NBA public betting, line movement September 15
Patrick Everson
Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers aim to avoid a big collapse against Michael Porter Jr. and the Nuggets in Game 7 Tuesday. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles -6. 5 and moved to -7.5.
After a rare day off, NBA betting odds are on the board and getting action for a pair of Tuesday playoff games. The Los Angeles Clippers hope to finally put away the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals, preceded by Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.
The SuperBook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s matchups.
NBA line movement
Denver already rallied from down 3-1 once in the NBA playoffs, beating the Utah Jazz in seven games, and will try to do it again in a 9 p.m. ET tipoff against Los Angeles. In Game 7 Sunday, the Nuggets trailed by 16 at halftime, but blew out the Clippers 64-35 in the second half to post a 111-98 victory.
For Game 7, The SuperBook opened the Clippers -6.5 and moved to -7.5, where the line remained through Monday night. The total opened at 208, dropped to 206.5, then rebounded to 207.5.
Meanwhile, Miami has been on a tear the entire playoffs, going 8-1 SU and ATS while sweeping the Indiana Pacers, then dumping the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in five games. So once again, the Heat are well-rested, having not played since Sept. 8. Boston had to duke it out over seven games with the Toronto Raptors, clinching the series with a 92-87 win Friday.
The SuperBook opened the Celtics -1.5 and moved to -2 for a couple of hours over the weekend, then went back to -1.5. The total opened at 211.5 and is down to 209.5 for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.
NBA public betting
The Consensus shows point-spread bettors have faith that the Nuggets can at least cover, with Denver getting 63 percent of early picks against the Clippers. And through Monday night, 76 percent of picks were on the Over, with the bulk of those picks on the current total of 207.5.
Heat-Celtics was drawing two-way play in the Consensus, with Boston attracting 52 percent of picks and the Under getting 57 percent of picks.
*******************************
729DENVER -730 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 46-26 ATS (17.4 Units) in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.
731MIAMI -732 BOSTON
BOSTON is 52-28 ATS (21.2 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, September 15
Miami @ Boston
Game 731-732
September 15, 2020 @ 6:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.470
Boston
123.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 5
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
210 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under
Denver @ LA Clippers
Game 729-730
September 15, 2020 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
122.831
LA Clippers
120.123
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
211
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 7
208
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+7); Over
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, September 15
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (53 - 33) vs. LA CLIPPERS (56 - 28) - 9/15/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-37 ATS (+5.3 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 39-31 ATS (+4.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 248-303 ATS (-85.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 9-7 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 8-8 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (52 - 30) vs. BOSTON (56 - 27) - 9/15/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 39-27 ATS (+9.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 37-26 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 6-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-4 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA
Tuesday, September 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Miami
Denver @ LA Clippers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing Denver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game 7 Odds: Nuggets vs. Clippers
Michael Crosson
The second round of the NBA Playoffs in the Western Conference will conclude on Tuesday night as the No. 3 Denver Nuggets will meet in a decisive Game 7 matchup against the No. 2 Los Angeles Clippers.
Betting Resources
Matchup: Western Conference Game 7
Second Round: Series tied 3-3
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
The Nuggets have outscored the Clippers by a combined 47 points in the second-half of the last two games in their 2nd round series. (AP)
Line Movements
The Denver Nuggets, who are no strangers to win-or-go-home contests in the bubble, will head into their third consecutive game facing elimination as seven and a half-point underdogs against the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers, despite knocking off Doc Rivers’ team in back-to-back matchups prior to Tuesday night.
The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday’s matchup opened around OU 211.5 at most books, but we have seen that number take steep fall down to OU 207.5 as tickets continue to rain in on the ‘under’ – typical for almost any Game 7 affair.
Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
Money-Line: Los Angeles -320 Denver +260
Total: 207.5
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -310, Denver +260
Game 6 Recap
It feels like the Nuggets have been on the ropes since Game 4 of this series, but they just keep on putting on outstanding displays of resiliency time-after-time again.
In Game 6, it was on the shoulders of the Joker, Nikola Jokic (34 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists), who led his team back from a 16-point halftime deficit to stun the Clippers, 111-98 and force a Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.
Denver scored a modest 64 points in the second half of Game 6, which is the kind of performance they will likely need to compete with LAC in the series finale.
However, the real story was full blown shooting collapse of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on Sunday, as the all-star duo shot a combined 6-for-21 from the field in the final two stanzas of the Clippers’ loss, contributing heavily to the LAC’s 10-for-38 as a unit.
The Claw says his team just went “cold” down the stretch of Sunday afternoon’s contest – he will hope for him and his team to heat back up again before Tuesday night’s tilt.
Game 6 Betting Results
Bettors backing the Clippers for the second straight game got another rough taste of reality as L.A. built a big lead before collapsing again.
Denver outscored Los Angeles by 29 points in the second-half and that followed the Nuggets outscoring the Clips by 18 points in the second-half of Game 5.
Outcome: Nuggets 111 Clippers 98
Game: Nuggets Win, Nuggets Cover (+8.5), Under (214.5)
First Quarter: Clippers Win (34-26), Clippers Cover (+3), Over (54.5)
First-Half: Clippers Win (63-47), Clippers Cover (-4.5), Over (108.5)
Second-Half: Nuggets Win (64-35), Nuggets Cover (-0.5), Under (105.5)
Denver Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Bubble: 10-11 SU, 13-8 ATS, 13-7-1 O/U
Playoffs: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U
They say, “The most dangerous lead in sports is a 2-0 lead,” but it is starting to seem like the Nuggets prefer being down 3-1, as Mike Malone’s team has now officially rallied back from its second straight two-game deficit in these playoffs to force another Game 7.
Either that, or they just are very fond of seven-game series, as Tuesday night will mark the fourth straight playoff series for Denver that has extended to its seventh contest.
The first of those four series took place last year and ended with the Nuggets advancing past the seventh-seeded Spurs in an exhausting opening round series to kick off last year’s playoffs, which ultimately led to Jokic and company running out of steam in their second round series finale against the Blazers.
Consecutive seven-game playoff series are known to be physically AND emotionally draining for athletes – especially in an environment like the Disney bubble. Tuesday night should be a great test to see what this young Denver team is really made of.
Los Angeles Betting Outlook
Inside the Stats
Bubble: 12-8 SU, 12-8 ATS, 10-9-1 O/U
Playoffs: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U
Clippers fans are being driven up all wall by their team in this series and I cannot blame them, as Los Angeles has been in a position to close out the Nuggets in each of its last two contests and has failed in both.
Now LAC finds itself in a Game 7 matchup, squaring off with Murray and Jokic, who both have the potential to get as hot as anybody in the league and win a basketball game.
The Clippers are the overwhelming favorite to win this series finale and they should be based off their superior talent-level and offensive firepower.
Just ask Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz though – This is just not a spot you prefer to be in if you are Coach Doc Rivers right now trying to establish yourself as a Western Conference powerhouse.
Key Injuries
Denver
SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Game Time Decision
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out
Los Angeles
None
Nothing new to add onto the injury report for Game 7 as Vlatko Cancar and Will Barton remain the only players expected to be absent from either side on Tuesday night – the only thing questionable heading into this series finale is what a three-game implosion would mean moving forward for a Clippers team that was originally supposed to be destined for a blockbuster LA vs LA Western Conference Finals.
