Cnotes ALDS & NLDS Championship Series Best Bets !

Search

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

The six most expensive colleges in America, and tuitions:

6) Northwestern, Evanston, IL $40,223

5) Washington U, St Louis, $41,892

4) Chicago U, Chicago $42,041

3) Wesleyan, Middletown, CT $42,084

2) Sarah Lawrence, Bronxville, NY $45,212

1) Columbia, New York City, $45,290


***********************


Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Random mid-week thoughts.......

13) If you’re not from upstate New York, allow me a minute to digress; an era has ended in Albany broadcasting. John Graney, as fine a talkshow host as there is in this country, hung up his mike last week after 40 years in the business.

Its too bad he never got to work on a national stage, because he’s every bit as good as anyone who is or has been on that stage. He’s a good guy, too, unlike some of the egotistical nitwits who man the airwaves. John’s show will be missed, for sure. Enjoy your retirement, sir.

12) Staying local for one last bit, Siena’s basketball game at Iona will be played at Madison Square Garden January 3rd.

11) What is TCU basketball coach Jim Christian telling his recruits? First of all, the Horned Frogs aren’t any good in Mountain West, then they were moving to deep waters of the faraway Big East, but now, without coming within a year of their first Big East game, they’ve already jumped to the Big 12, whose waters are equally deep but the travel is way easier. Christian is going to have a hard time keeping his job for long in that league, unless he suddenly becomes a bigtime recruiter.

10) For my handicapping purposes, it’s be great if every league was ten teams and played a home/home series like the Big X is doing this year. Pac-12 isn’t doing it anymore; looks like 12 teams is going to wind up more the norm. Anything is better than 16-team leagues.

9) When the NBA re-appears, they should re-engineer the whole league. Cut the schedule to 64 teams to create a better product so teams can occasionally practice. Make the playoffs best-of-3 or best-of-5, to create some drama. Cut ticket prices. Make league more middle class friendly, or at least somewhat so. Awful lot of empty seats at these games the last few years. I know, this has zero chance of ever happening.

8) This will sound silly coming from someone who gets tired driving 26 miles, but do people realize that running a marathon is unhealthy? Its bad for you to run that far all at once- the guy in Greek mythology, who ran the original 26 miles to save the Athenian Army in Battle of Marathon? He dropped dead after finishing his run. A 35-year old fireman in Chicago died running a marathon Sunday. He freakin' died. ‘nuff said.

7) Since 2001, NFL favorites of more than 7 points are 89-90 vs spread in Games 1-5, 161-200-3 in Games 6-14, 47-49-1 in Games 15-16.

6) If I managed a big league baseball team, I’d want a staff member monitoring the game on TV, just in case they could pick something up from TV that you couldn’t see from the dugout. Never hurts to have an extra pair of eyes.

5) Buffalo Bills are already +11 in turnovers; they’ve had a positive ratio in every game so far this season. Want to see how they do in a game when they don’t win the turnover battle.

4) NFL red flags: Lions have 21 penalties for 169 yards in their last two games……..Texans have been outscored in the second half of every game this season.

3) Very surprised to read that baseball teams are going to be more vigilant on monitoring the conditioning of their players during the offseason. Guess my surprise is that its necessary- you’d think with the big money these guys make, they’d keep themselves in shape year-round.

2) If you use trends to handicap the NFL, one of the big obstacles to success is deciding when a team has broken through and rendered their past useless. Looks like the Lions are doing that this season, and the Bills might be too, though still not 100% sold on Buffalo. Detroit is a nasty team with some good offensive weapons. They’re legitimately good.

1) As always, the real loser in the NBA debacle is the little guy, the beer vendor, waiter, bus driver, limo driver, ticket seller who needs his job to make ends meet, but might lose it because millionaires can’t agree on how to split the pie. Just terrific.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Dunkel



Milwaukee at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 4-18 in Yovani Gallardo's last 22 starts as an underdog. St. Louis is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12

Game 913-914: Texas at Detroit (4:20 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.506; Detroit (Porcello) 16.592
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Under

Game 911-912: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.759; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.995
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Long Sheet


Wednesday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (100 - 69) at ST LOUIS (94 - 75) - 8:05 PM
YOVANI GALLARDO (R) vs. CHRIS CARPENTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 70-46 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 75-55 (+7.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 44-21 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 24-14 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
CARPENTER is 8-1 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 101-69 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-30 (+16.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 101-69 (+22.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
MILWAUKEE is 82-50 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 177-149 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 92-86 (-22.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 180-152 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 23-29 (-17.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 84-76 (-28.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CARPENTER is 7-11 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 7-11 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
CARPENTER is 2-8 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 10-10 (+0.5 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
10 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GALLARDO is 1-7 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.66 and a WHIP of 1.338.
His team's record is 2-9 (-9.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.0 units)

CHRIS CARPENTER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
CARPENTER is 6-6 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.318.
His team's record is 6-9 (-6.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-7. (+0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS (101 - 67) at DETROIT (98 - 71) - 4:15 PM
MATT HARRISON (L) vs. RICK PORCELLO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+1.4 Units) against TEXAS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.4 Units)

MATT HARRISON vs. DETROIT since 1997
HARRISON is 0-4 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 7.42 and a WHIP of 2.175.
His team's record is 0-5 (-5.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. TEXAS since 1997
PORCELLO is 1-1 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.30 and a WHIP of 1.900.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Short Sheet


Wednesday, October 12


NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Tied 1-1
MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET TBS
GALLARDO: MIL 1-9 revenging home loss of 8+ runs
CARPENTER: 2-11 TSR as a home favorite of -150 or more

AL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 4
TEXAS at DETROIT, 4:15 PM ET (TC) | FOX
HARRISON: 14-2 TSR 2nd half of season
PORCELLO: 13-4 TSR 2nd half of season

** (TC) Denotes Time Change
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Wednesday, October 12


Home side won first three games of ALCS. Rangers won Harrison's last six starts (5-0, 2.78) he is 0-2, 7.20 in two starts against the Tigers this year. Porcello is 0-2, 4.50 in his last four starts; he beat Texas 8-1 June 7 in Arlington, allowing one run in six IP. Harrison has 1.82 RA in his last four road starts. Porcello has a 6.31 RA in his last six home starts. Both Beltre/Victor Martinez got banged up tonight; not sure if they play here.

Carpenter is 4-0, 1.56 in his last six starts, blanking Philly 1-0 in Game 5 of last series; he is 2-2, 3.86 against the Brewers this year, allowing two runs in 17 IP in last two. Milwaukee won last five Gallardo starts (3-0, 2.12); he is 0-3, 9.19 in his last three starts vs St Louis, after blanking Cards for eight innings in his first start against them May 7. He has a 2.84 RA in his last three road starts. Brewers lost four of last five road games, including both playoff games in Arizona.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB


Wednesday, October 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:19 PM
TEXAS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Texas's last 13 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home

8:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
St. Louis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 10 games
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Brewers, Cardinals Clash In Crucial Game 4
Been there, done that.
And the Brewers don’t want to do it again...if they can help.
We’re talking about Milwaukee postseason history against St. Louis, which was a brief but historic one prior to meeting up again with the Cardinals in this year’s NLCS.
Remember that once upon a time, the Brew Crew campaigned in the American League, and in the magical year of 1982 managed to advance to the World Series, the first-ever such excursion for the franchise that began as the expansion Seattle Pilots in 1969.
Eventually, however, that experience turned into a negative one for Milwaukee, as it hooked Whitey Herzog’s Cardinals in the "Beer City" World Series. Like they did in Game 1 in 1982 (when winning 10-0), the Brewers romped in this year's NLCS opener vs. the Cards over the weekend.
Unfortunately, as in 1982, the Brewers also lost Game 2 vs. the Redbirds. And a difference between 1982 and now is that the first two games in that long-ago series were played in St. Louis. Milwaukee is certainly hoping that history stops repeating itself as soon as possible, as it went on to lose to the Redbirds in seven games in the 1982 Series.
Now, the Brew Crew has to travel to the new Busch Stadium for the middle three games of this year’s NLCS. It's a daunting assignment considering the Brewers’ season-long struggles away from Miller Park, and capitulations on the road at Arizona in the NLDS, losing both games last week in Phoenix by a combined score of 18-7.
Likewise, Game 4 on Thursday figures to be a challenge for Milwaukee, although it might take some encouragement from a pitching matchup that features its own Randy Wolf against the hittable Kyle Lohse. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by TBS.
Although the Brewers lost on September 6 at Busch against Lohse, who pitched six shutout innings while allowing only four hits that night, Milwaukee might still like its chances in this matchup. The Brewers chased Lohse after five innings in the previous meeting July 10 at Miller Park, with Milwaukee scoring four runs in five innings off Lohse in an eventual 8-3 win. The Brew Crew also beat Lohse on May 7 at Busch.
For his career, Lohse is only 4-8 vs. Milwaukee, with an unimpressive 4.80 ERA. And in his lone postseason appearance this season, Lohse was rocked in Game One of the NLDS at Philadelphia, allowing six runs (five of them earned) in just 5 1/3 IP vs. the Phils in an eventual 11-6 Redbirds loss.
Brewer starter Wolf, however, is not exactly hitting the NLCS with a head of steam, either. In his lone NLDS appearance against the Diamondbacks, Wolf was pummeled to the tune of seven runs on eight hits and three walks in just three innings of work in a 10-6 Game 4 loss at Chase Field. The veteran lefty had a number of shaky outings the last six weeks of the regular season, and over his last three starts has 26 hits and 7 walks in addition to 17 earned runs over just 14 2/3 IP (10.43 ERA).
"Wolfie" did put the clamps on the Cards the last time he faced them on September 5 at Busch, however, limiting them to just one run on four hits in eight solid innings of work en route to a 4-1 Milwaukee win. That effort, however, came on the heels of being smoked the week before at Miller Park by the Redbirds, who lashed three homers among their seven hits that resulted in six runs over just five innings against Wolf. The Cards won that one, 8-3.
Wolf’s career numbers vs. St. Louis are modest at best, with an 8-8 record and 3.91 ERA.
Early trending in this series pointed to the ‘over’ as the teams raced well beyond posted totals in the first two games when tallying a combined 30 runs. Whatever happens in Wednesday’s Game 3 between aces Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter, it would be no surprise if the slugfest element returns to this NLCS for Game 4 at Busch.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Verlander, Tigers Battle Rangers ALCS Game 5 Preview
Well, Detroit at least guaranteed there would be a Game 5 of the ALCS when beating Texas by a 5-2 count in Tuesday’s Game 3.
Moreover, they assured ace and likely AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander one more outing in this series. Not to mention assuring Tigers fans of at least two more trips to Comerica Park, where the eyeglasses have been thankfully been restored to the Ernie Harwell statue at the entrance to the ballyard.
Depending upon Wednesday’s result, the Tigers can either put themselves in a position to take a 3-2 lead back to Arlington, or be fighting to stay alive in a series that Texas would be able to wrap up if it prevailed in Game 4. Such are the important dynamics for this Game 5 matchup on Thursday at colorful Comerica. First pitch is slated at 4:19 p.m. (ET). TV coverage will be provided by Fox, with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver (just off of the DL himself) on the call.
As mentioned, Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA in regular season) will get another chance at the Rangers after losing a rain-delayed Game 1 in Arlington last Saturday. Again, he will be opposed by Texas lefty C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in regular season).
It’s worth noting, however, that neither Verlander nor Rangers ace Wilson have been setting the world on fire in the postseason.
As for Verlander, he hasn’t looked his normal dominant self in the playoffs, allowing eight runs (all earned), 12 hits and five walks over 13 IP (6.75 ERA), although he did get the win in a crucial Game 3 over the Yanks in the ALDS. Detroit can be somewhat encouraged, however, by Verlander’s 6-2 mark and 2.31 ERA over his career vs. Texas. Not to mention his 10-3 record, 0.94 WHIP, and .198 OBA at Comerica during the regular season.
Meanwhile, Wilson has not exactly been overpowering lately, either, allowing ten runs (eight earned) and 13 hits over only 9 2/3 IP in a pair of games vs. the Rays and Tigers, with the latter outing interrupted by rain delays and limiting him to just 4 2/3 IP last Saturday at Rangers Ballpark.
In two starts vs. the Tigers this season, Wilson has allowed 12 hits and 10 runs (seven of those earned) in just 11 1/3 IP, with an ERA at a hefty 5.56.
Of some concern to the Tigers is the status of DH Victor Martinez, who strained an intercostal muscle on a home run swing in Game 3 on Tuesday.
There were several positive signs for the Tigers in Game 3, especially regarding an offense that awakened after a sleepy first two games in Texas. Aside from Martinez hitting his homer, Miguel Cabrera and his bat resurfaced with a long home run and Austin Jackson cranked out three hits as the Tigers clawed back into the series.
Such fireworks are crucial because the Detroit offense has been missing a couple of capable components. One of those, OF Delmon Young, sat out Game 3 because of a sore oblique and is listed as day-to-day by manager Jim Leyland. That’s more encouraging than the status of OF Magglio Ordoñez, who is out for the duration of the playoffs with a broken ankle.
Note that the Tigers have also received solid work from their bullpen combo of set-up man Joaquin Benoit and closer Jose Valverde, who have combined to allow just two hits and no runs over five innings of work in the last two games of this series. This might prove to be a deciding advantage for the Tigers, especially since Texas manager Ron Washington is contemplating some adjustments in his bullpen, specifically regarding set-up man Koji Uehara, who has not been effective in his role lately.
As for the Rangers, also watch the status of 3B Adrian Beltre, who was limping on a sore knee during Tuesday’s Game 3, limiting his range somewhat at the hot corner.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Thursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas - 4:19 PM ET Texas +149 500
Detroit -
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Brewers look to even up NLCS with Cards

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

NLCS Game 4 - St. Louis leads series 2-1
First pitch: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -135, Milwaukee +125, Total: 8.5
The Cardinals can move one game closer to avoiding a return trip to Milwaukee when they host the Brewers for Game 4 of the NLCS Thursday night.
With St. Louis’ Game 3 win, the Brewers’ road losing streak ran to four and they fell to 39-45 (-8.1 Units) away from home of the year. But this was a team that went 4-4 in St. Louis during the regular season, and Game 4 starter Randy Wolf has had back-to-back excellent road starts against the Cards. He and Cardinals righty Kyle Lohse make the pitching matchup in this game very even, especially with both bullpens throwing well. And in a matchup that’s close to a coin flip, underdog MILWAUKEE is the pick.
The FoxSheets have a pair of trends backing the Brewers as well:
MILWAUKEE is 45-25 (64.3%, +19.0 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).
MILWAUKEE is 57-28 (67.1%, +23.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 4.6, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*).
Wolf (13-10, 3.69 ERA in the regular season) was knocked around in Arizona in his Game 4 NLDS start, allowing seven runs and 11 base runners, including two home runs, in just three innings. It was a third straight ugly outing for Wolf, who’s now allowed 17 runs and 34 base runners over his past 14.2 innings (10.43 ERA, 2.32 WHIP).
But the lefty threw a great game in St. Louis a month ago, holding the Cardinals to one run over eight innings in a victory. He also threw eight innings of one-run ball in a victory at Busch Stadium in August and has won four of his past five starts in St. Louis.
Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA in the regular season) finished the regular season strong, but did not pitch well in the NLDS, allowing six runs (five earned) over 5.1 innings in Philadelphia.
Lohse’s overall track record against Milwaukee is not good (4-8, 4.89 ERA in 17 career starts) but the results in St. Louis have been more encouraging. His six innings of shutout ball on September 6 was the Cards’ first Busch Stadium win over the Brewers with Lohse on the mound. But he’s made five quality starts in six outings against the Brewers in St. Louis, posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in these 39 innings against Milwaukee.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Thursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -135 500

St. Louis - Over 8.5 500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLBThursday, October 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis -135 500

St. Louis - Over 8.5 500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Milwaukee Brewers, St. Louis Cardinals NLCS Game 5





Zack Greinke really hasn't been much of a mystery to hitters this postseason at Miller Park, and is hoping a start on the road will help turn him around.
Jaime Garcia is happy to be home where he was significantly better in 2011, and he's looking to put a horrible outing in the NLCS opener behind him.
A rematch of Game 1's starters is in store for Friday's NLCS contest when the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will break a 2-2 deadlock. Overnight numbers had the Cardinals on a -115 money line with the MLB odds showing 7½ for the total.
Milwaukee evened things up Thursday night with a 4-2 victory in Game 4. Randy Wolf overcame two early solo homers by St. Louis to toss seven innings for the Brewers, and then turned it over to the Brewers bullpen to finish things off.
The Cardinals closed Game 4 as 135-140 favorites, and the 6-run final was the first 'under' of the NLCS following a pair of 'overs' and a 'push.'
Garcia was playing with fire from the get-go this past Sunday when he and Greinke opened the series. He walked two and hit a batter in the first inning and was lucky to escape trailing just 2-1. The only 3-up, 3-down frame he had was the fourth, when the Cards had gifted Garcia with a 5-2 lead. The Brewers opened up on him the next inning, chasing him with four hits to eventually retake an 8-5 lead.
His previous postseason start saw Garcia make just one mistake, but it cost him and the Cardinals with Ben Francisco's 3-run pinch blast in Game 3 of the NLDS giving the Phillies the win. Still, it was a much better outing and came here at Busch where the Cards were 11-4 behind their lefty during the regular season. One of those 11 wins was a 2-hit shutout against the Brewers in early May.
Milwaukee's 17-0 mark at home behind Greinke has been well publicized. But just like that mark was a key to the team's success at Miller Park, the Brewers' 6-7 record (4.70 ERA) when he pitches on the road equally reflects the club's struggles away from home.
The Brewers have won each of Greinke's two postseason starts, both at home, but Greinke was anything but solid in either outing. The Diamondbacks took him yard three times in Game 2 of the NLDS, and the Cardinals scored six times during his six innings in the NLCS opener when he faced Garcia.
He pitched well enough to win his lone start at Busch this season, but Brewers bats were silent in a 2-0 loss to Chris Carpenter at the Cards in a game that closed as a pick 'em at the MLB betting windows. Overall vs. St. Louis in 2011, Greinke was 2-1 in three assignments with a 3.15 ERA (20 IP).
Bill Miller, Friday's plate umpire, doesn't give bettors much of an angle following a 17-17-1 record on the totals in 2011. He did wind up the campaign going 5-1 'over' and was 3-0-1 to the high side in games that involved the Brewers or Cardinals.
The 15-year veteran is working his eighth postseason series and called Game 3 of last year's Fall Classic, Texas' only win over the Giants in the 5-game set. Totals in his seven previous playoff plate assignments have split 3-3-1.
A clear and windy day is in the forecast for St. Louis on Friday. West winds in the 12-15 mph range will be blowing out to right in the evening when temps are expected to begin in the mid-50s at game time before dropping to the mid-to-upper 40s.
Milwaukee's win on Thursday means the series will go back to Miller Park for at least a sixth game, which will be Sunday afternoon on TBS (4:05 p.m. ET). A pitching rematch of Game 2 is expected with Edwin Jackson going for St. Louis opposite Shaun Marcum for the Brewers.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
American League Championship Series

Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 Detroit at Texas (-170) 3-2 FAVORITE UNDER (7.5)
2 Detroit at Texas (-148) 7-3 FAVORITE OVER (9)
3 Texas at Detroit (-125) 5-2 FAVORITE UNDER (8.5)
4 Texas (-120) at Detroit 7-3 FAVORITE OVER (9)
5 Texas at Detroit (-150) Oct. 13 FAVORITE OVER (7)
6 Detroit at Texas Oct. 15
*7 Detroit at Texas Oct. 16



National League Championship Series

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Game Matchup Date/Score Favorite-Underdog Over-Under
1 St. Louis at Milwaukee (-142) 9-6 FAVORITE OVER (7.5)
2 St. Louis (+123) at Milwaukee 12-3 UNDERDOG OVER (8.5)
3 Milwaukee at St. Louis (-150) 4-3 FAVORITE PUSH (7)
4 UNDERDOG at St. Louis Oct. 13 UNDERDOG UNDER (8.5)
5 Milwaukee at St. Louis Oct. 14
6 St. Louis at Milwaukee Oct. 16
*7 St. Louis at Milwaukee Oct. 17
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Greinke-Garcia duel in NLCS Game 5

MILWAUKEE BREWERS
at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

NLCS Game 5 - Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Friday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: St. Louis -125, Milwaukee +115, Total: 7.5
The Cards have one more chance to take advantage of the Brewers’ ineptitude on the road when they host Milwaukee for Game 5 of the NLCS on Friday night.
St. Louis will have the right pitcher on the mound. Jaime Garcia has been outstanding in Busch Stadium throughout his career, where he’s 16-9 with a 2.37 ERA over 31 career regular-season starts. Meanwhile, Brewers Game 5 starter Zack Greinke was 5-6 with a 4.70 ERA on the road this year, and he’s been knocked around in both of his postseason starts (10 ER in 11 IP). The Game 4 win pushed Milwaukee’s road record to only 1-3 in the playoffs and 40-45 on the entire season. The money lines are close to even, but they shouldn’t be. ST. LOUIS is the pick.
The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working in the Cardinals’ favor:
Play On - Home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST. LOUIS) - with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season, good fielding team - turning 1.1 or more DP's/game on the season. (73-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +38.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA in the regular season) hasn’t delivered in his first two postseason starts. The Brewers won both of his outings (NLDS Game 2 and NLCS Game 1) thanks to outstanding run support, but Greinke has given up 10 runs and 16 hits in 11 innings so far. St. Louis got to him for six runs in six innings in Game 1. The one positive for Greinke in the postseason is his 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.
There are some good recent road trends for Greinke. He allowed two runs or less in six of his seven post-All-Star break road starts, lasting at least six innings in all of those quality starts. That included a tough-luck loss in St. Louis when he held the Cardinals to two runs over seven innings on September 7. He’s allowed only three runs in Busch Stadium over 14 career innings as a starter. He’s also held Albert Pujols relatively in check (6-for-21, no home runs).
The Cards are 11-5 at home this season with Garcia (13-7, 3.56 ERA in the regular season) starting. But one of those losses was a quality start in Game 3 of their NLDS against the Phillies, when he allowed three runs over seven innings. He’s 3-3 with a 3.64 ERA in eight career starts against the Brewers, but he’s been dazzling at home. In four starts against Milwaukee at Busch Stadium, Garcia has allowed only six runs (two earned) and 18 hits over 28 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout in May when he fanned eight batters.
The Brewers are hoping this game could unearth Corey Hart from a brutal slump. Hart is 1-for-12 in the NLCS, but he’s 9-for-22 career against Garcia.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Friday’s getting tips: Ole Miss suspends four players

Weather to watch

Meteorologists are predicting 11 mph winds blowing out to right field for Friday’s Game 5 in St. Louis between the Brewers and Cardinals.

Who’s hot

MLB: Milwaukee is 23-6 in Zack Greinke’s last 29 starts overall.

NCAAF: Hawaii is 12-4 against the spread in its last 16 games overall.

NHL: Buffalo is 7-2 in its last nine home games.

NHL: Anaheim has won seven of its last 10 home games.

Who’s not

MLB: The under is 6-14-1 in Jaime Garcia’s last 21 starts for St. Louis.

NCAAF: San Jose State is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 home games.

NHL: Carolina is 3-8 in its last 11 trips to Buffalo.

NHL: San Jose has dropped each of its last five road games.

Key stat

28-5-4 – The Carolina Hurricanes were 28-5-4 last season when scoring the first goal of the game. They have scored first in three of their first four games this season but are 1-1-1 in those contests after beating the reigning Cup champion Boston Bruins on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are +155 underdogs Friday at Buffalo.

Injury that shouldn’t be over looked

Brandon Rutley, San Jose State – The status of San Jose State’s top running back remains in question as Rutley is dealing with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, freshman Tyler Ervin could see more work after picking up 40 yards in his first nine carries of the season last week against BYU.

Game of the day

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (N/A)

Notable quotable

"This recovery from Europe isn't just a one-day or a two-day event when you travel the number of hours we did and the difference in time change. There's some nights now where they're ... having trouble getting to sleep." – Anaheim Ducks coach Randy Carlyle about his team’s preparation ahead of Friday’s home opener against San Jose. The Ducks are set as early +100 underdogs.

Notes and tips

Mississippi will be shorthanded when it faces the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend. Ole Miss has suspended four players for breaking team rules earlier this week. Sitting out will be starting running back Brandon Bolden, standout center A.J. Hawkins, special teams star Philander Moore and offensive guard Alex Washington. Mississippi coach Houston Nutt wouldn't elaborate on what the players did to earn the one-game ban. Bolden will be the biggest loss of all, sitting second on the team with 105 rushing yards while scoring a pair of touchdowns. Ole Miss is currently set as a 26.5-point underdog.

College football bettors are all over Hawaii in the Warriors’ Friday night matchup at San Jose State. As of Thursday evening, better than 74 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were supporting Hawaii. San Jose State has won just two of its last five games overall, but is 4-1 against the spread during that span.

Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai expects to be miss Sunday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals with a strained hamstring. Addai said he is a "long shot" to suit up after he was injured late in the opening quarter of last week's game against Kansas City. He was unsure when he'd be healthy to return. Backups Delone Carter and Donald Brown are expected to share the carries in Addai's absence. Addai has rushed for 249 yards and a touchdown this season. Indy is set as a 7-point road underdog.
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

-- Penn State is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games vs Purdue.

-- Ball State covered 13 of last 21 as a double digit underdog.

-- Texas Longhorns are 5-15-1 vs spread in last 21 home games.

-- Georgia Tech is 7-2-1 in last ten games as a road favorite.

-- Pitt Panthers covered eight of last 22 as a home favorite.

-- Tulane covered four of its last 19 home games.


*********************


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend.....

13) If you’re in the Albany area Saturday, Magic Johnson is speaking at SEFCU Arena at 7:00; a crowd of 5,000+ is expected.

12) Can The Eagles snap out of their funk against a rested Washington team? Philly won here 59-28 LY, so they’ll have Redskins’ full attention.

11) Oklahoma State snapped a 12-game skid vs Texas LY, now they’re 7.5-point favorites in Austin; can the Longhorns bounce back from getting crushed by Oklahoma last week?

10) Kansas State-Texas Tech is a good under-the-radar game; Tech has killed them the last three years, but Bill Snyder is working his magic this year, upsetting Miami/Baylor/Missouri in his last three games.

9) Who thought that 49ers-Lions would be the NFL’s feature game this week? Teams are combined 9-1, but Detroit is coming off first Monday night home game in a decade. Bucs got throttled last week coming off their first MNF game in a while, also against the 49ers.

8) Big game in Conference USA Saturday, with SMU-Central Florida a great contrast in styles. UCF coach O’Leary is an old school/smashmouth kind of coach, while June Jones is the guru of Run ‘n Shoot. Not sure if TCU’s jumping to the Big X helps or hurts the Mustangs’ chances of joining that league, since they’ll probably wind up at 12 teams, so they still need to add two more. Being in Dallas obviously helps SMU.

7) Can Arizona State and its 6-foot-8 quarterback go to Eugene and hang with a Duck squad that covered 25 of its last 33 as a home favorite?

6) Times have changed quickly in the Big Dozen, where 3-3 Ohio State is a 4-point dog at 6-0 Illinois. Huh? 6-0 Illinois? This is a very big game for the Illini. Buckeyes are 3-3 with unbeaten Wisconsin up next.

5) Carolina Panthers are 1-4, but covered the spread in three of four losses; their only win came in the rain, but they’ll be dry in the Georgia Dome this week, playing an underachieving Falcon squad that is just 2-3.

4) Texas Rangers are definitely a better team than the Tigers right now, as Detroit's hitters are ravaged by injuries, but can Texas put Detroit away?

3) Brewers-Cardinals have split 22 games this year, heading into Game 5 in St Louis Friday night; Cardinals' starting pitcher failed to finish the fifth inning in the last three games. Hard to win that way.

2) Matt Moore gets his first Dolphin start on Monday night in Swamp, against a Jet squad coming off an 0-3 road trip, while the Fish are off a bye. If Miami can stay close early, the natives could turn on Jet offense.

1) Can Buffalo keep forcing turnovers and send the Giants into their bye week 3-3? Bills have had positive turnover ratio in all five 2011 games. I’m just asking here, but do you think every pro football announcer knows that Swamp Stadium isn’t actually in New York? Or that New Jersey isn’t part of New York? Why do they say they're in New York?
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Dunkel


Milwaukee at St. Louis

The Cardinals look to build on their 10-1 record in Jaime Garcia's last 11 home starts against a team with a winning record. St. Louis is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 14

Game 919-920: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)

Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.316; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.438
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-120); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Friday, October 14


Milwaukee-St Louis are now 11-11 against each other this year; Brewers lost five of last seven road games, including three of four playoff games. Home team won seven of nine Brewer playoff games. Cardinals are 2-2 at home in playoffs. Milwaukee is 14-1 in last 15 Greinke outings; he is 3-1, 4.50 against the Cardinals this year, but has a 6.55 RA in his last four starts. Garcia is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts, 1-1, 6.50 in three starts against Milwaukee this year.




MLB


Friday, October 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games at home
St. Louis is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB


Friday, October 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hot lines: Friday’s best MLB bet
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals (-115, 7.5)

Zack Greinke raised some eyebrows with some interesting comments earlier this week, most notably that St. Louis starter Chris Carpenter was “phony.”

He wasn’t quite as outspoken when he met with the media Thursday, but did give his take on postseason umpiring.

"This is one thing I've been meaning to talk about. I think the home-plate umpires have been amazing so far,” Greinke said. “It's the best zones - better than it is during the regular season. Even the guys I've had, they're not perfect, but in the postseason, the two games I've thrown, I thought, were perfect zones. There have been some mistakes on the field. But calling balls and strikes, I think, is as good as I've ever seen."

Friday’s scheduled umpire is Bill Miller. Unlike a number of umps working games over the last few days, there isn’t much about Miller’s numbers that jump out at baseball handicappers.

But the numbers of Thursday’s starters speak for themselves. Greinke allowed six runs over six innings in his last trip to the hill and St. Louis has dropped each of Jaime Garcia’s last three starts as he’s working on a 7.80 ERA over that span.

"After you make a start where things don't go your way, you get a little anxious," Garcia told reporters about giving up six runs in Game 1 of the NLCS. "But it's part of it. It's part of the game. You've got to have that feeling.”

With these two guys sharing the mound again Friday, we have a pretty good feeling about the over.

Pick: Over
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (101 - 70) at ST LOUIS (95 - 76) - 8:05 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
GREINKE is 9-20 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 5-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 6-16 (-12.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 6-18 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 35-17 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 71-47 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 76-55 (+8.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 45-31 (+9.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ST LOUIS is 45-22 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 25-15 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
GARCIA is 17-6 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 102-70 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 54-31 (+16.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 102-70 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
GREINKE is 23-7 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 23-7 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 181-153 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 85-77 (-28.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 178-150 (-20.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 11-11 (+0.1 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GREINKE is 5-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.41 and a WHIP of 1.235.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
GARCIA is 3-3 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.64 and a WHIP of 1.298.
His team's record is 4-4 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.3 units)
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,351
Tokens
MLB
Short Sheet


Friday, October 14


NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 5 - Tied 2-2
MILWAUKEE at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET TBS
GRIENKE: 5-16 TSR in road night games
GARCIA: STL 10-0 Under if playoff series is tied
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,109,641
Messages
13,461,437
Members
99,486
Latest member
giaoduc783
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com