Cnotes 2018 nfl thread thru the superbowl- trends-news-picks+more !

[Udog]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



WEATHER WARMING UP?

The weather forecast might be warming up for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. Earlier in the week, we were hearing about an “Arctic blast” with temperatures heading towards zero or below. It’s still going to be very cold, but more recent forecasts are showing temperatures in the mid-20s and a “feels-like” temperature of about 19-20.

This change in forecast makes a difference if you believe in historical numbers. Here’s what we mentioned earlier in the week about Over/Under trends in cold weather:

Since 2003, the Over is actually cashing at 58.8 percent (114-80-2) in all games (regular season and playoffs) played in temperatures 30 degrees or lower. In the playoffs alone, that percentage drops to 52.3 percent (23-21-1) at 30 degrees or less but then spikes to 62.5 percent (10-6-1) in games played in 20 degrees or less.

It also must be noted that, since 2003, only once has there been a postseason game played in sub-30-degree temperature with a closing total of 55.5 or higher and it went Under (New Orleans at Philadelphia, Jan. 4, 2014, closing total 55.5, 50 total points scored). If we drop the closing total to 50, there have been seven such games since 2003 and the Under has cashed in five of them — including last week’s Chiefs-Colts game.

There are a lot of different ways to look at the weather and how it affects totals, but there’s one thing to keep in mind for Sunday: Weather forecasts do (and will) change so it’s probably best to wait before making your Over/Under bet for this one. Keep monitoring Covers’ weather page up until kick off and use the above data to make an informed decision on whether you’re going Over or Under.


WARE PRACTICES IN FULL

Kansas City running back Spencer Ware finally got in a full practice session on Thursday, pretty much guaranteeing that he’ll suit up for Sunday’s AFC title game. Ware hasn’t played since Week 14 and in his place, Damien Williams has taken the lead-back role and run with it (literally). Ware will be nothing more than change-of-pace back on Sunday.

Williams is the man to back or own in DFS this weekend as he’s in a great spot to put up numbers. Andy Reid has shown has that he likes to attack New England with dual-threat running backs as Kareem Hunt totaled 185 and 246 yards from scrimmage and four total touchdowns the last two times the Chiefs played the Pats. Williams has posted 123, 140, and 154 combined rushing and receiving yards in three of his last four games and in that fourth game he played just 28 snaps in Week 17. Williams is in line to have a monster game and we’re backing the Over 95.5 for Williams’ combined rushing and receiving totals.


BACKING BREES (AGAIN)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We got a winner by backing Drew Brees to go Over 286.5 passing yards last week and we’re going right back to the well for Sunday's NFC Championship game. Brees has been ridiculous at home this season, averaging 321.6 passing yards with a 76.3 percent completion rate — and that includes his 346-yard performance against the Rams in Week 9. Historically, Brees in the Superdome in the playoffs is also a deadly combo as he’s undefeated and has thrown for 300-plus yards in three straight.

The Rams ranked ninth in passing DVOA this season and gave up 236.2 passing yards per game (14th fewest in the league) but were vulnerable to giving some big passing games late in the season. Dak Prescott went well above his season average last week by throwing for 266 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA), while Nick Mullens went for 282 yards on 8.5 YPA in Week 17 and Nick Foles threw for 270 yards on 8.7 YPA in Week 15.

Brees averaged 9.5 YPA at home during the regular season and passed for 7.9 YPA last week. Based on the Rams’ recent games and Brees’ success at home, we’re assuming he can average at least 8.8 YPA on Sunday. Brees’ total is set at 299.5 passing yards, meaning he’ll need 35 attempts to go Over — and he had 35-plus pass attempts in five of his eight home games so far this season (including the playoffs). We’re backing the Over 299.5 for Brees’ passing yards total.


FIELD-GOAL FUN!

Let’s talk kickers! The NFC Championship features two of the better field-goal kickers in the game in L.A.’s Greg Zuerlein and New Orleans’ Wil Lutz. Zuerlein finished 16th in field-goal percentage in the regular season at 87.1, but he was 4 of 6 from 40-49 yards and 4 of 6 from 50-plus yards this season, with a long of 56. Lutz was more accurate, making 28 of 30 field goals on the season (93.3 percent) and was an impressive 11 of 12 from 40-49 yards and 2 of 3 from 50-plus yards, with a long of 54.

So far in the postseason, Zuerlein is 3 of 4 on all field goals, 1 of 1 from 40-49 yards, and 0 for 1 from 50-plus; Lutz is 2 of 3 overall, 1 for 1 from 40-49, and 0 for 1 from 50-plus. Kicking conditions will be perfect for these two on Sunday as the game is being played indoors and the prop for longest field goal made is set at a very tempting 44.5 yards. We’re backing the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

Chiefs aim to end 49-year SB drought
January 17, 2019
By The Associated Press


KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) The even-keeled executive with the crisp suit and winning smile stood inside the mostly empty Kansas City Chiefs locker room, his team having just won a home playoff game for the first time in 25 years.


He talked about how much it meant to their long-suffering fans. Spoke glowingly about coach Andy Reid, and his young superstar quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. He praised the rest of a team that captured its third straight AFC West title before knocking off the Colts in the playoffs.


It wasn't until Clark Hunt was asked about winning the AFC title game that he became emotional.


You see, the Chiefs were founded by his father, the late Lamar Hunt, who along with seven others in what would be called ''The Foolish Club'' founded the AFL.


The personable Texas businessman's importance to establishing the modern NFL was honored in 1984, when the league renamed the silver trophy awarded to the winner of the AFC championship game the Lamar Hunt Trophy.


So it's easy to understand why his son, now the team's chairman and the most visible face of the ownership family, would have tears in the corners of his eyes at the thought of holding it for the first time with a win over the New England Patriots on Sunday night.


''It's been a long time coming,'' Clark Hunt said. ''Since Andy came here we've had a lot of shots, but we finally have a chance to win the AFC championship, and to do it at home is so special for us.''


The Chiefs have never played an AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. They won at Buffalo to reach the first Super Bowl, and in Oakland on their way to their lone Super Bowl triumph in 1970.


They lost their only other appearance in Buffalo in January 1994.


Indeed, the opportunity to return to the NFL's biggest stage for the first time in 49 years has been a long time coming. The Chiefs lost eight consecutive postseason games during one maddening stretch, and squandered the No. 1 seed along the way. They had great individual players - Tony Gonzalez, Priest Holmes, Joe Montana - yet never managed to hoist the AFC championship trophy.


Former coach Dick Vermeil, who took the Eagles to the Super Bowl and won it with the Rams, said this week that ''my biggest regret'' was failing to deliver it during his five seasons in Kansas City.


''It would be great. I mean, when your name is on it, that's a pretty big thing,'' said current Chiefs coach Andy Reid, who still remembers meeting Lamar Hunt during an ownership meeting years ago.


Hunt died in December 2006 at the age of 74.


''To have the opportunity to work with his kids and Clark in particular, I understand the importance of that,'' Reid said. ''Not that he has to tell me. He doesn't have to say anything.''


In fact, the Chiefs make sure everybody knows the importance.


''One of the awesome things we do with our player development team is that they take us through the whole history,'' Mahomes said. ''We come over to the museum that we have in the stadium and they take us through how he made the AFL, pretty much from scratch, and had this vision for what is now the AFC and combined it with the NFL and made this beautiful league.


''It truly is special for someone like that who has created your franchise,'' Mahomes added. ''You want to do whatever you can to bring honor to him and that family.''


The Patriots are no strangers to hoisting the Lamar Hunt Trophy, of course. They are playing for it for the eighth consecutive season, and the coach-quarterback combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have succeeded in hoisting it eight times since their first real season together in 2001.


But despite a perennial juggernaut standing in the way, there is a profound sense of confidence that surrounds the Chiefs these days, an unabashed optimism that can be felt all around town.


Fountains are colored red - at least, those that haven't frozen - and Chiefs banners hang off many of the city's iconic buildings. Fans are streaming into Charlie Hustle, a local vintage clothing store, for their ''Arrowhead Collection'' of shirts. Those who aren't making a buck off the Chiefs' playoff ride are spending a buck to support them, or in many cases several hundred bucks.


The stars are quite literally aligning: There is a ''super blood wolf moon'' due Sunday night, where the sun, Earth and moon line up and the moon is cast in a rusty (Chiefs-like) red tint.


The fan fever is not unlike the way the city embraced the Royals when they made back-to-back World Series appearances. And when they won the 2015 championship, some 800,000 turned out for the parade.


Imagine how many would show up if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl.


''It means a lot just to make it to this point,'' said Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston, one of the team's elder statesmen. I've never had this opportunity, so I think it will means a lot to me, to (the Hunt family) and to the city.''


Yes, the Hunt family.


Clark Hunt knows better than to plan for parades before games are won. The Chiefs have come up short many times, and the sting of those disappointments still lingers after all these years. Yet the franchise is also on the precipice of something great, a potential salve to make that pain go away.


''It's very special, obviously, for our entire family,'' Hunt said. ''It's one of the goals that I always put out for the players at the beginning of the year. First thing we want to do is win that Lamar Hunt Trophy. Then we want to go to the Super Bowl and win that Lombardi Trophy.''

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

— Last five years, home team is 10-0 SU in this round (all #1 seeds).
— Last eight times #1-2 seeds met in this round, underdogs were 5-2-1 vs spread.

Rams @ Saints— Rams lost here 45-35 back in Week 9; NO led 35-17 at half, Rams came back to tie game, but fell short, in game that Talib (leg injury) missed- he is back now. Home side won last six series games; Rams lost last three trips to Superdome- their last win here was in ’07. Rams ran ball for 269-155-273 yards in last three games overall, as Gurley/Anderson became a prolific running combo. LA is 6-2 SU on road this year, 13-3 in two years under McVay. Saints outgained Philly 420-250 LW after falling behind 14-0 early; NO is 14-3 this year, with two of losses at home, but Brees (rest) sat out Week 17 loss. Last 11 years, underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread in NFC title games. Rams are 2-1 on artificial turf this year, scoring 33-35-30 points.

Patriots @ Chiefs— New England is in its 8th straight AFC title game, going 4-3 in previous seven; Patriots are 0-3 in last three AFC title games on road- their last road win in an AFC title game was 14 years ago. KC lost 43-40 in Foxboro back in Week 6; NE outgained Chiefs 500-446. Teams split last four series games; Chiefs won 42-27 in Foxboro LY. This is first AFC title game in Arrowhead’s 47-year history. NE lost its last two visits to to KC, last of which was in ’14; Pats’ last win here was in ’04. Chiefs are first team ever to score 26+ points in every game; they’re 8-1 at home, 5-4 vs spread as home favorites. This is first time in Brady’s last 70 games that Patriots are an underdog; they’re 3-5 SU on road this season, winning at Bills-Bears-Jets.




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships


LA Rams @ New Orleans

Game 311-312
January 20, 2019 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
138.331
New Orleans
134.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+3 1/2); Under

New England @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 20, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.098
Kansas City
146.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
55
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s 6-pack


More over/under baseball totals for 2019:


74.5— Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox


76.5— Toronto Blue Jays


77— Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds


77.5— San Diego Padres


78.5— Pittsburgh Pirates


82— Colorado Rockies

Tweet of the Day
“I’m not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I’m not dumb, and I also know that I’m not blonde.”
Dolly Parton, whose birthday was Saturday

Sunday’s quiz
Jim Morris was a science teacher in Texas who tried out for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and pitched in 21 major league games at age 35. What fine actor played Morris in the movie, The Rookie?


Saturday’s quiz
Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich is a graduate of the Air Force Academy.


Friday’s quiz
Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III, the AFL’s first win in a Super Bowl.




*****************************


Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday


13) Kentucky 82, Auburn 80— Wildcats led this game 58-41 with 17:00 left; Auburn took the lead 80-79 with 0:32 left, but Kentucky scored with 0:24 left, then Auburn never got the ball to their best player on their last possession and that was that.


Auburn alum Charles Barkley was on ESPN for a segment of this game and he ripped the current NBA product, which I’m sure didn’t thrill his bosses at Turner Broadcasting very much. Barkley complained about the amount of 3-pointers being taken by NBA teams.


It is getting harder to listen to Dick Vitale on the air; he launched into a rant every time the refs went for a replay review. Sounded like he had a plane to catch after the game.


12) Duke 72, Virginia 70— Cavaliers hit a jumper at the buzzer for the back-door cover, but they lose to a Duke team playing without their point guard.


Mike Krzyzewski is only college basketball coach that doesn’t do halftime interviews, yet his son-in-law (Chris Spatola) works for ESPN. Whats up with that? Is it that hard to answer two softball ?’s on way to locker room?


11) Are ESPN’s announcers required to mention Zion Williamson EVERY TIME they promo a Duke game, because they do mention his name EVERY TIME they read a Duke promo. You would think if it wasn’t mandated someone wouldn’t do it.


10) James Nunnally is a sub for the Houston Rockets; he is 28 years old, played four years at Cal-Santa Barbara. Here are the professional teams he’s played for:


2012: Kavala, in Greece
2012-14: Bakersfield Jam in the D-League
2014: Texas Legends in the D-League
2014: Hawks, 76ers in the NBA
2014: Santurce in Puerto Rico
2014: Estudiantes in Spain
2014-15: Maccabi Ashdod in Israel
2015-16: Sidigas Avellino in Italy
2016-18: Fenerbahce in Turkey
2018-19: Timberwolves, Rockets in the NBA


Imagine the book this guy could write????


9) Rockets 138, Lakers 134 OT— ESPN had quite a day; big college games at Auburn, Duke were both decided by a hoop, then this game on ABC went OT. James Harden scored 48 points for the Rockets, which these days seems commonplace.


8) Drexel 73, James Madison 68— Dukes led this game 22-4 early, but went 3-12 on foul line and were behind by halftime. Drexel outscored JMU 18-3 on the foul line.


7) Upsets of the Day:
— Elon (+12.5) 76, Wm & Mary 71
— DePaul (+9) 97, Seton Hall 93
— Penn (+9) 77, Temple 70
— Charlotte (+7.5) 55, Louisiana Tech 40— Tech was 1-23 on the arc.
— Towson State (+7) 64, Delaware 63— Towson was down 15 at the half.
— Eastern Illinois (+6.5) 85, Austin Peay 83
— West Virginia (+5.5) 65, Kansas 64
— Niagara (+5.5) 75, Quinnipiac 72
— Missouri (+5.5) 66, Texas A&M 43


6) One college that lost out big-time with all the conference changes a few years ago was UConn, whose sports program has a $40M shortfall this year. Huskies’ terrible football team lost $8.7M, their basketball team $5M and women’s basketball team lost $3M.


Big 14 screwed up (in my opinion) when they took Rutgers over UConn, but they care more about football than hoops. Would the Huskies be better off as an independent in football, and a Big East member in basketball?


5) Cal-Irvine 74, Cal State-Northridge 68— Anteaters were down 47-31 at the half, but rallied to avoid this road upset. Mark Gottfried is doing a nice job rebuilding the Northridge program.


4) Nets 145, Rockets 142 OT— This game was Wednesday but it was odd; here is a breakdown of Houston’s shot selection in that game:


3-point shots: 23-70, 32.9%, 69 points
2-point shots: 22-35, 62.9%, 44 points
foul shots: 29-34, 85.3%, 29 points.


Rockets took twice as many 3-point shots as 2-point shots, but they also lost. Gerald Green played 41:00 in this game, was 5-15 from floor, all 3-point shots.


3) When James Harden scored 115 points in consecutive games during the week, none of the 33 baskets he scored in those games were assisted. Lot of holding the ball, 1-on-1 play. Last time Harden scored less than 30 points in a game was December 11, vs Portland. Rockets are 14-5 in 19 games since that night.


2) This made me feel old; there is a high school game on ESPNU Monday, with Sierra Canyon HS in the LA area; Kenyon Martin Jr is a senior on that team. It seems like 2 or 3 years ago that Martin was playing ball at Cincinnati, and then in the NBA. Good luck to the young man.


1) ESPN’s Joe Lunardi does his Bracketology thing for the NCAA tournament every day; he came up with teams from these conferences: Big 14 (10), ACC (8), Big X (7), SEC (6), Big East (5), American (4), A-14 (2), Pac-12 (2).


All the other leagues, the conference tournament will be the deciding factor, unless Nevada loses in the Mountain West, then they would get two teams.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Title Games
January 18, 2019
By Micah Roberts


It's championship weekend and both home teams are floating on the most key number in the NFL which has bookmakers reluctant to move off it. It's a pair 3's in Sunday's NFC and AFC Championship games.


Cash talks, but books don't want to be put in a situation where they can get sided or middled by moving off of -3. But at the same time, they want to get to the right number as soon as possible because 75 percent of the volume is still to come Friday night through Sunday. With the handle being so much larger than previous games this season, being wrong on a move can be extremely costly. But staying on a number too long also has it's consequences. It's a double-edged sword and it can be quite a thrilling tightrope walk for the bookmaker when in the trenches.


The Saints started out as 3.5-point home favorites against the Rams in the NFC and have slowly been bet down to -3 (-120) at several bet shops. The Chiefs started out as 3-point home favorites against the Patriots in the AFC and a few books like Wynn, MGM and Caesars have inched upward to -3 (-120).


The sports book I like to monitor line movement in these big games the most is at the South Point because they use exclusively flat numbers. They never move the juice so everything is always -110 which usually has them having the best number in town when dealing with -3. They've already bounced on and off of Saints -3 to -3.5 on two separate occasions. They've been at -3 since Wednesday.


The South Point has yet to move the Chiefs off -3, but they have been dropping the total often from an opener of 59.5 on Sunday down to 55.5 on Wednesday. Their best scenario?


"Neither game landing 3 for sure," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews. "We're probably going to need the Over in the Kansas City game."


There was an initial weather report Sunday that suggested Sunday's game in Kansas City could have artic-like conditions with a wind chill below zero degrees. But as of Friday, the forecast called for 31 degrees and winds at 9 mph. It's still cold, but maybe not the type of chill that inspired such a rush to bet the Under.


When they met in Week 6 in Foxborough, the Patriots won 43-40 as 3.5-point favorites. It was the Chiefs' first loss of the season. The total in that game was 59.5.


The Chiefs only allowing 17.4 ppg at home this season is something to think about before wagering, as is Bill Belichick game planning for a playoff game. It's also important to note that the Patriots only won three of eight road games. The last two losses came at Pittsburgh and at Miami. They also had bad losses early in the season at Jacksonville, at Detroit and then Week 10 at Tennessee which was a 34-10 beat down.


"In the AFC, sharps are on the Chiefs and the public is either laying -3 or taking the Patriots on the money-line," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal who has the Patriots getting +145 on the money-line."


It sounds like CG Tech books might like a 2-point Chiefs win.


"It's hard to tell," said Simbal regarding their best scenario as of Friday. "Our futures are good on everyone and we're pretty even in both games. We will definitely need to keep the Rams game Under."


CG Tech books have the Rams-Saints total set at 57 but haven't moved much despite the risk.


William Hill sports books have the Rams getting 56 percent of the tickets written taking +3.5 and +3, but 51 percent of the cash is on the Saints. It's the same type of divide on the money-line as well with 74 percent of the tickets written taking the Rams and +160 while 82 percent of the actual cash is on the Saints -180. The total Over 57 is the preferred play as well.


William Hill has 54 percent of the tickets written and cash wagered on the Chiefs laying -3. On the money-line, 71 percent of the tickets are on the Patriots taking +135 while 53 percent of the cash is on the Chiefs -155. They're all over the Under as well in cash and tickets written.


Station Casinos sports books will be rooting for Saints to the Under and Patriots to the Over.


Best guess where the lines in each game go? I would guess the Chiefs get to -3.5 while the Saints stay at -3.


Also, there's a larger than usual assortment of props this week signifying the importance of each game while also getting in some practice for setting up over 300 Super Bowl props next week.