Cnotes 2020 Playoff's News. Trends. Picks !

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 4
Patrick Everson


LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers shifted to 8.5-point favorites for Game 3 of the NBA Finals after opening -10 at FanDuel Sportsbook.


NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, set for Sunday night. The Los Angeles Lakers are already up 2-0 in the best-of-7 series, so the Miami Heat are pretty much in must-win mode.


Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.


NBA line movement


The Lakers led Game 2 by 14 at halftime and kept the at arm’s length the rest of the way in a 124-114 victory. FanDuel Sportsbook followed by making Los Angeles a 10-point favorite, but that line shifted to -8.5 by Saturday afternoon.


After missing Game 2, Heat forward Bam Adebayo (shoulder) expects to be back for the 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff, likely contributing to a little more optimism from Miami backers. Goran Dragic missed Game 2 with a foot injury, and his status is uncertain for Game 3.


NBA public betting


Game 3 is drawing two-way action at FanDuel, with the Lakers getting 53 percent of tickets and the Heat taking 56 percent of money through Saturday afternoon. The total remained at the opener of 218.5, even though FanDuel was seeing 84 percent of bets and 93 percent of money on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

705LA LAKERS -706 MIAMI
LA LAKERS are 42-25 ATS (14.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Sunday, October 4

LA Lakers @ Miami


Game 705-706
October 4, 2020 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
127.244
Miami
124.139
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 3
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 9 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+9 1/2); Under








NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, October 4


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA LAKERS (66 - 22) vs. MIAMI (56 - 34) - 10/4/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 40-32 ATS (+4.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Sunday, October 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

Game 3 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson


Following an impressive 124-114 victory in Game 2 on Friday evening to earn his first 2-0 lead in 10 NBA Finals appearances, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will look to gain a three-game advantage against the Miami Heat in the bubble on Sunday night.


Betting Resources


Matchup: NBA Finals Game 3
Series: Lakers lead 2-0
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC


Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)


Line Movements


The Lakers have now won the first two games of this series by double digits, but the oddsmakers in Las Vegas are projecting Frank Vogel’s team to come up just short of that mark on Sunday evening – setting the spread for Game 3 at Los Angeles -8.5.


‘Over’ tickets cashed in a big way in Game 2, as Los Angeles and Miami combined for 238 points on Sunday night. The oddsmakers have elected to stick to their guns with the ‘over-under’ though – leaving the line at OU 218.5.


Spread: Los Angeles -8.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -380 Miami +320
Total: 218.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -6000, Miami +1600


Game 2 Recap


The odds were stacked against Erik Spoelstra’s team from the jump on Sunday night, as Miami’s Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo were both sidelined due to injuries suffered during Game 1.


Even with Bam out of the lineup, the Heat appeared content sitting back in a 2-3 zone and allowing Los Angeles to fire as many longballs off as they pleased in this contest, and the Lakers took what they were given – LAL putting up 47 3-point attempts, compared to Miami’s 27.


Adebayo was also clearly missed in the rebounding department in Miami’s last contest, as the Lakers finished +10 on the offensive boards.


King James and Anthony Davis were both spectacular for a second straight NBA Finals victory for Los Angeles, combining for 65 of their team’s 124 points.


The Lakers appear to be firing on all cylinders right now after winning and covering in back-to-back Finals matchups. They will look to keep it going on Sunday night.


Game 2 Betting Results


Outcome: Lakers 124 Heat 114


The Lakers jumped out to a big lead at halftime but the Heat hung around with a big third quarter and managed to cover as double-digit underdogs.


The offensive units only combined for 52 points in the first quarter but the pair got the 'over' on track for an easy win with 70 and 74 points in the second and third quarter respectively.


Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (-10.5), Over 216.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (29-23), Lakers Cover (-2), Under 54.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (68-54), Lakers Cover (-6), Over 112
Second-Half: Heat Win (60-56), Heat Cover (+1.5), Over 109


Los Angeles Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 17-8 SU, 11-13-1 ATS, 12-13 O/U
Playoffs: 14-3 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U


Los Angeles’ willingness to shoot the longball against Miami’s zone defense has been incredible as they continue to shatter Lakers post-season franchise records for 3-point shot attempts by jacking up 38 more shots from long-range on Friday night.


King James was just short of a triple-double yet again in Game 2, tallying 33 points, 9 rebounds, and 9 assists in the Laker victory – landing himself as the current Finals MVP favorite at -200 odds. AD is right there behind him though (+140), after sporting his second straight 30-point outing on Friday to begin his NBA Finals career.


Los Angeles will look to make it a perfect 3-0 in these NBA Finals on Sunday evening.


Miami Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 15-10 SU, 16-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS, 9-8 O/U


The Heat entered this series as hefty underdogs (+300), and things are only getting worse for them as they continue to lose games while nursing their injury woes – currently sitting at +1600 to rally back from a two-game deficit.

The biggest thing for Miami right now is health if they want to compete in this series. Even with Dragic and Adebayo in the lineup, the odds of the Heat knocking off LeBron and company in these finals were slim to none.


Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro also need to get it going from downtown in this series if the Heat want to swing the momentum back in their direction in Game 3 – the duo is shooting a combined 5 for 21 from three-point land in the series.


Key Injuries


Los Angeles


None


Miami


PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful


Dragic’s status for Game 3 remains foggy, but Adebayo says that he feels good and expects to be in the lineup for the Heat on Sunday night. If Miami wants to make these NBA Finals look like a closely contested series in the slightest, it is critical that Bam is healthy and in the lineup for the Heat. Keep an eye on his status as tipoff approaches.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


Payrolls of the eight baseball teams still playing:
— New York $249,788,488
— Los Angeles $222,115,000
— Houston $214,090,057
— Atlanta $158,026,375
— San Diego $151,453,350
— Oakland $95,455,433
— Miami $73,114,200
— Tampa Bay $72,489,233


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,013
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……


13) Kansas City 26, Patriots 10:
— New England travelled to Kansas City Monday morning, played their #2-3 QB’s.
— Patriots had two empty trips to red zone; QB Hoyer was then replaced by Stidham.
— New England ran ball for 185 yards, but turned it over four times.


— KC won its first four games, scoring 29.3 ppg- they’re first team EVER to start out 4-0 four years in a row.
— Chiefs gave up 526 YR the last three weeks, 175.3/game.
— KC is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games as a home favorite.


12) Green Bay 30, Falcons 16:
— Falcons are 0-4; they led one game 26-10 with 7:00 left, led 29-10 at halftime in another game. Coach’s job has to be in jeopardy.
— Atlanta has been outscored 84-46 in second half of games.
— Home side won last seven series games.


— Green Bay won its first four games, scoring 43-42-37-30 points.
— Three of four Packer games went over the total.
— Packers covered eight of last 11 games as a home favorite.


11) Houston Texans fired coach Bill O’Brien after their 0-4 start; Romeo Crennel is the interim coach. O’Brien had a 52-48 regular season record, with five winning seasons out of seven, but there has long been a power struggle within the Texans about personnel control, so the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, and subsequent 0-4 start, sealed O’Brien’s fate.


10) Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed 15 TD’s on their opponents’ last 37 drives- that’s not good. On the bright side, Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to pass for 450+ yards three games in a row.


9) Can’t remember an NFL game where both teams had 30+ first downs; Cleveland had 33, Dallas 35 in the Browns’ 49-38 win Sunday.


8) Only two players ever have won an NBA championship with three different teams; Robert Horry, John Salley. Lebron James would become the third if the Lakers win this year.


7) Word of the Day: quisling


According to the Oxford Dictionary, a quisling is “a traitor who collaborates with an enemy force occupying their country.”


The word originated in Norway, where a guy named Vidkun Quisling was a Norwegian military officer, politician, and Nazi collaborator in the 1930’s.


6) Not often a football team runs the ball for 300+ yards, let alone 400+; Kentucky ran it for 407 yards in their 42-41 overtime loss to Ole Miss Saturday.


On Signing Day next February, when college teams are announcing their new recruits, Ole Miss better have signed a hell of a lot of kids who play defense- they need ‘em.


5) In 2007, Michigan State’s football team had three QB’s on its roster who started NFL games this weekend: Brian Hoyer, Kirk Cousins, Nick Foles.


4) Before Saturday, the last time Oklahoma lost a football game at Iowa State was 1960, a couple months before my first birthday.


3) Baseball happenings over the last few days:
— Phillies demoted GM Matt Klentak, after the team spent a boatload of $$$ the last few years but never made the playoffs. Philly had the worst bullpen in the majors this year and they failed to re-sign free agent-to-be C JP Realmuto.
— Angels told GM Billy Eppler to take a hike; in five years under Eppler’s watch, the Halos went a combined 332-376 (.469), with no winning seasons, even though the Angels have the best player in baseball on their team. Pitching still matters.
— Washington Nationals fired their pitching coach, who was surprised by the move.


2) Houston 10, A’s 5:
— Tide turned when Houston scored four unearned runs in top of the 6th.
— Alex Bregman has homered in a playoff game on October 5 four years in a row.
— Weird watching an A’s-Astros game and seeing batboys wearing Dodger uniforms.


1) New York 9, Tampa Bay 3:
— Cole went six innings, got his first win in eight career starts vs Tampa Bay.
— New York scored 31 runs in its first three playoff games.
— Stanton hit a grand slam in the ninth inning.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 6
Patrick Everson


Jimmy Butler and the Heat hope to fully climb back into the NBA Finals in Tuesday night's Game 4 against LeBron James and the Lakers. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite.


NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, set for Tuesday night. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look to knot up the best-of-7 series against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement up until game time.


NBA line movement


The Heat lost Games 1 and 2 by double digits, then climbed back into the series with a double-digit win of their own, beating the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3 Sunday. Still, Los Angeles opened a 7.5-point favorite for Game 4, and the line stuck there at FanDuel through Monday night for this 9 p.m. ET Tuesday clash.


FanDuel opened the total at 219.5 and dipped to 218.5 Monday evening.


NBA public betting


The public, per usual, is on the Lakers at FanDuel, with 71 percent of early tickets and 87 percent of early money taking Los Angeles. And although the total dialed down a point, there’s similar consensus on the Over, which is attracting 79 percent of tickets/84 percent of money.


******************************


707LA LAKERS -708 MIAMI
MIAMI is 28-9 ATS (18.1 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Tuesday, October 6

LA Lakers @ Miami


Game 707-708
October 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
131.097
Miami
120.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 11
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over








NBA
Long Sheet


Tuesday, October 6


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA LAKERS (66 - 23) vs. MIAMI (57 - 34) - 10/6/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MIAMI is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 7-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Tuesday, October 6


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
LA Lakers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games




******************************




Game 4 Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Michael Crosson


The Miami Heat nabbed their first win of the NBA Finals with an impressive 115-104 victory on Sunday night – undeniably carried on the back of Jimmy Butler.


Miami still has a boatload of work to do heading into Game 4 though, still needing three victories in their next four games against a star-packed Los Angeles Lakers squad if they want to become the first team to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy following a run in the Disney World Bubble.


Betting Resources


Matchup: NBA Finals Game 4
Series: Lakers lead 2-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC


Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)


Line Movements


Miami shut everybody up for the moment with a triumphant victory in Game 3, but the oddsmakers are not batting an eye after the Laker loss on Sunday night – rolling out the same opening line of Los Angeles -7.5 for Game 4.


Miami and Los Angeles combined for 219 points in Game 3, and depending on ‘when’ and ‘where’ your bet was placed, there is a chance you could have had a winning ticket regardless of whether you bet the ‘over’ or ‘under,’ as the total for Game 3 opened at OU 217.5 and closed at OU 220.


The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday night’s contest has been intelligently placed at the same number of points these teams combined for in their most recent affair – OU 219.5


Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -325 Miami +270
Total: 219.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1100, Miami +700


Game 3 Recap


Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic both did not suit up for the Heat in Game 3, but it did not make a difference anyhow, as Sunday night was all about a Miami lineup led by none other than Mr. Jimmy Buckets.


Butler had one of the most impressive nights in NBA postseason history in Miami’s 115-104 win on Sunday night, recording just the third ever 40-point triple double in a Finals contest, and did it on 70% shooting, without attempting a single 3-pointer. He also recorded two blocks and two steals at the other end of the floor.


The Lakers’ starters were miserable from 3-point land in Game 3, going a combined 3 for 14 from beyond the arc in their first loss of these Finals. Unexpected bright spots came in the form of Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma on Sunday night though, as the duo provided 38 points and 9 rebounds off the bench to keep Frank Vogel’s team alive over the course of this one.


Los Angeles will undoubtedly need more out of their superstars in Game 4 if Butler plans on continuing the rampage he started on Sunday night.


Game 3 Betting Results


Outcome: Heat 115 Lakers 104


Miami came to play on Sunday and bettors backing the Heat were able to connect in the first quarter and both halves, with each decision never in doubt.


While the underdog was the right side, the same can't be said for total wagers. After a slow start, the offensive units picked up the pace in the second and third quarter yet the 'under' still managed to connect. Some bettors may have been able to connect on a middle too as the game opened 218 and closed at 220.


Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+9.5), Under 220
First Quarter: Heat Win (26-23), Heat Cover (+2.5), Under 55
First-Half: Heat Win (58-54), Heat Cover (+4.5), Over 109
Second-Half: Heat Win (57-50), Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 108


Los Angeles Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 17-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS, 12-14 O/U
Playoffs: 14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-10 O/U


I am not sure if the Lakers’ superstars just wanted to give the Heat their ceremonial victory lap for winning the Eastern Conference in Game 3 or what, but Los Angeles lacked all signs of a killer-instinct on Sunday night, and appeared to be content letting Miami walk all over them once they fell behind in this game.


Adebayo did not suit up for Miami in Sunday’s contest, which means Anthony Davis was drawing the Kelly Olynyk matchup for large chunks of this game, and the Brow managed to convert just six of nine shot attempts.


The strategy for the Lakers on Tuesday night needs to be plain and simple. Get AD going early on – he needs to shoot the ball more. Bam is likely not going to suit up again. Davis has no excuse for dodging the spotlight in Game 4 after a relatively pedestrian performance last time out.


Miami Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 16-10 SU, 17-9 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 9-9 O/U


Miami is now receiving a bit of love from Vegas heading into Game 4, being trimmed from a +1600 underdog, now down to just a +600 underdog following a victory on Sunday night without two of its crucial players.


I guess the only good thing about Bam and Goran being out is that there are more shots available for Butler, as the All-Star led the contest with 20 field goal attempts.


The Lakers are notorious for struggling to defend guards off the dribble and Jimmy exposed them in Game 3 by dropping 40 without taking a single 3-point attempt. He will look to utilize that part of his game again for his team on Tuesday night.


Key Injuries


Los Angeles


None


Miami


PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful


Adebayo said he feels good and wanted to suit up heading into Game 3, but the reports coming out of the bubble continue to be pessimistic regarding his, and Dragic’s statuses for the remainder of this series.


Leading up to tipoff on Sunday night, both players received “doubtful” tags which ultimately led to neither of the guys suiting up. Keep an eye out for any injury report upgrades before the contest, but I would not bank on either of them playing in Game 4.

 

[CNOTES]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LAL at MIA 09:00 PM
MIA +7.5
O 218.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

NBA FINALS RECORD:


ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail


09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


Totals.......2-3-1......40.00%....-6.50

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


NFL leaders in scoring (thru four weeks):
46— Randy Bullock, Cin
45— Rodrigo Blankenship, Ind
42— Alvin Kamara, NO; Dalvin Cook, Minn
40— Mason Crosby, GB
39— Daniel Carlson, LV
38— Justin Tucker, Balt


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 212,420
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Friday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday


13) Chicago 20, Tampa Bay 19:
— Tampa Bay scored 23-19 points in their losses, 31-28-38 in its wins.
— Buccaneers outgained Chicago 339-243.
— When Brady threw an incompletion on 4th down on Tampa’s last drive, he didn’t know it was 4th down. Surprising thing to see.


— Santos kicked a 38-yard FG with 1:13 left for the win.
— Chicago has won four of its first five games, their best start since 2012. 
— Bears are 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.


12) Atlanta 7, Miami 0: (Braves win 3-0)
— Braves have thrown four shutouts in five playoff games.
— Travis d’Arnaud had two more RBI for Atlanta, which makes the NLCS for first time since 2001.
— Excellent season for Miami, which shocked the world by making the playoffs.


11) Los Angeles 12, San Diego 3 (LA wins 3-0)
— Padres were up against it here, with Clevinger/Lamet both hurt coming in.
— Dodgers broke it open with five runs in third inning.
— Will Smith had five hits, scored three times of LA.


10) Houston 11, A’s 4 (Astros win 3-1)
— Brantley scored three runs, knocked in three more.
— Correa went 3-4 with five RBI.
— Astros are in their 4th consecutive ALCS.


9) New York 5, Tampa Bay 1 (series 2-2)
— Bronx bullpen threw five shutout innings in relief of Montgomery.
— Gleyber Torres scored two runs, knocked in two more.
— Decisive Game 5 is tonight in San Diego.


8) Sunday’s Denver-New England game was moved to 5pm Monday, first half of a Monday night twinbill with Chargers-Saints.


Buffalo-Tennessee has been moved from Sunday to 7pm Tuesday, assuming the Titans get healthier.
If the Buffalo-Tennessee game is played Tuesday, then the Week 6 Bills-Chiefs game gets pushed back from Thursday night to Sunday afternoon.


7) Houston 49, Tulane 31— Not often a team playing its season opener opposes a team playing its 4th game of the year, but welcome to 2020.


Tulane scored two defensive TD’s in the first 6:00 of this game, but wound up getting run off the field by Houston’s explosive passing game.


Cougars threw for 319 yards, outgained Tulane 476-211- they had TD passes of 41, 62 yards.


6) Los Angeles Chargers showed good common sense by naming rookie Justin Herbert their starting QB going forward; the kid has played well so far, might as well let him play so he gets the needed experience and also so their fanbase gets excited and will want to buy tickets next season, in the new domed stadium.


5) This week, someone posted a video on Twitter of a Kentucky basketball practice from 2018; John Calipari tells the team that if Tyler Herro can make eight 3-pointers in a row, he’ll end that day’s practice early. 

First shot, swish; he runs down to the other end, makes another. He goes end-to-end three other times, makes all eight shots, and his teammates erupt with joy.


Huge change in basketball over the last 10-15 years; skill development. The Curry/Thompson Golden State teams have shown how shooting can make teams great and make a guy rich, and guys have worked their butts off to become great shooters. Herro was a steal for Miami with the 13th pick of last year’s draft.


4) For some reason the other night, I’m sitting here at 2am with a Texas-Oklahoma football game from 1984 on TV. Keith Jackson/Frank Broyles calling a rain-soaked game, was great fun to listen to. Not much passing; shoulder pads were a lot bigger then.


3) Random movie trivia, part 1: When they filmed the movie The Blues Brothers in 1980, they wrecked 103 cars during the filming, 60 of which were police cars, at $4,000 a pop.


2) Random movie trivia, part 2: Until Thursday, I had no idea that actor Jon Voight was Angelina Jolie’s father.


1) Best wishes to Kansas football coach Les Miles, one of our favorites, who tested positive for COVID this week. Get well soon, coach.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 9
Patrick Everson


LeBron James and the Lakers can finish off the Heat and claim the NBA championship in Game 5 on Wednesday Night. FanDuel Sportsbook opened Los Angeles -7.5 and moved to -7.


NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Friday night, which could end with a hoisting of the championship trophy as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to finish off the Miami Heat.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.


NBA line movement


The Lakers held off the Heat 102-96 in Game 4 Tuesday night to take a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series and move to the brink of the title. FanDuel opened Los Angeles a 7.5-point favorite for Game 5 and bounced to -7 a couple of times, including late Wednesday night.


The total opened at 216.5 and spent a few hours at 217 Wednesday before dropping to 216.


NBA public betting


Early betting splits at FanDuel indicate customers at least think the Heat will cover the number in Game 5. While ticket count is two-way, with a lean toward Miami at 54 percent, 82 percent of money was on the Heat through Wednesday night.


The total is very much seeing two-way action, with 59 percent of tickets on the Over, but money split right down the middle through Wednesday.

 

[CNOTES]

709MIAMI -710 LA LAKERS
MIAMI is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.








NBA
Dunkel


Friday, October 9

Miami @ LA Lakers


Game 709-710
October 9, 2020 @ 9:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
119.767
LA Lakers
131.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 12
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 7 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-7 1/2); Over








NBA
Long Sheet


Friday, October 9


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (57 - 35) vs. LA LAKERS (67 - 23) - 10/9/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 49-40 ATS (+5.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 31-21 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA LAKERS are 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NBA


Friday, October 9


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Miami @ LA Lakers
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Miami




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Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson


The Los Angeles Lakers reigned victorious in a closely contested Game 4 NBA Finals bout in the Orlando bubble on Tuesday night, and now LeBron James finds himself just one victory over the Miami Heat away from becoming just the third player in NBA history to secure a championship ring with three different teams.


Betting Resources


Matchup: NBA Finals Game 5
Series: Lakers lead 3-1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Oct. 9, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC


LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers will look to eliminate the Miami Heat when the pair meet in Game 5 on Friday. (AP)


Line Movements


Tyler Herro broke the heart and bank of every Laker bettor with his last-second, garbage-time, 3-point bomb to secure a Miami +7.5 cover at the end of Game 4 on Tuesday night. Understandably, the oddsmakers have elected to leave the line for Friday night’s game at the same number – Los Angeles -7.


The ‘over-under’ in this series has split now 2-2 in the first four games of these NBA Finals, after combining for just 198 points in their most recent matchup. The total for Friday night’s game still sits in the same ballpark of their recent matchups – OU 216.


Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -310 Miami +260
Total: 216
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -10000, Miami +2000


Game 4 Recap


The Heat got back a key player from injury in Bam Adebayo (15 points, 7 rebounds) for Game 4, and despite losing the game, Miami finally looked like the team that locked down the Eastern Conference defensively by holding the Lakers to their lowest point total in this series so far (102).


Tuesday night was all about LeBron James yet again though, as the King led Los Angeles in scoring with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 8 assists on 50% shooting in the victory.


The Lakers got virtually no help from the bench in Game 4, as guys not in the starting lineup for Frank Vogel’s team shot a combined 5 for 15 in the contest. But it did not make a difference as Anthony Davis went for 22 points on 50% shooting, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green combined for another 25 points.

Los Angeles tried to keep Miami in the game by turning the ball over 15 times and letting the Heat outshoot them 18-21 at the foul line. But Erik Spoelstra’s team just did not bring the firepower to knock off the Lakers in this one like they did in Game 3.


Lakers bettors felt confident down the stretch of Tuesday night’s contest, as LeBron and company boasted a nine-point lead with the clock winding down in Game 4. But of course, the 20-year old rookie from the University of Kentucky had to be the hero for Miami bettors, securing the backdoor cover on the final shot of the contest.


Covering the spread will not be enough for the Heat on Sunday night though, as one more Lakers victory will give them their first title since 2010.


Game 4 Betting Results


Outcome: Lakers 106 Heat 96


While Herro gave Heat backers a nice win on side wagers, the 'under' was never in doubt and it cashed across the board. The 'under' is now 3-1 in the first four games of the finals


Game: Lakers Win, Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 218.5
First Quarter: Lakers Win (27-22), Lakers Cover (-3), Under 56.5
First-Half: Lakers Win (49-47), Heat Cover (+5), Under 112.5
Second-Half: Lakers Win (53-49), Heat Cover (+4), Under 107


Miami Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 16-11 SU, 18-9 ATS, 13-11-1 O/U
Playoffs: 13-6 SU, 15-4 ATS, 9-10 O/U


Even though they lost the game, Tuesday night’s contest should have been the most encouraging contest of this series so far for Heat fans, as the Miami defense really seemed to gel with Bam back in the lineup.


The results were not necessarily encouraging for the immediate future, as Miami is currently staring down the barrel of a 3-1 deficit. But Tuesday night showed that this young, Heat core has the foundation to defend and compete with dynamic, star-filled rosters like the Lakers, when healthy.


The Heat have had their greatest success against Los Angeles when they play through Butler and let him take 20+ shots per game, which is a tough strategy against a team wielding defensive firepower like the Lakers. Miami is clearly still one piece away. But it has still been one heck of a ride in the bubble for this dark-horse Miami squad.


Los Angeles Betting Outlook


Inside the Stats


Bubble: 18-9 SU, 11-15-1 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Playoffs: 15-4 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 8-11 O/U


It feels obnoxious saying that AD has been a letdown in his last two NBA Finals contests for Los Angeles, averaging over 18 points per game, but that really is an underwhelming feat for the Lakers’ superstar big man.


Davis is shooting the ball fine over this stretch (50%+ in last 2 games), it just seems like the Lakers are strategizing away from the big man in this series, as AD draws Adebayo on a large percentage of his square-up opportunities.


King James currently sits as a -450 favorite to win Finals MVP after back-to-back slow performances from Davis. Looking forward to another emotional MVP speech from ‘the chosen one’ following the conclusion of this series.


Fun Fact


The last time the Lakers won a title, they knocked off Rajon Rondo and the “Big 3” Boston Celtics in 7 games back in the 2010 NBA Finals.


Ten years later, the four-time All-Star still comes off the bench for the Lakers, searching for his second title and contributing quality minutes at the guard position for a team that desperately needs it. If Los Angeles is able beat Miami one more time in this series, his second championship ring is undoubtedly well earned.)


Key Injuries


Los Angeles


None


Miami


PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful


Dragic suffered a fascia tear in his foot during Game 1 of these NBA Finals, and has not been able to get back on the floor since. Prior to Game 4, Dragic tried to warm-up with his team and go through a pre-game routine, but it was evident he was still dealing with some serious discomfort in his left foot.


The veteran point-guard is listed as 'doubtful' for Friday night’s tilt. I do not expect him to suit up for the remainder of this series – but you never know. Goran is a tough guy.


Kendrick Nunn is slated to fill Miami’s gap in the rotation for Game 5. Surprisingly, this move did not leave too big of a scar on the Heat’s offensive production during the first few meetings of Dragic’s absence, but they are now beginning to feel the loss of their point-guard as 2020 Rookie of the Year Runner-up scored just six points on 2 of 11 field goal attempts on Tuesday night.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 9


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at LAL 09:00 PM


LAL -7.5


U 215.0

 

[CNOTES]

NBA FINALS RECORD:


ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail


10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail


09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


09/27/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


Totals.......4-5-1......44.44%....-7.50

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


NFL’s all-time regular season passing yardage leaders:
78,422— Drew Brees
75,946— Tom Brady
71,940— Peyton Manning
71,838— Brett Favre
61,361— Dan Marino
60,255— Philip Rivers


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,171
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.




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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday


13) Oklahoma 53, Texas 45 OT:
— Texas scored two TD’s in last 3:17 to force OT.
— Both kickers missed a field goal in one of the OT’s.
— Oklahoma benched QB Rattler in 2nd quarter, but he played 2nd half.
— Texas is 1-2 in Big X: 63-56/31-33/45-53. Wild games.


12) Texas A&M 41, Florida 38:
— Florida QB Kyle Trask is named after Kyle Field, where A&M plays their games; both his parents went to Texas A&M.
— Gators led 28-17 with 5:00 left in third quarter.
— A&M gained 543 yards, converted 12-15 on third down.
— Aggies scored 10 points in last 4:30, kicking a 26-yard FG for the win.


11) Missouri 45, LSU 41:
— LSU had ball 1st-and-goal on 1-yard line in last minute, didn’t score- they threw the ball on 3rd and 4th down.
— LSU is 1-2, with 44-34/45-41 losses. Tough time to be the defensive coordinator.
— Missouri gained 586 yards, threw for 406.
— LSU scored 41 points, despite going 0-10 on third down.


10) Duke 38, Syracuse 24— Misleading final score:
— Total yardage: 645-286, Duke
— First downs: 36-11, Duke
— Blue Devils ran ball for 363 yards.
— If I looked at the team stats without knowing the score, would’ve said Duke, by 28-30 points, but Blue Devils were minus-4 in turnovers, which kept Syracuse within reach.


9) Auburn 30, Arkansas 28:
— Auburn led 17-0 midway thru second quarter.
— Tigers kicked 39-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win, but a controversial call on a spiked ball/fumble in the last minute saved Auburn’s bacon.
— Arkansas QB Franks was 22-30/318 yards passing, with four TD’s.
— Auburn ran for 259 yards on a soggy field; surprisingly, no turnovers either way.


8) Alabama 63, Ole Miss 48:
— Total yardage was 723-647; truly terrible defense.
— Ole Miss allowed 51-41-63 points in their first three games.
— Alabama ran 71 plays, only 7 on third down- they converted 6 of them.
— Crimson Tide gained 723 yards on 71 plays, over 10 yards/play.


7) Upsets of the Week:
— Missouri (+14) 45, LSU 41
— Kansas State (+10.5) 21, TCU 14
— NC State (+7) 21, Virginia 14
— Boston College (+6.5) 31, Pitt 30
— Middle Tennessee (+6.5) 31, FIU 28
— Texas A&M (+6) 41, Florida 38
— East Carolina (+6) 44, South Florida 24


6) Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30 OT:
— BC led 24-14 with 3:00 left in third quarter.
— Pitt’s kicker tied game with a 58-yard FG in last minute, then missed a PAT in overtime.
— Pitt was only 4-18 on 3rd down, but converted 3-4 on 4th down.


5) Georgia 44, Tennessee 21:
— Georgia poached QB’s from Wake Forest/USC to play this year, but former walk-on Bennett is now the starter, and the Dawgs are 3-0- he was 16-27/238 passing in this game.
— Bennett had to go play at Smith JC in Mississippi before Georgia gave him a scholarship.
— Dawgs ran football for 193 yards, outgained Tennessee 431-214.


4) Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 2:
— Two weeks ago, Miss State QB Costello threw for 623 yards; he got benched in this game, came back in 4th quarter and threw a pick-6. No bueno.
— Kentucky lost 42-41 to Ole Miss last week, so great job by their defense here.


3) NC State 38, Virginia 21:
— Virginia turned ball over four times (-3), converted only 4-18 on 3rd down.
— Cavaliers threw ball for 323 yards, outgained State 405-363.
— Wolfpack is off to a 3-1 start, despite playing three road games.


2) Home favorites/home underdogs against spread, by conference:
AAC 2-3-1……2-0
ACC 6-6-1……6-2
Big X 6-3……3-2
C-USA 0-7……1-2
SEC 5-6……5-4
Sun Belt 1-1……3-1


1) I miss watching Pac-12 football until 2am on Saturday nights; look forward to when they start their season, on November 7th.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA public betting, line movement for October 11
Patrick Everson


As usual, the Lakers are the public play, attracting 68 percent of tickets and money at FanDuel Sportsbook through Saturday afternoon for Sunday's Game 6.


NBA betting odds are on the board for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, set for Sunday night. The Miami Heat look to stretch this series to seven games, while the Los Angeles Lakers aim to finish off this battle and raise the trophy.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided early insights on NBA Finals opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s matchup, along with odds to win the NBA championship.


NBA line movement


Jimmy Butler willed Miami to victory in Friday’s must-win Game 5, finishing with 35 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in a 111-108 victory over Los Angeles. The Heat pulled with 3-2 in the best-of-seven series heading into another must-win in a 7:30 p.m. ET tipoff Sunday.


FanDuel opened the Lakers at -5.5 and moved to -5 late Friday night, where the line remained Saturday afternoon. The total opened at 216 and dropped to 214.5.


NBA public betting


The Lakers are always the public play, and it’s showing up in the early betting splits at FanDuel. Los Angeles was attracting 68 percent of tickets and money, through Saturday afternoon. Sixty-two percent of early bets were on the Over, but money was almost dead even, with 51 percent on the Under.




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711LA LAKERS -712 MIAMI
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (10.6 Units) in playoff games in the current season.








NBA
Dunkel


Sunday, October 11


LA Lakers @ Miami


Game 711-712
October 11, 2020 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Lakers
124.969
Miami
126.414
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5); Under








NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, October 11


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LA LAKERS (67 - 24) vs. MIAMI (58 - 35) - 10/11/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
MIAMI is 50-40 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
MIAMI is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MIAMI is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 43-35 ATS (+4.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 8-3 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA


Sunday, October 11


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Trend Report
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LA Lakers @ Miami
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
LA Lakers is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Lakers

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


LAL at MIA 07:30 PM


MIA +5.5


U 214.5

 

[CNOTES]

NBA FINALS RECORD:


ATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


10/11/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


10/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail


10/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


10/02/2020 0-1-1 25.00% -550 Detail


09/30/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail


09/27/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail


Totals.......5-6-1......45.45%....-8.00