Should be able to get the distance.

7. El Kabeir (Calvin Borel, 30-1): Seems to be going backward and is a step below these. Borel always seems to make some noise but even he seems to be near the end of his great career.

8. Dortmund (Martin Garcia, 3-1): The giant colt, a son of Big Brown, enters the race not only undefeated in six career starts but with gritty victories in his last three outings including the Santa Anita Derby where he lost his shoe at the start and still won by 4½ lengths. His biggest drawback is the fact he likes to run from the front and there is better early speed in here which could cause the Bob Baffert charge to alter strategy.

9. Bolo (Rafael Bejarano, 30-1): Finished third to Dortmund in last two starts and is trained by Carla Gaines who looks to become the first female conditioner to win the Derby. Expected to be better on the turf.

10. Firing Line (Gary Stevens, 15-1): Stevens returned from retirement in 2013 and will try to win the Derby at age 52. Firing Line rolled in the Sunland Derby and if you like Dortmund you have to believe this one can pull the upset.

11. Stanford (Florent Geroux, 30-1): Stanford was scratched Thursday afternoon and replaced by No. 21 Frammento.

12. International Star (Miguel Mena, 15-1): Has won three straight and earned the most qualifying points in the field but his lone run at Churchill Downs was a stinker as was his lone Grade I event.

13. Itsaknockout (Luis Saez, 30-1): Will serve as hunch bet on the day of the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight; finished second in the Florida Derby but was moved to first after winner, Upstart, was disqualified.

14. Keen Ice (Kent Desormeaux, 50-1): Just 1-for-7 lifetime but his closing style gives him an outside shot to make a bit of noise in the deep stretch if he’s not too far back by then.

15. Frosted (Joel Rosario, 15-1): Tapit colt will take some money at the windows but his best races have been at New York and the Wood field was soft. Does have closing ability if a speed duel develops.

16. War Story (Joe Talamo, 50-1): Tends to start slowly which is a death-knell in a big field. Speed figures are also far behind the top choices.

17. Mr. Z (Ramon Vazquez, 50-1): Highly-touted yearling but he hasn’t won since his debut 12 races back and is a proven notch below the top contenders.

18. American Pharoah (Victor Espinoza, 5-2): Some questioned the soft field and fractions in the Rebel win but he came back to crush a good group in the Arkansas Derby that was more impressive than anything that Dortmund has ran. Bob Baffert trainee is not only the choice here but his dynamic works also make one feel that he is in such razor-sharp form that he is a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

19. Upstart (Jose Ortiz, 15-1): A true contender at a nice price and one has to like the fact that he breaks just outside of the favorite. Upstart ran wide the entire Florida Derby finishing second, has never been worse than third in seven career outings and could mount a big charge down the stretch.

20. Far Right (Mike Smith, 30-1): Had a successful meet at Oaklawn but was no match for American Pharoah in last outing, the Arkansas Derby, despite finishing second. Always tries hard so he is a threat to hit the board. How about an 18-19-20 trifecta?

21. Frammento (Corey Nakatani , 50-1): Drew into the field after Stanford was scratched. Decided longshot with no speed figures to merit consideration but trainer Nick Zito likes to have an entry in this race.

Also Eligible: Tale of Verve (Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1).

Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Upstart. 3. Dortmund. 4. Firing Line.

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby Breakdown


May 1, 2015




Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby!


Kentucky Derby Odds


2015 BREAKDOWN


PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)


1 - Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1 Elvis Trujillo (0-1) Jim Cassidy (0-2)


Notes: Someone gets stuck with the dreaded rail draw every year and unfortunately for his connections he got stuck with it this year. He came into this season undefeated in three starts and had some steam but he just hasn’t lived up to his expectations. He had an excuse in the San Felipe but none last out when he set easy fractions in the Blue Grass. And now this. I was never a fan and I’m certainly not now.


2 - Carpe Diem 8/1 John Velazquez (1-16) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: The first of three from Pletcher, he could very well be the best of the Todd Squad this year. His lone defeat in five starts came in the B.C, Juvenile where he finished second so it’s obvious that he has a ton of talent. However, his two biggest wins, the Breeders’ Futurity and Blue Grass last out, came at Keeneland and Pletcher decided that this colt loved in there so much that he kept him there until early this week to train for this race while the rest of his runners were at Churchill. It could be that he’s a good horse overall but an exceptional one at Keeneland. The draw adds to the conundrum because you’d think he’s going to have to leave a bit harder from the gate than Johnny V. would have liked. If he doesn’t, he runs the risk of getting shuffled back going into the first turn frenzy. And he has a history of being problematic at the gate and will be in there an awfully long time while the rest of them load. Factor in Pletcher’s terrible Derby record and I can’t endorse him to win the race but will use him on the bottom end of my exotic wagers based mainly on his ability.


3 – Materiality 12/1 Javier Castellano (0-8) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: He is famously looking to become the first horse to win the Derby without having run as a juvenile since Apollo did so in 1882. He’s run just three times and while he has won them all and sports the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any runner in this event, I feel like he has certainly benefited from others’ misfortunes. In his second start, fellow Derby runner/stablemate Stanford bore out on the backside and made his job a whole lot easier while I think he should have been DQed in his latest, the Florida Derby, for interference with Upstart in the stretch. His connections win everything in sight but haven’t had the greatest success here. Like Carpe Diem, the post position does him no favor but it’s not as bad since he figured to be a part of the expected hot pace even before they drew the pills. Ultimately, I think his lack of seasoning will do him in against this salty bunch but wouldn’t hold using him in your exotics against you.


4 – Tencendur 30/1 Manny Franco (Debut) George Weaver (Debut)


Notes: One of three New York breds in here looking to follow in the steps of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide, the only horse bred in the Empire State to win the Derby thus far. Like 2005 winner Giacomo, this guy comes into this still eligible for an entry level allowance contest. Weaver added blinkers two starts back in the Gotham and he took a ton of action but was inexplicably taken off the pace. Last out he was involved much earlier on and he ran a bang up second behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial. Still, he lacks accomplishments and his pedigree is suspect, to put it nicely, in regards to getting this trip. He’s not for me.


5 – Danzig Moon 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-7) Mark Casse (0-7)


Notes: Another with just a maiden tally under his belt from five starts, he’s gotten a lot of attention in Louisville this past week as many are impressed with his appearance and how he has trained. He’s chased Carpe Diem in his last two, the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass, and needs to make up several lengths on him to even think about being a major player in here. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan and don’t understand all of the attention. Even if you’re a longshot player there are far more attractive options in here. I’m passing.


6 – Mubtaahij 20/1 Christophe Soumillon (Debut) Mike de Kock (Debut)


Notes: Ships in from Dubai looking to become the first horse to win the Derby via the UAE Derby. He’s four for five on dirt, beat older horses as a juvenile in his maiden win and has won twice at 1 3/16 miles. The last horse to win twice past nine furlongs going into this was Canonero II back in 1971 and he was victorious. He sat behind a wall of speed horses last out, took dirt for about six furlongs then exploded home to win by eight lengths once he was shown daylight. He admittedly didn’t beat much and his time was ordinary but he looked amazing doing it. He’s trained by one of the sharpest guy in the world who has won races on four different continents. He’s handled all of the travel brilliantly, has put the weight that he lost back on since his arrival and should work out a fantastic trip from this post. I think he’ll come down from that big morning line price but will still be between 12-1 and 15-1.


7 - El Kabeir 30/1 Calvin Borel (3-12) John Terranova, III( 0-1)


Notes: Was one of the feel-good stories of the winter as Chuckie Lopez subbed for Borel in the Jerome, won, then did a fine job with him all winter long before getting sacked by Zayat after the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. This colt toughed it out all winter in NY and missed some training because of the weather but still ran four times and ran well. Kudos to Terranova. Unfortunately, this isn’t the inner track at Aqueduct and Frosted handled him easily last out. He does own a win over the course but a lot, mainly his change in running style from a front runner to a closer, has changed since then and I just think he’s a cut or two below the best ones in here.


8 – Dortmund 3/1 Martin Garcia (0-3) Bob Baffert (3-24)


Notes: He’s a perfect six for six, has won at three different racetracks, including this one, at four different distances from on the lead and off the pace. He’s a monster in stature, his sire Big Brown won the race in 2008 and is trained by a Hall of Famer with three Derby wins under his belt. There really wasn’t anything not to like until this week when he started misbehaving while schooling in the Churchill paddock. He acted up Wednesday and again on Thursday to a lesser degree, actions that will make Baffert saddle him on the walking path and not in a paddock stall. It makes you wonder: if he’s pulling some antics in front of a few hundred people, what’s going to happen when 140,000 people are singing My Old Kentucky Home? Now, I’m not going to tell you to toss him because of it. He’s a real contender in here, if not the entire Triple Crown. If you play multi-race wagers, he is a must use. If you don’t and you’re just betting the race itself, keep an eye on him wherever you watch the race. Listen to what people are saying on radio, TV, social media and act accordingly. But throw him completely out at your own peril.


9 – Bolo 30/1 Rafael Bejarano (0-9) Carla Gaines (0-1)


Notes: Made a serious run at Dortmund in the San Felipe, his first start on dirt and off a 10 week layoff then couldn’t muster a solid rally when third in the Santa Anita Derby last out, an effort that in part led his trainer and his former rider Mike Smith, who won two turf races aboard him, to say he was better suited for the turf. That’s enough for me to be turned off. Only reason he is here is because the owners have Derby Fever and that is the worst reason of all to run. I’m passing on him.


10 - Firing Line 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-20) Simon Callaghan (Debut)


Notes: He’s the only horse in here trying to win off of a six week break between races, an angle I am not fond of. Plus, he’s only run twice this year. He did give Dortmund all he could handle in the Los Alamitos Futurity and the Robert Lewis, a race in which he actually opened up a length lead in the stretch before his foe came back to get him along the rail. Callaghan was so annoyed at losing two decisions by a head that he got his charge away from Dortmund and took him to New Mexico, where he promptly won the Sunland Derby by a stones’ throw. My issues are his running style, since I think he does his best running on the front end which is already plenty crowded and his pedigree, which isn’t very appealing. He does get Stevens but I am really turned off by the amount of time between races. I’m gonna pass.


11 – Stanford SCR SCRATCHED SCRATCHED


Notes: He’ll be scratched and will point towards the Peter Pan at Belmont on May 8th or the Preakness on May 15th at Pimlico.


12 - International Star 20/1 Miguel Mena (0-1) Mike Maker (0-8)


Notes: He led all runners in Derby points with 171 after winning all three of his preps this year down at the Fair Grounds. He showed his cool when he was able to get himself off of the rail to win the LeComte once outside of horses, his courage when he made his way through an opening along the rail to win by a length and his determination last out when Stanford dug his heels in before he finally got to the money in the Louisiana Derby. Those are all tremendous qualities in a racehorse, especially one running for the roses. He’s a tad on the slow side and I’m not enamored with his connections in this spot but I’m willing to look past those things because of his other redeeming qualities. His sire won this in 2000 and he’s always gaining ground at the end of his races so the distance shouldn’t be an issue. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.


13 – Itsaknockout 30/1 Luis Saez (0-2) Todd Pletcher (1-40)


Notes: I’ll give his connections this: they’ve done a great job at getting him some exposure by having him wear a blanket promoting the Mayweather fight, with his name and all. He was technically undefeated going into the Florida Derby but I think the disqualification of Upstart in the Fountain of Youth, one that resulted in this guy getting the win, was a joke. And I think that point was proven last time when he finished nearly 20 lengths behind his rival. Based on his last two starts, it looks like a one turn mile will be his best game. The Pat Day Mile on the undercard would have been a great spot for him but, once again, Derby Fever kicked in. An easy toss.


14 - Keen Ice 50/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-18) Dale Romans (0-5)


Notes: He’s won just one of his seven starts and finished third in two others, including the Risen Star two starts back. He comes from far back and should benefit from the probable hot pace, plus his pedigree cries out for this trip. Also, his lone win came at Churchill Downs. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he is slow, he exits some of the slower preps and is getting his sixth different rider, albeit one that has won three of these. Normally, I like to see some consistency and continuity when it comes to horses I use in the Derby and while I doubt he can win this I feel like he can grab a share based on his running style. Using him on the bottom half of my exotics.


15 – Frosted 15/1 Joel Rosario (1-5) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-5)


Notes: I can’t say enough about the job McLaughlin did with him between the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial. He turned for home in the Fountain of Youth with a two length lead and appeared to be on cruise control. 15 seconds later he was fourth. So Kiaran deconstructed this colt. He discovered a breathing problem so he had a minor, common throat surgery performed. He fiddled with the newly added blinkers. He changed riders to Rosario. The result: a hand ride victory in the Wood Memorial where he closed from last into a slow pace while racing widest of all. The scratch moves him from the first stall of the auxiliary gate to the last stall of the main gate but that shouldn’t be an issue since he’ll still have a bit of wiggle room leaving out of there. It’ll just be on his right side as opposed to his left. His outside draw was key, in my opinion, because he doesn’t seem to like being inside of horses. That shouldn’t be a problem from this post. I’m using him in all of my wagers, especially at that price.


16 - War Story 50/1 Joe Talamo (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-3)


Notes: Boy, did I love this guy earlier in the year. He won both of his starts last year, then ran a good second in the LeComte before a wide trip in the Risen Star where he had to settle for place money again. He was primed to turn the tables on International Star in the Louisiana Derby. He broke well, was in contention and appeared poised to pounce on the far turn and then….nothing. He didn’t fire one bit. I watched the replay a few times and I’ve come to the conclusion that he just doesn’t want any part of the distance. AND they are taking the blinkers off, a big no-no in my book. Why would you make an equipment change in the Kentucky Derby? He’s not getting any of my money.


17 - Mr. Z 50/1 Ramon Vazquez (Debut) D Wayne Lukas (4-47)


Notes: You know, maybe Zayat will scratch him and El Kabeir so American Pharoah can move in a couple of spots. That would be the smartest thing they could do. Scratch. This horse doesn’t belong and the only reason he is here is because his owner and trainer have enormous egos and just love seeing their names in those proverbial lights. Nothing more than a pace player.


18 - American Pharoah 5/2 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (3-24)


Notes: Your morning line favorite is a three time grade 1 winner and comes into this off of a pair of blowout scores at Oaklawn in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a race in which he sat off a pacesetter for the first time in his career. He’s getting all of the attention, with folks in his home state of California going as far as to compare him to Seattle Slew, a horse who went through the Triple Crown undefeated in 1977. I think they’re out of their minds. This horse hasn’t really beaten much, something you can say about all of them, but the difference is he’s 5/2 on the board and the rest are going to be much higher. He’s been racing and training in a shoe that has a bar on it to protect part of the injured hoof that forced him to miss the B.C. Juvenile last year. His connections are downplaying it, going as far as to say it’s not a big deal or even a bar shoe. But it is and it is. They’ve been playing catch-up all year, as Baffert crammed a bunch of works into him in February in order to have him ready for the Rebel. This will be his third race in seven weeks after being off over five months and they want him to go this distance with a bar shoe. I’m not saying he’s not an excellent mover or that he isn’t talented. He absolutely is. I probably don’t think as highly of him as most do but he is a good horse. I just think this is too much to ask of him. This field offers a ton of value and is as deep as they come. Using him on the bottom of my exotics based solely on his raw ability but I’m hoping he’s off the board.


19 – Upstart 15/1 Jose Ortiz (0-1) Rick Violette, Jr. (0-2)


Notes: Another who came into the season with a large bandwagon and they had to be ecstatic after his daylight score to start the year in the Holy Bull. But things have gotten strange since. He looked beat on the far turn in the Fountain of Youth before eventually picking up the pieces to win by almost three lengths but was erroneously disqualified from the win. Things got even stranger in the Florida Derby when he was interfered with in the stretch and the stewards didn’t even look at it while his rider was told he was too late to claim foul. Needless to say the Gulfstream Park stewards and this guy’s connections won’t be sending Christmas cards to each other this year. My biggest problems with him are the fact that he had every chance to get by Materiality last time before getting bothered but couldn’t and he missed some time a few weeks back after spiking a fever. Everything needs to go perfectly this time of year and they haven’t. For those reasons, I’m out.


20 - Far Right 30/1 Mike Smith (1-20) Ron Moquett (Debut)


Notes: Looked good winning his first two starts of the year from far back at Arkansas and has shown the ability to get through traffic and win along the inside, great qualities in such a large field. His deep closer running style fits Smith, who won this in that manner with Giacomo back in 2005 at 50-1, and the post is no big deal because of it. American Pharoah beat him by eight lengths last out but Smith said he wasn’t going to catch the winner so he made sure he got the place money and the points. He’s run three times over the course, including a maiden tally and should benefit from the hot pace. Would need everything to break perfectly to win it, and I’m not saying he will, but stranger things have happened. Using him in all of my exotic wagers.


21 – Frammento 50/1 Corey Nakatani (0-17) Nick Zito (2-25)


Notes: Zito really wanted to get him in and got his wish when Pletcher scratched Stanford Thursday afternoon. He’s won just once in seven tries but has run better since adding blinkers two back when he was third in the Fountain of Youth and the only horse really running at the end. Zito has been saying he is a true 10 furlong horse. I will use him on the bottom half of my exotics.


22 – Tale of Verve AE B.J. Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-2)


Notes: From the trainer that brought you your last two longshot Derby runner-ups, Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, he finally broke his maiden in start six last out going 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland. Wasn’t even mentioned in the same breath as the Derby until entry day. I can see why. He needs another scratch to get in and about 15 more after that to have a chance at hitting the board.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby long shots anyone? We've got it


May 1, 2015


Hoping to unearth a Kentucky Derby winner at a price?

We got your long shots right here.


We're talking the next Giacomo, who won at 50-1 and returned $102.60 for a $2 win bet 10 years ago. We're talking Mine That Bird, who won at the same odds in 2009 and paid $103.20. We're even talking Animal Kingdom in 2011, who won at 20-1 ($43.90), and I'll Have Another, who won the next year at 15-1 ($32.60).


Favorites Orb and California Chrome came through the past two years, and 5-2 top choice American Pharoah could make it three in a row Saturday.


The 19-horse field is said to be one of the toughest in years, but there are five horses at 50-1 odds, five at 30-1 and two at 20-1 - 63 percent of the field.


Here goes nothing - or maybe something big:


1. Frosted, 15-1: If trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is right, he's got his horse pitch perfect at the right time. So many issues all seemed to clear up when this gray colt won the Wood Memorial by two lengths under his new rider Joel Rosario - who won the 2013 Derby with Orb. Good post (No. 14), good trainer, good rider and very wealthy owners, Godolphin Racing. Not your ultimate long shot, but double-digit odds are always tempting.


2. Far Right, 30-1: We were loving El Kabeir in this spot, but tenderness near his left front foot discovered Friday morning knocks him out of the race. So we've turned to Far Right, winner of the Smarty Jones and Southwest and a distant second to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby. The upside is Hall of Famer Mike Smith has the mount. He's among the most tenacious riders in the business, and knows his way around Churchill Downs, even from post No. 19. Smith's Derby win came aboard Giacomo in '05 and he'll be riding in his 21st Run for the Roses. Trainer Ron Moquett is a Derby rookie but has seemed even-keeled all week.


3. Itsaknockout, 30-1: Sold on the name. Plus, don't you have to go with at least one of trainer Todd Pletcher's horses? His top horse is 8-1 with a lousy post, the other is 12-1 with only three previous starts ... so here we are. Plus, who can resist the cross-promotion with the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight? Luis Saez aboard? Not great, but he's 3-for-4 with the bay colt if you include the victory in the Fountain of Youth after first-place finisher Upstart was DQ'd to second for interference in the stretch. He was a distant fourth in the Florida Derby, but that's why he's a long shot.


4. Mr. Z, 50-1: Why would Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas even enter this colt, who has only a maiden win to his credit? Well, as rival trainer Nick Zito likes to say, ''If you don't run, you can't even lose.'' And with that logic, Lukas' long shot becomes intriguing. The colt seems to be his own worst enemy - he lugged outside in a race, veered out in another, and what may have been a last-gasp measure, has been fitted with blinkers to keep focused. While he has lost 11 in a row, he's finished in the top three in seven graded stake races, most recently third in the Arkansas Derby. And, two of Lukas' four Derby wins came with long shots - Charismatic (31-1) in 1999 and Thunder Gulch (24-1) in 1995.


5. Firing Line, 12-1: Caught! Technically not a true long shot - but we're hoping his odds increase once betting begins. If not, oh well. Cashing in at current odds won't be hard to take. The colt was beaten twice by a nose by Dortmund, then won the Sunland Derby by 14 1/4 lengths. Jockey Gary Stevens is looking for his fourth Derby win, and first since 1997 with Silver Charm.

 

[CNOTES]

Baffert aiming at 1st 1-2 Derby finish


April 30, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Bob Baffert was a big-shot quarter horse trainer when he took his cowboy hat and scuffed boots to the high-class world of thoroughbred racing. He gave himself three years to make a splash. After a slow start and some embarrassing losses, he found his footing.


Now the Hall of Famer is saddling the top two favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Heady stuff for the kid who grew up watching the race on television in his border hometown of Nogales, Arizona.


''Destiny,'' he jokingly proclaimed Thursday outside his cement-block barn at Churchill Downs.


Baffert has early 5-2 favorite American Pharoah and 3-1 second choice Dortmund in what some believe is the strongest 1-2 punch since trainer Ben Jones won with Citation and finished second with Coaltown in 1948.


''I've got (Jameis) Winston and (Marcus) Mariota in my barn,'' Baffert said, referencing the likely top two picks in the NFL draft. ''I'd love to see them 1-2 turning for home and then see what they're made of.''


He experienced that scenario in 1998, when Real Quiet and Indian Charlie were 1-2 headed for home. Real Quiet won, but Victory Gallop broke up a Baffert exacta; Indian Charlie finished third.


It was the second of Baffert's three Derby victories. He had two firsts and a second in the first three years he entered 19 years ago; his last victory was with War Emblem in 2002.


''I thought, `This is fun, this is easy,''' the white-haired, 62-year-old trainer said. ''When you get older, you start appreciating it more and you realize, `Boy, this is really tough.'''


Quite a difference from his humble beginnings, when he started with one horse. His brothers and a friend cheered him on at his first few races in Southern California. Baffert's horse was badly beaten and they declined his invitation to come back again.


Baffert didn't apprentice under an established thoroughbred trainer, the usual preparation before going out on your own.


''I had to learn by trial and error, which most of it was error,'' he said. ''It was really good for me, though, because it really made me work much harder and it's kept me hungry all these years.''


Baffert is as eager as everyone else to see which is better: American Pharoah or Dortmund. American Pharoah brings a four-race winning streak into the 141st Derby; Dortmund is 6-0


''Until they get with all the other horses, you just don't know what you have,'' Baffert said.


American Pharoah has glided over the Churchill Downs strip since arriving direct from an eight-length win in the Arkansas Derby.


''We know that Pharoah is a brilliant horse,'' the trainer said.


Dortmund has taken a better liking to Churchill's dirt surface than his home track at Santa Anita in California. He's unusually tall (standing 17 hands or nearly 5 feet, 8 inches) and weighs 1,280 pounds.


''He's really, really quick,'' Baffert said. ''He's light on his feet for a big horse.''


American Pharoah, by comparison, is just over 16 hands and weighs 1,170.


Both colts go into the 1 1/4-mile Derby with big targets on their backs.


''Anytime Bob Baffert has a couple of Kentucky Derby horses, you have to give them a lot of respect,'' said rival trainer Todd Pletcher, who will saddle three horses including 8-1 third choice Carpe Diem. ''He's certainly tremendous at getting them there and having them perform well.''


Yet Baffert knows the sting of losing, too.


He thought he had a couple of aces in 2001, with 9-5 favorite Point Given and third choice Congaree. But Point Given, who went on to win Horse of the Year, finished fifth and Congaree third.


''The owners, they can dream in Technicolor,'' he said. ''I dream in black and white. I don't dare get too ahead of myself.''


Baffert visited his first Derby winner, Silver Charm, this week and got teary thinking about his late parents and several of his former clients who provided him with talented horses before they died, too.


''It's very emotional,'' he said. ''I've become a big baby.''

 

[CNOTES]

Baffert is loaded with 2 for Kentucky Derby


May 1, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - Bob Baffert hopes he's celebrating in the winner's circle at the Kentucky Derby. He just doesn't know which horse or owners would join him.


After all, the trainer has the two top favorites for Saturday's race.


American Pharoah, owned by Egyptian Ahmed Zayat, is the early 5-2 favorite for the 141st Derby off an eight-length victory in the Arkansas Derby.


Dortmund is the 3-1 second choice. He's owned by India-born Kaleem Shah, now a U.S. citizen whose pride for his adopted country is evident in the red, white and blue silks his chestnut colt wears.


''Coming in here we feel really strong,'' Baffert said. ''If you get beat, the fall is pretty steep.''


American Pharoah dominated his competition leading to the Derby, winning his last four races by a combined 22 1/4 lengths. Baffert calls him ''brilliant,'' but he's yet to be tested in the kind of fractious conditions the Derby offers. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza, who won last year aboard California Chrome.


''If American Pharoah breaks a step slow, he's going to find himself in a situation that he has not faced before,'' said Mark Casse, who trains 30-1 shot Danzig Moon.


Dortmund stands an imposing 5 feet, 8 inches from the ground to near his shoulder blades and is a son of 2008 Derby winner Big Brown. He is undefeated in six races against tougher competition than his stablemate faced. Martin Garcia works out American Pharoah in the mornings but rides Dortmund in the race.


''This is an exciting, exciting field,'' Zayat said. ''It's fun to have the best of the best running against each other.''


A full field of 20 was reduced to 19 for 1 1/4-mile race after El Kabeir was scratched Saturday. His left front foot was bothering him Friday and the colt trained by John Terranova was sore coming out of his stall the next day. His absence means Calvin Borel, a three-time Derby winner, won't ride.


Todd Pletcher brings three horses to the race: Carpe Diem, the 8-1 third choice; Florida Derby winner Materiality; and Itsaknockout, fittingly running on the same day as the Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Manny Pacquiao fight in Las Vegas.


''We're ready,'' Pletcher said. ''Let's go.''


Materiality didn't run as s 2-year-old and no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without racing as a sophomore. His pedigree suggests he could overcome the jinx: his sire Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont in 2005.


Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem cost $1.6 million and a win in the Derby (worth $1.4 million) would help his owners recoup most of their investment. John Velazquez clearly saw something in the colt because he chose to ride Carpe Diem instead of Materiality in the Derby. But he will have to overcome the No. 2 post; getting away from the starting gate quickly could minimize the chance of getting trapped inside.


This year's field is deep and talented, and absent Baffert's dynamic duo, there are other horses with solid credentials who in a different year would be more highly regarded.


Among them:


-Mubtaahij, an Ireland-bred trying to win the Derby by preparing outside the U.S. and then traveling halfway around the world to reach Louisville. He won the UAE Derby by eight lengths and his South African trainer Mike de Kock is highly regarded.


-Firing Line, a colt that twice had photo-finish defeats to Dortmund before winning the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths in track-record time.


-International Star, a versatile colt that swept the trio of Derby preps at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. He has tactical speed to get good position, helpful in a crowded race. ''He's razor sharp and rarin' to go,'' trainer Mike Maker said. ''Show up at 5:45 tomorrow and he'll put all your questions to bed.''


-Frosted, the Wood Memorial winner, is owned by a member of the ruling family of Dubai. Godolphin Racing is 0 for 7 in previous Derby tries, but this time Sheikh Mohammad had his horse prep in the U.S.


-Upstart beat Frosted in the Holy Bull and finished second behind Materiality in the Florida Derby.


Baffert jokes that it's been so long since the last of his three Derby victories in 2002 that he doesn't remember. He knows, though, what a horse must do if it is to wear the garland of red roses.


''You need to get a decent post, break well, get the trip,'' he said. ''It's the toughest field I've been involved in since Silver Charm (in 1997).''


American Pharoah, Dortmund, Carpe Diem and Materiality have combined to win 17 of 19 races, including a 10-0 mark this year.


''The hype is over with,'' said Ken Ramsey, who owns International Star. ''It's time for potential to develop into performance.''

 

[CNOTES]

Churchill's backside takes care of horses


May 1, 2015


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) - The white-haired horseman still sleeps above the stable.
When the sun comes up, 87-year-old Richard Miller shuffles from his little room above barn No. 11 on the backside of Churchill Downs. He plops into a plastic chair on the balcony and waves to the stable hands who do the job he did for six decades - the one he would still be doing if his body would let him.


''I once walked a horse worth a million dollars,'' he likes to brag. ''I'd rather be down there now walking the horses.''


But now, Miller is a ward of the backside. The other grooms help him take a bath, trim his hair and tie his shoes. He lives in the horse barn because he's always lived in a horse barn. He can't imagine living anyplace else.


''He's an old racetracker, true and tough,'' said Greg Foley, the trainer for whom he worked for 30 years. ''So he's going to stay here with us as long as we can take care of him.''


Work days on the backside begin before dawn, pay is skimpy and attire trends toward jeans and T-shirts, a world away from the high-roller suits and plumed hats on Millionaire's Row for the Kentucky Derby.


For the 160,000 fans packed into the track on Derby Day, the green-shingled barns of the backside are scenery. And the 1,000 workers who toil in obscurity inside of them don't expect the visitors to give them much thought.


''We're indispensable; they can't do this without us,'' said Mike Wells, who has spent the last nine years as a hot walker, offering the horses soothing words as he leads them around the stable to cool off after workouts.


It's not always as serene as it sounds: He's been bitten, kicked, stepped on and slammed into walls by powerful horses.


They feed, exercise, bathe the thoroughbreds, part of a morning ritual that runs like clockwork. Most of them live there, too, crammed into dorms, small apartments and tack rooms.


It is, depending on who's describing it, a little city or a giant family. They have a chapel, a school and an annual Easter egg hunt.


Ken Boehm, the track's chaplain, says Miller's life at the Greg Foley Racing Stables is evidence that the backside isn't filled with roughnecks, gamblers and boozers.


It is a community of workers, from dozens of nations, he said. They take care of the horses, and they take care of their own. And Miller is one of their own.


Like many others, the Foley crew spends the winters at the racetrack in New Orleans and returns to Churchill each fall. This year, as the workers packed up to come home, they loaded Miller's recliner into a stall of the horse van. Then they sat him in it, put a blanket over him and he slept the whole way home to his tack room, maybe 100 square feet, with a twin bed, his recliner, a dresser with a small flat-screen TV on top and a portable commode.


He gets Social Security benefits, but he tries to withdraw as little as he can, he said. He only bets a few dollars every now and then, when he's really fallen for a horse.


Twice a week they go for lunch at Wagner's Pharmacy, the fabled diner across from the racetrack. He always orders his favorite, biscuits and gravy. Everybody knows him, said cashier Carolyn Beacher.


As Miller sits on the barn's balcony petting his 13-year-old cat Prince and watching backside workers bustle by, he lights a Kool menthol.


''You know those are gonna kill you, old buddy,'' one passer-by shouted up at him. The old man threw his head back and howled.


Sometimes Miller says he's 78, sometimes 81. The crew jokes the he's fibbing to fool young ladies. But they know he really just can't remember.


''His mind is slipping,'' Foley said.


Miller said he was born in 1927 and raised in Evansville, Indiana, by a single mother who worked at a refrigerator factory. He never went to high school.


Instead, he got his first job on the backside of a racetrack when he was 15 years old, he said. He's lived on one ever since.


He joined Foley's crew in the early 1980s.


Foley trained a prize horse named Champali, who won a dozen races and made $1,073,794. In 2004, at the height of Champali's career, Miller was the only worker Foley trusted to walk him.


Miller fell and broke his hip soon after that, and the crew worried it might be the end of his time on the backside.


But Miller recovered from the surgery and walked horses for another seven years. He decided it was time to retire about three years ago when he just couldn't keep up anymore.


On Derby day, they'll sit him outside their barn and task him with running off anybody who doesn't belong. He likes to feel like he's contributing something.


But Foley dreads that a day will come when Miller needs more than his crew can give. He suspects Miller won't last long once they take him off the track.

 

[CNOTES]

At the Gate - Saturday


May 2, 2015


It’s going to be a marathon today, with the Kentucky Derby card getting underway with a first post of 10:30 am ET and the finale is slated to go off at 8:05 pm ET. That is a long day.

It will be worth it, as the Derby Day card features seven graded stakes highlighted by the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1).

A field of 19 will go to the post, with Frammento replacing Stanford, who trainer Todd Pletcher elected to scratch. In addition, El Kabeir came down with a foot issue and is scratched.

As of 9:00 last night there was $186,276 in the win pool in advanced wagering for the Kentucky Derby and American Pharoah is the favorite, right on his 5-2 morning line odds.

Next is Dortmund, who is 9-2, up from his 3-1 morning line, which I thought was a bit low considering such a large field. Blue Grass winner Carpe Diem is next in line at 7-1, down a point from his 8-1 morning line.

The biggest mover in early betting was Frosted, who has gone from his 15-1 morning line down to 9-1. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee won the Wood Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct in his last outing.


The colt bounced back after stopping in the stretch to finish fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park. Throat surgery was performed on the colt and he bounced back with a solid effort in the Wood.

The stakes action n leading up to the Kentucky Derby is solid. The $500,000 Woodford Reserve (G1) is missing Wise Dan, who won the race the past two years, making this year’s edition wide open.

Seek Again is the 4-1 morning line favorite and makes his first start since running ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) last fall.

Stephanie’s Kitten (9-2) is interesting as the late running mare takes on the boys. Todd Pletcher will send out Jack Milton (5-1), who won the Maker’s 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his last outing.

After handicapping the opening three days at Belmont Park and 25 races at Churchill Downs over the past two days, I ran out of gas, so no Belmont Park for Saturday. I just put everything into the Derby Day card and hoping it pays off big for us.

To purchase my Churchill Downs Report for Kentucky Derby Day click here.

Today’s Featured Races of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 8 The Distaff Turf Mile G2 (2:59 ET)
5 Coffee Clique 3-1
8 Sandiva 7-2
4 Lady Lara 7-2
1 Personal Diary 8-1

Analysis: Coffee Clique finished evenly in a third place finish behind a couple of these in the Honey Fox (G2) last out at Gulfstream Park in her first start off a nine-month layoff. She did not look as if she was fully cranked after Lynch had to stop on her after winning the Just a Game (G1) last June, the mare having a bone bruise. She won this race last year at nearly 6-1 and was perfect in her three starts in '14. The barn is 27% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. She figures to move forward off her last outing and will turn the tables.

Sandiva had the lead heading for home and came up just a neck short in the Honey Fox, beating our top pick by 1 1/4 lengths for the place spot. She won the Suwanee River (G3) two back and now has run back-to-back career top speed figs. She was giving four pounds to Honey Fox winner Lady Lara last out and now she gets two pounds from that rival.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,4,5,8,9

CD Race 9 The Churchill Downs G2 (3:43 ET)
4 Private Zone 2-1
5 Pants On Fire 5-1
2 Bayern 1-1
1 C. Zee 15-1

Analysis: Private Zone set the early fractions and got run down late by the fast closing Honor Code in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2). Honor Code looks as if he is going to be a major player in the handicap division and went in Friday's Alysheba (G2) here. Our top pick won twice last year, both Grade 1 races, taking the Vosburgh and Cigar Mile. The cut back to seven furlongs should suit this guy.

Pants On Fire came off a 3 1/2 month break to win the Sir Shackleton last out at Gulfstream Park at seven furlongs in a sharp effort. His other try at seven furlongs produced a near career top speed fig winning the Wild N Wonderful at Charles Town, with three he beat in that race coming back to win next out. (That race was a two-turn seven-furlong race). The Breen trainee owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks like the value of the race if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line.

Bayern makes his first start since his controversial win in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) last November. He won 6 of 10 starts last year including the seven furlong Woody Stephens (G2) at Belmont Park. His lone start over the main track here was in the Derby Trial (G3) at a mile where he crossed the wire in front but was DQ'd for interference. The Bob Baffert barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. This is a tough spot for his return and the price is going to be puny.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 4,5 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,4,5,6

Good luck today!

 

[CNOTES]

My Picks for Today's Derby:




(Post Time: 6:34) Surface: Dirt GET PPs
Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands
1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds | G1 STAKES | Purse: $2,000,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 11-12-13) Super Hi-5


# PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED.


1 1 Ocho Ocho Ocho
ML: 50-1 E. Trujillo
126 Lbs J. Cassidy - L


2 2 Carpe Diem
ML: 8-1 J. Velazquez
126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L


3 3 Materiality
ML: 12-1 J. Castellano
126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L


4 4 Tencendur
ML: 30-1 M. Franco
126 Lbs G. Weaver - L


5 5 Danzig Moon
ML: 30-1 J. Leparoux
126 Lbs M. Casse - L


6 6 Mubtaahij (IRE)
ML: 20-1 C. Soumillon
126 Lbs M. de Kock -


7 7 El Kabeir
ML: 30-1 C. Borel
126 Lbs J. Terranova, II - L


8 8 Dortmund
ML: 3-1 M. Garcia
126 Lbs B. Baffert - L


9 9 Bolo
ML: 30-1 R. Bejarano
126 Lbs C. Gaines - L


10 10 Firing Line
ML: 12-1 G. Stevens
126 Lbs S. Callaghan - L


11 11 Stanford
ML: 30-1 F. Geroux
126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L


12 12 International Star
ML: 20-1 M. Mena
126 Lbs M. Maker - L


13 13 Itsaknockout
ML: 30-1 L. Saez
126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L


14 14 Keen Ice
ML: 50-1 K. Desormeaux
126 Lbs D. Romans - L


15 15 Frosted
ML: 15-1 J. Rosario
126 Lbs K. McLaughlin - L


16 16 War Story
ML: 50-1 J. Talamo
126 Lbs T. Amoss Blk-Off L


17 17 Mr. Z
ML: 50-1 R. Vazquez
126 Lbs D. Lukas - L


18 18 American Pharoah
ML: 5-2 V. Espinoza
126 Lbs B. Baffert - L


19 19 Upstart
ML: 15-1 J. Ortiz
126 Lbs R. Violette, Jr. - L


20 20 Far Right
ML: 30-1 M. Smith
126 Lbs R. Moquett - L


21 AE Frammento
ML: 50-1 C. Nakatani
126 Lbs N. Zito - L


22 AE Tale of Verve
ML: 50-1 B. Hernandez, Jr.
126 Lbs D. Stewart - L










WPS 20 ACROSS = 60.00


15 15 Frosted
ML: 15-1 J. Rosario
126 Lbs K. McLaughlin - L


10 EXACTA = 30.00


15 15 Frosted
ML: 15-1 J. Rosario
126 Lbs K. McLaughlin - L


WITH


2 2 Carpe Diem
ML: 8-1 J. Velazquez
126 Lbs T. Pletcher - L


14 14 Keen Ice
ML: 50-1 K. Desormeaux
126 Lbs D. Romans - L


8 18 American Pharoah
ML: 5-2 V. Espinoza
126 Lbs B. Baffert - L




10 TRIFECTA.....SAME AS ABOVE....... = 30 .00FROSTED ON TOP/ # 2 CARPE DIEM, # 14 KEEN ICE, # 18 AMERICAN PHAROAH


TOTAL 120 DOLLARS