Cnotes 2020 NHL Playoffs Trends, News, Notes, Picks !

[CNOTES]

NHL public betting, odds movement September 10
Patrick Everson


The Golden Knights hope to have more to celebrate after Thursday night's Game 3 against the Stars. Vegas opened a -165 favorite at The SuperBook, briefly went to -160, then returned to -165.


NHL betting odds are on the board as the Stanley Cup chase resumes Thursday with Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. The Vegas Golden Knights go for a second straight win in their series against the Dallas Stars.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contest.

NHL odds movement


The Golden Knights got shut out 1-0 in Game 1, then returned the favor Tuesday night in Game 2, notching a 3-0 victory to knot the series. Vegas opened -165 at The SuperBook for Game 3, spent about 30 minutes Wednesday at -160, then returned to the opening price for an 8 p.m. ET puck drop. The Stars are +150.


On the total, The SuperBook was stable at 5.5 through late Wednesday night, although the Under is juiced to -135.


NHL public betting


The Consensus, often indicative of public action, showed a lean toward Vegas by late Wednesday night. The Knights were drawing 64 percent of early picks, while the Over/Under was almost dead two-way play, with 51 percent of picks on the Over.




*******************************


39VEGAS -40 DALLAS
DALLAS are 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) when playing their 4th road game in 7 days in the current season.








NHL
Long Sheet


Thursday, September 10


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VEGAS (51-29-0-8, 110 pts.) vs. DALLAS (47-32-0-8, 102 pts.) - 9/10/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 97-80 ATS (-18.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 272-180 ATS (+74.7 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 242-167 ATS (+29.6 Units) after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
DALLAS is 20-16 ATS (+36.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-3 (+6.3 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-3-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.9 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NHL


Thursday, September 10


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vegas @ Dallas
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games




------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Dunkel


Thursday, September 10

Vegas @ Dallas


Game 39-40
September 10, 2020 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Vegas
13.897
Dallas
11.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 2 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-165); Under

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


VEG at DAL 08:00 PM
DAL +150
U 5.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1250 Detail
09/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1050 Detail
09/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +0 Detail
09/07/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +175 Detail
09/05/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/04/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1225 Detail
09/03/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +400 Detail
09/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +425 Detail




SEPT. TOTALS...13-13-0......50.00%....+8.75

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack


NFL teams with most room under the salary cap:


$34.74M— Cleveland


$32.24M— New England


$31.31M— NJ Jets


$30.95M— Jacksonville


$26.03M— Washington


$25.43M— Denver




Americans who have died from COVID-19: 190,589
Please wear a mask when you go out.


Tweet of the Day
“With the NFL starting, I find myself pulling for the offense so maybe someone will need a defensive coach!”
Wade Phillips, currently unemployed


Friday’s quiz
In the 1976 movie All the President’s Men, which famous actor played Bob Woodward?


Thursday’s quiz
William Henry Harrison was President for only 31 days, before he died of pneumonia.


Wednesday’s quiz
Kevin Durant began his NBA career with the Seattle SuperSonics, before they moved to Oklahoma and became the Thunder




*****************


Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……..


13) Chiefs 34, Texans 20:
— Chiefs ran ball 34 times for 166 yards; they threw 32 passes.
— KC scored four of the first times they had the football.
— 15,895 fans attended this game on a drizzly night at Arrowhead Stadium.
— In first three series for both teams, KC ran 35 plays, Houston 16


12) With no teams having an off-season program, I’m thinking its going to take a few weeks for offenses to catch up to where they normally are. 34-20 sounds high-scoring, but Houston got couple of scores in garbage time. Pass patterns mostly seemed a lot shorter than normal.


11) Tigers 6, Cardinals 3— Detroit scored five runs in the top of the 7th to earn the split of this twinbill, after losing their previous two games by a combined score of 31-2.


10) Red Sox 3, Rays 2— Rookie Bobby Dalbec homered in his 5th consecutive game.


9) A’s 3, Houston 1— Sean Manaea got thru seven innings on 61 pitches; you just never see that anymore, less than 9 pitches per inning.


8) Miami 31, UAB 14:
— Total yardage was 495-285, Miami
— Hurricanes ran ball for 337 yards.


7) Royals 11, Indians 1— Rookie Brady Singer had a no-hitter into the 8th inning.


6) White Sox are 13-0 vs lefty pitchers; Arizona is 2-10.


5) Atlanta 7, Washington 6— Freddie Freeman knocked in 10 runs the last two games; he is the first Brave to knock in 4+ runs in consecutive games since Mark Teixeira, in 2007.


4) Arizona 5, Dodgers 2— If you have Mookie Betts on your fantasy team, last night was your lucky night; Betts played 2B, so now he’s eligible at 2B in a lot of fantasy leagues, which would be a large advantage over most teams. It was his 16th career game at second base, first one in two years.


LA put Walker Buehler (blister) on the IL before this game, then Dustin May left one inning after he was hit in the foot by a line drive.


3) Longest NFL playoff droughts:
17 years- Cleveland
12- Tampa Bay
9- NJ Jets


2) Lakers 110, Houston 100 (LA leads 3-1)
— Davis had 29 points, 12 rebounds five assists for LA.
— Harden was 2-11 from the floor, 16-20 on foul line. Harden was only Rocket starter with a =/- better than minus-10; he was even.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York


NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

 

[CNOTES]

NHL public betting, odds movement September 11
Patrick Everson


The Lightning's Tyler Johnson and the Islanders' Matt Martin will likely exchange pleasantries again in Game 3 Friday night. The SuperBook at Westgate has Tampa Bay a -153 favorite.


NHL betting odds are on the board as the Stanley Cup chase continues with Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Tampa Bay Lightning can put a stranglehold on the series with a win over the New York Islanders on Friday night.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s contest.


NHL odds movement


Tampa Bay led New York for only nine seconds in Game 2, but it was the right nine seconds, as a very late goal gave the Lightning a 2-1 victory and a 2-0 lead in the best-of-7 series. The SuperBook opened Game 3 at Lightning -155/Islanders +140, with a modest move Thursday night to -153/+138.


The total opened at 5 (Over -135), and that’s where it remained through Thursday for this 8 p.m. ET Friday puck drop.


NHL public betting


With Game 2 as close as it could be, ending on the final-seconds Tampa Bay goal, it should come as no surprise that Game 3 is almost dead two-way in Covers Consensus. As of late Thursday night, the underdog Islanders were drawing 51 percent of picks to bounce back in Game 3.


On the total of 5, 60 percent of early Covers Consensus picks were on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

41TAMPA BAY -42 NY ISLANDERS
TAMPA BAY is 20-1 ATS (18.9 Units) after playing a game where 4 or fewer total goals were scored in the current season.








NHL
Long Sheet


Friday, September 11


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA BAY (55-24-0-6, 116 pts.) vs. NY ISLANDERS (46-27-0-13, 105 pts.) - 9/11/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 98-78 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 102-113 ATS (+268.8 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 117-54 ATS (+23.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 18-5 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-7 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 7-4 (+0.5 Units) against the spread versus NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 7-4-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NHL


Friday, September 11


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Tampa Bay @ NY Islanders
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
NY Islanders is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home




-------------------------------------------------------------------------


NHL
Dunkel


Friday, September 11

Tampa Bay @ NY Islanders


Game 41-42
September 11, 2020 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
14.818
NY Islanders
11.485
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-150
5
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-150); Over

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TB at NYI 08:00 PM
NYI +125
O 5.0
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1125 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1250 Detail
09/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1050 Detail
09/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +0 Detail
09/07/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +175 Detail
09/05/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/04/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1225 Detail
09/03/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +400 Detail
09/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +425 Detail




TOTALS....15-13-0.......53.57%....+20.00

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday’s 6-pack


Major league leaders in OPS:


1.257— Juan Soto, Wash


1.089— Nelson Cruz, Minn


1.081— Freddie Freeman, Atl


1.065— Mike Trout, LAA


1.051— Dominic Smith, NYM


1.049— Trea Turner, Wash




Americans who have died from COVID-19: 192,616
Please wear a mask when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“It’s not real baseball, but it’s fine for this year, and I hope we never do it again.”
Clayton Kershaw, talking about the new extra inning rules


Saturday’s quiz
What eastern city did the LA Clippers call home, before they were known as the Clippers?


Friday’s quiz
In the 1976 movie All the President’s Men, Robert Redford played Bob Woodward.


Thursday’s quiz
William Henry Harrison was President for only 31 days, before he died of pneumonia.




************************


Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday


13) Boston 92, Toronto 87 (Celtics win 4-3)
— Celtics held Toronto to 16 points in 4th quarter.
— Teams combined to make 17-66 on the arc.
— Jayson Tatum led Boston with 29 points.
— Celtics advance to the Eastern Conference final.


12) Nuggets 111, LA Clippers 105 (LA leads 3-2)
— Denver outscored LA 38-25 in 4th quarter to stay alive.
— Michael Porter scored Denver’s last 7 points, his only points of the game.


11) Tampa Bay 11, Red Sox 1— Rays are first team since at least 1900 to start nine lefty hitters in a game, with none of them switch-hitters.


10) Two more random facts from Thursday’s NFL games:
— There were only five plays of 20+ yards in Thursday’s game; Chiefs had two of them. Last year, Kansas City averaged 4.25 plays/game of 20+ yards
— Chiefs had a 15-yard advantage in average field position, which is unusually big.


9) Happy birthday to the great NBA player Bob Lanier, who turned 72 this week; to show how great Lanier was in college, he led St Bonaventure to the 1971 Final Four. Think about that; St Bonaventure is located in the middle of freakin’ nowhere, in the southern tier of central New York; for them to make the Final Four was amazing.


He was a great college player, but tore his knee up in the regional final, when Villanova’s Chris Ford rolled up on his knee. Ironically, Lanier/Ford later wound up as NBA teammates with the Pistons.


8) I was at an AAU tournament in Las Vegas a few years ago, at Bishop Gorman HS, two games going on at once. I’m sitting in the bleachers by myself, behind one couple.


Being AAU ball, when the coach’s cellphone buzzes that he got a text while the game is going on, the guy takes the phone out and reads the text. Why?


He turns around, looks at the couple in front of me and snaps, “If you text me again, he’ll never get in!!!”


The couple wanted their kid to play more; I couldn’t laugh in their faces, so I went to the concession stand. Good stuff.


7) Unsolicited opinions: best-ever play-by-play announcers by sport:
— MLB— Vin Scully
— NFL— Al Michaels
— NBA— Mike Breen
— NHL— Mike Emrick/Dan Kelly
— College hoop— Dick Enberg
— College football— Keith Jackson


6) Phillies’ pitcher Zach Wheeler makes $22M this year; he is now on the IL after tearing the fingernail on the middle finger of his pitching hand while he was putting his pants on.


Wheeler is 4-0, 2,47 in 8 starts; he is really good, but he got hurt putting his pants on.


5) Giant-Padre games for Friday/Saturday were postponed after a Giants’ player tested positive for COVID.


4) Dr Fauci was on TV today telling the truth, because someone needs to; the moderator said they were glad he was speaking, but they were also afraid he would get fired soon.


They can’t fire him; every TV network in the country (except FOX) would be throwing lucrative offers at him, to get his commentary on their station. He’d definitely get his own show, if he wanted one.


3) Sounds like November will be a very quiet month TV-wise, with only football going on until maybe college hoop starts around Thanksgiving. Good news, then, that the NBA now plans to hold their draft November 18, so that’ll provide one night of entertainment.


2) September 11, 1985— Pete Rose set the all-time hits record, getting a hit off of Eric Show of the Padres. Sadly, September 11 is now an infamous date in American history, because of the terrorist attacks on the Twin Towers and Pentagon.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York


NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco

 

[CNOTES]

NHL public betting, odds movement September 12
Patrick Everson


Paul Stastny and the Vegas Golden Knights meet Jason Dickinson and the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals on Saturday. The SuperBook has Vegas a -160 favorite.


NHL betting odds are on the board as the Stanley Cup chase resumes with Game 4 of the Western Conference finals Saturday. The Dallas Stars look to stretch their lead in the best-of-seven series against the Vegas Golden Knights.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s contest.


NHL odds movement


Dallas wasted little time in overtime of Game 3 Thursday, scoring 31 seconds into the extra frame to nab a 3-2 victory and take a 2-1 series lead against Vegas. Still, the Golden Knights opened -160 for Game 4 at The SuperBook, spent a couple of hours Friday at -157, then went back to -160, with the Stars +145.


The total opened at 5.5 and moved to 5 Friday, with the Over at -140 and the Under +120 for Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET faceoff.


NHL public betting


The Consensus, often indicative of public action, showed an expectation of Vegas once again tying up this series. Through Friday night, the Golden Knights were drawing 75 percent of picks, while the total was getting dead-even two-way play.

 

[CNOTES]

1VEGAS -2 DALLAS
DALLAS are 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) when playing their 4th road game in 7 days in the current season.








NHL
Long Sheet


Saturday, September 12


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VEGAS (51-29-0-9, 111 pts.) vs. DALLAS (48-32-0-8, 104 pts.) - 9/12/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 97-81 ATS (-20.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 30-23 ATS (+56.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 23-18 ATS (+44.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-4 (+4.6 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-4-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+4.9 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------







NHL


Saturday, September 12


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Vegas @ Dallas
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 6 games on the road
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Vegas




------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NHL
Dunkel


Saturday, September 12


Vegas @ Dallas


Game 1-2
September 12, 2020 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Vegas
13.258
Dallas
12.187
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vegas
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vegas
(-165); Under

 

[CNOTES]

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


VEG at DAL 08:00 PM
VEG -165
U 5.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -325 Detail
09/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1125 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1250 Detail
09/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1050 Detail
09/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +0 Detail
09/07/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +175 Detail
09/05/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/04/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1225 Detail
09/03/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +400 Detail
09/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +425 Detail




TOTALS....16-14-0.......53.33%....+16.75

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack
Major league leaders in runs scored:


46— Fernando Tatis, SD
43— Dansby Swanson, Atl
39— Mike Trout, LAA
38— Freeman Atl, TAnderson CWS, TTurner Wash
37— Manny Machado, SD
35— Story Col, Abreu CWS, Yastrzemski SF, Conforto NYM, Hoskins Phil




Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.


Quote of the Day
“It’s not real baseball, but it’s fine for this year, and I hope we never do it again.”
Clayton Kershaw, talking about the new extra inning rules


Saturday’s quiz
LA Clippers started out as the Buffalo Braves; they had Bob McAdoo, Jim McMillian, Ernie DiGregorio, some good players- they went 49-33 in 1974-75 under Jack Ramsay, who two years later won the NBA title coaching Portland.


Friday’s quiz
In the 1976 movie All the President’s Men, Robert Redford played Bob Woodward.


Thursday’s quiz
William Henry Harrison was President for only 31 days, before he died of pneumonia.




********************************


Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday


13) Like everything else in 2020, the first real Saturday of college football was odd, capped off by a Coastal Carolina-Kansas game that kicked off at 9pm local time in Lawrence, followed by a 1am ET Korean baseball game. Fun for the whole family.


I’m not a scientist, but I’m pretty sure playing football in this environment isn’t a great idea, especially when the players do not get paid, but college sports is big business, and if you don’t believe that, well Oklahoma charged $55 or so on pay-per-view for their opener against I-AA juggernaut Missouri State. Sooners won 48-0; thrilling.


12) If the presidents/AD’s in the Big X knew what was going to happen on the field Saturday, they might’ve thought a quarantine wasn’t such a bad idea.


Coastal Carolina 38, Kansas 23— Second year in row the Chanticleers upset Kansas in Lawrence; this game was 28-0 until just before halftime.


11) Texas Tech 35, Houston Baptist 33— Houston Baptist is I-AA, so this is kind of like a loss for Tech, except it isn’t officially a loss. I mean, Tech was a 40-point favorite and won by 2.


10) Louisiana 31, Iowa State 14— Ragin’ Cajuns’ DB’s dominated the Iowa State receivers; it helped that the refs didn’t seem interested in throwing any flags for defensive holding or PI. Iowa State was a 13-point favorite.


Louisiana missed two easy field goals, but ran a punt back for a TD and also ran a kickoff back for a TD. Saturday looked like it was a very rough day for placekickers, especially young ones.


9) Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31— Arkansas State’s coach is Blake Anderson; he deserves some joy in his life- his wife passed away just before last season started, and then he lost his dad this offseason. Guy is a good coach who could be moving up soon.


8) Game of the Day: Tex-San Antonio 51, Texas State 48 OT— Down 41-35, Texas State ran a punt back 91 yards for a TD with 1:13 left, but they missed the PAT, then missed a short FG in overtime, and the Roadrunners escaped with a win in Jeff Traylor’s debut as USTA’s coach.


Texas State played without its starting QB, who sat out with COVID-related issues.


7) Saturday’s football upsets:
— Louisiana (+13) 31, Iowa State 14
— Arkansas State (+14.5) 35, Kansas State 31
— Georgia Tech (+13) 16, Florida State 13
— Coastal Carolina (+6) 38, Kansas 23


6) Kansas State (8-1) won the SouthPoint’s prop bet by scoring the first touchdown of the day; the favorites were North Carolina (3-1), Appalachian State (7-2).


5) Some NFL guys had big paydays Saturday; Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara, Vikings’ RB Dalvin Cook and Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp all got contract extensions.


4) Oakland A’s got some very bad news; 3B Matt Chapman will have hip surgery, is out for the season. Thats a big loss- they somehow acquired Jake Lamb from Arizona right before I typed this. They must pay Arizona under the table to cut him, then they signed Lamb up when no one else claimed him.


3) Arizona/Red Sox are first two teams to clinch their under bets in season win total wagering.


2) Lakers 119, Rockets 96— Lakers win series 4-1; you get the feeling Mike D’Antoni will be the scapegoat for Houston’s 2nd-round exit. Now the Lakers hope Denver can force a Game 7 against the Clippers tonight, just to tire both teams out.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
AL East- Tampa Bay, Toronto
AL Central- Chicago, Minnesota
AL West- Oakland, Houston
AL Wild Cards- Cleveland, New York


NL East- Atlanta, Philadelphia
NL Central- Chicago, St Louis
NL West- Los Angeles, San Diego
NL Wild Cards- Miami, San Francisco


15 days left in the season, and the Marlins are still a playoff team.

 

[CNOTES]

NHL public betting, odds movement September 13
Patrick Everson


Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning tangle with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and the Islanders on Sunday in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The SuperBook has Tampa Bay a -140 favorite.


NHL betting odds are on the board as the Stanley Cup chase resumes with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals Sunday. The New York Islanders look to build on their much-needed Game 3 win when they meet the Tampa Bay Lightning.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s contest.

NHL odds movement


After dropping Games 1 and 2, the Islanders checked into this best-of-7 series with a 5-3 victory Friday, scoring the game winner with under four minutes left and adding a last-minute empty-netter. The SuperBook opened Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET faceoff at Lightning -145/Islanders +132 and moved to -140/+130 early Saturday, and there was no further movement through Saturday night.


The SuperBook opened the total at 5, with Over -140 and Under +120, and there was no movement throughout Saturday.


NHL public betting


The Consensus shows the public – or a modest majority, anyway – is on board with the Islanders for Game 4. Through Saturday night, New York was landing 55 percent of picks, and the Over was garnering 58 percent of picks.

 

[CNOTES]

3TAMPA BAY -4 NY ISLANDERS
TAMPA BAY is 30-11 ATS (15.3 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.








NHL
Long Sheet


Sunday, September 13


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA BAY (55-25-0-6, 116 pts.) vs. NY ISLANDERS (47-27-0-13, 107 pts.) - 9/13/2020, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 99-78 ATS (-16.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 14-4 ATS (+19.4 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 18-13 ATS (+33.8 Units) in road games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 19-12 ATS (+33.7 Units) in road games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 28-26 ATS (+58.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 117-55 ATS (+21.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 24-5 ATS (+14.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 20-8 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 7-5-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

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NHL


Sunday, September 13


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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ NY Islanders
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
NY Islanders is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home




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NHL
Dunkel


Sunday, September 13

Tampa Bay @ NY Islanders


Game 3-4
September 13, 2020 @ 3:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
12.568
NY Islanders
13.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-145
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(+125); Over

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


TB at NYI 03:00 PM
TB -145
O 5.5
+500 +500

 

[CNOTES]

COMPLETED PICKS


Past Completed Picks


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/13/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -325 Detail
09/11/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1125 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1250 Detail
09/09/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1050 Detail
09/08/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +0 Detail
09/07/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
09/06/2020 1-1-0 50.00% +175 Detail
09/05/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/04/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1225 Detail
09/03/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +400 Detail
09/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/01/2020 2-2-0 50.00% +425 Detail




TOTALS....17-15-0.......53.12%....+16.25

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


Most popular picks this week in the Westgate SuperContest:
344— Buffalo +6.5- W
337— LA Rams +3- W
304— Atlanta +2.5- L
303— Tennessee -2.5
280— Arizona +6.5- W
243— Pittsburgh -6


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 193,482
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Seahawks 38, Atlanta 25:
— Four trips to red zone, four TD’s for Seattle.
— Last three years, Seahawks are 14-9-2 ATS on the road.
— Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten games vs Atlanta.


— Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards in a losing cause.
— Atlanta gained 506 yards but was -2 (0-2) in turnovers.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 6-10-2 vs spread at home.


Buffalo 27, Jets 17
— Buffalo had a 19-yard edge in field position, very big.
— Jets are 9-17-1 ATS in last 27 games as a road underdog.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 4-7-2 ATS in AFC East road games.


— Buffalo threw the ball 26 times in first half; surprising.
— Bills won seven of last ten home openers (9-5 ATS in last 14)
— Buffalo is 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers as a home favorite.


Bears 27, Detroit 23
— Detroit led 23-6 after three quarters.
— Last four drives for Chicago: 22 plays, 155 yards, 21 points.
— Chicago won last five series games, winning last three visits to the Motor City.


— Guy on Lions dropped a pretty easy pass in end zone with 0:06 left.
— Last two years, Detroit is 7-10 ATS at home.
— Lions are 9-23-1 under Patricia; they were 36-28 under Caldwell, his predecessor.


Packers 43, Minnesota 34
— Packers scored five TD’s on nine possessions.
— Green Bay had a 14-yard advantage in field position.
— Over is 12-3 in Green Bay’s last 15 road openers


— Pack ran 76 plays for 522 yards; Vikings ran 49 plays.
— Vikings had 8 plays of 20+ yards; 7 of them came on 1st down.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is now 26-11-1 ATS as a home favorite.


New England 21, Dolphins 11
— Fitzpatrick threw 3 INT’s, including one in end zone with 1:28 when a TD would’ve at least covered the spread.
— Since 2014, Miami is 16-26 ATS as road underdogs
— Miami lost 11 of its last 12 visits to Foxboro.


— Newton threw for 155 yards, ran 15 times for 75 yards.
— Since 2015, New England is 25-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— NE won 17 of its last 19 home openers (10-7-2 ATS)


Washington 27, Eagles 17
— Eagles led 17-0 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Philly’s last 11 drives: 42 plays, 100 yards, 0 points, 3 turnovers.
— Washington had a 15-yard edge in field position.


— Washington’s points were all scored on drives that started in Philly territory.
— Ron Rivera is Washington’s coach; he had a chemo treatment during the week, took an IV at halftime. Tough freakin’ guy.
— As a head coach, Rivera is 13-7-1 ATS as a home underdog.


Raiders 34, Charlotte 30
— Jacobs carried ball 25 times for 93 yards, three TD’s
— Three of four Las Vegas TD drives were 75+ yards.
— Raiders covered five of their last six road openers.


— McCaffrey ran for 96 yards, but caught only three passes.
— Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays.
— Since 2016, Panthers are 14-18-1 ATS at home.


Jacksonville 27, Colts 20
— Indy outgained Jags 445-241, but was -2 in turnovers.
— Colts lost their last five trips to Jacksonville.
— Indy lost nine of its last 11 road openers, six of last seven season openers.


— Minshew completed 19-20 passes for 173 yards, three TD’s.
— Jacksonville covered 10 of last 15 AFC South home games.
— Jaguars last five home openers went over the total.


Baltimore 38, Browns 6
— Cleveland scored only one TD and missed the PAT after.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 10-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2003, Browns, are 6-10-2 ATS in road openers.


— Ravens had a 23-yard advantage in starting field position.
— Baltimore won its last five Week 1 games, by combined score of 177-26.
— Ravens won 14 of last 16 home openers (11-5 ATS).


Chargers 16, Cincinnati 13
— Bengals’ game-winning TD with 0:06 left was nullified by offensive pass interference call.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road openers.


— Bengals averaged 4.4 yards/pass attempt; their only TD drive was 44 yards.
— Last two years, Bengals are 5-10-2 ATS at home.
— Cincy is 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.


New Orleans 34, Buccaneers 23
— Buccaneers turned ball over three times; Brady threw a pick-6.
— Arians is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Tampa Bay won four of its last five road openers.


— Saints scored the only defensive TD of the week so far.
— Since 2014, New Orleans is 16-25-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Saints had a 24-yard edge in starting field position.


Cardinals 24, San Francisco 20
— WR Hopkins caught 14 passes for 151 yards; why did Houston trade HIM?
— Cardinals are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
— Arizona ran ball for 180 yards, converted 7-14 on third down.
— Redbirds won five of their last six visits here.


— 49ers are 7-16-2 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Niners covered twice in last ten NFC West home games.
— Six of 49ers’ last seven home openers stayed under the total
— Five of last eight series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.


Rams 20, Cowboys 17
— Dallas converted only 3-12 third down plays.
— Prescott averaged only 5.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Cowboys had only one play of 20+ yards.


— Rams held Dallas to a field goal in second half.
— Under McVay, Rams are 15-8 SU at home.
— Rams won/covered their last six home openers.

 

[CNOTES]

NHL public betting, odds movement September 14
Patrick Everson


John Klingberg and the Stars can finish off Reilly Smith and the Golden Knights in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals Monday. However, The SuperBook has Vegas a -170 favorite.


NHL betting odds are posted and getting attention for Monday’s lone playoff contest, Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. The surprising Dallas Stars can punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final with a victory over the Vegas Golden Knights.


The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NHL opening odds and early odds movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s contest.


NHL odds movement


The Stars nabbed a 2-1 victory Saturday in Game 4 to take a commanding 3-1 lead over the Golden Knights in the best-of-7 series. Dallas can advance with a win in Monday’s 8 p.m. ET clash, but as has been the case throughout, Vegas is the favorite, opening -165 at The SuperBook and moving to -170. Dallas is a +155 underdog.


The total was stable through Sunday night at The Superbook, sticking at 5 (Over -120).


NHL public betting


Despite Dallas being in control of this series, Vegas is still the popular play in the Consensus. Through Sunday night, the Golden Knights were attracting 66 percent of picks, and the Over was just a shade behind at 65 percent of picks.


***********************************




5DALLAS -6 VEGAS
DALLAS are 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) when playing their 4th road game in 7 days in the current season.








NHL
Dunkel


Monday, September 14

Dallas @ Vegas


Game 5-6
September 14, 2020 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
13.455
Vegas
11.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-170
5
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+150); Over








NHL
Long Sheet


Monday, September 14


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DALLAS (49-32-0-8, 106 pts.) vs. VEGAS (51-30-0-9, 111 pts.) - 9/14/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 31-23 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DALLAS is 16-11 ATS (+28.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
VEGAS is 97-82 ATS (+182.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-5 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-5-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+5.9 Units)

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NHL


Monday, September 14


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Dallas @ Vegas
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vegas's last 6 games when playing Dallas