Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 2


Friday’s games
Wake Forest gave up 596 yards but beat Utah State 38-35 at home LW; Aggies threw for 416 yards, WF 401. Rice lost its opener 14-7 at Army; total yardage was 284-243- Owls threw for only 62 yards. Wake plays local rival North Carolina Thursday; since 2010, Wake is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. Last three years, Owls are 5-4 as home underdogs. Deacons (-27) beat Rice 56-24 in last meeting. Wake has more experienced OL (82 returning starts to 32). Last four years, ACC teams are 11-5 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.


Trap game for Boise State after their emotional comeback win at Florida State. Broncos have solid young QB in freshman Bachmeier; he threw for 407 yards at FSU last week. Under Harsin, Boise is 17-21 ATS as a home favorite- they’re 14-10 ATS in last 24 non-league games. Marshall whacked a I-AA team in their opener; hard to tell much about that. Since ’12, Marshall is 11-4-1 as a road underdog. Both teams have 100+ returning stats on their OL; Conference USA teams covered seven of last nine games as an underdog vs Mountain West opponents.


Saturday’s top 13 games
Syracuse blanked I-A newcomer Liberty 24-0 LW, holding Flames to 234 yards; over last decade, Orange are 8-3 ATS as road favorites. Syracuse has new QB and has only 48 returning starts on its OL. Maryland beat a terrible I-AA team LW; can’t tell anything about that. Terps won last series game 34-20 (+2.5) in Carrier Dome five years ago. Last five years, Maryland is 5-9 ATS as a home underdog. Since 2014, ACC teams are 13-18-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Missouri got beat last week as an 18-point favorite at Wyoming, giving up 297 yards rushing; they were -3 (0-3) in turnovers. West Virginia snuck by I-AA JMU 20-13; they were outgained 328-294 by the Dukes, but were +3 in turnovers. Under Odom, Tigers are 10-7 ATS as home favorites. West Virginia covered four of last five games as a road underdog; since 2012, they’re 10-15 as a road underdog. WVU won last series game 26-11 (-10) three years ago. Since 2014, Big X teams are 8-6-1 ATS when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Cincinnati beat UCLA 24-14 in its opener, holding Bruins to 156 TY with four takeaways (+2). Under Fickell, Bearcats are 5-3 as road underdogs; they’re 5-4 ATS in last nine non-league games. Ohio State ld FAU 28-0 after 8:10 of play in, jogged to 45-28 win in its opener; since ’15, OSU is 11-16 as home favorites;- they’re 17-11 in last 28 non-league games. Buckeyes won last series meeting 50-28 (-17) in 2014; both sides changed coaches since then. Last four years, AAC teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Nebraska won its opener 35-21, scoring two defensive TD’s and also scored on a punt return. Cornhuskers covered 11 of their last 15 road games; last three years, they’re 3-0 as road favorites, but covered only one of last six non-league games. Colorado won its opener 52-31 but gave up 500+ yards. Last three years, Buffs are 9-4 as home underdogs; they’re 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 games as an underdog. Since 2013, Colorado is 12-7-1 ATS outside Pac-12. This was a big rivalry when teams were in Big 8 Conference.


Clemson jogged 52-14 in its opener, piling up 632 yards; Tigers are 21-17-1 ATS in last 39 games as a home favorite- since 2013, they’re 20-13 ATS outside the ACC. Last two years, Texas A&M is 6-3-1 ATS as an underdog; they’re 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 non-SEC games. Underdogs covered four of Jimbo’s last five games with Clemson. Tigers won 28-26 (-12) at Texas A&M in teams’ last meeting, despite being outgained by 88 yards; they were +2 in TO’s that day. SEC teams covered nine of last games against ACC teams.


Mississippi State has various players suspended for first few games; they beat Louisiana 38-28 in Superdome LW, running ball for 261 yards. Bulldogs covered eight of last 11 tries as a home favorite, 8 of last 11 non-SEC tilts. Last five years, Southern Miss is 13-8 in last 21 games as road underdogs; they’re 5-3 ATS in last eight non-league games. USM jogged over a I-AA team LW. This is first series meeting in four years; State won last two, 34-16/49-0, but both teams changed coaches since then. Last four years, SEC clubs are 18-14-1 ATS vs C-USA teams.


Tennessee lost at home as a 26-point favorite LW; is that enough to get DB Thompson back from suspension? Georgia State ran ball for 213 yards, converted 10-17 on 3rd down LW; Knoxville natives are not happy. Since 2012, Vols are 13-24 ATS as home favorites; they covered only two of last nine non-league games. BYU got whacked 30-12 by rival Utah LW; Utes ran ball for 262 yards. Cougars covered nine of last 11 games as road underdogs. BYU’s schedule is weird; they played Utah last week, play USC next week; tough start to year.


Texas hammered Louisiana Tech 45-14 LW, despite giving up 413 yards, 340 thru the air. LSU pounded Georgia Southern 55-3 LW; senior QB Burrow was 23-27/278 passing. Under Orgeron, Tigers are 3-2 as road favorites; they’re 4-7 ATS in last 11 non-SEC games. Since ’15, Texas is 5-0-1 as a home underdog; they covered six of last eight games as an underdog, five of last eight games outside Big X. These teams last met in 2003. Last eight years, SEC teams are 17-15 vs spread when facing a Big X opponent.


Road team won three of last four Arkansas-Ole Miss games, with all four games decided by 4 or fewer points, with an average total of 78.5. Razorbacks won last two visits to Oxford, 53-52/38-37. Arkansas has 11 new starters on offense; they slogged past I-AA Portland State 20-13 LW. Ole Miss lost 15-10 LW at Memphis- they were outgained 364-173. Rebels were only 1-10 on 3rd down, ran ball for only 80 yards. Last three years, Arkansas is 7-2-1 ATS as a road underdog. Ole Miss is 6-7 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite. You’re reading armadillo sports.com


Miami won its last two games with North Carolina, 47-10/24-19; UNC turned ball over six times in LY’s ugly loss. Hurricanes (+7) lost 24-20 at Florida LW, they were +3 in turnovers (4-1) but had 14 penalties for 118 yards. UNC came back to beat South Carolina 24-20 LW, after being down 20-9 after 3rd quarter— they outgained the Gamecocks 483-270. Over last nine years, Miami is 21-12 ATS as a single digit favorite in ACC games; since 2012, Miami is 14-9 ATS as road favorites. Tar Heels are 4-7 in last 11 tries as a home dog. Both teams have new head coaches this year.


Stanford won three of last four games with USC; home side won last three series games. USC lost its QB for season LW; his replacement was in high school LY, was 6-8/57 passing in relief vs Fresno LW- this will be his first college start. Trojans held off an inexperienced Fresno team 31-23, but gave up 462 yards. Stanford held Northwestern off 17-7 LW, scoring a defensive TD with 0:20 left- their offense struggled. Cardinal’s QB is a ?mark after he got a concussion LW. Last four years, Stanford is 13-9 ATS on true road games. USC covered only four of last 18 games as a home favorite.


California-Washington split their last four meetings; Cal upset the Huskies 12-10 (+11) LY. Cal had tough time with I-AA Cal Poly LW, finally winning 27-13; game was 13-13 with 4:00 left in 3rd quarter. Golden Bears ran ball for 233 yards but lost three fumbles. Huskies crushed a I-AA opponent LW; their OL has 107 returning starts, junior QB has 14 starts. Under Wilcox, Golden Bears are 6-3 ATS as road dogs- they covered 11 of last 16 tries overall as an underdog. Last three years, Washington is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite.


Fresno State lost 21-14 at Minnesota LY, Gophers scoring winning TD with 3:28 left; Fresno had ball on Minnesota 4-yard with 1:18 left, but a trick play blew up and Gophers escaped. Bulldogs lost 31-23 at USC LW, but their inexperienced offense gained 462 yards; Fresno covered their last six tries as a home underdog- they covered eight of last 10 non-conference tilts. Minnesota was outgained 367-308 in 28-21 win over I-AA South Dakota State LW; Gophers are 6-1 ATS in last seven games out of conference; since 2014, they’re 2-3 as road favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

Clemson's opening odds tick up early for College Football Week 2 clash vs Texas A&M
Patrick Everson


Clemson's opening odds tick up early for College Football Week 2 clash vs Texas A&M
Clemson running back Travis Etienne had 205 yards and three TDs in a Week 1 blowout of Georgia Tech.


The No. 1 Tigers opened as 18-point favorites at home in Week 2 vs. No. 11 Texas A&M.


Week 1 isn’t quite a wrap yet in college football, but it’s time to set our sights on a Week 2 with several noteworthy matchups. We check in on the opening odds and early action for four games, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for New Jersey-based online sportsbook PointsBet USA.


No. 11 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-18)


Perennial College Football Playoff contender Clemson got down to business quickly with an easy Week 1 victory. The Tigers (1-0 SU and ATS) put up two touchdowns in each of the first three quarters and hammered Georgia Tech 52-14, narrowly cashing as 37-point home favorites Thursday.


Texas A&M had no issues in its opener, either, though against a much less notable opponent. The Aggies (1-0 SU and ATS) dispatched Texas State 41-7, giving up a final-minute touchdown to barely cover as 33.5-point faves.


These two teams met last September, with host A&M rallying from a 21-6 deficit to nearly force overtime. The Aggies scored a last-minute TD to pull within 28-26, but the 2-point attempt failed and Clemson escaped as 12-point chalk.


“This season, things clearly are expected to be different in Death Valley,” Chaprales said, alluding to an 18-point opening line. “This is Clemson’s toughest two-game stretch, so one can reasonably expect this line to come down a bit over the course of the week, but not too far. The line waffled early from 18 to 17.5 and back to 18, so we will see how it progresses.”


By later Monday morning, the number actually progressed upward to Clemson -18.5.


No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 10 Texas Longhorns (+4.5)


Expectations are high at Texas for the 2019-20 season, and this SEC/Big 12 showdown could demonstrate whether that’s justified. The Longhorns (1-0 SU and ATS) opened with an easy 45-14 victory over Louisiana Tech laying 19 points at home Saturday.


Likewise, LSU had little trouble in Week 1 as it hopes to mount a charge against Alabama this year in the Southeastern Conference. On Saturday, the Tigers (1-0 SU and ATS) dispatched Georgia Southern 55-3 giving 27 points at home.


“The Longhorns are the underdogs as ‘GameDay’ heads down to Austin in this marquee matchup,” Chaprales said. “Neither team was really tested to open the season, but now, we can truly find out if Texas is back. There hasn’t been much action drawn on this one yet, but with such a big matchup on our hands, there should be an influx coming, especially with two incredibly public teams.”


No. 23 Stanford Cardinal at Southern California Trojans (no line)


Both these programs saw their starting quarterbacks get hurt in Week 1, but Southern Cal suffered the much more significant injury. JT Daniels tore his right ACL and meniscus in the second quarter against Fresno State on Saturday, and he will miss the rest of the year. The Trojans (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) went on to win 31-23 as 14.5-point home favorites, but will now field a freshman QB in Kedon Slovis.


Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello exited Saturday’s home game with Northwestern after a hit to the head late in the first half, and his status is still undetermined. The Cardinal pulled off an extremely unlikely cover in that game, recovering a fumble for a touchdown with 20 seconds left in a 17-7 victory giving 6.5 points.


“The real, and most unfortunate, storyline here is Daniels’ devastating torn ACL that has knocked him out for the season,” Chaprales said. “What started out as a promising beginning has now turned into a potential nightmare for Clay Helton and the Trojans. But on the other side, Costello went down due to a very questionable hit up high. With both starting QBs injured, we do not have a line on this yet.


“Right now, we could see that number being around USC -3 to -4.5, but Costello’s status could greatly alter that. There’s still too much uncertainty.”


Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (-16.5)


Ohio State got out of the gate in a huge hurry under new coach Ryan Day, who took over for the retired Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) scored 28 first-quarter points against Florida Atlantic and coasted to a 45-21 victory laying 27 points at home.


Cincinnati could be a more formidable opponent than the opening line suggests, as the program is coming off one of its best seasons (11-2 SU last year). The Bearcats kept it rolling in the 2019-20 opener, topping UCLA 24-14 as 2.5-point home favorites, the second straight year they’ve beaten the Bruins.


“Respect has to be given to Cincinnati, as Luke Fickell has the Bearcats well ahead of schedule,” Chaprales said of the coach entering his third season. “This line could very well shift toward Cincy a small amount, as one can reasonably expect QB Justin Fields and the Buckeyes to be tested this week. This could be especially true if you put any stock into the fact that Fickell spent practically his whole career with the Buckeyes up until getting this job.


“If last week was any indication, people may have their eyes on this Bearcats squad.”


That said, the initial move on this line was toward Ohio State, to -17.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 2
September 3, 2019
By ASA


Week 2 Big Ten Matchups
Army at Michigan (-22.5, Total 46.5)
Vanderbilt at Purdue (-7.5, Total 55.5)
Rutgers at Iowa (-20, Total 50)
Syracuse at Maryland (-1.5, Total 56)
Cincinnati at Ohio State (-16, Total 53)
Nebraska (-3.5, Total 64) at Colorado
Central Michigan at Wisconsin (-35, Total 51.5)
Illinois (-20.5, Total 60.5) at Connecticut
Western Michigan at Michigan State (-16, Total 46)
Buffalo at Penn State (-29.5, Total 58)
Minnesota (-3, Total 46.5) at Fresno State
Eastern Illinois at Indiana (-34, Total 62.5)


Odds Subject to Change


ILLINOIS
The Illini (-18) look to us like they’ll be an improved team this year and they began to prove that narrative on Saturday with a 42-3 win over Akron. It was their largest margin of victory since the 2016 opener when they crushed Murray State 52-3. The offense was led by Michigan transfer quaterback Brandon Peters who attempted only 23 passes (163 yards passing) but ushered his team to TD’s on each of their first 3 possessions. While Peters played well, the Illinois rushing game carried the load with 65% of their plays coming on the ground (207 total rushing yards on 46 carries). However, they were dealt a blow when Mike Esptein, one of their key tailbacks along with Reggie Corbin, was lost for the year with a knee injury.


Head coach Lovie Smith, whose background is on the defensive side of the ball, is now the defensive coordinator as well. He took over for Hardy Nickerson who resigned midseason a year ago. Smith had his defense looking very good on Saturday. After allowing nearly 42 PPG and over 500 YPG last year, the Illini held Akron to just 3 points on 198 total yards. Last year Illinois opened with a MAC opponent as well and allowed Kent to score 24 points on 453 yards so progress looks like it’s being made in Champaign. Keep in mind that Akron was just 4-8 last year and they are operating under a new head coach so the Illini enthusiasm may need to be tempered a bit. Illinois heads to Connecticut this weekend. The Huskies held on last week at home to beat Wagner 24-21.


INDIANA
The Hoosiers had a scare right out of the gate last week holding on to beat Ball State 34-24 in Indianapolis. IU was favored by 18 in the game and never came close to getting to that number. Their largest lead was just 14 and that didn’t come until there was only 13:00 left in the game. Ball State cut it to 7 with 6:30 remaining but Indiana closed it out with a late FG. Head coach Tom Allen went with freshman Michael Penix Jr. at QB as he beat out last year’s starter Peyton Ramsey who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 19 TD’s a year ago. Penix played well throwing for 326 yards along with 67 yards on the ground which led the team. Only one other Indiana QB has been able to throw for over 300 yards in his freshman starting debut and that was Antwaan Randle El back in 1998. We remember Randle El very well as we began handicapping in the late 80’s and launched ASA Inc back in 1997! Back to Penix, while he is a freshman, he did get some experience last year playing in 3 games for the Hoosiers before being redshirted but his was his first start. For Penix to lead Indiana in rushing with just 67 yards is a concern. Especially facing a Ball State defense that allowed 240 YPG on the ground a year ago. RB Stevie Scott, who had over 1,100 yards rushing last year, had just 48 yards on 19 carries. However, IU’s rushing numbers may have taken a hit due to Ball State putting put 8+ defenders in the box for much of the game forcing the freshman QB to beat them and he did just that. After allowing 424 YPG a year ago, Allen was hoping to see a much better Indiana defense vs Ball State. Instead he was upset with their effort allowing 398 total yards mentioning the “shoulder tackling” has to go. IU hosts Eastern Illinois next week before the Buckeyes come to town on September 14th.


IOWA
Our interest in this one was the drastic line movement on gameday. Iowa opened as a 21.5 point favorite vs Miami Oh back in late June and was sitting at -22 at most places on Saturday morning. By game time the number had pushed all the way to -25 or -25.5 at a majority of shops. The game ended with Iowa winning 38-14 so the line move and when people played the game was very significant. The game was in the balance with under 6:00 minutes remaining and Iowa up by just 10. They scored the final 2 TD’s of the game for the 38-14 win. The Hawkeyes never led by more than 17 points until 3:03 remaining in the game when their final TD pushed the margin to 24. Iowa dominated the stat sheet outgaining the Redhawks by 220 yards, including rolling up 213 yards rushing to just 59 for Miami. Iowa’s main concern defensively was up front where they were replacing all 4 starting defensive linemen. They held up more than well allowing just 2.5 yards per carry vs a Miami Oh team that is one of the favorites in the MAC East. After holding just a 10-7 lead at half, Iowa completely controlled the 2nd half racking up 295 yards to just 106 for the Redhawks. One major concern moving forward is starting LT Alaric Jackson, one of the best in the Big Ten, who exited with a knee injury and did not return. He will be out for several weeks at the least. Iowa opens the conference season next weekend hosting Rutgers before traveling to Iowa State the following Saturday as they try and hold onto the CyHawk Trophy.


MARYLAND
The Mike Locksley era at Maryland got off to an impressive start as the Terps (-31) crushed Howard 79-0. As you can see by the final score, not much to write here except total domination by Maryland. They were +20 first downs, put up 623 yards while holding Howard to 68, rushed for 317 yards while limiting the Bison to 1 yard on the ground. Howard only crossed midfield once and they were held inside their own 35 yard line on all but two of their offensive possessions. New QB Josh Jackson, a Virginia Tech transfer, threw 4 TD’s in the first half leading Maryland to a 56-0 halftime lead, the most points the Terps have ever scored in half. We’ll find out a lot more about this team on Saturday when they host Syracuse. The Orange shut out Liberty 24-0 last weekend.


MICHIGAN
The Wolves played host to Middle Tennessee State last Saturday and led just 24-14 late in the first half. They pulled away in the 2nd half on their way to a 40-21 win but didn’t come close to covering the 36-point spread. It was a bit of a disappointing performance vs an MTSU team that was replacing their all time leading passer and came into the game very inexperienced on the offensive line. The Wolverines unleased their new no-huddle, up tempo, spread offense for the first time under new offensive coordinator Josh Gattis who came over from Alabama in the off season. While they were very balanced with 233 yards rushing and 220 yards passing, Michigan only averaged 5.8 yards per play vs an MTSU defense that allowed 5.5 YPP last year vs a fairly pedestrian schedule. The U of M defense, which was ranked #1 nationally for much of last season, closed out last year allowing 62 points to Ohio State and 41 points to Florida in their bowl loss. They shut down the Blue Raiders rushing attack allowing only 67 yards on 28 carries. However, they struggled a bit with their pass defense as MTSU first time starter O’Hara was 22 of 32 for 217 yards and 2 TD’s. Michigan was without two key starters as OT Jon Runyan and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones both sat out with injuries. Head coach Jim Harbaugh said he hopes to have both back next Saturday when they host Army. That means just one week for the defense to prepare for Army’s option attack which is always difficult. The Cadets won at home 14-7 vs Rice last week moving their record to an impressive 22-6 their last 28 games.


MICHIGAN STATE
The Spartans looked just as we thought they would last weekend. Great on defense and not so great on offense. MSU (-23.5) topped Tulsa 28-7 giving them wins in 21-straight home openers. The defense was outstanding holding Tulsa to just 80 total yards. To say the Golden Hurricane couldn’t do anything on the ground would be an understatement. They had -73 yards on 25 carries for an average of -3 YPC. Yes, you read that correctly. Sparty was #1 in the nation against the run last season and they have a great jump on defending that title this year. After the game Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery said that MSU probably had the best defensive line he’s ever faced which is obviously high praise.


If only the offense could hold up their end of the bargain. They were held to 24 points or less in every Big Ten game last year and they were far from a well oiled unit last week. The offense scored just 2 TD’s and had only 303 total yards vs a Tulsa defense that allowed 30 PPG and 408 YPG a year ago. After averaging only 125 yards rushing last year, the Spartans tallied just 108 yards on the ground on 40 carries last week (2.7 YPC). Again, that was against a Tulsa defense that gave up 233 YPG on the ground last year. Brian Lewerke is back at QB and completed just 56% of his passes last Saturday after completing only 54% last year. This team can be very good but the offense needs to play much better. They can get by on defense alone vs the likes of Tulsa and some of the lower tier Big Ten teams. That won’t cut it against the top teams they play this year. MSU actually LOST 2 games last year in which their defense gave up less than 10 points. That simply can’t happen. Sparty hosts in state MAC foe Western Michigan next weekend.


MINNESOTA
The Gophers played host to FCS powerhouse South Dakota State last Saturday in a game that went to the wire. Minnesota (-14.5) never led by more than 13 and they were actually down 21-20 entering the 4th quarter before pulling out a 28-21 win. While it may look like a ho-hum performance by the Gophers keep in mind South Dakota State is a top 5 FCS team that was in the National Championship game last year, a loss to North Dakota State. That being said, Minnesota was not sharp. The Jackrabbits actually outgained Minnesota (367 to 308) with both accumulating 60 offensive snaps. One big concern coming out of the game was the performance of the offensive line. There was some uncertainty entering this game up front and the Gophers were only able to run for 132 yards on 42 carries (3.1 YPC). They were pushed around at times up front by their FCS opponent.


The defensive line wasn’t much better as the Jackrabbits rushed for 5.1 YPC. The Gophers need to play much better in the trenches moving forward as they face better opponents. Minny scored 28 points but two of their TD’s came as a direct result of SDSU turnovers – one interception returned for a TD and a fumble that led to a 34-yard TD drive. In the end, a win is a win, but we weren’t impressed with Minnesota’s first game. They travel to Fresno State this weekend which is a revenge game for the Bulldogs who lost 21-14 at Minnesota last year.


NEBRASKA
In our opinion Nebraska has been overhyped the entire off-season and they proved us correct last Saturday. They entered as a 35 point chalk and were lucky to win 35-21. The talk of this team being a top 10 or 15 team in Scott Frost’s 2nd year at the helm was much to premature in our minds. While their offense was very good at the end of last year and QB Adrian Martinez is a potential star in the making, their defense was terrible. They allowed 434 YPG on nearly 6.0 yards per play last season. While we expect some improvement on that side of the ball, they’d have to make an awfully big jump to reach the lofty expectations put on them by the media and their fans.


Last Saturday, it was actually their offense that looked like it was stuck in neutral. They tallied just 276 yards on 66 offensive snaps and scored only 14 points. What makes matters look worse is they were facing a South Alabama defense that allowed 39 PPG on 450 YPG a year ago. The Huskers can thank their defense for this one which has been rare as we mentioned above. They forced the Jaguars into 5 turnovers, 2 of them going for TD’s on an interception return and fumble recovery in the endzone. The other Nebraska TD came on a 76-yard punt return. The fact is, they were outgained, had fewer first downs, lost the time of possession by nearly 10:00 minutes at home, as a 5 TD favorite, vs a team that was 3-9 last year. Let’s hold off on anointing this team the best in the Big Ten West. They may get there, but they are nowhere near where they need to be right now. This weekend they head to Boulder as a road favorite to take on Colorado.


NORTHWESTERN
This one literally came down to the final play (or 2nd to last play) of the game to decide the spread. Stanford was a 6.5 point chalk and led 10-7 with 30 seconds remaining and Northwestern had the ball at their own 20 yard line. It would take a miracle for Stanford to cover and that’s just what transpired. The Cats QB Hunter Johnson was sacked, fumbled and Stanford recovered in the endzone with 20 seconds remaining in the game to pick up a cover and a 17-7 win. Johnson was the much ballyhooed former 5-star transfer from Clemson and he struggled to say the least.


The QB duo of TJ Green and Johnson were only able to complete 44% of their passes and gain just 4.3 yards per pass attempt. On the ground the Wildcats were held to less than 3 YPC. They were outgained by 155 yards in the game. Just an ugly all around offensive performance for the Cats. They lost QB Green, son of former NFL QB Trent Green, to a foot injury. He’s already had surgery and might be gone for the entire season. Injuries were the lead story for NW coming out of this game as starting LT Slater, leading rusher Bowser, and team captain DB Williams all left the game. The good thing for Northwestern is they have a bye this week before hosting UNLV on September 14th.


OHIO STATE
Those who were on OSU (-28) on Saturday were getting ready to cash their tickets early on as the Bucks jumped out to a 28-0 lead with 6:50 still remaining in the first quarter. New starting QB Justin Fields, who transferred from Georgia, looked fantastic running for a TD and throwing for 3 more all less than 10:00 minutes into the game. The Buckeyes tallied 220 of their 469 total yards in the first quarter alone. Unfortunately for Buckeye backers they took their foot off the gas early. After scoring their 28th point with 6:50 left in the first stanza, OSU went more than 2 full quarters without a point scoring their next TD with 2:37 left in the 3rd quarter. FAU had two long scoring drives of 75 & 76 yards in the 4th quarter to pick up the cover losing 45-21. Those two 4th quarter drives accounted for almost 70% of the Owls yardage for the game (228 total yards).


OSU will get a much tougher test at home next Saturday when they host in-state program Cincinnati. The Bearcats are coming off a 10-point win over UCLA, they are 13-2 their last 15 games, they are coached by former Buckeye interim head coach and defensive coordinator Luke Fickell, and we can guarantee this will be Cincy’s biggest game of the season. Should be interesting.


PENN STATE
Similar to our Maryland synapsis above, really not much to say here. PSU came into the game as a ridiculous 41 point favorite and walked away with a 79-7 win. When’s the last time a team was favored by 41 and covered the number by 31 points! As expected when taking the final score into consideration, PSU completed dominated the ground game with 331 yards rushing while holding Idaho to just 4. The Nittany Lions averaged 7.4 YPC and 8.2 yards per play overall. They scored 10 TD’s in the game in their 82 offensive snaps for an average of one TD every 8.2 plays.


Just ridiculous. If you remember, Penn State was thrown for a loop when probable starting QB Tommy Stevens, a 5th year senior, decided to transfer to Mississippi State where he is now the Bulldogs starter. After that, Penn State head coach James Franklin turned to sophomore Sean Clifford, who had 7 career pass attempts, as his starting QB. Clifford looked great on Saturday throwing for 280 yards in the first half before sitting the rest of the way. Clifford also showed he can move very well with almost 60 yards rushing. Not much to take away from this game vs a terrible Idaho team that dropped from FBS to FCS status this year. Penn State hosts Buffalo on Saturday.


PURDUE
Meltdown! That is the theme of this one.


Purdue (-11) led Nevada 31-14 with under 4:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and allowed the Wolfpack to come back for the 34-31 win. Nevada walk-on kicker Brandon Talton kicked a 56-yard FG as time expired to win. Talton was awarded a scholarship by head coach Jay Norvell after the game in a now much viewed twitter moment. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and outgained Nevada by 115 years but lost the turnover battle 5 to 0. That was the difference in the game. The final giveaway was the most damaging as Boilermaker starting QB Elijah Sindelar threw an interception with under 1:00 remaining in the game which led to the game winning FG for Nevada. Sindelar did throw for a career high 343 yards in the game. After taking a 31-14 lead on a 2-play 75 yard drive with 6:19 to go in the 3rd quarter, they gained only 55 yards on 24 plays from that point on. Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm admitted after the game they should have stayed more aggressive late in the game even though they had a 17-point lead. The running game struggled with just 96 yards and the offense was far from balanced with 29 rush attempts and 54 pass attempts. Not a great start facing a Nevada team that started a redshirt freshman at QB who had never attempted a pass in a college game.


Purdue attempts to get back on track this weekend as they host a Vanderbilt team that was smoked 30-6 at home vs Georgia. One bonus for the Boilers, they played last Friday (Vandy played on Saturday) giving them an extra day to prepare for this one.


RUTGERS
Rutgers has already matched their win total from a year ago after topping UMass 48-21 in their season opener. It didn’t look great early for the Scarlet Knights, who were favored by 17, as UMass jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter. The game played out in an odd way. The 2 teams combined to score 59 points on 619 yards in the first half which actually topped the game total of 54 before halftime. In the second half, they combined to score just 10 points on 239 total yards. After finishing 1-11 last year, Rutgers needed much better production from the QB position as last year’s starter Artur Sitkowski threw just 4 TD passes and 18 interceptions.


New starter McLane Carter, transfer from Texas Tech, definitely looked like an upgrade with 340 yards passing and 2 TD’s. Problem is, he also threw 3 picks which would never cut it for a team like Rutgers vs a solid FBS opponent. They were minus 14 in turnovers last year and that obviously has to be cleaned up or the Knights will remain at or near the bottom of the Big Ten. The Rutgers defense struggled early in the game allowing the Minutemen to score TD’s on their first 3 offensive possessions, but they locked down after that holding UMass scoreless over the final 45 minutes of the game. The Knights now kick off their Big Ten season at Iowa on Saturday.


WISCONSIN
Being in Madison, we receive very solid info and usually have a great feel for this Wisconsin team. We had been hearing that the defense, which struggled last year, was back to their form of 2015 – 2017 when they finished in the top 5 nationally in scoring defense each of those 3 seasons. They definitely looked the part last Friday as the Badgers (-10.5) shut out South Florida on the road 49-0 which was the worst loss EVER for the Bulls. The emphasis defensively during the off season was to get back to stopping the run. Last year UW allowed an uncharacteristic 155 YPG on the ground after giving up just 95, 99, & 98 the previous 3 seasons. In the win, they allowed just 26 yards on 23 carries. The USF offense didn’t cross midfield until there was 4:43 remaining in the game and tallied just 157 total yards. A dominant performance for Wisconsin’s defense vs a team that averaged 28 PPG on 438 YPG last season.


Offensively it was the Jonathan Taylor show as everyone expected. He had 183 total yards and 4 TD’s and he didn’t play the final 28:00 minutes of the game. QB Jack Coan was decent completing 19 of his 26 attempts but missed at least 2 TD’s on deep overthrows to wide open receivers. Wisconsin did not escape unscathed as starting LB Orr is questionable while starting RT Bruss, starting DE Green-May, and starting safety Nelson are all out as they host Central Michigan. After hosting the Chippewas, Wisconsin has a week off before Michigan comes to Camp Randall.

 

[CNOTES]

Injuries already taking a toll on Pac-12
September 3, 2019
By The Associated Press


It's just a week into the season and injuries are already taking a toll in the Pac-12.


USC quarterback J.T. Daniels and Stanford counterpart K.J. Costello were among the players who got knocked out of their season openers. So did Washington senior center Nick Harris.


Graduate transfer Juwan Johnson, expected to start at receiver for Oregon, didn't even suit up for Saturday's big game against Auburn. And UCLA was missing several top playmakers.


Daniels' injury will arguably have the biggest impact on his team. The 6-foot-3 sophomore tore a ligament and the meniscus in his right knee late in the first half of the Trojans' 31-23 victory over Fresno State and will miss the rest of the season.


Daniels was adjusting this season to an Air Raid-style offense under new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and had fared well in the opener before he was hurt, throwing for 215 yards and a touchdown.


Now USC (1-0) must turn to freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis. There's also the intriguing possibility that USC could lure back redshirt sophomore Jack Sears, who had announced last week his intention to enter the transfer portal after losing out to Daniels.


''One of the things that Jack and I always talked about, and I said, `Hey, there is always an open door here,''' Helton said Saturday night. ''And he told me, he said, `Coach, if you ever need me, I'm there for you.'''


Slovis' debut as starter might come against another QB getting his first start, Stanford's Davis Mills. The Trojans host the Cardinal (1-0) on Saturday in an early conference matchup at the Coliseum.


Stanford coach David Shaw said Costello is questionable for the game.


Costello got a forearm to the facemask from Northwestern's Earnest Brown late in the first half Saturday. Costello, who threw for 152 yards and a touchdown before he was hurt, did not return. Brown was called for a late hit, but not targeting.


Shaw said Tuesday he believed the officials missed the call.


Mills, a junior, replaced Costello and threw for 81 yards, but he also fumbled twice and the Cardinal did not score in the second half. With the 17-7 victory, Stanford moved up two spots to No. 23 in the AP Top 25 released Tuesday.


Shaw, who had recruited Daniels, called the season-ending injury a shame. But he said it would not have too much impact on Stanford's preparation.


''Our defensive mentality is to accentuate what we do well and we talk a lot about our scheme versus their scheme, more so than who is playing quarterback,'' Shaw said. ''The young man went in there last week and made some great throws and some nice plays, but for the most part for us we've got to go in there and play to our strengths and play our style of football.''


Junior left tackle Walker Little injured his leg on the final drive of the game. Shaw said Stanford hopes to see Little back by midseason.


OREGON'S RECEIVER WOES: It was something of a surprise when Johnson was sidelined for the Ducks' season-opening 27-21 loss to Auburn.


Coach Mario Cristobal said Monday that the unspecified injury occurred late last week in practice and Johnson is currently listed as day-to-day. The Ducks were already hurting at receiver with Brenden Schooler (right foot) and Mycah Pittman (right shoulder) both out. Promising freshman receiver JR Waters will miss the season with a foot injury.


To help alleviate the situation, the Ducks have moved redshirt freshman tight end Spencer Webb to receiver. Webb had three catches for 28 yards and a touchdown in the opener.


''He played a lot of wide receiver or I would say a lot of detached tight end formational stuff in high school,'' Cristobal said. ''So he's very natural in space. And when the opportunity arose with all of the injuries that transpired we felt, `You know what, let's give this thing a look.'''


The Ducks also moved sophomore cornerback Daewood Davis to receiver. That's where Davis played his first year with the Ducks.


Oregon dropped from No. 11 to No. 16 following the loss to the Tigers. Next up, the Ducks (0-1) host Nevada (1-0) at Autzen Stadium on Saturday afternoon.


WOODS INJURY: There's no word on Washington State standout linebacker Jahad Woods, who had six tackles against New Mexico State before he left the game in the third quarter with an apparent shoulder injury.


Because Cougars coach Mike Leach doesn't talk about injuries, it's unlikely his status will be updated. But Woods' backup, walk-on redshirt freshman Hank Pladson, filled in the rest of the way and had his first interception in the 58-7 Washington State win.


Next up for the No. 23 Cougars (1-0) is Northern Colorado (0-1) on Saturday at Martin Stadium.


UCLA HAMPERED: The Bruins were without top running back Joshua Kelley (knee), receiver Theo Howard (hand/wrist), cornerback Darnay Holms (undisclosed) for Thursday night's 24-14 loss at Cincinnati.


Howard, a senior who had a streak of 28 games with a reception going into the opener, was injured for much of training camp but had recently returned to practice, as had Kelley.


Coach Chip Kelly said afterward that the Bruins ''made the decision we weren't going to put them out there if they weren't 100%. That wouldn't have been fair to the player and we're always going to err on the side of safety.''


Next up for UCLA (0-1) is San Diego State (1-0) at the Rose Bowl.


MELE STEPS UP: Harris was injured in the first half of the Huskies' 47-14 victory over Eastern Washington and did not return, but redshirt freshman backup Matteo Mele jumped right into the role.


Harris is week-to-week with an unspecified injury.


''You never know when that day is going to come where the guy's gotta go, so he (Mele) got a lot of good reps,'' coach Chris Petersen said. ''Gotta keep progressing with him and Nick's week-to-week, and we'll go from there.''


The Huskies (1-0) host California (1-0) on Saturday in another early conference game.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 2 Upset Alerts
September 4, 2019
By Matt Blunt


It was a mixed bag of results last week with the three underdog plays, as I was aided by playing one game early (Ole Miss), but hurt by playing another at the same time (Miami, Ohio) based on the lines.


Getting +5.5 with Mississippi managed to pay out even with the Memphis safety late, as that game was a great example of why it never hurts to be ahead of line moves. That game closed at -3, so those that waited to jump on the Rebels will not forget about that late safety Ole Miss gave up to lose by five.


At the same time, the Miami (Ohio) line closed at +25 most places, and the 24-point loss by the Redhawks managed to get their at the closer, just not at the +21.5 I had earlier in the week. That means there won't be any crazy run out of the gates on 20+ point underdogs like last year's 9-0 ATS run, but it also goes to show you that trying to time the market and predict where it could go up until kickoff is something to be considered as well.


A 1-2 ATS record to start the year is not great by any means, but there is still a very long way to go in the 2019 college football campaign, and hopefully Week 2 ends up on a better note. Let's get to this week's plays:


Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range
YTD: 0-1 SU; 1-0 ATS


Texas (+6.5) vs LSU
Tom Herman's ATS record as an underdog (13-2-1 ATS) is something that will be thrown out there a lot as this week goes on, as it's something that many love to hang their hat on. Since coming to Texas he's 8-2-1 ATS in that role, and while that's all well and good to have as support, it's not the main reason behind backing the Longhorns this week.


One, this line move up to almost a TD is far too much for a game of this magnitude, as yes, LSU looked great in beating up on Georgia Southern last week, but it's not like Texas didn't do what was asked of them in a win over Louisiana Tech as well. Furthermore, I doubt we see such a flawless performance from LSU QB Joe Burrow – 23-for-27 last week for 5 TD's – against this Longhorns defense that's at home, especially when LSU does have a bit of a reputation for botching things late in tight games against quality foes. Sure, the Tigers may come away with the outright win here, but it won't be until late, and it won't be by a TD or more.


I say that because laying points on the road in September has not been kind to LSU in recent years and this this game will be no exception. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, LSU has been favored five times on the road in September and their ATS record ins a perfect 0-5 ATS in those games. Heck, the Tigers are just 3-2 SU in those games with two of those wins coming by exactly two points, and the third coming by just 10 when they were laying -23.5 up at Syracuse in 2015. This is a scenario where fading the Tigers has paid off in the past, and when you do have a team like Texas on the other side, the severe climb on this number is just too much.


Herman's record as an underdog is just icing on the cake for this play, as hopefully the Longhorns can be the next team to be added to the list of LSU's chalky woes in September.


Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range
YTD: 0-1 SU; 0-1 ATS


Florida Atlantic (+10) vs UCF
Lane Kiffin always has his detractors in the betting world, and while I'm not the biggest fan of his, I am a big fan of backing him in this spot as a home underdog this week. It's those Kiffin detractors that have come out early this week in betting the UCF Knights up from a -9 opener to -10 currently, and while the Knights are still very talented with Brandon Wimbush playing QB this year, this is a program is still riding their recent resume too much in this marketplace.


It's going to be tough for UCF not to take a step back after two very good years the past two seasons, but I'm of the belief that step backwards will be bigger than most believe. Wimbush was a guy that struggled to protect the ball during his time at Notre Dame, and road favorites have a tough enough time as it is covering the number if they are protecting the ball. All it takes is a turnover or two for FAU to play with the lead for a significant chunk of this game and that is how I see it playing out.


At the same time, we've got to remember that this FAU team was only down by a 21-17 score at halftime in their trip to UCF last year, and that was with Mackenzie Milton and a healthy Knights squad. The wheels came off in the 3rd quarter for FAU in the 56-36 defeat, one that they haven't forgotten about this week thanks to people always using UCF as a reference point in terms of where this FAU program wants to get to. It was three INT's by Chris Robison that really hurt the Owls in that game a year ago, but another year wiser, and in more friendly territory this year, Robison should be much better in this spot.


Finally, while FAU is squarely focused on this game, UCF could be looking past them a bit and ahead to their home game next week against a ranked Stanford squad who could be ranked even higher if they knock off USC this week (that game was a late cut for the +1 to +9 range in this piece). It's been a few seasons now where UCF spoke out about the fact that nobody significant wanted to play them and it's why their undefeated season wasn't valued as high as it should of been, and now next week they get that opportunity. That's a big step forward for them, and even with this being an in-state rivalry game, chances are the allure of that Stanford game in Week 3 has at least some of UCF's attention this week.


So look for this game to be a back-and-forth grind, similar to what the 1st half was between these two a year ago. FAU is more equipped (and UCF is less equipped) to sustain that level of play for the full 60 minutes just 12 months later, as this game ends up being a one-score game either way.


Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range
YTD: 0-1 ATS


UTEP (+34.5) vs Texas Tech
The general theme of this piece has been more about fading these favorites then specifically backing the underdog, and this play really is no different. UTEP is a program that should be improved this year, but when you were 1-11 SU a year ago, it's tough to go anywhere but up. The fact that they struggled to even beat Houston Baptist last week testifies to it likely being another year of sub-4 wins for the Miners, but we just need them to hang around with a Texas Tech team that probably shouldn't be laying quite this much.


A 35-point win over Middle Tennessee last week has helped push this spread into that exact range, but with a trip out west on deck to face Arizona, before starting their Big 12 schedule with the two Oklahoma schools afterwards, it should be all about survive and move on for the Red Raiders this week.


All it can take is a couple of scores for UTEP offensively to stay within this number, and even though it was a far weaker opponent, the fact that the Miners put up 36 points last week was a big positive. They run the ball enough to help bleed the clock away in a scenario like this where the Red Raiders may run out of time before being able to surpass this spread, and against a Tech defense that's likely to get gashed plenty come Big 12 play, the Miners should find reasonable success in moving the ball to keep that clock moving.

 

[CNOTES]

College Football Picks: Texas and A&M try to win the breakup
September 4, 2019
By The Associated Press


Texas and Texas A&M don't play anymore. The best their fans can do is compare resumes since the split, gloating about their team's successes and basking in the failures of their rival.


There has been more basking then gloating.


This weekend, the Aggies and Longhorns play in college football's biggest games. No. 12 Texas A&M visits No. 1 Clemson and No. 9 Texas hosts No. 6 LSU. It's a prime opportunity for fans of the estranged rivals (who are so over each other!) to assess which program is winning the breakup.


Since the Aggies joined the Southeastern Conference, leaving the Big 12 and Longhorns behind, they are 60-31, peaking in Year 1 with Heisman winner Johnny Manziel leading A&M to an 11-2 season that included a victory at Alabama, a Cotton Bowl win over Oklahoma and a final ranking of No. 5.


The Aggies have not broken nine wins since, but optimism is high in coach Jimbo Fisher's second season.


That's an OK run, but compared to Texas, it has been high times in College Station.


The Longhorns are 50-40, with three losing seasons since A&M left. Last year's 10-4 breakthrough season under coach Tom Herman was the high point, including a Sugar Bowl victory against Georgia and a final ranking of No. 9.


Advantage, Aggies. Both programs seem to be trending in the right direction, but Saturday's games will be measuring sticks - in part against each other.


The picks:


FRIDAY


Marshall (plus 10+) at No. 24 Boise State


Excluding a couple losses to independent BYU, the Broncos have not lost a regular-season nonconference game to a team outside a Power Five conference since 1999 ... BOISE STATE 35-21, BEST BET.

SATURDAY


No. 12 Texas A&M (plus 17) at No. 1 Clemson


When they played last year in College Station, QB Trevor Lawrence did not start for Clemson and WR Justyn Ross hardly played ... CLEMSON 42-21.


New Mexico State (plus 54+) at No. 2 Alabama


Fifty-four and a half!?! ... ALABAMA 56-7.


Cincinnati (plus 16) at No. 5 Ohio State


Bearcats coach Luke Fickell, a longtime Buckeye as player and coach, returns to Columbus ... OHIO STATE 31-14.


No. 6 LSU (minus 5+) at No. 9 Texas


Longhorns coach Tom Herman's teams are 13-2-1 against the spread as an underdog since 2015; more importantly, Herman's teams have won 10 games (five with Texas and five with Houston) as an underdog ... LSU 24-17.


Army (plus 23) at No. 7 Michigan


Cadets and Wolverines have not played since 1962, the last of nine meetings from 1945-62; Army won the first five and Michigan the last four ... MICHIGAN 38-14.


Tulane (plus 18) at No. 10 Auburn


The Green Wave is not quite a walkover for the Tigers after an emotional victory ... AUBURN 41-17.


Northern Illinois (plus 21+) at No. 13 Utah


The Huskies averaged 2.6 yards on 35 rushes last week against Illinois State. Good luck moving the Utes ... UTAH 31-6.


California (plus 14) at No. 14 Washington


The Bears upset the Huskies in a defensive struggle last year ... WASHINGTON 27-10.


Buffalo (plus 29+) at No. 15 Penn State


The Nittany Lions probably won't go for 79 against the Bulls ... PENN STATE 48-17.


Nevada (plus 23+) at No. 16 Oregon


The Wolf Pack will be greeted by an angry flock of Ducks ... OREGON 45-20.


Central Michigan (plus 35) at No. 17 Wisconsin


Could be another stat stuffer for Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor ... WISCONSIN 45-7.


No. 18 UCF (minus 10) at FAU


The Knights have scored at least 30 points in 27 straight games ... UCF 38-24.


Western Michigan (plus 16+) at No. 19 Michigan State


The Spartans will need to muster a little more offense against a WMU team that can move the ball ... MICHIGAN STATE 34-20.


Rutgers (plus 19) at No. 20 Iowa


With Texas Tech transfer McLane Carter at QB, Scarlet Knights have potential for a competent offense ... IOWA 42-17.


No. 21 Syracuse (plus 2) at Maryland


This has looked like it could be a tricky spot for the Orange and odds makers obviously agree ... SYRACUSE 28-27.


No. 23 Stanford (plus 1) at Southern California


Possible battle of backup quarterbacks in the annual early Pac-12 tone-setter for Cardinal and Trojans ... USC 23-20.


No. 25 Nebraska (minus 3+) at Colorado


Tommie Frazier and Kordell Stewart aren't walking through that tunnel, but the former Big 8 and Big 12 rivals played a thriller last year in Lincoln. Maybe they can repeat it in Boulder ... COLORADO 31-28.


TWITTER REQUESTS


BYU (plus 3+) at Tennessee - (at)BrandonOCook


No way the Vols play that poorly again ... TENNESSEE 24-16.


Miami (minus 4+) at North Carolina - (at)JeffMiles9


Turnover chain vs. Dancing Mack ... MIAMI 28-20.


Minnesota (minus 3) at Fresno State - (at)JEMicklos


The Gophers handed the Bulldogs one of only two losses last season ... MINNESOTA 24-23.


Arkansas (plus 6+) at Mississippi - (at)ARKgolfguy3


It's early, but this could decide last in the SEC West ... ARKANSAS 21-17, UPSET SPECIAL.


North Texas (plus 3+) at SMU - (at)markwnorris


Points. Lots of points ... SMU 42-35.


---


Season: 21-4 straight; 10-14 against the spread.


Upset specials: 0-1 (straight up).


Best bets: 0-1 (against the spread).

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


— A’s 6, Angels 0— Rookie C Murphy caught a shutout, hit a home run in his first big league game.


— Pirates 6, Marlins 5— Bryan Reynolds had a walk-off bloop single for the Bucs.


— Giants 9, Cardinals 8— Pillar’s two-run tater in 8th inning was the game-winner.


— Arizona 4, Padres 1— Rookie P Gallen tossed seven shutout innings.


— Reds 8, Phillies 5— Cincy’s Michael Lorenzen became the first player to earn a win, hit a HR and play in the field in the same game since Babe Ruth in 1921.


— Dodgers’ Joc Pederson hit five HR’s in a span of six AB’s, first time thats been done since Barry Bonds in 2001.




**********


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……


13) Ezekiel Elliott got a 6-year contract extension from the Cowboys worth more than $90M, with $50M+ in guarantees. Cowboys are 28-12 in regular season games when Elliott plays, and so he got paid.


12) Scary moment in Houston Tuesday night when Astros CF George Springer made a leaping catch in centerfield, but then stumbled and the back of his head hit the wall. Springer was in obvious pain and left the game.


11) Rhode Island is the 7th state with a mobile sports betting app; 13 states have sports betting, but the mobile app really increases betting handle.


I was sitting at a bar when we heard that Andrew Luck retired; imagine being able to grab your phone, jump into the betting app and trying to capitalize on that news? Would’ve been fun.


10) Football Outsiders Almanac projects the Miami Dolphins to be the NFL’s worst team; their projection is the worst one for any team since the 2012 Rams, who also had a new coach (Jeff Fisher) but they improved from 2-14 (under Steve Spagnuolo in 2011) to 7-8-1 that year.


What Miami is doing this seems similar to what the Raiders did LY, when they traded Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper for draft picks. Raiders finished 4-12 last year.


9) Speaking of the Raiders, my review of HBO’s Hard Knocks this summer:


— They didn’t show when guys get released, which is usually the most interesting part of the show; most of the late cuts get picked up somewhere else, anyway.


— Too much Jon Gruden; he’s gotten ton of airtime the last few years.


— Antonio Brown is finally healthy (His father was a great player in the Arena League– played for the Albany Firebirds)


Was reading an article that said that Gruden/Mike Mayock wanted no part of being in Hard Knocks, but this was owner Mark Davis’ doing. That probably explains why HBO wasn’t given very good access.


8) By the way, Raiders have already fined Antonio Brown $53,950 for missing mandatory preseason activities.


7) Washington QB Jake Haener has transferred to Fresno State, where he’ll play for Jeff Tedford, who was Aaron Rodgers’ college coach. He’ll sit this season out and then will be eligible to play two more years.


6) Michigan State lost its long snapper, a 5th-year senior; he’s being replaced by a freshman.


5) New York 4, Texas 1— Bronx is now 10-0 the last ten times Will Little umped the plate in one of their games.


4) Around 11pm Wednesday, someone wagered $30,000 on the Buffalo Bills over 6.5 wins this season; the Westgate SuperBook reacted by moving up Bills’ win total up to 7 wins.


3) TV guys totally missed this Monday night, but there was a play in the Notre Dame-Louisville game Monday night when ND quarterback Ian Book threw a pass away, with the ball going way out of bounds- it drilled a Louisville cheerleader in the face.


Turns out the young lady broke her nose and is seeing a specialist for treatment. Not good.


2) Something to keep in mind when handicapping September baseball; some of the teams that aren’t contending aren’t 100% trying to win; they have to take a look at their younger players, and some teams have innings limits on their pitchers.


Wednesday night in Arizona, San Diego took starting P Chris Paddack out of a 0-0 game in the sixth inning because he hit the 90-pitch mark; if the Padres were contending, no way he comes out there. But they don’t want Paddack overextending himself, so he came out.


1) I still disagree with teams who bat their pitcher 8th, and I’ve spent way too much time thinking about why they do it. It makes very little sense to me.


**********


Armadillo: Thursday’s extra list of 13: College football trends from outside the top 13 games of the week


Ohio U covered six of last seven tries as a road underdog; Bobcats ran ball for 278 yards in 41-20 win over a I-AA foe LW. Ohio has a senior QB, an OL with only 45 returning starts. Pittsburgh was held to 263 yards in its 30-14 loss to ACC rival Virginia LW; under Narduzzi, Panthers are 5-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-2 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.


Old Dominion (+27) outscored Virginia Tech 28-7 in 4th quarter of 49-35 upset win LY; total yardage in game was 632-600, ODU. Monarchs lost 13 of 22 starters from LY; they’re 5-4 ATS as a road underdog. Tech was minus-4 in turnovers in its 35-28 loss at BC last week; under Fuente, Hokies are 9-5 ATS as home favorites. Last four years, ACC teams are 11-5 vs spread when they play a C-USA opponent.


UAB completed only 8-20 passes in its 24-19 win over I-AA Alabama State LW; Blazers are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite. UAB has a soph QB and an OL with only 30 returning starts. Akron is just 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games as a home underdog; Zips got waxed 42-3 at Illinois LW, giving up 207 yards on ground. Last four years, MAC teams are 15-8-1 ATS when playing a C-USA opponent.


Vanderbilt was outgained 481-225 at home in a 30-6 loss to Georgia LW; under Mason, Commodores are 13-11 ATS as a road underdog- they’re 6-3 ATS in last nine games outside the SEC. Purdue blew 24-7 halftime lead in LW’s 34-31 loss at Nevada; under Brohm, Boilers are 4-5 ATS as a home favorite. Last four years, SEC teams are 8-5 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Iowa (-13) won 14-7 at Rutgers three years ago, in teams’ only meeting. Scarlet Knights won their opener 48-21 over UMass- they outgained Minutemen 548-307. Under Ash, Rutgers is 7-8 ATS as a road underdog. Hawkeyes covered five of last seven tries as a home favorite- they drilled Miami OH last week, outgaining Red Hawks, 465-245. Iowa has a senior QB but only four starters back on defense.


North Texas (-4) beat SMU 46-23 LY, ending its 3-game skid against the Mustangs; Mean Green beat a I-AA team 51-31 LW, but they gave up 456 yards. UNT has a senior QB (37 starts). SMU won its opener 37-30 at Arkansas State LW, gaining 508 TY. Mustangs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Last 6+ years, AAC teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing C-USA teams.


South Florida (+3) beat Georgia Tech 49-38 LY, despite giving up 419 YR- Tech doesn’t run the option anymore- they lost their opener 52-14 at Clemson LW, giving up 411 YR to the Tigers. Tech is 9-5 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite. Over last decade, USF is 20-10 ATS as a road underdog. Bulls got hammered 49-0 by Wisconsin LW. AAC are 16-9 ATS in their last 25 games vs ACC opponents.


Tulsa hammered San Jose State 45-10 (-5) in last meeting in 2016; Golden Hurricane was held to 80 yards LW in its 28-7 loss at Michigan State- Tulsa had minus-73 YR. Last three years, Tulsa is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite. San Jose beat a I-AA team 35-18 LW; Spartans are 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 10-0 vs spread when playing an AAC opponent.


Over last six years, UConn is 3-22 ATS outside its conference, 0-12 last three years. Illinois had 207 yards running, 194 passing in its 42-3 win over Akron LW; Illini has 10 starters back on defense, but a new QB. Over last five years, Illini is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. UConn held off I-AA Wagner 24-21 LW, a red flag; Huskies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. AAC teams are 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games vs Big 14 opponents.


Arkansas State (-7.5) beat UNLV 27-20 at home LY; Rebels ran ball for 310 yards, though. Last three years, ASU is 8-9 ATS on road. Red Wolves lost their opener 37-30 at home to SMU LW. UNLV hammered a I-AA team LW; Rebels are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 home games, 9-15 under Sanchez. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.


San Diego State beat a I-AA team 6-0 LW, gaining only 238 TY with 14 first downs- not good. Last three year, Aztecs are 3-1 as road underdogs- they’ve got a senior QB and an OL with 69 returning starts. UCLA lost 24-14 at Cincy LW, completing 8-26 passes, gaining only 218 yards. Last five years, Bruins are 8-15 as a home favorite. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 13-10 ATS when playing a Pac-12 opponent.


Trap game for Wyoming after they beat Missouri LW as 18-point dogs. Wyoming (-16) drilled Texas State 45-10 in last meeting two years ago, but that was with Josh Allen at QB. Cowboys are 3-6 ATS in last nine non-league games. TSU lost 41-7 at Texas A&M LW; they’re 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home underdog. Last three years, Mountain West teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.


Central Florida (-13) waxed Florida Atlantic 56-36, gaining 545 TY. last three years, UCF is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite. Knights have a senior who transferred from Notre Dame- their OL has 75 returning starts. FAU was down 28-0 after 8:10 at Ohio State LW; Owls covered only once in their last eight tries as a home underdog. Last 6+ years, AAC teams are 15-13 vs spread when playing C-USA teams.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia


Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:


Early Starts


Ohio U. at Pittsburgh (-5.5/54), 11 a.m. ET, ACCN: The Bobcats struggled to stop Rhode Island on a few occasions last week and failed to cover, so this will be quite the test on the road at Heinz Field. An offensive line that replaced three key starters held up, but they too will come under fire against the Panthers, who will looking to avoid an 0-2 start after losing to Virginia since they’ll play Penn State and UCF next and would likely be headed for an 0-4 start if they’re upset here. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett missed a lot of throws against the Cavaliers and was intercepted twice in the second half, so he could be under fire if he struggles again. Pitt’s offensive line and receivers also struggled in its ACC opener and you best believe that senior QB Nathan Rourke and a disciplined Bobcats team that has a shot at a 10-win season will take advantage if they struggle again. The Ohio money line is coming off at +180 and early action dropped the line down from 6.5.

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech (-28/56), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Legendary Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s swansong began in dubious fashion as Boston College racked up 35 points in an upset win in Chestnut Hill but he’ll be matched with a familiar face since ODU run-game coordinator Bryan Stinespring ran the o-line and recruiting for Va Tech for over a decade. This final home opener for him may mandate that he replace standout sophomore rush end TyJuan Garbutt, who was injured on a block against BC. DE Zion Debose is expected to be sidelined a while and a couple of others are banged up, so we’ll get to see what kind of defensive depth the Hokies are working with after a rough ACC opener. The Monarchs (+27) beat Virginia Tech 49-35 last season in one of the season’s biggest upsets but return only a handful of key players on both sides of the ball and narrowly beat FCS member Norfolk State 24-21 last week.

UAB (-9.5/46.5) at Akron, 12 p.m. ET, CBSSN: The Blazers looked lifeless in their season-opening win over Alabama State and narrowly escaped 24-19 despite being listed as a 40-point favorite at some books. UAB played vanilla and then found itself in a battle it wasn’t expecting, so we’ll likely get a much better indication of what to expect from its group coming off last season’s 11-win and first-ever bowl victory, but there’s definitely concern. Most of last season’s key contributors are gone and the win over the Hornets featured an abundance of brutal miscues. UAB was 1-for-13 on third down. The Zips were trounced 42-3 at Illinois as dual threat QB Kato Nelson found very little space to run and spent most of the day running for his life. Clearly, first-year Akron head coach Tom Arth has his work cut out for him as he takes over for Terry Bowden, who had been present for every home opener since 2012.

Army at Michigan (-22/47), 12 p.m ET, FOX: The Black Knights barely survived Rice 14-7 and take the field in Ann Arbor for their biggest challenge until November’s visit to Air Force and December’s date with Navy, so expect them to take their shot. Senior QB Kelvin Hopkins ran and threw for over 1,000 yards last season, so his arm gives Army a dimension it typically wouldn’t have and gives it a puncher’s chance to hang around with the bigger, more talented Wolverines if they can effectively utilize the element of surprise. Remember, Army took Kyler Murray-led Oklahoma to overtime last season as a 30-point underdog and hung 70 points on Houston in last December’s Armed Forces Bowl. The Wolverines weren’t as stifling as they were expected to be against Middle Tennessee, surrendering 21 points. That total is higher than any surrendered last season with the exception of games against Notre Dame, Ohio State and the bowl loss to Florida. Blindly betting the under here is awfully tempting given the presence of Army and Jim Harbaugh, but with Shea Patterson and Dylan McCaffrey splitting snaps and Michigan pushing tempo, that’s no longer a gimme.

Vanderbilt at Purdue (-7/55.5), 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Commodores generated little offense against Georgia in a 30-6 loss, but head coach Derek Mason diffused any talk of a quarterback controversy and will stick with Ball State transfer Riley Neal over backup Deuce Wallace. Between blanket coverage from the Dawgs and some awful snaps from new center Grant Miller that had him on his heels all night, Neal found no rhythm and will now be asked to generate some momentum on the road as he returns to his home state. The Boilermakers will be attempting to bounce back after blowing a double-digit lead at Nevada due to an awful, mistake-filled second half. Nick Holt couldn’t get his pass defense to get a stop when he needed it most on a windy night. Purdue opened 0-3 last season and will host TCU next week before settling in for Big Ten play, so we’re going to learn a lot about who it is over the next two weeks. DT Lorenzo Neal is likely out again due to a knee injury that has kept him out of camp and top corner Kenneth Major is questionable after leaving the Nevada loss. Boilers QB Elijah Sindelar threw for 423 yards and four scores, so there’s reason to be encouraged despite the early hiccup. Electric receiver Rondale Moore isn’t going to blow any more games making mistakes on punt returns.

Rutgers at Iowa (-20/49.5), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Scarlet Knights gave up 21 first-quarter points to UMass before settling in and clamping down, but they wouldn’t be able to bounce back from that type of start if they start slowly in Iowa City. Texas Tech transfer QB McLane Carter is a playmaker. He’ll make mistakes, but the lefty is the best passer Rutgers has had in years. Isaih Pacheco and Raheem Blackshear are powerful runners who will be able to get forward if the line opens holes. Rutgers hasn’t won on the road since 2017 and have won only one of their last 15 Big Ten roadies, so this will be a huge challenge. The Hawkeyes are on another level than the Minutemen but only beat Rutgers 14-7 when these teams met last in ’16 and visit Iowa State next week. They trailed Miami (Ohio) 7-3 in the second quarter before getting going last week and have to overcome injury-related absences along the offensive line and at corner.

Syracuse at Maryland (-1.5/57), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Orange didn’t put a lot on tape last week that the Terps coaching staff could use outside of Dino Babers doing pushups and waving at Liberty’s Hugh Freeze up in the press box. QB Tommy DeVito threw two costly picks and showed a lack of chemistry with his receivers that has to be a concern as the level of competition increases. The Terps obliterated overmatched Howard 79-0, so this will be the first real look at what they can do under new head coach Mike Locksley. Virginia Tech transfer QB Joshua Jackson has weapons around him and plenty of experience against ACC defenses, so we’re going to learn a lot about both programs after this one.

West Virginia at Missouri (-13.5/62.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: Kelly Bryant put up big numbers in his debut but the Tigers couldn’t hold a lead at Wyoming and ultimately lost a 37-31 shootout in Laramie. Mizzou’s next five games will all be at home, which could make for an uncomfortable situation for Barry Odom if his team’s level doesn’t pick up. The Tigers are 5-19 when they fail to score 40 points since he took over for Gary Pinkel, so there’s immense pressure to get things turned around defensively. West Virginia will be playing its first FBS foe under new head coach Neal Brown, but the Mountaineers were definitely tested by FCS power James Madison. Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall will be a competent replacement for Will Grier, but West Virginia will rely on its ground game much more than it did under Dana Holgorsen and has four competent backs led by senior leader Kennedy McKoy.

Cincinnati at Ohio State (-15.5/54), 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Luke Fickell returns home with bad intentions as he brings the Bearcats into Columbus. The former Ohio State nose guard turned defensive coach never coached will be facing his alma mater for the first time since leaving and has a reasonable shot of snapping the Buckeyes’ 41-game winning streak against in-state opponents. QB Justin Fields looked sharp early in his Ohio State debut before the offense sputtered, but this Bearcats defense is far superior to what he saw against the Owls. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder can make plays with his arm and his feet, while RB Michael Warren is a horse who will make it his mission to outperform JK Dobbins. The Bearcats defeated UCLA without star safety James Wiggins (torn ACL), but his absence will be felt here. It’s going to be on Fickell’s schemes and Ridder’s playmaking to overcome not having his impact. Cincinnati is +600 on the moneyline at Westgate.

Bowling Green at Kansas State (-14.5/48.5), 12 p.m. ET: Both of these teams got off to fast starts under new head coaches and feature dynamic dual threat quarterbacks. Darius Wade, who started at Boston College and in ’17 and spent last season at Delaware, debuted for Bowling Green against Morgan State and threw for three scores to get Scot Loeffler his first victory. The Falcons outgained the FCS-member Bears 620-70, so we’ll see how they fare fighting an uphill battle on the road. Transfer QB Matt McMahon, another BC transfer who was expected to start ahead of Wade, still hasn’t been cleared to play by the NCAA. The Wildcats won easily in Chris Klieman’s debut, routing Nicholls State 49-14. Skylar Thompson, who split the gig the past few years, has a chance to take the next step as a junior and shined in his debut in a new system that will allow him to showcase his passing. After such dominant openers, we’ll get a better feel for these teams after this one.

Northern Illinois at Utah (-23.5/58.5), 1 p.m. ET, Pac-12: Former Huskies running back Thomas Hammock has taken over as head coach after Rod Carey’s departure to Temple and led NIU to a 24-10 win over FCS member Illinois State. The game was tied 3-3 at the break and Cal grad transfer Ross Bowers has controversially replaced returning junior starter Marcus Childers, a former MAC Freshman of the Year who played hero in last year’s conference title game. It wouldn’t be surprising if a divided group arrives in Salt Lake City, which wouldn’t bode well for the Huskies’ chances of pulling an upset against a defense expected to be among the nation’s best. Utah looked the part in hammering BYU, getting a pick-six from rover Francis Bernard and excellent play from the secondary that included Tareke Lewis shining opposite standout Jaylon Johnson. NIU’s projected team total has been set at 10.5..

South Florida at Georgia Tech (-6/61.5), 2 p.m. ET, ACCN: The Bulls were destroyed at home by Wisconsin 49-0 while the Yellow Jackets landed a few punches against Clemson but were thoroughly dominated. Blake Barnett will have top slot guy Johnny Ford back and hopes to find an early rhythm that eluded what was expected to be a fast-paced USF offense. Georgia Tech was able to move the ball some on Clemson before sputtering around the goal line. It has replaced Paul Johnson’s triple-option with a shotgun spread and will ultimately start junior Lucas Johnson ahead of Tobias Oliver, but they’re expected to go with the sophomore runner here. Last year’s 49-38 loss down in Tampa saw Georgia Tech surrender a pair of crucial kickoff returns for touchdowns, so we’ll see how a new-look special teams holds up.

Afternoon Delights


Nebraska (-4/65) at Colorado, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX: The ‘Huskers sputtered offensively in the opener against South Alabama, struggling up front and scoring just two offensive touchdowns in a 35-14 where the defense and special teams outscored Scott Frost’s high-octane attack. QB Adrian Martinez has vowed to play better and RB Maurice Washington, suspended for a half and in the midst of a revenge porn court case that has been pushed back another week, is expected to see more action alongside Georgia Tech transfer Dedric Mills, who scored both Nebraska offensive touchdowns. Colorado pulled away from Colorado State to capture another Rocky Mountain Showdown. QB Steven Montez looks healthy and took advantage of the attention the Rams paid to star WR Laviska Shenault in order to help score 52 points. The Buffs won the first installment of this rivalry since 2010 in Lincoln last season on a Montez-Shenault hookup with 1:06 left. Colorado is just 2-7-1 against the ‘Huskers in Boulder since 1991.

Texas A&M at Clemson (-17.5/64), 3:30 p.m ET, ABC: Kellen Mond looked extremely sharp against Texas State and is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the country, so if he’s able to find a rhythm, the Aggies can supply headaches as the rare SEC double-digit dog in a non-conference game. They’ll need Trevor Lawrence to struggle the way he did against Georgia Tech after he was visibly off, throwing two interceptions and missing various throws. Tigers slot WR Amari Rodgers is expected to suit up six months after tearing his ACL, so he’ll add a dimension to an already explosive passing attack. Travis Etienne dominated the opener with a career-high 205 yards on the ground but will go up against an A&M defense that held Texas State to eight rushing yards and did a nice job last year in nearly engineering a home upset, losing 28-26 last Sept. 8. The top six tacklers from that group are gone, but talented defensive coordinator Mike Elko does bring a talented group into Death Valley.

Central Michigan at Wisconsin (-35/51.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: The Badgers blanked South Florida and could blank another opponent as the Chippewas visit Camp Randall. Over the past four years under head coach Paul Chryst, Wisconsin has won its first home game by an average score of roughly 51-6. The Chips’ team total is around 7.5 despite the presence of senior RB Jonathan Ward, who racked up over 200 yards against Albany and has done damage against Power-5 schools before. Tennessee transfer Quinten Dormady debuted with 285 passing yards and two scores last week. Former Florida head coach Jim McElwain will learn a lot about his new team here. Jonathan Taylor should have another big game given his form and how poorly they’ve stopped the run, but the x-factor to who notches this cover will likely be Badgers QB Jack Coan, who should have one-on-one opportunities he’ll need to capitalize on to convince dubious Badger nation that he should be playing ahead of prized freshman Graham Mertz.

Charlotte at Appalachian State (-22.5/53.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+: The Mountaineers have won 41 games over the past four seasons, but that success got Scot Satterfield the Louisville job and he took most of the coaching staff with him. Talented offensive mind Eli Drinkwitz has taken over, inheriting 16 starters who helped open the season with a blowout win. App State is heavily favored here with Charlotte undergoing a facelift in Year 1 of the Will Healy era. The 33-year old wants to push tempo and figures to take some risks, so this will be a measuring-stick game for the 49ers prior to next week’s home date against UMass. The 49 points they scored last week in beating Gardner-Webb were a program-high since moving up to the FBS level. Appalachian State won last season’s meeting 45-9 and will have a week off to prepare for statement game at North Carolina.

Southern Miss at Mississippi State (-16.5/52), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU: The Golden Eagles have posted three consecutive winning seasons and are expected to be one of Conference USA’s top teams this season, so they’re hoping to be around to steal this come fourth quarter. Louisiana hung around with the Bulldogs for the better part of four quarters last week, but that game was played in New Orleans. The atmosphere should be much friendlier in Starkville, where they’ll be getting a look at Penn State senior grad transfer Tommy Stevens, who won the QB job from Keytaon Thompson in the offseason but will have to continue fighting him off since the junior who had long served as Nick Fitzgerald’s backup took his name out of the transfer protocol and returned to practice this past week. Southern Miss QB Jack Abraham led the nation in completion percentage last season. The Eagles are 1-4 against SEC foes under head coach Jay Hopson but have covered the number in three of those games.

Illinois (-20.5/59) at UConn, 4 p.m. ET, CBSSN: The Fighting Illini put together one of last Saturday’s most impressive performances in destroying Akron 42-3, overpowering the Zips up front. Having Michigan transfer Brandon Peters under center was a big deal, but the defense Lovie Smith called and how effectively his unit carried out his orders was what stood out most. The Illini did lose RB Mike Epstein to a season-ending knee injury. Reggie Corbin will now have more of a workload and should have a huge season, health permitted. He’s expected to play despite banging up a hip against the Zips. UConn held on to beat Wagner 24-21 as Randy Edsall debuted new coordinators on both sides of the ball in addition to starting QB Mike Beaudry, a Canadian who won a D-II title at West Florida in 2017. Illinois hasn’t won a non-conference road game in 12 years but is a heavy favorite that has taken a lot of action in Vegas, moving the line from 20 to where it stands now.

UT-San Antonio at Baylor (-25.5/57), 4 p.m. ET: The Bears bounced back from a 1-11 mark in Matt Rhule’s first year to pulling off back-to-back upsets of Texas Tech and Vanderbilt in order to record a winning season and a Texas Bowl title. They could take a major step forward and compete for a spot in the Big 12 title game since Oklahoma and Texas come through Waco late in the season, but it’s going to take Charlie Brewer developing into one of the league’s top passers and an offensive line that has historically struggled to keep the better defensive teams from disrupting the team’s offensive rhythm. UT-San Antonio defeated the Bears two seasons ago as 15-point favorites and just missed covering in a 37-20 home loss at the Alamodome last year. Redshirt sophomore Frank Harris won the QB battle and had an impressive debut against Incarnate Word, bouncing back from an ACL tear last spring. The Roadrunners’ win at Baylor on their last trip into Waco remains their only victory over a Power-5.

New Mexico State at Alabama (-55/64), 4 p.m. ET, SECN: Tua Tagovailoa will likely out of the game by halftime, so covering this substantial spread will hinge on true freshman Taulia Tagovailoa, who handed off to Jerome Ford on his late TD that ultimately buried Duke bettors. He’ll follow sophomore Mac Jones, who moved the chains against the Blue Devils and is likely to follow Tua. There’s not a lot to this one other than betting on Alabama’s overwhelming talent or expecting some complacency with the Tide’s first road game coming up next week. The Aggies lost 58-7 to Washington State last week and now heads south to collect a check here. New Mexico’s worst loss last season came in a 60-13 loss at Utah State.

San Diego State at UCLA (-7.5/45.5), 4:15 p.m. ET, Pac-12: With games against Oklahoma and Washington State following this one, Chip Kelly is going to be in a world of trouble on the heels of last year’s 3-9 run. UCLA started 0-5 last season and was shut down in a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati on Aug. 29. Dorian Thompson-Robinson missed some throws, but there’s still hope that the light will turn on for him in Kelly’s system. The Bruins will have a few extra days of preparation but will have to deal with a San Diego State defense that shut out Weber State to bail out the offense in a 6-0 season-opening dud of a win. QB Ryan Agnew has returned, but his top three targets are gone. Top RB Juwan Washington is questionable with an ankle injry. The Aztecs have never beaten the Bruins, coming in 0-21-1. Rocky Long has won four of his last five games against Pac-12 schools outright.

UL-Monroe at Florida State (-21/63), 5 p.m. ET, ACCN: It looked like the Seminoles were indeed back for the better part of their first contest. If it hadn’t been for a pair of defensive touchdowns getting called back due to replay, they may have knocked the Broncos out. Instead, Boise hung around, overcome and then dominated upon taking the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. The ‘Noles didn’t score in the second half, which means they’ll have something to prove here regardless of what the score is at the break. James Blackman moved the offense, but new coordinator Kendal Briles is going to need to show more than he managed to in contributing to the meltdown. ULM lost its last game against a Power-5 70-21 at Ole Miss last season and fell in Tallahassee 42-10 in the final regular-season game of the ’17 season. The Warhawks handled Grambling 31-9 as former Ole Miss commit Josh Johnson finished with 173 yards on just 10 carries, scoring twice.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Moves - Week 2
September 5, 2019
By Matt Blunt

College Football Week 2 Total Moves
This inaugural piece last week ended up showing that it was better to be agreeable with the early market moves in the end, as a slow start in the Alabama/Duke game killed any chance of that game sailing 'over' the number.


Oregon and Auburn never threatened any of their numbers in the 50's with Auburn's walk-off 27-21 win, so staying low there proved to be the right call, even after the significant move is enough to pause on taking a worse number. With the way college football totals fluctuate throughout the week, there are going to be times where bets throughout the week will be made at worse numbers, but hopefully the work has been done to suggest that it's still the right side. Being agreeable by nature can be very hard for some, but especially early in the year, following those early moves tend to end up as the better proposition overall.


That being said, hopefully we can find a winner on this week's total disagreement and sweep the board. Here are the two games that we can hopefully grab some winners on. The moves aren't nearly as big as last week's given that those lines were out for weeks/months before kickoff and it's just been a week now, but they are moves just the same.


YTD: 1-1 ATS


Week 2 Total move to disagree with:


Nevada/Oregon from 62.5 to 61
Two weeks into the season and having the Oregon Ducks have already made this piece two times was not something I expected. But after going 'low' in their game last week for a winner, early action in the market has come right back with an 'under' play here on a total that even opened up as high as 63/64 at a book or two.


While Oregon's defense looked great against Auburn for the first 50+ minutes of that game, that performance also had the feel of that Ducks defense “shooting their shot.” Everything had been building to that crescendo of the Auburn game all off-season and the Ducks defense was definitely prepared and played up to and perhaps over their heads. Now it's just a week later, after the crushing way that they lost that game, back at home and up against a Nevada team that you are favored to beat by 3+ TD's? Pretty easy spot for the Ducks defense to mentally check out at times and let a Nevada team – that put up 30+ in their opener – threaten to hit that mark again.


Oregon's offense will get their points as well as Herbert and company look to take out some frustration from last week's results against a Nevada defense that will likely provide little resistance. The Wolf Pack gave up 423 passing yards to Purdue last week, 519 total yards, and the bulk of that came in just three quarters as a 17-0 4th quarter scoreline propelled Nevada to the comeback win. Give a much better team like Oregon that type of room to operate for 60 minutes though, and the Ducks and their uptempo scheme will put up a lot more than the 31 points Purdue had last week, especially if Nevada's defense struggles to get off the field again. Purdue was 50% in converting 3rd downs in that game (9-for-18) and 100% on the 4th down they tried (2-for-2), so Oregon's offense should be able to walk up and down the field on this team.


With Oregon's defense coming into this game with questionable motivation levels after going all out in that Auburn game after months of prep time, last week's box score and eye test from that Ducks defense might suggest a low-scoring game, but it likely ends up otherwise.
Week 2 Total move to agree with:


Illinois/Connecticut from 63.5 to 59.5
It's always tough to trust two bad teams to put up plenty of points from the standpoint that bad teams just don't execute well consistently enough. Sure, there is the approach that they are bad, and bad teams give up a lot of points, but there is always two parts to that equation, and if the opposing offense can't do anything with those turnovers, well then totals in the high 50's, low 60's are going to be hard to surpass.


Illinois and Connecticut are projected to be basement dwellers in the AAC and Big 10 West respectively, as wins will be hard to come by. The funny thing in that regard is that the winner of this game will be 2-0 SU on the year before plenty of pain comes, and should it be Illinois who gets up big early as they are expected to as 20-point favorites, sitting on the ball and letting a rushing attack that had five different guys carry the ball at least six times last week chew up the remaining clock.


A move like this was expected, and anything lower than this is where you start to worry more about it being a bad number. But unless this game is filled with multiple red zone turnovers on both ends, this will not be a game that gets much more then 50 points scored.


Other Notable Moves


Down
Southern Mississippi-Mississippi State: 52.5 to 50.5
Western Kentucky-Florida International: 59.5 to 55.5
Arkansas-Mississippi: 53 to 50.5


Up
Coastal Carolina-Kansas: 52 to 54.5
Tulsa-San Jose State: 50 to 52.5
BYU-Tennessee: 51 to 53


(Current Odds as of Thursday)

 

[CNOTES]

Six FCS teams that need a Week 2 do-over
September 5, 2019
By STATS LLC Editorial


(STATS) - The biggest cliché in college football this week is being voiced by coaches who say the biggest improvement of the season occurs between the first and seconds games.


Some FCS teams whose play was surprisingly poor in their first game truly hope the sentiment rings true.


Here are six teams that are embracing a Week 2 do-over:


No. 18 Jacksonville State


The highest-ranked team (preseason No. 6) to lose in Week 1, the Gamecocks dropped a 35-14 debacle at Southeastern Louisiana in which they made mistakes from the start and struggled with adjustments. With a home opener against Chattanooga, the Ohio Valley Conference kingpin faces a dangerous rival, but quarterback Zerrick Cooper is talented enough to lead improvement, which includes a decrease in penalties and sacks allowed.


"One game does not identify this team and will not define the legacy of this team and luckily it was our first game, so we have another game," coach John Grass said. "Our team will respond and they will respond in a good way."


No. 13 Montana State


The Bobcats felt the heat of the 99-degree weather and the passing attack at Texas Tech, falling 45-10, but they're back in cooler Bozeman, set to host No. 12 Southeast Missouri in the STATS FCS Game of the Week. New starting quarterback Casey Bauman has to lift his play and the Bobcats have to be more physical in the run game and the front seven of their defense.


UIW


Last year's Southland Conference co-champion was 0-for-10 on third-down attempts and 0-for-3 on fourth-down conversions at UTSA, so maybe the Cardinals should have lost even bigger than 35-7. They're going to have to defend the run better moving forward because the defense is going to be on the field often with quarterback Jon Copeland and the offense having quick-strike capability. They should rebound well in their home opener against Texas Southern.


Sacred Heart


The Pioneers also are defending co-champs - in the Northeast Conference. They weren't expected to keep alive their three-game winning streak against nationally ranked opponents, but in a blowout loss at Maine, they were outscored 42-7 (the final score) and outgained 487-65 in the first half. Although Bucknell is usually strong defensively, the Pioneers should be able to get their excellent running game going with the Jordan Meachum and Julius Chestnut tag-team.


Howard


No team in Division I had a bigger loss than Howard with its 79-0 disaster at Maryland. It got so bad that first-year coach Ron Prince pulled quarterback Caylin Newton, the 2018 MEAC offensive player of the year, because the Bison offensive line couldn't keep the Maryland pass rush from swarming him. It will get easier in Week 2, but only somewhat because the Bison visit a Youngstown State squad that impressed against Samford and could be headed to a 4-0 nonconference mark.

Idaho


The second-worst defeat in Division I also was Idaho's second-biggest ever, 79-7 at Penn State. The $1.45 million paycheck was terrific, but the loss was too big for a Vandals squad that was in the FBS just two years ago. The Vandals need to regain their confidence at home against Central Washington and get into offensive rhythm behind quarterback Mason Petrino. He has a strong receiving corps, led by Jeff Cotton.

 

[CNOTES]

Huskers visit old rival Colorado
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


Here's what to watch in the Big Ten this week:


GAME OF THE WEEK


Co-No. 25 Nebraska at Colorado


The Cornhuskers are revved to play their old Big Eight/Big 12 rivals after a sluggish offensive performance against South Alabama. Colorado came into Lincoln last year and rallied in the second half to win; plus the Buffaloes knocked out QB Adrian Martinez on what the Huskers allege was a dirty play. Martinez must be better than he was last week if Nebraska is going to win a road game for the first time under second-year coach Scott Frost. The defense, which saved the Huskers last week, takes a big step up in competition. Last year, Colorado QB Steven Montez passed for 351 yards and Laviska Shenault Jr. had 10 catches for 177 yards.


BEST MATCHUP


No. 21 Syracuse at Maryland


So Maryland beat Howard 79-0 in Mike Locksley's first game as head coach (he was interim coach for six games in 2015). Now let's see how the Terrapins stack up against a ranked opponent. Despite the competition he was going against last week, it was obvious Maryland upgraded its QB situation with Virginia Tech graduate transfer Josh Jackson. Anthony McFarland Jr., a 1,000-yard rusher as a freshman last year, probably will play an expanded role this week. Syracuse, which shut out Liberty on the road, wants to see more from its offense in the leadup to a home game against top-ranked Clemson.


FACTS AND FIGURES


Coach Chris Ash of Rutgers (at No. 20 Iowa) grew up in Ottumwa, Iowa, about 65 miles from Kinnick Stadium. ... Michigan State (vs. Western Michigan) leads the nation in rushing defense after holding Tulsa to minus-73 yards on the ground, a record low for a Spartan opponent. ... No. 7 Michigan is playing Army for the first time since 1962. ... Purdue (vs. Vanderbilt) is looking to score against the Commodores for the first time after getting shut out in the previous two meetings, both in the 1940s. ... Minnesota (at Fresno State) had a drive lasting 10 minutes, 5 seconds against South Dakota State, its longest since a 10:07 possession against Northwestern in 2004. ... No. 15 Penn State (vs. Buffalo) will honor its undefeated 1994 Big Ten and Rose Bowl champion team at halftime... Michael Panix of Indiana (vs. Eastern Illinois) had 393 yards of total offense against Ball State, the most in a Hoosier freshman debut since Antwaan Randle El posted 467 against Western Illinois in 1998. ... Illinois (at UConn) will try to end a seven-game nonconference road losing streak dating to 2008. ... No. 17 Wisconsin (vs. Central Michigan) is going for its 24th straight win in a home opener.


LONG SHOT


Cincinnati, 16 1/2-point underdog at No. 5 Ohio State


Cincinnati has lost 11 straight in the series since beating the Buckeyes in 1896 and `97. Ohio State can't sleep on this one. Third-year Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell returns to Columbus, where he was born, played for the Buckeyes and was a longtime assistant and filled in as head coach in 2011. The Bearcats are picked second to Central Florida in the AAC East and beat UCLA 24-14 in their opener in a game not as close as the final score. Justin Fields and the Ohio State offense were unstoppable their first four series against Florida Atlantic. Cincy's defense provides a tougher test.


PLAYER TO WATCH

Iowa RB Mekhi Sargent


Sargent could be in line for a big day against Rutgers, which gave up 183 rushing yards to a UMass team that had one of the worst ground attacks in 2018. Sargent averaged 6.5 yards per carry and finished with 91 yards against Miami (Ohio) and also caught four balls for 65 yards.

 

[CNOTES]

Longhorns prepare for big-time matchup
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


Some things to watch in the Big 12 Conference on the second Saturday of the season:


GAME OF THE WEEK


No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas. This is the first matchup of Top 10 teams in Austin since October 2008, and is the nation's first such game this season. Just more than nine months ago, the Longhorns beat SEC runner-up Georgia in the Sugar Bowl to cap their first 10-win season since 2009, when they lost the national championship game. LSU and Texas haven't met in the regular season since 1954. They have since played in two Cotton Bowls - the Longhorns won 35-20 on New Year's Day 2003, 40 years after LSU's 13-0 win in Dallas. Tom Herman calls Texas ''his dream job,'' but there were some contract negotiations with LSU before he got hired as coach of the Longhorns in late 2016. The Tigers then removed the interim from head coach Ed Orgeron's title.


BEST MATCHUP


LSU quarterback Joe Burrow, the former transfer recruited to Ohio State by Herman, against homegrown Longhorns starter Sam Ehlinger, who has flourished in the coach's three seasons at Texas. Herman became Houston's head coach in December 2014 before Burrow signed with the Buckeyes. Burrow was at Ohio State for three years before become LSU's starter last season as a grad transfer. He had an LSU record-tying five TD passes in this year's opener. Ehlinger tied his career high with four TD passes in the Longhorns opener, and the junior from Austin has 27 TD passes with only three interceptions the last 14 games.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS


The Big 12 went 10-0 on the opening weekend, only the second time in its nine seasons as a 10-team league that every team played and won on the same weekend. ... The Big 12 is the only league that hasn't thrown an interception. Every other conference has at least seven. ... Kansas State coach Chris Klieman and Texas Tech's Matt Wells both had 35-point wins in their debuts as a Power Five coach. That was the largest winning margin ever for a Wildcats coach in his first game with the program. Only one of Tech's previous 15 head coaches got started with a more lopsided victory (a 39-point win for DeWitt Weaver in 1951). ... With new coach Les Miles, Kansas goes into its home game against Coastal Carolina looking for its first 2-0 start since 2011.


LONG SHOT


South Dakota, which opened the season with a two-touchdown home loss while giving up 510 total yards to fellow FCS team Montana, now plays at fourth-ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners have more Big 12 championships (12) than home losses (10) the last 20 years.


IMPACT PERFORMER


Oklahoma State sophomore Chuba Hubbard had 221 yards rushing in the opener at Oregon State, making him the early national leader. Hubbard was the Cowboys' primary runner the final four games last season after Justice Hill's injury, when he averaged 106 yards rushing per game.

 

[CNOTES]

Miami-UNC pivotal division matchup in Week 2 of ACC slate
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


Here are things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 2:


GAME OF THE WEEK


Miami at North Carolina. This one looks more intriguing after the Tar Heels beat South Carolina in coach Mack Brown's return to the sideline behind true freshman quarterback Sam Howell. Now they're playing a sellout home opener Saturday night against the Hurricanes in a key Coastal Division matchup, and it marks the second straight week Brown will coach against a former assistant in new Miami coach Manny Diaz. Diaz spent the 2011 and 2012 seasons at Texas but Brown fired him as defensive coordinator after the Longhorns gave up 550 yards rushing to BYU in September 2013. Diaz and the Hurricanes are trying to avoid the program's first 0-2 start since 1978 following their loss to No. 11 Florida in the opener.


BEST MATCHUP


Texas A&M's run defense against Clemson's Travis Etienne. The Aggies finished last season ranked third nationally against the run (95.2 yards). And despite entering the season with four returning defensive starters, they held Texas State to 8 yards on 15 rushes - that's 0.53 yards per attempt - in last weekend's 41-7 home win. Now they face Etienne for top-ranked and reigning national champion Tigers. Etienne, last year's ACC player of the year, ran for a career-best 205 yards with touchdowns of 90, 48 and 14 yards in the opener against Georgia Tech. Etienne did all that in just 12 carries, averaging nearly 17.1 yards per attempt.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS


Eleven teams in the Bowl Subdivision ranks didn't allow a touchdown in their opening game, with two - No. 21 Syracuse and North Carolina State - in the ACC. The Orange beat Liberty 24-0 for their first road shutout since 1991. The Wolfpack beat East Carolina 34-6, keeping the Pirates out of the end zone for the second time in nine months (N.C. State beat ECU 58-3 in December).


LONG SHOT


Old Dominion pulled one of last season's biggest surprises by beating Virginia Tech. Can the Monarchs do it again? They visit the Hokies on Saturday, nearly a year after beating a nationally-ranked Virginia Tech team 49-35 at home. ODU won just four games last year and the offensive stars of that upset (quarterback Blake LaRussa, receivers Travis Fulgham and Jonathan Duhart) are gone, leaving the Monarchs as a 26.5-point underdog to start the week.


IMPACT PLAYER


Louisville redshirt freshman Javian Hawkins has given new coach Scott Satterfield reason for optimism entering Saturday's game against Eastern Kentucky. Hawkins ran 19 times for 122 yards in the season-opening loss to No. 8 Notre Dame, making him the first Louisville freshman to run for at least 100 yards against an FBS opponent since November 2009.

 

[CNOTES]

No. 12 Aggies, No. 6 LSU have huge nonconference road tests
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


Here are some things to watch during the second week of the Southeastern Conference football season.


GAME OF THE WEEK


No. 12 Texas A&M at No. 1 Clemson: Texas A&M gave Clemson one of its toughest tests during its run to the national championship last season, yet the Aggies enter the rematch as 17-point underdogs. Texas A&M is arguably Clemson's toughest regular-season opponent and can stake its own claim as a legitimate SEC and playoff contender by pulling off the upset. Clemson won last year's game 28-26 at Texas A&M before the Tigers made the switch from Kelly Bryant to Trevor Lawrence as their starting quarterback. Both teams won convincingly in their openers last week.


TOP MATCHUP


Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger vs. LSU defense: Ehlinger ran for three touchdowns in Texas' Sugar Bowl upset of Georgia last season and now gets a chance to knock off another SEC team as the ninth-ranked Longhorns host No. 6 LSU. Ehlinger began his 2019 campaign by throwing four touchdown passes without an interception in a 49-14 rout of Louisiana Tech. LSU allowed just 98 total yards in a 55-3 blowout of Georgia Southern. Jacob Phillips recorded 10 tackles, Rashard Lawrence recorded a sack and Grant Delpit recovered a fumble in that game.


INSIDE THE NUMBERS


The SEC went 6-4 in nonconference games on Saturday and is 8-4 in such games so far this year. Last season, the SEC went 50-6 in regular-season nonconference games, and its .833 regular-season nonconference winning percentage was its best ever. ... No. 10 Auburn rallied from 15 points down to beat No. 16 Oregon last week, which marked its biggest comeback since erasing a 24-point deficit in a 28-27 victory over Alabama in 2010. ... Over his first 13 games as Tennessee's head coach, Jeremy Pruitt already has matched his loss total (eight) in five seasons as the defensive coordinator at Florida State (2013), Georgia (2014-15) and Alabama (2016-17). ... LSU quarterback Joe Burrow's five touchdown passes against Georgia Southern tied a single-game school record. All five came in the first half.


UPSET WATCH


With an inexperienced roster and a new coaching staff, West Virginia averaged less than 1 + yards per carry last week while struggling to a 20-13 victory over Football Championship Subdivision program James Madison. Even so, it's remarkable that a Big 12 program that has made 16 bowl appearances in the last 17 seasons is a two-touchdown underdog to a Missouri team coming off a loss at Wyoming.


IMPACT PERFORMER


South Carolina has perhaps the nation's toughest schedule and will be facing that challenge with freshman Ryan Hilinski as its starting quarterback. Hilinski is being pushed into action because Jake Bentley hurt his foot in a season-opening loss to North Carolina. South Carolina hasn't announced exactly how much time Bentley will miss, but the senior could be out for the rest of the season. Hilinksi was rated as the nation's No. 2 pro-style quarterback and No. 64 overall prospect in his class according to composite rankings of recruiting sites compiled by 247Sports. He makes his first career start Saturday when South Carolina hosts Football Championship Subdivision program Charleston Southern.

 

[CNOTES]

USC's Slovis eager to start at QB
September 4, 2019
By The Associated Press


LOS ANGELES (AP) Kedon Slovis enrolled early at Southern California this year as an unheralded recruit expected to provide quarterback depth in the seasons ahead.


Slovis quietly wanted a whole lot more for himself, and he wanted it to happen a whole lot quicker.


He never imagined it quite this way, however: After several months of hard work and one unfortunate injury for J.T. Daniels in the Trojans' season opener, Slovis will be the starting quarterback in his second game at USC.


''It's nothing you really expect,'' Slovis said after practice. ''But as a backup quarterback, you always have to be prepared. It's really unfortunate what happened, but you've got to be the next man up and do your best.''


The 18-year-old freshman from Scottsdale, Arizona, is the unlikely leader of the Trojans (1-0) on Saturday night when they host No. 23 Stanford (1-0). An unsung passer who has already had three quarterbacks coaches since he committed last year is inheriting the job recently held by Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Matt Barkley, Cody Kessler and Sam Darnold.


''It was definitely weird waking up Sunday morning,'' Slovis said after practice. ''But nothing changes for me. I'm still going out to practice every day, except now it's with the (starters) instead of the (backups). All of those guys are doing a great job of giving me a lot of encouragement.''


Slovis already played his first half of college ball last week after Daniels badly injured his knee while being blitzed by Fresno State 27 seconds before halftime. Slovis took over and went 6 of 8 with an interception while the Trojans largely relied on their running game and special teams to grind out a 31-23 win.


Ready or not, Slovis will face the vaunted Cardinal defense next. USC offensive coordinator Graham Harrell believes his freshman backup QB can handle the spotlight.


''He's got as good of an arm as I've seen,'' said Harrell, who once backed up Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. ''He can make any throw out there that most people can't make. We just have to do our best to get him making the right decisions every time, and if he does that, he's going to be fun to watch.''


While outsiders didn't expect big things from Slovis immediately, Slovis was on a quicker timetable after he graduated from Desert Mountain High School, where Pro Football Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was his quarterbacks coach.


After fitting into the Trojans' offense immediately during spring workouts, Slovis legitimately felt he was in competition for the starting job with Daniels, an 11-game starter last year. Slovis obviously impressed his coaches when they unexpectedly named him the backup ahead of more-experienced Jack Sears and Matt Fink.


But Slovis wasn't impressed by himself.


''That was the biggest thing being named No. 2, is regaining that confidence you lost in not being named the guy,'' Slovis said. ''But coming out here with the (starters) and getting plenty of reps, that helps.''


Like most Trojans in recent years, Slovis has already had to prove he can handle upheaval.


Slovis was recruited when Tee Martin was the Trojans' offensive coordinator and Bryan Ellis was their quarterbacks coach. Slovis made his official visit after coach Clay Helton fired Martin and Ellis left for another job, and Slovis committed to USC during the 34-day window when Kliff Kingsbury was USC's new offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.


Harrell, who took over both jobs for Kingsbury, knew almost nothing about Slovis until spring practices began at USC. The change could be hardest on Harrell, who had planned his season around Daniels' particular skill set. Although Harrell insists that the Trojans ''game-plan the same'' no matter who is taking the shotgun snaps in his Air Raid offense, Slovis and Daniels have different skills and strengths.


Even if Slovis plays well against the Cardinal, the Trojans' quarterback woes aren't over. Slovis and Fink are the only scholarship QBs on the roster with nearly the entire regular season ahead of Helton, who probably needs a bounce-back season to keep his job.


Helton claims he isn't worried about putting his future in the hands of a teenager who's going to work faster than anyone imagined.


''I can always tell a quarterback by their eyes, and when his number was called (last week), there was no fooling,'' Helton said. ''He was just like, `I'm ready for this moment.'''

 

[CNOTES]

Friday’s 6-pack


— Packers 10, Bears 3— Chicago faces its old DC Fangio next week in Denver.


— Twins 2, Red Sox 1— LF Rosario threw out tying run at plate to end the game.


— A’s 10, Angels 6— Oakland scored seven runs in 7th inning.


— Cubs 10, Brewers 5— Zobrist reached base five times in his 2nd game since May.


— Rays 6, Blue Jays 4— Attendance at the Trop for contending Rays: 5,962


— Astros 11, Mariners 9 (13)— Brantley hit a walk-off homer. Seattle led 5-0 in first inning but couldn’t get the win.


Tweet of the Day
“I wouldn’t take Mike Mayock to serious either for the simple fact he had the nerves to rank 5 guys higher then me coming out the draft. And we all know how that worked out………”
Saints’ WR Mike Thomas


Friday’s quiz
Where did Mitchell Trubisky play his college football?


Thursday’s quiz
Adrian Peterson is the only active NFL player who has been the NFL MVP but isn’t a QB.


Wednesday’s quiz
Antonio Brown played his college football at Central Michigan.


*******************


Friday’s extra List of 13: Quick NFL knowledge…….


13) Buffalo Bills made the playoffs in 2017, for the first time since 1999; then they cut that year’s QB, Tyrod Taylor, and slumped to 6-10 last year. Taylor is now Philip Rivers’ backup with the Chargers.


12) Nick Foles has never started more than 11 games in an NFL season.


11) In five years coaching the Redskins, Jay Gruden is 35-44-1, 0-1 in playoffs; since 2006, Washington is 0-3 in playoff games- their last playoff win was under Joe Gibbs, in ’05.


10) John Harbaugh with the Ravens:
— First five years: 54-26, 9-4 playoffs
— Last six years: 49-47, 1-2 playoffs


9) Last eight years, Tennessee Titans are 5-17-2 ATS as an underdog of 3 or fewer points.


8) Since 2010, Dallas Cowboys are 17-34-1 ATS as a home favorite. Over last decade, the underdog is 90-63-4 (58.8%) in Cowboy games.


7) Over last 20 years, Detroit Lions are 0-4 in playoff games; the last four years, Detroit is 4-10 ATS as a home underdog.


6) Cleveland Browns are 1-18-1 SU in Week 1 games, 0-5 ATS when favored; they tied the Steelers LY (+3.5).


5) Houston Texans won last four season openers, scoring 30+ points in all four games.


4) Since 2015, Denver Broncos are 5-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.


3) Last six years, Atlanta Falcons are 14-24 ATS as a home favorite.


2) Since 2012, Seattle Seahawks are 6-0 ATS as home underdogs; Seattle made playoffs six of last seven years, and went 9-7 the other year.


1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl after the 2002 season; they’re 0-2 in playoff games since then, and are 55-105 since Jon Gruden left town, with no playoff appearances

 

[CNOTES]

Marshall at Boise State
September 3, 2019
By Matt Blunt


Marshall at Boise State
Venue/Location: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID
Time/TV: Friday, Sept. 6, 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Boise State -11, Total 55


After last week had a handful of great games on Friday, this week there are just two games that pit FBS programs against one another, and it's the later of the two out on the Smurf Turf that I'll be focusing on here.


Last week's piece ended up playing out alright, as Rutgers is going into Iowa this week off a win of 20+ over Massachusetts, staying away from Oklahoma State wasn't the best idea as they brought out their offense early and often against a bad Oregon State team, while the Best Bet on the 'over' in the Colorado-Colorado State showdown cashed with relative ease.


It was a nice start to a season of Friday Showcase breakdowns, and hopefully this week brings more rewards to all those inclined to join.


Marshall and Boise State both come into this game with 1-0 SU records, but while Marshall beat up on FCS Virginia Military (56-17), Boise State was on the road in Tallahassee, engineering a great 2nd half comeback to beat Florida State. The Broncos outscored FSU 17-0 in the final 30 minutes, as a combination of great in-game adjustments and a gassed FSU team who appeared to have shot their full shot in the opening 30 minutes enabled Boise State to comeback. Given that it was true freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier that orchestrated that comeback for the Broncos, this “rebuilding” year for Boise State may have turned into a “contending” year after just a single game.


But just like we will see next week when Week 2 of the NFL season arrives, Week 2 in college football is known for overreactions as well. Excitement for the season means football consumption is at an all-time high in Week 1 in terms of sheer volume of games consumed (bettors trying to get a handle on teams across the country), and there are always some snap judgements made after good/bad Week 1 performances. Keep that in mind as you navigate your way through the entire college football betting board this week, but Boise State contending for a Mountain West title this year with their youthful roster is still not something I'm sold on yet. That being said, Boise State is still Boise State, and you've got to give them the benefit of the doubt in terms of recruiting quality talent and coaching them up once they arrive on campus.


But it's that same positive, potential overreaction on the Broncos win that has seen early money for this game push the number Marshall's way after opening up at -12. An early week move like that is very understandable on multiple levels, as the perception of how good Boise State is this year is definitely inflated a touch after the Florida State win, and laying double digits with a freshman QB in his first career home start against FBS competition is still a big ask. Marshall's a team that's still projected to be the program that does very well in Conference USA this season, and relies on a great returning O-line to spark a highly explosive running game.


Yet, at the same time, Marshall was not challenged in any aspect of football in its Week 1 win over VMI, and taking that initial step up for a team can bring some issues. For one, it's a road game on a short week, meaning that travel cuts into prep time on the field in that regard for Marshall, and the home field advantage that the Smurf Turf brings Boise State is one of the better ones in the land.


There will likely be no 6.1 yards per rush for Marshall this week like they had a week ago, and their 55% 3rd down conversion rate on offense (6-for-11) should take a hit as well. Boise's State's comeback against FSU was fueled by the ability of their defense to get off the field on 3rd down – Florida State was 1-for-12 on 3rd down in the game – and the offense's ability to stay on the field on 3rd down (10-for-19) against what should be a quality program. Remember, Marshall went 55% on 3rd down against VMI, Boise State nearly did the same (53%) against Florida State. The opening number of 12 points was warranted and may even end back up there by the time kickoff arrives.


So while it's still fine to take a long-term cautious approach with Boise State this year – there will be some dud games for the freshman QB – I do believe backing them this week is the right move. Going against the early line move does bring some minor concerns, but you can't underestimate (or perhaps quantify) the confidence someone like Hank Bachmeier gained from that comeback win at FSU last week, and hopefully that rolls over into Friday's game as well.


With Marshall's defense still having a big question mark in terms of their ability to stop the run this year, Boise State should be able to use the running game – RB Robert Mahone had 142 yards rushing on 24 attempts vs FSU (2 TDs) – to open up the pass, because Marshall's secondary enters the year as the strength of the unit and one that's probably eager to get a crack at Bachmeier. But if they are forced to come down into the box to help stop the run – which I believe they will be – things can really start to open up for Bachmeier and Boise's attack can get on a roll from there.


Playing under the lights on the Smurf Turf typically is rough for visiting teams as it is, and with Marshall as a program on a 0-7 ATS run after allowing fewer than 20 points, and 3-7 ATS when coming off a win of 20+ points, the initial move on them makes sense, but it won't be the one that gets bettors to the payout window.


Best Bet: Boise State -10.5


Best Bet YTD Record: 1-0 ATS

 

[CNOTES]

Boise at home and ready for Marshall
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


For the second straight week, Hank Bachmeier gets a chance to make a first impression.


It will be hard for Boise State's freshman quarterback to top what he did in the season opener.


''You thought after having a four-year starter at quarterback there would be a little bit of a drop-off there,'' Marshall coach Doc Holliday said. ''But this kid, he didn't look like a freshman out there. He took some shots in that Florida State game, stood right in there and delivered the ball.''


Bachmeier and the 24th-ranked Broncos play their first game on the blue turf Friday night when they host Marshall, one of the preseason favorites in Conference USA. While it's an intriguing matchup of two Group of Five teams, all eyes will be on Bachmeier.


Bachmeier helped create the excitement with his performance last week in Boise State's 36-31 comeback win over Florida State. Down by 18 in the second quarter, the Broncos (1-0) outscored Florida State 23-0 the rest of the way, with Bachmeier turning in a sterling performance. He completed 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards and a touchdown. It was the best passing debut by a Boise State quarterback since the school went to the FBS level in 1996 and the 407 yards nearly cracked the top 10 performances all time in school history.


The 18-point comeback was the biggest by Boise State against a Power Five opponent since overcoming a 14-0 hole to rout Oregon State 42-14 in 2006.


''Hank showed toughness in there and that's part of it. You don't want your quarterback to get hit but at times to stand in there and deliver a ball you've got to do that sometimes,'' Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said. ''Just the overall game, his poise, composure and staying in it. As the game was not going our way early on I think guys mentally can get themselves out of it and it's hard to get refocused in three and a half hours and get yourself back on track and he never seemed to lose that throughout the game.''


Marshall (1-0) opened with a 56-17 thumping of VMI. Sophomore Isaiah Green threw a career-high four touchdowns while the Thundering Herd compiled 620 yards of offense, including 280 on the ground. Holliday is hoping his team understands the challenge will be far different out west.


''It's a challenge we're looking forward to. I know when you're in this business as a coach or as a player, these are the kind of games that you want to go play,'' Holliday said. ''I talk to these kids all the time because you play this great game, you get opportunities a lot of people don't get. This is one of them.''


Other things to watch as the Broncos and Thundering Herd meet for just the second time:


CRACKING 100


Boise State running back Robert Mahone rushed for 142 yards and two touchdowns against Florida State, and averaged nearly 6 yards per carry. It's a pretty good start for a program trying to continue a 10-year streak of having a 1,000-yard rusher. He'll be challenged by a Marshall defense that has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the past 15 games. Marshall was one of just four teams that didn't allow a 100-yard rusher last season, along with Clemson, Southern Miss and Northern Illinois.


PLENTY OF TARGETS


Eleven different players caught passes for Marshall against VMI, including five different players with a TD catch. Corey Gammage led the Herd with five catches for 82 yards, while Tavin Richardson and Armani Levias had three catches each.


NO HANGOVER


One of Harsin's big concerns going into Week 2 was that his younger players would be affected by the attention they got after the win over Florida State.


''There was a lot of hype from this last game and there can be a major hangover because of that,'' he said. ''Everybody is on their phone, they want to see how many times their name gets retweeted and they want to see the pictures that Boise State football puts out there.''


Maybe he shouldn't be as concerned as the Broncos have won 17 straight home openers.


WE MEET AGAIN


It's been a long time since the only previous meeting between the schools. Marshall and Boise State met in the 1994 Division I-AA (now FCS) national semifinals. The Broncos pulled out a 28-24 win at home and faced Youngstown State in the national title game played on Marshall's home field. The Broncos fell in the title game 28-14.


*********************************************


Wake Forest looks to improve defense
September 5, 2019
By The Associated Press


HOUSTON (AP) Wake Forest got a close win over Utah State in the season opener. Coach Dave Clawson admits there's still plenty the Demon Deacons need to improve, especially on defense.


The defense picked off three passes but gave up 596 yards, including 416 yards passing, in the 38-35 win. The Demon Deacons (1-0) will have a quick turnaround to fix those issues, traveling to Houston to play Rice (0-1) on Friday night.


''We gave up 13 plays for 393 yards and the rest were a little over 200,'' Clawson said. ''We didn't tackle well. We had poor angles. We had some communication breakdowns in the back end. Those are things that we have to coach, correct and get better at.''


Rice will present a different challenge for the Wake Forest defense after rushing for 181 yards and throwing for just 62 yards last week in a 14-7 loss at Army.


''It is completely opposite to what we do and what we have seen,'' Clawson said. ''They use multiple personnel groups and use groupings with two, three, even four tight ends. It is hard to prepare for. They stretch you out.''


On offense, Wake Forest threw for 401 yards. The Demon Deacons averaged 3.1 yards per carry, finishing with 178 yards rushing on 58 carries and a fumble.


''I think anytime something doesn't go well you have to ask, `Why didn't it go well? Was it what we're doing, how we're doing it, who's doing it?''' Clawson said. ''It's always a combination of those three things. So I think at times we were a little bit too robotic with our snap count that they were able to predict the quarterbacks sneak, they were off the ball before we were.''


More things to know about the Wake Forest-Rice game:


FINISHING DRIVES


Rice had trouble finishing drives in the opener against Army, going 0 for 1 in the red zone, 3 for 11 on third downs and 0 for 1 on fourth down.


''It's very simple,'' said Rice coach Mike Bloomgren. ''I love averaging six yards a carry. I love protecting the football and with the way our defense is playing, I think it's a formula that can win a lot of games. But we need a couple of more points on the scoreboard. That's the bottom line.''


SHORT-YARDAGE WOES


Wake Forest needs to perform better in short-yardage situations. The Demon Deacons were stopped on fourth downs twice inside the Utah State 5, and they settled for a field goal after another drive stalled inside the 10.


''They were physical and they were able to tighten things up and get the backfield and at times we just didn't execute well,'' Clawson said.


SECONDARY TEST


Rice's defensive line saw a lot of action against Army, holding the Black Knights to 231 yards rushing, but the secondary had a rather light night as Army finished 3 of 8 passing for 53 yards. Bloomgren knows that will be different against Wake Forest. Quarterback Jamie Newman finished 34 of 47 for 401 yards and three touchdowns against Utah State.


''This is going to be a tempo,'' Bloomgren said. ''Their quarterback threw for over 400 yards the other night. He's playing at a really high level.''

 

[indiana]

C/Note......BOL with your action this week buddy......have a solid season.........indy

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks indy............cheersgif