Cnotes 2019 nfl preseason - news - notes - picks !

[CNOTES]

Jaguars plans to rest Foles vs. Eagles
August 13, 2019
By The Associated Press


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) Nick Foles won't get to play against his former team in the preseason.


Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said Tuesday he plans to sit most of his starters, including his quarterback, against Philadelphia this week. Marrone said starters will play in the team's third exhibition game, at Miami next week. But Marrone quickly added that Foles would only get on the field against the Dolphins if Jacksonville's starting offensive line is intact.


Left tackle Cam Robinson (knee), guard Andrew Norwell (quadriceps) and rookie right tackle Jawaan Taylor (knee) were limited participants in practice Tuesday.


''If the third preseason game comes and someone doesn't play, it's probably on the verge of just being cautious,'' Marrone said.


Marrone rested 31 players, including 20 starters, in the exhibition opener at Baltimore last week. The Jaguars crossed midfield for one play and lost 29-0 .


The decision to withhold so many starters was part of Marrone's "smarter approach" to training camp and the preseason , which came a year after Jacksonville lost a number of key guys - most notably receiver Marqise Lee - to injuries. Lee tore several ligaments in his left knee in the team's third preseason game.


''I think it's important that you play that (third preseason) game because you are presenting and you want to get the players in the right frame of mind,'' Marrone said.


Foles seemed to sense he wouldn't play against the Eagles.


''It'll mean a lot to see those guys pregame and catch up with a lot of those guys,'' he said. ''They're family to me, always will be. So it'll be good to see a lot of their faces and talk to them, see how they're doing.''


Foles led Philadelphia to four playoff victories over the last two seasons, including the franchise's first NFL title since 1960. He earned 2018 Super Bowl MVP honors and made himself the league's premier quarterback commodity. He signed a four-year, $88 million contract with Jacksonville in March that included $50.125 million guaranteed.


The 30-year-old Foles appears to be a significant upgrade for a team that's spent most of the last 15 years searching for a franchise quarterback. He's poised in the pocket, has a strong grasp of the offense and makes nearly every throw on time and into precise spots. He's also taken on a leadership role, arriving early and staying late.


On Tuesday, after struggling to connect on corner routes during red-zone drills, Foles stuck around after practice and worked to perfect those timing passes with receivers Chris Conley and Keelan Cole. He then opted to run sprints by himself back and forth across the field.


Foles has started 44 games in seven NFL seasons with Philadelphia, Kansas City and St. Louis. He has 68 touchdown passes and 33 interceptions.


Rookie Gardner Minshew is expected to start Thursday night against the Eagles. Foles will be watching and helping from the sideline.


''There's a method behind the madness, so we trust that,'' Foles said. ''We're getting those game reps out here (in practice). Obviously, it's not in a stadium, it's not under the lights, and that is a different animal in itself. But we're getting a lot of work, and when we do take the field, when coach decides that, we'll be ready to roll.''

 

[CNOTES]

Chargers' Ekeler, Jackson max out snaps
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


COSTA MESA, Calif. (AP) As Melvin Gordon continues his holdout from the Los Angeles Chargers' training camp, Justin Jackson and Austin Ekeler are showing why they should be in the mix to get more carries this season.


Both running backs have made a strong impression on coaches during the three weeks of practices as well as last Thursday's preseason opener against Arizona.


They will figure prominently as Los Angeles hosts New Orleans for joint workouts Thursday and Friday and then a game Sunday.


''I mean, even if he was here, we have the same mentality,'' Ekeler said. ''If he's here, we still have to move forward. If he's not here, we still have to move forward.''


Ekeler ran for 40 yards on five carries during the Arizona game. Jackson gained 22 yards on five carries, scoring from four yards out on the Chargers' second drive.


''They've done a good job of taking advantage of their opportunities,'' offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt said. ''I thought that they ran strong (last Thursday), made good decisions on their cuts and did a good job in protection. It was very nice to see the way they played.''


Ekeler's role continues to expand as he enters his third season. The 5-foot-10, 200-pound Ekeler has emerged as a shifty change-of-pace back who is dangerous catching the ball out of the backfield. He is the first undrafted player in franchise history to have a rushing and receiving TD in each of his first two years.


Ekeler's six receiving touchdowns also make him the first undrafted running back with five or more in his first two years since Dallas' Dan Reeves in 1966.


Ekeler said he is still receiving the same amount of reps that he would get if Gordon was on the field. He said the biggest difference is that he is getting more with the first team.


Jackson was a seventh-round pick last year but missed most of training camp with a hamstring injury. He started the season on the practice squad before being called up to the active roster before Week 4.


When Gordon was out for four games with a knee injury, Jackson ended up getting his opportunity. He had an 18-yard touchdown at Pittsburgh and gained 58 yards with a TD in a start at Kansas City.


The 6-0, 199-pound Jackson showed how much growth he's had during the offseason on his touchdown against Arizona. He was able to lower his shoulders and powered through for the score.


Running backs coach Alfredo Roberts said that run showed the game isn't too big for him.


''We're both trying to carve out our space in this offense, especially with Melvin not being here,'' said Jackson. ''We're trying to step up and work off each other. You have to plan for Austin's speed and my change of direction.''


There aren't any signs that Gordon will end his holdout soon. He is in the final year of his rookie contract and is slated to earn $5.6 million this season. Gordon has gained over 1,200 yards from scrimmage and scored 10 or more touchdowns in three straight seasons.


Whisenhunt said he wouldn't be concerned if Jackson and Ekeler were his starting backfield if Gordon doesn't report in time for the Sept. 8 opener against Indianapolis. Whisenhunt also didn't want to say whether Gordon could report the week of the opener and be ready go.


''I don't know that scenario. Like I said, we miss Melvin,'' he said. ''I think Melvin's a hell of a football player, but we're working with the guys that are here and they're doing a nice job.''

 

[CNOTES]

Colts rookie CB to get test against Browns
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


WESTFIELD, Ind. (AP) Indianapolis Colts cornerback Rock Ya-Sin has impressed coaches with his playmaking skills.


He passed another significant milestone Wednesday..


In the first of two joint practices against Cleveland, Ya-Sin held his own against the Browns' receivers, and quarterback Baker Mayfield never even challenged the rookie in seven-on-seven or 11-on-11 drills.


''I felt like I competed well, felt like I worked hard,'' Ya-Sin said. ''I definitely want to continue to get better, whether it's against a guy on our team or their team.''


Ya-Sin didn't go one-on-one with either of the Browns' projected starting receivers - Odell Beckham Jr. or Jarvis Landry, the talented college teammates who were reunited in a draft-week trade. Landry did limited work, none against Ya-Sin, and Beckham again sat out though he was dressed.


Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said Beckham hasn't practiced recently because he ''has a little something going on in there'' and that he hopes the Browns top receiver returns ''soon.''


It could happen Thursday when the Browns will help the Colts close out training camp on the Grand Park Sports Campus in suburban Indianapolis. The teams will square off for a third time in Saturday's preseason game, just a short drive away from Westfield, Indiana, where both bleacher sections were almost full and almost equally divided between Browns and Colts fans.


Aside from one brief skirmish between Colts running back D'Onta Foreman and Browns cornerback Lenzy Pipkins, the first workout went pretty smoothly.


''We're not going to take anything from anybody,'' Kitchens said, explaining why he might not discipline any of his players for the dust-up.


Indy's biggest concern continues to be Andrew Luck's lower left leg injury, which has kept their starting quarterback off the field for all but three practices since April. Luck did not speak with reporters Wednesday but did watch practice in street clothes with his ankle and lower calf areas appearing to be taped.


Luck's return also remains unclear though a decision on his availability for the Sept. 8 regular-season opener could be made in less than two weeks.


''You have to be able to make a call and move from there whether we're full speed with Andrew after that third preseason game or, if at that point, we are going with Jacoby (Brissett),'' coach Frank Reich said.


But the joint practices are about more than known commodities.


For instance, the Colts are eager to see how their second-round draft pick fares against new faces and crafty veterans.


''The experience that you get as a young rookie going against another skill set, the learning experience you get from knowing yourself and knowing another opponent and then what works for you and what didn't work is invaluable,'' defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus said. ''We tell our players this all the time - it doesn't matter if it was a good experience or a bad experience, what matters is what you learned after the fact.''


Ya-Sin has proven himself a quick learner at every stop he's been lately.


Since December 2017, the Football Championship Subdivision standout transferred to Temple for his final season, was chosen a captain, made scouts take notice at the Senior Bowl and started moving quickly up draft boards with workouts at the NFL's annual combine and Temple.


The Colts thought highly enough of him to take him with their first draft pick in April, No. 34 overall.


What they liked on tape was Ya-Sin's long arms, sturdy body and physical nature - a combination that allows him to play bigger than his listed size of 6-feet, 190 pounds.


But what really sets him apart is his ability to make big plays. He's gotten his hands on the ball almost every day at camp until Wednesday when he never got a chance. And that might be the best compliment of all.


''It's kind of surreal, like a dream come true,'' Ya-Sin said, referring to the opportunity to line up against some of the guys he's been watching on television for years. ''I feel like I worked and created an environment where I could see myself learning.''

 

[CNOTES]

Chiefs defensive staff brings change
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


ST. JOSEPH, Mo. (AP) The first step in what became a top-to-bottom overhaul of the Kansas City Chiefs defense began when coach Andy Reid replaced coordinator Bob Sutton with Steve Spagnuolo, the former St. Louis Rams coach and longtime NFL defensive coordinator.


It was an obvious, unsurprising move in many ways: The two had worked together for nearly a decade in Philadelphia, and Spagnuolo was looking to get back into coaching after taking a year off.


The rest of the steps in building a defensive staff were a little more surprising.


For one thing, the choices came from every corner of the coaching landscape.


Linebackers coach Matt House was plucked away from the college ranks, where he had been serving as the successful defensive coordinator at Kentucky. Defensive line coach Brendan Daly had just helped the Patriots win another Super Bowl. Cornerbacks coach Sam Madison had been working in television, his on-field work limited mostly to preparing prospects for the NFL combine.


Throw in new defensive backs coach Dave Merritt, who spent last season with the Cardinals, and holdover Britt Reid - the head coach's son - and it's quite a collection of backgrounds and skill sets.


Just what Spagnuolo had in mind.


''All of these coaches are familiar with Steve, love the game, and are good teachers that have had success in their careers,'' said Reid, who worked closely with Spagnuolo in assembling the staff.


Their task is simple: Turn a defense that was such a liability last season, and in many ways it cost the Chiefs a spot in the Super Bowl, into a unit that is at minimum mediocre. Or at best able to give the ball back quickly and efficiently to what is arguably the league's most dynamic offense.


''I mean, we've got all the right pieces as far as instructors and teachers go, you know?'' Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu said. ''It's about us going out there and being consistent.''


House may be the most interesting of the position coaches, in part because of the hurdles it took for him to get hired. The news leaked in early February that the Chiefs were interested, but his school announced a few days later that House had decided to stay with the program.


Then word filtered out of Lexington that House wanted to take the job in Kansas City, but he was trapped because of a prohibitive buyout - an issue that ultimately got resolved.


Now he's working with a linebacker corps still adjusting to Spagnuolo's new 4-3 scheme.


''I like the energy he brings every day,'' said Anthony Hitchens, who is slated to started at one of the inside linebacker spots. ''He's definitely an alpha and we need more guys like that. He has a lot of energy and he's also a veteran. He knows about good football.''


Daly went from the Super Bowl champions to a Super Bowl contender, leaving coach Bill Belichick's program in New England for a similar job in Kansas City. He's made several other stops in both the NFL and college football, but Daly certainly brings with him a winning pedigree.


Madison played 12 seasons in the league, including a three-year stint with Spagnuolo as his own coordinator with the Giants. But the extent of his coaching experience amounts to an internship under Spagnuolo in St. Louis, then time working with the Ravens, Giants, Dolphins and Seahawks.


''When he called, I jumped at the opportunity,'' Madison said. ''For the last 10 years I've been doing radio and television. Training a lot of kids in the offseason, getting kids ready and prepared for their college training camps and getting ready for combines and stuff like that.''


Now he's working with Mathieu and Co. on a vastly revamped defensive backfield, drawing on a unique path toward being an assistant coach with the three-time defending AFC West champions.


Madison fits right in with the rest of their defensive assistants.


''I think the leadership is a big thing,'' said Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has been facing the retooled defense throughout camp. ''Guys are really taking accountability for knowing every single position on that defense. I think that's the biggest thing - they're being assignment-sound, they're doing exactly what the coaches are telling them to do and it's working.''


NOTES: WR Sammy Watkins missed practice Wednesday with an illness. ... DE Frank Clark (hip) was on hand but did not practice. He was ill Tuesday. ... The Chiefs have their final workout of training camp at Missouri Western on Thursday morning. They play Pittsburgh on Saturday in their second preseason game before resuming their work at their own facility in Kansas City next week.

 

[CNOTES]

Garoppolo has rough day for 49ers
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Jimmy Garoppolo had a practice to forget in his final session before facing an opposing defense for the first time since suffering a season-ending knee injury in September.


Garoppolo threw interceptions on five straight pass attempts at practice for the San Francisco 49ers on Wednesday, by far his worst session since his return from the torn ACL that cut short his 2018 season after three games.


''I was the defensive coach today so I was pumped,'' coach Kyle Shanahan said. ''The defense did great today. Obviously, he struggled. You hope to never have a day like that. But I don't think it's never not happened to anyone. When you do that, you hope you can practice long enough and you have a chance to play out of it.''


Garoppolo's day went off the rails when safety Jaquiski Tartt intercepted a pass that was tipped by linebacker Kwon Alexander. Free safety Tarvarius Moore added two more interceptions, cornerback Richard Sherman jumped in front of tight end Ross Dwelley for one of his own and cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon had one in the end zone on an attempt to Dante Pettis.


Garoppolo settled down a bit after that and did lead a two-minute drill into the red zone before Tartt nearly came up with another interception on the final play, only to have it go through his hands to Jordan Matthews for a completion short of the goal line.


Shanahan said he hopes a practice like this will be a learning experience for Garoppolo on how to deal with frustration when things don't go the right way in games.


''You want so badly to make it up the next play but the next play you still have to make the right decision and go with what the defense gives you,'' Shanahan said. ''Sometimes it's hard to make the right decisions when you're fired up and competitive. Usually when you make a bad play, it makes your mind go a little bit sideways. That's why it is sometimes a good situation to put guys in and when that does happen sometimes you try to protect them a little bit in the game. But in practice it's the exact opposite. When there's an issue, you kind of poke at it a little bit more and see how guys react.''


Garoppolo will get a chance to rebound when the 49ers hold joint practices with the Denver Broncos on Friday and Saturday in preparation for an exhibition game. This will be Garoppolo's first time facing an opposing defense since injuring his knee in Kansas City last Sept. 23. He will also get a chance to play in the game on Monday night.


The one bright spot in Garoppolo's poor performance was that it showed that maybe the 49ers will have a more opportunistic defense this season after setting NFL records for futility with just two interceptions and seven takeaways all last season.


San Francisco goes into the joint practices a bit short-handed, especially on the defensive line where starting defensive ends Dee Ford and Nick Bosa remain sidelined. Ford (knee tendinitis) could return to practice next week for the first time since July 30.


Bosa had a severe ankle injury last week and his status for the season opener remains in doubt. Bosa worked out on the side Wednesday in an encouraging sign that he is making progress.


Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh said making this missed time even more crucial is the fact that the team is implementing new techniques on the defensive line under coach Kris Kocurek.


''That stuff, to me, is important,'' Saleh said. ''Do I think it will hinder us from still being able to get after the passer? No, I don't think it will be too bad. I feel like there's going to be an adjustment. ... We're going to have a high celling once those guys get back of trying to master those techniques and master the relationship they have with one another so they can operate at a very high level.''


NOTES: LT Joe Staley didn't take part in team drills with pectoral soreness. ... TE George Kittle remains day to day with tightness in his calf. ... S Jimmie Ward has been cleared to practice but will still be held out of contact after breaking his collarbone during the offseason program. ... Rookie LB Dre Greenlaw was held out of contact drills because of a stinger suffered in practice Tuesday. ... DL Jullian Taylor (back) and TE Levine Toilolo (shoulder) didn't practice.

 

[CNOTES]

Lions-Texans practice reunites coaches
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


HOUSTON (AP) Wednesday's joint practice between the Texans and Lions was a reunion for Houston coach Bill O'Brien and Detroit coach Matt Patricia.


The two worked as assistants with the New England Patriots from 2007-11.


O'Brien said the first of two practices between these teams before Saturday's preseason game ran like clockwork.


''He and I, we go back a long way, coached together in New England, didn't really even have to meet about this,'' O'Brien said. ''We just knew how it would work. It was smooth operation.''


O'Brien and Patricia have remained close friends from their time working together under New England coach Bill Belichick, and Patricia said it was easy to fall right back into their old routine when they got back together on Wednesday.


''We spent a lot of time together at New England,'' Patricia said. ''He was the offensive coordinator, I was the defensive coordinator. It's funny when we get into practices like this, it's just like old times kind of: `Hey what do you want to do this period? Let's do this. How many reps here? What does this look like?'


''That conversation comes right back to what we did a long time ago.''


The teams went through about a two-hour practice on Wednesday morning in which they conducted drills separately early in the day before working together. Patricia, recovering from offseason leg surgery, zipped around from field to field on a four-wheeler, and O'Brien was seen standing near his ATV and chatting with him several times during practice.


It is the second consecutive week both teams have held joint practices. The Texans worked out with the Packers for two days last week before Thursday's preseason opener at Green Bay. Detroit hosted Belichick and the Patriots for two workouts in advance of the team's first preseason game on Thursday.


Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson and Lions signal caller Matt Stafford took many of the snaps in Wednesday's workouts. They both made some nice passes, with Stafford connecting with first-round pick T.J. Hockenson on one long throw.


The Lions believe that chasing around dual-threat quarterback Watson for a few days this week will help them prepare for their season opener when they'll meet Arizona and Kyler Murray, last year's Heisman Trophy winner and the top overall pick in this year's draft.


Along with dealing with the Texans, the Lions were also fighting the weather conditions Wednesday. Where they normally practice in Allen Park, Michigan, temperatures are usually in the low to mid-70s in the mornings. In Houston on Wednesday temperatures soared to above 90 degrees with high humidity by the time practice wrapped up just before 11 a.m.


Patricia said he and his staff have been getting the team ready for the conditions for a while.


''Making sure that we're doing a good job with our players to hydrate and to make sure they are prepared,'' he said. ''We've tried to stress that through the last 48 hours or so through the travel. Obviously getting on the plane, that dehydrates you, too. ... We're just going to have to do a really good job of monitoring everything. I've talked to coach O'Brien at length about taking his guidance and his lead as far as the heat is concerned because he is obviously in tune with it a little bit more than we are.''


Patricia said it's not only important to be cognizant of the heat's effect while practice is going on, but also later in the day and evening as they prepare for a second day in the conditions Thursday.

 

[CNOTES]

Pats, Titans practice like family reunion
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) The Patriots' rookies surprised Titans coach Mike Vrabel at the start of their joint practice by serenading him for his 44th birthday.


Vrabel knows who likely instigated the singing.


''That was something that was unexpected but very appreciated,'' Vrabel said Wednesday. ''It was a good idea by whoever came up with it. Probably Tom or Bill.''


That would be either former teammate Tom Brady or Bill Belichick, the coach Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings with as a linebacker during his 14-year career. Now Vrabel is in his second season as head coach with the Tennessee Titans hosting Belichick and the Patriots for two days of practices before Saturday night's preseason game.


This session featured lots of trash talking and felt much more like a family reunion than an NFL training camp with all the ties between these franchises.


Vrabel started the talk as soon as Brady came onto the field, yelling at the three-time NFL MVP for walking and not jogging onto the field. Brady told Vrabel to pay attention to his own work in just the start of the barking between teams with lots of ties and former players now on the other roster.


The Titans coach stayed close to his defense working against Brady, all the better for the two to chirp at each other.


''It brought back a lot of memories just to be able to sit out there and they make a play and he turns around and says, `Mikey you better cover that, you guys need to do this.' I'm sure I had plenty to say too,'' Vrabel said. ''It was a lot of fun. We have a lot of respect for those guys. We can learn a lot from the way they practice and how they operate.''


Cornerbacks Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler and running back Dion Lewis all won Super Bowl rings with the Patriots before signing with Tennessee as free agents. Patriots cornerback Jason McCourty never played in the postseason through eight years with the Titans before finally joining his twin brother, Devin, in the New England secondary last season.


Ryan jumped up trying to knock down a Brady pass from his old teammate only to get knocked down by Patriots right tackle Marcus Cannon.


''It's all good,'' Ryan said. ''We're competing. Tom said that he'll know every time I'm blitzing because he knows my mannerisms. I think I tricked him on one.''


Brady got the better of a Titans' defense Wednesday that was sixth against the pass and third in fewest points allowed. Ryan said Brady dominates in a practice setting where defenders can't use all their tricks.


''When you're on top, he's going to throw it low,'' Ryan said. ''You're in front, he's going to throw it behind. I mean if you can't get pressure on him and sack him like we can't do in practice, he's going to be pretty accurate. But we just want to be on body and we want to be close and challenge those receivers.''


The Titans made clear they want their version of the Patriot Way when general manager Jon Robinson, who got his NFL start with the Patriots, hired Vrabel as their new coach in January 2018.


Vrabel and the Titans routed Belichick and the Patriots 34-10 last November. But the Patriots finished the season with their sixth Super Bowl title while Tennessee just missed the playoffs losing the regular season finale. Belichick said Vrabel's been a friend for a long time and did a great job in that game last season.


''We really got handled down here,'' Belichick said. ''He's got an excellent staff, and I'm sure that he's teaching these guys a lot of football. He was really smart player, a very fundamental player, so I'm sure that you can see those strengths in the way he coaches his team.''


NOTES: Titans WR Adam Humphries went to the locker room during practice, while Patriots OL Dan Skipper was taken to a tent on a cart for treatment in the heat. ... Titans RB Derrick Henry (left calf) caught some passes from Robinson before working in a sand pit. He has not practiced since the opening day of camp.

 

[CNOTES]

Fitzpatrick competes for Dolphins job
August 14, 2019
By The Associated Press


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) It didn't take Ryan Fitzpatrick long to get re-acclimated to a familiar setting.


The journeyman quarterback who's preparing for his 15th NFL season is back on the practice fields at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' training facility this week, this time competing for a starting job with the Miami Dolphins.


Fitzpatrick spent the past two seasons with the Bucs, mostly as a backup to 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Jameis Winston.


With the Dolphins, he's trying to beat out second-year pro Josh Rosen, another young passer hoping to prove he's a franchise QB.


''Being on eight teams, this has happened more than once, where I've gotten to go back,'' Fitzpatrick said of this homecoming for a pair of joint workouts leading to Friday night's preseason game between his last two employers.


''It's really cool. man. Just him being back here in Tampa,'' Winston said Wednesday. ''He's a fun-loving guy ... a great leader.''


Fitzpatrick also was a big help to the Bucs' quarterback, generously sharing knowledge and experience gleaned from a meandering career that also includes stops with the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans and Jets.


Now, he's doing the same with Miami, even though he and Rosen are competing for the starting job.


Coach Brian Flores has declared Fitzpatrick the leader in the competition, however Rosen may be closing the gap after directing three scoring drives in last week's preseason opener and getting some work with the Dolphins' No. 1 offense in joint practices against Tampa Bay.


Rosen said Fitzpatrick has been ''unbelievably helpful ... probably one of the best mentors I've had in the sport.''


''It's pretty impressive how he can just sort of walk up to the line and see (things) and just know what front, what coverage, everything they're trying to do, and I'm just trying to get to that level,'' Rosen said.


''I think I have a sort of special skillset, so that when I can put those two together, it can be special,'' the young quarterback added. ''But it's going to be a long road, a lot of film, a lot of studying, and I'm just indebted to Fitz for how selfless he's being.''


As far as Fitzpatrick is concerned, it's part of the job.


He became the first player in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in three consecutive games, leading Tampa Bay to a 2-1 start last season while Winston was serving a suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.


Winston was inconsistent when he returned, briefly losing the starting job before regaining it and playing well enough down the stretch that the Bucs brought him back for the final year of his rookie contract at a salary of nearly $21 million.


''I think last year was a difficult situation for a lot of different reasons; but I also look at the way he played down the stretch and he played some really good football,'' Fitzpatrick said about his decision to sign with Miami in the offseason.


''For me at least, football is a lot more fun when I'm out there playing,'' he added. ''Having the opportunity to go to Miami and compete, that's why I decided to do what I did.''


Rosen took some snaps with the first team offense during Tuesday's workout in Tampa, then worked exclusively with the starters on Wednesday.


Flores said no conclusions should be drawn from the way the workload was divided the past two days, adding it had more to do with wanting both quarterbacks to benefit from various looks presented by Tampa Bay's defense.


''Fitz saw it (Tuesday). We wanted Josh to see it see it (Wednesday), and that's really what that was. ... From what I saw, I thought he had a good day. He's heading in the right direction,'' said Flores, who later downplayed whether Rosen is closer to becoming No. 1.


''Look, it's a competition and it's a competition at every position,'' the rookie coach said. ''I think my job is to help these guys become the best players they can possibly be. And the competition is part of that. Who's leading? Who's not leading? That's irrelevant to me. I want these guys to get better and improve every day. That' where I'm at with it.''


Flores had even less to say about how whether there's concern about whether running back Kenyan Drake will be ready to return by next month's regular season opener after injuring his right foot.


Drake was wearing a walking boot Wednesday after limping off the practice field the previous day.


''We take things day-to-day here. The opener's down the road,'' Flores said. ''He's got a little injury, and I think ... he's just going to take it day-to-day. He's got a great attitude about it. I think he'll be OK.''

 

[CNOTES]

Seahawks at Vikings
August 14, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview
Seattle at Minnesota


A pair of NFC teams coming off SU and ATS wins in Week 1 of the preseason meet in Minnesota on Sunday night, as it's a high-profile, under the lights preseason contest for the Seahawks and Vikings.


Minnesota's 34-25 win last week was arguably the more impressive of the two, as they managed to put up 35 points against the Saints in New Orleans. Strong performances by QB's Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter were a big reason for that result, as both guys managed to throw a TD pass and were a combined 13-for-20 throwing the ball. Kirk Cousins did his thing as well in one drive going 4-for-4 for 65 yards and a TD, and he'll likely cut into a bit of the playing time for Mannion and Sloter in this one.


From Seattle's perspective, their 22-14 win at home was fueled by a strong all around effort from QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch went 11-for-15 throwing the ball for 109 yards and a TD, but it was his four rushes that totalled 38 yards and a TD that helped Seattle grab the lead in the 3rd quarter for good. Lynch is a guy that's looking to revitalize his career after his failed stint in Denver as a 1st round pick, and based off one performance, his dual-threat ability is something that Seattle covets.


Doing it at home is one thing though, as can Lynch and company get it done on the road in prime time?


NFL Odds: Minnesota (-4.5); Total set at 41.5


As is the case with NFL preseason lines every week, there is significant line movement early on in the week and this game is no different. Bettors have already shown their hand in terms of backing the Vikings and the 'under', given that this line originally opened up at Minnesota -3.5 and a total of 42.


An average of 28 points put up between them on offense last week makes the 'under' look a little puzzling to some, especially given the QB battles both teams seemingly have going on for that backup role. But without question both sides would like to tighten things up defensively – especially in Minnesota's case, and I do suspect that's what we see to a degree form both sides in this one.


Seattle and Minnesota also have a recent history of preseason games finishing with 41 or fewer points, as they've met in August each of the past three years, and last year's 21-20 Minnesota win was the highest point total of the three. It was also the only one played in Week 3 of the preseason – typically the dress rehearsal game for starters – as the previous two years they met in Week 2 as they are this season, and those games finished with 33 and 29 points respectively.


So the 'under definitely makes a lot of sense here, and typically you'd better have a few good reasons to go against line moves in general during the preseason, and outside of last week's offensive performance by both sides, there really isn't a lot to suggest otherwise this week. Given that Seattle's 2nd preseason game has cashed 'under' tickets in each of the past four years, it would be that side of the total where I believe you can only look.


However, it's actually the side that may present a slightly better betting opportunity as there is at least one strong enough reason to go against the line move that's gone Minnesota's way already.


Going back to the start of the 2011 NFL season – essentially a year before the Russell Wilson era started there – the Seahawks have not minded travelling for preseason games at all. In road games outside of the Pacific Time zone (PST), Seattle has gone 7-1 ATS overall, and 5-0 ATS when lined as an underdog. That's an ATS run that has significant weight to stand on for this game, especially when you consider that QB Geno Smith will be looking to up his performance after what he saw from Lynch a week ago.


And for as much as Minnesota would like to see improvement on defense, it may be hard to completely flip that around in just a week. Mike Zimmer's defense have also been built around getting pressure and being physical, and those are two things that can be very limited in August action. At the same time, Mannion and Sloter are two guys I wouldn't count on lighting up the stat sheet again, which makes it very tough to back Minnesota at anything over a FG in this case.


The early money may have got the best of the number on Minnesota now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some buy back come Seattle's way the closer we get to kickoff. Remember, as a stand alone, SNF game, most of the action here has yet to hit the board, and I'm looking to stay ahead of the curve.


Best Bet: Seattle ATS

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Preseason Essentials
August 15, 2019
By Tony Mejia

Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change. Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Eagles at Jaguars (-3, 35) - 7:00 PM EST


Phildadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS in season)
Quarterback Rotation: Cody Kessler, Clayton Thorson (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane


Anyone looking to watch Nick Foles try to match Carson Wentz for even a series is going to be awfully disappointed. After neither played in Week 1, both projected starters are expected to watch from the sidelines in Jacksonville too. Nate Sudfeld got his wrist broken after a late hit against Tennessee last week, so Kessler and Thorson will be at the controls here. Pedersen is 2-1 in Week 2 of the preseason and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz will likely want to see more from a unit that got lit up by the Titans.


Jacksonville
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (8-9 SU, 7-8-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Gardner Minshew, Tanner Lee, Alex McGough
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: John Reid


Minshew saw the bulk of the work as the Jags were shut out by the Ravens, so the expectation is he'll play at least the first half on Thursday. Marrone has already given Jags' fans the heads up that they won't see any starters in this second contest, but the hope is that the backups will be much better than they were up in Baltimore. First-round pick Josh Allen will look to be a disruptive force up front. Marrone has split his four Week 2 preseason games and has seen 11 of his 18 go 'under.'




Jets (-1 ½, 44 ½) at Falcons - 7:30 PM EST


N.Y. Jets
Head Coach: Adam Gase (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Darnold, Trevor Siemian, Davis Webb, Luke Falk
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Manish Mehta


New defensive coordinator Gregg Williams blitzes in exhibitions and wasn't at all thrilled that he couldn't get home and his defensive backs got carved up by the Giants last week. This will be a huge opportunity for guys looking to impress on that side of the ball. Sam Darnold's entire projected started interior line won't play, so it remains to be seen whether he plays more than a series. New kicker Tyler Bertolet will look to solidify his hold on the gig after Chandler Catanzaro retired. The 'over' is 9-3-1 in Gase's 13 preseason contests as head coach of the Dolphins and Jets. He was 0-3 in Week 2 contests with Miami.




Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5-13 SU, 4-14 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter


The Falcons dropped the Hall of Fame Game in addition to last week's high-scoring contest in Miami, so this is Quinn's third look at his team in a game setting. A few offensive linemen are missing too, but Matt Ryan will debut and is likely going to play into the second quarter. Simms, who was signed when Kurt Benkert went on IR, should mop up ahead of WR/QB Daniel Etling, who was just claimed after being waived by New England. Quinn is 0-4 in the third preseason game and carries a 10-game preseason losing streak into this game, last winning on Sept. 1, 2016. The under is 6-11-1 in his preseason games.




Bengals at Redskins (-3, 41) - 7:30 PM EST


Cincinnati
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jeff Driskel, Ryan Finley (R), Jake Dolegala (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tyler Dragon


The Chiefs routed the Bengals last week to spoil Taylor's debut, but the head coach did see a few bright spots, which included Finley showing out and climbing into the primary backup role ahead of Driskel, who has started getting reps at receiver. Dalton led a drive for a TD against the Chiefs and should be in for a longer stint with backs Joe Mixon, Giovani Bernard and Trayveon Williams all expected to play through ailments. New defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo saw the first-team defense get overwhelmed by Kansas City, which ended up scoring 38 points in making the entire unit look porous. It will be interesting if communication improves as they look to handle a second straight road game.


Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (12-9 SU, 11-10 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins (Rookie), Jalan McClendon
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Kareem Copeland


The 'Skins still don't have Colt McCoy (leg soreness) available and lost Josh Woodrum to a torn pectoral muscle, so with McClendon signing this week, it's expected that Keenum and Haskins will get all the snaps as they try and impress in order to secure a starting that spot that looks up for grabs. Haskins, the No. 15 pick, sabotaged an effective debut with costly turnovers, so he'll be among Thursday's most scrutinized subjects. New OC Kevin O'Connell is considered a lock to be a future head coach and is calling plays while working with Haskins, so he should take some shots against the Bengals despite holes along the offensive line. Gruden has won four of five Week 2 games and is 7-3 SU at home in the preseason.




Packers at Ravens (-4, 37) - 7:30 PM EST


Green Bay
Head Coach: Matt LeFleur (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle, Manny Wilkins (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tom Silverstein




Rodgers is expected to play about a quarter, debuting for the first time with LeFleur calling the plays into the future Hall of Famer. We'll see how their relationship evolves, but Rodgers is likely to have most of the offense around him with RB Aaron Jones expected to play after dealing with a hamstring issue. Kizer and Boyle threw for 142 yards and three TDs, showing off great chemistry with the team's younger receivers. A new-look defense lost projected top linebacker Oren Burks and will be looking to improve after giving up 26 points in holding off Houston.


Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (34-12 SU, 31-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Lamar Jackson, Trace McSorley (R), Joe Callahan
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley


Jackson played more than he was expected to last week and didn't tuck it and run, so it's clear that the Ravens want him to work on his passing from the pocket. He completed 19-of-25 in Tuesday's practice and will be looking to build on that in probably working another three series before giving way to McSorley and Callahan, a former Packer. Robert Griffin III is out for the entire preseason with a hairline fracture in his thumb. The Ravens have won 14 consectuive preseason games, last losing on Sept. 3, 2015. They blanked the Jags 29-0 last week. Harbaugh has gone 8-3 in Week 2 and has dropped just one preseason home game since mid-August of '13.




Raiders at Cardinals (-3, 40 ½) - 8 PM EST, ESPN


Oakland
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (34-17 SU, 19-12-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Derek Carr, Mike Glennon, Nathan Peterman
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Paul Gutierrez


The Raiders dominated a Rams squad that ran a vanilla offense last week and managed just a field goal, so their defense will get their first true test here. Carr will play for the first time despite Antonio Brown remaining on the sidelines, so we'll get to see what chemistry has developed with the team's other receivers. Offseason Tyrell Williams and a pair of rookies HBO's Hard Knocks' has focused on, Clemson's Hunter Renfrow and UC Davis' Keelan Doss, will get long looks. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs will also get touches to try and balance out a passing attack that looked uneven at best in the opener. Gruden has an incredible record in Week 1 of the preseason but has really struggled in his second games.


Arizona
Head Coach: Kliff Kingsbury (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kyler Murray (R), Brett Hundley, Chad Kanoff, Drew Anderson (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Bob McManaman


The Cardinals saw Murray put together an impressive debut and ran a mostly vanilla offense despite Kingsbury's stated desire to push tempo and unveil some innovations. The expectation is that Arizona won't show off many bells and whistles this early in the preseason, but they will want to see the training wheels come off some for top QBs Murray and Hundley. There's also a lot of competition at receiver that must shake out, so the battle for No. 3 between Kanoff and Anderson, a rookie from Murray State, should lead to the ball being in the air often. .

 

[CNOTES]

By: Josh Inglis


JAGS’ DEPTH KEEPS IT LOW


With both offenses having scored a combined 10 points last week, it makes sense that the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars opened Week 2 with the lowest total on the NFL odds board. The Jaguars' lack of depth is a major reason behind this as head coach Doug Marrone stated earlier this week, “We have to see what the depth is. Right now it’s not good. We have to develop those guys.”


The depth at quarterback for Jacksonville is also a major factor in the low total. The Jaguars have Tanner Lee (0-3, 0 yards, INT pick-six) and Alex McGough (3-8, 19 yards) battling for the No. 3 spot. Look for those two to get ample time as Marrone sits most starters and needs to evaluate his QB ranks. We don’t see the Jags’ QBs running up the score against the Eagles and are looking to take the Under 34.5.


FALCONS FEAST ON BANGED-UP CORNERS


The New York Jets secondary allowed three different New York Giants quarterbacks to throw for touchdowns last week. Now the Jets' cornerbacks, their weakest position heading into 2019, are in even more trouble with injuries to their top CB and his backup.


“This is a great opportunity for a lot of guys. Like somebody has a chance to step up and make a name for themselves,” Jets head coach Adam Gase said. This revolving door for cornerback depth is great news for the Atlanta Falcons and their wide receivers.


Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has “difficult decisions” when it comes to how many wide receivers he wants to keep on the 53-man roster. He can “envision” keeping seven receivers which means the Falcons will give their receivers every chance to earn a roster spot against a depleted Jets secondary. This could help push the total Over 44.5 and we will be taking a good look at the first-half total as well.


BENGALS BACKS TO BOUNCE BACK


After running the ball just 12 times for an unimpressive 21 yards last week, look for Cincinnati Bengals coach Zac Taylor to establish more of a running plan in Week 2 versus the Washington Redskins. Taylor has said that top running backs Joe Mixon and Geovani Bernard will be available Thursday, helping the Bengals control the clock and eat minutes.


With Cincinnati quarterback Jeff Driskel taking reps at wide receiver this week, expect rookie quarterback Ryan Finley (13-18, 108 yards, TD, INT) to take the majority of the snaps after starter Andy Dalton sees his limited action. The Bengals will slow this game down, evaluate their running game and play a little harder defense after giving up 38 points to the Chiefs last week. We are on the full-game Under at 41.


RAVENS RIDE PRESEASON DOMINANCE


Preseason trends are about as useful as 10,000 forks when all you need is a knife. However, the Baltimore Ravens have won 14-straight preseason games (12-2 ATS) and look to make it 15 as they host the Green Bay Packers as 4-point favorites (opened as high as -5.5).


In Baltimore’s favor, starting quarterback Lamar Jackson will see plenty of action after playing three
series last week. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman said they “aren’t trying to reinvent football” as they run a simple and basic offensive playbook early in the preseason, which is benefitting Jackson greatly (4-6, 59 yards, TD last week).


Conversely, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur wasn’t exactly pleased with his team who committed 12 penalties for 102 yards last week and missed two dozen tackles resulting in an extra 164 yards for the Houston Texans in Green Bay’s 28-26 win.


Losing starting inside linebacker Oren Burks isn’t going to help the defense either as two rookies, a sophomore and a practice-squad holdover will compete to fill the vacancy. We are taking the Ravens to continue their preseason dominance and jumping on the Ravens spread.


AIR RAID RECEIVERS TO SHOWCASE VS RAIDERS


The Arizona Cardinals head into Thursday’s contest versus the Oakland Raiders as 3-point favorites. Arizona has had a full week’s worth of rest while the Raiders will be playing on a short week that was littered with distractions. Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury and his Air Raid offense will need plenty of receivers heading into 2019.


“I’m not sure. I think six, seven — somewhere in there,” Kingsbury said this week when asked about how many receivers he was going to keep on the 53-man roster. He added, “I think it depends on how guys perform the last three weeks, so we’ll see how that plays out.”


Much like the Falcons, expect the Cardinals to pass a little more to better evaluate their receiver depth. The Raiders are dealing with some cornerback depth issues as well and may find themselves getting exploited on Thursday. We are riding the home team at -3.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Preseason Essentials
Tony Mejia


Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change.


Head Coach: Sean McDermott (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Tyree Jackson (R)


LeSean McCoy is expected to play after sitting out the opener, so the Bills first-team offense will play at least a quarter at full strength. Buffalo practiced for a couple of days against Carolina and will be looking to improve to 2-0 in the preseason for the first time since 2013. Allen has looked sharp and will look to take a step forward this preseason after missing a few deep balls in last week's win over the Colts. While Barkley is entrenched as the backup, Jackson, a rookie from Buffalo, needs to rebound from a rough first showing..


Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (19-14 SU, 18-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier (R)


Cam Newton underwent offseason shoulder surgery but has been throwing the ball downfield and will likely play on Friday night despite nothing being set in stone. If he gets out there, expect all the starters healthy enough to join him to do so. Christian McCaffrey, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen have all excelled early. The Panthers won three of four preseason contests in 2018, including the opener as a three-point underdog at Buffalo, 28-23. Ron Rivera has switched to a 3-4 defense, so he'll want to get guys plenty of reps. He's 5-3 in Week 2 preseason games.


Bears at Giants (-2, 42) - 7:30 PM EST


Chicago
Head Coach: Matt Nagy (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Mitchell Trubisky, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray


It appears that Nagy will expose his starters to as little game action as possible, so it wouldn't be surprising if they're out there for just a series, if at all. Chicago went through a scripted scrimmage that got the first and second teams a lot of quality reps, which may lead to Chicago giving Bray and the roster hopefuls most of the work. He struggled last week in blowing an early lead as Chicago was outscored 17-3 in the second half. A new-look defense led by Chuck Pagano would get a good test given New York's QB battle if the bubble wrap is taken off the regulars. The Bears played the Hall of Fame game last year, so this is Nagy's first conventional preseason. Last week's loss to the Panthers at home marked the first time Nagy failed to play a game decided by more than a touchdown.


N.Y. Giants
Head Coach: Pat Shumur (6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Daniel Jones (R), Alex Tanney, Kyle Lauletta
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jordan Raanan


The Giants got a brilliant game out of Jones to ramp up the pressure on Manning immediately. He responded with a fantastic next practice while Jones struggled, so considering the home crowd can make their opinions heard in what will be New York's final preseason home game, both quarterbacks will look to impress. Manning completed one pass for three yards while the three guys behind him each beat the Jets for touchdowns, so expect him to take his shots with a receiving corps that's trying to establish a pecking order given all the attrition the team has suffered at the position. Saquon Barkley may be held out the entire preseason, so don't expect him to participate. Shurmur is 2-1 in Week 2 of the preseason.


Dolphins at Bucs (-3, 43) - 7:30 PM EST


Miami
Head Coach: Brian Flores (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock


Kenyan Drake is sporting a walking boot on his right foot, so the Dolphins will lean on Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton to anchor the ground game. With a few receivers down, Preston Williams will have plenty of opportunities to continue his breakout preseason and could give Rosen further ammunition to try and claim the starting job over the veteran, Fitzpatrick, who will take the first snaps on Friday and can do himself a favor by not turning the ball over or being erratic. Rudock helped pick up last week's win with a couple of scoring drives, looking sharp. The Dolphins continue to unveil wrinkles as first-year coordinator Chad O'Shea looks to generate confidence, so we could see an aggressive approach again if the weather permits since showers may be in the forecast.


Tampa Bay
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (9-13 SU, 10-9-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jameis Winston, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Greg Auman


Byron Leftwich had a rough start calling plays against the Steelers in his first game as OC under Arians, who is taking a step back and delegating in his return to the sideline. Winston will probably get a series or two before giving way to his backups, who were each productive in Pittsburgh. Arians has made no secret of wanting to see WR Scotty Miller (hamstring) out there. If healthy, he can be a terrific option. Arians has only won once in five Week 2 games as a head coach. Tampa Bay has been working against the Dolphins all week, even practicing indoors when inclement weather hit. Guys should be loose on both sides. If the game comes down to a kick, rookie Matt Gay has looked incredibly sharp for a Bucs team that has needed an effective kicker for years.

 

[CNOTES]

Seahawks at Vikings
August 14, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview
Seattle at Minnesota


A pair of NFC teams coming off SU and ATS wins in Week 1 of the preseason meet in Minnesota on Sunday night, as it's a high-profile, under the lights preseason contest for the Seahawks and Vikings.


Minnesota's 34-25 win last week was arguably the more impressive of the two, as they managed to put up 35 points against the Saints in New Orleans. Strong performances by QB's Sean Mannion and Kyle Sloter were a big reason for that result, as both guys managed to throw a TD pass and were a combined 13-for-20 throwing the ball. Kirk Cousins did his thing as well in one drive going 4-for-4 for 65 yards and a TD, and he'll likely cut into a bit of the playing time for Mannion and Sloter in this one.


From Seattle's perspective, their 22-14 win at home was fueled by a strong all around effort from QB Paxton Lynch. Lynch went 11-for-15 throwing the ball for 109 yards and a TD, but it was his four rushes that totalled 38 yards and a TD that helped Seattle grab the lead in the 3rd quarter for good. Lynch is a guy that's looking to revitalize his career after his failed stint in Denver as a 1st round pick, and based off one performance, his dual-threat ability is something that Seattle covets.


Doing it at home is one thing though, as can Lynch and company get it done on the road in prime time?


NFL Odds: Minnesota (-4.5); Total set at 41.5


As is the case with NFL preseason lines every week, there is significant line movement early on in the week and this game is no different. Bettors have already shown their hand in terms of backing the Vikings and the 'under', given that this line originally opened up at Minnesota -3.5 and a total of 42.


An average of 28 points put up between them on offense last week makes the 'under' look a little puzzling to some, especially given the QB battles both teams seemingly have going on for that backup role. But without question both sides would like to tighten things up defensively – especially in Minnesota's case, and I do suspect that's what we see to a degree form both sides in this one.


Seattle and Minnesota also have a recent history of preseason games finishing with 41 or fewer points, as they've met in August each of the past three years, and last year's 21-20 Minnesota win was the highest point total of the three. It was also the only one played in Week 3 of the preseason – typically the dress rehearsal game for starters – as the previous two years they met in Week 2 as they are this season, and those games finished with 33 and 29 points respectively.


So the 'under definitely makes a lot of sense here, and typically you'd better have a few good reasons to go against line moves in general during the preseason, and outside of last week's offensive performance by both sides, there really isn't a lot to suggest otherwise this week. Given that Seattle's 2nd preseason game has cashed 'under' tickets in each of the past four years, it would be that side of the total where I believe you can only look.


However, it's actually the side that may present a slightly better betting opportunity as there is at least one strong enough reason to go against the line move that's gone Minnesota's way already.


Going back to the start of the 2011 NFL season – essentially a year before the Russell Wilson era started there – the Seahawks have not minded travelling for preseason games at all. In road games outside of the Pacific Time zone (PST), Seattle has gone 7-1 ATS overall, and 5-0 ATS when lined as an underdog. That's an ATS run that has significant weight to stand on for this game, especially when you consider that QB Geno Smith will be looking to up his performance after what he saw from Lynch a week ago.


And for as much as Minnesota would like to see improvement on defense, it may be hard to completely flip that around in just a week. Mike Zimmer's defense have also been built around getting pressure and being physical, and those are two things that can be very limited in August action. At the same time, Mannion and Sloter are two guys I wouldn't count on lighting up the stat sheet again, which makes it very tough to back Minnesota at anything over a FG in this case.


The early money may have got the best of the number on Minnesota now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some buy back come Seattle's way the closer we get to kickoff. Remember, as a stand alone, SNF game, most of the action here has yet to hit the board, and I'm looking to stay ahead of the curve.

Best Bet: Seattle ATS

 

[CNOTES]

49ers at Broncos
August 16, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 2 Preview
San Francisco at Denver


The final game for the second week of the preseason is actually Game 3 for the Denver Broncos, as they get to play at home for the first time this summer. The Broncos welcome in a San Francisco team that general market perception is quite high on this year, as they get another crack with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, hopefully for the whole campaign.


Garoppolo won't be on the field much on Monday night, but with two guys behind him in Nick Mullens and CJ Beathard – both who started in his absence a year ago – San Fran has plenty of people thinking highly of them in the preseason as well.


Can that trio of QB's go out on the road under the bright prime time lights and stretch their preseason record to 2-0 SU and ATS?

NFL Odds: Denver (-2.5); Total set at 41.5


Denver's QB rotation shouldn't be slept on either


This will be the 16th time Denver finds itself on Monday Night Football in August, and a 6-9 SU record in the previous 15 occurrences isn't great by any means. But the last time they were in this role was back in the 2007 preseason, and oddly enough it was against this 49ers franchise out in San Francisco. That was a 17-13 win for the Broncos, who would love to duplicate that result this week.


Given that it is the third preseason game for Denver, chances are we see the starters get a bit more playing time this week then we will for other teams, and that can't hurt someone like QB Joe Flacco who is still establishing a rapport with his new teammates. Flacco's yet to see really more than one drive in game action this summer, and as long as you can avoid injury, the more live-game reps you get the better in his scenario being with a new team.


At the same time, Denver's reserves at QB may not have the starting NFL experience that San Fran's backups do, but they are battling it out for that #2 role as well. Rookie Drew Lock was given the bulk of the work last week in Seattle, and he performed well to the tune of 180 passing yards (1 TD, 1 INT) on 17-for-28 passing. Broncos brass are hoping that he ends up being the QB of the future in Denver and giving him as many snaps as they can now can only help his development as well.


Three-Headed QB's in San Francisco


Garoppolo will be seeing his first action in this game, but the bulk of the work is still going to go to Mullens and Beathard, as both guys look to build upon their flashes of great play from a year ago. It's because those two started regular season games a year ago that they are essentially “more known” to the casual market, and generally speaking bettors prefer to back/fade what they 'know' as opposed to doing so with more unknowns.


Which is interesting in the sense that the point spread for this game hasn't changed in number, just in vig, as action all week is seemingly coming in on both sides. The three-headed beast that is the 49ers rotation will likely get some more love the closer we get to kick-off because of their 'known' status, but this Denver defense is going to be the strength of their team once again in 2019, and it's the 3rd game for them as well. Seeing Broncos defenders fly around to the ball and make a concerted effort that they don't routinely get beat is another thing to consider here.


Total move correct?


While there hasn't been much movement on the side, the total has already been bet down a point from it's opener of 42.5, and that's arguably the right move. If Denver's starters come to play on defense, the early work for Mullens/Beathard will be much tougher than what they faced against Dallas a week ago, and each guy threw an INT in their time on the field there. Both had solid completion rates (11-for-17 for Mullens and 13-for-17 for Beathard), but they are still developing consistency in their respective games and didn't exactly put up many points off all those pass completions.


The 'under' is probably the correct move here though, although I wouldn't rule out the number climbing back up higher as we approach Monday. It's these QB rotations that tend to attract a lot of belief in points being scored. But look for Denver's defense to step up and be tough to move the ball on early, while the 49ers defense does its best to match them in that regard.

Final Thoughts


As much as I do lean on the 'under' being the correct side on the total, I can't help but see this as a much more advantageous spot to back the Broncos. Over the past five years, teams involved in playing the Hall-of-Fame game have come away with a 6-2 SU record in Week 2 of the preseason (their third game). There was no Hall-of-Fame game in 2016 which is why the numbers may appear off, but the built-in advantage of treating this as more of the third game/dress rehearsal has proven highly beneficial in terms of picking the outright winner in these games.


With the Broncos looking to put on a show for their own fans the first time this year, backing them on the ML is where my money is going on MNF this week.


Best Bet: Denver ML

 

[CNOTES]

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt


Week of August 19th


After backing the NFL preseason trends and scenarios to a strong record in Week 1, we were able to get last week's situations to follow suit. Houston got the money in a game that was theirs nearly the entire way, all that love and support for KC in the market was squashed late in their loss to the Steelers, and for those that jumped on the Cowboys late in the week when the closed at -4 and -4.5, there could have technically been another loss in there for the Cowboys as well. But news on the Rams resting basically everyone was out early in the week that nearly all the Dallas numbers got their in the end.


With Week 3 of the preseason being the last week we really see the starters even consider playing, we are looking to end the preseason on a high note as Week 4 is just a debacle of a week to try and stay atop on who's playing and just how far the depth charts are getting extended. So while news continues to pour in over the week about the gameplans in terms of starters minutes for each team, it's back to the a couple of specific scenarios that have been beneficial to back or fade like we've discussed the past two weeks.


And while winless teams will get plenty of attention this week in terms of ATS backing – they always do in Week 3 of the preseason – it's these groups of teams that deserve more of a keen eye for Week 3.


Who's Hot


2018 NFC Playoff teams tend to take 'dress rehearsal' week seriously


New Orleans (9-3 ATS run)
Philadelphia (8-1 ATS run)
Seattle (7-1 ATS run)
Chicago (2-0 ATS run)
LA Rams (1-3 ATS run)
Dallas (0-5 ATS run)


The blanket statement above obviously doesn't cover all six of the organizations that made it to January football a year ago, but outside of backing the drama-filled Cowboys this week, the other five organizations have decent enough history to warrant significant consideration for their third game of the preseason.


As of the opening numbers currently out there, the Rams don't have one yet given how close to the vest they've dealt with their starters these past few weeks, the other contests have spreads shaping out like this:


Philly is catching +4 at home against a Ravens team who has quickly become everyone's favorite preseason darling , Dallas is laying -1.5 at home in an in-state battle with Houston, Chicago's catching three on the road in Indy against a Colts team with serious QB questions to address now, the Saints are laying a point on the road against a Jets team that's already come around on sitting starters the rest of this August, and the Seahawks are catching points on the road against a winless Chargers team.


If you were to assume that starters get close to an entire half to suit up and play this week, those are some pretty nice looking spots and situations for all six of last year's NFC playoffs representatives. Now, we all know that the starters for some of these teams will still barely see the field this week, so keep that in mind as you comb through press conferences and interviews trying to discover info about playing time, but know that recent history does favor that majority of this group to cash tickets this weekend.


Of the six games overall, the two that stand out to me at the moment would be the Eagles catching a FG at home, as well as the Saints out in New York. I say that because, Philly may not let Carson Wentz hit the field and are a little thin at QB in the preseason because of it, but this blind love for backing Harbaugh and the Ravens in preseason has reached a sell point in today's betting market in my opinion. With the Eagles likely sticking with a similar QB rotation to what we saw last week (Thorson gets the bulk of the game), this line on the Ravens is only likely to increase, an then it becomes all about picking off the top in terms of getting Philadelphia at the best number.


Backing the Saints against the Jets is another spot I'm looking deeper into, because....




Who's Not


AFC East teams in third preseason game
Buffalo (1-6 ATS last seven)
New England (3-8 ATS last 11)
New York Jets (1-2 ATS last three)
Miami (1-7 ATS last eight)


New Orleans is visiting the Jets, and they do have the 'best' record of their AFC East rivals during dress rehearsal week the past few years, but HC Adam Gase has already come out and blamed himself for losing LB Avery Williamson to a torn ACL this year on his decision to leave him out longer then planned for in last week's game, and New York is probably going to go into a shell these final two weeks to make sure everyone else stays healthy.


Even with the Saints cautious approach with some of their starters, you combine the recent history of both franchises during this week of preseason action with the likely scenario of the Jets going extra cautious, I'd get on New Orleans sooner rather then later this week.


It's those other AFC East teams that I'm interested in fading as well, as New England is about a four-point home favorite vs Carolina, the Dolphins are -2.5 at home against Jacksonville, and Buffalo's catching about a point on the road in Detroit.


Of the three, Miami may be the team that causes most hesitation as they've still got a legit #1 QB battle going on there between Rosen and Fitzpatrick. Neither guy was exceptionally great last week, and although chances are they end up giving Fitzpatrick the starting job at least out of the gate, that top spot is still up for grabs, and with both guys going to get significant time (in all likelihood) in Week 3 to prove they deserve that top spot, fading the Dolphins this week does come with some concerns.


But New England has nothing left to prove after a 2-0 SU start to the preseason, as they will be out filling out depth roles the next two weeks. The same can be argued in Buffalo as well, as they've gone undefeated so far in the preseason too. Considering that Carolina and Detroit – New England and Buffalo's respective opponents – are looking for strong performances late in the preseason, they are definitely worthy of play on spots this week.


Detroit would love to get that first win of 2019 under their belt, and backing them against Buffalo this week might turn out to be one of the easier covers of Week 3's action.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Preseason Betting Stats through Week 2


Betting Favorites: 17-14 Straight Up, 14-15-2 Against The Spread
Home Favorites: 14-10 SU, 12-11-1 ATS
Road Favorites: 3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS


Over/Under: 15-16-1

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Preseason Essentials
August 21, 2019
By Tony Mejia


Note: Quarterback rotation subject to change. Lines courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


Giants at Bengals (-3, 42.5) - 7 PM EST


N.Y. Giants
Head Coach: Pat Shumur (8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Daniel Jones (R), Alex Tanney, Kyle Lauletta
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jordan Raanan


The Giants are going to let Eli Manning build on a strong performance in last Friday's rout of the Bears by playing him most of the first half with the first-team offense. There's no real controversy. If he's healthy, he'll start Week 1 ahead of rookie Daniel Jones, who will look to keep the pressure on and will likely have the benefit of many of the same receivers Manning will be working with since a thin group has to overcome Golden Tate's four-game ban and won't have him here due to a concussion. The Giants are the highest-scoring team so far this preseason, averaging 31.5 points.


Cincinnati
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Ryan Finley (R), Jeff Driskel, Jake Dolegala (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tyler Dragon


Andy Dalton is striving to get comfortable in Taylor's offense and drove the Bengals down the field against the Chiefs in his first test drive before sputtering last week in leading the A.J. Green-less offense to possessions that ended with a red-zone pick-six, a punt and a missed field goal. Rookie Ryan Finley then came in and played brilliantly, so the second half of this one will be worth watching. Cincinnati's backups outscored Washington's 17-0. Left tackle Cordy Glenn has been dealing with a concussion and likely won't play, but DT Geno Atkins and top pass rusher Carl Lawson are expected to line up for the defense.


Redskins (-2.5, 41.5) at Falcons - 7:30 PM EST


Washington
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (12-10 SU, 11-11 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins (Rookie), Jalan McClendon
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Kareem Copeland


The 'Skins haven't had Colt McCoy available this preseason and have given first-round pick Dwayne Haskins a long look, but projected starter Case Keenum will get the bulk of the work that matters in this dress rehearsal. Washington has averaged just 11.5 points thus far and has been outscored 30-3 in the second half of games. 34-year-old RB Adrian Peterson has looked sharp and hasn't shied away from preseason reps, but veteran tackle Trent Williams remains a holdout despite being regarded as a vital part of the 2019 offensive line.


Atlanta
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (5-14 SU, 4-15 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Matt Simms
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: D. Orlando Ledbetter


The Falcons carry an 11-game preseason losing streak into this game, last winning on Sept. 1, 2016. With Matt Ryan leading an offense that will also include Devonta Freeman, who looks explosive coming off season-ending groin surgery, this is a great opportunity to end that skid since the 'ones' are expected to play into the second half. Atlanta has been outscored 44-11 in the second half, so they could get a boost from the fact most of their projected final roster will see the bulk of the work. If it's close late, Danny Etling might end up making the difference. He was working as a WR/QB for the Patriots before being cut and is looking to impress enough to earn a practice squad nod.


Panthers at Patriots (-3.5, 42) - 7:30 PM EST


Carolina
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (19-15 SU, 18-15-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Will Grier (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Person


Cam Newton will make his debut after offseason shoulder surgery. He's been airing out in practices and will likely put a few deep balls on tape just to show that he can after being deactivated late last season after visibly struggling to push the ball down the field. Ron Rivera wants to see him play three or four series before giving way to backups Kyle Allen and rookie Will Grier, locked in a battle to be the primary backup. Linebacker Luke Kuechly, back Christian McCaffrey and tight end Greg Olson will all debut, so it will be interesting to see whether rust is a factor against a Pats' defense you figure will be disciplined. Rivera is 4-4 in Preseason Week 3.


New England
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (54-44 SU, 48-43-7 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Danny Etling, Jarrett Stidham (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jim McBride


Receiver Josh Gordon has been reinstated but is still on the non-football injury list alongside Cam Meredith. Veteran Demariyus Thomas is still on the PUP list, while Julian Edelman has returned to practice after breaking his thumb but probably won't play against the Panthers. Tom Brady has had no problem making the backups shine in practices and will probably get a chance to show off his chemistry with talented rookie N'Keal Harry. Bill Belichick can always wake up and decide he doesn't want to expose his 42-year-old QB needlessly, but Brady has said he wants to play. Belichick is just 9-9 in Week 3 of the preseason.


Ravens (-5, 36) at Eagles - 7:30 PM EST


Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (35-12 SU, 32-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Lamar Jackson, Trace McSorley (R), Joe Callahan
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley


Lamar Jackson has seen extensive preseason action and has worked to stay in the pocket so far, looking to improve his accuracy and avoiding taking unnecessary hits before the lights come on. He went 5-for-7 with four TD passes in red-zone against Philly in Tuesday's joint practice, improving after a rough Monday. The Ravens have had to shuffle their offensive line significantly due to injuries, so it remains to be seen whether they'll be able to hold up in the second half. McSorley and Callahan, a former Packer, will likely split the time available behind Jackson. Robert Griffin III is out for the entire preseason with a hairline fracture in his thumb. The Ravens have won 15 consectuive preseason games, last losing on Sept. 3, 2015. They have scored in every quarter this preseason an have won all first and second-half bets. Harbaugh has gone 8-3 in Week 3 and has dropped just one preseason home game since mid-August of '13.


Phildadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS in season)
Quarterback Rotation: Josh McCown, Clayton Thorson (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane


The Eagles looked sharp last week but certainly capitalized on the Jaguars' decision to sit Nick Foles, riding the inexperienced Gardner Minshew instead. Their defense will get a much tougher test against the speedy Jackson, who will offer a much different look than anyone Jim Schwartz's defense will see early in the regular season. Pederson has kept Carson Wentz and most of the big names safely on the sidelines and has lost backups Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler to injuries, so it's unlikely that he'll deviate from exposing his regulars. Veteran tackle Jason Peters wants to play the first half. The 40-year-old McCown signed last week to be the primary backup and may see his first action, but Thorson should again get the bulk of the snaps. Pederson has won two of his three Week 3 games in the preseason.




Packers (-3, 39) vs. Raiders - 8 PM EST


Green Bay
Head Coach: Matt LeFleur (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle, Manny Wilkins (R)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Tom Silverstein


Rodgers will be a game-time decision but may not play given concerns over the field turf since this game will be played at Winnipeg's Investors Group Field, a CFL stadium. It's hard to see LeFleur taking a risk with Rodgers, who has yet to see the field this preseason but has looked sharp in the more controlled environment of practice. He's been dealing with a back issue too, so be prepared for a long look at Kizer. Aaron Jones should return to the running backs rotation and Jammal Williams is back after nursing an injury, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Pack work on the run game up in Canada.


Oakland
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (35-17 SU, 20-12-3 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Derek Carr, Mike Glennon, Nathan Peterman
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Paul Gutierrez


The Raiders who have taken the field for these preseason games have mostly impressed, but Antonio Brown's helmet headache has overshadowed that success. Gruden has refused to call it a distraction, standing by him and his team's body of work thus far as proof that everyone is getting their work done. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther hasn't been shy about putting opposing quarterbacks in compromising positions by blitzing and game-planning more than you typically see in exhibition play, which may be another reason to avoid playing Rodgers. Gruden is 4-4 in Week 3 preseason games.




Jaguars at Dolphins (-3, 37) - 8 PM EST

Jacksonville
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (8-11 SU, 7-10-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Tanner Lee, Alex McGough
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: John Reid


After sitting out 31 players in the preseason opener and 27 last week, Marrone will allow his projected regulars to take the field in South Florida. Foles will be out there for the first time and looks to lead Jacksonville to its first first-quarter points. Minshew, who has seen the bulk of the work, will again be relied upon most, likely taking over sometime in the second quarter. The defense is expected to be on a pitch count, with coordinator Todd Wash more concerned seeing his personnel accomplish things he'll want to see from them come regular-season than game-planning for the Dolphins specifically. Marrone has won only one of his four Week 3 preseason games and has seen 12 of his 19 games go 'under.' McGough, who will likely play the final quarter, played in Miami at FIU.


Miami
Head Coach: Brian Flores (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Josh Rosen, Jake Rudock
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Joe Schad


Fitzpatrick continues to lead Rosen and is expected to take the first regular-season snaps for Miami, but the job hasn't been won just yet. That makes this contest essential to both hopefuls Kenyan Drake is dealing with an injured right foot that may affect his status for Week 1, so the Dolphins will lean on Kalen Ballage and Mark Walton to anchor the ground game. Walton is dealing with a legal matter that may lead to an early suspension, so Ballage could be in line for heavy work early. Early standout Preston Williams will be looking to rebound after a rough night against the Bucs, so expect to see the ball in the air so long as the weather permits. Thunderstorms are always a possibility in the early evening, so check the forecast.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet
August 21, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Preview
Friday's Action


It's a two-game betting board in the NFL on Friday night, as a couple of AFC teams with more positive expectations on them this year then either have had in recent memory, head out on the road to square off with a couple of NFC bottom feeders from a season ago.


The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are both road favorites (a rarity to say) for their preseason games against Tampa Bay and Detroit respectively. The Browns and Bills have yet to lose in the preseason and results like that only fan the flames for both fanbases who expect their respective teams to be playoff bound come January.


However, the more immediate question becomes whether or not both will remain undefeated after this week. The Lions are winless so far this August and would love to give their home crowd a win to celebrate, while Tampa Bay's been in two different preseason games decided by two points already this summer and are catching more then that as a home dog vs the Browns.


So here's a look at both of them, as this preseason is finally starting to wind down:


Cleveland (-3) vs Tampa Bay (+3); Total set at 42.5


The hype train in Cleveland has grown so big that the city needs multiple bilevel cars strung together to contain it. The Browns are going to win the division, the AFC, the Super Bowl, are plenty of bold claims that have gotten out of hand, and with QB Baker Mayfield seemingly in the news cycle every 10 days for someone being offended/upset at something new he's said, the Cleveland Browns never seem to leave the news cycle for long these days.


If this kind of stuff continues on through September and October, it's going to be harder and harder to not go contrarian and look to fade Cleveland in different spots that come up, and it's that mentality that those who are sick of all this talk about the 2019 Cleveland Browns being the best team in all of the land are starting to lean towards for the rest of this preseason as well. Yet, the market was quick to back Cleveland this week, pushing their line up from an opening number of -1, and that's in part why I'd hold off on fading the Browns and their potentially inflated lines.


That move is significant no doubt, but even with the Buccaneers playing tight preseason games so far where a spread move like this could end up mattering, it's still the Browns that I've got to side with. I say that because not only does a line move like this game has had deserve respect, but Cleveland has spent the better part of the last six months doing everything to try and change the franchise's identity and become sort of a “paper bully” that everyone across the league should fear because of the player acquisitions they've done in that time. And what do “paper bullies” like to do? Pick on the smallest/weakest around them to further their image of power, or in football terms; win the games that don't matter.


Cleveland has made a point about these preseason results mattering to them, as they've not been shy about going out their early, trying to grab a lead, and then take the game from there. The more wins this team can pile up – whether they count or not – only helps them build that ego up and inflate those cars on the Browns hype train even more. That's a scenario that we can all profit from down the line in September and October when hope and hype converge to inflate this team well past the safe rate, but we've still got to get their first. And for the Browns, that means continuing to win these games.


Two tight games against Miami and Pittsburgh so far in the preseason have to have them content with what they've seen from the bulk of their starters so far this year, and they probably aren't looking to start another year without Jameis Winston under center for Week 1.


The line move on Cleveland was definitely warranted, and one that should likely only be sided with.


Best Bet: Cleveland -3


Buffalo (-1.5) vs Detroit; Total set at 42


So I've got the Browns remaining undefeated in the preseason this week, but I can't same the same thing about the Bills. Buffalo has already gone out and beat the Colts and Panthers – each by 8 or more points – through two weeks of play, but I think that's where the winning stops for them this August. Like the Browns this week, Buffalo has gotten enough support to flip the line to make them the favorite, and while it's a move worthy of respect for sure, it's not one that I can say I agree with.


Buffalo may be a team that's got realistic playoff expectations as well in 2019, but they aren't in need of being the loudest barker on the block in the sense that Cleveland is trying to grab that role. Bills fans also got to taste playoff atmosphere a just a couple of years ago, so there isn't that same sort of 'look at me, I'm the best' persona that Cleveland's emitted this summer as well. So compared to the first game on the card on Friday, Buffalo's a lot more comparable to Tampa Bay than the also-undefeated Browns in the sense that they've got nothing much left to prove this August other then to stay healthy and continue to prepare for Week 1.


On the flip side, Detroit's Matt Patricia has shown that preseason means very little to him, but for a Lions team that's looking for a much better year as well, they could see some results on the football field sooner rather then later.


Detroit got blown out by the Patriots in Week 1, and were on the wrong side of a shootout with Houston last week. Giving up 30 points each week has to be the biggest concern overall for a defensive guy like Patricia, and if the Lions are able to shut down a Bills starting unit that sees plenty of snaps, albeit not an offense known for explosion plays, that's a good sign of growth for Detroit going forward.


Then when you consider that Buffalo is on a 0-7 ATS run in the preseason when coming off consecutive wins and 0-5 ATS on the road in the preseason when off a win by 10+ points, this line move is one that's much easier to go against.


Detroit needs a confidence building performance going into a year that will likely end up being a struggle to see .500 again, and at home in this spot I believe they get it.


Best Bet: Detroit Lions ML

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Steelers at Titans
August 22, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Preview


Sunday Night Football (NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET)


Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
The final game of Week 3 of the preseason has the rare conference battle between the Steelers and Titans, as both organizations look to get back to the playoffs as they were at the end of the 2017 season. Thankfully the Steelers and Titans aren't scheduled to meet in the regular season this year so there doesn't have to be over-developed concerns about this game being completely vanilla, but will the teams show anything dramatic at all?


Pittsburgh's had a solid 2-0 SU preseason so far and the ability to a Chiefs team to just 7 points for an entire game is a nice notch in the belt to have, even if it is only the preseason. There is not a left for the Steelers to do this preseason except maybe get Big Ben some snaps – which should be in the plan this week. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement for backing Pittsburgh this week, but a team like the Steelers has got to be anxious for the games to start to count for real.


From Tennessee's perspective, they've still got QB Ryan Tannehill pushing his case to possibly be the starter for this team going forward, although Marcus Mariota will be under center in Week 1. His leash could be quite a bit shorter though should Tannehill continue to look impressive in the preseason, and given that this Steelers defense just contained the explosive Kansas City offense, for Tannehill (or any of the Titans QB's) to put up big numbers on Pittsburgh's defense here would be a nice notch in their belt going forward.


So with a combined 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS preseason record between the two teams, who ends up getting the cash this week?


NFL Odds: Tennessee (-2.5); Total set at 40


I'm not sure which side is going to get the money, but I believe you can only look to Tennessee in that scenario simply because of the situation. Pittsburgh's got nothing left to prove out there this August, are on the road for the first time this summer, and want nothing more then for Roethlisberger to get his reps and get out of town unscathed. That's not exactly the best game plan for going out and winning/covering a number out on the road, even if the Steelers are getting points.


Compared to Tennessee being a team that's more about the entire process under Mike Vrabel's leadership, and a team that's got a potential QB battle brewing under the surface, I can only look at backing the Titans in this spot, especially on any point spread below that -3 key number. Tennessee's did get a spike in early action pushing the opener of -1.5 up to -3, but it's stayed stagnant since, and it would be that Titans side that I'd only look to.


However, it's this total that presents a better betting opportunity to me, as this total of a flat 40 points seems about a FG or so too low given that this is still Week 3 of the preseason.


Although the often overlooked part of “dress rehearsal” week in the NFL preseason is the fact that the starting defenses get significant time out on the field as well – many hear that starting offenses are playing a half or so and automatically want to think 'overs' because of it – this total is still too low in my eyes.


Yes, both defenses are out there for longer (in terms of starters), but they are in self-preservation mode now too, not looking to launch their body around and blow themselves up before the games start to count. In fact, you could make the argument that this week we can get defense that resembles somewhere in between actual defense and Pro-Bowl type defense from starting units because they don't want to get hurt either. Starters don't need to fly around the field and make impressions with big hits in August, and even against vanilla-flavored gameplans, starting units can look bad. And for units that have very few starting position battles going on, there really isn't a whole lot of incentive to look “good” this week if it's going to potentially cost you a start or two in September.


At the same time, the Steelers/Chiefs and Titans/Patriots preseason games a week ago were two of the most heavily bet 'overs' from a market perspective we had all week. Only the Titans/Patriots game came close to cashing an 'over' ticket, and because of that there is always going to be some hesitation in the market going back to that well. Betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com already show significant percentages of 75%+ on the 'unders' in this game and the Patriots game this week, as it appears some don't want to get burned again backing an 'over' in the preseason.


Yet, when the majority of the market is going one way and the number doesn't move, it's never a bad idea to start to search for supporting reasons to submit a play on the other side. For this game specifically, we've got it being in prime time, under the bright lights of SNF in a scheduling spot where an entertaining game would be welcomed.


Secondly, the starting units on both sides are going to want to be responsible for putting points up on the board when they can, and should be able to do so. Remember, there is so much talk about offenses being vanilla this time of year, but starting defenses are in the same boat, and with this game being their longest stint on the field, soft serve defense may be on the menu as well. Get the starters to give us something like a 14-10 game at half and we are well on our way to an 'over' cashing. Both teams have scored at least 17 points in both preseason tilts so far, and from there it's just one more TD needed to cash an 'over' ticket as well.


Finally, even with last week's home game against the Patriots going 'under', Tennessee is still on a 6-3 O/U run at home in the preseason the past couple of years, and have averaged 42.4 points per game in that span. Pittsburgh went 2-0 O/U on the road in the preseason last year as they really don't mind testing their mettle in back-and-forth affairs in hostile territory this time of year, and have a 6-3 O/U run going themselves during this week of the preseason with 42.7 points per game averaged in those contests as well.


With the SNF crew setting the stage for this game and the upcoming season, this Pittsburgh/Tennessee game should play up to the level of prime time football and put up plenty of points on the board relative to this total. Give me the high side of the total.


Best Bet: Over 40

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet
August 21, 2019
By Matt Blunt


NFL Preseason Week 3 Betting Preview
Friday's Action


It's a two-game betting board in the NFL on Friday night, as a couple of AFC teams with more positive expectations on them this year then either have had in recent memory, head out on the road to square off with a couple of NFC bottom feeders from a season ago.


The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills are both road favorites (a rarity to say) for their preseason games against Tampa Bay and Detroit respectively. The Browns and Bills have yet to lose in the preseason and results like that only fan the flames for both fanbases who expect their respective teams to be playoff bound come January.


However, the more immediate question becomes whether or not both will remain undefeated after this week. The Lions are winless so far this August and would love to give their home crowd a win to celebrate, while Tampa Bay's been in two different preseason games decided by two points already this summer and are catching more then that as a home dog vs the Browns.


So here's a look at both of them, as this preseason is finally starting to wind down:


Cleveland (-3) vs Tampa Bay (+3); Total set at 42.5


The hype train in Cleveland has grown so big that the city needs multiple bilevel cars strung together to contain it. The Browns are going to win the division, the AFC, the Super Bowl, are plenty of bold claims that have gotten out of hand, and with QB Baker Mayfield seemingly in the news cycle every 10 days for someone being offended/upset at something new he's said, the Cleveland Browns never seem to leave the news cycle for long these days.


If this kind of stuff continues on through September and October, it's going to be harder and harder to not go contrarian and look to fade Cleveland in different spots that come up, and it's that mentality that those who are sick of all this talk about the 2019 Cleveland Browns being the best team in all of the land are starting to lean towards for the rest of this preseason as well. Yet, the market was quick to back Cleveland this week, pushing their line up from an opening number of -1, and that's in part why I'd hold off on fading the Browns and their potentially inflated lines.


That move is significant no doubt, but even with the Buccaneers playing tight preseason games so far where a spread move like this could end up mattering, it's still the Browns that I've got to side with. I say that because not only does a line move like this game has had deserve respect, but Cleveland has spent the better part of the last six months doing everything to try and change the franchise's identity and become sort of a “paper bully” that everyone across the league should fear because of the player acquisitions they've done in that time. And what do “paper bullies” like to do? Pick on the smallest/weakest around them to further their image of power, or in football terms; win the games that don't matter.


Cleveland has made a point about these preseason results mattering to them, as they've not been shy about going out their early, trying to grab a lead, and then take the game from there. The more wins this team can pile up – whether they count or not – only helps them build that ego up and inflate those cars on the Browns hype train even more. That's a scenario that we can all profit from down the line in September and October when hope and hype converge to inflate this team well past the safe rate, but we've still got to get their first. And for the Browns, that means continuing to win these games.


Two tight games against Miami and Pittsburgh so far in the preseason have to have them content with what they've seen from the bulk of their starters so far this year, and they probably aren't looking to start another year without Jameis Winston under center for Week 1.


The line move on Cleveland was definitely warranted, and one that should likely only be sided with.


Best Bet: Cleveland -3


Buffalo (-1.5) vs Detroit; Total set at 42


So I've got the Browns remaining undefeated in the preseason this week, but I can't same the same thing about the Bills. Buffalo has already gone out and beat the Colts and Panthers – each by 8 or more points – through two weeks of play, but I think that's where the winning stops for them this August. Like the Browns this week, Buffalo has gotten enough support to flip the line to make them the favorite, and while it's a move worthy of respect for sure, it's not one that I can say I agree with.


Buffalo may be a team that's got realistic playoff expectations as well in 2019, but they aren't in need of being the loudest barker on the block in the sense that Cleveland is trying to grab that role. Bills fans also got to taste playoff atmosphere a just a couple of years ago, so there isn't that same sort of 'look at me, I'm the best' persona that Cleveland's emitted this summer as well. So compared to the first game on the card on Friday, Buffalo's a lot more comparable to Tampa Bay than the also-undefeated Browns in the sense that they've got nothing much left to prove this August other then to stay healthy and continue to prepare for Week 1.


On the flip side, Detroit's Matt Patricia has shown that preseason means very little to him, but for a Lions team that's looking for a much better year as well, they could see some results on the football field sooner rather then later.


Detroit got blown out by the Patriots in Week 1, and were on the wrong side of a shootout with Houston last week. Giving up 30 points each week has to be the biggest concern overall for a defensive guy like Patricia, and if the Lions are able to shut down a Bills starting unit that sees plenty of snaps, albeit not an offense known for explosion plays, that's a good sign of growth for Detroit going forward.


Then when you consider that Buffalo is on a 0-7 ATS run in the preseason when coming off consecutive wins and 0-5 ATS on the road in the preseason when off a win by 10+ points, this line move is one that's much easier to go against.


Detroit needs a confidence building performance going into a year that will likely end up being a struggle to see .500 again, and at home in this spot I believe they get it.


Best Bet: Detroit Lions ML