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[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 1
August 29, 2018
By Joe Williams

2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Oklahoma 12-2 9-1 8-6 8-6
Texas Christian 11-3 7-3 6-8 4-10
Oklahoma State 10-3 6-3 7-6 9-4
Texas 7-6 5-4 8-4-1 3-10
West Virginia 7-6 5-4 5-7-1 7-5-1
Kansas State 8-5 5-4 6-6-1 6-7
Iowa State 8-5 5-4 11-1-1 4-9
Texas Tech 6-7 3-6 7-6 5-8
Baylor 1-11 1-8 5-7 5-7
Kansas 1-11 0-9 4-8 7-5




Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma (FOX, 12:00 p.m.)


The Lane Train rolls into Norman looking to shock the world and put FAU further on the map. While hope might spring eternal in Boca Raton, Fla., as the team is favored to win Conference USA for a second consecutive season while doing it with a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in RB Devin Singletary, the Sooners are not North Texas. Or Akron. Vegas understands it all, as Oklahoma is favored by three touchdowns. FAU also enters this game with only one win in school history against a Power 5 team, and that came back on Sept. 15, 2007 in a victory against Minnesota in front of 10,759 fans in what is now Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. While the Owls are 26-12 ATS in their past 38 road games, they're 0-8 ATS in the past eight against Big 12 clubs. Oklahoma has covered four of their past five out of conference, 11-2 ATS in the past 13 at home and 5-2 ATS in their past seven vs. C-USA schools. As far as the total, the over is 4-1 in FAU's past five on the road, but 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts. The over is 5-2 in Oklahoma's past seven outside of the Big 12.


Texas vs. Maryland at Landover, Md. (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)


Texas and Maryland met in Austin last season and the Terrapins stunned the Longhorns by a 51-41 count, and there was doom and gloom surrounding head coahc Tom Herman for the first month of the season before getting on track. After failing to cover, or even win, as 18-point favorites, Texas rattled off a 6-0-1 ATS run. Maryland won their first two games of the season, averaging 57.0 points per game (PPG). It was all downhill from there, as they ended up 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS. Texas has fared well in neutral-site battles, going 4-0 ATS in their past four. However, while they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference games, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven in September, the Longhorns are a dismal 0-4 ATS in their past four against the Big Ten. The Terps have managed a poor 1-4 ATS mark across the past five neutral-site battles, and they finished 2-6 ATS in the final eight of 2017. The under is 12-1 in the past 13 games on grass for Texas, and 4-1 in their past five neutral-site affairs, but the over is 4-0 in Maryland's past four neutral-site contests and 7-2 in their final nine of 2017.

Mississippi vs. Texas Tech at Houston, Tex. (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)


In another neutral-site battle, it's SEC vs. Big 12 at NRG Stadium in Houston. Ole Miss opened as a one-point favorite, but Texas Tech is now up to being a favorite by 2 1/2 points as of Wednesday morning. The Rebels haven't had a lot of success in recent seasons outside of the conference, going 1-4 ATS in the past five. However, the Rebels are an impressive 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 neutral-site battles. The Red Raiders have posted a 4-1 ATS mark in their past five non-conference affairs, while posting a 20-6-1 ATS mark in their past 27 battles in the month of September. The under has also hit in four of the past five for the Rebels on a neutral-site field, but the over is 5-1 in their past six non-conference battles. The over has cashed in 16 of the past 21 neutral-site games for Texas Tech while going 20-9 in the past 29 outside of the Big 12.


Tennessee vs. West Virginia at Charlotte, N.C. (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)


The Volunteers and Mountaineers will tangle at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, and it will be a mixed crowd. Knoxville is a rather quick jaunt on I-40 and down I-77, while Morgantown is just a handful of hours to the north via I-79 and I-77, and the 600 toll booths on the West Virginia Turnpike. There has been a lot of gamesmanship by the head coaches as far as the depth chart is concerned heading into this game. Head coach Dana Holgorsen looks to build on a seven-win campaign against a Vols squad which lost a school-record eight games in 2017. There is hope with QB Jarrett Guarantano, who went 4-2 as a started down the stretch. Speaking of QBs, Will Grier is an early Heisman hopeful for Holgorsen's bunch, and the Mountaineers have four offensive line starters back to protect him. The good news for Tennessee is that they have won nine consecutive season openers. The bad news is they are 6-34 across their past 40 against ranked teams since the start of the 2010 season. Tennessee enters with a 6-1 ATS mark over their past seven neutral-site battles, while West Virginia is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 neutral-site tilts and 2-5 ATS in the past seven out of conference.

Other Games
Missouri State at Oklahoma State (Thu. - FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)
Southern at Texas Christian (No national TV - 12:00 p.m.)
Nicholls at Kansas (ESPN+, 7:00 p.m.)
South Dakota at Kansas State (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
Abilene Christian at Baylor (No national TV - 8:00 p.m.)
South Dakota State at Iowa State (No national TV - 8:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 1
August 29, 2018
By Joe Williams

2017-18 PAC-12 STANDINGS


NORTH DIVISION
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Washington 10-3 7-2 7-6 7-6
Stanford 9-5 7-3 7-6-1 6-8
Washington State 9-4 6-3 7-6 6-7
Oregon 7-6 4-5 6-7 6-7
California 5-7 2-7 8-4 5-7
Oregon State 1-11 2-9 3-9 9-3


SOUTH DIVISION
Southern California 11-3 9-1 3-10-1 8-6
Arizona State 7-6 6-3 7-6 6-7
Arizona 7-6 5-4 6-7 9-4
UCLA 6-7 4-5 4-9 8-5
Utah 7-6 3-6 9-3-1 6-7
Colorado 5-7 2-7 3-8-1 6-6


San Diego State at Stanford (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 9:00 p.m. ET)


The Cardinal open their season Friday night on The Farm, and they will have revenge on their minds. Head coach David Shaw's bunch took a 20-17 loss in San Diego on Sept. 16, 2017 as an 8 1/2-point favorite as the 'under' (47.5) cashed. That was a road game. The Cardinal was much better at home last season, posting a 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Aztecs will be looking to replace all-everything RB Rashaad Penny, now playing his football on Sundays for head coach Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks. The Aztecs are just 5-12-1 ATS in the past 18 non-conference battles and 6-13 ATS in the past 19 against the Pac-12 despite that win last season against Stanford. The under might be the attractive play. The under is 4-1 in San Diego State's past five against the Pac-12, while the under is 4-1 in Stanford's past five at home and 7-3 over their past 10 games overall.


Colorado vs. Colorado State at Denver, Colo. (Fri. - CBS Sports Network, 9:30 p.m. ET)


The Buffaloes head to Broncos Stadium at Mile High in Denver looking to add to the unexpected woes of the Rams, their rivals from up the road in Fort Collins. Colorado State suffered an inexplicable home loss against Hawaii in Week Zero, 43-34. QB K.J. Carta-Samuels wasn't the problem, as he threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns against the Warriors, but the pass defense of the Rams couldn't stop anyone. That might be a problem against experienced QB Steven Montez. The Buffaloes have posted a 3-1-1 ATS mark in the past five meetings in this series, while the under has hit in each of the past four meetings. More on the under, it is 6-0 in the past six for Colorado and 13-3 in the past 16 against Mountain West foes. The under is 5-1 in Colorado State's past six against the Pac-12 and 6-2 in the past eight neutral-site contests.


Oregon State at Ohio State (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)


The Beavers make the cross-country trek from Corvallis to Columbus for the Battle of OSU's, although the telecast will be dominated by the scandal involving Urban Meyer, his assistant Zach Smith and the domestic abuse allegations. Will it be a distraction for the Buckeyes, as they start their season? Vegas doesn't seem to think so, installing the Bucks as a 38 1/2-point favorite. Oregon State could catch a break, at least early on, as there might be some sluggishness on the other side as they slowly jell after all of the distractions. The Beavers are a dismal 1-4 ATS in the past five non-conference battles, 1-6 ATS in their past seven road games and 16-34-1 ATS in the past 51 games in September. Ohio State has posted an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 against Pac-12 foes.


Washington vs. Auburn at Atlanta, Ga. (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)


The Huskies and Tigers play in one of the more underrated first-week battles in a showdown of Top 10 schools. Washington opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite, but bettors have flipped that around and are backing Auburn, who is now a 1 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. Neither of these sides have been particularly good in non-conference games, as Washington is 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference battles, while Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in their past six outside of the conference and 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site tilts. Perhaps bettors will lean to the under, as the total has gone under in five of the past seven for Washington in a neutral-site contest. The under is 5-0-2 in Auburn's past seven neutral-site battles and 12-3-2 in their past 17 outside of the SEC.


Washington State at Wyoming (CBS Sports Network, 3:30 p.m.)


In one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 1, the high-octane Washington State offense will look to solve the suffocating defense of Craig Bohl's Wyoming side. The Cowboys posted an impressive 29-7 victory as five-point favorites at New Mexico State, a bowl team from a season ago. The Cougars do not have the luxury of a game under their belt, and they have to open on the road against a tough team. They are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts and 2-5-1 ATS in the past eight against the Mountain West Conference. Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, 9-2 ATS in the past 11 games overall and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against the Pac-12. While the over is 4-0 in Washington State's past four on the road, the under is 5-2 in the past seven non-conference tilts. The under is also 13-3 in Wyoming's past 16, 7-2 in the past nine non-conference battles and 4-0 in the past four against the Pac-12.


UNLV at Southern California (Pac-12 Conference, 4:00 p.m.)


The Runnin' Rebels travel to venerable Los Angeles Coliseum to battle the Trojans in the opener for both sides. USC is installed as a 26-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Trojans will be starting freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels, as the 18-year-old gets his feet wet. He'll need to learn on the job quickly, as ranked teams from Stanford and Texas await in the next two games. The Rebels have been pretty outstanding on the road over the past couple of seasons, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven road games and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 in the month of September. USC is 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, 1-6 ATS in the past seven in September and 0-5 ATS in the past five non-conference battles. Perhaps the over is the play, as the total has gone over in eight of the past nine non-conference games for UNLV while going 5-1 in their past six aganst the Pac-12. The over is 6-2 in USC's past eight overall and 11-5-1 in the past 17 non-conference contests.


North Carolina at California (FOX, 4:00 p.m.)


The Tar Heels head out to the left coast looking for revenge against the Golden Bears. Cal posted a 35-30 victory, winning outright as a 12 1/2-point favorite, while the 'over' connected. It was the first of many losses for UNC in a lost and injury-plagued season, as they went just 3-9 SU. However, the Tar Heels did end up 4-0 ATS in their final four games after a trying 1-8 ATS start. Cal lost their final two games of 2017 to fall just short of bowl eligibility, although like Carolina they were able to close on a high note by covering three straight, and five of their final six. California also covered all five of their home games last season against FBS opponents, and they're 9-2 ATS over the past 11 at home against FBS clubs.


Cincinnati at UCLA (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)


The Bearcats and Bruins will do battle in the Rose Bowl with UCLA favored by more than two touchdowns. Neither of these sides have fared particularly well against the number in recent seasons, especially against unfamiliar foes. Cincinnati is just 8-20 ATS in their past 28 games overall, and they're 4-10 ATS in the past 14 in the month of September. In addition, Cincy is 0-5 ATS in the past five games on grass. In Cincinnati's past 17 non-conference games the Bearcats have managed a dismal 4-13 ATS mark. The Bruins haven't been much better, going 7-17 ATS in the past 24 on grass, 4-11 ATS in the past 15 overall and 1-8 ATS in the past nine games in the month of September. In addition, the Bruins are a terrible 1-8 ATS in the past nine non-confernece battles. The under is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati's past 11 outside of the conference, while going 22-10-1 in the past 33 games overall. The under is 4-1 in UCLA's past five games at home, but the over is 5-2-1 in their past eight non-conference battles.


Bowling Green at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)


Oregon has been facing some FCS teams in the month of September in recent seasons to open, but this year they'll at least face an FBS club. The Ducks are still favored by more than four touchdowns to knock off Bowling Green from the MAC. Bowling Green heads into this one looking to turn around some ugly trends. They're 3-10 ATS in their past 13 games overall, while going 0-9 ATS in the past nine non-conference games and 0-9 ATS in the past nine in the month of September while going 3-7 ATS in the past 10 on a fieldturf surface. The Ducks haven't been much better, going 8-18-1 ATS in the past 27 games overall, 4-10-1 ATS in the past 15 in September while going 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine non-conference battles. Total bettors might be hammering the over this week in this battle. The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's past seven overall, and 4-0 in their past four on the road. The over is 52-19-1 in the past 72 games at home and 37-18-2 in the past 57 games in the month of September.


Texas-San Antonio at Arizona State (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)


The Roadrunners and Sun Devils do battle for the second time in the past three years as head coach Herm Edwards makes his college football debut at the helm. The last time UTSA played Arizona State in the Alamodome, the Sun Devils escaped with a 32-28 win on Sept. 16, 2016 while easily covering a 21 1/2-point number. The Roadrunners have covered each of their past four against the Pac-12, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six non-conference battles, too. The Sun Devils are 12-5 ATS in the past 17 games at home, but they're 0-5 ATS in the past five non-conference battles. The under hit in the final seven regular season games for UTSA, while going 4-0 in the past four road games. The over finished up 5-1 in the final six for Arizona State, however.


Brigham Young at Arizona (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)


The Cougars and Wildcats do battle in Tucson in an attractive late-night matchup to close out the Week 1 slate, at least the games in the conterminous 48. Arizona opened as a 15-point favorite, but the money has been on BYU, betting the line down to 11 1/2 points. The Cougars enter the game with a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four non-conference tilts, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven Pac-12 contests. Arizona hasn't been as fortunate against the number, although they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven at home. The Wildcats have covered just twice in the past eight non-conference battles, and they're 5-12 ATS in the past 17 September outings. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings in this series, while going 14-5 in BYU's past 19 no-conference battles. The under is also 8-3 in the past 11 on the road for the Cougs. For Aizona, the over is 6-2 in their past eight home games, and 4-1 in their past five non-conference battles.


Other Games


Weber State at Utah (Thu. - Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

College Essentials - Week 1
August 29, 2018
By Tony Mejia


The first weekend of the college football season featured only two games where FBS teams squared off against one another and produced an upset right out of the gate.


Hawai’I had a great weekend, capturing the Little League World Series less than 24 hours after its largest university held off 17-point favorite Colorado State to start 1-0 in Mountain West play. Wyoming won its first game post-Josh Allen thanks to an impressive defensive effort in a 29-7 victory at New Mexico State.


We’re now off and running with every other team set to debut in games scheduled daily beginning Thursday.


Here’s a look at the games I’m most excited about between Friday and Monday, a top ten that you can’t miss and should be wagering on if so inclined.


Friday, Aug. 31


Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-37.5/52.5), 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Badgers nearly ran the table last season, losing in the Big Ten Championship when they failed to get one last scoring drive against Ohio State. With Jonathan Taylor back to run behind a loaded offensive line, hopes are high in Madison. The Hilltoppers lost five of six to end Mike Sanford’s first season with a thud, losing to Georgia State in the Care Bowl. They’ll play five running backs and are breaking in a new starting quarterback in senior Drew Eckels, so keep that in mind if you’re tempted to take the points. The Badgers will begin answering the question of whether they have the firepower at receiver with Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis both suspended.


San Diego State at Stanford (-14.5/49), 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1: After a tough loss at USC last September, the Cardinal dropped out of the national title conversation by losing at the Aztecs as an eight-point favorite. SDSU’s star running back Rashaad Penny is now with the Seahawks but there are high hopes that Juwan Washington can follow adequately in his footsteps. He hasn’t even been practicing due to the risk of injury, so Stanford will have to deal with a fresh back. Counterpart Bryce Love should already be playing in the pros, so we’ll see if his gamble to stay in school pays off beyond getting a degree in human biology to realize his other dream of becoming a pediatrician. Special kid. The Aztecs will have a strong plan in pace with Rocky Long having so many defensive starters back, so it will be on K.J. Costello to ensure the Stanford passing game takes advantage after failing to capitalize on the room to succeed Love’s presence provides.

Saturday, Sept. 1


Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma (-21/68.5), 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX: Points are expected to pile up here as early numbers have placed this total near 70 and the ‘over’ should still be a popular play. It’s Lane Kiffin vs. Lincoln Riley, two offensive masterminds, going at in a season opener, so they’ll have had plenty of time in the lab to show off a few wrinkles that could overwhelm the defense. The Owls are stepping up in weight class significantly and haven’t seen a quarterback emerge to take the reins, so that’s going to be a concern in a hostile atmosphere in Norman. It would spice things up if Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison starts for Florida Atlantic. Kyler Murray replacing Baker Mayfield was always the expectation, so now it’s time to see if the former elite recruit who never lost in high school can produce at a high level consistently before beginning his journey in the A’s farm system. The Sooners are laying a big number, so he’ll need to be sharp to keep this from getting too interesting. Impressive OU RB Rodney Anderson will shoulder a heavy load, but FAU’s Devin Singletary is also a pro. It’s expected to be sunny, so weather shouldn’t be a concern.


Washington at Auburn (-1.5/49), 3:30 p.m ET, ABC: This one reigns as the top matchup of the weekend given the rankings and title aspirations both harbor. Huskies QB Jake Browning has gotten a reputation as a player who struggles in the biggest moments and took a step back after a brilliant sophomore year, so we’ll see how he attacks his senior season. Counterpart Jarrett Stidham is a potential No. 1 NFL overall pick given his arm and athleticism. Going up against SEC defenses will test him weekly, but don’t sell Washington short. Taylor Rapp is a tremendous safety leading one of the country’s top secondaries to the table. If Greg Gaines is back to his old self up front, Auburn will have some trouble moving it effectively. The dome at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium takes any weather concerns out the window and certainly gives the SEC’s Tigers the edge since their fan base will help create a great atmosphere and make life difficult for an offense that will lean on elite running back Myles Gaskin. It’s easy to dismiss what looks to be the Pac-12’s top team entering the season due to the league’s lack of success over the past few years but that would be foolish in this case. Washington has the coaching talent to take advantage of a season opener in which Gus Malzahn may believe his defense is ahead of the offensive, potentially slowing this contest down.


West Virginia (-10/61) vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: The Mountaineers have the nation’s most prolific returning passer in Will Grier and genuine Big 12 title aspirations, so it’s no surprise to see them as a double-digit favorite against the rebuilding Vols. There is significant SEC talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, that West Virginia must contend with in order to move it. The prospect of WR David Sills and Gary Jennings helping Grier light up a Vols’ defensive backfield that will start a pair of true freshmen. New head coach Jeremy Pruitt can coach and scheme up a defense, but this will be a tough first test for him and his staff in Charlotte. Tennessee has entrusted Jarrett Guarantano over Stanford transfer Keller Chryst with the keys to the offense despite a shaky freshman season, so the offense is somewhat of a mystery. Thunderstorms are a possibility here as well.


Michigan at Notre Dame (PK/47), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC: We’ve got ourselves a pick’em here in addition to the possibility of inclement weather, so I’d wait until closer to kickoff to pick a side in this potential classic. Jim Harbaugh is entering a critical fourth season in Ann Arbor and has his best quarterback since arriving back at his alma mater with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson at the controls. Unfortunately, talented receiver Tarik Black has been ruled out for a few months with an injury so Michigan will be down a playmaker in South Bend. The Wolverines topped the country in pass defense last season and will pose a major challenge for Irish QB Brandon Wimbush with so many starters back. Sophomore Ian Book might get in a series if the junior incumbent can’t produce results early but has remained the backup despite helping take down LSU in January’s Citrus Bowl. There are plenty of moving parts here. The last meeting between these former annual rivals saw Notre Dame help usher in the Harbaugh era with a 31-0 home win in 2014 that spelled the beginning of the end for Brady Hoke’s tenure. How will Brian Kelly fare now? Whichever team loses faces a major buzzkill.

Louisville vs. Alabama (-24.5/60), 8 p.m. ET, ABC: Nick Saban has another tremendous defense in place, but the Crimson Tide will have to prove it on the field given the roster turnover. Redshirt senior Christian Miller and juniors Raekwon Davis and Anfernee Jennings are worthy leaders who should make life difficult for Lamar Jackson’s replacement, Jawon Pass. Bobby Petrino will have a strong offensive game plan in place with so long to prepare for a daunting challenge, so we’ll likely see this QB race between Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts play out immediately. They’ve been listed as co-starters. The Tide are a 25-point favorite in Orlando, where rain is always a concern. Will having a new set of coordinators and a host of new faces derail the Tide or have them ready to show out. The ‘Ville will need standout WR Jaylen Smith to prove he’s a quick learner. He underwent an emergency appendectomy at the start of fall camp and is still coming along, which is unfortunate timing given the opening game opposition.


BYU at Arizona (-11.5/60.5), 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Cougars are looking to bounce back from their first losing season since 2004 and have chosen Tanner Mangum over highly touted freshman Zach Wilson to lead the offense out on the field in Tucson. Former Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin has taken over after the Rich Rodriguez era ended and promises to push tempo in order to make QB Khalil Tate continue to shine since he’s got Lamar Jackson-like skills. This should be compelling given where both programs are entering the season. BYU tight end Matt Bushman was a freshman All-American last season but wasn’t handed the starting job, which is likely a message thing. With WR Dylan Collie and RB Squally Canada in the mix, Mangum will have weapons to move the ball on the road. The speculation is he’ll have a long leash. The ‘Cats will have to give Tate time and room to work without suspended senior left tackle Layth Friekh after losing three starters to graduation. The other key returnee, center Nathan Eldridge, has been hampered by knee issues and may not be up to speed if he can go. Getting the offensive line prepared has been one of Sumlin’s top objectives upon arrival.


Sunday, Sept. 2


Miami, FL (-3.5/48) vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The luster off the Bayou Bengals since they’ve been denied double-digit victories for four years and counting. The chances of Ed Orgeron changing that this season don’t look great and will be virtually non-existent if they fail at Arlington’s AT&T Stadium given the schedule ahead. LSU’s defense will have to replace a number of key figures but has a chance to again be solid with coordinator Dave Aranda at the controls. The Tigers have a new quarterback too, though Orgeron won’t say who he’s chosen between Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow and lightly experienced sophomore Myles Brennan. Miami hadn’t won 10 games since their 2003 team finished in the top-5 but won its first 10 last year in Mark Richt’s second season at the helm. They were beaten in their final three games last season but return plenty of talent on both sides of the coin, including QB Malik Rosier and RB Travis Homer. Rosier has been streaky, so improved consistency will likely end up being the key to this game and the Hurricanes’ season. Keep an eye on the matchup between UM receiver Ahmonn Richards and LSU corner Greedy Williams.


Monday, Sept. 3


Virginia Tech at Florida State (-7/57), 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee opens against one of his new conference’s top programs, so there’s the potential for a rough start. Of course, the ‘Noles could also hit the ground running if Deondre Francois can pick up where he left off before being injured last season. He beat out James Blackman for the QB job and has a lot of talent to work with against a Hokies defense that lost a significant amount of talent. Bud Foster is one of the best in the business but it’s tough to expect to put together one of his typical stingy units immediately, especially since this opener is on the road. In Josh Jackson, Virginia Tech has perhaps the ACC’s top offensive threat and is capable of stealing this one. The schedules ease up for both teams in the first few weeks, so this is no deal-breaker even though it doubles as a crucial league game right out of the gate. The winner is set up to go on a run, so our Monday night college fill-in carries major consequences.

 

[CNOTES]

Louisville vs. Alabama
August 29, 2018
By Brian Edwards


Matchup: Louisville vs. (1) Alabama
Venue: at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, Sept. 1, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC


From 1973-2006, Nick Saban was the football version of Larry Brown. He never stayed at one job for more than five years.


If Saban and the Miami Dolphins medical staff hadn’t doubted how quickly Drew Brees had recovered from the nasty shoulder injury suffered on his last play as a San Diego Charger, Brees and Saban might still be in South Florida. Instead, the ‘Fins signed Daunte Culpepper ahead of Brees and we know how that went down.


If Rich Rodriguez would’ve taken the Alabama job offered to him by former AD Mal Moore while Saban still had another 4-5 games left in his last season with Miami, perhaps Saban would’ve stayed with the Dolphins? Maybe he would’ve ended up at another SEC school?


We’ll never know. What we do know is that Saban is about to enter his 12th season in Tuscaloosa. During the first 11 years of his tenure, Saban has won five national championships. Five!


And he might not be done yet. Alabama will begin its quest for a sixth national title in 11 years on Saturday night when it takes on Louisville in Orlando at Camping World Stadium.


As of Wednesday morning, most books had Alabama listed as a 24.5 or 25-point favorite with a total of 60.5. The Cardinals had 15/1 money-line odds at William Hill (risk $100 to win $1,500).


Alabama finished last season 13-1 straight up and 6-7-1 against the spread. After winning its first 11 games, the Crimson Tide lost 26-14 at Auburn in its regular-season finale at Jordan-Hare Stadium. This gave the Tigers the SEC West title, but they got thumped by Georgia at the SEC Championship Game to open the door for Saban’s team to sneak into the College Football Playoff.


The Tide is the only school that’s made the CFP in all four years of its existence, going 5-2 with a semifinal loss to Ohio State in 2014 and a last-second loss to Clemson in the 2016 finals.


Alabama returns seven starters on offense but only three on defense. Seven of the top-nine tacklers on defense are gone, as is star wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who left for the NFL a year early but still finished third in school history in career receiving yards with 2,781.


With the exception of the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Nov. 24 when most books have Alabama favored by nine over Auburn in Games of the Year, Alabama is currently favored by 14 or more in each of its regular-season games. Unless Saban’s club is decimated by injuries, suspensions or shockingly poor play at the QB position, it figures to be favored by at least three touchdowns in its first eight games.


Therefore, Alabama’s season will essentially come down to three games in November – at LSU (11/3), vs. Mississippi State (11/10) and vs. Auburn. This space and seemingly most other pundits feel that MSU is superior to LSU this year, meaning the Tide gets its two toughest games at home.


As I often say, things happen during a football season. We’ll see dozens of torn ACL’s, high-ankle sprains and injuries to other body parts between now and the end of October. Those injuries, in addition to suspensions and chemistry issues, can completely change the dynamic of any football team in an instant.


My point? Nothing is a given in college football. With that said, it’s hard to imagine Alabama not getting back to the CFP for a fifth straight campaign. And I hate making a statement like that before the first snap. Hell, I loathe when prognosticators pencil a team in to go undefeated in mid-October. But I guess I’ll be “that guy” this year and take it even a step further: I really can’t envision a scenario where Clemson and Alabama aren’t back in the CFP.


Certainly, the odds in Las Vegas and offshore support this notion. Sportsbook.ag has Alabama with -275 odds to make the CFP. Clemson is at -225. The offshore book has the Tide as the +210 ‘chalk’ to win the CFP (risk $100 to win $210) and the -170 favorite to win the SEC.


The offseason banter in Tuscaloosa has predictably centered around the QB position. Since taking over as the starter in Week 2 of his true freshman season in ’16, Jalen Hurts has helped Alabama to a 26-2 record in 28 career starts. He was 24-1 going into last year’s Iron Bowl with the only defeat coming to Clemson in the CFP finals when a last-second TD pass by Deshaun Watson lifted the Tigers to victory.


But Hurts struggled mightily in the loss at Auburn. In the CFP semifinal win over Clemson by a 24-6 count last year in New Orleans, it was the defense that was the catalyst. Hurts and the offense did enough, but it was clear that this unit wasn’t playing well going into the finals against Georgia.


When the Bulldogs went to intermission ahead 13-0 in Atlanta, I felt like it was a no-brainer for Saban to give Hurts the hook in favor of 5-star recruit and true freshman Tua Tagovailoa. He did just that and it certainly paid dividends.


Tagovailoa did make some mistakes, including an interception early in the third quarter. Nevertheless, he made enough plays in the passing game to ignite the offense. Alabama eventually pulled even at 20-20 and when it missed a potential game-winning field goal late in regulation, we went to overtime. UGA put up a field goal on the first possession of the extra session.


Then on Alabama’s first play from scrimmage, Tagovailoa made a crucial (freshman) mistake and was sacked for a 16-yard loss. UGA fans could nearly taste the school’s first national title since 1980. But on the next play, Tagovailoa made a pass that had NFL scouts drooling when he hit fellow true freshman WR DeVonta Smith for a 41-yard scoring strike to give the Tide the win and another ‘natty.’


Saban has named Tagovailoa and Hurts co-starters for the U of L game. Perhaps Saban is just trying to keep Hurts engaged? Maybe all the talk out of Tuscaloosa that Tagovailoa was clearly going to be the starter was a bunch of nonsense? Whatever the case, it’s clear that Tagovailoa is the much better passer. However, Hurts has lots more experience, is less prone to committing turnovers and his scrambling skills are a non-stop threat to opposing defenses.


Remember, Hurts had a 17/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. He also ran for 855 yards (999 before subtracting yardage for sacks) and eight TDs while averaging 5.6 yards per carry, garnering second-team All-SEC honors one year after being a first-team All-SEC choice. Other than the second half of the CFP finals vs. UGA, Tagovailoa played almost exclusively at garbage time. He had an 11/2 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.


Phil Steele’s SEC Unit Rankings in his preseason magazine tabs Alabama tops in the league at QB, RB, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, defensive backs and in team chemistry. The only units not atop the conference are WRs (sixth) and special teams (seventh).


Senior RB Damien Harris has 2,194 career rushing yards after producing 1,000 with 11 TDs and a 7.4 YPC average in 2017. Najee Harris (6.1 YPC) and Josh Jacobs (6.2 YPC) are more-than-capable reserves at RB.


Three true sophomores are set to start at WR, including Smith. Henry Ruggs had 12 receptions for 229 yards and six TDs in ’17, while Jerry Jeudy had 14 catches for 264 yards and two TDs.


Center Ross Piershbacher and OT Jonah Williams are preseason first-team All-Americans in Steele’s mag. Harris is a second-team All-American, as is DE Raekwon Davis. The Alabama o-line is ranked third in the country by Steele.


Alabama’s defense must replace three first-round draft picks in safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (11th to Miami), DT Daron Payne (13th to Washington) and LB Rashaan Evans (22nd to Tennessee). Davis will anchor the d-line after recording 69 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 1.5 tackles for loss and two QB hurries and one interception last season.


Mack Wilson and Dylan Moses are going to take on bigger roles as starting LBs. Wilson produced 40 tackles, four interceptions, four QB hurries, 2.5 TFL’s and two passes broken up while starting two games and playing in a reserve role otherwise. Moses also started just two games, registering 30 tackles, four TFL’s, 1.5 sacks and one interception. Moses and Wilson were both five-star recruits coming out of high school.


Alabama is dealing with several injuries. LB Terrell Lewis (ACL) is out for the season and LB Christopher Allen is ‘out’ indefinitely with a knee injury. Harris, the sophomore RB, is ‘questionable’ with a knee injury, while starting OT Matt Womack is ‘doubtful’ with a foot injury. Womack started all 14 games for the Tide last year. Finally, second-string safety Daniel Wright is ‘questionable’ with a shoulder issue.


Louisville finished ’17 with an 8-5 SU record and a 5-8 ATS mark. Bobby Petrino’s squad won seven games by double-digit margins and went 4-1 both SU and ATS in its final five regular-season contests. However, the Cardinals ended the Lamar Jackson Era on a disappointing note by losing 31-27 to Mississippi State at the Taxslayer Bowl even though the Bulldogs were without star QB Nick Fitzgerald and gave a true freshman his first start under center.


U of L brings back seven starters on offense and four on defense. The offense averaged 42.5 PPG in ’16 when Jackson won the Heisman Trophy. Although still prolific, this unit scored at a 38.1 PPG clip last season. Jackson threw for 3,660 yards with a 27/10 TD-INT ratio in ’17, in addition to rushing for 1,601 yards and 18 TDs with a 6.9 YPC average.


You simply can’t replace numbers like that. As much as I dislike Petrino as a human being, I trust his coaching acumen on the offensive side of the ball enough to confidently say that this team is still going to score a lot of points.


Jawon Pass is the third-year sophomore left to fill Jackson’s shoes. As a redshirt freshman in ’17, he completed 23-of-33 throws (69.7%) for 238 yards and two TDs without an interception. Pass ran 13 times for 62 yards and one TD with a 4.8 YPC average.


Pass has an elite group of wideouts to target. Steele ranks U of L’s WRs as the 10th-best unit in the nation and tops in the ACC. Senior Jaylen Smith missed three games in ’17 but still earned first-team All-ACC honors. He had 60 receptions for 980 yards and seven TDs, while Dez Fitzpatrick had 45 catches for 699 yards and nine TDs. Seth Dawkins brought down 42 grabs for 642 yards and four TDs.


There’s a lack of depth and experience at running back. It appears that it’ll be a rotation between redshirt freshman Colin Wilson, Dae Williams and Trey Smith. Williams, who rushed for 235 yards and three TDs with a 6.2 YPC average in ’17, is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. ‘Bama due to an undisclosed injury.


U of L’s offensive line is ranked by Steele as the nation’s 27th-best. OT Mekhi Becton, who started 10 games as a true freshman last season, is a third-team preseason All-ACC choice.


U of L’s defense lost DC Todd Grantham to Mississippi State before last year. Petrino replaced Grantham with Peter Sirmon, who saw his ‘D’ allow 27.4 PPG. Petrino sent Sirmon packing to replace him with veteran DC Brian Van Gorder, who has served in the same post at schools like Notre Dame, Auburn, Georgia and with the Atlanta Falcons.


Van Gorder is hoping that the arrival of four Power Five transfers will bolster this unit. Junior LB Boosie Whitlow started three games in two years at South Carolina before sitting out all of ‘17 due to transfer rules. CB P.J. Mbanasor started two games at Oklahoma in two years before transferring last season. In addition, Marlon Character is expected to start at safety after beginning his career at Auburn and then leaving for a junior college. Finally, CB Rodjay Burns will be in the DB rotation after leaving Ohio State and sitting out ’17.


Four of U of L’s top-five tacklers are gone, but leading tackler Dorian Etheridge is back. The sophomore MLB enjoyed a banner true freshman campaign in ’17, producing 83 tackles, three TFl’s and two PBU. DE Jonathan Greenard was outstanding last season when he tallied 48 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, seven sacks, eight QB hurries and one PBU.


Petrino is 34-18 in his second tour of duty at Louisville, but he’s still looking for his first 10-win season. He is 2-4 both SU and ATS in six games played on a neutral field. The Cardinals covered the spread in a 31-24 loss to sixth-ranked Auburn as 10.5-point underdogs in the 2015 opener at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.


On Petrino’s watch the past four seasons, U of L has been a double-digit ‘dog just the one time noted against Auburn. The Cardinals were 9.5-point ‘dogs and took the cash in a 23-17 loss at Clemson in 2014.


ABC will provide television coverage at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Sportsbook’s season win total for ‘Bama is 11 (‘over’ -120, ‘under’ -110), while Louisville is at seven (‘under’ -125, ‘over’ -105).


-- Petrino went winless against Alabama in four games during his tenure at Arkansas. The Razorbacks lost those games by an average of 23.0 PPG.


-- Alabama hasn’t played at this venue since its bowl game to conclude the 2010 season when it blasted Michigan State by a 49-7 count as an eight-point ‘chalk.’


-- Alabama is opening the season with a neutral-field game for the seventh straight year. The Tide is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the six previous openers. The lone non-cover came in Atlanta when Saban’s bunch beat West Virginia 33-23 as a 25.5-point favorite in 2014. All six victories have come by double-digit margins, including W’s over FSU (24-7 in ’17), USC (52-6 in ’16), Wisconsin (35-17 in ’15), Va. Tech (35-10 in ’14) and Michigan (41-14 in ’13).

 

[CNOTES]

Oregon State at Ohio State
August 29, 2018

By Kyle Markus


College Football Preview - Oregon State Beavers at Ohio State Buckeyes


The Ohio State Buckeyes believe they have what it takes to win a national championship this season. Their journey will begin this week when they face off against the Oregon State Beavers, but it will be without coach Urban Meyer. He has been suspended for the first three games of the season after the mishandling of domestic violence allegations.


Meyer is one of the best coaches in college football and his absence should be felt in this one, but Ohio State will still be the sizable favorite at home. The Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback and lost some talent to the NFL but boasts plenty of talent.


Oregon State will be hard-pressed to win this game but hopes to at least remain competitive in NCAA football gambling.


The Oregon State Beavers and Ohio State Buckeyes will face off on Saturday, September 1st, 2018 at 12 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio. The game will be nationally televised on ABC.


We'll have college football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAA football season.


Odds Analysis


Ohio State is a massive 37.5-point favorite in this matchup, a spread that’s hard to find when two Power Five teams face off. But the Buckeyes are national title contenders and the Beavers are coming off a season in which they captured just one game. Ohio State is giving 75 percent of the action despite the massive spread.


The scoring total is listed at 64 points. The “over” is getting 64 percent of the action in college football gambling.


Player to Watch


Dwayne Haskins -- The Buckeyes have named Haskins the starting quarterback following an offseason competition with Tate Martell. Haskins saw limited work a season ago, completing 40-of-57 passes for 565 yards with four touchdowns and an interception.


J.T. Barrett moved on to the NFL after last season, opening up the battle to replace him. Martell is an athletic player and should see time this season, but Haskins will get the first chance under center. He hopes to play well from the beginning and it’s an easy landing. Oregon State allowed 43.0 points per game in 2017, which was third-worst in the country.


The Beavers are going to be inferior at nearly every position when these teams match up, which should allow Haskins to dominate. The true tests will come later in the season as Ohio State proves whether or not it is a true national championship contender, and Haskins will look to get comfortable in the spotlight in this one.


Key Stat


6. That’s the number of times in a row Oregon State has failed to cover a game in September. The Beavers have gotten off to slow starts of late and have to be crisper in order to change that narrative in this one.


Oregon State has only covered in one of its past seven season openers so the Beavers will need to play better out of the gate in order to buck these recent trends. It can be a poor coaching strategy if a team continues to fall short on covering spread consistently early in the season, or it means the oddsmakers have misperceived the team’s talent.


Free College Football ATS Picks


Ohio State is one of the best programs in the country and should be able to run roughshod over the Beavers. The Buckeyes have to replenish this season but sign great recruiting classes each year and have talent waiting in the wings.


Oregon State has a new coach but there are a bunch of talent issues in Corvallis. Even without Meyer the Buckeyes are not going to miss a beat. This is a big spread but Ohio State is the pick to cover with a blowout victory in NCAA football wagering.


College Football ATS Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes 55, Oregon State Beavers 13

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday's Best Bets
August 28, 2018
By BetDSI


Thursday College Football Betting Preview


After wetting our CFB appetites with a couple games last Saturday to open the collegiate football season, the year begins in earnest this week with five days of action that begins on Thursday. We've got four games featuring FBS teams against one another on Thursday night and half of those games are actually conference battles in the AAC and Big 10.


However, it's one of the non-conference games on the schedule that caught my eye in terms of a betting perspective. So let's get right to breaking down this game, as hopefully we can kickstart a full weekend of college football action with a few more units in our bankroll.


Best Bet 1 and 2: New Mexico State +21 and Over 45.5


Admittedly this isn't the greatest spot at all for the New Mexico State Aggies as it's a quick turnaround for them after they lost 29-7 at home last Saturday. That lackluster performance, combined with the lack of rest they've had between games is a major reason why this line has been bet up heavily in Minnesota's favor (opened at -18 and reached as low as -17) since Saturday night as there wasn't a whole lot to like from the Aggies offense in their season opener.


Yet, if you are going to get saddled with a short week, there is probably no better time to deal with it than the first two weeks of the year, and the Aggies do have the added benefit of getting those early season jitters out of the way.


Putting up a measly seven points in garbage time against Wyoming last week was highly disappointing for a New Mexico State program that was 6th in the country in passing yards a year ago (340.2/game) as new starting QB Matthew Romero (a JuCo transfer) did nothing but dink and dunk the football (16-for-27 for just 140 yards) against that stout Wyoming defense.


It was obvious Romero was feeling some nerves being on the big stage for the first time and I expect him to play much looser and more aggressive in his second outing. Coming in as big underdogs, he and the rest of the Aggies don't really have a choice other than to be aggressive to give themselves a shot.


Minnesota's defense is a solid one, but with only one returning starter from a year ago, quite a few freshmen projected to get the starting nod, and a defensive unit coming in with the mindset that they won't have to do much to win the game, I don't believe the Gophers will be all that good at slowing the Aggies offense down.


The talent gap Minnesota has is obviously there given the large spread, but focus, perspective, and nerves can hit them just as they hit the Aggies offense a week ago and I do believe we get New Mexico to put up 17+ points this week. Remember, last week's poor showing offensively likely skewed this total a lot lower than it probably should be as well.


Finally, Minnesota has named true freshman Zack Annexstad as their starting QB and his ascension to that role is another big reason why I'm taking the points with the visitors and backing the high side of this total. Annexstad is going to feel some nerves as well and with this being his first game at any collegiate level, trusting him to cover all those points is tough. There could be mental and physical mistakes that end up hurting Minnesota drives because of it and quite often those lead to points the other way.


Annexstad was named the starter for a reason though and I do believe we see him put up some decent numbers as well. Making the most of his opportunities in regards to scoring TD's as opposed to settling for FG's is the goal as a big favorite here, and I would not be surprised to see Minnesota – a team that averaged just 22.1 points per game a year ago, start off 2018 with a 30+ point effort.


In the end, I've got this game finishing somewhere in the range of 31-17 for the Golden Gophers and given the room for error on both sides with that projection, correlating a big underdog that nobody wants a part of after already seeing them play one game with the 'over' – another minority side with VegasInsider.com showing just 30% on the high side of the total – is how I'm attacking this contest.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Top Wager
August 28, 2018


By Kyle Markus


NCAA Football Game Preview - San Diego State Aztecs at Stanford Cardinal


The San Diego State Aztecs have established themselves as one of the stronger non-Power Five programs in the country, giving powerful teams trouble in recent years. They will have more chances in 2018, beginning with a season-opening matchup against the Stanford Cardinal.


San Diego State won 10 games a year ago, including an upset of this very Stanford team. However, starting the season strong won’t be as easy. The Aztecs lost star running back Rashaad Penny to the NFL, as he was chosen in the first round of the draft by the Seahawks. The Cardinal are on the short list of teams expected to contend in the Pac-12 this season, and while this is not a conference game, it could be a good barometer of Stanford’s strength.


This is one of the more marquee opening-week matchups of the college football season in NCAA wagering.


The San Diego State Aztecs and Stanford Cardinal will face off on Friday, August 31st, 2018 at 9 p.m. ET at Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, California. The game will be nationally televised on FS1.


We'll have college football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAA football season.


Odds Analysis


Stanford is listed as a 14.5-point favorite as San Diego State’s loss of key personnel and the change in location has the oddsmakers believing the Cardinals will win this one comfortably.


Previous Matchup


The Aztecs hosted Stanford in mid-September a season ago. Even though the Cardinals was ranked No. 19 in the country, San Diego State came away with the 20-17 victory. Quarterback Christian Chapman found David Wells on an 8-yard touchdown pass with 54 seconds remaining to give the Aztecs the comeback win.


Penny carried the ball 32 times for 175 yards and a touchdown. Stanford running back Bryce Love was even better, rushing 13 times for an incredible 184 yards and two scores. However, the Cardinal got nothing out of its passing game, as Keller Chryst completed 9-of-20 passes for 72 yards with a pair of interceptions.


Player To Watch


Love -- The dominant performance against the Aztecs was a harbinger of things to come for the Stanford running back in 2017. He finished the season with 263 carries for 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns. Love averaged a robust 8.1 yards per carry a season ago and enters 2018 as one of the front-runners for the Heisman Trophy.


His presence is one of the main reasons Stanford is the team to beat in this matchup. San Diego State can’t let him run wild because the Aztecs have to expect the Stanford passing game will be better this year.


Free College Football ATS Picks


San Diego State is a solid program and even without Penny the team’s running game should remain strong. However, Stanford has the better team this year as well as the home field advantage. Take the Cardinal to capture this victory, but the spread is too high.


San Diego State will cover in NCAA football gambling.


College Football ATS Pick: Stanford Cardinal 31, San Diego State Aztecs 17

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Wager
August 29, 2018


By Kyle Markus


College Football Preview - Mississippi Rebels vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders


The Texas Tech Red Raiders have spent years boasting one of the most explosive offenses in college football. This year, they are giving defense a try. Texas Tech has questions on the offensive side of the ball but is expected to be competitive because of its newfound ability to slow down opponents. That will be tested in Week 1 when it faces the Mississippi Rebels in an interesting Big 12/SEC showdown.


Mississippi had an offense that got rolling by the end of the year and returns a lot of talent. This is a very intriguing matchup and may help detail which team has the potential to push for a quality bowl game at the end of the year.


A lot of early-season games are expected to be blowouts but this one is stacking up as a game that should be competitive in NCAA football odds.


The Mississippi Rebels and Texas Tech Red Raiders will face off on Saturday, September 1st, 2018 at 12 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will be nationally televised on ESPN.


We'll have college football odds at BookMaker.eu available for every game of the 2018 NCAA football season.


Odds Analysis


The game is being played at a neutral site at the home of the NFL’s Houston Texans. The Red Raiders are listed as the two-point favorites and they are getting a little more than 54 percent of the action to cover the spread.


The scoring total is listed 67.5 points, and the “over” has been the more popular choice. Mississippi is the +105 underdog on the moneyline, while Texas Tech is listed as the -125 favorite. The Rebels are the more popular choice on the moneyline in college football gambling.


Player to Watch


A.J. Brown -- The Texas Tech defense must concentrate on Mississippi’s star wide receiver. Brown had 75 catches for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns a season ago. He is projected to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft this April and should be fed early and often in this one.


Texas Tech has some solid players on defense but there isn’t anyone that is likely to consistently shut down Brown all game. If he can haul in a touchdown and surpass 100 receiving yards, it should give the Rebels a decent shot at the victory. Brown put up big numbers last year despite the team changing quarterbacks in the middle of the season and figures to dominate in 2018.


Key Stat


10. That’s how many defensive starters Texas Tech is returning this season. So even though the Red Raiders gave up a middling 32.2 points per game and finished under .500 a year ago, the return of so much experience is the reason for optimism.


Texas Tech was really bad defensively two seasons ago before taking a nice step forward. The rush defense, especially, played well and if the group can continue that in 2018 a bowl game could be on the horizon.


This is a big game for those chances and a winnable one. The Red Raiders were good at forcing turnovers a season ago, coming away with 29 of then. If the group can be opportunistic in this one it will be in good shape to pick up the win.


Free College Football ATS Picks


Mississippi is ineligible for a bowl this year, which might take some of the luster off the season opener. Texas Tech fans could be more amped up, which could lead to a de facto home field advantage even though this is a neutral site.


The Red Raiders are slight favorites and should be able to cover this spread on the strength of a nice defensive effort to open the year in NCAA football wagering.


College Football ATS Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders 33, Mississippi Rebels 27

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday games


Central Florida went 13-0 LY, after going 0-12 in 2015; now they’ve got a new coach, with Frost off to Nebraska. UCF won 49-24, 24-16 in its last two games with UConn; Knights have QB with 23 career starts- their offensive line has 85 career starts, which is good. UCF covered seven of its last ten road games; they’re 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a favorite. UConn is 17-44 the last five years; since 2014, they’re 5-10 as home underdogs. Huskies have a senior QB with 4 career starts; their OL has 63 career starts.


Northwestern won its last four games with Purdue, winning 45-17/38-14 in last two visits here. Both teams have 100+ starts returning on OL; Wildcats have a senior QB with 39 career starts. Northwestern is 7-6 vs spread in its last 14 road games; they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. Purdue has nine starters back on offense, only four on defense; they covered seven of last eight tries as home favorites. Boilers lost three of last four season openers that were against I-A opponents. Purdue has two QB’s with experience; which one will start?


New Mexico State got whacked 29-7 at home by Wyoming Saturday; Aggies were outgained 449-135, had 51 penalty yards and minus-9 rushing yards- not good. Since 2015, State is 9-8 vs spread as road underdogs- they’ve got 17 starters back, 9 on defense, a new QB and an OL with 103 starts. Minnesota has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’ve got a new QB. Since 2015, Gophers are 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite.


Wake Forest QB Hinton (2 starts LY) is suspended for this game. Deacons (-17) nipped Tulane 7-3 at home in the 2016 season opener. Wake has 14 starters back (8 on offense, 4 on OL- 132 returning starts!!!); they are 1-3 as road favorites the last eight years (0-2 under Clawson)- they covered eight of last 10 non-ACC games. Tulane has 14 starters back, 9 on offense (91 starts on OL); Green Wave is 3-2 as home underdogs under Fritz. Tulane has a senior QB with 11 career starts. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-4 vs spread when facing an AAC opponent.


Friday/Saturday’s best 13 games


Colorado won its last three games with Colorado State 17-3/44-7/27-24; Buffaloes are 12-8 as favorites under MacIntyre, but were just 1-4 LY. Buffs’ QB Montez has 15 career starts; they’ve got only 10 starters back, four on offense. Colorado State (last week’s info). Under Bobo, Rams are 6-8 vs spread out of conference; they covered nine of last 12 games as an underdog. Last three year, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West foe.


Northern Illinois (+3) upset Iowa 30-27 in last meeting five years ago; Huskies covered four of last five games vs Big 14 opponents. NIU has 14 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 111 starters back. Huskies are 10-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Carey; their QB is a sop with only 7 career starts. Iowa is 12-22-1 vs spread in its last 35 home games; they’ve got 13 starters back, 7 on offense. Hawkeyes’ QB is a junior with 13 starts. Last three years, MAC teams are 19-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Maryland (+17) went to Austin LY and shocked Texas 51-41, running ball for 263 yards, but Terps had a terrible off-season, with a player dying in conditioning workouts. Hard to tell what effect that will have, but it won’t be good. Maryland is 5-7 vs spread at home with Durkin; their OL has 105 returning starts, but their QB has almost no experience. Texas covered four of five on road in Herman’s first year; Longhorns have two experienced QB’s- their OL has 102 starts. Last four years, Big X teams are 6-5-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.


Vanderbilt won its last three games with Middle Tennessee, winning 47-24 (-3) in last meeting here in ‘16. Commodores have 12 starters back, 7 on offense- their senior QB Shurmur (30 starts) is son of the NJ Giants’ coach. Vandy is 13-14 vs spread at home under Mason, 4-8 when a home favorite. MTSU has 17 starters back, 9 on defense; senior QB Stockstill (32 starts) is the coach’s son. Blue Raiders are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs. Last three years, SEC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread against Conference USA opponents.


Arizona (-1.5) beat BYU 18-16 in last meeting two years ago, on a neutral field. Arizona debut for Kevin Sumlin, who was 13-19-1 as home favorite in his last job (Tex A&M). Since 2012, Wildcats are 11-13-1 as home favorites; they’ve got 16 starters back, 9 on defense- their mobile junior QB Tate has 9 starts. Arizona’s OL has 66 returning starts. BYU has senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has only 39 returning starts. Cougars have 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; they’re 7-3 as road underdogs under Sitake.


Long trip into SEC country (Atlanta) for Washington squad that has senior QB with 39 career starts, an OL with 97 career starts. Under Petersen, U-Dub is 17-14 vs spread away from home. Huskies have 17 starters back, 9 on defense. Since 2014, Auburn is just 5-14-1 vs spread in out of conference games; Tigers have junior QB with 17 starts- their OL has only 40 returning starts. Auburn has 13 returning starters, 7 on defense. Last seven years, SEC teams are 8-3 vs Pac-12 opponents, but Pac-12 teams won both matchups LY.


Ole Miss-Tex Tech haven’t met since 2009; last two years, Rebels were 2-6 vs spread outside the SEC. Ole Miss has 15 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 102 returning starts. Rebels’ QB is a senior with only 5 career starts. Tech has a new QB; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense- their OL has 93 returning starts, but only one starter is a senior. Under Kingsbury, Red Raiders are 9-8-1 vs spread out of conference. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Houston, so Tech will have crowd edge.


West Virginia has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 65 returning starts, the senior QB has 16 career starts. Mountaineers covered only one of last nine neutral field games. Tennessee has a new coach, their 5th coach in 11 years. Since 2012, Vols are 12-15 vs spread out of conference. Tennessee’s OL has 51 returning starts; their grad transfer QB had 13 career starts at Stanford. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Charlotte, NC, so crowd support should be fairly even.


North Carolina QB Surratt is suspended here for selling his sneakers; some of UNC’s offensive line are also out. Cal (+12) won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season, throwing for 363 yards. Tar Heels have 13 starters back, 8 on defense; their OL has only 19 returning starts- since 2015, UNC is 10-4 vs spread on road. California covered nine of its last 12 home games; they’ve got 18 starters back, 10 on offense. Bears’ junior QB has 12 starts; their OL has 76 returning starts. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.


Home side won last four Michigan-Notre Dame games; teams last met in 2014. Irish won 31-0 in last meeting here. Wolverines are 6-8 vs spread on road under Harbaugh; their new QB is Ole Miss transfer Patterson, who started 10 games at Ole Miss. Michigan has 17 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 54 returning starts. Notre Dame has 15 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 65 returning starters, their QB has 12. Since 2011, Irish are 14-11 vs spread at home- they covered their last three games as a home underdog.


Alabama hasn’t announced their starting QB yet; obviously both are good. Crimson Tide covered four of its last five season openers. Alabama has 103 returning starts on its OL, but has only three returning starters on defense- they’ve got injury problems at linebacker. Louisville is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten games as an underdog; Cardinals have a new QB- their OL has 79 returning starts, their defense has only four returning starters. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Orlando.


Miami has 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; Hurricanes’ OL has 55 returning starts, their QB has 14 starts. Miami covered only one of its last seven games on a neutral field. LSU has five starters back on both sides of ball; their OL has only 35 returning starts. Tigers will also have a new QB. Since 2012, LSU is 11-17 vs spread outside the SEC. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. These teams haven’t met since 2005.


Virginia Tech-Florida St split their last four meetings; they haven’t met since 2012. Tech has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 51 returning starts. Hokies’ sophomore QB has 13 starts. Since 2013, Tech covered six of last eight games as road underdogs. First game at Florida State for Taggart, who is coaching his third different school in three years. Seminoles have 12 starters back, but only four on defense; their OL has 90 career starts. Looks like Francois returns at QB after missing almost all of LY with an injury. Since 2014, FSU is 10-14 as a home favorite.

 

[CNOTES]

Week 1 Upset Alert
August 29, 2018
By Sportsbetting.ag


NCAAF Week 1 Upset Alert


Now that the first full week of the 2018 college football season has finally arrived, it's an exciting time knowing that Saturday's for the next three months will be chalk-full of highly entertaining games and great betting opportunities. Yet, continually laying the “chalk” each week can get you and your bankroll in trouble if you're not being selective enough or doing the right amount of homework, as each week we see numerous upsets in the college football world.


This weekly piece at VegasInsider.com will take a look at some of those potentially 'live' underdogs from various point spread ranges, and hopefully those that aren't scared to expose themselves to a little more risk will back a few of these underdogs on the ML as well.


Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 point spread range


SMU +4.5 over North Texas

SMU opens up the 2018 campaign on the road against a North Texas team that's got eyes on returning to the Conference USA championship game. The Mean Green were flat out embarrassed in that title game against FAU last year (41-17) and let those down feelings affect them in their Bowl loss (50-30) against Troy. All of that should be water under the bridge to start this year off, but the did lose 54-32 at SMU last year and it's not like the Mustangs haven't gone out and made improvements themselves this off-season.


SMU went out and hired Sonny Dykes to be their new HC and his “air raid” attack should further the development of this program throughout 2018. SMU has also been a program that tends to play very well early on in the year before struggling mightily in conference play, and that also bodes well for them in this spot.


Sure, the revenge angle is working against the Mustangs after last year's win over North Texas, but it's not hard to see the same end result happening again. Dykes was brought in to SMU to win and win now, and we could easily see SMU start off the year 1-0 SU and ATS.


Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 point spread range


Cincinnati +14.5 over UCLA


Cincinnati is in Year 2 of the Luke Fickell era and they are hoping for much better results overall. The Bearcats were a disappointing 4-8 SU and ATS a season ago, but with a returning senior QB in Hayden Moore leading the attack, Cincinnati should improve on that record greatly this year. It could easily start with an upset win over a UCLA program that's going through plenty of changes themselves.


The Bruins are moving on from the Josh Rosen era and into the Chip Kelly era and that alone should make it an interesting season to be a UCLA fan. Kelly flamed out in the pro ranks after a very successful tenure at Oregon, and obviously both he and the administration at UCLA believe he can jump right back into that collegiate boat and keep on paddling downstream. The arrogance Kelly had about “his system” proved to be his downfall in the pros, and I would not be surprised to see it take a few weeks or so before this UCLA team really gets off the ground.


So not only are their drastic changes from a philosophical standpoint for this Bruins team, but handing over the reigns of the offense to sophomore QB Devon Modster might not be as smooth as expected either. This is also a situation where Kelly as inherited a program where he's done no recruiting in terms of the starters on the field, and if he becomes thick-headed like he was in the pros trying to force guys into doing things they aren't comfortable or even able to do, jamming those square pegs into round holes is going to equate to quite a few losses for UCLA early on.


Finally, with a huge game at Oklahoma on deck, chances are we see UCLA look past what was a bad Cincinnati team from a year ago. We've already seen some reverse line movement work in the Bearcats favor, but I'm not so sure an outright victory is completely out of the question either for Cincinnati.


Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range


Rice +25.5 vs Houston


Calling for an outright upset with any underdog of +20 points is probably a little too ambitious, but grabbing all these points with a home dog that's already dealt with those “first game jitters” and probably had one eye looking ahead to this showdown with Houston.


Rice didn't look good at all last week as they need a 12-0 scoreline in the 4th quarter to come back and beat a Prairie View A&M team that was catching 23 points that day. Rice's one dimensional attack with RB's Emmanuel Esukpa and Austin Walter carrying the ball a collective 43 times for 256 yards and 3 TD's started to get bogged down in the middle portion of that contest and at the same time Rice's defense had rough 2nd quarter as well.


However, Rice went into that second frame with a 13-0 lead and then made the mistake of thinking the final 45 minutes would continue to be a cakewalk. It took them some time to get things back in high gear, but they did it just in time, and now that focus that I'm sure was already partially on this Houston – a program that obliterated Rice (38-3) a year ago – can come to fruition in a game that should be much closer than a line like this suggests.


Conversely, Houston is a program that many are high on this year, but I am not sure I see it. A middle of the back finish in the AAC is likely the end result for this team, and when you look at the Cougars schedule, this game has the feel of being one of those dreaded “trap” games. Yes, having a trap game out of the gate isn't likely given that every player is amped up for the start of a new season, but with games against Arizona and Texas Tech the next two weeks for the Cougars, can you really blame them if they look past a Rice program that they beat up on last year and just watched struggle against an FCS team last week?


That's how I envision this game playing out and while it will end up being another SU loss for Rice in the end, it won't be by more than three TD's.

 

[Kaboom]

Always a solid read .... thanks for providing .... GL this year !!!

 

[svbettor]

This was a good read thank you.

---SV

 

[CNOTES]

Your welcome guys...........hope this helps with your capping...........Thankyou)(&

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, AUGUST 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


UCF at CONN 07:00 PM
CONN +24.0
O 70.0


NMSU at MINN 07:00 PM
NMSU +21.5
U 47.5

WAKE at TULN 08:00 PM
TULN +6.5
U 56.5


NW at PUR 08:00 PM
NW +1.0
O 53.0

 

[varkeyboy]

GL today, bossman!

 

[CNOTES]

UCF wins14th straight, routs UConn
August 30, 2018


EAST HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) No. 21 UCF has a new coaching staff - and an offense that looks very similar to the one that helped the Knights go undefeated season a year ago.


McKenzie Milton threw for 346 yards and tied a career high with five touchdowns as the self-proclaimed defending national champions routed UConn 56-17 on Thursday night to extend the longest winning streak in the nation to 14 games.


The reigning American Athletic Conference offensive player of the year completed 24 of 32 passes and ran for another 50 yards on seven carries. Sophomore receiver Tre Nixon, a transfer from Mississippi, caught five passes for 101 yards and scored on plays of 34 and 11 yards.


Backup quarterback Darriel Mack Jr. came on in the fourth quarter and broke a 70-yard touchdown run down the left sideline, making him the team's leading rusher.


It was the first game for coach Josh Heupel, who took the reins after Scott Frost left for Nebraska.


''I don't know if we're going to miss a beat,'' Milton said. ''The schematics are a little different, but we're going to score a lot of points no matter what.''


UConn quarterback David Pindell was a bright spot for the Huskies, throwing for 266 yards and a touchdown and running for another 157 yards and a score.


But the Huskies had 30 freshmen and sophomores on their two-deep, and more than a dozen players saw their first live-game action on Thursday night.


''I thought we had some young men who played a bit tentative for their first time and just didn't let it go,'' coach Randy Edsall said. ''Now they understand how hard it is''


THE TAKEAWAY


UCF: Heupel's fast-paced offense is as advertised, putting up 652 yards and scoring eight touchdowns on 11 drives, with each scoring drive taking less than 3 minutes off the clock.


''I'm a big fan of coach Huep's system,'' Milton said. ''I think it exposes defenses and I think it's going to be very good for UCF.''


UConn: The Huskies seem to have found their quarterback in Pindell. In addition to completing 27 of 41 passes and running 22 times, he had another 50-yard touchdown run called back because of a holding penalty. The Huskies put up 486 yards of offense.


''We made some big plays on offense and we pushed the ball a lot,'' Pindell said. ''We just have to execute in the red zone and the tight red. That's the biggest thing.''


INJURY


The game was marred by what appeared to be a serious injury to UCF defensive back Aaron Robinson on the opening kickoff.


The sophomore transfer from Alabama appeared to collide head-first with another UCF player while making the tackle. He had to be cut from his shoulder and was taken off the field on a stretcher, giving the crowd the thumbs-up sign as he was wheeled to an ambulance. Heupel said Robinson is expected to be fine, but will be kept overnight at a local hospital for observation.


EFFICIENCY


UCF was 9 of 11 on third down and converted its only attempt on fourth down. The Knights had touchdown drives of 61, 81, 76, 74, 65, 73, and two of 90 yards all while having the ball for less than 22 minutes


FIRST GAME


Heupel said he felt surprisingly calm in his first game as a head coach. The team gave him a game ball in the locker room.


''You work for eight months for something and you want it to bear good fruit and tonight it did,'' he said.


POLL IMPLICATIONS


Despite opening with a conference win on the road, UCF's poll position likely will only be impacted by losses higher up in the rankings.


UP NEXT:


UCF: The Knights head back to Orlando for their home opener next Saturday against South Carolina State.


UConn: The Huskies face another ranked team when they travel to Idaho to take on No. 22 Boise State on the blue turf.




**************************




Minnesota routs New Mexico St. 48-10
August 30, 2018


MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Zack Annexstad was less than one quarter into his debut for Minnesota when he lost a fumble deep in his own territory.


The brief sideline conversation afterward assured coach P.J. Fleck yet again that the true freshman walk-on quarterback has the confidence for the job.


''He puts his hand on my shoulder and says, `I think we're going to be all right,''' Fleck said. ''Usually it's me telling people, `Hey, you're going to be OK.' That's his personality. It's different, and I like it.''


Annexstad threw two touchdown passes to Tyler Johnson, and Minnesota opened the season by overwhelming New Mexico State in a 48-10 victory on Thursday.


Antoine Winfield Jr. pitched in the first punt return for a score by the Gophers in five years, a 76-yard zigzag through an Aggies coverage unit that missed six tackles during the play. Winfield, a third-year sophomore safety, had the third of four straight touchdowns for Minnesota in the second quarter.


''He's one of our best defensive players, but now when you look at him you're sitting there going, `OK, what else could we do with this guy on offense?''' said Fleck, who ordered the punt returner experiment with Winfield in spring practice.


Backup wide receiver Seth Green scored twice on direct snaps inside the 10-yard line, a clever twist from offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca that punctuated a 522-yard performance by the Gophers. Green is also the third-string quarterback.


''He's so big. He's so strong. He's so athletic,'' Fleck said.


Rodney Smith rushed 24 times for 153 yards, lightening the load on Annexstad in just the second time in major college football history that a true freshman walk-on quarterback started a season opener.


According to Minnesota's research, Baker Mayfield was the only other one for Texas Tech in 2013. The last true freshman quarterback to start a season for the Gophers was Tim Salem in 1980. Adam Weber, the program's all-time leading passer, was a redshirt freshman when he took over the job in 2007.


Annexstad completed 16 of 33 passes for 220 yards and no interceptions, before yielding to backup Tanner Morgan midway through the fourth quarter. After the botched shotgun snap that was recovered by Aggies linebacker Terrill Hanks at the 12-yard line, Matt Romero connected with Izaiah Lottie two plays later for the tying touchdown. Dylan Brown kicked a 45-yard field goal on the next drive to give New Mexico State a short-lived lead, before Annexstad and Smith took the Gophers 75 yards in seven plays on the ensuing possession.


''We got in a groove,'' Smith said. ''The offensive line picked up a little bit, and I'm proud of those guys up front.''


HANG ON


Romero finished 29 of 58 for 233 yards passing and one interception, a diving catch by linebacker Thomas Barber after one of several mishandled balls by Aggies receivers. Romero, a junior college transfer, made his debut on Saturday during a 29-7 defeat by Wyoming in an unusually early start to the schedule.


''Really, he was sharp tonight,'' Aggies coach Doug Martin said. ''We had 15 dropped passes, so that's hard to overcome for any quarterback. He didn't get much help, but had we caught those balls, I mean, he was looking at a 400-yard passing night.''


THE TAKEAWAY


New Mexico State: The Aggies capped 2017 with the program's first bowl game win since 1960, but they're the only FBS team to start 2018 without its leading passer, rusher, receiver and tackler from the previous season. The Aggies have allowed an astounding 607 rushing yards over their first two games, a sure sign that this will be a rebuilding project in Martin's sixth season. Their net rushing total on offense, too, is just 29 yards.


Minnesota: Annexstad will face much more daunting defenses this season, but this was exactly the way the Gophers needed their rookie quarterback to start. Demry Croft, who transferred to Tennessee State, totaled 262 passing yards over the final four games last season, and the Gophers didn't have a touchdown pass over the last five games. Annexstad had two of them before halftime.


''I just went up to him and told him, `Keep balling. This is only a start,''' said Johnson, who had five catches for 100 yards.


UP NEXT


New Mexico State visits Utah State on Sept. 8, a rematch of the Arizona Bowl game from last season. The Aggies are playing an independent schedule after a four-year appearance in the Sun Belt Conference ended.


Minnesota hosts Fresno State on Sept. 8, a game that ought to give the Gophers a truer nonconference test. The Bulldogs finished 10-4 last season, reaching the Mountain West Conference championship game and beating Houston in the Hawaii Bowl. Fresno State opens with Idaho on Saturday.




*********************




Wake Forest survives to beat Tulane 23-17 in OT
August 30, 2018


NEW ORLEANS (AP) Wake Forest freshman Sam Hartman passed for 378 yards and two touchdowns in his collegiate debut, Cade Carney powered in for a short TD in overtime, and the Demon Deacons defeated Tulane 23-17 on Thursday night.


''Sam was so poised,'' Carney said. ''Of course, he made some rookie mistakes, like you do, but the way he played overall - super proud of him.


''They were going to dare him to throw the ball, and he threw some dimes.''


Jonathan Banks connected with Terren Encalade for touchdown passes of 52 and 74 yards for Tulane, which had the ball on the edge of game-winning field goal range in the last minute of regulation before stalling after a false-start penalty.


Tulane's Peter Woullard was flagged for a personal foul when the Green Wave began overtime with the ball. Tulane turned the ball over on downs soon after, setting up Wake Forest's winning score.


''This one stings, no doubt about it. But it's the first of a 12-game season,'' third-year Tulane coach Willie Fritz said. ''We had some momentum going in the second half, but we shot ourselves in the foot with a couple of penalties. You saw a lot of first-game mistakes by both squads. Unfortunately, they made one more play than us.''


Alex Bachman caught both of Hartman's first two touchdown passes, which went for 10 and 19 yards. Sage Surrratt had 11 catches for 150 yards and Greg Dortch caught 12 passes for 149 yards.


Hartman was starting the opener because projected starter Kendall Hinton was suspended three games for an unspecified violation of team rules. The Demon Deacons also had their starting tight end sent off the field within the first five minutes of the game when his hit to the head of Tulane returner Jacob Robertson was ruled a targeting foul.


Hartman wound up with a promising performance in a victory, but it was by no means mistake free. He finished 31 of 51 and threw two interceptions, the second of which could have cost Wake Forest the game.


The Demon Deacons were threatening to take a two-score lead when Hartman attempted a desperate, underhanded pass in an effort to avoid being sacked by Tulane's Tirise Barge. The ball went straight to linebacker Larry Graham for an interception.


Banks scrambled twice for first downs during the game-tying drive, once up the middle for 17 yards on third-and-5 and later scrambling 15 yards on fourth-and-11 from the Wake Forest 37.


That set up Merek Glover's career-long 39-yard field goal to tie it at 17 with 3:53 left.


Banks finished 18 of 37 for 281 yards, but constantly found himself spinning and scrambling away from pressure. He was sacked three times and often had to throw the ball away. Even his first TD pass to Encalade came after he was forced to scramble to his right and lofted a deep ball down the sideline.


The Green Wave repeatedly squandered good field position, punting seven times from Wake Forest's side of midfield. Tulane never ran a play from inside the Wake Forest 22.

THE TAKEAWAY


Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons saw that Hartman can play well with protection and could become a prolific passer. Yet, as expected with young players, he struggled to maintain composure and made some regrettable decisions when defenders were able to get pressure in the backfield.


Tulane: The Green Wave can be encouraged by its ability to compete in the American Athletic Conference and vie for a bowl bid after taking a power-conference team to overtime in its opener. But Tulane will be disappointed it squandered chances to take a statement victory.


UP NEXT


Wake Forest: Hosts Towson of the second-tier FCS in its home opener on Sept. 8.


Tulane: Hosts FCS program Nicholls State on Sept. 8.




************************




Larkin helps Northwestern extend streak with win at Purdue
August 30, 2018


WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (AP) Jeremy Larkin ran for a career-high 143 yards and scored two touchdowns in his first game as Northwestern's feature back and the Wildcats' sealed Thursday night's 31-27 victory at Purdue by running off the final 7 minutes, 57 seconds.


Northwestern won its ninth straight overall and ninth straight in Big Ten play - matching the school's longest streak since the 1995 Rose Bowl season. The Wildcats still have the longest active streak among Power Five teams, too.


Purdue's three-game winning streak ended with its third opening-day loss in four years.


This one spoiled a record-breaking night for freshman receiver Rondale Moore, who had 313 all-purpose yards to break Otis Armstrong's school record of 312 in 1972. Moore had 302 yards including a 32-yard TD catch and a 76-yard run for Purdue in the first half of his college debut.


The Wildcats started fast and closed it out with a first down on a personal foul call against Lorenzo Neal with 2:31 left and the Boilermakers out of timeouts.


Larkin spent last season backing up Justin Jackson, the school's career rushing leader, but proved he could be a workhorse. Larkin carried 26 times and produced his second career 100-yard game.


The game also marked the return of Thorson, just about nine months after he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee.


It was a wild first half.


Northwestern took a 14-0 lead with a 1-yard TD run from Larkin and a 2-yard run from John Moten IV on its first two possessions. And after breaking a 14-14 tie with Charlie Kuhbander's 34-yard field goal, it converted two of Elijah Sindelar's three interceptions into scores.


Quarterback TJ Green capped the first one with 1-yard TD plunge and Larkin scored on a 4-yard run with 37 seconds left in the half to give Northwestern a 31-17 lead.


But after D.J. Knox broke off a 45-yard run on Purdue's first play of the third quarter, things slowed. Knox capped the drive with a 2-yard TD run, and Spencer Evans made a 27-yard field goal to make it 31-27 just 4 seconds into the fourth quarter to close out the scoring.

THE TAKEAWAY


Northwestern: The Wildcats needed a change after slow starts the past two seasons. The win could help them emerge as a contender in the Big Ten West.


Purdue: The Boilermakers made too many mistakes in the first half and failed to finish with the flurry they needed. Sindelar was benched after his third pick and a home loss certainly won't help their momentum.


UP NEXT


Northwestern: Faces Duke in its home opener on Sept. 8.


Purdue: Hosts Eastern Michigan on Sept. 8.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAA FB 08/31/2018


Team Open Line Movements Current Moneyline Halftime Scores


7:00 PM EDT
141 UTAH STATE 50.5 51.5 / 51.5u13 / 51 50.5 +1111
142 MICHIGAN STATE -25 -22.5 / -23 / -23.5 -23 -1771
TV: BTN, DTV: 610


6:00 PM EDT
143 SYRACUSE -6 -4.5 / -5 / -5 -09 -4.5 -200
144 WESTERN MICHIGAN 64 65o16 / 66 / 65.5 65 +170
Time-change to 06:00pm EDT | TV: CBSC, DTV: 221


9:00 PM EDT
145 WESTERN KENTUCKY 51 51.5 / 52 / 52.5o12 52.5
146 WISCONSIN -32.5 -35.5 / -35.5 -15 / -36 -36.5
Time-change to 09:00pm EDT | TV: ESPN, DTV: 206


9:30 PM EDT
147 COLORADO STATE 61.5 61.5 / 65 65.5 +230
148 COLORADO -6 -06 -7 -24 / -7.5 -05 / -7.5 -06 -7.5 -05 -280
COS-QB-Colin Hill-OUT | TV: CBSC, DTV: 221


9:00 PM EDT
149 SAN DIEGO STATE 53 53 / 48.5 / 48.5o11 48.5 +410
150 STANFORD -15.5 -15 / -14.5 / -14 -13.5 -540
Time-change to 09:00pm EDT | TV: FS-1, DTV: 219


7:00 PM EDT
159 ARMY 48 45 / 45o14 / 45 45.5 +447
160 DUKE -11 -12.5 / -13.5 / -13.5 -11 -14 -600
Date/Time change to 08/31/18 07:00:00pm EDT | TV: ESPNU, DTV: 208




***********************




COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS AUG-SEPT.


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


08/30/2018 5-3-0 62.50% +8.50
08/25/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00


TOTAL..............9-3-0.........75.00%.....+28.50






BEST BETS ATS AND O/U


08/30/2018..................2 - 1..............+4.50...................2 -1...............+4.50...............4 - 2.........+9.00
08/25/2018..................2 - 0..............+10.00.................2 - 0..............+10.00..............4 - 0........+20.00


TOTAL..........................4 - 1..............+14.50.................4 - 1..............+14.50..............8 - 2.........+29.00

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Best Bet
August 30, 2018
By BetDSI




College Football Best Bet – Friday Action


As anticipation grows for the first full week of college football action to get going tonight, I'm shifting my focus to Friday's action as there are a few more games to break down. Three programs starting the year ranked in the Top 25 are double-digit home chalk on Friday evening (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Stanford), and we even get to see one of the first solid in-state rivalry games between Colorado State and Colorado.


These games serve as a great weekend appetizer for the first full slate of Saturday games, but there is one contest that sticks out to me in particular, so let's get right to the breakdown.


Odds: Utah State vs #11 Michigan State (-23.5); Total set at 50.5


Michigan State is always a program that has lofty expectations coming into a new campaign, and with the #11 rank entering the year, expectations are even a little higher than they have been the past few years. Finishing off 2017 with a 10-3 SU record sparked those lofty expectations for 2018, and a favorable conference schedule in a loaded Big 10 East division (the Spartans host Michigan and Ohio State this year) does make the path to a potential College Football Playoff appearance a little “easier” for Michigan State.


It's not going to be easy by any means with Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State as division rivals, but it's always better to have the majority of your toughest games at home.


Oddsmakers expect Michigan State's first contest of 2018 to end up being as easy win though as they are laying about three TD's and a FG against a Utah State team that is hoping for an improvement themselves. The Aggies went 6-7 SU last year after losing in OT in their Bowl game, but starting out on the road in Big 10 country is nothing new to them after last year began with a road trip to Wisconsin. That game didn't turn out well for Utah State (59-10 loss), but with nine returning starters on offense – including the majority of them being juniors or seniors – this is a team that could end up making a lot of noise in the Mountain West Conference.


Utah State wants to make some noise right from the get-go though and they did see some very early initial support here when the line opened up around -25 back in late July. But given how badly there defense was shredded against Wisconsin a year ago – and Michigan State's attack is cut from a similar cloth – taking the points with the Aggies is not something I'm looking to do here. Instead, I'm looking at this total and see a number that's probably a little too low and too heavily based on reputation more than anything.


Michigan State has always been a solid defense squad under Mark Dantonio and it's that reputation that has this number still sitting below a key number of 51. Betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com currently show nearly 80% of the action coming in on the 'under' based off Michigan State's defensive reputation, but even with all that action, the number has barely moved.


Yes, it's flipped around 49 through as high as 52 in recent weeks, but it's held steady for the majority of this week and that's when the bulk of the action has come in. Majority 'unders' are bets I always look to run away from because it's such a difference from the norm (typically the majority of action comes in on favorites and 'overs') and this contest seems to fit right in line with that train of thought.


Michigan State's massive improvement a year ago (were 3-9 SU in 2016) was due in large part to the play of QB Brian Lewerke taking that next step and becoming a bonafide weapon at this level. Teams could stack the box to solely focus on RB LJ Scott anymore (who is back for his senior season in 2018) and Lewerke too full advantage of those 'soft' looks in the passing game. The Spartans actually ranked 35th in the country in points per possession last year, so maybe it's time we start to think of this team as a more offensive-minded one that can slug it out defensively in Big 10 play when they need to.


The Spartans aren't going to need that defense to be lights out against Utah State this week, as they'll look to put the game in Lewerke and the offense's hands early and then basically cruise to the finish line after a double-digit lead's been established. Considering Wisconsin hung nearly 60 points on this Utah State defense a year ago, there's no reason to think Michigan State can't threaten the 40-point number.


Which leaves us with the Aggies needing to pull their weight only to the tune of about 10-14 points here and that should be easily attainable as well. Michigan State isn't out to put their best defensive looks out on film in Game 1 for rivals to study if they don't have too, so a soft shell defensive scheme should suffice enough for the Spartans to get the win.


That means that garbage time scores by Utah State are always a possibility, and it's not like they aren't capable of scoring in bunches as six of their 13 games a year ago saw the Aggies score 30+ points. Obviously those all came against much weaker competition than what Michigan State will bring, but we aren't asking Utah State to threaten 30 points here, two TD's and a FG will likely be more than enough to push this one 'over' the number.


Finally, if this game does turn out to be a lot closer than expected, well then, Utah State is likely having a strong offensive day and putting up even more than 14-17 points. Their defense is not going to be able to do anything but slow the Spartans down for the majority of this one, and you need both sides to play well defensively to cash any 'under' ticket. I don't believe the near 80% of bettors already on the 'under' in this game realize that, as they are confident in Michigan State's defense to not allow more than 10 points.


Yet, a 42-10 game in favor of Sparty could just as easily happen if that's the case, and we don't have to look any further than the 59-10 drubbing Wisconsin put on this Aggies team a year ago. That total closed at 52 as many followed a similar line of thought in thinking it would be an easy 'under' due to Wisconsin's superior defense, but the two teams simply needed to combine for five points in the final frame (Wisconsin ended up scoring 21) to cash that 'over' ticket. I see this year's trip to Big 10 country for Utah State playing out in a similar fashion as we get 55+ points scored.


Best Bet: Over 50.5 points

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 1
August 30, 2018
By BetDSI


CFB Week 1 Total Talk


The excitement is palpable in the sports betting world with regular season football finally back in the mix and now that Week 1 of the college football season is here and lines on these games have been up for weeks, it never hurts to step back and take a full assessment of the betting board. And while many focus on the point spreads in that regard, it's often the totals – especially in college football – that see the most volatility each week in terms of movement.


That definitely shows up in Week 1 given how long the lines have been posted, but each week you'll see CFB totals make significant moves the closer you get to kick-off.


So with that in mind, let's take a look at some of the biggest movers in the totals for Saturday's full slate of CFB games , as there are some pretty significant moves to discuss.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Biggest Movers to the 'Over'


Cincinnati vs UCLA: Open: 59 – Current: 64.5
Louisville vs Alabama: Open: 55.5 – Current: 62.5


Here we've got a couple of games featuring big name schools getting plenty of love for the high side, and while those opening numbers are from a few weeks back (August 13th), we've still seen the UCLA total move up from 61.5 to 64.5 and the Alabama total move from 59.5 to 62.5 this week alone. Those are some pretty significant jumps, especially when the betting percentage numbers offered currently at VegasInsider.com show only 65% and 52% 'over' action respectively.


As intriguing as it may be to follow those moves, you've also got to keep in mind the possibility of these numbers being possible “set-ups” for more action right before kick-off. Wager limits tend to increase as the week goes on, so it doesn't take a lot of money bet early in the week to see a number make a significant jump.


The Louisville/Alabama game comes to mind as a strong candidate for that possibility given that the Cardinals are moving on without QB Lamar Jackson this year and Alabama's defense is always one of the best in the country. Alabama rarely likes to run up scores against opponents in the 2nd half of blowouts, and the conservative approach they use to preserve health – ie run the ball into the ground to shorten the game – is something that's not exactly ideal for taking an 'over' on a number that may be at or near it's peak.


So, of the two games, don't be surprised to see some buyback on the 'under' in that Alabama game, and if that's the side you're already leaning on, it's probably best to at least put some fractional number of your specific betting unit on the 'under' now. That's so if the number still continues to rise you can determine if you want to risk more, and if it drops, well you've already got some stake in the game at a solid number.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Biggest Movers to the 'Under'


Texas vs Maryland: Open: 56.5 – Current: 53


This is the only game really worth talking about here (although there are plenty others that have moved a full point or so) and it's not hard to see why the low side has been hit. Maryland's program has been under fire all off-season with the misconduct issues surrounding DJ Durkin, and it's hard to expect a team that's yet to name a starting QB for this game to really be confident and prepared in their attack.


On the flip side, Texas HC Tom Herman recently had his name dragged through the mud this week in relation to his past employment at Ohio State and everything that's going on with that school. However, the Longhorns players should be ready to ride a strong defense to whatever success they achieve in the Big 12 this year.


This move while seemingly large, really didn't pass through that many key numbers though (57 and 53 are important) as you can really only make an argument that 56/55.5 would have been the best of it for an 'under' play. The low side is getting about 65% of the action though and I believe some movement here has stopped because of Maryland's starting QB issue. In the end, it's probably best to sit back and see how both sides react and respond to whatever issues they've got surrounding the program, but if does drop even further, to below 51 say (another key number) it may be time to start looking the other way.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Best Total Bet for Week 1:


Akron/Nebraska Over 54.5


This is a game that should end up being an easy 1st win for new Nebraska HC Scott Frost as he tries to make his alma mater prominent in the world of collegiate football again. Frost comes over from a highly successful tenure as the head man at UCF and bettors should expect to see that uptempo, high-octane offensive mindset he had there transferred over to the Cornhuskers this year. Frost didn't necessarily recruit all the talent he's inherited, but it's not like he was getting 5-star recruits at UCF and look what he did there.


UCF averaged 48.2 points per game last year and while it's going to be impossible to reach that number playing in the Big 10 this year for Frost, Nebraska's new-look attack under him should look tremendous against this Akron squad. The Zips gave up 28 points per game a year ago, but their worst defensive performance of the year came in Week 1 at a Big 10 school when they lost 52-0 to Penn State. That wouldn't be enough to cash here, but Nebraska still has their short comings and I don't expect the Zips to get blanked.


Something like a 42-14 score sounds right about where this game should finish and it's my best total bet for the week.


Best Bet YTD Record: 0-0

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 1
August 30, 2018
By Bruce Marshall




FRIDAY, AUG. 31
Matchup Skinny Edge


UTAH STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Utags only 4-11 last 15 as dog (since mid 2015), 1-4 getting DDs past two seasons. Also no covers last six vs. non-MW away from Logan. After a couple of subpar spread seasons, MSU 5-2 vs. line as host LY, also 3-1 vs. line non-league. But only 2-5 vs. spread last seven as non-Big 10 home chalk.
Slight to Michigan State, based on Utag negatives.

SYRACUSE at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Cuse hasn’t been road chalk since before Babers arrived (back to 2014 in Shafer era). Babers only 1-4 as chalk overall last season, though Orange was 4-1 vs. line away (all damage done as DD dog). WMU 4-1 vs. line last five openers. Broncos 5-1-1 vs. line last seven vs. Power 5 conf foes (counts Cotton Bowl with Fleck after 2016 vs. Wiscy as push). Also 7-3-1 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-MAC (counts Wiscy as push; but 2-2 LY for Lester).
Western Michigan, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at WISCONSIN...WKU a big letdown LY in Sanford debut, just 4-9 vs. line (1-1 as DD dog). Also just 1-6 vs. spread away from home. Chryst 7-4 laying DD LY, 10-5-1 in role since 2016, 5-3 laying 20 or more past two years.
Wisconsin, based on recent WKU negatives.


COLORADO STATE vs. COLORADO (Friday, August 31 at Broncos Stadium, Denver)...MacIntyre is 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line against CSU since arriving at Buffs in 2013. CU 9-6-1 vs. spread non-Pac 12 for Coach Mac. Rams dropped last 7 vs. line in 2017, and CSU 3-8-1 vs. points last 12 vs. non-MW.
Colorado, based on series and team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at STANFORD...Rocky Long 6-2 as dog since 2015 and has won last three outright vs. Pac-12. Aztecs on 23-12 spread uptick into 2018. Tree 3-8 last 11 as Farm chalk, no covers last three on Farm as chalk vs. non-Pac 12. Shaw just 2-4 vs. line last six openers.
San Diego State, based on team trends.


ARMY at DUKE...Army 14-7-2 last 23 as dog, though Monken just 4-4-1 getting DDs since 2014. Army covered 4 of last 5 LY, also 12-7-2 last 21 vs. line away from Michie. Duke had won and covered two straight from Army prior to 21-16 loss LY at West Point. Cutcliffe, however, 14-3 as DD chalk since 2011, and enters 2018 on 40-23-2 spread uptick.
Slight to Duke, based on team trends.


SATURDAY, SEPT. 1
Matchup Skinny Edge


FAU at OKLAHOMA...Lane Kiffin 10-2-1 last 13 on board a year ago though only 1-1-1 as dog (all in non-conf play). Lincoln Riley 9-5 vs. spread in debut LY, 5-1 as Norman chalk, 5-3 overall as DD chalk.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at RICE...Bloomgren debut at Rice! LY was first meeting since 2013, and UH has won and covered last four meetings (last Rice win 2008). Owls only 3-6 last nine as home dog in Bailiff years, and just 2-7 as DD dog LY. Applewhite, however, only 1-3 as road chalk LY (though this is not much of a road trip across town), and Cougs just 2-8 vs. spread last ten away from TDECU Stadium.
Slight to Houston, based on series trends.

OREGON STATE at OHIO STATE... Jonathan Smith debut for Beavs! OSU only 3-8-1 vs. line LY and 1-4-1 as road dog (though not-so-bad 3-3 as DD dog). Buckeyes only 8-13 as Big Horseshoe chalk since 2015, and 3-6 laying 30 or more than span (though 0-4 of that in 2015). Buckeyes are 6-3 vs. spread last 9 vs non-Big 10.
Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.


APP STATE at PENN STATE...James Franklin 2-2 vs. line in Penn State openers, and 8-5 laying DD the past two seasons. Also 7-5 last 12 vs. spread against non-conf foes. App sagged to 1-5 vs. line as visitor LY after 9-3 spread mark away previous two years. Mounties 2-4 as DD dog since 2014.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.


AKRON at NEBRASKA...Frost Huskers debut! Lots of hype for Frost though he was just 7-7-1 vs. spread his last 15 with Golden Knights (that counts no play in Cincy game LY). Only 3-4 laying DD LY but was 3-0 in role previous 2016. Zips however only 2-4 as road dog LY and just 6-8 vs. spread last 14 away from Infocision Stadium. Bowden also no covers last five vs. power 5 foes.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


UMASS at BOSTON COLLEGE...Addazio 6-3 as chalk the past two years and 4-1 laying DD that span. Eagles covered their last 9 in reg season LY and enter 2016 on 12-4 spread run. Minutemen however are 7-3 as DD dog the past two seasons.
Slight to Boston College, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at ILLINOIS...Lewis Golden Flashes debut! Kent hasn’t had a winning spread mark since 2012 and is 7-11 as DD dog since 2015. Kent is 3-3 vs. line against Power 5 past three seasons but was whipped 52-3 at Illini back in pre-Lovie 2015. Lovie however on 4-11 spread skid and is just 4-10 vs. spread at Champaign-Urbana since 2016. Illini 2-4 vs. spread non-Big Ten as well past two years.
Slight to Kent State, based on team trends.


TEXAS STATE at RUTGERS...Bobcats big mediocre for Everett Withers, just 5-7 v.s line each of past two seasons, though holding own 6-6 as road dog that span. Average losing margin last five vs. non-Belt FBS foes in 199 points (39.8 pg!). Not stepping up too well! ‘Gers was 8-4 vs. line LY and 1-0 laying DD (vs. lowly Morgan State).
Rutgers, based on team trends.


INDIANA at FIU...Rematch from 2016 won by IU 34-13 in opener. Hoosiers were 2-1 as road chalk LY (though 0-3 as road dog). IU won and covered meetings in both 2015 & ‘16, pre-Butch Davis at FIU. Hoosiers 5-1 vs. spread last six vs. non-Big Ten on road. Butch was 4-0 as home dog LY, though overall spread mark just 6-7.
Slight to Indiana, based on team and series trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA...NIU solid 10-3 as visiting dog since 2013 and has covered 6 of last 7 in reg season vs. Power 5 foes (not count bowl loss to Duke LY). Ferentz just 12-22-1 as Iowa City chalk since 2012, and 6-11 last 17 vs. line vs. non-Big 10 at Nile Kinnick Stadium.
Northern Illinois, based on team trends.


TEXAS vs. MARYLAND (at FedEx Field, Landover, MD)...Revenge for Tom Herman after 51-41 shock loss in opener LY. Horns did recover to cover 8 of next 12 and were 2-0 as road favorite last term. UT also covered last three vs. non-Big 12 LY. Terps dropped 6 of last 8 vs. line LY, and just 9-16 vs. spread past two seasons.
Texas, based on team trends.


BOISE STATE at TROY... Troy unfortunate not to get spread W out of that opener LY. But Trojans only 1-5 vs. line as host LY compared to covers last five away. Troy 6-1-1 as DD dog since 2015 (counts Boise LY as push). Broncos 11-5 as road chalk past three seasons but just 4-6 vs. spread last 10 non-MW.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


LA TECH at SOUTH ALABAMA...Campbell USA debut! Jags 8-16-1 vs. points at Mobile since 2014, just 17-32-1 vs. line the last four years of the Joey Jones regime. Skip 5-1 vs. spread away from Ruston LY and 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2016.
La Tech, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at MIAMI-OHIO...Herd recovered to 9-4 vs. line LY after bumpy 2016. Marshall 5-0 as dog away from home LY, and was 6-0 overall as dog in 2017. Meanwhile RedHawks just 2-5 vs. points last seven at Yager Stadium and no covers all four vs. non-MAC LY.
Marshall, based on team trends.


SMU at NORTH TEXAS...Dykes SMU debut (sort of, he was in place for bowl humiliation vs. La Tech LY). SMU just 1-4-1 vs. spread away from Dallas LY but did beat UNT 54-32 at Ford Stadium. Littrell 7-3 vs. line non-league for UNT past two years.
Slight to North Texas, based on team trends.


MTSU at VANDERBILT...Vandy has overpowered MTSU lately, won big last two and again in 2015. Dores 6-0 vs. spread against C-USA heavies Blue Raiders and WKU the past three years. Vandy 8-2 vs. spread last ten vs. non-SEC FBS opposition. Stockstill only 5-9-1 last 15 as dog.
Vanderbilt, based on series and team trends.


BYU at ARIZONA...Sumlin Cats debut! Sumlin covered openers the last four years at A&M and was 4-2 as chalk last season with Ags. Cougs 4-10 their last 14 on board for Sitake and 2-5 as dog LY.
Arizona, based on team trends.


UTSA at ARIZONA STATE...Herm ASU debut! Under Graham, Sun Devils just 2-6 vs. spread last eight non-Pac 12 at Tempe. But they were 11-4 vs. spread last 15 as host. Roadrunners dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line LY, but are 5-1 as DD dog under Wilson since 2016 and covered pretty handily at Alamodome vs. ASU in 2016.
Slight to Arizona State, based on team trends.


UNLV at USC...Sanchez has covered these Power 5 road games (at Mich, UCLA, Ohio State) each of past three years. Rebs 9-4 as dog since 2016 and Sanchez 11-4 as road dog since arriving in 2015. Trojans only 2-5 as Coliseum chalk LY and SC on 4-11 spread skid since late 2016. Also 1-6 as DD chalk LY and no covers last five vs. non-Pac 12.
UNLV, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at UCLA...Chip Bruins debut! With Ducks note Chip was just 1-3 vs. line in openers. His teams were 19-13-1 laying DD, however. Mora was awful in last few years at Rose Bowl, just 5-13 vs. spread since 2015, and just 1-7-1 last 9 vs. non-Pac 12. Cincy just 5-6 vs. spread in 2017 but Bearcats were 4-1 as road dog for Fickell LY.
Slight to Cincinnati, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON vs. AUBURN (at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta)...Huskies have failed to cover last four vs. non-Pac 12 BCS opposition. Petersen just 2-5 vs. spread since 2015 as dog. Malzahn, however, 0-6-1 vs. points last seven vs. non-SEC, and just 5-12-2 last 19 on board since late 2016.
Slight to Washington, based on recent Malzahn negatives.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at KENTUCKY...Chippies covered last five reg season LY (though all in MAC) before losing to Wyo in bowl. But no covers last six against non-MAC foes not named Kansas. Mark Stoops, however, 0-5 as Lexington chalk LY, 2-8 in role since 2016, and just 2-9 last 11 vs. number against non-SEC.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on UK negatives.


OLE MISS vs. TEXAS TECH (at NRG Stadium, Houston)...Rebs covered their last three away LY but are only 2-6 vs. spread against non-SEC past two seasons. Tech 5-2 vs. line last nine openers and 6-2-1 vs. number last 9 reg season vs. non-Big 12 foes.
Slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Coastal 3-1-1 as road dog LY and almost won SU at Arkansas. Muschamp 0-3 as DD chalk since 2016 and no covers last three as host vs. non-SEC.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA vs. TENNESSEE (at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)...Pruitt Vol debut! UT was 2-10 vs. spread for Butch LY and 7-17-1 past two seasons. Also 1-6-1 as road dog that span. Though WVU just 2-7 vs. spread last nine outside of Big 12.
Slight to West Virginia, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at CAL...Depleted Heels have failed to cover their opener the last five seasons. Also lost in one of those vs. Cal at Chapel Hill LY. UNC did cover its last four in 2017, however. UNC 6-9-1 vs. spread last 16 non-ACC. Wilcox 5-1 vs. line at Berkeley in 2017 debut, and Bears have covered 6 of last 7 at Strawberry Canyon since late 2016. Cal 7-2-1 vs. points last ten non-Pac 12 games.
California, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at WYOMING...Leach just 2-8 vs. spread last ten away from Pullman, and 6-10 last 16 vs. non-Pac 12. Bohl 8-2 last ten as Laramie dog and 19-8 overall as dog since 2015.
Wyoming, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at OREGON...Cristobal sort-of debut for Ducks (named before Las Vegas Bowl last December). Webfoots 4-2 laying DD LY after 0-8 mark in preceding two seasons. Also 4-1 as Eugene chalk in 2017. Jinks poor 7-17 vs. spread last two seasons with Falcs who were also 2-5 as DD dog in 2017.
Oregon, based on team trends.


OLD DOMINION at LIBERTY...ODU just 4-8 vs. line LY but Monarchs are 4-0 as visiting chalk the past two years.
Slight to Old Dominion, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at NOTRE DAME...Harbaugh just 7-13 last 20 vs. line since mid 2016. Mich has not faced Irish since 2014. If Kelly stays as a dog here note 10-5 mark last 15 as short.
Notre Dame, based on team trends.


LOUISVILLE vs. ALABAMA (at Camping World Stadium, Orlando)...Nick pretty good in these neutral-field openers, has won six straight, covering five. Bama 9-1 vs. line last ten openers. Petrino on 5-12 spread skid since late 2016.
Alabama, based on Saban opening-game trends.


NAVY at HAWAII...Not much home edge lately for Hawaii just 4-18-1 last 23 at Aloha Stadium (3-9-1 for Rolovich). Bows were 0-2-1 as DD dog LY. Mids 7-2 as visiting chalk since 2015 and 5-2 last seven as DD chalk.
Navy, based on team trends.


SUNDAY, SEPT. 2
Matchup Skinny Edge


MIAMI-FLA. vs. LSU (at Jerry Jones Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Orgeron was 3-0 as dog LY, and is a surprising 14-7 vs. spread since taking over LSU midway in 2016. Richt no covers last 4 or 7 of last 9 LY, Canes just 3-6 as chalk in 2017.
LSU, based on team trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 3
Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA TECH at FLORIDA STATE...Taggart FSU debut! VPI just 1-4 last 5 and 3-6 last 9 vs. line LY, also 0-2 as dog, though Fuente is 10-7 last 17 on board since late 2017. Noles no covers first nine LY. Taggart teams 11-2-1 as home chalk at USF & Oregon the past three seasons.
Slight to Florida State, based on Taggart marks.