NFL
Week 7
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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 16
8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh VS Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home.
Sunday, October 19
9:30 AM ET
Los Angeles VS Jacksonville
LA Rams is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games against LA Rams.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Las Vegas VS Kansas City
Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas' last 12 games.
Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Kansas City.
Kansas City is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
Kansas City is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games against Las Vegas.
Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia VS Minnesota
Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games.
Philadelphia is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games.
Philadelphia is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games against Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
Minnesota is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
1:00 PM ET
New England VS Tennessee
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games.
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games.
Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
Tennessee is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against New England.
1:00 PM ET
Miami VS Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games.
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against Cleveland.
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Cleveland.
Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games.
Cleveland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Carolina VS New York
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games.
Carolina is 7-13 SU in its last 20 games.
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games against NY Jets.
NY Jets is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Jets' last 13 games.
NY Jets is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets' last 6 games against Carolina.
4:05 PM ET
Indianapolis VS Los Angeles
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis' last 9 games.
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Indianapolis is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against LA Chargers.
LA Chargers is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers' last 7 games against Indianapolis.
4:05 PM ET
New York VS Denver
NY Giants is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 7 games.
NY Giants is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games.
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Denver.
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games.
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Denver is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
Green Bay VS Arizona
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games.
Green Bay is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Arizona.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games against Green Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
Monday, October 20
7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay VS Detroit
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games against Detroit.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 12 games.
Detroit is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
10:00 PM ET
Houston VS Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games.
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Seattle.
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games against Houston.
Seattle is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
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Week 7
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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 16
8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh VS Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home.
Sunday, October 19
9:30 AM ET
Los Angeles VS Jacksonville
LA Rams is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games against LA Rams.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Las Vegas VS Kansas City
Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas' last 12 games.
Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Kansas City.
Kansas City is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
Kansas City is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games against Las Vegas.
Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia VS Minnesota
Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games.
Philadelphia is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games.
Philadelphia is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games against Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
Minnesota is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
1:00 PM ET
New England VS Tennessee
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games.
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games.
Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
Tennessee is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against New England.
1:00 PM ET
Miami VS Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games.
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against Cleveland.
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Cleveland.
Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games.
Cleveland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.
1:00 PM ET
Carolina VS New York
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games.
Carolina is 7-13 SU in its last 20 games.
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games against NY Jets.
NY Jets is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Jets' last 13 games.
NY Jets is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets' last 6 games against Carolina.
4:05 PM ET
Indianapolis VS Los Angeles
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis' last 9 games.
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Indianapolis is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against LA Chargers.
LA Chargers is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers' last 7 games against Indianapolis.
4:05 PM ET
New York VS Denver
NY Giants is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 7 games.
NY Giants is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games.
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Denver.
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games.
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Denver is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.
4:25 PM ET
Green Bay VS Arizona
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games.
Green Bay is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Arizona.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games against Green Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay.
Monday, October 20
7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay VS Detroit
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games against Detroit.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 12 games.
Detroit is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games against Tampa Bay.
10:00 PM ET
Houston VS Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games.
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Seattle.
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games against Houston.
Seattle is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Longest active home win streaks in college football:
15— Alabama, Boise State
12— Indiana
10— Memphis, Miami, Ohio U
9— Arizona State, Georgia Tech
8— Jacksonville State, Ole Miss
6— LSU, Oklahoma. TCU
Quote of the Day
“I don’t mind kids transferring. You just can’t transfer four times, because it’s not good for you. Four schools in four years, you’ll never have a college degree. But that last place you’ll be at, they’ll really be loyal to you? No, you’re a mercenary.”
John Calipari
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, what two pitchers have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147)?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.
Monday’s quiz
Bill O’Brien was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin.
***********************************************
Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a complete game (111 PT)
Muncy/Hernandez homered for Los Angeles.
Dodgers’ bullpen got total of three outs in the first two games.
Dodgers lead series 2-0; Game 3 is in Los Angeles Thursday.
— Dodger P Blake Snell has very interesting career numbers:
March/April 7-12, 3.89 in 32 starts
May 6-12, 4.57 in 32 starts
June 11-12, 4.44 in 29 starts
July 13-6, 2.43 in 36 starts
August 23-10, 2.45 in 48 starts
September/October 21-10, 2.15 in 45 starts
Much, much better in second half of the season.
— In the 30 years before Indiana hired Curt Cignetti as its football coach, they averaged 4.1 wins per year. Cignetti is 16-2 at Indiana; he makes $9M a year.
Worth it.
— The world is going nuts, or maybe just daytime TV sucks; I walk into a bar for lunch Tuesday and there is a discussion on TV as whether the Baltimore Ravens should fire John Harbaugh.
Huh????
Harbaugh is 186-120 coaching the Ravens, won a Super Bowl. They’re off to a bad start this year; fire the defensive coordinator and move on. Discussing firing Harbaugh is nonsensical.
— I’m a believer that QB’s/WR’s should get stat credit for yardage they gain on pass interference penalties. Would have to be a separate category, but it would be interesting to see the numbers at the end of a season.
— I’m watching Miami-Atlanta NBA exhibition game the other night; they show the Hawks’ owner Anthony Ressler sitting with his wife and it dawns on me that he is married to actress Jami Gertz, who has 102 acting credits on IMDB.com
She was in the movie Less than Zero with Andrew McCarthy/Robert Downey Jr, a very good but very sad movie. She represented the Hawks at the NBA Draft Lottery twice. The Resslers have been married since 1989.
— Famous birthdays, October 15th:
Jim Palmer, 80
Joe Klecko, 72
Mark Wade, 60
Vanessa Marcil, 57
Fred Hoiberg, 53
Connor Barwin, 39
Blaine Gabbert, 36
Teoscar Hernandez, 33
Jack Flaherty, 30
Brandon Pfaadt, 27
— Liberty 30, New Mexico State 27
Liberty led 20-6 at halftime, held on for dear life.
New Mexico State missed a 47-yard FG on the last play.
Aggies outgained Liberty, 388-293, but had three turnovers.
— Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6
Panthers kicked four field goals, led 19-6 at halftime.
FIU ran ball 39 times for 249 yards.
FIU had lost its previous five games vs Western Kentucky.
— Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14
Red Wolves kicked a 38-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
1-6 South Alabama led 14-3 after three quarters.
Arkansas State outgained the Jaguars, 367-293
— Last five baseball players to play for five teams in one season:
2018- Oliver Drake- Indians, Angels, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays
2024- Mike Baumann- Orioles, Angels, Marlins, Mariners, Giants
2025- Jose Urena- Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Mets, Blue Jays
— Steve Weinman, who spent 13 years in the Chicago Bulls’ front office, has been hired by Wake Forest to be the general manager for the Deacons’ men’s/women’s basketball teams.
He’ll work closely with the head coaches on “roster construction, recruiting strategy, transfer portal evaluation, resource allocation and planning”.
— Air Force Falcons are only college football team that has gone over the total in every game they’ve played (6-0) this season.
— RIP to Sandy Alomar Sr, who passed away at age 81; he played 15 years in the big leagues for six different teams, mostly the Angels. He has two sons who played in the minor leagues, Sandy Alomar Jr and Roberto Alomar.
Sandy Alomar Jr had 1,168 career hits; he made the All-Star Game in 1970.
RIP, sir.
Longest active home win streaks in college football:
15— Alabama, Boise State
12— Indiana
10— Memphis, Miami, Ohio U
9— Arizona State, Georgia Tech
8— Jacksonville State, Ole Miss
6— LSU, Oklahoma. TCU
Quote of the Day
“I don’t mind kids transferring. You just can’t transfer four times, because it’s not good for you. Four schools in four years, you’ll never have a college degree. But that last place you’ll be at, they’ll really be loyal to you? No, you’re a mercenary.”
John Calipari
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, what two pitchers have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147)?
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.
Monday’s quiz
Bill O’Brien was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin.
***********************************************
Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….
— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a complete game (111 PT)
Muncy/Hernandez homered for Los Angeles.
Dodgers’ bullpen got total of three outs in the first two games.
Dodgers lead series 2-0; Game 3 is in Los Angeles Thursday.
— Dodger P Blake Snell has very interesting career numbers:
March/April 7-12, 3.89 in 32 starts
May 6-12, 4.57 in 32 starts
June 11-12, 4.44 in 29 starts
July 13-6, 2.43 in 36 starts
August 23-10, 2.45 in 48 starts
September/October 21-10, 2.15 in 45 starts
Much, much better in second half of the season.
— In the 30 years before Indiana hired Curt Cignetti as its football coach, they averaged 4.1 wins per year. Cignetti is 16-2 at Indiana; he makes $9M a year.
Worth it.
— The world is going nuts, or maybe just daytime TV sucks; I walk into a bar for lunch Tuesday and there is a discussion on TV as whether the Baltimore Ravens should fire John Harbaugh.
Huh????
Harbaugh is 186-120 coaching the Ravens, won a Super Bowl. They’re off to a bad start this year; fire the defensive coordinator and move on. Discussing firing Harbaugh is nonsensical.
— I’m a believer that QB’s/WR’s should get stat credit for yardage they gain on pass interference penalties. Would have to be a separate category, but it would be interesting to see the numbers at the end of a season.
— I’m watching Miami-Atlanta NBA exhibition game the other night; they show the Hawks’ owner Anthony Ressler sitting with his wife and it dawns on me that he is married to actress Jami Gertz, who has 102 acting credits on IMDB.com
She was in the movie Less than Zero with Andrew McCarthy/Robert Downey Jr, a very good but very sad movie. She represented the Hawks at the NBA Draft Lottery twice. The Resslers have been married since 1989.
— Famous birthdays, October 15th:
Jim Palmer, 80
Joe Klecko, 72
Mark Wade, 60
Vanessa Marcil, 57
Fred Hoiberg, 53
Connor Barwin, 39
Blaine Gabbert, 36
Teoscar Hernandez, 33
Jack Flaherty, 30
Brandon Pfaadt, 27
— Liberty 30, New Mexico State 27
Liberty led 20-6 at halftime, held on for dear life.
New Mexico State missed a 47-yard FG on the last play.
Aggies outgained Liberty, 388-293, but had three turnovers.
— Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6
Panthers kicked four field goals, led 19-6 at halftime.
FIU ran ball 39 times for 249 yards.
FIU had lost its previous five games vs Western Kentucky.
— Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14
Red Wolves kicked a 38-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
1-6 South Alabama led 14-3 after three quarters.
Arkansas State outgained the Jaguars, 367-293
— Last five baseball players to play for five teams in one season:
2018- Oliver Drake- Indians, Angels, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays
2024- Mike Baumann- Orioles, Angels, Marlins, Mariners, Giants
2025- Jose Urena- Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Mets, Blue Jays
— Steve Weinman, who spent 13 years in the Chicago Bulls’ front office, has been hired by Wake Forest to be the general manager for the Deacons’ men’s/women’s basketball teams.
He’ll work closely with the head coaches on “roster construction, recruiting strategy, transfer portal evaluation, resource allocation and planning”.
— Air Force Falcons are only college football team that has gone over the total in every game they’ve played (6-0) this season.
— RIP to Sandy Alomar Sr, who passed away at age 81; he played 15 years in the big leagues for six different teams, mostly the Angels. He has two sons who played in the minor leagues, Sandy Alomar Jr and Roberto Alomar.
Sandy Alomar Jr had 1,168 career hits; he made the All-Star Game in 1970.
RIP, sir.
Upset alert in NFL Week 7? Why these five favorites could fall, including Jared Goff and the Lions
These favorites could end up as outright losers if they are not careful
Hard to believe, but we're already in the middle of October and on the doorstep of Week 7 in the NFL. This is the period where teams start to separate from one another and either prove that they are a playoff threat or are building toward 2026 if they fall by the wayside.
Through the first chunk of the year, upsets have been a common theme, including in Week 6. There, we accurately predicted that the Seahawks would upset the Jaguars on the road. Meanwhile, Monday night saw a pair of upsets with the Falcons taking down the Bills and the Bears outlasting the Commanders.
Where will the upsets come in Week 7? Let's try and sift through all the madness and identify a handful of favorites that could be ripe for an upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
- When: Monday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Buccaneers ML odds: +198
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minnesota)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Vikings ML odds: +114
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
- When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara)
- TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Falcons ML odds: +110
Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at New York Jets
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)
- TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
- Jets ML odds: +108
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3)
- When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
- TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
- Dolphins ML odds: +134
NFL Week 7 picks and score predictions: Bengals shock Steelers, Rams top Jaguars in London
Here's your weekly dose of John Breech's NFL picks
It took 105 years, but the NFL has finally done it: It has reached total parity. No one is good this year. No one is bad, and except for the Jets, any team can beat any other team. The league is completely unpredictable.I spent five hours last night trying to figure out who's actually good and I came to the conclusion that the Colts might be the only good team in the NFL. The Packers lost to the Browns, so they're out. The Bills have no receiving weapons, so they're out. I'd include the Buccaneers, but they always seem to be playing from behind and although they're 5-1 right now, playing from behind every week doesn't seem like a long-term strategy for winning. I'd also give you the Lions, but any team that has already lost two of their first six games by double digits can't be on my "good" list.
I think I could throw in two of the three teams at the top of the NFC West, but not all three. I want to leave out the 49ers due to their injuries, but i can't because they beat the other two 4-2 teams (Rams and Seahawks). In conclusion, the Colts are good and then you can toss in whichever two NFC West teams you want to throw in there with them.
You know who's not good? The AFC North. The Browns, Ravens and Bengals have combined to go 0-10 since Sept. 22. That's zero wins over three weeks. The Steelers might be able to clinch the division this week.
In the NFC, the Eagles haven't won a single game in the month of October and they still somehow have a one-game lead for first place in their division. Like I said, everyone is average.
Speaking of average, let's get to my picks.
NFL Week 7 picks
Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (2-4)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)It has now been one week since the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco, and I have to say, there is no one more upset about the trade than Mike Tomlin. The Steelers coach was asked about the deal on Monday and he gave a very interesting answer.
"It was shocking to me," Tomlin said. "[Browns general manager] Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me, because it doesn't make sense to me to trade a quarterback -- that you think enough of to make your opening starter -- to a division opponent that's hurting in that area."
To me, there are two key components to this comment:
1. Tomlin is making sure the Browns know that they made a dumb trade. There was no reason to help a division rival, but the Browns did it anyway because they're the Browns. Nothing they do makes sense.
2. Tomlin would much rather be facing Jake Browning. That doesn't mean he's worried about Joe Flacco, it just means that he knows his team probably would have won by five touchdowns if Browning was the starting QB for the Bengals.
Instead, the Steelers are getting Flacco, who gives the Bengals a puncher's chance of pulling off an upset. As a matter of fact, Flacco is probably the last quarterback that Tomlin wanted to see this week. For one, Flacco has beaten Tomlin's Steelers 11 times in his career, including a game that came last season while he was playing for the Colts, so I have to think that there aren't many quarterbacks in the NFL who know Tomlin's defense better than Flacco.
The 40-year-old had exactly four days to prepare for the Packers in Week 6 and he still managed to throw for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Now, he gets a few more days to prepare and he gets to face a Steelers defense that's surrendered the sixth-most passing yards per game this year (245.0).
And let's not forget, this is a Thursday game, which is the one spot in Tomlin's career where his team always seems to struggle. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Steelers are 1-5 on Thursday night and the only win came by four points. In that same span, AFC North teams are 13-3 when hosting another AFC North team in a primetime game. Advantage: Bengals.
This game is giving us the two oldest quarterbacks in the NFL starting against each other on short rest. It's hard enough for a 40-year-old man to get out of bed three days after mowing the lawn, but Aaron Rodgers (41) and Joe Flacco (40) will have to play an actual football game and I'm not sure if they're going to survive. (By they way, if you're wondering whether two 40 year olds have ever faced each other before, the answer is yes: Tom Brady faced Drew Brees three times, but that's it).
The Bengals will be going with their white tiger helmet and I can never pick against the white tiger helmet, so I'll say the Bengals pull off the upset.
PICK: Bengals 23-20 over Steelers | Bengals +5.5 |
L.A. Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville (4-2) in London
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Fubo, try for free)I'd like to start things here by apologizing to the people of London on behalf of the NFL: We are sorry for sending you so many bad teams (I'm not sure if I'm allowed to speak on behalf of the NFL, but I'm going to do it anyway).
During the 18-year history of the International Series, the NFL has sent so many bad teams over to London that I was 65% sure that England was going to declare war on us at some point. Since 2007, there have been a total of 41 NFL games played in London and this game will mark just the SECOND TIME that both teams had a winning record going into the game.
This year alone, fans in London had to sit through the Browns in Week 5 and then the Jets in Week 6. The only upside is that they didn't have to watch the Browns face the Jets. Now, they're getting a possible Super Bowl preview. OK, that might be an exaggeration, but I just want to make sure everyone in London appreciates this game since, at the rate thing are going, they might get another game between two teams with a winning record until 2043.
The Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises this year and one reason they've been winning games is because they've forced more turnovers than any other team in the league. Although the defense has thrived in the turnover department, one thing they haven't fixed is their secondary. Last season, the Jags gave up the most passing yards in the NFL, and this year, things aren't much better. Heading into Week 7, the Jags are surrendering 256.3 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL.
If your defense can't stop the pass, the last person you want to be facing is Matthew Stafford. The Rams' quarterback leads the NFL in passing yards, but that might not mean as much in this game since his favorite target (Puka Nacua) likely won't be playing. If Nacua was healthy, I'd probably take the Rams by double digits, but he's not, so I see this game going down to the wire.
London games are unpredictable, especially when they involve the Jaguars, but I think the Rams are just the better team. And to be honest, the Rams kind of need to win this game as a thank you to every fan in Los Angeles who will be waking up at 6:30 a.m. PT to watch.
PICK: Rams 27-24 over Jaguars | Rams -3
Carolina (3-3) at N.Y. Jets (0-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)I don't think the oddsmakers have watched a single minute of Jets' football this year because New York somehow opened as the favorite in this game. However, that quickly changed on Tuesday morning and I'm guessing that happened because everyone in America with access to a legalized gambling account probably logged on and bet everything they own on the Panthers.
If you want a quick update on the Jets' season, let me give it to you: They have zero wins and the last time we saw them on the field, they finished with negative passing yards. It's almost impossible to finish an NFL game with negative passing yards, but the Jets somehow managed to do it with -10 against the Broncos on Sunday. If you're wondering how that happened, you take the quarterback's passing yards and subtract any yards the team lost to sacks and that's the team passing total. Justin Fields threw for 45 yards, but lost 55 yards to sacks, and that's how you get -10.
Over the past 45 years, there have only been six quarterbacks involved in a game where a team finished with -10 passing yards or less. Let's check out the list:
1980: Cardinals QB Rusty Lisch (-12)
1981: Bears QB Vince Evans (-20)
1985: Falcons QB David Archer (-22)
1987: Bengals QB Dave Walter (-13)
1998: Charger QB Ryan Leaf (-19)
2025: Jets QB Justin Fields (-10)
If you want to stump everyone you know with some football trivia this weekend, ask them to give you just TWO names off this list besides Fields. I'll admit, there's a 50% chance they might guess Ryan Leaf, but there's a zero percent chance they will name anyone else. Rusty Lisch isn't even a real name, I just made that up to see if you were paying attention. Just kidding, he's real. And I only know that because Notre Dame benched him for Joe Montana in 1977, which ended up working out well for Notre Dame.
The point here is that if you finish with negative passing yards, that's usually a sign that it might be time to blow things up and start over on offense, but the Jets don't have time to do that this week, so they're going to be rolling out the same offense against Carolina.
The Jets will also be rolling out the same defense, which actually might be the bigger problem. The Jets have surrendered 130 yards per game on the ground this year, and this week, they have to face the hottest running back in the NFL: Rico Dowdle. There are only two games in the ENTIRE NFL this year where a player has rushed for more than 175 yards and Dowdle has BOTH of them, and they both came in the past two weeks.
I don't know how it happened, but Rico Dowdle suddenly morphed into the best running back in the NFL. There is one thing that's kind of scaring me away from picking the Panthers and that's the fact that they're 0-3 on the road this year and they've been outscored by an average of 16.7 points in those games. On the flip side, the Jets are 0-3 at MetLife and they've been outscored 101-64 in those games. I'm starting to think that there's a 50% chance this game ends in a tie.
PICK: Panthers 20-16 over Jets | Panthers -1.5
New England (4-2) at Tennessee (1-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)This might be my favorite game of Week 7: We have the Titans old coach (Mike Vrabel) going up against the Titans' interim coach (Mike McCoy) because the guy who was hired to replace Vrabel (Brian Callahan) only lasted 23 games before being fired on Monday. Maybe the Titans should have just kept Vrabel.
I'm not sure what the biggest loss is in Titans' history, but I have to think that Vrabel is going to want to top it when he makes his return to Tennessee in this game. Vrabel spent six years as the coach of the Titans and although he never had a franchise quarterback, he still managed to lead them to the playoffs four times and that includes a 2021 season when the Titans finished with the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.
I'm not sure if the entire AFC had a post-COVID hangover or what, but Vrabel's Titans got the top seed over the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, the Bills with Josh Allen and the Bengals with Joe Burrow. With Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback, Vrabel coached the Titans to the TOP SEED IN THE AFC (I can't emphasize this enough). Honestly, the NFL should have invented a coach of the millennium award on the spot in 2021 and given it him that year.
Two years later, the Titans decided to fire him and the organization has been falling apart ever since. Last year, they went 4-13 in their first season without Vrabel, and this year, things aren't going much better. They have the worst offense in the NFL: The Titans rank dead last in yards per game (232.3) and second-to-last in points per game (13.8).
The defense has been hanging on by a thread, but when you're stuck on the field for nearly 33 minutes ever game, it's hard to be good. On the other hand, Vrabel is building a powerhouse in New England and the foundation of that house is Drake Maye. He's been one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL this year and he's only getting better every week.
Remember that list that Justin Fields was on in my Panthers-Jets pick? Well this is the opposite of that. These are names that everyone has heard of. Being on this list is impressive.
I think Maye is going t have a big game and the Patriots are going to roll. And just for the record, I went ahead and looked up and the worst loss in Titans' history, and fittingly, it actually against the Patriots: New England beat them 59-0 back in 2009.
I do like the Patriots in this game, but not by 59 points.
PICK: Patriots 34-13 over Titans | Patriots -7
Indianapolis (5-1) at L.A. Chargers (4-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)For the second time in three weeks, the Colts are headed out to southern California. If you're scoring at home, the Colts are 0-1 when playing in Los Angeles this year and 5-0 when playing anywhere else. The Colts lost to the Rams back in Week 4, but that only happened because Adonai Mitchell forgot the rules of football.
If the Colts are going to win this game, they need to do three things:
1. Don't fumble the ball out of the back of the end zone
2. Make sure everyone makes it safely through pregame warm-ups (For most teams, this isn't an issue, but for the Colts, it apparently is).
3. Don't let Justin Herbert throw for 600 yards.
The Colts have been the most surprising team in the NFL this year, but if they have one weakness, it's their ability to stop the pass. In Week 6, Jacoby Brissett, who had not started a game in over a year, went out and threw for 320 yards on the Colts. It was Brissett's first 300-yard passing game since November 2022. If Brissett can top 300 passing yards on the Colts, then anyone can.
Of course, even if Justin Herbert does go off, the Colts have an offense that can keep up in a shootout and I'm fully expecting a shootout. I'm 6-0 picking Colts games this year and I'm putting it all on the line by taking Indiana Jones in his return to L.A.
If the Colts lose, I will be taking them off my "good" list and replacing them with the Chargers.
PICK: Colts 34-27 over Chargers | Colts +1.5 |
NFL Week 7 picks: All the rest
Bears 24-16 over SaintsBrowns 20-17 over Dolphins
Chiefs 31-20 over Raiders
Eagles 23-16 over Vikings
Broncos 19-16 over Giants
Commanders 38-31 over Cowboys
Packers 27-17 over Cardinals
Falcons 24-20 over 49ers
Lions 30-23 over Buccaneers
Seahawks 27-23 over Texans
BYES: Ravens, Bills
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Steelers would score exactly 23 points and beat the Browns and guess what happened? The Steelers scored exactly 23 points and beat the Browns. If I've learned anything from watching the NFL for all these years, it's that if the Browns are playing in Pittsburgh, they are guaranteed to lose. As a matter of fact, the Browns have now lost 22 straight regular-season games in Pittsburgh: They haven't gone on the road to beat the Steelers since 2003. That's right, the last time the Browns won in Pittsburgh, the iPhone didn't exist, YouTube hadn't been invented yet and people were still printing out directions on MapQuest. I miss MapQuest.Worst pick: If there's one rule you should always follow when making NFL picks, it's this: Never pick the against the Chiefs in a home primetime game if they're coming off a loss. I broke that rule in Week 6 and I paid dearly for it. After the Chiefs lost to the Jaguars in Week 5, I assumed it was all over for the them. I thought the Lions would go into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night and drive a stake through the heart of Kansas City's dynasty with a win. I thought Patrick Mahomes would retire and that we would never hear from him again, but I was wrong. Instead, the Chiefs won so handily that I might have now convinced myself that they're the best team in the AFC. I'm going to go ahead and add them to my "Good" list.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got six full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year.
Teams I'm 6-0 picking this year (Straight up): Colts
Teams I'm 5-1 picking this year (Straight up): Jets, Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers (4-1), Texans (4-1)
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 6: 9-6SU overall: 58-34-1
Against the spread in Week 6: 6-9
ATS overall: 41-52
2025 NFL
Week 7
Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down
Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.
Week 7
Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down
Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.
Thursday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads this week:
— Baylor @ TCU (-4)
— Ole Miss @ Georgia (-6)
— Texas A&M (-8) @ Arkansas
— Utah (-2) @ BYU
— USC @ Notre Dame (-9)
— Tennessee @ Alabama (-8)
Quote of the Day
“I’ve got to look at myself as the leader protecting the team. I don’t feel like I did that to the best of my abilities. I felt like I let the emotions of the game get to me after the game. And that’s something that I can learn from as a leader on this team and what happens in-house should be protected and none of that should have gotten out.”
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert play his college football?
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.
*****************************************
Vladimir Guerrero was 4-for-4 with a home run.
Toronto hit five homers; they had 18 hits overall.
Road team has won all three series games; Seattle leads, 2-1
Game 4 is Thursday in Seattle.
— Jacksonville State 38, Delaware 25
Cam Cook ran ball for 117 yards, three TD’s.
Gamecocks led 20-6 at halftime.
Delaware threw ball for 422 yards, but was minus-2 in turnovers.
— Texas-El Paso 35, Sam Houston State 17
Skyler Locklear threw for 236 yards, 2 TDs; ran ball for 48 yards, 2 more TD’s
Miners led 14-10 at halftime.
UTEP ran ball 34 times for 175 yards (5.1 yards/carry)
— NHL’s New York Rangers are first NHL team ever to get shut out in their first three home games of a season.
— Famous birthdays, October 16th:
Mel Counts, 84
Timothy Robbins, 67
Kevin McReynolds, 66
Adrian Murrell, 55
Kordell Stewart, 53
Bryce Harper, 33
John Wolford, 30
Steve Avila, 26
Noelvi Marte, 24
— When Gonzaga visits San Francisco this year, the game will be at the Chase Center, home of the Golden State Warriors, for the third year in a row. Gonzaga draws fans, and bigger arena makes USF a lot more money than playing in their campus gym would.
— In the history of the baseball playoffs, there have been 25 teams who hit two 3-run homers in the same game (or a 3-run and grand slam); all 25 of those teams won.
— Russell Westbrook signed on with the Sacramento Kings; this will be his 18th year in the NBA, the Kings are his 7th NBA team:
2008-19- Oklahoma City
2019-20- Houston
2020-21- Washington
2021-23- Lakers
2023-24- Clippers
2024-25- Nuggets
2025-26- Kings
In his career, Westbrook has earned $348,234,946 in salary.
— Some NBA over/under win totals for the coming season:
Thunder 62.5
Cavaliers 56.5
Nuggets 53.5
Rockets 52.5
Celtics 40.5
Bulls 32.5
Wizards 21.5
Jazz 18.5
— Angels/Orioles seem to be competing to hire Albert Pujols as their next manager; Orioles went 60-59 this season under interim manager Tony Mansolino, after they fired Brandon Hyde.
Last year, Pujols won a championship with Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League; it was the first time he had managed. He is supposed to manage the Dominican Republic in next spring’s World Baseball Classic.
— Sacramento Kings signed Keegan Murray to a five-year, $140M rookie contract extension that will keep him in Sacramento through the 2030-31 season.
College football spreads this week:
— Baylor @ TCU (-4)
— Ole Miss @ Georgia (-6)
— Texas A&M (-8) @ Arkansas
— Utah (-2) @ BYU
— USC @ Notre Dame (-9)
— Tennessee @ Alabama (-8)
Quote of the Day
“I’ve got to look at myself as the leader protecting the team. I don’t feel like I did that to the best of my abilities. I felt like I let the emotions of the game get to me after the game. And that’s something that I can learn from as a leader on this team and what happens in-house should be protected and none of that should have gotten out.”
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Thursday’s quiz
Where did Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert play his college football?
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).
Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.
*****************************************
Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….
— Blue Jays 13, Mariners 4Vladimir Guerrero was 4-for-4 with a home run.
Toronto hit five homers; they had 18 hits overall.
Road team has won all three series games; Seattle leads, 2-1
Game 4 is Thursday in Seattle.
— Jacksonville State 38, Delaware 25
Cam Cook ran ball for 117 yards, three TD’s.
Gamecocks led 20-6 at halftime.
Delaware threw ball for 422 yards, but was minus-2 in turnovers.
— Texas-El Paso 35, Sam Houston State 17
Skyler Locklear threw for 236 yards, 2 TDs; ran ball for 48 yards, 2 more TD’s
Miners led 14-10 at halftime.
UTEP ran ball 34 times for 175 yards (5.1 yards/carry)
— NHL’s New York Rangers are first NHL team ever to get shut out in their first three home games of a season.
— Famous birthdays, October 16th:
Mel Counts, 84
Timothy Robbins, 67
Kevin McReynolds, 66
Adrian Murrell, 55
Kordell Stewart, 53
Bryce Harper, 33
John Wolford, 30
Steve Avila, 26
Noelvi Marte, 24
— When Gonzaga visits San Francisco this year, the game will be at the Chase Center, home of the Golden State Warriors, for the third year in a row. Gonzaga draws fans, and bigger arena makes USF a lot more money than playing in their campus gym would.
— In the history of the baseball playoffs, there have been 25 teams who hit two 3-run homers in the same game (or a 3-run and grand slam); all 25 of those teams won.
— Russell Westbrook signed on with the Sacramento Kings; this will be his 18th year in the NBA, the Kings are his 7th NBA team:
2008-19- Oklahoma City
2019-20- Houston
2020-21- Washington
2021-23- Lakers
2023-24- Clippers
2024-25- Nuggets
2025-26- Kings
In his career, Westbrook has earned $348,234,946 in salary.
— Some NBA over/under win totals for the coming season:
Thunder 62.5
Cavaliers 56.5
Nuggets 53.5
Rockets 52.5
Celtics 40.5
Bulls 32.5
Wizards 21.5
Jazz 18.5
— Angels/Orioles seem to be competing to hire Albert Pujols as their next manager; Orioles went 60-59 this season under interim manager Tony Mansolino, after they fired Brandon Hyde.
Last year, Pujols won a championship with Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League; it was the first time he had managed. He is supposed to manage the Dominican Republic in next spring’s World Baseball Classic.
— Sacramento Kings signed Keegan Murray to a five-year, $140M rookie contract extension that will keep him in Sacramento through the 2030-31 season.
NFL
Weather Report
Thursday, October 16
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down
Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.
Pittsburgh won four of last five series games.
Underdogs covered five of last six meetings.
Steelers won/covered their last three visits to Cincinnati.
Weather Report
Thursday, October 16
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.
Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down
Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.
Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.
Pittsburgh won four of last five series games.
Underdogs covered five of last six meetings.
Steelers won/covered their last three visits to Cincinnati.
CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !
10/16/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS........................17 - 16 -- 0.........................51.51%................... - 3.00
10/16/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
TOTALS........................17 - 16 -- 0.........................51.51%................... - 3.00
Friday’s 6-pack:
— Bengals 33, Steelers 31- Bengals kicked a 36-yard FG with 0:07 left.
— Dodgers 3, Brewers 1- Milwaukee has scored 3 runs in series; they trail, 3-0.
— Blue Jays 8, Mariners 2- SS Gimenez had 4 RBI; series is 2-2.
— East Carolina 41, Tulsa 27- Houser passed for 300 yards, 2 TD’s.
— Milwaukee Bucks signed AJ Green to a 4-year, $45M deal.
— Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year, $93M deal to stay with the Hoosiers.
Quote of the Day
“I want to help 25 to 30 more families. The only way you do that is you’re transformational as a coach. You’re not transactional. If I become transactional — I’m going to pay you this to do this and that — then I won’t do this anymore. I don’t need to.”
Arkansas hoop coach John Calipari
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; who was their manager?
Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).
***************************************
— This will sound weird, but Sacramento State is going to be fascinating to follow this year; the Hornets haven’t had a winning season in Big Sky games since 2015, they’re on their fifth head coach in six years, but they’re going to be fun to watch this season.
The new coach is Mike Bibby, who played 14 years in the NBA, scoring 14.7 ppg; one of his new players is 6-8 F Shaqir O’Neal, whose father is Shaquille O’Neal.
Shaquille O’Neal is the new general manager for Sacramento State, which means we’re going to be seeing some Big Sky games on TV this season. Shaq is good at generating publicity.
Mikey Williams is a Hornet now; he was a big prospect a couple years ago, ran into some issues off the court, but he’s in Sacramento now, and is a key to Sacramento State’s season.
— Next year will be a dizzying year, with more teams changing leagues. There are a few teams changing leagues this year, but not that many.
Grand Canyon moves from the WAC to the Mountain West; Antelopes won 103 games the last four years, have been in four of last five NCAA Tournaments. Last year, Grand Canyon had the #29 eFG% in the country; they got 24% of their points on the foul line (#9 in country). Will they still get as many calls in their new, tougher league?
WAC was the #15 league last year; Mountain West was #6.
— Seattle is also bolting the WAC, which only has seven teams left; Redhawks are moving to the WCC, which won’t look the same at this time next year, with Gonzaga bolting to the Mountain West.
Seattle was 23-14 two years ago, but 14-18 last year; they were a terrible shooting team last year (#334 eFG%). Last four years, Redhawks were 44-28 in the WAC and they’ve got three starters back, but they need to make more shots.
WAC was the #15 league last year; WCC was #7 league.
— UMass bolted from the Atlantic 15 to the MAC, a huge help to their basketball program; MAC was the #23 league LY, A-15 was the #8 league— the move was football-based, but it should make life simpler on the hardwood.
UMass is 47-47 in three years under Frank Martin, was 24-30 in A-15 games. Minutemen have not been in the NCAA’s since 2014- they’ve brought in 10 new players after last year’s 12-20 season, when they shot 28% on the arc, 2nd-worst in the country.
— Two teams bolted to Conference USA, for football reasons…….
Delaware was in the NCAA’s in 2022, going 22-13, but they went 23-31 in CAA games since then.
Blue Hens were 16-20 LY, 5-13 in CAA, but they won four games in the CAA tourney and lost in the final, 76-72 to NC-Wilmington, playing for the fifth night in a row.
Delaware was #324 in defensive efficiency LY; CAA was #20 league last year, C-USA was #9, so this is a step up for the Blue Hens.
— Missouri State bolts to C-USA from the Missouri Valley, the #10 league; Bears were 9-23/2-19 last year, a dismal team that turned the ball over 20.7% of the time (#346).
Missouri State has had some good teams recently, but they haven’t been to the NCAA’s since Steve Alford led them there, in 1999. They’ve had seven 20-win seasons since then, but haven’t made it back to March Madness.
— Famous birthdays, October 17
Michael McKean, 78
Mike Bratz, 70
Dan Pasqua, 64
Jay Humphries, 63
Danny Ferry, 59
John Mabry, 55
Myles Straw, 31
— SEC had 14 of its 16 teams in the NCAA’s last year, which seems excessive; Florida was the first SEC team to win a national title since Kentucky in 2012.
Texas/Oklahoma both went 6-12 in SEC games, tied for 13th; if you finish tied for 13th in your league, you shouldn’t make the NCAA’s.
— Kentucky’s NIL budget/payroll is $22M this season; consensus is that nationally, top 10 teams have an average payroll of $10M or so. High expectations for coach Mark Pope.
Wildcats were 24-12 LY, making their first Sweet 16 since 2019; teams shot 53.9% inside the arc vs Kentucky (#295). Hopefully they spent some of that $22M on big guys who can defend.
— Auburn was 32-6, 15-3 in SEC, made the Final Four for the second time in seven years under Bruce Pearl, but last month, Pearl abruptly quit, so his son Steven could take his place. Bruce Pearl is going into the TV studio this season.
Auburn will play six top 40 teams before Christmas, as they prepare for the rigors on of SEC play, which worked for them LY, when they played the #19 non-conference schedule.
— Last five years, the ACC ranked #5-5-7-5-5 nationally, a downturn from 2014-19, when the ACC was a top 3 league every year. Only four ACC teams made the NCAA’s LY, but couple of new coaches figure to re-vitalize their programs.
Will Wade went 58-11 at McNeese State, made the NCAA’s five of six years before that at LSU, VCU. In the NIL era, Wade seems like a good man for the job.
Ryan Odom is the new coach at Virginia; his teams at VCU/Utah State were 78-30 the last three years. In 2018, he coached #16-seed UMBC to the first #16-seed over #1-seed upset in, when his Retrievers upset………Virginia.
— Four of the top 11 teams in the preseason top 25 are from the Big 18, a league that hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State in 2000.
— BYU signed AJ Dybantsa, the best recruit in the country; Cougars also bring back last year’s leading scorer, Richie Saunders- they’ve added four guards in the transfer portal.
Last year, BYU had the #7 eFG% in the country; 47.6% of their shots were 3’s- they made 36.8% of those. Cougars went 26-10, winning their first NCAA Tournament game since 2011.
— Last five years, Cal-Irvine went 68-23 in Big West games, but was 4-5 in their conference tournament- they surprisingly haven’t been to the NCAA’s since 2019.
Last year, Anteaters were 32-7; they lost the NIT final in overtime. This year, they get G Derin Saran back; he went to Stanford LY, but it didn’t work out well, so he is back in Irvine, where hopefully the Anteaters will fare better in the conference tournament.
— Bengals 33, Steelers 31- Bengals kicked a 36-yard FG with 0:07 left.
— Dodgers 3, Brewers 1- Milwaukee has scored 3 runs in series; they trail, 3-0.
— Blue Jays 8, Mariners 2- SS Gimenez had 4 RBI; series is 2-2.
— East Carolina 41, Tulsa 27- Houser passed for 300 yards, 2 TD’s.
— Milwaukee Bucks signed AJ Green to a 4-year, $45M deal.
— Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year, $93M deal to stay with the Hoosiers.
Quote of the Day
“I want to help 25 to 30 more families. The only way you do that is you’re transformational as a coach. You’re not transactional. If I become transactional — I’m going to pay you this to do this and that — then I won’t do this anymore. I don’t need to.”
Arkansas hoop coach John Calipari
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; who was their manager?
Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.
Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).
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Friday’s Den: Getting ready for college basketball…….
Things to think about, with college/minor league basketball around the corner…….— This will sound weird, but Sacramento State is going to be fascinating to follow this year; the Hornets haven’t had a winning season in Big Sky games since 2015, they’re on their fifth head coach in six years, but they’re going to be fun to watch this season.
The new coach is Mike Bibby, who played 14 years in the NBA, scoring 14.7 ppg; one of his new players is 6-8 F Shaqir O’Neal, whose father is Shaquille O’Neal.
Shaquille O’Neal is the new general manager for Sacramento State, which means we’re going to be seeing some Big Sky games on TV this season. Shaq is good at generating publicity.
Mikey Williams is a Hornet now; he was a big prospect a couple years ago, ran into some issues off the court, but he’s in Sacramento now, and is a key to Sacramento State’s season.
— Next year will be a dizzying year, with more teams changing leagues. There are a few teams changing leagues this year, but not that many.
Grand Canyon moves from the WAC to the Mountain West; Antelopes won 103 games the last four years, have been in four of last five NCAA Tournaments. Last year, Grand Canyon had the #29 eFG% in the country; they got 24% of their points on the foul line (#9 in country). Will they still get as many calls in their new, tougher league?
WAC was the #15 league last year; Mountain West was #6.
— Seattle is also bolting the WAC, which only has seven teams left; Redhawks are moving to the WCC, which won’t look the same at this time next year, with Gonzaga bolting to the Mountain West.
Seattle was 23-14 two years ago, but 14-18 last year; they were a terrible shooting team last year (#334 eFG%). Last four years, Redhawks were 44-28 in the WAC and they’ve got three starters back, but they need to make more shots.
WAC was the #15 league last year; WCC was #7 league.
— UMass bolted from the Atlantic 15 to the MAC, a huge help to their basketball program; MAC was the #23 league LY, A-15 was the #8 league— the move was football-based, but it should make life simpler on the hardwood.
UMass is 47-47 in three years under Frank Martin, was 24-30 in A-15 games. Minutemen have not been in the NCAA’s since 2014- they’ve brought in 10 new players after last year’s 12-20 season, when they shot 28% on the arc, 2nd-worst in the country.
— Two teams bolted to Conference USA, for football reasons…….
Delaware was in the NCAA’s in 2022, going 22-13, but they went 23-31 in CAA games since then.
Blue Hens were 16-20 LY, 5-13 in CAA, but they won four games in the CAA tourney and lost in the final, 76-72 to NC-Wilmington, playing for the fifth night in a row.
Delaware was #324 in defensive efficiency LY; CAA was #20 league last year, C-USA was #9, so this is a step up for the Blue Hens.
— Missouri State bolts to C-USA from the Missouri Valley, the #10 league; Bears were 9-23/2-19 last year, a dismal team that turned the ball over 20.7% of the time (#346).
Missouri State has had some good teams recently, but they haven’t been to the NCAA’s since Steve Alford led them there, in 1999. They’ve had seven 20-win seasons since then, but haven’t made it back to March Madness.
— Famous birthdays, October 17
Michael McKean, 78
Mike Bratz, 70
Dan Pasqua, 64
Jay Humphries, 63
Danny Ferry, 59
John Mabry, 55
Myles Straw, 31
— SEC had 14 of its 16 teams in the NCAA’s last year, which seems excessive; Florida was the first SEC team to win a national title since Kentucky in 2012.
Texas/Oklahoma both went 6-12 in SEC games, tied for 13th; if you finish tied for 13th in your league, you shouldn’t make the NCAA’s.
— Kentucky’s NIL budget/payroll is $22M this season; consensus is that nationally, top 10 teams have an average payroll of $10M or so. High expectations for coach Mark Pope.
Wildcats were 24-12 LY, making their first Sweet 16 since 2019; teams shot 53.9% inside the arc vs Kentucky (#295). Hopefully they spent some of that $22M on big guys who can defend.
— Auburn was 32-6, 15-3 in SEC, made the Final Four for the second time in seven years under Bruce Pearl, but last month, Pearl abruptly quit, so his son Steven could take his place. Bruce Pearl is going into the TV studio this season.
Auburn will play six top 40 teams before Christmas, as they prepare for the rigors on of SEC play, which worked for them LY, when they played the #19 non-conference schedule.
— Last five years, the ACC ranked #5-5-7-5-5 nationally, a downturn from 2014-19, when the ACC was a top 3 league every year. Only four ACC teams made the NCAA’s LY, but couple of new coaches figure to re-vitalize their programs.
Will Wade went 58-11 at McNeese State, made the NCAA’s five of six years before that at LSU, VCU. In the NIL era, Wade seems like a good man for the job.
Ryan Odom is the new coach at Virginia; his teams at VCU/Utah State were 78-30 the last three years. In 2018, he coached #16-seed UMBC to the first #16-seed over #1-seed upset in, when his Retrievers upset………Virginia.
— Four of the top 11 teams in the preseason top 25 are from the Big 18, a league that hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State in 2000.
— BYU signed AJ Dybantsa, the best recruit in the country; Cougars also bring back last year’s leading scorer, Richie Saunders- they’ve added four guards in the transfer portal.
Last year, BYU had the #7 eFG% in the country; 47.6% of their shots were 3’s- they made 36.8% of those. Cougars went 26-10, winning their first NCAA Tournament game since 2011.
— Last five years, Cal-Irvine went 68-23 in Big West games, but was 4-5 in their conference tournament- they surprisingly haven’t been to the NCAA’s since 2019.
Last year, Anteaters were 32-7; they lost the NIT final in overtime. This year, they get G Derin Saran back; he went to Stanford LY, but it didn’t work out well, so he is back in Irvine, where hopefully the Anteaters will fare better in the conference tournament.
Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six highest-paid major leaguers in 1985, 40 years ago:
$2,130,000— Mike Schmidt, Phil
$2,090,000— Jim Rice, Bos
$1,950,000— George Foster, Mets
$1,745,000— Dave Winfield, NYY
$1,728,000— Gary Carter, Mets
$1,600,000— Dale Murphy, Atl
Quote of the Day
“We still have home-field advantage. All we can do is enjoy the flight back to Toronto, enjoy our beds at our homes and our families, and we’re going to get after it on Sunday. … We’ll get after it on Sunday. We’ll be ready to play.”
Blue Jays manager John Schneider
Saturday’s quiz
Which bowl game is played in El Paso, TX every December?
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.
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Eugenio Suarez hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th
Cal Raleigh also homered in 8th to tie game, 2-2.
Mariners took their starting P out after only 56 PT
Seattle leads series, 3-2; Game 6 is in Toronto Sunday.
— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
Ohtani threw six shutout IP, also hit three home runs.
Milwaukee had five hits, was 0-8 with RISP.
Dodgers sweep Milwaukee 4-0; Brewers scored one run in every game.
— Bengals 33, Steelers 31
Bengals drove 52 yards, kicked 36-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win.
Flacco threw for 342 yards, three TD’s
WR Chase had 23 targets; he caught 16 passes for 161 yards.
Bengals were 7-14 on third down, Pittsburgh 7-10.
Bengals’ first two drives: 13 plays, 53 yards, two punts.
Bengals rest of game: 63 plays, 416 yards, 33 points.
Steelers led 10-0 early in second quarter.
Pittsburgh has allowed 369+ yards in five of six games.
— Louisville 24, Miami 21
Louisville had four INT’s, was +3 in turnovers.
Louisville led 14-10 at halftime.
Miami ran the ball 24 times for only 63 yards.
Cardinals were a 10.5-point underdog.
— Minnesota 24, Nebraska 6
Minnesota outscored Nebraska 17-0 in second half.
Gophers sacked Nebraska’s QB nine times.
Gophers outgained the Cornhuskers, 339-213.
Both teams are 5-2.
— Utah State 30, San Jose State 25
Utah State kicked 44-yard FG with 1:58 left for the win.
Aggies threw a 74-yard TD pass in 3rd quarter; they led 17-9.
San Jose State outgained the Agues, 534-461.
Spartans were 9-17 on third down, Utah State 5-15
— Famous birthdays, October 18th:
Mike Ditka, 86
George Hendrick, 76
Pam Dawber, 74
Alex Cora, 50
Yoenis Cespedes, 40
Zac Efron, 38
Osvaldo Bido, 30
Terance Mann, 29
— Most starting pitchers used, last two years:
31- White Sox, Marlins
27- Dodgers, Brewers
24- Angels, Mets, Giants
23- Braves, Red Sox
— Fewest starting pitchers used, last two years:
10- Mariners
12- Cardinals
14- Bronx, Nationals
16- Rockies, Royals, Phillies
— Dodgers-Brewers, Blue Jays-Mariners. This year’s Final Four
Only one player ever has played for all four of those teams: Henry Blanco, who played 16 years in the big leagues, for 11 different teams.
— Dolphins-Browns Sunday will have two lefty QB’s starting, first time that has happened in the NFL since 2006, an Atlanta-Tampa Bay game (Vick-Chris Simms)
By the way, this game could have winds as high as 60 MPH, with a 94% chance of rain.
— Since 2016, there have been 16 college football teams that started a season 0-6 ATS; those teams went 5-10-1 ATS in their 7th game. Penn State fits that bill this week.
Since 2020, there have been eight teams that started a season 6-0 ATS; those teams went 2-6 ATS in their 7th game. Memphis, Texas Tech fit the bill this week.
Six highest-paid major leaguers in 1985, 40 years ago:
$2,130,000— Mike Schmidt, Phil
$2,090,000— Jim Rice, Bos
$1,950,000— George Foster, Mets
$1,745,000— Dave Winfield, NYY
$1,728,000— Gary Carter, Mets
$1,600,000— Dale Murphy, Atl
Quote of the Day
“We still have home-field advantage. All we can do is enjoy the flight back to Toronto, enjoy our beds at our homes and our families, and we’re going to get after it on Sunday. … We’ll get after it on Sunday. We’ll be ready to play.”
Blue Jays manager John Schneider
Saturday’s quiz
Which bowl game is played in El Paso, TX every December?
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.
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Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday…….
— Mariners 6, Blue Jays 2Eugenio Suarez hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th
Cal Raleigh also homered in 8th to tie game, 2-2.
Mariners took their starting P out after only 56 PT
Seattle leads series, 3-2; Game 6 is in Toronto Sunday.
— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
Ohtani threw six shutout IP, also hit three home runs.
Milwaukee had five hits, was 0-8 with RISP.
Dodgers sweep Milwaukee 4-0; Brewers scored one run in every game.
— Bengals 33, Steelers 31
Bengals drove 52 yards, kicked 36-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win.
Flacco threw for 342 yards, three TD’s
WR Chase had 23 targets; he caught 16 passes for 161 yards.
Bengals were 7-14 on third down, Pittsburgh 7-10.
Bengals’ first two drives: 13 plays, 53 yards, two punts.
Bengals rest of game: 63 plays, 416 yards, 33 points.
Steelers led 10-0 early in second quarter.
Pittsburgh has allowed 369+ yards in five of six games.
— Louisville 24, Miami 21
Louisville had four INT’s, was +3 in turnovers.
Louisville led 14-10 at halftime.
Miami ran the ball 24 times for only 63 yards.
Cardinals were a 10.5-point underdog.
— Minnesota 24, Nebraska 6
Minnesota outscored Nebraska 17-0 in second half.
Gophers sacked Nebraska’s QB nine times.
Gophers outgained the Cornhuskers, 339-213.
Both teams are 5-2.
— Utah State 30, San Jose State 25
Utah State kicked 44-yard FG with 1:58 left for the win.
Aggies threw a 74-yard TD pass in 3rd quarter; they led 17-9.
San Jose State outgained the Agues, 534-461.
Spartans were 9-17 on third down, Utah State 5-15
— Famous birthdays, October 18th:
Mike Ditka, 86
George Hendrick, 76
Pam Dawber, 74
Alex Cora, 50
Yoenis Cespedes, 40
Zac Efron, 38
Osvaldo Bido, 30
Terance Mann, 29
— Most starting pitchers used, last two years:
31- White Sox, Marlins
27- Dodgers, Brewers
24- Angels, Mets, Giants
23- Braves, Red Sox
— Fewest starting pitchers used, last two years:
10- Mariners
12- Cardinals
14- Bronx, Nationals
16- Rockies, Royals, Phillies
— Dodgers-Brewers, Blue Jays-Mariners. This year’s Final Four
Only one player ever has played for all four of those teams: Henry Blanco, who played 16 years in the big leagues, for 11 different teams.
— Dolphins-Browns Sunday will have two lefty QB’s starting, first time that has happened in the NFL since 2006, an Atlanta-Tampa Bay game (Vick-Chris Simms)
By the way, this game could have winds as high as 60 MPH, with a 94% chance of rain.
— Since 2016, there have been 16 college football teams that started a season 0-6 ATS; those teams went 5-10-1 ATS in their 7th game. Penn State fits that bill this week.
Since 2020, there have been eight teams that started a season 6-0 ATS; those teams went 2-6 ATS in their 7th game. Memphis, Texas Tech fit the bill this week.
Top NFL Things To Know
First Fire
Titans Can CallahanThe Titans fired Brian Callahan on Monday, and Tennessee now faces the Patriots this week.
An upset from the Titans against the Patriots as above a 5-point underdog would be the biggest upset over the last decade for a new in-season head coach.
Here is the real impact of the in-season coaching change. Last decade, before the firing, those 23 teams had won 27.9% of games SU and 36.2% of games ATS. After the firing, they went 33.1% SU and 48.3% ATS, a decent improvement overall.
Public Humiliation
Rough StartAccording to Action Network betting data, teams with 60%+ of tickets this season are 15-36 ATS through six weeks. Through six games, that is the worst ATS mark for those public bettors in the 23-year history of our database.
Week 6: 2-6 ATS
Week 5: 3-6 ATS
Week 4: 6-7 ATS
Week 3: 2-4 ATS
Week 2: 1-3 ATS
Week 1: 1-0 ATS
A $100 bettor would be down $2,221 taking 60%+ ticket teams ATS this year. The next closest season through six games was 2022 at 15-27 ATS (-$1,322).
Teams with 70%+ tickets this season are 4-16 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when those teams are at home.
Fight for Favorite
Who Wants It?The Jets opened as favorites at 0-6 SU. It would have been the first 0-6 SU or worse favorite since the 2013 Giants. But not anymore.
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four whole years ago – they’ve lost 10 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. That is the longest losing streak for any team as a favorite since the 1970 merger.
Carolina's last cover as a favorite: 9/23/21 at HOU (w/ Sam Darnold)
More on Carolina closing as a favorite:
Night Dogs
Outright CashUnderdogs are now 12-9-1 SU and 15-7 ATS in night games this season — the first time through six games underdogs are over .500 SU in primetime since 2002.
Great Expectations
The Other Mahomes SpotAs a favorite of above a TD (-7.5 or more) since 2020, Patrick Mahomes is 36-2 SU and 13-24-1 ATS – his 36-2 SU mark has profited a bettor $495, most of 48 QBs – his 13-24-1 ATS mark has lost a bettor $1,207, worst of 48 QBs.
Mahomes’ two SU losses as above a TD favorite since 2020 have both come against the Raiders. He is 30-0 SU in this spot vs. all other teams. Since 2022, Mahomes is 4-12-1 ATS vs. his own division.
The Other Favorite
Cover Cleveland?The Browns as betting favorites hasn’t happened a lot lately. Since that 2024 calendar flip, Cleveland is 0-5 SU when closing as the betting favorite with three different QBs (Flacco, Watson, Winston), and now their 4th with Dillon Gabriel, a rookie.
The Browns haven't scored 18 points or more in 11 consecutive games, the 5th-longest streak for any team since 1990. The last longer streak came from the 2000-01 Cardinals, who did it in 13 straight games.
New Highs
Biggest 2025 TotalThe Cowboys' defense has created a monster. If the O/U in Commanders/Cowboys closes at 54 or higher, it will be the highest total of the 2025 season so far.
If it closes above 53, it will be the highest over/under in a WAS/DAL series since 1983, when it closed at 53.5. No Dallas/Washington total has closed at 54 or higher since at least 1980.
At 55 or higher, it will be the highest Cowboys over/under since 2021 against the Chiefs, which closed at 56. Since 2019, the under is 24-11 in games that close with a total of 55 or more.
Emptying The Notebook
Best of the BestSome of my favorite notes of the week:
• Daniel Jones is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season, best mark in the NFL.
• Jaxson Dart is 2-1 SU in three starts. A $100 bettor would be up $450 taking Dart, best of any QB this season.
• The Bears are 5-0 to their team total over this season, the only undefeated team left in the NFL.
• Teams who are trailing at the half are 53-34 against the 2nd half spread this season. They were 10-4 2H ATS last week, 19-8 2H ATS the last two weeks and 56.3% 2H ATS since 2022.
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Atlanta is 16-2 to the Under in their last 18 prime time games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA)
* New England is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%) when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN)
* Jacksonville is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS (27.1%) versus NFC foes since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)
Pre-bye week system #2: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 36-15-2 since 2013, 70.6%, +19.5 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)
Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since ‘21, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
* Detroit is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
* Won/lost records have mattered on Monday Night Football, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
#1 Underpriced underdog according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NY JETS +1.5 vs Carolina (projections have line at NYJ -4.1)
(451) LA RAMS (4-2) vs. (452) JACKSONVILLE (4-2)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-65 SU and 37-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 32-42 ATS (43.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)
* JACKSONVILLE is on 16-3 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE is 42-33 Under the total (56%) since 2021
* LA RAMS are 54-43 Under the total (55.7%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-JAX (o/u at 44.5)
(453) LAS VEGAS (2-4) at (454) KANSAS CITY (3-3)
* LAS VEGAS is 7-6 SU and 11-2 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 37-52 ATS (41.6%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC)
* KANSAS CITY is 20-11 SU but 6-23 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 34-2 SU but 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in his L36 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.7, Team average PF: 27.7
* KANSAS CITY is 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Trends Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-11.5 vs LVR)
* KANSAS CITY is 75-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 34-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* LAS VEGAS is 21-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)
(455) MIAMI (1-5) at (456) CLEVELAND (1-5)
* MIAMI is on a 34-19 SU and 33-19 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+2.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 34-45 ATS (43%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-8 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CLE (o/u at 40.5)
(457) NEW ENGLAND (4-2) at (458) TENNESSEE (1-5)
* NEW ENGLAND is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-33 SU and 9-31-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 34-50-1 ATS (40.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN)
(459) NEW ORLEANS (1-5) at (460) CHICAGO (3-2)
* NEW ORLEANS is 37-24 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* CHICAGO is 33-43 ATS (43.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at CHI)
(461) PHILADELPHIA (4-2) at (462) MINNESOTA (3-2)
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-19 SU and 8-23 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-28 ATS (33.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 19-25 ATS (43.2%) at home since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
* MINNESOTA is 61-47 Over the total (56.5%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 15-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-3 Under the total in the last 14 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-11 Under the total in his last 30 road games
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5)
(463) CAROLINA (3-3) at (464) NY JETS (0-6)
* CAROLINA is 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-1.5 at NYJ)
* NY JETS are 13-31 ATS (29.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-30 SU and 16-23-2 ATS (41%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.5
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1.5 vs CAR)
(465) INDIANAPOLIS (5-1) at (466) LA CHARGERS (4-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 33-14 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* LA CHARGERS are 65-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-11 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-4 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAC (o/u at 48.5)
* LA CHARGERS are 37-51-1 ATS (42%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs IND)
(467) NY GIANTS (2-4) at (468) DENVER (4-2)
* DENVER is 103-68 Under the total (60.2%) since 2015
* NY GIANTS are 59-30 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-10 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-DEN (o/u at 39.5)
* DENVER is 25-36 ATS (41%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 13-14 SU but 22-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DENVER (-7 vs NYG)
(469) WASHINGTON (3-3) at (470) DALLAS (2-3)
* WASHINGTON is 27-11 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-DAL (o/u at 54.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
* WASHINGTON is 21-34 ATS (38.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 17-32 ATS (34.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of WASHINGTON (-2.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 36-19 ATS (65.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29-1 SU and 17-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 3-12-1 SU and 5-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of DALLAS (+2.5 vs WAS)
(471) GREEN BAY (3-1) at (472) ARIZONA (2-4)
* GREEN BAY is 25-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 13-7 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 7-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-ARI (o/u at 44.5)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 20-14-1 SU but 13-22 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE ATS): GREEN BAY (-6.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 27-33 ATS (45%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 32-19 ATS (62.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+6.5 vs GB)
(473) ATLANTA (3-2) at (474) SAN FRANCISCO (4-2)
* ATLANTA is 20-5 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 45-29 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(475) TAMPA BAY (5-1) at (476) DETROIT (4-2)
* TAMPA BAY is on 27-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 15-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TB-DET (o/u at 52.5)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-12 SU and 5-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-17 SU but 19-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 15-8 SU and 19-5 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 19-11 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
(477) HOUSTON (2-3) at (478) SEATTLE (4-2)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 14-5 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-8 Under the total in the last 22 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
* HOUSTON is on a 17-56 SU and 26-46 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
* SEATTLE is 42-53-1 ATS (44.2%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 24-16-1 ATS (60%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 8-11 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 58-40-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 100.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 13-26 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 15-22-1 SU and 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 38, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2
.5 vs ATL)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 28-30 SU but 17-39-2 ATS (30.4%) in the last 58.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 22-21 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) surge since ’19.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
· Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-4 SU and ATS (71.4%) in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 11-20 SU and 9-22 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 16-2 to the Under in the last 18
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
Seattle 12-5 Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
Post-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-19 SU and 36-26-2 ATS since 1999, 58.1%, +7.4 Units, 11.9% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since 2021, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Houston Texans Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/20 at Seattle Seahawks
· Houston has gone 14-7 Under the total in their last 21 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
· The Texans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six post-bye week road games
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/19 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
· The Vikings are on a run of 8-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: NE-TEN(+7), MIA-CLE(-2.5), NYG(+7)-DEN)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 139-126 ATS (52.5%) in home games but just 122-146 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 23 games, going 23-123 SU and 59-83-4 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been best for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-67 SU but 68-52 ATS (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND
– Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-17 SU and 22-13-3 ATS (62.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 172 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 56-118 SU and 78-93-2 ATS (45.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND
* Atlanta is 16-2 to the Under in their last 18 prime time games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
* Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA)
* New England is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS (76.5%) when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN)
* Jacksonville is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS (27.1%) versus NFC foes since 2011
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)
Pre-bye week system #2: Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 36-15-2 since 2013, 70.6%, +19.5 Units, 38.2% ROI, Grade 70)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)
Post-bye week system #7: Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since ‘21, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
* Detroit is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
* Won/lost records have mattered on Monday Night Football, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
#1 Underpriced underdog according to the Makinen Bettors Ratings: NY JETS +1.5 vs Carolina (projections have line at NYJ -4.1)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:(451) LA RAMS (4-2) vs. (452) JACKSONVILLE (4-2)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 35-65 SU and 37-61 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
Trend Match (FADE): LA RAMS (-3 vs JAX)
* JACKSONVILLE is 10-50 SU and 16-43 ATS versus NFC foes since 2011
* JACKSONVILLE is 32-42 ATS (43.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3 vs LAR)
* JACKSONVILLE is on 16-3 Under the total surge when coming off a loss to an NFC foe
* JACKSONVILLE is 42-33 Under the total (56%) since 2021
* LA RAMS are 54-43 Under the total (55.7%) since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-JAX (o/u at 44.5)
(453) LAS VEGAS (2-4) at (454) KANSAS CITY (3-3)
* LAS VEGAS is 7-6 SU and 11-2 ATS when coming off a game allowing <=14 points since 2020
* LAS VEGAS is 25-17 ATS (59.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
* LAS VEGAS is 37-52 ATS (41.6%) in road/neutral games since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+11.5 at KC)
* KANSAS CITY is 20-11 SU but 6-23 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 34-2 SU but 12-23-1 ATS (34.3%) in his L36 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.7, Team average PF: 27.7
* KANSAS CITY is 10-19-1 ATS (34.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Trends Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-11.5 vs LVR)
* KANSAS CITY is 75-40 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 34-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
* LAS VEGAS is 21-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LVR-KC (o/u at 45.5)
(455) MIAMI (1-5) at (456) CLEVELAND (1-5)
* MIAMI is on a 34-19 SU and 33-19 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* MIAMI’s Mike McDaniel is on a 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
* MIAMI’s Tua Tagovailoa is 11-2 SU and 10-2-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of MIAMI (+2.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 34-45 ATS (43%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 19-32 ATS (37.3%) as a favorite since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 vs MIA)
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 17-8 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CLE (o/u at 40.5)
(457) NEW ENGLAND (4-2) at (458) TENNESSEE (1-5)
* NEW ENGLAND is 28-6 SU and 26-8 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
* TENNESSEE is on an 8-33 SU and 9-31-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 34-50-1 ATS (40.5%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7 at TEN)
(459) NEW ORLEANS (1-5) at (460) CHICAGO (3-2)
* NEW ORLEANS is 37-24 ATS (60.7%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* CHICAGO is 33-43 ATS (43.4%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at CHI)
(461) PHILADELPHIA (4-2) at (462) MINNESOTA (3-2)
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-19 SU and 8-23 ATS when coming off a divisional loss since 2012
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-28 ATS (33.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 19-25 ATS (43.2%) at home since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
* MINNESOTA is 61-47 Over the total (56.5%) since 2019
* MINNESOTA’s Kevin O’Connell is 15-7 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2022
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 11-3 Under the total in the last 14 games when coming off an outright loss
* PHILADELPHIA’s Jalen Hurts is 20-11 Under the total in his last 30 road games
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5)
(463) CAROLINA (3-3) at (464) NY JETS (0-6)
* CAROLINA is 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017
* CAROLINA is 16-33 ATS (32.7%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-1.5 at NYJ)
* NY JETS are 13-31 ATS (29.5%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* NY JETS’ Justin Fields is 11-30 SU and 16-23-2 ATS (41%) in Sunday games. The average line was +3.2, Team average PF: 19.5
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+1.5 vs CAR)
(465) INDIANAPOLIS (5-1) at (466) LA CHARGERS (4-2)
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 33-14 Under the total as an underdog since 2020
* LA CHARGERS are 65-33 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 27-11 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 16-4 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-LAC (o/u at 48.5)
* LA CHARGERS are 37-51-1 ATS (42%) at home since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (-1.5 vs IND)
(467) NY GIANTS (2-4) at (468) DENVER (4-2)
* DENVER is 103-68 Under the total (60.2%) since 2015
* NY GIANTS are 59-30 Under the total (66.3%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 23-10 Under the total surge as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): NYG-DEN (o/u at 39.5)
* DENVER is 25-36 ATS (41%) as a favorite since 2017
* DENVER is 13-14 SU but 22-5 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DENVER (-7 vs NYG)
(469) WASHINGTON (3-3) at (470) DALLAS (2-3)
* WASHINGTON is 27-11 Over the total when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2011
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-DAL (o/u at 54.5)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is on a 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss
* WASHINGTON is 21-34 ATS (38.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* WASHINGTON is 17-32 ATS (34.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADES of WASHINGTON (-2.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 36-19 ATS (65.5%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 22-29-1 SU and 17-35 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on a 3-12-1 SU and 5-11 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of DALLAS (+2.5 vs WAS)
(471) GREEN BAY (3-1) at (472) ARIZONA (2-4)
* GREEN BAY is 25-12 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 13-7 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
* ARIZONA’s Jonathan Gannon is on 7-3 Over the total streak vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-ARI (o/u at 44.5)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 20-14-1 SU but 13-22 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE ATS): GREEN BAY (-6.5 at ARI)
* ARIZONA is 27-33 ATS (45%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 32-19 ATS (62.7%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+6.5 vs GB)
(473) ATLANTA (3-2) at (474) SAN FRANCISCO (4-2)
* ATLANTA is 20-5 Under the total on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 45-29 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(475) TAMPA BAY (5-1) at (476) DETROIT (4-2)
* TAMPA BAY is on 27-9 Over the total surge as a single-digit road underdog
* DETROIT’s Dan Campbell is 15-7 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in TB-DET (o/u at 52.5)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-12 SU and 5-12 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-17 SU but 19-9 ATS as a road underdog since 2020
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET)
* DETROIT is 25-10-1 ATS (71.4%) at home since 2021
* DETROIT is 15-8 SU and 19-5 ATS when playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2019
* DETROIT is on a 19-11 SU and 21-8-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT is on an 11-0 SU and ATS streak coming off an outright loss
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
(477) HOUSTON (2-3) at (478) SEATTLE (4-2)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 14-5 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 14-8 Under the total in the last 22 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
* HOUSTON is on a 17-56 SU and 26-46 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
* SEATTLE is 42-53-1 ATS (44.2%) when coming off a SU win since 2015
* SEATTLE is 24-16-1 ATS (60%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 8-11 SU and 5-13-1 ATS in the last 19 starts vs. teams with losing records
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADES of SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 58-40-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 100.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 13-26 SU and 14-25 ATS (35.9%) in their last 39 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5 vs ATL)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 15-22-1 SU and 16-21-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 38, but those coming off a win are on a current 28-10 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-2
.5 vs ATL)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 28-30 SU but 17-39-2 ATS (30.4%) in the last 58.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 22-21 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) surge since ’19.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs TB)
· Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-4 SU and ATS (71.4%) in their last 14 tries.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 44-39 SU but just 31-50-2 ATS (38.3%) in the last 83 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET), SEATTLE (-3 vs HOU)
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Tampa Bay 11-20 SU and 9-22 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+5.5 at DET)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 16-2 to the Under in the last 18
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-SF (o/u at 47.5)
Seattle 12-5 Under in the last 17
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
Post-Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseasonPost-bye week system #3:
Play against home underdogs coming out of their bye week. (Record: 45-19 SU and 36-26-2 ATS since 1999, 58.1%, +7.4 Units, 11.9% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 40-19-1 since 2021, 67.8%, +19.1 Units, 32.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Houston Texans Post-Bye Week Game: MON 10/20 at Seattle Seahawks
· Houston has gone 14-7 Under the total in their last 21 post-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SEA (o/u at 41.5)
· The Texans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six post-bye week road games
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+3 at SEA)
Minnesota Vikings Post-Bye Week Game: 10/19 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
· For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are nearly as bad out of the bye, 5-10 SU and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
· The Vikings are on a run of 8-3 Over the total in post-bye week games at home
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIN (o/u at 43.5)
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Cam Ward (Tennessee), Dillon Gabriel (Cleveland), and Jaxson Dart (NY Giants).
(Games this week: NE-TEN(+7), MIA-CLE(-2.5), NYG(+7)-DEN)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 139-126 ATS (52.5%) in home games but just 122-146 ATS (45.5%) in road/neutral games.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2015, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 6.5 points or more have won just 23 games, going 23-123 SU and 59-83-4 ATS (41.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 – Rookie quarterbacks have been INCREDIBLE bets in the home favorite role over the last five seasons
Since the start of the 2020 season, rookie starting quarterbacks have taken care of business in the home favorite role, going 41-12 SU and 38-14-1 ATS (73.1%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been best for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 54-67 SU but 68-52 ATS (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND
– Since 2022, rookie QBs are 21-17 SU and 22-13-3 ATS (62.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 172 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 56-118 SU and 78-93-2 ATS (45.6%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, CLEVELAND
Sunday’s 9-pack:
Highest-paid players in the NBA this year:
$59,606,817— Steph Curry, GSt
$55,224,526— Joel Embiid, Phil
$55,224,526— Nikola Jokic, Den
$54,708,609— Kevin Durant, Hst
$54,126,450— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
$54,126,450— Luka Doncic, LAL
$54,126,450— Jimmy Butler, GSt
$54,126,450— Anthony Davis, Dal
$54,126,450— Jayson Tatum, Bos
Quote of the Day
“We wanted to play with fanatical effort, and the second thing was poise. The third thing was we talked about staying together, no matter what.”
UAB interim football coach Alex Mortensen, who led the Blazers to an upset win over Memphis Saturday. Alex is the son of the late Chris Mortensen, the great reporter on ESPN.
Sunday’s quiz
Who was QB for the Vikings, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?
Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso, TX every December.
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.
*******************************
Commodores are 6-1 for the first time since 1950.
Vandy ran ball 45 times for 239 yards (5.3 yards/carry)
Commodores snapped a 10-game losing skid vs LSU.
— Georgia 43, Ole Miss 35
QB Stockton threw for 289 yards, four TD’s.
Georgia outscored the Rebels 17-0 in fourth quarter.
Dawgs ran 80 plays for 510 yards, had 34 first downs.
— Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Sun Devils drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:34 left.
First loss of year for Tech, who played without starting QB Morton.
WR Tyson caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a TD for ASU.
— UCLA 20, Maryland 17
Bruins kicked a 23-yard FG with 0:02 left for the comeback win.
Maryland had tied the game on a TD with 0:40 left.
UCLA is 3-0 since they fired their coach after an 0-4 start.
— Missouri 23, Auburn 17 OT
Mizzou led 10-7 at halftime.
Auburn RB Cobb ran ball 19 times for 111 yards.
Auburn is 0-4 in SEC, scoring 17-10-10-17 points.
— Upsets of the Week:
UAB (+20.5) 31, Memphis 24
Coastal Carolina (+10.5) 45, Appalachian State 37
Louisville (+10.5) 24, Miami 21
Arizona State (+9.5) 26, Texas Tech 22
Florida International (+9.5) 25, Western Kentucky 6
Minnesota (+8.5) 24, Nebraska 6
Arkansas State (+8.5) 15, South Alabama 14
SMU (+5.5) 35, Clemson 24
— Indiana 38, Michigan State 13
Five highest-paid coaches in college football:
$13M/year- Kirby Smart, Georgia
$12.5M- Ryan Day, Ohio State
$11.6M- Curt Cignetti, Indiana
$11.5M- Lincoln Riley, USC
$11.3M- Dabo Swinney, Clemson
— UAB 31, Memphis 24
Blazers fired their coach this week, then pulled biggest upset of the day.
UAB had good balance; ran ball for 219 yards, threw it for 251.
Blazers covered 9-13 third down plays, 6-1 Memphis 5-11.
— Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18
Tech had a 95-yard fumble return for TD in first quarter.
Game was tied 10-10 after the third quarter.
Tech was outgained 441-376; they’re quietest 7-0 team in country.
— California 21, North Carolina 18
TE on North Carolina fumbled on 1-yard line with 3:48 left.
Tar Heels are 1-4 vs I-A teams; the win was over 1-6 Charlotte.
Cal barely won, despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Famous birthdays, October 19th:
John Lithgow, 80
Lynn Dickey, 76
Lionel Hollins, 72
David Palmer, 68
Brad Daugherty, 60
Keith Foulke, 53
Leonard Little, 51
Michael Young, 49
Rajai Davis, 45
JA Happ, 43
Anthony Santander, 31
Zack Gelof, 26
— Houston 31, Arizona 28
Houston kicked a 41-yard FG at the gun, improved to 6-1.
Cougars ran ball 45 times for 232 yards.
Arizona was first team to score TD Saturday; they were 50-1 to do that at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas.
— Marshall 40, Texas State 37 OT
Bobcats lost in overtime for the second week in a row.
Texas State QB Jackson threw for 44 yards, 2 TD’s in a losing cause.
Bobcats turned ball over three times, had 12 penalties for 80 yards.
— Tulane 24, Army 17
6-1 Green Wave scored two TD’s in last 1:54 for the comeback win.
Total yardage: Tulane 402, Army 358
Army ran ball 63 times for 233 yards.
— Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Vols QB Aguilar threw a 99-yard pick-6 on last play of first half.
If Tennessee had kicked FG there, they would’ve trailed 16-10 at the half.
Vols outgained Alabama 409-373, but had 10 penalties for 67 yards.
— Texas 16, Kentucky 13 OT
Longhorns led 7-0 at halftime.
Kentucky kicked a 45-yard FG with 0:09 left to force OT.
In OT, Wildcats went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, but failed.
Highest-paid players in the NBA this year:
$59,606,817— Steph Curry, GSt
$55,224,526— Joel Embiid, Phil
$55,224,526— Nikola Jokic, Den
$54,708,609— Kevin Durant, Hst
$54,126,450— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
$54,126,450— Luka Doncic, LAL
$54,126,450— Jimmy Butler, GSt
$54,126,450— Anthony Davis, Dal
$54,126,450— Jayson Tatum, Bos
Quote of the Day
“We wanted to play with fanatical effort, and the second thing was poise. The third thing was we talked about staying together, no matter what.”
UAB interim football coach Alex Mortensen, who led the Blazers to an upset win over Memphis Saturday. Alex is the son of the late Chris Mortensen, the great reporter on ESPN.
Sunday’s quiz
Who was QB for the Vikings, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?
Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso, TX every December.
Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.
*******************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……
— Vanderbilt 31, LSU 24Commodores are 6-1 for the first time since 1950.
Vandy ran ball 45 times for 239 yards (5.3 yards/carry)
Commodores snapped a 10-game losing skid vs LSU.
— Georgia 43, Ole Miss 35
QB Stockton threw for 289 yards, four TD’s.
Georgia outscored the Rebels 17-0 in fourth quarter.
Dawgs ran 80 plays for 510 yards, had 34 first downs.
— Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Sun Devils drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:34 left.
First loss of year for Tech, who played without starting QB Morton.
WR Tyson caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a TD for ASU.
— UCLA 20, Maryland 17
Bruins kicked a 23-yard FG with 0:02 left for the comeback win.
Maryland had tied the game on a TD with 0:40 left.
UCLA is 3-0 since they fired their coach after an 0-4 start.
— Missouri 23, Auburn 17 OT
Mizzou led 10-7 at halftime.
Auburn RB Cobb ran ball 19 times for 111 yards.
Auburn is 0-4 in SEC, scoring 17-10-10-17 points.
— Upsets of the Week:
UAB (+20.5) 31, Memphis 24
Coastal Carolina (+10.5) 45, Appalachian State 37
Louisville (+10.5) 24, Miami 21
Arizona State (+9.5) 26, Texas Tech 22
Florida International (+9.5) 25, Western Kentucky 6
Minnesota (+8.5) 24, Nebraska 6
Arkansas State (+8.5) 15, South Alabama 14
SMU (+5.5) 35, Clemson 24
— Indiana 38, Michigan State 13
Five highest-paid coaches in college football:
$13M/year- Kirby Smart, Georgia
$12.5M- Ryan Day, Ohio State
$11.6M- Curt Cignetti, Indiana
$11.5M- Lincoln Riley, USC
$11.3M- Dabo Swinney, Clemson
— UAB 31, Memphis 24
Blazers fired their coach this week, then pulled biggest upset of the day.
UAB had good balance; ran ball for 219 yards, threw it for 251.
Blazers covered 9-13 third down plays, 6-1 Memphis 5-11.
— Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18
Tech had a 95-yard fumble return for TD in first quarter.
Game was tied 10-10 after the third quarter.
Tech was outgained 441-376; they’re quietest 7-0 team in country.
— California 21, North Carolina 18
TE on North Carolina fumbled on 1-yard line with 3:48 left.
Tar Heels are 1-4 vs I-A teams; the win was over 1-6 Charlotte.
Cal barely won, despite being +3 in turnovers.
— Famous birthdays, October 19th:
John Lithgow, 80
Lynn Dickey, 76
Lionel Hollins, 72
David Palmer, 68
Brad Daugherty, 60
Keith Foulke, 53
Leonard Little, 51
Michael Young, 49
Rajai Davis, 45
JA Happ, 43
Anthony Santander, 31
Zack Gelof, 26
— Houston 31, Arizona 28
Houston kicked a 41-yard FG at the gun, improved to 6-1.
Cougars ran ball 45 times for 232 yards.
Arizona was first team to score TD Saturday; they were 50-1 to do that at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas.
— Marshall 40, Texas State 37 OT
Bobcats lost in overtime for the second week in a row.
Texas State QB Jackson threw for 44 yards, 2 TD’s in a losing cause.
Bobcats turned ball over three times, had 12 penalties for 80 yards.
— Tulane 24, Army 17
6-1 Green Wave scored two TD’s in last 1:54 for the comeback win.
Total yardage: Tulane 402, Army 358
Army ran ball 63 times for 233 yards.
— Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Vols QB Aguilar threw a 99-yard pick-6 on last play of first half.
If Tennessee had kicked FG there, they would’ve trailed 16-10 at the half.
Vols outgained Alabama 409-373, but had 10 penalties for 67 yards.
— Texas 16, Kentucky 13 OT
Longhorns led 7-0 at halftime.
Kentucky kicked a 45-yard FG with 0:09 left to force OT.
In OT, Wildcats went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, but failed.
NFL
Weather Report
Sunday, October 19
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Sunday’s games
Rams (–3.5) vs Jaguars (@ London)
Rams (4-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS vs AFC teams this season.
Last two weeks, Rams ran ball for only 78-74 yards.
QB Stafford is 43-27 as the Rams’ starter (117-120-1 overall).
McVay is 92-59 as an NFL head coach.
Rams held four of six opponents under 300 total yards.
Rams are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Rams are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a favorite.
Rams are 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games vs AFC teams.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 ATS
Jaguars (4-2)
Jacksonville won three of their last four games.
Jaguars allowed 286+ passing yards in 4 of last 5 games.
Jaguars are 4-2 in last six games in England.
QB Lawrence is 27-41 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-2 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 last two.
Jaguars are 10-5-1 ATS last 16 games as an underdog.
Jaguars are 9-5 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars are 8-5 ATS last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Jaguars coach Coen/GM Gladstone used to work for the Rams.
Rams are 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS last five series games.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Raiders @ Chiefs (–12.5)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in wins, 20-41-25-40 in losses.
Raiders ran for 106 or fewer yards in five of six games.
Raiders are minus-6 in turnovers in losses, +2 in wins.
QB Geno Smith is 42-48 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-135-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders went under their team total in four of six games.
Las Vegas is 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Last six years, Raiders are 10-8 ATS in AFC West road games.
Las Vegas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 8-7 ATS in divisional games.
Chiefs (3-3)
Chiefs won/covered three of their last four games.
Last four games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Last two games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318/248 yards.
QB Mahomes is 109-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 304-166-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 18-22 ATS last 40 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 16-24 ATS last 40 games coming off a win.
Chiefs are 4-11 ATS last 15 AFC West home games.
Chiefs converted 22 of last 49 third down plays.
Opponents stayed under their team total in 4 of last 5 games.
Chiefs won 17 of last 20 series games.
Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Dolphins @ Browns (–2.5)
Dolphins (1-5)
Miami lost its last two games, by 3-2 points.
Miami has allowed 28.3 ppg in its 1-4 start.
Dolphins are minus-5 in turnovers losses, +3 in their win.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-30 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-30 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Miami is 0-5 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-14-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC East teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Browns (1-5)
Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in all six games.
Home teams are 6-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Browns ran for fewer than 100 yards in four of six games.
Browns scored 17-9 points in losing rookie QB Gabriel first two NFL starts.
Stefanski is 42-51 as a head coach.
Browns are favored for the first time this year.
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
Browns are 5-12 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland gained less than 250 yards in three of last four games.
Browns are 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games as a dog of 3 or fewer points.
Miami won four of last five series games.
Dolphins are 2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots (–6.5) @ Titans
Patriots (4-2)
Vrabel was 56-48 as Titans’ coach, from 2018-23;
Patriots are 3-0 on road, winning by 6-3-6 points.
Patriots scored 33-42-23-25 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
QB Maye is 7-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 60-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots won last three games, scoring 42-23-25 points.
Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
NE is 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 5-1.
Patriots held four of six foes under 100 rushing yards.
Titans (1-5)
Tennessee is 1-5 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10 points.
Titans fired their coach Monday; Mike McCoy is interim coach.
McCoy was 28-38 coaching the Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-5 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Titans have five TD’s, 14 FG’s on their 67 drives.
Titans were held under 300 TY in five of six games.
Tennessee is 4-13-1 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog.
AFC South underdogs are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Tennessee won three of last four series games.
Patriots are 2-3 SU/2-2-1 ATS last five visits to Nashville.
Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven meetings.
Panthers (-1.5) @ Jets
Panthers (3-3)
Carolina is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.
Panthers allowed 26-27-42 points in road games.
Last two games, Carolina ran ball for 239-216 yards.
QB Young is 9-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 8-15 as a head coach.
Panthers are road favorite for first time since 2021.
Under Canales, Carolina is 3-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina is 7-6-2 ATS in last 15 games with spread of or fewer points.
Last four games, Panthers converted 21-58 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 11-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (0-6)
Jets lost first six games, four of them by 6 or fewer points.
Jets played in England last week, didn’t take a bye week here.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6-15-2 points. (opponents over 5-1 team total)
Fields is 14-35 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-6 as a head coach.
LW, Jets were outgained 246-82; they ran 57 plays for 82 yards.
In six games, Jets are minus-7 in turnovers.
Jets are 6-13-1 ATS in last 19 games overall.
Jets are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 games as an underdog.
Jets are 9-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
DC Wilks was 5-6 as interim coach for Carolina in 2022.
Carolina is 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS last three series games.
Teams split last two meetings played here.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Saints @ Bears (–4.5)
Saints (1-5)
Saints lost their two road games, 44-13/31-19.
Saints were +5 in turnovers in their only win.
Saints allowed 29.2 ppg in their five losses
New Orleans has been outscored 120-65 in first half of games.
Saints are 18-9-1 ATS last 28 games as a road underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-5 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-11 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Saints were held under 20 points in four of five losses.
NFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bears (3-2)
Bears won their last three games, scoring 31-25-25 points.
Bears’ last two wins were both by 25-24 score.
In their three wins, Chicago was +10 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 3-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 8-14 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Chicago is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Bears are 3-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Over is 3-1-1 in their games this season.
NFC North favorites are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
New Orleans is 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Saints are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS last four visits to Chicago.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Eagles (–1.5) @ Vikings
Eagles (4-2)
Eagles lost last two games, scoring 17-17 points.
Eagles have been outgained in all six games.
Last four games, Eagles were held to 86-88-45-73 rushing yards.
QB Hurts is 55-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-25 as an NFL coach.
Eagles are 12-2-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Philly is 6-3 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 7-11 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, opponents’ team total: over 4-0
Last four weeks, Eagles allowed 356+ TY in all four games.
Vikings (3-2)
Last 15 years, Vikings are 5-10 SU/4-10-1 ATS in post-bye games.
Two weeks before the bye, Vikings split games in Ireland/England.
Vikings are +3 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Both QB’s are banged up; check status. Rookie Brosmer is #3 QB.
Wentz is 49-48-1 as an NFL starter, McCarthy is 1-1.
O’Connell is 37-21 as an NFL head coach.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog
Minnesota is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-9 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Eagles won last two series games, 34-28/24-7.
Home team won six of last seven meetings.
Eagles lost last two visits here; their last win in Minnesota was in 2008.
Colts @ Chargers (–1.5)
Colts (5-1)
Colts are 1-1 on road: W41-20 @ Titans, L20-27 @ Rams, in this stadium.
Indy scored 29+ points in all five of its wins.
Colts’ team total: over 5-1
QB Jones is 30-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 22-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 6-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Steichen, Indy is 10-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Colts are 14-6 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Colts are +5 in turnovers this year.
AFC South underdogs are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers (4-2)
Chargers scored 20+ points in wins, 18-10 in losses.
Bolts are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 45-42 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 64-31-1 as an NFL head coach.
Harbaugh was Colts’ QB from 1994-97.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 8-4 ATS in games coming off a win.
Bolts are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three weeks, Chargers ran ball for 149 yards/game.
AFC West teams are 8-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won eight of last 10 series games.
Colts are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five road series games.
Under is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
Giants @ Broncos (–7.5)
Giants (2-4)
Giants are 2-1 in rookie QB Dart’s first three starts.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
Last two weeks, Giants allowed 88-73 rushing yards.
Daboll is 21-37-1 as an NFL head coach.
Last four weeks, Giants ran ball for 149.8 yards/game.
Giants are 10-6-1 ATS last 17 games vs AFC teams.
Giants are 7-11 ATS last 18 games as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-7-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
NFC East teams are 8-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Broncos (4-2)
Broncos played in England LW, didn’t take a bye this week.
Denver’s two losses were by total of four points.
Denver allowed 12-3-17-11 points in its wins, 28-23 in losses.
QB Nix is 14-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 183-116 as an NFL head coach, 22-19 with Denver.
Five of their six games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 4-2 despite a minus-3 turnover ratio.
Broncos won four of last six series games.
Giants split their last two visits to Denver.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Packers (–6.5) @ Cardinals
Packers (3-1-1)
Green Bay is 3-0-1 when it scores 27+ points.
Packers held four of five opponents under 270 total yards.
Packers are 0-1-1 on road: L10-13 at Browns, T40-40 at Dallas.
QB Love is 22-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 73-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 4-13-1 ATS last 18 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 25-21-1 ATS last 47 games coming off a win.
Green Bay gained 400+ TY in three of its last four games.
Since 2021, Packers are 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
NFC North teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (2-4)
Cardinals lost last four games by total of nine points.
Last two weeks, Arizona gained 360-400 total yards.
Last three games, Cardinals converted 22-45 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter. Brissett is 19-35.
Gannon is 14-26 in 2+ years as a head coach.
All six Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 7-4 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 18-10 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
NFC West teams are 10-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Green Bay won four of last six series games.
Teams split their last six meetings in Arizona.
Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
Commanders (-1.5) @ Cowboys
Commanders (3-3)
Short week for Washington after 25-24 loss to Bears Monday night.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 4-1 last five games.
Last four games, Commanders scored 41-27-27-24 points.
QB Daniels is 16-8 as an NFL starter.
Quinn is 63-53 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in four of last five games.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 2-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 3 games, Commanders converted 6 of last 23 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 7-3 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cowboys (2-3-1)
Last five weeks, Dallas allowed 433.6 yards/game.
Dallas scored 20-14-27 in its losses, 40-40-37 in win/tie/win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
QB Prescott is 80-54-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 2-3-1 as a head coach.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Cowboys are 4-7 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
Dallas is 0-3 when they score less than 37 points.
Last three games, Dallas scored 13 TD’s on 29 drives.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five games.
Cowboys won five of last seven series games.
Washington is 2-7 SU/ATS in last nine visits to Dallas.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Falcons @ 49ers (–2.5)
Falcons (3-2)
Short week, long travel for Atlanta after Monday’s win over Buffalo.
Falcons held first five foes to 260-198-224-294-291 total yards.
Atlanta scored 22-34-24 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.
QB Penix is 4-4 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-49 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 6-11 ATS last 17 games coming off a win.
Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Falcons gained 435/443 total yards.
Atlanta is 5-10-1 ATS last 16 games on natural grass.
49ers (4-2)
49ers allowed 26-30 points in losses, 23 or less in wins.
Last four games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74-67 yards.
Unclear whether Jones/Purdy will start at QB.
QB Purdy is 28-16 as an NFL starter; Jones is 23-31.
Shanahan is 82-68 as an NFL head coach
All four of their wins were by 5 or fewer points.
Last three games, 49ers threw ball for 306/333/296 yards.
49ers are 7-11 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
49ers are 9-10 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Falcons are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS last four visits to Santa Clara.
Under is 7-4 in last eleven series games.
Weather Report
Sunday, October 19
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 7
Sunday’s games
Rams (–3.5) vs Jaguars (@ London)
Rams (4-2)
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS vs AFC teams this season.
Last two weeks, Rams ran ball for only 78-74 yards.
QB Stafford is 43-27 as the Rams’ starter (117-120-1 overall).
McVay is 92-59 as an NFL head coach.
Rams held four of six opponents under 300 total yards.
Rams are 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
Rams are 13-7 ATS in last 20 games as a favorite.
Rams are 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games vs AFC teams.
NFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-4 ATS
Jaguars (4-2)
Jacksonville won three of their last four games.
Jaguars allowed 286+ passing yards in 4 of last 5 games.
Jaguars are 4-2 in last six games in England.
QB Lawrence is 27-41 as an NFL starter.
Liam Coen is 4-2 as an NFL head coach.
Jaguars were +9 in turnovers first four games, minus-1 last two.
Jaguars are 10-5-1 ATS last 16 games as an underdog.
Jaguars are 9-5 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.
Jaguars are 8-5 ATS last 13 games vs NFC teams.
Jaguars coach Coen/GM Gladstone used to work for the Rams.
Rams are 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS last five series games.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.
Raiders @ Chiefs (–12.5)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders allowed 13-10 points in wins, 20-41-25-40 in losses.
Raiders ran for 106 or fewer yards in five of six games.
Raiders are minus-6 in turnovers in losses, +2 in wins.
QB Geno Smith is 42-48 as an NFL starter.
Carroll is 183-135-1 as an NFL head coach.
Raiders went under their team total in four of six games.
Las Vegas is 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Last six years, Raiders are 10-8 ATS in AFC West road games.
Las Vegas is 7-5 ATS in last 12 games coming off a win.
NFL-wide, home favorites are 8-7 ATS in divisional games.
Chiefs (3-3)
Chiefs won/covered three of their last four games.
Last four games, Kansas City is +5 in turnovers.
Last two games, Chiefs threw ball for 264/318/248 yards.
QB Mahomes is 109-29 as an NFL starter.
Andy Reid is 304-166-1 as an NFL head coach
Chiefs are 18-22 ATS last 40 games as a home favorite.
Chiefs are 16-24 ATS last 40 games coming off a win.
Chiefs are 4-11 ATS last 15 AFC West home games.
Chiefs converted 22 of last 49 third down plays.
Opponents stayed under their team total in 4 of last 5 games.
Chiefs won 17 of last 20 series games.
Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Arrowhead.
Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.
Dolphins @ Browns (–2.5)
Dolphins (1-5)
Miami lost its last two games, by 3-2 points.
Miami has allowed 28.3 ppg in its 1-4 start.
Dolphins are minus-5 in turnovers losses, +3 in their win.
QB Tagovailoa is 39-30 as an NFL starter.
McDaniel is 29-30 as a head coach.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Miami is 0-5 when it allows more than 21 points.
Miami is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 9-14-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
AFC East teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Browns (1-5)
Browns have scored 17 or fewer points in all six games.
Home teams are 6-0 ATS in Cleveland games this year.
Browns ran for fewer than 100 yards in four of six games.
Browns scored 17-9 points in losing rookie QB Gabriel first two NFL starts.
Stefanski is 42-51 as a head coach.
Browns are favored for the first time this year.
Cleveland is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
Browns are 5-12 ATS last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland gained less than 250 yards in three of last four games.
Browns are 6-12-1 ATS in last 19 games as a dog of 3 or fewer points.
Miami won four of last five series games.
Dolphins are 2-4 SU/2-3-1 ATS last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Patriots (–6.5) @ Titans
Patriots (4-2)
Vrabel was 56-48 as Titans’ coach, from 2018-23;
Patriots are 3-0 on road, winning by 6-3-6 points.
Patriots scored 33-42-23-25 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
QB Maye is 7-11 as an NFL starter.
Vrabel is 60-50 as an NFL head coach.
Patriots won last three games, scoring 42-23-25 points.
Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
NE is 7-8-2 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Opponents’ team total; under 5-1.
Patriots held four of six foes under 100 rushing yards.
Titans (1-5)
Tennessee is 1-5 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10 points.
Titans fired their coach Monday; Mike McCoy is interim coach.
McCoy was 28-38 coaching the Chargers from 2013-16.
Rookie QB Ward is 1-5 as an NFL starter.
In their only win, Titans trailed 21-6 with 11:00 left.
Titans have five TD’s, 14 FG’s on their 67 drives.
Titans were held under 300 TY in five of six games.
Tennessee is 4-13-1 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
Titans are 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as an underdog.
AFC South underdogs are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Tennessee won three of last four series games.
Patriots are 2-3 SU/2-2-1 ATS last five visits to Nashville.
Favorites are 5-2 ATS in last seven meetings.
Panthers (-1.5) @ Jets
Panthers (3-3)
Carolina is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.
Panthers allowed 26-27-42 points in road games.
Last two games, Carolina ran ball for 239-216 yards.
QB Young is 9-25 as an NFL starter.
Canales is 8-15 as a head coach.
Panthers are road favorite for first time since 2021.
Under Canales, Carolina is 3-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Carolina is 7-6-2 ATS in last 15 games with spread of or fewer points.
Last four games, Panthers converted 21-58 third down plays.
NFC South teams are 11-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Jets (0-6)
Jets lost first six games, four of them by 6 or fewer points.
Jets played in England last week, didn’t take a bye week here.
Jets’ losses are by 2-20-2-6-15-2 points. (opponents over 5-1 team total)
Fields is 14-35 as an NFL starter.
Aaron Glenn is 0-6 as a head coach.
LW, Jets were outgained 246-82; they ran 57 plays for 82 yards.
In six games, Jets are minus-7 in turnovers.
Jets are 6-13-1 ATS in last 19 games overall.
Jets are 1-9-1 ATS last 11 games as an underdog.
Jets are 9-16-1 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
DC Wilks was 5-6 as interim coach for Carolina in 2022.
Carolina is 3-0 SU/2-0-1 ATS last three series games.
Teams split last two meetings played here.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Saints @ Bears (–4.5)
Saints (1-5)
Saints lost their two road games, 44-13/31-19.
Saints were +5 in turnovers in their only win.
Saints allowed 29.2 ppg in their five losses
New Orleans has been outscored 120-65 in first half of games.
Saints are 18-9-1 ATS last 28 games as a road underdog.
Kellen Moore is 1-5 as a head coach.
Rattler is 1-11 as an NFL starting QB.
Saints are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Saints were held under 20 points in four of five losses.
NFC South underdogs are 9-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Bears (3-2)
Bears won their last three games, scoring 31-25-25 points.
Bears’ last two wins were both by 25-24 score.
In their three wins, Chicago was +10 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 3-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 8-14 as an NFL starter.
Chicago is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games as a home favorite.
Chicago is 7-13-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
Bears are 3-0 when they allow less than 27 points.
Over is 3-1-1 in their games this season.
NFC North favorites are 4-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
New Orleans is 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Saints are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS last four visits to Chicago.
Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.
Eagles (–1.5) @ Vikings
Eagles (4-2)
Eagles lost last two games, scoring 17-17 points.
Eagles have been outgained in all six games.
Last four games, Eagles were held to 86-88-45-73 rushing yards.
QB Hurts is 55-25 as an NFL starter.
Sirianni is 57-25 as an NFL coach.
Eagles are 12-2-1 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Philly is 6-3 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 7-11 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Last four weeks, opponents’ team total: over 4-0
Last four weeks, Eagles allowed 356+ TY in all four games.
Vikings (3-2)
Last 15 years, Vikings are 5-10 SU/4-10-1 ATS in post-bye games.
Two weeks before the bye, Vikings split games in Ireland/England.
Vikings are +3 in turnovers in wins, minus-5 in losses.
Both QB’s are banged up; check status. Rookie Brosmer is #3 QB.
Wentz is 49-48-1 as an NFL starter, McCarthy is 1-1.
O’Connell is 37-21 as an NFL head coach.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog
Minnesota is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under O’Connell, Vikings are 28-9 SU in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
NFC North teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Eagles won last two series games, 34-28/24-7.
Home team won six of last seven meetings.
Eagles lost last two visits here; their last win in Minnesota was in 2008.
Colts @ Chargers (–1.5)
Colts (5-1)
Colts are 1-1 on road: W41-20 @ Titans, L20-27 @ Rams, in this stadium.
Indy scored 29+ points in all five of its wins.
Colts’ team total: over 5-1
QB Jones is 30-46-1 is as an NFL starter.
Steichen is 22-18 SU in 2+ years as a head coach
Under Steichen, Indy is 6-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Steichen, Indy is 10-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Colts are 14-6 ATS in last 20 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Colts are +5 in turnovers this year.
AFC South underdogs are 5-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers (4-2)
Chargers scored 20+ points in wins, 18-10 in losses.
Bolts are 3-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
QB Herbert is 45-42 as an NFL starter.
Jim Harbaugh is 64-31-1 as an NFL head coach.
Harbaugh was Colts’ QB from 1994-97.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Harbaugh, Chargers are 8-4 ATS in games coming off a win.
Bolts are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last three weeks, Chargers ran ball for 149 yards/game.
AFC West teams are 8-11 ATS in non-divisional games.
Chargers won eight of last 10 series games.
Colts are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five road series games.
Under is 7-1 in last eight meetings.
Giants @ Broncos (–7.5)
Giants (2-4)
Giants are 2-1 in rookie QB Dart’s first three starts.
Giants allowed 18-17 points in wins, 21+ points in losses.
Giants are +4 in turnovers in wins, minus-7 in losses.
Last two weeks, Giants allowed 88-73 rushing yards.
Daboll is 21-37-1 as an NFL head coach.
Last four weeks, Giants ran ball for 149.8 yards/game.
Giants are 10-6-1 ATS last 17 games vs AFC teams.
Giants are 7-11 ATS last 18 games as a road underdog
Under Daboll, Giants are 10-7-1 ATS in games coming off a win.
NFC East teams are 8-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
Broncos (4-2)
Broncos played in England LW, didn’t take a bye this week.
Denver’s two losses were by total of four points.
Denver allowed 12-3-17-11 points in its wins, 28-23 in losses.
QB Nix is 14-10 as an NFL starter.
Payton is 183-116 as an NFL head coach, 22-19 with Denver.
Five of their six games were decided by 8 or fewer points.
Under Payton, Denver is 11-8 ATS as a favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Payton, Denver is 10-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
Broncos are 4-2 despite a minus-3 turnover ratio.
Broncos won four of last six series games.
Giants split their last two visits to Denver.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
Packers (–6.5) @ Cardinals
Packers (3-1-1)
Green Bay is 3-0-1 when it scores 27+ points.
Packers held four of five opponents under 270 total yards.
Packers are 0-1-1 on road: L10-13 at Browns, T40-40 at Dallas.
QB Love is 22-18-1 as an NFL starter
LaFleur is 73-39-1 as an NFL head coach.
Packers are 4-13-1 ATS last 18 games as a road favorite.
Packers are 25-21-1 ATS last 47 games coming off a win.
Green Bay gained 400+ TY in three of its last four games.
Since 2021, Packers are 5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.
NFC North teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.
Cardinals (2-4)
Cardinals lost last four games by total of nine points.
Last two weeks, Arizona gained 360-400 total yards.
Last three games, Cardinals converted 22-45 third down plays.
Murray is 38-49-1 as an NFL starter. Brissett is 19-35.
Gannon is 14-26 in 2+ years as a head coach.
All six Arizona games were decided by 7 or fewer points,
Cardinals are 7-4 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 18-10 ATS as an underdog.
Arizona is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a loss.
NFC West teams are 10-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
Green Bay won four of last six series games.
Teams split their last six meetings in Arizona.
Under is 3-0-1 in last four series games.
Commanders (-1.5) @ Cowboys
Commanders (3-3)
Short week for Washington after 25-24 loss to Bears Monday night.
Opponents’ over/under total: over 4-1 last five games.
Last four games, Commanders scored 41-27-27-24 points.
QB Daniels is 16-8 as an NFL starter.
Quinn is 63-53 as an NFL coach.
Commanders allowed 354+ yards in four of last five games.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 2-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 3 games, Commanders converted 6 of last 23 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 5-2 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Washington is 7-3 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Cowboys (2-3-1)
Last five weeks, Dallas allowed 433.6 yards/game.
Dallas scored 20-14-27 in its losses, 40-40-37 in win/tie/win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
QB Prescott is 80-54-1 as an NFL starter.
Brian Schottenheimer is 2-3-1 as a head coach.
Since 2021, Cowboys are 4-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Cowboys are 4-7 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
Dallas is 0-3 when they score less than 37 points.
Last three games, Dallas scored 13 TD’s on 29 drives.
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1 last five games.
Cowboys won five of last seven series games.
Washington is 2-7 SU/ATS in last nine visits to Dallas.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Falcons @ 49ers (–2.5)
Falcons (3-2)
Short week, long travel for Atlanta after Monday’s win over Buffalo.
Falcons held first five foes to 260-198-224-294-291 total yards.
Atlanta scored 22-34-24 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.
QB Penix is 4-4 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 32-49 as a head coach.
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Falcons are 6-11 ATS last 17 games coming off a win.
Atlanta is 8-17 ATS in last 25 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Last two weeks, Falcons gained 435/443 total yards.
Atlanta is 5-10-1 ATS last 16 games on natural grass.
49ers (4-2)
49ers allowed 26-30 points in losses, 23 or less in wins.
Last four games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74-67 yards.
Unclear whether Jones/Purdy will start at QB.
QB Purdy is 28-16 as an NFL starter; Jones is 23-31.
Shanahan is 82-68 as an NFL head coach
All four of their wins were by 5 or fewer points.
Last three games, 49ers threw ball for 306/333/296 yards.
49ers are 7-11 ATS last 18 games as a home favorite.
49ers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
49ers are 9-10 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Falcons are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS last four visits to Santa Clara.
Under is 7-4 in last eleven series games.
2025 WESTGATE LAS VEGAS NFL SUPERCONTEST
| SUPERCONTEST LEADERS STANDINGS & SELECTIONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 7: 10/14/25 – 10/20/25 | |||||
| SUPERCONTEST WEEK 7 LINES/ODDS | BY # OF TEAMS | ||||
| Steelers | -5 | vs. | BENGALS | CLE 234 | TEN 105 |
| Rams | -3 | vs. | Jaguars | DET 229 | CHI 101 |
| CHIEFS | -11.5 | vs. | Raiders | LAC 217 | LV 99 |
| BROWNS | -2.5 | vs. | Dolphins | NO 197 | LAR 99 |
| Patriots | -7 | vs. | TITANS | SEA 196 | NYG 98 |
| BEARS | -5 | vs. | Saints | PHI 190 | CAR 98 |
| Eagles | -1.5 | vs. | VIKINGS | DAL 176 | SF 92 |
| Panthers | -1.5 | vs. | NY JETS | NE 147 | ARI 88 |
| CHARGERS | -1.5 | vs. | Colts | JAX 141 | TB 85 |
| BRONCOS | -7 | vs. | NY Giants | ATL 139 | WAS 79 |
| Commanders | -1.5 | vs. | COWBOYS | NYJ 139 | KC 73 |
| Packers | -6.5 | vs. | CARDINALS | DEN 137 | CIN 63 |
| 49ERS | -2 | vs. | Falcons | GB 111 | MIA 57 |
| LIONS | -5.5 | vs. | Buccaneers | HOU 110 | PIT 28 |
| SEAHAWKS | -3 | vs. | Texans | MIN 110 | BUF 0 |
| IND 107 | BAL 0 | ||||
| CAPS -> HOME | TOP 5 LW: 4-1 | YTD: 18-18-1 | |||
| TEAM | W | L | T | LW | PTS |
| PERSIAN PRINCESS | 24 | 6 | 0 | 24.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | KC | LAC | GB | HOU | ATL |
| TOROK9R | 22 | 8 | 0 | 22.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | KC | MIN | NYJ | DEN | HOU |
| SEANSDOLPHINS1 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 22.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | CLE | TEN | NO | DEN | SEA |
| $JAR3 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 22.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | TEN | NYJ | DEN | GB | DET |
| 91ACES | 22 | 8 | 0 | 22.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | CLE | PHI | LAC | DAL | DET |
| TAFT69 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 21.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | JAX | NO | LAC | GB | HOU |
| LOGIN FIELDS | 21 | 9 | 0 | 21.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | KC | MIA | NO | NYG | SF |
| BIFFS ALMANAC | 21 | 9 | 0 | 21.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | CIN | NE | MIN | CAR | NYG |
| SEANSDOLHPINS5 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 21.00 | |
| WK 7 PKS | LAR | MIN | LAC | ARI | DET |
| AL RUSSON NO CAN DO3 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 20.50 | |
| WK 7 PKS | JAX | KC | CLE | LAC | HOU |
| SBMA20163 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 20.50 | |
| WK 7 PKS | LAR | NYJ | IND | GB | HOU |
| WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPER CONTEST WEEK 7 LINES, ODDS, PICKS & STANDINGS |
