Cnotes 2021-2022 nhl trends, news, best bets and opinions thru the playoffs !

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Monday’s 6-pack:

Week 15 NFL spreads:
— Chiefs -3.5 @ Chargers
— Raiders @ Cleveland -6.5
— Patriots @ Indianapolis -2
— Washington @ Philadelphia -4
— Jets @ Miami -8.5
— Dallas -10.5 @ Giants

Quote of the Day
“The best way to teach your kids about taxes is by eating 30 percent of their ice cream.”
Bill Murray

Monday’s quiz
Which four colleges has Urban Meyer coached?

Sunday’s quiz
In the movie Casino, Don Rickles played one of Robert DeNiro’s henchmen.

Saturday’s quiz
Chris Paul played his college basketball at Wake Forest.

************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Cleveland 24, Baltimore 22:

— Lamar Jackson hurt his ankle on first play of 2nd quarter, didn’t return.
— Down 24-6 at half, Ravens had ball at midfield at end, with chance to win.
— Ravens were 1-12 on third down, Cleveland 6-13.
— Last five weeks, Ravens have one first half touchdown.

— Cleveland’s first four drives: 28 plays, 210 yards, 12 first downs, 17 points.
— Browns ran fumble back for TD in last minute of first half.
— Almost an epic collapse by the Browns; they led 24-3 at one point.
— Just fifth win for Browns in last 27 games vs Baltimore.

Dallas 27, Washington 20:
— Cowboys led this game 24-0 at halftime.
— Dallas had one offensive TD, on a 41-yard drive.
— Cowboys had a defensive TD that made score 18-0.
— Last 10 years, Dallas is 17-11 ATS in NFC East road games.
— Cowboys covered five of last seven visits here.

— Heinicke hurt his knee in 4th quarter, Chad Allen was QB at end.
— Washington had 34 total yards, 4 first downs in first half.
— Washington had 4 turnovers, converted 3-14 on third down.
— Washington is 4-10 ATS in last 14 NFC East home tilts.

Kansas City 48, Las Vegas 9:
— Chiefs ran fumble in for a TD on first play of the game.
— Raiders’ first six drives: 4 first downs, 3 turnovers, no points.
— Raiders lost five of last six games, outscored 102-54 in second half.
— Raiders converted only 22 of last 80 third down plays.
— Las Vegas is 5-9 ATS last 14 games coming off a loss.

— Chiefs won last five games, giving up 10.8 ppg.
— Chiefs outscored foes 91-16 in first half of those games.
— Kansas City is 7-0 if it allows 17 or less points, 2-4 if they allow more.
— Chiefs have 15 takeaways in last four games (+11)
— Kansas City won 15 of last 18 series games.

New Orleans 30, NJ Jets 9:
— Saints end their five-game losing skid.
— New Orleans ran ball for 203 yards
— Saints are 18-8 ATS last 26 games as road favorites.
— New Orleans is 7-4-1 ATS last 12 games vs AFC opponents.

— Jets lost five of their last six games.
— Jets gave up 34.4 ppg in their last eight games.
— Jets have been outscored 223-89 in first half this season.
— Jets are 15-26 ATS last 41 games coming off a loss.
— Last eight games, Jets are minus-11 in turnovers

Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 0:
— Jaguars lost five in row, 26 of their last 28 games.
— Jacksonville has eight losses by 10+ points.
— Jaguars have six TD’s on their last 67 drives.
— Jacksonville is minus-19 in turnovers (5-24)
— Jaguars are 8-17-1 ATS in last 25 games as road underdogs.
— Last five games, Jacksonville was outscored 103-28 in first half.
— 12 of their last 13 games stayed under the total.

— Tennessee had four INT’s, was +4 in turnovers.
— Jaguars ran ball eight times for 8 yards. For the whole game.
— Tennessee won 10 of last 11 series games.
— Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Nashville.

Atlanta 29, Carolina 21:
— Atlanta took lead for good on a pick-6 in second quarter.
— Falcons had 10-yard edge in field position.
— Atlanta is 5-2 if it allows 25 or less points, 1-5 if it gives up 26+.
— Falcons led eight of last 11 games at halftime.

— Carolina lost eight of last ten games after a 3-0 start.
— Carolina is 0-8 if it allows more than 14 points.
— Panthers are 7-13 ATS last 20 games as home favorites.
— Falcons are 5-1 ATS in last six visits to Charlotte.
— Last four Carolina games went over the total.

Seattle 33, Houston 13:
— Seahawks ran for 193 yards, threw for 260.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Seattle was 7-13 on third down, Houston 3-13.
— Seattle is 5-1 if it scores 28+ points, 0-7 if it doesn’t.

— Texans lost ten of their last eleven games.
— Game was 16-13 at halftime; Houston was blanked in 2nd half.
— Fairbairn kicked a 61-yard FG.
— Texans are 6-11 ATS last 17 games as home underdogs.
— Houston is 5-15 ATS last 20 games coming off a loss.

San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 23 OT
— 49ers led 20-6 with 10:00 left in game.
— Kittle caught 13 passes for 151 yards and a TD.
— Last five games, 49ers outscored opponents 95-51 in first half.
— 49ers won/covered four of their last five games.
— Last four games, 49ers are +7 in turnovers (11-4).

— Bengals had TD drives of 87-66 yards in 4th quarter, to force OT.
— Chase caught TD passes of 17-32 yards to end those drives.
— SF drove 75 yards in seven plays for TD after Cincy kicked FG in OT
— Bengals are 7-1 scoring 24+ points, 0-5 otherwise.
— Bengals lost four of last six games, after a 5-2 start.

Tampa Bay 33, Buffalo 27, OT
— Tampa Bay led 24-3 at halftime.
— Buffalo scored 17 points in last 9:07 to force OT.
— Perriman caught 58-yard TD pass from Brady to end game.
— Bills converted 2-13 on third down, Tampa Bay 8-16.
— Buccaneers are 8-3-1 as home favorites with Brady at QB.

— Bucs’ first five drives: 40 plays, 301 yards, 24 points.
— Bucs in rest of regulation: 31 plays, 121 yards, 3 points.
— Buffalo ran for 173 yards (9.1 yards/carry)
— Bills’ only 3/out the whole game was their one drive in OT.
— Buffalo QB Allen was wearing walking boot after game, will have MRI Monday.

Denver 38, Detroit 10:
— Detroit had 7 practice squad guys active, due to COVID issues.
— Lions were minus-2 in turnovers, averaged 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Detroit scored TD, kicked FG on its first three drives.
— Lions’ last six drives: 42 plays, 181 yards, no points.

— Denver ran for 184 yards, converted 8-12 on third down.
— Broncos were perfect in red zone (35 points/five drives)
— Denver is 6-1 if it scores 23+ points, 1-5 if it doesn’t.
— Denver gave up 16 or less points in its wins, 25.8 ppg in losses.

LA Chargers 37, NY Giants 21:
— Giants have been outscored 81-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Giants are 3-10 ATS in last 13 games vs AFC opponents.
— Last four games, Giants scored five TD’s on 42 drives.
— Giants trailed 37-7 with 5:00 left, scored two TD’s in garbage time.

— First nine drives, Chargers scored four TD’s, kicked three FG’s.
— LA outgained Giants 423-316, averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt.
— Chargers converted 25 of last 52 third down plays.
— Over is 4-1 in Chargers’ last five home games.
— LA is 6-1 when it scores 27+ points, 2-4 when it does not.

Green Bay 45, Chicago 30:
— Bears led this game 27-21 at halftime.
— Bears in 2nd half: 26 plays, 81 yards, 3 points.
— Chicago had TD plays of 46-54 yards, had 97-yard punt return for TD.
— Chicago lost seven of last eight games (1-7 ATS)
— Bears are 5-11 ATS in last sixteen road games.

— Packers’ last six drives: 39 plays, 295 yards, 31 points.
— Green Bay scored on pick-6 in 2nd quarter, to go up 14-10.
— Green Bay is 15-6 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
— Packers won/covered all six home games TY.
— Green Bay is 8-1-1 ATS this season, coming off a win.
 

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CALGARY is 8-0 ATS (8.3 Units) against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp in the current season.




NHL
Dunkel

Monday, December 13


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NHL

Monday, December 13


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Calgary @ Chicago
Calgary
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 12 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 14
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


CAR at MIN 08:00 PM
MIN -130
O 5.5
+500 +500

BUF at WIN 08:00 PM
WIN -260
O 5.5
+500 +500

STL at DAL 08:30 PM
DAL -160
+500

NYR at COL 09:00 PM
NYR +170
O 6.0
+500 +500

TOR at EDM 09:00 PM
EDM +105
O 6.5

+500 +500

CLB at VAN 10:00 PM
CLB +130
O 5.5

+500 +500

SEA at SJ 10:30 PM
SEA +125
O 5.5

+500 +500
 

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Armadillo Sports

Tuesday’s 6-pack:

Week 15 NFL spreads:
— Packers -4.5 @ Baltimore
— Titans -2 @ Pittsburgh
— Texans @ Jacksonville -3
— Falcons @ San Francisco -8.5
— Bengals @ Denver 1.5
— Vikings -3.5 @ Chicago

Quote of the Day
“That’s not a part of my job to worry about that. I play football. Guys in this locker room have done a great job of staying focused. I hate to even say that when we played like that because it doesn’t look like it, but really we’ve got a great locker room and everyone’s stayed together and stayed focused. We’re all just doing whatever we can to go try to win some games.”
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence

Tuesday’s quiz
Paul Giamatti is one of the stars of the Showtime series Billions; what was his late father very famous for?

Monday’s quiz
Urban Meyer was head coach at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, Ohio State.

Sunday’s quiz
In the movie Casino, Don Rickles played one of Robert DeNiro’s henchmen.

******************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) LA Rams 30, Arizona 23:
— Rams were missing five starters (COVID)
— Kupp caught 13 passes for 123 yards.
— Beckham caught six passes for 77 yards.
— Jefferson caught a 52-yard TD; his father is Arizona’s WR coach.
— Under McVay, LA is 7-3-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Murray threw for 383 yards, ran for 61 more, but threw two INTs.
— Arizona had two empty trips to the red zone.
— Cardinals are 7-0 SU on road, only 3-3 at home.
— Rams won ten of last 11 series games.
— LA covered its last seven visits to Arizona.

12) Was watching Houston-Alabama college basketball game the other night; #13 on Houston was getting lot of rebounds (he wound up with 13), but the TV analyst said something I’ve never heard before on a broadcast.

During a break in play, one of the refs came over to the TV table and asked how many rebounds number 13 on Houston had. Is he supposed to be thinking about that?

The game had a controversial ending on a goaltending (non-) call; Alabama won by a point; the Houston coaches turned a trash can over on the way off the floor, and tossed some folding chairs, creating a mess in one corner of the arena.

On his way to the locker room, one of the Houston players picked up the chairs, put the trash back in the trash can, and made himself a star on social media. Good for him.

11) NFL trends:
— Last three games, Steelers were outscored 61-6 in first half.
— Last three games, Houston was outscored 44-0 in second half.

10) SEC has six basketball teams in the nation’s top 25; unusual for them. kenpom.com has the SEC as the #3 conference this season, their highest ranking since 2007.

9) Arizona Wildcats are off to a 9-0 start, a top 10 team under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd; they have eight foreigners on their squad.

Do teams with lot of foreigners (Saint Mary’s fits into this category) play better on the road, since so many of their players are so far from home anyway? Just wondering.

8) FOX analyst Mark Schlereth was working an NFL game Sunday; he doesn’t like flea flickers- one teams ran three of them Sunday and Schlereth wasn’t having it. He was a lineman in his playing days, so he prefers smashmouth football to trickery.

7) Buffalo Bills have seven wins by 15+ points, but they’re 0-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.

6) Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is the first QB ever to have 30+ touchdown passes in his first two seasons in the NFL.

5) Have been hearing lot of rumbling about Chicago Bears’ coach Matt Nagy, so I looked up some numbers:
— Bears under Nagy: 32-29, two playoff berths.
— Bears in the four years before Nagy: 19-45

This will the Chicago’s first losing season under Nagy; they’ve started a rookie QB in nine of their 13 games (2-7).

Too much change can be a bad thing. Bears dumped Lovie Smith; he went 29-19 in his last three years as head coach, then they missed the playoffs the next five years, until Nagy got them there.

That said, maybe the guy who drafted Mitch Trubisky instead of Patrick Mahomes should be nervous about his job— he is still the Bears’ GM.

4) Chicago Bulls’ next two games have been postponed; ten Bulls are on the COVID list.

3) College quarterbacks in the transfer portal:
— Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler- transferred to South Carolina
— USC’s Kevon Slovis
— Auburn’s Bo Nix

2) Eddie George ran for 10,441 yards in NFL career, scoring 78 touchdowns; these days, he is the head coach at Tennessee State. His defensive coordinator at Tennessee State is Brandon Fisher, whose father Jeff was George’s coach with the Titans.

Tennessee State’s tight ends coach is Cody Harkey, who played tight end for the Rams for five years under Jeff Fisher.

1) I’m flipping channels the other day, and there is a chess tournament on; when I was in junior high, I loved chess, was halfway decent at it. Chess does not make for good TV, but it is a very interesting game.

By the way, there is a chess app on my phone now, and I pretty much suck at it. Apparently I was much smarter when I was 12.
 

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VEGAS are 40-13 ATS (20.6 Units) against poor defensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp over the last 2 seasons.

NEW JERSEY is 1-14 ATS (-14.9 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the current season.

PITTSBURGH is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

LOS ANGELES are 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive home wins in the last 3 seasons.

FLORIDA is 14-1 ATS (12.9 Units) in home games first half of the season in the current season.

DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (9.2 Units) in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

BUFFALO is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) after scoring 2 goals or less in 4 straight games in the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games in the current season.

ST LOUIS are 31-48 ATS (-21.8 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread in the last 3 seasons.

TORONTO is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) in road games against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons.

NY RANGERS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after playing a home game in the current season.

COLUMBUS are 6-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. losing teams in the current season.

SEATTLE is 4-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.
 

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NHL

Tuesday, December 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vegas @ Boston
Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vegas's last 6 games
Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games

Ottawa @ Florida
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Florida
Ottawa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida
Florida is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home
Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa

New Jersey @ Philadelphia
New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games on the road
New Jersey is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

Montreal @ Pittsburgh
Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

NY Islanders @ Detroit
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Islanders's last 5 games
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Carolina @ Minnesota
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Carolina
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Buffalo @ Winnipeg
Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

St. Louis @ Dallas
St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

NY Rangers @ Colorado
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
NY Rangers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games at home

Toronto @ Edmonton
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Edmonton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto

Columbus @ Vancouver
Columbus
Columbus is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Columbus is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver
Vancouver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games at home

Seattle @ San Jose
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
San Jose
San Jose is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Jose's last 18 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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TUESDAY, DECEMBER 14
Game Time(ET) Pick Units


MON at PIT 07:00 PM
MON +235
U 5.5

+500 +500

VEG at BOS 07:00 PM
BOS -135
O 5.5
+500 +500

LA at TB 07:00 PM
TB -200
U 5.5
+500 +500

OTT at FLA 07:00 PM
FLA -300
O 6.5
+500 +500

NJ at PHI 07:00 PM
PHI -125
U 5.5
+500 +500

NYI at DET 07:30 PM
NYI -120
U 5.5
+500 +500

CAR at MIN
MIN -130
O 5.5
+500 +500

BUF at WIN 08:00 PM
WIN -260
O 5.5
+500 +500

STL at DAL 08:30 PM
DAL -160
U 5.5
+500 +500

NYR at COL 09:00 PM
NYR +170
O 6.0

+500 +500

TOR at EDM 09:00 PM
EDM +105
O 6.5

+500 +500

CLB at VAN 10:00 PM
CLB +130
O 5.5

+500 +500

SEA at SJ 10:30 PM
SEA +125
O 5.5

+500 +500
 

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DECEMBER NHL OPINONS AND BEST BETS

Date W-L-T % Units

12/14/2021.........9-14-1..........39.58%..........-50.00
12/12/2021...........3-7-0..........30.00%..........-26.25
12/11/2021...........7-5-0..........58.33%..........+3.75
12/10/2021...........4-6-0...........42.86%.........-21.25
12/09/2021...........5-6-0...........45.45%.........-10.00
12/08/2021...........5-2-0...........71.43%.......+12.75
12/07/2021...........5-3-0...........57.14%.........+8.50
12/06/2021...........5-1-1...........83.33%........+19.50
12/05/2021...........3-3-1...........50.00%...........-6.25
12/04/2021...........8-1-0...........88.89%........+28.25
12/03/2021...........5-3-0...........62.50%..........+8.50
12/02/2021...........5-8-0...........38.46%..........-29.50
12/01/2021 ..........5-3-0 ..........62.50% ..........+9.00


TOTALS:.............69-62-1..........52.67%............- 53.00

********************************

BEST BETS:

12/14/2021............8-8-1................50.00%...........-2.75
12/12/2021............1-4-0................20.00%...........-17.00
12/11/2021............3-3-0................50.00%...........+1.00
12/10/2021............3-4-0................42.85%............- 7.00
12/09/2021............2-4-0................33.33%............-12.00
12/08/2021............2-1-0...............66.66%.............+4.50
12/07/2021............2-0-0.............100.00%.............+10.00
12/06/2021............1-0-0.............100.00%.............+ 5.00
12/05/2021............2-1-1...............66.66%.............+ 4.50
12/04/2021............3-0-0.............100.00%.............+15.00
12/03/2021............3-2-0...............60.00%...............+5.00
12/02/2021............3-8-0...............27.27%...............-27.00
12/01/2021............1-5-0...............16.66%..............- 20.50


TOTALS:..............34-40-0...............45.94%...............-41.25


UPDATED 12/14/2021
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:

College basketball’s fastest paced teams:
1) Charleston
2) Marshall
3) Arizona
4) New Mexico
5) Marquette
7) Cornell

Quote of the Day
“A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.”
Albert Einstein

Wednesday’s quiz
Stephen Curry’s dad Dell is a broadcaster for which NBA team?

Tuesday’s quiz
Paul Giamatti is one of the stars of the Showtime series Billions; his late father was Bart Giamatti, the baseball commissioner who banned Pete Rose for gambling.

Monday’s quiz
Urban Meyer was head coach at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, Ohio State.

*****************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

13) I would recommend that NFL Films do a feature on scouts, maybe even a Hard Knocks-type series where they follow various scouts to obscure places around the country.

NFL Draft is a fascinating process; 32 teams, worth an average of $3B each- selecting players is obviously a huge part of who wins/who loses. Scouts do the dirty work in recommending which players should be taken.

— Cooper Kupp went to I-AA Eastern Washington
— Carson Wentz, Trey Lance both went to I-AA North Dakota State.
— Greg Zuerlein went to D-II Missouri Western.
— Ryan Fitzpatrick went to I-AA Harvard.
— Jerry Rice went to I-AA Mississippi Valley State

There are good ballplayers everywhere; great scouting helps teams win.

12) Las Vegas will not only host the NFL Draft in April, they’re hosting the Super Bowl two years from now. I’m guessing hotel room prices on the Strip will be very reasonable that week.

Or not.

11) So far this season in the NFL, there have been 17 overtime games in the NFL; home teams are 8-8-1 in those games (so are road teams).

As far as games that ended in regulation, road team has 96 wins, home teams 92.

10) NFL will have a playoff game on TV Monday night, January 17; I’m queasy about them putting that game in Lambeau Field, if Green Bay doesn’t get the NFC’s #1 seed. A playoff game should not be played at night in Green Bay, Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh.

9) Nevada football coach Jay Norvell bolted to league rival Colorado State, which is a kick in the teeth to the Nevada program; now QB Carson Strong has opted out of Wolf Pack’s bowl game with Western Michigan, so he doesn’t get hurt before the NFL Draft.

Tough end to an 8-4 season for Nevada.

8) Weird stat: Kyler Murray has thrown nine INT’s this season; five of them came on the first series of the second half. You wonder if that is a random happening, or are they making bad adjustments at halftime? Or not making adjustments at all.

7) Memphis 92, Alabama 78:
— Alabama wants to play fast, but Memphis likes the fast game.
— Alabama-Houston game late Saturday night may have taken some steam out of the Crimson Tide, but that is what the NCAA tournament is like, big games 48 hours apart.

Memphis has a freshman, Emoni Bates, who is 17 years old- he turns 18 next month. In a normal, non-basketball world, Bates would be a junior in high school. He is so young, he can’t go into the NBA Draft until 2023.

My question is this: Is it a good thing for the young man to go away to college at age 17? I’m not saying it is or it isn’t, but you wonder if he’ll wind up playing in the G-League before he makes his way to the NBA. Some things can’t be rushed.

6) Arizona State 58, Creighton 57:
— Sun Devils were down 8 early in second half.
— ASU wins third game in row, after a 2-6 start.

5) Kansas/Indiana will have a home/home basketball series, starting next year, Don’t see a lot of that; most of the elite matchups happen on neutral courts, but maybe this is a better way for the schools to make more $$$, with big-time games in campus arenas.

4) Last four games, Cleveland Browns have been outscored 57-7 in second half.

3) We live in a fickle society; people are with you win or tie, and they’re not that crazy about ties.

Rams went 0-3 in November, and the front office and QB Stafford were getting ripped on social media; they get a big win in Arizona Monday night, and there is a segment on SportsCenter about how great Stafford is.

17 football games is a long season; we need to let things play out before we make judgements.

2) Four weeks left in the NFL regular season, no bye weeks left.

1) Somewhere in this great land of ours, people will wager on the Texans-Jaguars game Sunday, two horrific division rivals facing off.

It is a bad idea to bet on bad teams, even if they’re playing another bad team. It is just a bad idea.

Speaking of the Texans, haven’t heard about Deshaun Watson lately; they have to trade him after this season, right? They can net a bonanza of draft picks by dealing him, and Lord knows the Texans need a roster overhaul.

Which gets me back to my NFL Films idea; when they follow the scouts around for TV; once the Texans trade Watson, they’ll be the focus of the 2023 Draft. Those are the scouts you follow, to see if Houston can replenish its roster and become a halfway decent team.
 

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Messages
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WASHINGTON is 14-1 ATS (13.1 Units) in road games against poor defensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp over the last 2 seasons.

NY RANGERS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp in the current season.

ANAHEIM is 9-33 ATS (-27.3 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.




NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, December 15


b4b3dYl.png





NHL

Wednesday, December 15


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington @ Chicago
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 10 games
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Washington
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

NY Rangers @ Arizona
NY Rangers
NY Rangers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Rangers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 9 games at home
Arizona is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing NY Rangers

Seattle @ Anaheim
Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games
Anaheim
Anaheim is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Anaheim is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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Messages
104,273
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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 15
Game Time(ET) Pick Units

WAS at CHI 08:00 PM
WAS -135
O 5.5
+500 +500

NYR at ARI 09:00 PM
NYR -220
+500

SEA at ANA 10:00 PM
ANA -150
U 5.5
+500 +500
 

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Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,273
Tokens
DECEMBER NHL OPINONS AND BEST BETS

Date W-L-T % Units

12/15/2021..........4-1-0...........80.00%........+13.25
12/14/2021.........9-14-1..........39.58%..........-50.00
12/12/2021...........3-7-0..........30.00%..........-26.25
12/11/2021...........7-5-0..........58.33%..........+3.75
12/10/2021...........4-6-0...........42.86%.........-21.25
12/09/2021...........5-6-0...........45.45%.........-10.00
12/08/2021...........5-2-0...........71.43%.......+12.75
12/07/2021...........5-3-0...........57.14%.........+8.50
12/06/2021...........5-1-1...........83.33%........+19.50
12/05/2021...........3-3-1...........50.00%...........-6.25
12/04/2021...........8-1-0...........88.89%........+28.25
12/03/2021...........5-3-0...........62.50%..........+8.50
12/02/2021...........5-8-0...........38.46%..........-29.50
12/01/2021 ..........5-3-0 ..........62.50% ..........+9.00


TOTALS:.............73-63-1..........53.67%............- 39.25

********************************

BEST BETS:

12/15/2021............2-0-0..............100.00%..........+10.00
12/14/2021............8-8-1................50.00%...........-2.75
12/12/2021............1-4-0................20.00%...........-17.00
12/11/2021............3-3-0................50.00%...........+1.00
12/10/2021............3-4-0................42.85%............- 7.00
12/09/2021............2-4-0................33.33%............-12.00
12/08/2021............2-1-0...............66.66%.............+4.50
12/07/2021............2-0-0.............100.00%.............+10.00
12/06/2021............1-0-0.............100.00%.............+ 5.00
12/05/2021............2-1-1...............66.66%.............+ 4.50
12/04/2021............3-0-0.............100.00%.............+15.00
12/03/2021............3-2-0...............60.00%...............+5.00
12/02/2021............3-8-0...............27.27%...............-27.00
12/01/2021............1-5-0...............16.66%..............- 20.50


TOTALS:..............36-40-0...............47.36%...............-31.25


UPDATED 12/15/2021
 

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Messages
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Armadillo Sports

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College basketball’s slowest paced teams:
358) Virginia
357) Texas
356) Chattanooga
355) North Texas
354) Southern Illinois
353) Villanova

Quote of the Day
“My door is always open to talk about playing time. If you want to talk about playing time, be prepared for the truth.”
Brad Stevens

Thursday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Giants, last time they made the NFL playoffs?

Wednesday’s quiz
Stephen Curry’s dad Dell is a broadcaster for the Charlotte Hornets.

Tuesday’s quiz
Paul Giamatti is one of the stars of the Showtime series Billions; his late father was Bart Giamatti, the baseball commissioner who banned Pete Rose for gambling.

*********************************

Thursday’s Den: Studying up on college basketball……..

13) Southern Conference:

— Three teams in top 120, none in top 100.
— Chattanooga is highest-rated team so far.
— Furman has already played four OT games (3-1)

12) Conference USA:
— UAB, Louisiana Tech are the two top 100 teams right now.
— 7-4 Marshall plays #2 pace in country; they’re coached by Dan D’Antoni, Mike D’Antoni’s brother.
— North Texas had 79 wins in McCasland’s first four years as coach; they’re 6-3 this year, forcing turnovers 21.9% of time this year (#63)

11) Missouri Valley:
— 9-2 Loyola Chi is far and away the favorite in this league.
— #82 Drake has 70 wins the last three years; they’re 6-4 this year vs schedule #141.
— #69 Missouri State won its last three games, after a shaky 4-4 start.

10) Atlantic 14:
— St Bonaventure, Davidson, Richmond are three best teams.
— #92 Dayton won six of last seven games; they’re least experienced team in country.
— Last six years, Bonnies are 73-32 in A-14 games; how has some big $$$ school not come in and hired coach Mark Schmidt away???

9) Mountain West:
— #38 Colorado State is 10-0, with wins over Creighton, Saint Mary’s, Miss State. Rams are making 43.8% of their 3’s, best in country.
— San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State are next best teams in league.
— San Jose State is 5-4 under new coach Miles; they were 20-93 the last four years, so they’re a much-improved team.

8) West Coast:
— Gonzaga is obviously the king of this league (143-10 last eight years in WCC)
— San Francisco is 10-0, BYU 8-2, Saint Mary’s 10-2; the Zags have challengers.
— Santa Clara lost five of last seven games, after a 5-0 start.

7) American:
— #5 Houston is 9-2, with losses to Wisconsin/Alabama by 1-2 points.
— Central Florida, Wichita State, Cincinnati, SMU will challenge Houston.
— #33 Memphis (6-4) is loaded with talent, but has chemistry issues.

6) Pac-12:
— USC/UCLA are a combined 18-1; LA rivals are both very strong.
— Arizona has a new coach, 8 foreign players; they’re off to a 9-0 start.
— Oregon State was in Elite 8 LY, but the wheels have come off this year. Beavers have lost nine games in row, have five losses to teams outside top 100.

5) ACC:
— Right now, Duke is only ACC team ranked in top 25 by KenPom.
— North Carolina is 8-2 under new coach Davis; they play UCLA Saturday.
— Syracuse is 5-5, has #238 eFG% defense; they’ll be a bubble team.

4) Big East:
— League has only four teams ranked in top 50; little down this year?
— Villanova is 1-3 vs top 50 teams; they’re 114-27 in conference games since the league re-aligned eight years ago.
— UConn, Seton Hall, Xavier figure to be Villanova’s biggest challengers this year,

3) SEC:
— SEC is #3 league right now, their highest ranking since they were #2 in ’07.
— Lot of good teams; eight teams in top 41. Right now, Kentucky is ranked 5th in SEC
— Alabama coach Nate Oats was a high school coach in Michigan for 11 years.

2) Big 14:
— Minnesota is a surprising 9-1, with a totally re-tooled roster.
— Purdue, Ohio State have been best teams so far.
— Iowa lost last three games, giving up 79 ppg, after a 7-0 start.

1) Big X:
— Iowa State is 10-0, is still ranked 8th in a 10-team league.
— Defending national champ Baylor is 9-0; they whacked Villanova 56-37 Sunday.
— Kansas is quietly 8-1, with only loss by a point to Dayton.
 

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DETROIT is 2-21 ATS (-21.1 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days in the last 3 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 16-1 ATS (14.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

MONTREAL is 0-9 ATS (-9.8 Units) against poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game in the current season.

FLORIDA is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

NEW JERSEY is 1-15 ATS (-15.9 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the current season.

NY ISLANDERS are 1-11 ATS (-11.6 Units) vs. winning teams in the current season.

BUFFALO is 4-27 ATS (-22.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NASHVILLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games in the current season.

COLUMBUS are 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs in the last 3 seasons.

VANCOUVER is 232-249 ATS (37.2 Units) in road games against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances since 2015.
 

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Messages
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NHL

Thursday, December 16


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit @ Carolina
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Los Angeles @ Florida
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida
Florida
Florida is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

Philadelphia @ Montreal
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Montreal
Montreal is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home

Vegas @ New Jersey
Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Vegas's last 8 games on the road
Vegas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Jersey's last 10 games

Ottawa @ Tampa Bay
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ottawa's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Ottawa is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing at home against Ottawa

Boston @ NY Islanders
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston's last 8 games
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston

Buffalo @ Minnesota
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Colorado @ Nashville
Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville
Nashville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nashville's last 10 games when playing Colorado

Columbus @ Edmonton
Columbus
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Columbus
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Columbus

Vancouver @ San Jose
Vancouver
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
San Jose
San Jose is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Vancouver
San Jose is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing Vancouver


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

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Messages
104,273
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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 16
Game Time(ET) Pick Units

PHI at MON 07:00 PM
PHI -170
O 5.5
+500 +500

LA at FLA 07:00 PM
FLA -150
+500

DET at CAR 07:00 PM
CAR -180
+500

OTT at TB 07:00 PM
TB -240
+500

VEG at NJ 07:00 PM
VEG -170
O 6.0
+500 +500

BOS at NYI 07:30 PM
NYI -130
+500

BUF at MIN 08:00 PM
MIN -320
O 6.0
+500 +500

COL at NAS 08:00 PM
COL -165
O 6.0
+500 +500

VAN at SJ 10:30 PM
O 5.5
+500
 

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,273
Tokens
DECEMBER NHL OPINONS AND BEST BETS

Date W-L-T % Units

12/16/2021..........7-6-0...........53.85%.........-16.25
12/15/2021..........4-1-0...........80.00%........+13.25
12/14/2021.........9-14-1..........39.58%..........-50.00
12/12/2021...........3-7-0..........30.00%..........-26.25
12/11/2021...........7-5-0..........58.33%..........+3.75
12/10/2021...........4-6-0...........42.86%.........-21.25
12/09/2021...........5-6-0...........45.45%.........-10.00
12/08/2021...........5-2-0...........71.43%.......+12.75
12/07/2021...........5-3-0...........57.14%.........+8.50
12/06/2021...........5-1-1...........83.33%........+19.50
12/05/2021...........3-3-1...........50.00%...........-6.25
12/04/2021...........8-1-0...........88.89%........+28.25
12/03/2021...........5-3-0...........62.50%..........+8.50
12/02/2021...........5-8-0...........38.46%..........-29.50
12/01/2021 ..........5-3-0 ..........62.50% ..........+9.00


TOTALS:.............80-69-1..........53.69%............- 55.50

********************************

BEST BETS:

12/16/2021............3-2-0................60.00%..........+4.00
12/15/2021............2-0-0..............100.00%..........+10.00
12/14/2021............8-8-1................50.00%...........-2.75
12/12/2021............1-4-0................20.00%...........-17.00
12/11/2021............3-3-0................50.00%...........+1.00
12/10/2021............3-4-0................42.85%............- 7.00
12/09/2021............2-4-0................33.33%............-12.00
12/08/2021............2-1-0...............66.66%.............+4.50
12/07/2021............2-0-0.............100.00%.............+10.00
12/06/2021............1-0-0.............100.00%.............+ 5.00
12/05/2021............2-1-1...............66.66%.............+ 4.50
12/04/2021............3-0-0.............100.00%.............+15.00
12/03/2021............3-2-0...............60.00%...............+5.00
12/02/2021............3-8-0...............27.27%...............-27.00
12/01/2021............1-5-0...............16.66%..............- 20.50


TOTALS:..............39-42-0...............48.14%...............-27.25


UPDATED 12/16/2021
 

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Jun 22, 2009
Messages
16,819
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Armadillo Sports

Friday’s 6-pack:

College basketball’s unbeaten teams:
10-0 Arizona
9-0 Baylor
10-0 Colorado State
10-0 Iowa State
10-0 LSU
10-0 San Francisco
11-0 USC

Quote of the Day
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin

Friday’s quiz
In the classic movie Rocky, how much money was Rocky Balboa paid for his first fight against Apollo Creed?

Thursday’s quiz
Ben McAdoo was coach of the New Jersey Giants, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2016.

Wednesday’s quiz
Stephen Curry’s dad Dell is a broadcaster for the Charlotte Hornets.

************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..

13) Chiefs 34, Chargers 28, OT
— Chiefs drove 75 yards to tie game with 1:16 left in regulation.
— Chiefs drove 75 yards to win game on first drive of OT.
— Hill caught 12 passes for 148 yards, one TD.
— Kelce caught 10 passes for 191 yards, two TD’s.
— Chiefs covered eight of last nine road games vs Chargers.

— Chargers had three empty trips to red zone.
— LA ran ball for 192 yards, had 19-yard edge in field position.
— Bolts are 7-11-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win
— Last nine games, Chargers allowed 29.7 points/game.
— Over is 6-2 in Chargers’ last eight games.

12) After midnight Wednesday night, Jacksonville Jaguars fired coach Urban Meyer, who was 2-11 in his first season as an NFL coach (he is 187-32 as a college coach).

Darrell Bevell takes over as interim coach for Jacksonville; he was interim coach in Detroit last year, going 3-1 ATS. We’ll see if the Jaguars play better for a different coach.

When Meyer was on TV before coaching the Jaguars, I actually felt bad for him; the guy seemed incapable of humor. You figure on TV, anyone will lighten up some, yuk it up a little, but Meyer never seemed to smile. It was a little odd.

First time I saw him smile was earlier this fall, when that lady was giving him a lap dance in a bar after he stayed behind in Ohio after the Jaguars lost in Cincinnati. I’m guessing Mrs Meyer wasn’t smiling.

11) Shahid Khan owns the Jaguars; he got wealthy by inventing the seamless bumper for pickup trucks. He is a smart guy and a really rich guy, but hiring Meyer as an NFL coach turned out to be an awful idea, seeing how Meyer had no NFL experience and is apparently a cruddy person. Who kicks the team’s kicker when the guy is stretching before practice?

When Rams’ owner Georgia Frontiere passed away, before he bought the Jaguars, Khan tried to buy the Rams; thank the Lord Stan Kroenke bought the team instead. Rams were in St Louis back then; now they’re playing in a great stadium in Los Angeles. Kroenke is an excellent owner.

10) Who will replace Meyer in Jacksonville? Since they’ve got a young QB (Trevor Lawrence), a guy with an offense-based background seems logical. Eric Bieniemy? Byron Leftwich? Josh McDaniels? How about Buffalo OC Brian Daboll? He’s worked wonders with Josh Allen.

9) Speaking of the Rams’ great stadium, it’ll be a busy weekend at SoFi Stadium:
— Thursday- Chiefs-Chargers
— Saturday- Oregon State-Utah State bowl game
— Sunday- Seahawks-Rams

8) Cleveland Browns are playing the Raiders Saturday afternoon, but apparently their top two QB’s have both tested positive for COVID. With Mayfield/Keenum looking like they won’t be playing Saturday, Nick Mullens (5-11 as a starter with the 49ers) would be Cleveland’s QB. No freakin’ idea who his backup would be.

7) The COVID issues are making practice squads more important than they’ve ever been, and make the GM’s job more important too. Quality depth is more essential than it ever has been.

6) New Orleans Pelicans beat Oklahoma City 113-110 the other night, when Devonte’ Graham nailed a 61-foot heave from the backcourt as time expired. Interesting to see reactions from the other players when a shot like that goes in.

5) Danny Ainge is new CEO of the Utah Jazz; a college star at BYU and a guy who played in both the NBA and major leagues (Blue Jays), Ainge worked in the Celtics’ front office for 17 years; he scored 11.964 points in his 15-year NBA playing career.

4) One of the fascinating bowl matchups will be Texas Tech-Mississippi State, mostly because Mike Leach used to coach Texas Tech. When the Red Raiders fired him in 2009, there was a dispute about the $2.15M that Leach claimed (and still claims) that Tech owes him.

Tech is changing coaches again; they’re 70-72 since they fired Leach. Given the chance, I’m betting Leach will run up the score on his former employers.

3) Tech replaced Leach with Tommy Tuberville, who is somehow now a US Senator; go figure. Kliff Kingsbury then went 35-40 when he replaced Tuberville; Kingsbury is doing way better in the NFL than he did at Tech.

2) Pitt Panthers had a terrific 11-2 season, but now QB Kenny Pickett is skipping Pitt’s bowl game, so he doesn’t get hurt before the NFL Draft. Oy.

Not sure what NFL executives think about this, but if it was me, I’d be dropping any QB on my draft board who deserted his teammates before a season was over.

Remember Al Pacino’s speech from Any Given Sunday?

“You’re a goddamn quarterback! You know what that means? It’s the top spot, kid. It’s the guy who takes the fall. It’s the guy everybody’s looking at first – the leader of a team – who will support you when they understand you. Who will break their ribs and their noses and their necks for you, because they believe. ‘Cause you make them believe. That’s a quarterback.”

Quarterbacks shouldn’t bolt a team before their bowl game.

1) On the other end of the spectrum, Florida Gators’ QB Emory Jones will play in Florida’s bowl game, but then will hit the transfer portal, which is a little weird. Almost like his bowl game will be an audition tape for any teams looking for a QB next year.

Jones threw for 2,563 yards, 19 TD’s and 13 INTs this year. He ran for 768 yards and four TD’s as Florida finished 6-6- coach Dan Mullen got fired.
 

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