CNOTES 2025-2026 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE + NEWS, NOTES BEST BETS !

[CNOTES]

Wednesday’s 6-pack
— Saint Louis 91, Davidson 82- Billikens have won 16 in a row, are 22-1.
— USC 81, Indiana 75- Trojans were 25-31 on line, had 40-25 edge on boards.
— NC State 84, SMU 83- State’s Copeland had 16 assists, 10 rebounds, no turnovers.
— Kent State 75, Toledo 72- Rockets led by 17 with 9:21 left in the game.
— Boise State 91, Nevada 87 OT- Broncos shot 69% inside the arc.
— Miami 73, Buffalo 71- Miami is 23-0; four of their last five wins were by 2 or less points, or in overtime.

Thought of the Day
“Our members have no appetite for a regular-season 18th game. The 18th game is not casual for us. It’s a very serious issue. It’s something that comes out of negotiations, and nothing will move forward until players have the opportunity to account for all of those factors, take that into consideration and then through negotiations, agree or not to the 18th game.”
NFLPA executive director David White

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, what well-known character actor plays the emcee of the Academy Awards at the end of the movie?

Tuesday’s quiz
Since 2000, the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders have had the most head coaches (17)

Monday’s quiz
In the movie Groundhog Day, Bill Murray’s character’s (Phil Connors) is a TV weatherman.

***********************************

Wednesday’s Den: A sampling of Super Bowl prop bets……​

A sportsbook in Las Vegas put out its menu of Super Bowl prop bets; it is 53 pages full of bets. Here is a sampling of some of the things you can bet on:

— Total for the first half: 21.5 points.

— Total touchdowns scored in the game: 5.5 touchdowns

— Coin toss: Heads or tails? (Yes, people bet on that)

— Team to score first in the game.

— Team to score last in the game.

— Which team will use a replay challenge first?

— Highest scoring quarter by both teams: over/under 19.5

— Longest touchdown scored: over/under 36.5 yards

— Will either team score in the first 6:30 of the game?

— Total number of sacks in the game: over/under 5.5

— Total completions by Sam Darnold: 20.5

— Total receiving yards by Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 95.5

— Longest reception by Cooper Kupp: 15.5 yards

— Total rushing yards by Kenneth Walker: 75.5 yards

— Longest gross punt by Michael Dickson: 55.5 yards

— Total first downs by the Seahawks: 19.5

— Total yards by both teams: 637.5 yards

— Famous birthdays, February 4th:
John Schuck, 86
Steve O’Neal, 80
Keith Krepfle, 74
Lawrence Taylor, 67
Dan Plesac, 64
Gabrielle Anwar, 56
Rob Corddry, 55
Ramiel Tapia, 32
George Kirby, 28
RJ Harvey, 25

— Total passing yards by Drake Maye: 224.5 yards

— Total receiving yards by Stefan Diggs: 46.5 yards

— Longest reception by Kayshon Boutte: 17.5 yards

— Total rushing yards by Rhamondre Stevenson: 49.5 yards

— Shortest gross punt for Bryce Baringer: 39.5 yards

— Total first downs by the Patriots: 19.5

— Who will complete more passes, Darnold or Maye?

— Who will make a field goal first?

— Jersey number of the first player to score a touchdown? Over/under 11.5

— Who will win the game?

That is a small sampling of the things you can bet on Sunday.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s 6-pack
Odds to make baseball’s playoffs this year:
99.2%— Dodgers
87.4%— Braves
80.3%— Mets
78.6%— Mariners
68.9%— Bronx
65.2%— Phillies

Thought of the Day
“A clever person solves a problem; a wise person avoids it.”
Albert Einstein

Thursday’s quiz
What team is the only NFL team to run the opening kickoff of a Super Bowl back for a TD?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, Robert Wuhl plays the emcee of the Academy Awards at the end of the movie.

Tuesday’s quiz
Since 2000, the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders have had the most head coaches (17)

************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……​

Rough week here at Armadillo World HQ: the recent barrage of cold weather is screwing with our town’s infrastructure.
Some pipes broke under our street, had no water all day Tuesday, which wasn’t good. You take stuff for granted until you don’t have it, was freakin’ happy to hop in the shower Wednesday morning.

— Portland 87, Gonzaga 80
Portland shot 65.8% inside the arc.
Pilots were a 21-point underdog; they’re 4-8 in WCC.
Portland had lost 20 games in a row vs Gonzaga.
Zags’ biggest lead the whole game was only two points.

— Minnesota 76, Michigan State 73
Gophers snap a seven-game losing streak.
Minnesota never trailed; they shot 10-21 on the arc.
Spartans out-rebounded Minnesota, 39-23

— Alabama 100, Texas A&M 97
Alabama was 16-48 on arc, 22-32 on foul line, scored 1.28 ppp.
Just second loss in last 12 games for Texas A&M
This season, 54% of Alabama’s shot have been 3’s; no team that has taken more 3’s than 2’s has ever won the national title.

— Oklahoma State 99, BYU 92
BYU is 1-4 in last five games, after a 16-1 start.
OSU was 22-34 on foul line, BYU 13-17.
Cowboys shot 65.1% inside the arc; game was 41-41 at halftime.

— East Tennessee State 75, Furman 71 OT
Furman led by 15 early in second half.
Paladins had 21 turnovers, ETSU had nine.
Buccaneers now lead SoCon with a 9-2 mark.

— Clemson 66, Stanford 64
Stanford led by six early in second half.
Clemson was 17-22 on foul line, Cardinal 7-9
Tigers improve to 19-4, 9-1 in ACC games.

— Tulsa 78, FAU 76
Florida Atlantic led 32-25 at halftime.
Tulsa has won seven in row, is 20-3, 8-2 in AAC
FAU has lost four in row, after starting 6-1 in AAC.

— Big night for underdogs in the Horizon League:
Youngstown State (+3.5) 90, Fort Wayne 61
Cleveland State (+7.5) 91, Oakland 78
Robert Morris (+2.5) 72, Wright State 66
Green Bay (+7.5) 87, Northern Kentucky 84 OT
Detroit (+6.5) 76, Milwaukee 63

— Utah State 86, New Mexico 66
Aggies shot 65.5% inside the arc.
Utah State shot 11-31 on the arc, Lobos 3-13
Utah State/San Diego State are tied for first in Mountain West, game ahead of New Mexico.

— Famous birthdays, February 5th:
Roger Staubach, 84
Michael Mann, 83
Craig Morton, 83
Vic Correll, 80
Barbara Hershey, 78
Mike Heath, 71
Laura Linney, 62
Roberto Alomar, 58
Terrence Ross, 35
Nick Lodolo, 28
Cam Schlittler, 25
Cam Skattebo, 24
The great Henry Aaron was born 92 years ago Thursday.

— Former Bears’ coach Matt Nagy is the Giants’ new offensive coordinator; Nagy was with the Chiefs the last four years. Nagy was 34-33 as an NFL head coach.

— Former Colts/Panthers’ coach Frank Reich is the Jets’ new offensive coordinator; Reich was interim coach at Stanford this past season. Reich was 42-45-1 as an NFL head coach.

— No team owners should get into a pro Hall of Fame, unless they also coached. Hall of Fames should be reserved for players, coaches, general managers, the people who help win/lose games.

— Movie of the Day: The Bodyguard (1992)- A former Secret Service agent becomes a bodyguard for a famous singer, whose lifestyle is most unlike a politician’s.
Kevin Costner is the bodyguard, Whitney Houston is the singer. This is a very good movie.

— Pittsburgh Pirates’ pitching ace Paul Skenes had a 1.97 ERA last year, a 0.95 WHIP, but the Pirates were only 17-15 in his starts. Go figure.

— Arizona Diamondbacks signed 1B Carlos Santana for one year, $2M; Santana has played for eight years in his 16-year career. He only hit .219 last year, in 124 games for Guardians/Cubs.

— There was a 3-team trade in baseball the other day, with Brendan Donovan moving from the Cardinals to Seattle; last seven times there was a three-way trade in baseball, Tampa Bay Rays were involved six times. Not really sure why; may have something to do with the Rays being willing to give up an additional competitive balance pick in the deal.

— Cleveland Cavaliers traded Darius Garland and a 2nd-round draft pick for James Harden; Garland just turned 26; he was scoring 18 points/game for the Cavaliers, and over the next three years, he’ll make $42M/year. Good move for the future for the Clippers. Seeing how Harden is 36 years old.

— James Harden’s career path:
2009-12- Oklahoma City
2012-21- Houston
2021-22- Brooklyn
2022-23- Philadelphia
2023-26- LA Clippers
2026-??- Cleveland

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack
College football teams who have signed the most transfers for next year:
51— Oklahoma State
48— Iowa State
41— Arkansas, Colorado, UCLA
40— LSU
39— Auburn
37— Penn State

Thought of the Day
“He had the greatest arm I’ve ever seen in my life. The guy could pitch every day, every hour, every minute, and not worry about any pain. The guy was just unbelievable.”
Former Tigers’ star Denny McLain, on his former teammate, the late Mickey Lolich

Friday’s quiz
Which Hall of Fame manager is the last player to ground into four double plays in one game?

Thursday’s quiz
Chicago Bears are the only NFL team to run the opening kickoff of a Super Bowl back for a TD.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the movie The Bodyguard, Robert Wuhl plays the emcee of the Academy Awards at the end of the movie.

****************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

— Detroit Tigers signed P Framber Valdez for three years, $115M, the day before they lost their arbitration case with Tarik Skubal, when they only offered him $19M.
Valdez is 81-52, 3.36 in 166 career starts; the last four years, he’s started 121 games, so he’s been durable, but Skubal is 31-10 the last two years, leading the league in ERA both years. Leads you to believe that Detroit might trade Skubal before he hits free agency.

— When it was announced that the Tigers signed Valdez, their over/under win total in Las Vegas for this season jumped from 84.5 to 86.5.

— Speaking of the Tigers, RIP to former Detroit star Mickey Lolich, who passed away this week at age 85. Lolich won 217 games in his 16-year career; he won three games for the Tigers in the 1968 World Series, later won 25 games in 1971.

— San Diego Padres signed OF Miguel Andujar for one year, $4M; he hit .318 last year for the A’s/Reds, with an .822 OPS but that was playing home games in two of the best hitters’ parks/

— Rams-49ers will play a game in Australia next season; Dallas Cowboys will play a game in Brazil; dates won’t be announced until the 2026 schedule comes out in May. Last year the game in Brazil was the Friday night in Week 1.

— There has never been a punt returned for a touchdown in a Super Bowl.

— Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss lost his appeal for an extra year of college eligibility, so he’ll be in April’s NFL Draft. Someone compared him to Russell Wilson, a pretty big compliment.

— Good news for the Philadelphia Eagles:
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will be back next year, for his third season with the Eagles, who ranked 2nd/5th in points allowed the last two years.
Bad news for the Philadelphia Eagles:
Jeff Stoutland quit as the Eagles’ offensive line coach, after 13 years in Philly; Eagles hired a new offensive coordinator, so a coach who helped lead seven players to 26 Pro Bowls and five players to All-Pro honors is walking away from the team.

— Famous birthdays, February 6th:
Mike Farrell, 87
Richie Zisk, 77
Tom Tupa, 60
Kris Humphries, 42
Kevon Looney, 30
Adley Rutschman, 28

— Memphis 90, UAB 80
Sincere Parker scored 40 points in 26:00; he didn’t start.
UAB was only 9-37 on the arc, 21-35 on foul line.
Memphis scored 90+ points in its last three wins.

— West Virginia 59, Cincinnati 54
Bearcats led by 14 early in second half.
WVU has won six of its last nine games; they shot 55.6% inside arc.
Cincinnati is 5-10 in its last 15 games, 1-4 in last five.

— Cal-Davis 85, Cal-Santa Barbara 75
Cal-Davis shot 10-18 on the arc, scored 1.31 ppp.
Loss snaps the Gauchos’ six-game winning streak.
Cal-Irvine leads Hawai’i by a game atop the Big West standings.

— Eastern Kentucky 76, Florida Gulf Coast 74
Eagles led by 21 with 13:28 left in the game.
Colonels snapped a four-game losing skid.
EKU was 20-25 on the foul line, FGCU was 10-13.

— Cal-Fullerton 78, Cal-Riverside 72
Riverside led 15-0 out of the gate, led by 6 with 8:48 left.
Titans were 27-32 on foul line, Riverside was 9-16.
Fullerton is forcing turnovers 22.9% of time in Big West games, best in league.

— Utah Tech 87, Tex-Arlington 84, 2OTs
Utah Tech led by 10 with 13:39 left in the game.
Utah Tech has won four in row; they’re shooting 38.3% on arc in WAC tilts (#1)
Tex-Arlington lost its last two games, both in overtime.

— Ohio State 82, Maryland 62
Maryland is 8-14, 1-10 and they start three seniors.
Terrapins lost 13 of their last 16 games.
Ohio State is shooting 59.6% inside arc (#13)

— Latest Bracketology:
#1-seeds- Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Duke
#2-seeds- Gonzaga, Houston, Iowa State, Illinois
#3-seeds- Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Kansas
#4-seeds- Vanderbilt, BYU, Texas Tech, Florida

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Super Bowl

Super Bowl
Patriots vs Seahawks (-4.5) (@ Santa Clara, CA)
Patriots (17-3)
Patriots are 16-1 SU/13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
Last five games, New England allowed 10-10-3-16-7 points.
Last four games, Patriots have 16 sacks.
QB Maye is 20-12 as an NFL starter (3-0 in playoffs).
Vrabel is 73-51 as an NFL head coach (5-3 in playoffs).


Patriots are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
New England covered five of its last six games.
Opponents’ team total: under 16-2 last 18 games
Over is 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
Patriots are in Super Bowl for first time in seven years.


Seahawks (16-3)
Seahawks are 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Seahawks held six of last eight foes to 16 or fewer points.
Last three games, Seattle is +5 in turnovers.
Darnold is 51-42 as an NFL starter (2-1 in playoffs)
MacDonald is 26-10 as a head coach (2-0 in playoffs).


Seattle’s losses this year were by 4-3-2 points.
In its three losses, Seattle was minus-5 in turnovers.
Seattle is 7-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Seahawks went over their team total 13 of last 18 games.
Opponents’ team total: under 12-6-1.


Underdogs covered last five Super Bowls (10-4 ATS last 14)
Seattle won 23-20 in OT at Foxboro last year.
Seahawks won last four series games.


Both QB’s, both head coaches are in their first Super Bowl in this role.
AFC teams are 9-4 SU in last 13 Super Bowls

NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

NFL

Super Bowl

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Seattle VS New England
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games against New England.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against New England.
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games.
New England is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 7 games against Seattle.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack
Teams with the most players in the World Baseball Classic:
17- Mets
16- Mariners
15- Phillies
14- Red Sox
14- Royals
14- Brewers
14- Pirates

Quote of the Day
“The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
Lao Tzu

Saturday’s quiz
Who is the New England Patriots’ all-time leader in rushing yards?

Friday’s quiz
Joe Torre is the last player to ground into four double plays in one game; he did it in 1975, the only other guy to do it was in 1934.

Thursday’s quiz
Chicago Bears are the only NFL team to run the opening kickoff of a Super Bowl back for a TD.

*********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— St John’s 81, UConn 72
St John’s wins its ninth game in a row.
Loss snaps Huskies’ 18-game winning streak.
Red Storm was 22-31 on foul line, UConn 5-12
Game was 39-39 at halftime.

— RIP to the great QB Sonny Jurgensen, who passed away this week at age 91; he led the NFL in passing five times in an 18-year career, for the Eagles/Redskins. In his career, Jurgensen threw for 32,224 yards, playing in an era when teams didn’t throw that much. RIP, sir.
One of the first NFL games I remember was in 1966; I was six years old. Washington beat the Giants 72-41…..
Washington ran a punt back for a TD, scored two defensive TD’s
The two kickers were brothers; Pete/Charlie Gogolak.
Giants outgained Washington 389-341, but had six turnovers.
In a game with 113 points, both teams had 100+ penalty yards.

— There is only one QB in NFL history who is eligible to be voted into the Hall of Fame who has won a Super Bowl, and also won an MVP award…….Joe Theismann.

— LA Rams are bringing in Kliff Kingsbury in to be an assistant coach next year, which should help their offense, which is already really good.

— World Baseball Classic will have 36 players who were major league All-Stars last year.

— 38-year old 1B Paul Goldschmidt signed up to go back to the Bronx this season; last year, he hit .274 with a .731 OPS in New York.

— Way back in 1976, Ted Turner bought the Atlanta Braves for $12M; he sold the Braves in 2007, for $450M. Pretty good deal.

— OF Michael Siani has played in 160 games the last four years, for the Reds/Cardinals. He’s had an interesting off-season:
November 6th- Braves claimed him off waivers.
December 10th- Braves designated him for assignment
December 12th- Dodgers claimed him off waivers.
January 21st- Dodgers designated him for assignment
January 23rd- Bronx claimed him off waivers.
January 28th- Bronx designated him for assignment.

Spring training starts next week……

— Was disappointed to hear that Buck Martinez retired as a TV announcer this week; he was very good on TV, teamed with Dan Schulman on Blue Jays games.

— Famous birthdays, February 7th:
Burt Hooton, 76
Rolf Benirschke, 71
Carney Lansford, 69
James Spader, 66
Rick Neuheisel, 65
Chris Rock, 61
Billy Joe Tolliver, 60
Juwan Howard, 53
Steve Nash, 52
Ashton Kutcher, 48
Matthew Stafford, 38
Shedeur Sanders, 24

— Last week, Portland Pilots had so many players sick, coach Shantay Legans was playing on the scout team during practice; he tore his achilles. Not ideal.
This week has been better for Portland; they upset Gonzaga as 21-point underdogs, ending a 20-game losing streak against the Zags.

— AAC is doing their conference tournament a little different this year; only 10 of their 13 teams will be in the conference tournament.

— Referee DJ Carstensen has officiated 56 games this season; he played college ball at Utica College in the early 80’s, when the Pioneers made a run at becoming a Division I team. Their coach was Larry Costello, who had coached the Milwaukee Bucks when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was a rookie.
Back then, I was student manager at Albany, at the time a really good D-3 program; we played Utica every year, but when they went D-I, we didn’t beat them. Carstensen was a good player.

— Chicago Bulls are 24-28 this year, on the bubble for the last playoff spot in the East; they’ve traded away seven players, and brought in seven new players in an almost complete overhaul of their roster.

— Belmont 68, Ill-Chicago 62
Belmont was 13-31 on the arc, Flames were 3-18
Second loss in row for UIC, after an 8-game win streak.
Belmont has won nine a row, leads MVC by two games.

— There is a woman skiing in the Olympics with a torn ACL; didn’t think that was possible, but it obviously is. She is wearing a knee brace, but still, jeez, she must be very, very tough.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Tarik Skubal’s salary, the last six years:
2021— $574,000
2022— $714,000
2023— $744,000
2024— $2.65M
2025— $10.15M
2026— $32M

Quote of the Day
“Nothing is really fun unless it’s hard. Embrace the fact that it’s hard.”
Mike Leach

Thursday’s quiz
Who was QB for the Seahawks, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Saturday’s quiz
Sam Cunningham is the New England Patriots’ all-time leader in rushing yards.

Friday’s quiz
Joe Torre is the last player to ground into four double plays in one game; he did it in 1975, the only other guy to do it was in 1934.

***************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college basketball Saturday……​

— ACC
North Carolina 71, Duke 68
Tar Heels hit a 3-pointer with 0:00.4 left, their first lead of game.
Duke led 18-5 right out of the gate.
UNC has won five in a row, is 19-4, 7-3 in ACC.

Clemson 77, California 55
Clemson shot 12-26 on arc, improved to 10-1 in ACC
Cal is shooting only 45.3% inside arc in ACC play (#18 of 18)
Why are these teams in the same league? Seriously?

Bracketology has ACC getting eight teams in NCAA Tournament
42.1% of shots taken in ACC games are 3’s (#4 in country)

— SEC
Oklahoma 92, Vanderbilt 91
Sooners snap a nine-game losing streak.
Oklahoma led by 21 with 4:59 left, hung on for dear life.
Vandy is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 16-0 start.
Tyler Tanner scored 37 points, had nine assists for Vandy.

Alabama 96, Auburn 92
Auburn led by 10 late in first half.
Alabama shot 12-23 on the arc, scored 1.29 ppp.
SEC teams are shooting 39% on arc vs Auburn this year.

Bracketology has SEC getting ten teams in NCAA Tournament
SEC games are the 3rd-fastest of any league in country.

— Big 18
Indiana 78, Wisconsin 77 OT
Wisconsin was up by 4 with 0:57 left in regulation.
Hoosiers shot 61% inside the arc.
Indiana won four of last five games, is 7-6 in conference.

Michigan State 85, Illinois 82 OT
MSU’s Jeremy Fears scored 26 points, had 15 assists.
Loss snaps Illinois’ 12-game winning streak.
Spartans won eight of their last ten games.

Bracketology has Big 18 getting 11 teams in NCAA Tournament
42.7% of shots taken in Big 18 games are 3’s (#3 in country)

— Big East
Creighton 69, Seton Hall 68
Seton Hall led by 9 with 1:35 left in the game.
Pirates are 2-6 in last eight games, after a 14-2 start.
Bluejays snap three-game skid, are 7-6 in conference.

Marquette 70, Butler 55
Golden Eagles shot 14-31 on the arc.
Butler has won four in row, eight of last 11 games.
Marquette won its last three home games.

Bracketology has Big East getting three teams in NCAA Tournament
Big East teams are shooting only 71.5% on foul line in league games (#26 in country)

— Mountain West
UNLV 80, Grand Canyon 78
Rebels hung on and snapped four-game skid.
Gibbs-Lawhorn played all 40:00, scored 29 points.
Grand Canyon is 8-4 in their first year in Mountain West.

Utah State 85, Wyoming 83
Utah State shot 69.7% inside arc, scored 1.26 ppp
Utah State has #14 eFG% in the country.
Aggies have won five in row, are 11-2 in Mountain West.

Bracketology has Mountain West getting two teams in NCAA Tournament
Only ten MW games all season were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.

— WCC
Gonzaga 81, Oregon State 61
Zags shot 63% inside arc, scored 1.46 ppp
Graham Ike scored 35 points, had 7 rebounds.
Beavers shot 10-18 on arc, only 36% inside arc.

Santa Clara 96, Washington State 92
Game was 49-49 at halftime.
Broncos have won eight in row, 12 of last 13 games.
Santa Clara shot 63.6% inside arc, scored 1.35 ppp.

Bracketology has WCC getting three teams in NCAA Tournament
Home teams have won 65.8% of WCC games, #3 in country.

— Atlantic 14
George Mason 60, Saint Joseph’s 52
St Joe’s led by 6 with 13:18 left in the game.
Hawks had 20 offensive rebounds, had 44-35 edge on boards.
Patriots are 9-2 in A-14, tied for second with VCU.

Saint Louis 82, La Salle 58
Billikens have won 17 in a row, are 11-0 in conference.
Saint Louis shot 13-30 on arc, shot 60.9% inside arc.
Saint Louis has a 61.1 eFG%, #2 in country.

Bracketology has A-14 as a one-bid league in NCAA Tournament
Home teams have won only 50.6% of A-14 games, #29 in country.

— Famous birthdays, February 8th
Nick Nolte, 85
Mary Steenburgen, 73
Marques Johnson, 70
Mary McCormack, 57
Alonzo Mourning, 56
Jamie Martin, 56
Susan Misner, 55
Julio Jones, 37
Klay Thompson, 36
Jared Triolo, 28

— MAC-Sun Belt challenge
Miami OH 90, Marshall 74
Miami led 41-17 late in first half.
RedHawks improved to 24-0 this season.
Miami is shooting 63% inside arc this year (#2 in country)

Southern Mississippi 66, Kent State 65
Kent State led by 9 with 6:59 left in the game.
Golden Flashes were only 8-18 on the foul line.
USM’s Isaac Taveras scored 16 points in 17:00 off the bench.

Sun Belt teams won 10 go the 13 games in this challenge Saturday.
Both of these leagues are one-bid leagues; the conference tournaments will be fun.

— Big X
TCU 84, Kansas State 82
K-State led by 10 with 5:26 left in the game.
TCU was 22-26 on foul line, Wildcats 5-8
Just third win in last nine games for the Horned Frogs.

Iowa State 72, Baylor 69
Iowa State shot 63.6% inside arc, had 37-25 edge on boards.
Cyclones have won five in a row, are 21-2, 8-2 in conference.
Three of Baylor’s five starters played all 40:00.

Bracketology has Big X getting 7 teams into the NCAA Tournament
Out of 31 leagues, Big X games have 6th-fastest tempo.

— Horizon
Wright State 73, Fort Wayne 68
Wright State shot 63.3% inside arc, had 39-24 edge on boards.
Raiders are 11-2 in last 13 games, after a 5-7 start.
Wright State leads Horizon by a game over Oakland.

Green Bay 76, Detroit 63
Green Bay never trailed, led by 18 early in second half.
Detroit shot only 31.4% inside the arc.
Green Bay is 14-12 this year; they were 4-28 last year.

Bracketology has Horizon as a one-bid league in NCAA Tournament
Horizon games have #3 eFG% in country; good offense/bad defense??

— Southern
East Tennessee State 87, VMI 70
Buccaneers shot 67.7% inside the arc.
ETSU has won three in row, 10 of last 12 games.
ETSU leads Wofforrd by a game, atop SoCon standings.

Citadel 78, Chattanooga 71
Citadel shot 69% inside the arc.
Citadel is 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
Chattanooga lost five of its last six games.

Bracketology has SoCon as a one-bid league in NCAA Tournament
43.9% of shots in So-Con games are 3’s, highest %age in country.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Sunday, February 8

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Super Bowl

Super Bowl
Patriots vs Seahawks (-4.5) (@ Santa Clara, CA)
Patriots (17-3)
Patriots are 16-1 SU/13-4 ATS in their last 17 games.
Last five games, New England allowed 10-10-3-16-7 points.
Last four games, Patriots have 16 sacks.
QB Maye is 20-12 as an NFL starter (3-0 in playoffs).
Vrabel is 73-51 as an NFL head coach (5-3 in playoffs).


Patriots are 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year.
New England covered five of its last six games.
Opponents’ team total: under 16-2 last 18 games
Over is 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
Patriots are in Super Bowl for first time in seven years.


Seahawks (16-3)
Seahawks are 9-0 SU/6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
Seahawks held six of last eight foes to 16 or fewer points.
Last three games, Seattle is +5 in turnovers.
Darnold is 51-42 as an NFL starter (2-1 in playoffs)
MacDonald is 26-10 as a head coach (2-0 in playoffs).


Seattle’s losses this year were by 4-3-2 points.
In its three losses, Seattle was minus-5 in turnovers.
Seattle is 7-3 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
Seahawks went over their team total 13 of last 18 games.
Opponents’ team total: under 12-6-1.


Underdogs covered last five Super Bowls (10-4 ATS last 14)
Seattle won 23-20 in OT at Foxboro last year.
Seahawks won last four series games.


Both QB’s, both head coaches are in their first Super Bowl in this role.
AFC teams are 9-4 SU in last 13 Super Bowls

NFL
Dunkel

Super Bowl

NFL

Super Bowl

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Trend Report
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Seattle VS New England
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games against New England.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against New England.
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games.
New England is 6-0 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 7 games against Seattle.


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[ozzy44]

Top NFL Things To Know​

Favorites Prevail​

Winning Outright
Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots and Rams all won outright in the Divisional Round — and all four were favorites.
Patriots and Seahawks won in the Conference Championship — and both were favorites.

This is the 3rd time since 1990 where favorites went 6-0 SU in the Divisional and Conference Championship, with 1991 and 2004, and the 6th time overall in the Super Bowl era. In the Super Bowl for those five previous seasons, the favorite went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, finishing the perfect end of the year for favorites.

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The Dog Streak​

Underdogs in the Super Bowl

Underdogs have excelled in the Super Bowl recently. Since 2004, they are 15-7 ATS and they have covered the spread in five straight Super Bowls dating back to 2020, including winning outright in three straight and 4 of the last 5 games.

The 5-game ATS win streak for underdogs in the Super Bowl is the longest in history.
The 3-game SU win streak for underdogs in the Super Bowl is tied for the 2nd-longest in history:
1981-84, 4
2023-25, 3
2012-14, 3
1969-71, 3

When the spread is 3 or more in the Super Bowl, the underdog is 13-4 ATS since 2001-02.

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The Longshot​

Futures in Effect
Patriots entered the season with 80-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, they were the longshot of the Final Four and they are now in the Super Bowl. In the last 50 years, they were the 11th team to reach a Conference Championship game with preseason odds of 80-1 or higher. Of those 11 teams, 7 lost in the Conference Championship and now four have made the Super Bowl:

• 2025 Patriots
• 2021 Bengals, 150-1 (lost)
• 2016 Falcons, 80-1 (lost)
• 1999 Rams, 150-1 (won)

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The Unexpected Super Bowl​

Ticket To Ride
From an odds standpoint, we have a pretty longshot Super Bowl. We haven't seen a Super Bowl where both teams entered the season both at 20-1 or longer since 2000-01 when the Ravens (22-1) beat the Giants (60-1) and it happened back-to-back years, with the Rams (150-1) and Titans (30-1) in 1999-00.

Since we moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978, we've only had four Super Bowls where the two teams Super Bowl odds entering the season combined for 100-1 or higher and Super Bowl 16 is the only other one featuring two teams who entered the year at 50-1 or higher:

Super Bowl 34: 150-1 Rams over 30-1 Titans
Super Bowl 56: 12-1 Rams over 150-1 Bengals
Super Bowl 60: 80-1 Patriots vs. 60-1 Seahawks
Super Bowl 16: 50-1 49ers over 60-1 Bengals

This is the first Super Bowl since 2003 (Patriots/Panthers) between teams that missed the playoffs the previous season.

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All Seattle Love​

Record High
The Seahawks are getting 61% of the betting tickets on the spread via Action Network. In the 23-year history of the Bet Labs database, which tracks bet pct in the Super Bowl, only seven teams have closed with 60%+ of tickets, they went 5-2 SU and ATS.

In that span, only two teams have even closed with 65%+ of tickets, the 2018-19 Patriots (beat Rams 13-3) at 66% of tickets and, the current record holder, the 2013-14 Broncos (lost to Seahawks 43-8) at 68% of tickets.

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Failing To Win​

ATS Loss Into Super Bowl
Patriots failed to cover the spread in the AFC Championship game vs. Broncos, winning by 3 and closing as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Seahawks covered the spread against the Rams.

Since the NFL merger in 1970, teams to fail to cover the spread in the Conference Championship game are 4-10 SU and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.

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Different Chalk​

Pedigree Isn't Everything
The Seahawks were favored by an average of 4.32 points per game this season, which slightly edged the Patriots, who were favored by 3.75 PPG this year. Over the last 22 years, the team that was the biggest favorite on average over the course of the season is 7-15 SU and 3-19 ATS in the Super Bowl (7-17 SU and 3-21 ATS over the last 24 years — since 2001). Before that stretch, these teams went 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS dating back to 1990.

On the other hand…

New England enters the Super Bowl with a slightly better SU win percentage (85%) than the Seahawks (84.2%) this season. In recent history, that hasn't boded well for the Patriots side since the team with the better win percentage is 1-17 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2003.

$$$: Fade Team w/ Better Win Pct in Super Bowl
the team's win percent differential is between -100 and -0.1
the week number or round is Super Bowl
$-1,591
WON
1-17-0
RECORD
6%
WIN%
View System
Here's one more angle: the team that won the Conference Championship with a shorter line than its opponent — in this example, Seahawks were -2.5 vs. Rams and Patriots were -3.5 vs. Broncos — so they side would be Seattle, those teams are 18-5 SU and 20-3 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2000-01.

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Quest For Kupp​

JSN's 1,700 Season
Jaxson-Smith Njigba finished the 2025 regular season with 1,793 receiving yards, most in the NFL — just the 15th season of 1,700+ receiving yards in the Super Bowl era. Of those previous 14 receivers, 11 either didn't make the playoffs or lost their first playoff game and only one other WR even made the Super Bowl…

Cooper Kupp in 2021 with Rams, who won it all and went on to win Super Bowl MVP … and is now a teammate of Jaxson-Smith Njigba.

1,700+ Rec Yds, Win 1+ Playoff Game
2025 Puka Nacua (L, Conf Champ)
2021 Cooper Kupp, LAR (W, Super Bowl)
2015 Antonio Brown, PIT (L, Divisional)

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First Experience​

To The Super Bowl
Drake Maye or Sam Darnold will officially be the 14th QB to win a Super Bowl in the same season they received their first playoff win and only six have done it over the last 30 years:

2021 Matthew Stafford, 2017 Nick Foles, 2010 Aaron Rodgers, 2007 Eli Manning, 2001 Tom Brady and 1999 Kurt Warner.

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Rest = Overrated​

Bye Bye Bye
The Seahawks had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Patriots didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t enter the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team that did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 4-13 SU and 2-14-1 ATS.

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New Blood​

Trojan Heel
Sam Darnold went to USC. Drake Maye went to North Carolina. Both schools have their first starting QB in Super Bowl history this year. The crazy part about USC: they have had 26 QBs selected in the NFL Draft, the most of any school.

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Staying Strong​

Fighting Back
Teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 19-34-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years, including 5-11 against the second-half spread since 2007-08 in the Super Bowl.

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Strength of Schedule​

What A Difference
Using Pro Football References full season Strength of Schedule, which indicates the combined win pct of the opponents the team played in a given year (higher SOS indicating a tougher schedule, lower indicating easier), here is where the Patriots and the Seahawks fall in.

Patriots: -4.49
• Only two teams in SB history have won it all with this easy of a SOS (1999-00 Rams and 1970-71 Colts). Teams with a -4 SOS or worse are actually 3-1 SU in the SB.

Seahawks: +1.61
• The Seahawks on the other hand have been through a gauntlet. Only 11 of 120 Super Bowl teams had a harder SOS than the Seahawks and they went 8-3 SU in the Super Bowl.

The 6.1 SOS difference is also the 2nd-highest of any Super Bowl in history, behind just the 1971 big game between the Colts (easier) and Cowboys (harder), where the Colts won it all.

If you just look at plain win pct for SOS, the Patriots own the 4th-easiest SOS for any team to reach the Super Bowl:
1999 Rams | .363 | Won, 23-16
1970 Colts | .364 | Won 16-13
1972 Dolphins | .367 | Won 14-7
2025 Patriots | .391 | ???

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Playing It Close​

Size Matters
Super Bowl 60 is set in Santa Clara, California. In terms of distance, the Seahawks will be the team closer to the Super Bowl site vs. the Patriots. In SB history, the team closer to the site of the game is 34-25 SU. In the last ten Super Bowl's the team closest to the site of the game has won 7 of 10 games.

The Super Bowl winner has been closer to the site of the game in 15 of the last 20 Super Bowls dating back to 2006.

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All Pace of Play​

Slow and Steady
The over/under in Super Bowl 60 got as high as 46.5 and is now down to 45.5. One of the reasons could be pace of play. This season, Patriots are running a snap every 28.8 seconds, while Seattle is every 28.6 seconds, the 3rd and 4th-slowest teams in the NFL.

Then you look at pct of plays running the ball this year, Seahawks are at 50%, 2nd to only the Bills and the Patriots are 5th on that list at 48% of plays. Even if you look at no-huddle play, Patriots are running it at just 2.1% of plays, lowest mark in the NFL.

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ATS Kings​

40 Years Later
• Seahawks: 14-5 ATS (73.7%)
• Patriots: 14-6 ATS (70%)

This is just the second Super Bowl where both teams have an ATS win pct of 70% or higher — the other was Super Bowl 20 between the Bears & Patriots in 1986

 

[ozzy44]

Super Bowl 60 Top 15 Betting Trends​

Trend #1 – The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-17-2 ATS (10.5%) in the last 28 Super Bowl games!

Trend #2 – Over the past 24 years, underdogs own an 18-6 ATS (75%) edge in the Super Bowl, including 14-4 ATS in the last 18

Trend #3 – The outright winner is 49-7-3 ATS (87.5%) in the 58 previous Super Bowls.

Trend #4 – Teams that hold an edge in at least three of four key statistical categories are 41-6 SU and 37-9-1 ATS (80.4% (Time of Possession, Rushing Yardage, Yards per Pass Attempt, and Turnover Differential)

Trend #5 – In the last 24 seasons, on 6-point teasers, there has been a huge separation as favorites are just 13-11 (54.2%) while underdogs are 21-3 (87.5%).

Trend #6 – New England is on an 11-4 ATS surge versus solid rushing defenses allowing less than 3.9 YPR

Trend #7 – Seattle is on a 33-17 Under the total surge, and New England is 30-20 Under the total in its last 50 games, with totals of 45 or higher

Trend #8 – New England is 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016

Trend #9 – Regarding the recent competitiveness of the Super Bowl game, of the only 19 games in history to be decided by less than a touchdown, 10 of them have been in the last 18 years.

Trend #10 – Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games, including Philadelphia a year ago. Seattle holds this slight edge by 1.6 PPG.

Trend #11 – Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in the last 14!

Trend #12 – NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-13 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.

Trend #13 – In the last 19 Super Bowl games in which bettors moved off of opening totals, they are 12-7 (63.2%).

Trend #14 – Over the total has converted in all seven head-to-head meetings between Seattle and New England since 2004

Trend #15 – Underdogs are 5-5 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the Seattle-New England series

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday, February 8​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
SEA at NE	06:30 PM	NE +4.5***** U 46.0*****	+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack
Last six Super Bowl champs (QB):
2025— Seahawks (Darnold)
2024— Eagles (Hurts)
2023— Chiefs (Mahomes)
2022— Chiefs (Mahomes)
2021— Rams (Stafford)
2020— Buccaneers (Brady)

Quote of the Day
“The only thing more powerful than hate is love.”
Benito Ocasio

Monday’s quiz
JJ McCarthy was the Vikings’ QB this year; Sam Darnold was their QB last year. Who was Minnesota’s QB in 2023?

Sunday’s quiz
Matt Hasselbeck was QB for the Seahawks, the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Saturday’s quiz
Sam Cunningham is the New England Patriots’ all-time leader in rushing yards.

*****************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up Super Bowl Sunday……​

— Seahawks 29, Patriots 13
Seattle wins their second Lombardi Trophy.
Kenneth Walker carried ball 27 times for 135 yards.
Jason Myers kicked five FG’s, outscored New England by himself.
Seahawks were +3 in turnovers, scored a defensive TD.

Patriots’ first nine drives: 38 plays, 79 yards, zero points.
Seattle’s first six drives: 42 plays, 183 yards, three FG’s.
Seahawks sacked Drake Maye six times, for 43 yards.
NE was first team since 1974 not to score in first 3 quarters of a Super Bowl

— Weird stat: last ten times New England was in the Super Bowl, they were outscored 27-3 in the first quarter of those games.

— Prop bet update: national anthem was done in 1:57, the under hits.

— I’m oblivious about certain things, and I had never watched the halftime show of any Super Bowl before. Before this week, I’d never heard of Bad Bunny, so I looked him up.
Real name: Benito Ocasio; he is 32 years old
For a while couple years ago, he was a pro wrestler.
He has helped make rap music more popular, world-wide.
During the halftime show, they had a couple on stage getting married, looked like it was part of the act, but apparently, that was an actual marriage ceremony that happened during halftime.

— Thursday night in Week 1 this coming September, Seahawks will be the home team.

— Jim Schwartz was defensive coordinator for the Browns this year; he interviewed for the head coach’s job in Cleveland when it opened, and when he didn’t get it, he bolted, even though he has two years left on his contract.

— Former Browns coach Kevin Stefanski was quickly hired by the Atlanta Falcons, who were 5-3 with Kirk Cousins starting this year, 3-6 when he didn’t start, but rumor has it that the Falcons are going to cut him this spring. If he gets cut, he won’t be on the market very long.

— Famous birthdays, February 9th:
Joe Pesci, 83
Jim Nash, 81
Vince Papale, 80
Judith Light, 77
Danny White, 74
Mookie Wilson, 70
John Kruk, 65
Todd Lyght, 57
Vladimir Guerrero Sr, 51
Michael B Jordan, 39
Saquon Barkley, 29
Cobie Durant, 28

— Joe Pompliano posted the following info:
The average TV ad for the Super Bowl was $8M
5-10 ads sold for as much as $10M
For 40% of advertisers, this was their first Super Bowl ads.
NBC requires brands to match the $$$ they spend on Super Bowl on other events too
All in all, NBC was expected to rake in $800M in advertising revenue.

— USC 77, Penn State 75
Freshman G Arenas scored the game-winning hoop with 0:00.7 left.
Penn State shot 60% inside arc, led by 12 early in second half.
Trojans have won three in row, prove to 18-6, 7-6 in conference.
USC. Penn State. Why the bleep are these teams in the same league?!?!?!

— Coastal Carolina 94, UMass 91, 3OT’s
UMass led by 14 with 14:39 left in regulation.
Chanticleers shot 16-34 on the arc, only 8-16 on foul line.
K’Jei Parker scored 31 points in 34:00 for UMass; he didn’t start.

— Texas Tech 70, West Virginia 63
Red Raiders never trailed, shot 13-24 on the arc.
Tech only used two subs, who played 12-3 minutes.
West Virginia shot 66.7% inside arc, 2-22 outside arc.
Tech improves to 17-6, 7-3 in Big X

— South Florida basketball coach Bryan Hodgson used to be an assistant coach at Fredonia State in western New York. I was the student manager of our basketball team in college; we played at Fredonia once, it is a long freakin’ way from Albany, about an hour west of Buffalo.
Very cold there; the young lady who sang the national anthem was very good, that’s all I can remember from that night, 45 or so years ago. Other than thinking, why would anyone want to live here for four years? It was like ten miles past the middle of nowhere.
But coach Hodgson became an assistant to Nate Oats at Buffalo, and moved up the ladder from there. He was 45-28 in two years at Arkansas State and this year his USF Bulls are 16-8, 8-3 in the AAC, so Hodgson is apparently a very good coach.

— North Dakota State is moving up to I-A football and will play in the Mountain West, starting this fall; the move is going to cost the school $17M. Bison have been D-I in basketball for couple decades, but this is a big jump for them.

— NBC is going back to broadcasting baseball this year; Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo are going to be their studio analysts.

— Pitchers and catchers report on Tuesday; let’s play ball!!!!