Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Friday’s six-pack


— Chiefs 42, Patriots 27— Alex Smith played really well, going 28-35 for 365 yards, four TD’s.


— Kareem Hunt is first player since Billy Sims in 1980 to gain 180+ yards from scrimmage and score 3+ TD’s in his NFL debut.


— Chiefs had the ball up 21-17 with 7:10 to go in 3rd quarter; KC was still +$155 on the live line.


— Indians 11, White Sox 2— Cleveland has now won 15 games in a row.


— Rockies 9, Dodgers 1— Clayton Kershaw lasted only 3.2 innings, allowing four runs.


— Florida, Florida State, Miami, South Florida all cancelled their football games this weekend because of Hurricane Irma.


************************


Friday’s List of 13: NFL knowledge with the season here…….

13) Dallas Cowboys haven’t played in a Super Bowl since the 1995 season; Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger both won a Super Bowl in their second season- Dallas is hoping Dak Prescott gets a championship in his second season.


12) Roethlisberger has played all 16 games in only three of his 13 NFL seasons; he missed one game in four other seasons.


11) Teams who have rebuilt/are rebuilding their offensive lines:
— Vikings have four new starters on the offensive line.
— Broncos, Ravens, Chargers, Lions, Rams all have three new starters.


10) Indianapolis Colts have eight new starters on defense; their QB and center are both out to start this season.


9) Lot of people are touting the Buccaneers to be a playoff team this year; after watching Hard Knocks this summer, I wasn’t overly impressed by anything about them, other than coach Dirk Koetter is a very calm person. Even when he curses someone out, it is done quietly.


Koetter got the head coaching job because of how he’s helped Jameis Winston develop as a QB; would’ve liked to have seen some of that behind-the-scenes teaching on Hard Knocks.


8) Carolina Panthers lost six games by 3 or less points last year; teams like that often make a quantum leap forward if they get some breaks the next season, but Carolina was also 15-1 the year before, so maybe last year was the correction.


In any event. Cam Newton’s shoulder is the Panthers’ most important variable.


7) Do you think Bill Belichick will retire when Tom Brady does?


6) Oakland Raiders have five new starters on defense; Derek Carr has been terrific at QB as a Raider, but he is 1-5 against the Chiefs.


5) Minnesota QB Sam Bradford’s passes traveled an average of 6.24 yards in the air LY, the shortest average pass of any starting QB, which helps explain why he completed 70% of them.


Bradford’s best WR is Michael Floyd, who is suspended for the first four games this year.


4) Baltimore Ravens were 8-8 LY, losing three games they led with 2:30 to play; since June 1, Ravens have lost four starters for the season with injuries. Joe Flacco didn’t take a snap in the preseason games and they have three new starters on the OL. I’m a skeptic.


3) Arizona Cardinals have only five outdoor games this season; three of their road games are in domes. Cardinals also have six new starters on defense this season.


2) New Orleans Saints have been 7-9 the last three seasons; they’ve got six new starters on defense this year. Will they run the ball more this season to protect that defense, and aging QB Drew Brees? They’ve added Adrian Peterson, so it is a popular theory.


1) Last two years, Chargers are 7-17 in games decided by 8 or less points; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense and a rookie coach who hired two former head coaches as coordinators, which seems like a smart move.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday’s six-pack


Top six picks in the Week 1 of the Westgate SuperContest in Las Vegas:


6) Pittsburgh Steelers -8.5 , 706


5) Arizona Cardinals -2, 742


4) Atlanta Falcons -6.5, 819


3) Tennessee Titans -2.5, 839


2) Houston Texans -5, 863


1) Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, 866


****************************


Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….

13) Oklahoma 31, Ohio State 16— Buckeyes play Army, UNLV and Rutgers their next three games; going to be some serious butt-kicking going on there, after this showing in the second half.


Senior QB Mayfield was 27-35 for 386 yards and three TD’s for the Sooners, who outscored Ohio State 28-13 in the second half.


12) USC 42, Stanford 24— Trojans gained over 600 yards of offense; hope they left some points on that field for the Rams today. USC was 10-12 on third down, ran for 307 yards. Impressive.


11) Clemson 14, Auburn 6— Gus Malzahn won the national title at Auburn in 2013; since then, he is 24-17 on the Plains, 11-13 in SEC games. No bueno.


Gene Chizik won the national title at Auburn in 2010; he got fired two years later, after going 11-14 in 2011-12. My point here? Not a lot of patience at Auburn- they gained a total of 117 yards in this game. The natives are officially restless.


10) Iowa 44, Iowa State 41 OT— Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was South Carolina’s Mr Football in 2013; he went to Georgia, redshirted in 2014, then transferred to Trident Technical School, and then Northeasterm Oklahoma- he didn’t play ball at the those places.


He started three games at Iowa State last year; Saturday he completed 25-46 passes for 347 yards and four TD’s as the Cyclones lost in OT to their in-state rivals.


Iowa State’s starting QB for most of last year was Joel Lanning; he is now the Cyclones’ middle linebacker. You don’t see that a lot.


9) TCU 28, Arkansas 7— Horned Frogs ran the ball well and played solid defense. In its last three games against Power 5 opponents (Mizzou, Va Tech, TCU), the Razorbacks have scored zero second half points. No bueno.


Arkansas’ kicker missed 22 and 23-yard FG’s; TCU fumbled on the Arkansas 3-yard line.


8) Middle Tennessee 30, Syracuse 23— MTSU coach Rick Stockstill played QB at Florida State back in the day; his son Brent plays QB for the Blue Raiders now. Wonder what that is like, a coach needing to win to keep his job, and his most important player is his son. No pressure there.


The great basketball coach Al McGuire coached his son Allie at Marquette; when a point guard on the team complained that Allie was starting ahead of him, McGuire said: “I like you, but I LOVE my son.” End of discussion.


7) Indians 4, Orioles 2— Cleveland has outscored opponents 118-30 during its 17-game winning streak, 57-12 in the first three innings.


The A’s swept a doubleheader from Houston Saturday; I should’ve bought a lottery ticket.


6) Milwaukee Brewers’ pitcher Jimmy Nelson is out for the year; he hurt his shoulder diving head-first back into first base on a pickoff attempt Friday night. Oy.


5) Louisville 47, North Carolina 35— Lamar Jackson was 25-39 passing for 393 yards and three TD’s, and also ran for 132 yards and three TD’s, as the Tar Heels got beat at home for the second week in a row. Cardinals play Clemson next week- they gained 705 yards in this game.


4) Kent State 38, Howard 31— Cam Newton’s brother is Howard’s QB; he’s put up 74 points as the Bison split a pair of games against lower-level I-A programs. Not bad.


3) Georgia 20, Notre Dame 19— Dawgs had 12 penalties for 126 yards; teams combined to convert only 7-34 on third down, but this is a huge road win for Georgia, with a freshman QB.


2) Mississippi State 57, Louisiana Tech 21— Tech actually LOST 87 YARDS ON ONE PLAY late in this game!!! They wound up with 3rd-and-goal from their own 7-yard line, which has to be a record of some sort.


1) Next Saturday’s Miami-Florida State game was moved to October 7 because of the hurricane; Miami’s October 12 game was pushed back two days to the 14th.


Our thoughts-prayers to all the people affected by the storms. Please stay safe, though you’re probably not reading this anyway.

 

[CNOTES]

Gridiron Angles - Week 1
September 9, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:


-- The Bengals are 10-0-2 ATS (6.3 ppg) since Sep 23, 2012 if they are not dogs of more than three points when they are playing a team with the same record.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:


-- The Panthers are 0-6-1 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 2015 as a road favorite.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:


-- The Packers are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since Dec ember20, 2015 facing a team Jordy Nelson scored a touchdown against in their last meeting.


NFL ATS SYSTEM:


-- Teams in Week 1 which covered in no more than 1/3rd of their games last season are 55-33-1


-- ATS. Active on Cincinnati, Cleveland, San Francisco, LA Rams.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:


-- The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-10.4 ppg) since Oct 13, 2013 as a road favorite of at least three points in non-Monday night games.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:


-- The Eagles are 9-0-1 OU (7.6 ppg) since November 2015 on the road when less than a six-point dog.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 1
September 9, 2017


The 2017 NFL regular season kicked off this past Thursday as Kansas City stunned New England 42-27 and bettors riding the ‘over’ wound up cashing the “total trifecta” as the game and both the first and second halves went to the high side. The opening NFL game has now seen the ‘over’ cash the last two seasons and four of the last five.


Due to the Hurricane hitting Florida this weekend, the Dolphins-Buccaneers game was postponed and Week 1 now has 14 games remaining with 12 of them scheduled on Sunday before the double-header on Monday.


This will be the 10th season of “Total Talk” and accept my apologies if the first installment isn’t up to speed. For the many of you that don’t know, the VegasInsider.com headquarters are located in South Florida and we’ve been evacuated to safety – fortunately!


With that being said, hope you and yours are safe and let’s have a great season.

Line Moves


Listed below are the largest as of Saturday morning from the opening numbers that were first available in mid-April at BookMaker.eu. I lean to the major offshore outfit because their timeliness of posting early numbers is great and their overall volume is very well-known in the industry.


N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: 43 to 40
Jacksonville at Houston: 42 to 39 ½
Oakland at Tennessee: 51 ½ to 50 ½
Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47 ½ to 46 ½
Seattle at Green Bay: 49 to 50 ½
N.Y. Giants at Dallas: 49 to 47 ½


This season, we’re fortunate to lean on the man running the show behind the BookMaker.eu betting counter, Scott Cooley.


“We’ve seen pretty hefty support on the ‘under’ for the Jaguars-Texans total. The sharps fired at the 40s fairly early, and the public doesn’t have much interest in betting on a game with these two pedestrian teams,” said Cooley.


He added, “Another total we’re kind of crooked on is the Falcons-Bears game. The squares are offsetting somewhat with over bets, but the sharps have given us liability on the ‘under’ here.”


As mentioned above, the first nationally televised primetime game went ‘over’ on Thursday and Cooley is believing the public will carry that mantra into Sunday’s finale.


Cooley explained, “I think we’ll see that SNF total continue to escalate. It’s a marquee matchup and the public bettors will pound that over because they want to see fireworks.”


Week 1 Trends to Watch


The opening week is never an easy handicap but there are some solid opening game trends that you should check out for Week 1.


New Orleans Saints:Over 5-1 last six. The club is also 1-5 during this stretch, allowing 31, 37, 40, 42 and 35 in the defeats. To be fair, they have faced some juggernauts during this stretch including the Falcons twice, Packers and Raiders.


Buffalo Bills:Under 4-0 last four. Say what you want about former coach Rex Ryan, but the Bills only allowed 13 and 14 points in each of the last two openers.


Cincinnati Bengals:Over 6-1 last seven. The Bengals will meet the Ravens in Week 1 for the third time in the last five seasons. In the previous two, the outcomes finished 44-13 and 23-16.


Detroit Lions:Over 6-0 last five. Offense has scored 27, 27, 34, 25, 28 and 39 points the last six openers.


Green Bay Packers:Over 6-0. The defense has allowed 30-plus points in four of the six games during this span. Seattle visits on Sunday and the 'over' has gone 3-1 in the last four between this pair.


Divisional Matchups


We’ve got seven divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and two of them will be played in the national primetime spots on Sunday and Monday.


N.Y. Jets at Buffalo:The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five encounters between this pair but they did play to a 37-31 shootout last season in Buffalo. This is a tough game to handicap due to the lack of offensive talent on paper for the Jets, plus the Bills are starting over again under rookie head coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo was a great ‘over’ bet (12-4) last season but you have to wonder if that trend tempers off this fall.


Jacksonville at Houston:This matchup could will likely have the lowest closing total posted in Week 1. As of Saturday, the majority of betting shops are holding 39 ½ and bettors should note that the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five games in this series. However, the pair have only posted a combined 42.6 points per game during this stretch.


Philadelphia at Washington:The ‘over’ went 2-0 in the two regular season meetings last year and the high side is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Washington scored exactly 27 points in both contests last season, both wins, and that’s the number they’re averaging (27.7 PPG) in the last 10 versus the Birds. The Eagles were lit up defensively on the road (25.9 PPG) last season and that led to a 6-1-1 ‘over’ mark. Philadelphia did add some offensive weapons in the offseason and it has been flip-flopped to the favorite for this game.


Baltimore at Cincinnati:These teams played to a pair of ugly games last season (19-14, 27-10) and the ‘under’ connected in both matchups. Both clubs have solid defensive units and the Bengals held teams to 16.7 PPG at home last season. Ravens QB Joe Flacco is expected to start after sitting out the entire preseason with back injury. The Bengals defense was great at home (16.7 PPG) last season but this unit will be missing LB Vontaze Burfict and CB Adam Jones to suspension on Sunday.


Pittsburgh at Cleveland:This total is hovering between 46 and 47 on Sunday and the highest closing total between these teams in the last 30 meetings was 47, which tells you the oddsmakers are expecting some points. I can see the argument for Pittsburgh’s attack, which has a ton of playmakers but making the case for the Browns isn’t easy. Cleveland had the second worst scoring offense (16.5 PPG) and they couldn’t do any damage in the second-half (6.1 PPG). Rookie QB DeShone Kizer will get the start for the Browns and these young quarterbacks haven’t been terrible (Prescott, Mariota, Winston) in their openers recently but certainly not super.


Dallas at N.Y. GiantsSee Below)


L.A. Chargers at DenverSee Below)

Under the Lights


N.Y. Giants at Dallas:The ‘under’ cashed in both games last season as the Giants captured a pair of victories (20-19, 10-7) over the Cowboys. Prior to those outcomes, the ‘over’ had connected in the previous seven encounters. New York couldn’t score consistently last season (19 PPG) and that production helped the ‘under’ go 12-4. The Giants also boasted the fourth-best scoring defense (18.9 PPG) in 2016. Dallas put some points on the board last season (26.6 PPG) but they still leaned to the ‘under’ (10-6). Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) is ‘questionable’ for the Giants while the Cowboys will have RB Ezekiel Elliot ready to go. As our friends at BookMaker.eu mentioned above, these SNF games are ‘chaser’ games and the public usually leans high.


New Orleans at Minnesota:This matchup is your classic offense vs. defense and the total (48) is clearly based on the perception of the Saints, a team that can score in bunches and give up just as many in return. The highest total Minnesota had in a home game last season was 44, which happened twice. The Vikings only allowed 18 PPG at U.S. Bank Stadium last season and the offense (22.1 PPG) wasn’t exactly a juggernaut. The Saints did see their offense temper a bit on the road (27.6 PPG) and some pundits believe they’ll run a bit more this season, especially since they acquired former Viking Adrian Peterson.


L.A. Chargers at Denver: If you like to use trends in your handicapping, then check this out. In the last three seasons, all three games played at Mile High went ‘over’ the number while the three contests in San Diego went to the low side. Will that run continue on Monday? Since QB Peyton Manning left town, the Denver offense has been mediocre at best yet the defense remains the nucleus of the club. Whichever way you lean, I believe you’re going to sweat 60 minutes for this result. The total is hovering around 43 and I’m guessing it ends up close to that neighborhood.


Fearless Predictions


It’s been a long offseason but hopefully over the next 21 weeks, we can turn a profit. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Best Over: Indianapolis-Los Angeles 41


Best Under: New York-Buffalo 40


Best Team Total: Over Detroit 23.5


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Under 57 ½ Atlanta-Chicago
Over 33 Baltimore-Cincinnati
Over 33 Indianapolis-Los Angeles

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Rams DT Donald ends holdout
September 9, 2017


Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald ended his holdout on Saturday by reporting to the team and passing a physical, the team announced.


Donald has not received a new contract, although the sides are working to "reach a solution" on an extension, the team said. The 26-year-old is not expected to play in Sunday's season-opening game against the Indianapolis Colts. Rookie Tanzel Smart will take Donald's spot in the starting 3-4 scheme.


Donald has been absent throughout training camp and the preseason. Had he failed to report before Sunday's game, Donald was in line to lose one game check from a contract that pays him a base salary of $1.8 million.


The 6-foot-1, 280-pound Donald has been a Pro Bowl selection in each of his three NFL seasons, playing all 48 games. In 2016, he started all 16 games and recorded 47 tackles, eight sacks, five passes defensed and two forced fumbles.


--Oakland Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski was placed on injured reserve with a herniated disk in his back.


Janikowski, the longest-tenured player on the team, was replaced on Oakland's 53-man active roster by Giorgio Tavecchio, who spent the past four preseasons with the team.


Janikowski, 39, reworked his contract last week to remain with the Raiders and the back injury is not a revelation to team management. He missed the final two preseason games with back soreness.


The 17th overall pick of the Raiders in the 2000 NFL Draft, Janikowski has played 268 games with Oakland -- the most in franchise history. Tavecchio made 9 of 11 field-goal attempts with the Raiders during his solely preseason tenure with the team.


--The Pittsburgh Steelers signed defensive end Stephon Tuitt to an extension through the 2022 season, the team announced.


The new six-year deal is worth $61 million, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter.


Tuitt, 24, was set to make just over $1 million in base salary in 2017, the final year of his rookie contract. He would have been a free agent in 2018.


The 6-foot-6, 303-pound Tuitt, a second-round pick in 2014 out of Notre Dame, owns 108 tackles, 11.5 sacks, four pass defenses, three forced fumbles and one interception over 44 games in three seasons.


--Chicago Bears defensive end Akiem Hicks signed a four-year, $48 million contract extension with $30 million guaranteed, multiple outlets reported.


Hicks, who is now under contract with the Bears through the 2021 season, signed a two-year, $10 million deal in 2016. The 27-year-old recorded a career-high seven sacks to go along with 54 tackles while starting all 16 games last season.


Hicks was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after collecting 13 tackles, two sacks and one forced fumble versus the San Francisco 49ers.


Chicago now has four of its front seven starters signed through at least 2020, including Leonard Floyd, Pernell McPhee and Danny Trevathan.


--The New Orleans Saints moved quickly to find a replacement for long snapper Jon Dorenbos, who will require open heart surgery to repair an aortic aneurysm.


The Saints signed defensive lineman/long snapper Zach Wood to a contract after the team placed Dorenbos on the non-football illness list Friday with a heart condition discovered in a follow-up physical following his trade from the Philadelphia Eagles.


Wood's agent, Mike Abadir, confirmed Wood's signing and offered congratulations on Twitter on Friday night: "Congrats to my client LS ZachWood6 for signing w the Saints! At the same time, prayers go out to multi-talented JonDorenbos. #JonDorenbos."


The 6-foot-3, 255-pound Wood entered the league in 2016 as an undrafted free agent out of SMU. Wood, 24, signed with the Dallas Cowboys after a successful tryout in rookie minicamp that year and spent time with the team the past two offseasons both as a long snapper and defensive lineman.


--The Indianapolis Colts waived running back Matt Jones after one week and elevated guard Adam Redmond to the 53-man roster from the practice squad.


The 6-foot-2, 239-pound Jones was claimed by Indianapolis off waivers last Sunday after being cut by the Washington Redskins.


The 24-year-old Jones, a third-round pick in 2015, lost his starting job in Washington last season. He played in 20 career games (seven starts) for the Redskins, with 243 carries for 950 yards and six touchdowns. He caught 27 passes for 377 yards and one TD. He also fumbled eight times with the Redskins, losing six.


The Colts are set at running back with Frank Gore, Robert Turbin and rookie Marlon Mack heading into Sunday's season opener against the Los Angeles Rams.

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 1
September 8, 2017

After getting slapped around by the public for most of the 2016 NFL season, Las Vegas sports books got off to a great 2017 start in Thursday night's kickoff game when the Kansas City Chiefs used a 21-0 fourth-quarter to win 42-27 at the New England Patriots.


"We did quite well last night, but most of it came from all the Patriots teasers and parlays," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They (public) have to re-work all their weekend plays again because most were keyed with the Patriots (-9). Not only did we get the game to go our way, but we also almost swept the board in baseball."


However, Simbal noted that the public has been savvy with the Dodgers all season whether riding them during win streaks or betting against them now as they've lost 12 of 13 heading into Friday's game. Thursday night it was the Padres beating -305 favorite Clayton Kershaw, 9-1.


So much for Thursday's popular Corey Kluber (-375), Patriots (-400) and Kershaw three-team parlay. The irony for the books is that the big savior on the day, the Patriots, were the team that gave them the most damage last season as the public rode them going 16-3 ATS, including the Patriots last eight games that concluded with a 6-point overtime win in the Super Bowl.


Perhaps things cycle around in 2017 for the sports books and it's the books that return to their usual winnings ways. Usually there are three or four big losing Sunday's during the season, but last year it seemed more like 11 or 12 weeks of getting beat up by popular NFL teams.


In Week 1 action, the Average Joe's have already let it be known loud and clear who they likes.


"The game the public is all over more than any other in parlay action so is the Falcons (-6.5) at Chicago, Pittsburgh (-9.5) at Cleveland and the Bills (-9.) over the Jets, basically the three biggest favorites on the board," said Simbal. "They've also sided with the Bills/Jets game Under (40) with the narrative being 'we don't like the Jets offense'."


Yes, the people still do hate the Jets. Buffalo opened -6.


Despite the Falcons getting all the small money, the line has moved off of -7 down to -6.5. South Point book director Chris Andrews and Station Casinos' director Jason McCormick both said respected money has come in on Chicago prompting the move.


Many sports books posted the Week 1 lines when the schedule was first announced on April 20 and CG books were one of them, and with that, there have been a few games that have moved dramatically.


"We've had a few games flip from being an early underdog to now being the favorite," Simbal said. "The biggest liability we have on those games is the Eagles where we've taken large straight bet action on them, but also lots of smaller public parlay play as well. Tennessee is almost the same type of situation with risk against the Raiders and then we have the Cardinals now favored (-1.5) over Detroit. We opened Detroit -3 and let bettors take it all the way down to pick 'em and then we've just kind of rolled with the market after that."


The Eagles have lost five straight to the Redskins and have failed to cover the number in the past six meetings, but sharps jumped all over Philly +3 (-120) on the road and now they're -1.5. The Raiders, who won at Tennessee 17-10 last season, opened -1 road favorites and the Titans are now -2.5 (-115).


What happens in the first 11 games of the day will see all that combined liability flow into one big giant risk in the Sunday night game. It's the get-back game, or the double-down game. It's the last leg of many parlays cashing at big payout prices.


"There's still a long ways to go, but I think we're going to need Dallas pretty good on Sunday night," Simbal said. "We're seeing a lot of support on the Giants (+4) so far taking points and the money-line."


The Giants have won the past three meetings and covered the last five.


So here's a quick run down around town of what the public is playing and where the sharps have played their action through Friday.


Public: Falcons, Steelers, Bills, Eagles, Raiders, Panthers


Sharps: Jets, Bears, Titans, Eagles, 49ers


Now you've got some information and the question to ask is 'what side do I want to be on'? How about a little baccarat? Are you with the banker (house) or player?


Last year, the player was real good, but the tide always turns for the house in NFL action.


Whatever strategy, best wishes to all.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 1


Jets @ Bills—Buffalo led NFL in rushing yardage last two years; will that change under the new coach? Bills had won five in row over the Jets before getting swept 37-31/30-10 in two meetings LY. Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 19-23-5 points. Jets open on road for first time since ’09; they’re 5-1 in last six season openers, 15-5 vs spread in last 20 road openers. Buffalo is 7-3 vs spread in last ten home openers- three of last four stayed under. Last five years, Bills are 9-6 vs spread when hosting AFC East foes; since 2012, they’re 12-10 as a home favorite. Over is 12-4 in their home games the last two years. Jets are 2-4-2 as road underdogs under Bowles. Under is 10-6 in Jet road games the last two seasons.


Falcons @ Bears— Last 14 years, Super Bowl loser is 5-9 in its first game the next year (2-12 vs spread). Atlanta also has two new coordinators this year; they’re 3-2 in last five season openers, 4-3 as a road favorite under Quinn. Under is 15-9 in their road games the last three years. Chicago is 6-11-1 vs spread as a home underdog since ’12 (4-1 LY). First meeting in three years between these two; Falcons lost last six games in Windy City- their last win here was in 1983 (also in Week 1). Atlanta is 3-2 in its last five road openers. Under is 10-3 in their last 13 AO’s. Chicago lost its last three home openers, by 3-8-15 points; over is 4-1-1 in their last six. Bears were -20 in turnovers LY, are 14-34 SU the last three years.


Jaguars @ Texans— Houston won last six games in this division rivalry; they swept Jaguars LY, 24-21/21-20. Jax lost five of last six games in Houston, losing last three by 1-24-6 points. Texans are 12-4-1 as a home favorite under O’Brien; they’re also starting 4th different QB on Opening Day in his four years as Texans’ coach. Since ’09, Jaguars are 24-29-1 as a road underdog; over is 11-5 in their road games the last two years. Jax lost its last nine road openers (2-7 vs spread)- they started 0-1 the last five years. Houston won six of last seven season openers, are 5-2 vs spread in last seven home openers. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers, 10-6 in their home games the last two seasons.


Eagles @ Redskins— Washington won last five series games, sweeping Iggles 27-20/27-22 LY. Philly lost last three visits here, by 3-3-7 points. Last two years, Redskins are 12-4 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points- they’re 4-8 as a home favorite under Gruden. Eagles are 8-9 vs spread as a road underdog the last three years. Philly won seven of last eight road openers- they covered last five tries as an underdog in AO’s. Over is 5-2-2 in their last nine AO’s. Washington lost four of its last five home openers; five of last six went over total. Last two years, Eagles are 7-10 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points. Over is 22-10 in Philly road games the last four years.


Cardinals @ Lions— Redbirds are 10-6 vs spread on artificial turf, 10-5 as road favorites under Arians. Detroit is 1-5 as home underdog under Caldwell. Arizona won its last seven games with Lions; five of those seven were in desert. Redbirds won 31-24/42-17 in last two visits here; their last loss to Lions was here in 2005. Arizona had covered eight road openers in row before losing Week 3 AO in Buffalo LY- three of their last four went over. Cards won five of last seven season openers. Detroit won five of last six season openers, lost last two home openers, scoring 12-15 points. Over is 5-2 in their last seven HO’s. Over is 13-3 in Cardinal road games last two years. Over is 23-17 in their home games the last five years.


Raiders @ Titans— Silver/Black was 7-1 LY in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 12-4 vs spread on road under Del Rio. Oakland won in Music City last two years, 24-21/17-10; road team won last three series games. Last four years, Titans are 9-20-3 vs spread at home; since 2011, they’re 13-22-3 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less. Oakland lost four of last five season openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten road openers— over is 12-5-1 in their last 18. Tennessee won three of last four season openers, but lost its last three home openers. Titans are 5-13-2 vs spread in last 20 non-divisional home tilts. Under is 7-3 in their last ten season openers. Oakland is 15-5 vs spread in its last 20 non-divisional road games. New kicker for the Raiders; Sebastian Janikowski got put on IR; Giorgio Tavecchio takes his place.


Because of Hurricane Irma, Bucs-Dolphins will be played in Week 11.


Ravens @ Bengals— Cincy is opening at home for first time since 2009; they went 4-3 in Week 1 road games since then, are 5-2 (4-2-1 vs spread) in last seven home openers. Under is 7-2 in their last nine HO’s. Bengals are 15-9-1 as home favorites since 2013, but their OL was ravaged in free agency last winter- they’re 7-5 vs spread in AFC North home games last four years. Since 2012, Baltimore is 10-13-1 as a road underdog; they’re 4-1-1 vs spread in last six divisional road games. Ravens lost four of last six road openers; they’re 7-4 vs spread in last 11 AO’s (over is 7-2-1 in last ten). These teams finished LY here against each other. Bengals won six of last seven meetings, winning last five played here, by 6-17-3-8-17 points.


Steelers @ Browns— Since returning to NFL in 1999, Cleveland has been 1-0 once, 0-1 17 times, with only Week 1 win 20-3 over the Ravens in ’04. Browns are 4-14 vs spread in HO’s, 3-2 in last five- they’re 2-12 vs spread in Week 1 HO’s. Steelers are 8-1 in last nine series games; they won three of last four visits here, with wins by 16-16-17 points. Pittsburgh lost five of last six road openers, four of last six season openers. Under is 7-3 in their last ten AO’s. Browns were 1-7 as home underdogs this year, are 13-21-1 as home dogs since 2010; they’re 1-8 in NFC North home games the last three years. Pittsburgh is 10-6 as a road favorite last two years, 4-2 in division games. Under is 12-4 in their last 16 road games.


Colts @ Rams— Luck is out here; Tolzien (0-2-1 as starter) gets the start. Goff had very little chance as rookie LY because Rams’ OL sucked; now we see if new regime has improved that unit. Rams were 1-4-1 as home dogs LY, are 22-30-2 in that role, since 2007. Over is 20-15 in their last 35 home games. Colts 1-3 as road favorites the last two years; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Indy lost six of last seven season openers, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven road openers. Under is 6-3 in their last nine season openers. Rams lost last 10 season openers, but won four of last five home openers; this is their first home opener in SoCal since 1994. First game for 31-year old Rams’ HC McVay; Rams hammered Colts 38-8 (+8) in last meeting, in 2013. Indy beat McVay’s Redskins 49-27 in ’14.


Seahawks @ Packers— Packers beat Seahawks last two years, 27-17/38-10; Seahawks lost last seven visits here- their last win at Lambeau was in ’99. Seattle lost nine of last ten road openers; under is 9-5 in their last 14. Home team won nine of their last ten season openers. Green Bay won nine of last ten home openers (8-2 vs spread); five of their last six went over total- their last six Week 1 games went over. Last three years, Packers are 14-7-2 as home favorites; they’re 8-12 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Under is 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Since ’11, Seahawks are 11-5-5 vs spread as a road underdog; they’re 8-5-2 in last 15 games where spread was 3 or less points.


Panthers @ 49ers— Niners are on 4th head coach in four years. How healthy is Newton’s shoulder? Panthers gave up 81 points LY in two games vs Shanahan’s Atlanta offense- 49ers’ personnel is obviously inferior. SF is 7-7 as home dog the last two years; under is 22-10 in their last 32 home games. Carolina is 6-12-1 as a road favorite under Rivera. In franchise history, Carolina is 1-6 vs spread as a favorite in road openers; Panthers lost six of last eight road openers- over is 6-3 in their last nine. Carolina lost six of last eight season openers. 49ers won five of last six home openers, covered seven of last eight, with last three staying under total. Carolina (-12.5) hammered 49ers 46-27 in Week 2 LY, their 5th win in last six games vs SF.


Giants @ Cowboys— Rivals meet in Week 1 for 4th time in last five years- this is 5th year in row Giants open on road. Big Blue won last three meetings with Cowboys; they swept Dallas 21-20/10-7 LY. Giants lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 1-10-5 points. Since ’08, Cowboys are vs spread 20-36 as home favorites (4-2 LY); over is 9-6-1 in their last 16 home games. Last 3 years, Giants are 5-8-2 as road underdogs; under was 7-1 in their road games LY, McAdoo’s first as HC. Big Blue lost five of last seven road openers, with last two decided by a point apiece. Over is 11-2 in Giants’ last 14 road openers. Dallas won four of its last six home openers, but is 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine.


Saints @ Vikings— Adrian Peterson visits his old team. Since 2014, New Orleans is 11-4-1 vs spread as a road underdog, 6-3-1 in non-division games. Under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Minnesota is 13-4 as home favorites under Zimmer; under is 14-10 in their last 24 home games. Saints won last four series games- three of those were in Superdome. Teams last met in ’14; Saints were last here in ’11. New Orleans lost five of last six season openers, are 0-4 in last four Week 1 road tilts; last time they won a Week 1 road game was ’06 in Cleveland. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road openers. Minnesota is 3-6 in last nine Week 1 games; under is 8-4 in their last 12 HO’s- this is only second time in last 10 years they open season at home.


Chargers @ Broncos— New era for Denver, with Siemian at QB now- they missed playoffs LY for first time in six years. Chargers have moved north an hour; unsure how unsettling the small move will be- it hurt the Rams LY. Denver is 10-2 in last 12 series games, winning last four played here, by 7-14-7-8 points. Since 2014, Broncos are 8-10-1 vs spread as a home favorite- they won their last five home openers, are 6-2 in last eight. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 10; this is 7th year in row Denver opened season at home. Chargers are 21-11-1 in last 33 games as a road underdog; under is 18-14 in their last 32 road games. Bolts covered four of last five road openers, losing last three, by 1-5-6 points; they’re 7-3 vs spread in last 10 Week 1 road tilts.


2017 week-by-week results


Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC


1) 0-1 0-1 1-0


T) 0-1 0-1 1-0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Week 1 lines that make you go hmmm...


Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm…” in Week 1:


New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 40.5)


This is probably is one of the worst games of the opening schedule. Like many other first games of the year, the opening line has jumped significantly since it was first posted. Opening as 6-point favorites, the Bills are now favored as high as they’ve ever been in Nevada for a long time.


The general movement began when Bills money came in early more as an anti-Jet statement. But the line has split sportsbooks around the state after the Tyrod Taylor injury. Lines vary from a low of -7.5 to a high of -9.


My feeling is if Taylor does in fact play, the -7.5 looks like a foregone conclusion to move towards the higher number. Backup Nathan Peterson has been solid in his brief outings during the preseason but if he starts, the game will look a lot different than when he was playing against a store of fringe players and bench warmers.


I’m seeing this line to continue to climb where most to all of the sportsbooks will see a consensus of -8.5 or -9 by the opening kickoff. In that case, as bad as they seem, the Jets may be a good bargain. The Bills haven’t proved to be able to win, let alone cover one of the largest spreads of week one.


Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+1, 48)


The Eagles have received all of the love since this game opened as Washington the 2.5-point favorites in the summer.


Personally, I think the betting public has totally miscalculated this game. Washington has won the last five games between them and they should prove worthy of our consideration in this season opening game.


With so little to go on as far as data support, one just has to view the teams for their face value. Washington has tremendous offensive power but had difficulty landing in the end zone once they were in striking position last season. There should be an improvement there, particularly with the Eagles vulnerable defensive backfield.


Although these teams are not separated by much, the Redskins should be able to muster up a win in their home opener. Anytime you don’t have to give up any points at home, there has to be value in that.


Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 42)


This line moved 6.5 points to the current number with the announcement that Colts QB Andrew Luck will be out. Scott Tolzien gets the start and though I totally understand the drop off between the two, a 6.5-point jump putting the Rams as a half point over the key three barrier, has me believing the Colts are a value play in Week 1.


I’m not going to hang my hat on this Rams team until they can prove they can compete. Their predictive 5.5 team wins adds fuel to my speculation that this team will have a very long season. The Colts (with Luck in) are around the nine-win level. Even without their starter, the Colts have enough on each side of the line to win this outright, or at the least, keep this very close.


There’s been enough time for the Colts to have somewhat gelled without Luck and an opening road game against a team like the Rams has to have put some energy on their sideline that they can steal a win here. There’s good value with that hook and we’ll take it as long as it remains on the board that high.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL betting action heavy and somewhat surprising for Week 1


With apologies to Christmas, this is the most wonderful time of the year. College football is in full swing, and the first NFL regular-season Sunday is on tap this weekend. We check in on the action for a 12-game NFL Sunday sked, with insights from Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.


Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: -1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5


Arizona is coming off a disappointing season, while Detroit is coming off a playoff appearance, but bettors have made a big move toward the Cardinals in this 1 p.m. ET contest. Bruce Arians’ troops went 7-9 SU and 6-10 ATS in 2016, after reaching the NFC title game two seasons ago.


Detroit was 9-4 SU (8-5 ATS) through 13 games last season and in control of its destiny atop the NFC North. However, the Lions dumped their last three regular-season tilts SU and ATS, ended up with a wild-card berth, and got pounded at Seattle 26-6 as an 8-point underdog to finish 9-8 SU (8-9 ATS).


“A lot of people were thinking the Lions were fortunate last year to even make the playoffs,” Simbal said. “It’s indicative of the action we’ve seen on this game. The sharp action really drove this price from Arizona being a 3-point ‘dog to becoming the favorite.”


CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip, opened this game back in April, though much of the movement has come in the last couple of weeks. TopBet.eu also posted this matchup months ago at Detroit -3 and had the Lions -2 on Aug. 25 before things really began moving.


“We got a sharp play on Arizona +2, so we moved to Cards +1,” Jerome said. “On Aug. 28, we moved to a pick ‘em, on Sept. 2, we moved to Arizona -1.”


The Cards climbed to -2 by Friday and -2.5 Saturday. Jerome said 77 percent of the money and 80 percent of the tickets are on Arizona.


Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: +1; Move: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -2; Move: -2.5


Last year, Oakland was putting the finishing touches on its best season in more than a decade when star QB Derek Carr broke his leg in Week 16. The Raiders still finished 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) but fell into the wild-card playoff round, where they lost to Houston 27-14 as a 4-point road underdog.


Tennessee went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) in 2016, missing the playoffs after losing a tiebreaker with Houston for the AFC South title. But the Titans finished on a strong note, winning four of their last five, and bettors are lining up behind them for this 1 p.m. ET start, as this game has seen significant movement in just the past two weeks.


“On Aug. 29, we got sharp action on Tennessee pick 'em, so we moved Titans to -1,” Jerome said, adding the line went to -2 a day later and to -2.5 (-125) on Wednesday.


While the sharps have played Tennessee, Jerome said Oakland is still getting plenty of attention, with 69 percent of the money and 73 percent of bets.


CG Technology actually opened Oakland -1 back in April, then the game flipped to Titans -1 on Aug. 29 and got to Titans -2.5 on Thursday.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns – Open: +9; Move: +9.5; Move: +9; Move: +9.5


Pittsburgh is among the teams near the top of the Super Bowl futures odds. The Steelers went 11-5 SU (9-7 ATS) last year, winning their last seven games of the regular season (5-1-1 ATS) to take the AFC North. Mike Tomlin’s squad then won and cashed against Miami in the wild-card round and at Kansas City in the divisional round, before falling at New England 36-17 getting 5.5 points in the AFC title game.


Cleveland had a season to forget, which can describe most Cleveland seasons. The Browns went a paltry 1-15 SU and 3-12-1 ATS, yet for some reason, sharp players were on Cleveland seemingly every week. That trend hasn’t yet stopped for this 1 p.m. ET contest.


“Nobody really thinks (the Steelers) are gonna lose this game, but the sharp players have taken the points with the Browns, and as we know, the public is always gonna back Pittsburgh when they’re playing Cleveland,” Simbal said. “So we have a real kind of Pros vs. Joes matchup here. The books are gonna be siding with the pros in this one, definitely needing the Browns. The sharps were on Cleveland last year a lot, and they got burned with it all year. They’re hoping that maybe this year, a change of fortune.”


Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1.5; Move: Pick; Move: -1.5; Move: -2.5; Move: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4


Indianapolis went 8-8 SU (7-8-1 ATS) last year, alternating SU wins and losses over its final seven games. So the Colts are hoping to become a consistent winner, but already face a setback as they won’t have Andrew Luck today, while he continues recovering from offseason shoulder surgery.


As Luck’s absence became more likely late last month, the line began rumbling toward pick, and since becoming official last week, it steamed toward Los Angeles, which is now a 4-point home favorite for this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. The Rams won three of their first four games SU and ATS in 2016, but got just one win the rest of the way, finishing 4-12 SU (4-11-1 ATS).


“The Colts opened a 3-point favorite here, that was when Luck was questionable but we figured him to play,” Simbal said. “Now we know Luck is not playing, and we’re going to flip the line all the way to a (4-point) favorite for the Rams. The Luck injury was about a 6-, 7-point swing, so clearly a big variance with Andrew Luck not playing.”


At TopBet.eu, the Colts also opened -3, but the line is now Rams -4.5. Jerome said there’s not much sharp action on the game, but a solid majority of cash and tickets are on Los Angeles.

 

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 1
September 10, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1


1) Cincinnati (866)


2) Houston (863)


3) Tennessee (839)


4) Atlanta (819)


5) Arizona (742)




SUPERCONTEST WEEK 1 MATCHUPS & ODDS


Away Team Selections Home Team Selections


Kansas City 195 New England 191


N.Y. Jets 374 Buffalo 171


Atlanta 819 Chicago 429


Jacksonville 244 Houston 863


Philadelphia 542 Washington 449


Arizona 742 Detroit 351


Oakland 421 Tennessee 839


Tampa Bay OFF Miami OFF


Baltimore 148 Cincinnati 866


Pittsburgh 706 Cleveland 209


Indianapolis 106 L.A. Rams 691


Seattle 304 Green Bay 456


Carolina 539 San Francisco 484


N.Y. Giants 581 Dallas 267


New Orleans 448 Minnesota 336


L.A. Chargers 667 Denver 232




WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 - - -
2 - - -
3 - - -
4 - - -
5 - - -
6 - - -
- - - -
8 - - -
9 - - -
10 - - -
11 - - -
12 - - -
13 - - -
14 - - -
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ATL at CHI 01:00 PM


ATL -6.5


U 48.0


PIT at CLE 01:00 PM


PIT -9.5


O 47.0


JAC at HOU 01:00 PM


HOU -5.0


O 38.0


PHI at WAS 01:00 PM


WAS +1.0


O 49.5


OAK at TEN 01:00 PM

OAK +3.0


O 49.5


NYJ at BUF 01:00 PM


BUF -7.5


U 41.5


BAL at CIN 01:00 PM


BAL +3.0


U 41.0


ARI at DET 01:00 PM

DET +2.5


O 48.5






Late games posted later....Good Luck !

 

[CNOTES]

IND at LAR 04:05 PM


LAR -3.5


U 41.5


SEA at GB 04:25 PM

GB -2.5


U 50.0


CAR at SF 04:25 PM


SF +4.5


U 45.0

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY NIGHT BAILOUT


NYG at DAL 08:30 PM


DAL -4.5


U 46.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Today, Week 1
September 10, 2017


SCOREBOARD


Monday, Sept. 10


New Orleans at Minnesota, 7:10 p.m. EDT. The Saints' Drew Brees had a NFL-leading 5,208 yards passing last season, a record seventh time he's topped the league, and will play out the final year of his contract with New Orleans. Sam Bradford is coming off a career-best season for Minnesota, and also is playing 2017 on an expiring deal while the Vikings wait for 2014 first-round draft pick Teddy Bridgewater to recover from a severe knee injury last summer.


---

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver, 10:20 p.m. EDT. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is 3-9 in his last 12 games against Von Miller and the Broncos, with 18 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Rivers also has been sacked 37 times by Denver in that span, including 13 by Miller. Vance Joseph will be making his head coaching debut for the Broncos.


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STARS


Passing


- Matthew Stafford, Lions, tossed four touchdown passes and went 29 of 41 for 292 yards with an interception in his first game as the NFL's highest-paid player, leading Detroit to a 35-23 victory over Arizona.


- Matt Ryan, Falcons, threw for 321 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's 23-17 win at Chicago.


- Carson Wentz, Eagles, passed for 307 yards and two scores to help Philadelphia top Washington 30-17.


- Jared Goff, Rams, went 21 of 29 for a career-high 306 yards and a TD in Los Angeles' 46-9 rout of Indianapolis.


- Derek Carr, Raiders, had 262 yards passing and two touchdowns in Oakland's 26-16 win at Tennessee - his first game since breaking his right leg late last season.


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Rushing


- LeSean McCoy, Bills, ran for 110 yards on 22 carries in Buffalo's 21-12 win over the New York Jets.


- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, had 100 yards rushing and a touchdown on 26 attempts in his NFL debut, helping Jacksonville to a 29-7 win at Houston.


- Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, rushed for 104 yards on 26 carries and caught five passes for 36 yards in Dallas' 19-3 win over the New York Giants.


- Terrance West, Ravens, ran for 80 yards and a TD on 19 carries in Baltimore's 20-0 victory at Cincinnati.


- Marshawn Lynch, Raiders, had 76 yards rushing on 18 attempts in Oakland's 26-16 win at Tennessee - his first regular-season game since coming out of retirement.


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Receiving


- Antonio Brown, Steelers, caught 11 passes for 182 yards in Pittsburgh's 21-18 win at Cleveland.


- Golden Tate, Lions, had 10 receptions for 107 yards as Detroit topped Arizona 35-23.


- Kenny Golladay, Lions, caught two TD passes in his NFL debut to help Detroit defeat Arizona 35-23.


- Nelson Agholor, Eagles, had 86 yards receiving, including a 58-yard TD, in Philadelphia's 30-17 victory at Washington.


- Austin Hooper, Falcons, had 128 yards receiving and a TD on two catches in Atlanta's 23-17 win at Chicago.


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Special Teams

- Giorgio Tavecchio, Raiders, kicked field goals of 20, 52, 52 and 43 yards in his NFL debut, helping Oakland top Tennessee 26-16.


- Matt Prater, Lions, made a 58-yard field goal and averaged 34.8 yards on four punts - with a long of 47 - in relief of the injured Kasey Redfern in Detroit's 35-23 victory over Arizona


- Greg Zuerlein, Rams, made all three of his field-goal attempts and five extra points to help kick Los Angeles past Indianapolis 46-9.


- Matt Bryant, Falcons, booted three field goals and two extra points in Atlanta's 23-17 win at Chicago.


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Defense


- Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue, Jaguars. Campbell had four of Jacksonville's franchise-record 10 sacks in a 29-7 win at Houston. Ngakoue had two sacks and forced two fumbles.


- Ryan Kerrigan, Redskins, returned an interception of Carson Wentz 24 yards for a touchdown in Washington's 30-17 loss to Philadelphia. He has scored on all three of his career INTs.


- Brandon Graham, Eagles, had two sacks and forced a fumble in Philadelphia's 30-17 victory at Washington.


- Terrell Suggs, Ravens, sacked Cincinnati's Andy Dalton twice and forced a fumble in Baltimore's 20-0 win.


- T.J. Watt, Steelers. The little brother of J.J. Watt had two sacks and an interception in his NFL debut, helping Pittsburgh to a 21-18 win at Cleveland.


- Justin Bethel, Cardinals, returned Matthew Stafford's first pass 82 yards for a touchdown in Arizona's 35-23 loss at Detroit.


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STREAKS & STATS


Philadelphia's 30-17 win at Washington on Sunday snapped a five-game skid against the Redskins dating to Sept. 9, 2014. The Eagles won at FedEx Field for the first time since 2013. ... Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger improved to 21-2 in his career against Cleveland with a 21-18 win. The Steelers also improved to 32-6 against the Browns since 1999. Meanwhile, the Browns have lost 13 straight openers. ... Jacksonville had a franchise-record 10 sacks and forced four turnovers against Houston in a 29-7 victory, its first in a season-opener since 2011. ... Jets quarterback Josh McCown went 26 of 39 for 187 yards in a 21-12 loss at Buffalo, opening his 15th NFL season by extending his personal losing streak to eight games. The skid dates to Oct. 11, 2015, when he led Cleveland to a 33-30 win over Baltimore. McCown is 1-17 in his last 18 starts. ... Aaron Rodgers' regular-season streak of passes without an interception ended at a career-high 251 when Nazair Jones intercepted him at 9:26 of the first quarter of Green Bay's 17-9 win over Seattle. It was Rodgers' first interception since Nov. 13, 2016, at Tennessee. ... Atlanta's Austin Hooper had an 88-yard touchdown reception in the Falcons' 23-17 win at Chicago, the longest TD catch by a tight end in a season opener in NFL history.


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MILESTONE


Dallas tight end Jason Witten broke the franchise record for yards receiving in the Cowboys' 19-3 season-opening victory over the Giants. Witten, who scored the Cowboys' first touchdown on a 12-yard catch and finished with seven catches for 59, broke Hall of Fame receiver Michael Irvin's club record of 11,904 yards. Witten, already the franchise leader in catches, now has 1,096 receptions for 11,947 yards. Witten is the only tight end other than Tony Gonzalez with at least 1,000 catches and 10,000 yards.


---


RAM TOUGH


Los Angeles Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson and safety Lamarcus Joyner each returned interceptions for scores, and defensive end Morgan Fox had a safety in a 46-9 win over Indianapolis. The Rams became the first team in NFL history to return two INTs for TDs and a safety in a season opener.


---


STINGY START


Baltimore's 20-0 win at Cincinnati was the Ravens' third season-opening shutout. They also blanked Pittsburgh in 2000 and Tampa Bay in 2006, both on the road. The Bengals hadn't been blanked in their season opener since 1979, when they lost at Denver 10-0. They hadn't been shut out at Paul Brown Stadium since 2001 by the Bears.


---


DIAPER DANDY

The Los Angeles Rams routed the Indianapolis Colts 46-9 Sunday in 31-year-old Sean McVay's impressive debut as the youngest head coach in modern league history. The Rams produced their highest-scoring performance since November 2014 in their first game since McVay took over a franchise that went 4-12 in its 13th straight non-winning season and 12th straight non-playoff season.


---


DEBUTS


Cleveland's DeShone Kizer ran for a 1-yard TD and threw a 3-yard scoring pass in an impressive debut, but came up just short in the Browns' 21-18 loss to Pittsburgh. ... Houston coach Bill O'Brien replaced Tom Savage with rookie Deshaun Watson at halftime of the Texans' 29-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, leaving questions about who will start on Thursday night for a team long plagued with problems at the position. Watson was 12 of 23 for 102 yards and had two carries for 16 yards. Savage managed just 62 yards passing and lost two fumbles, including one which was returned for a touchdown. ... Carolina first-round pick Christian McCaffrey had an up-and-down debut in a 23-3 win at San Francisco. The former Stanford star gained 45 yards on 13 carries and added five catches for 38 yards, but also lost a fumble in the fourth quarter.


---


BEWARE THE RAVENS


Baltimore's rebuilt defense picked off Andy Dalton four times and forced him to fumble in the Ravens' 20-0 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Dalton has nine three-interception games during his career, four of them against Baltimore. His only other four-interception game also was against the Ravens in the 2013.


---


RAIDERS REPLACEMENT


Giorgio Tavecchio kicked field goals of 20, 52, 52 and 43 yards in his NFL debut, helping Oakland beat Tennessee 26-16. He was signed Friday to fill in for the Raiders' all-time leading scorer and 18-year veteran Sebastian Janikowski, who's on injured reserve with a bad back. Tavecchio became the first player in league history to make two field goals of at least 50 yards in his debut.


---


BEAST MODE RETURNS


Marshawn Lynch took the first carry of the game for Oakland and rumbled right over Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey on the Raiders' final scoring drive on one of his six rushes to set up the clinching field goal in a 26-16 win over Tennessee.


---


OPENING ONSIDE

Tennessee became the first team since 2009 to open a season with an onside kick, pulling one off against Oakland in a 26-16 loss. The Minnesota Vikings were the previous, and they also didn't recover the kick. Ryan Succop's kick went to Shalom Luani. Derek Carr completed three passes, Marshawn Lynch rumbled 14 yards on his first carry, and Amari Cooper finished the drive with an 8-yard TD catch for a quick 7-0 lead for the Raiders.


---


BACK IN BUSINESS

Both Oakland's Derek Carr and Tennessee's Marcus Mariota broke their right leg hours apart on Christmas Eve for season-ending injuries - and both were back on the field for the season opener - a 26-16 win by the Raiders. Carr finished his third season by tying Ezekiel Elliott of Dallas for third in voting for the AP MVP award after leading Oakland to a 12-4 season, while Mariota led the Titans to a 9-7 mark in just his second season. Carr threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns, while Mariota looked healthy in running for a 10-yard TD and threw for 256 yards.


---

SIDELINED


A person familiar with the situation said that Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson is out for the season after tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee in the season opener. The person spoke to The Associated Press on the condition of anonymity because the team had not released details of Robinson's injury. Robinson landed awkwardly on his left knee while making a catch in the first quarter of Sunday's 29-7 victory at Houston and did not return. Tests revealed a season-ending injury, the person said. ... Houston linebacker Brian Cushing, tight ends Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz and receiver Bruce Ellington all left with concussions. ... Arizona running back David Johnson left the Cardinals' 35-23 at Detroit loss with a wrist injury in the third quarter. Johnson, who led the league with 2,118 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns last season, was limited to 23 yards rushing on 11 carries and had six receptions for 68 yards. ... Baltimore running back Danny Woodhead injured his left hamstring on the opening series and didn't return to the Ravens' 20-0 win at Cincinnati. Linebacker Za'Darius Smith hurt his left knee in the second quarter and was helped off the field. ... Philadelphia lost cornerback Ronald Darby to what looked like a serious right ankle injury early in the second quarter of the Eagles' 30-17 win at Washington. Kicker Caleb Sturgis, who made three field goals, was injured late in the game.


---


SPEAKING

''Last year was last year. ... We just got in there and got back to work. We just got the win today. We just put our head down and continued to work.'' - Atlanta's Julio Jones on opening with a 23-17 win at Chicago while coming off a Super Bowl loss.


---


''I could have avoided it if I wanted to, but I felt like I kind of had to take it a little bit.'' - a grinning Rams coach Sean McVay after the 31-year-old coach - the youngest in modern NFL history - led Los Angeles to a 46-9 win over Indianapolis in his debut.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Cardinals RB Johnson leaves with injury
September 10, 2017


Arizona Cardinals star running back David Johnson sustained a wrist injury during the third quarter against the Detroit Lions on Sunday and did not return.


X-rays were negative, and he will have an MRI on Monday.


Johnson was injured while making a 24-yard reception earlier in the quarter. Johnson returned on Arizona's next possession, but fumbled on his next carry, which Detroit recovered and later cashed in for a touchdown.


Johnson scored 20 touchdowns and gained over 2,000 combined yards rushing and receiving last season.


--Journeyman quarterback Josh McCown not only won the New York Jets' starting job, but has a chance to earn hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonus money.


The 38-year-old McCown earned $125,000 for starting Sunday's season opener game in Buffalo and will earn $125,000 for every other game he starts this season, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.


The per-game bonuses are on top of McCown's $6 million fully guaranteed base salary.


--The Houston Texans honored the heroes from Hurricane Harvey in the pregame ceremony for the season opener at NRG Stadium.


The Texans played the Jacksonville Jaguars in their first game since the hurricane left unprecedented flooding in its wake with more than 50 inches in some spots in the Houston area.


The bond between Houston and the Texans will be on display all season with players wearing a "Houston Strong" helmet decal.


During the pregame ceremony, a moment of silence was held for those who lost their lives during the storm.


--Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson sustained a left knee injury on the third play from scrimmage against the Houston Texans and did not return.


Robinson caught a 17-yard pass from quarterback Blake Bortles to provide the Jaguars with their initial first down of the game. But Robinson failed to make it to the visiting sideline after crumpling to the turf.


Robinson led the Jaguars in receptions (73), receiving yards (883) and receiving touchdowns (six) last season.


--Philadelphia Eagles starting cornerback Ronald Darby left Sunday's game against the Washington Redskins in the second quarter with a right ankle injury.


Darby, who was acquired from the Buffalo Bills in August, was covering tight end Jordan Reed and running across the field when he went down awkwardly near the Philadelphia sideline.


--Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Bud Dupree was declared inactive with a shoulder injury for the season opener in Cleveland against the Browns.


Dupree hurt his shoulder during the week and did not go through a full practice. Anthony Chickillo start in his place.


--Green Bay Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga was inactive with an ankle injury for the season opener against the Seattle Seahawks.


Bulaga, who returned to practice last week after hurting his ankle in August, was listed on Friday's injury report as questionable.

--Seattle Seahawks cornerback Jeremy Lane was ejected and Aaron Rodgers' interception-free streak was broken on one play during the first quarter of Sunday's game at Green Bay.


Rodgers threw a screen pass that went right into the hands of defensive lineman Nazair Jones. Jones returned it for a touchdown, but there were two flags: one for an illegal block in the back against defensive end Cliff Avril on Rodgers and one for Lane getting into a scuffle with Packers receiver Davante Adams.


Rodgers entered the game with a streak of 245 consecutive regular-season passes without an interception. That streak ended at 251. Bart Starr owns the franchise record with 294 passes in 1964.


--San Francisco 49ers rookie linebacker Reuben Foster was carted off the field after sustaining an ankle injury with 3:33 left in the first quarter against the Carolina Panthers.


The 49ers initially thought Foster had a broken leg, but X-rays came back negative.


Foster, who is a first-round draft pick from Alabama, started at outside linebacker in his NFL debut.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Monday, September 11

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: New Orleans at Minnesota
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New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48)


Adrian Peterson may have served as the face of the Minnesota Vikings' franchise for the majority of his 10-year career, but the 2012 NFL MVP plans to show his now-former team that he has plenty left in the tank. Peterson brings his new club, the New Orleans Saints, into U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday night for its season opener against the Vikings.


"Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play," the 32-year-old Peterson told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. "But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them." That plan of attack likely will go through quarterback Drew Brees (NFL-best 5,208 passing yards in 2016), who looks to keep New Orleans' top-ranked total offense (426.0 yards per game) in gear with second-year wideout Michael Thomas aiming to take the next step in the wake of the offseason departure of Brandin Cooks (New England). Minnesota boasted five Pro Bowl selections on its defense that ranked third in the league last season in yards allowed per game (314.9). "It makes it more interesting once he bounces it outside or catches the ball," Pro Bowl cornerback Xavier Rhodes told the newspaper. "You have that extra adrenaline, whatever you want to call it, if you can stop him so you can talk trash later on that day."

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-0.5) - Vikings (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Vikings -3

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 3.5 point chalk in Adrian Peterson’s return to Minnesota and the spread has dropped to -3. The total hit the betting board at 48 and has yet to change.

INJURY REPORT:


Saints - DE T. Hendrickson (Questionable, Illness), LB N. Stupar (Questionable, Hamstring), QB C. Daniel (Questionable, Ankle), T T. Armstead (Doubtful, Shoulder), WR W. Snead IV (Eligible Week 4, Suspension), LB S. Anthony (Late September, Ankle), CB D. Breaux (Questionable Week 9, Leg), WR C. Fuller (I-R, Undisclosed), TE C. Harbor (I-R, Undisclosed), DT D Lawrence (I-R, Knee), T M. Wallace (I-R, Undisclosed), WR D. Arnold (I-R, Undisclosed), DT N. Fairley (I-R, Heart)


Vikings - DE B. Robison (Probable, Groin), S A. Harris (Probable, Leg), G D. Isidora (Questionable, Knee), DB T. Brock (Questionable, Groin), WR M. Floyd (Eligibility Week 5, Groin), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, Week 7 Knee), QB T. Bridgewater (Questionable Week 7, Knee), RB B. Sankey (I-R, Knee).

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2016: 7-9 WU, 11-5 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Long the centerpiece in Minnesota's backfield, Peterson likely will take a complementary role with third-round rookie Alvin Kamara joining incumbent starter Mark Ingram, who is coming off career highs in rushing yards (1,043), scrimmage yards (1,362) and total touchdowns (10). While the offense rarely is an issue, New Orleans' defense has languished near the bottom of the NFL for the last three seasons - including a 31st rank in points allowed in 2016. Cameron Jordan (team-leading 7.5 sacks) and linebacker Craig Robertson (club-best 114 tackles) made their marks last year and rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is hoping to do the same with the NFL's worst pass defense. "People think we're still at the bottom of the barrel. ... I love proving people wrong anyway, so I'm ready for it," the 21-year-old said.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2016: 9-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Sam Bradford benefited from a short-yardage passing game to set an NFL record for completion percentage last season, due in large part to the team's inability to run the ball. Minnesota addressed its sputtering running game by selecting Florida State's Dalvin Cook in the second round of the 2017 draft and acquiring Latavius Murray in the offseason, shortly after Peterson bolted to the Bayou. Stefon Diggs (team-leading 84 receptions) and Adam Thielen (career-high 967 receiving yards) serve as Bradford's wideouts while Kyle Rudolph's 83 catches in 2016 were the most by a tight end in franchise history.

TRENDS:


* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.


* Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.


* Over is 5-1 in Saints last 6 games in Week 1.


* Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Saints at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.




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NFL

Monday, September 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: LA Chargers at Denver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3, 43)


The Denver Broncos aim to rebound from a subpar season by their standards, while the Los Angeles Chargers begin a new era when the two long-time AFC West rivals meet on Monday night in the Mile High City. Both teams also feature new coaches - Vance Joseph for Denver, Anthony Lynn for Los Angeles - while the Chargers play their initial game since unceremoniously ditching San Diego after 56 seasons.


The Broncos missed the playoffs last season after winning the Super Bowl following the 2015 campaign and once again will revolve around a defense led by star linebacker Von Miller. Denver rehired Mike McCoy to rev up the offense after he spent the last four seasons as the Chargers' coach, going a woeful 9-23 over the past two years before being fired. Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib took notice that Los Angeles wideout Keenan Allen is healthy after tearing an ACL in the 2016 season opener and cautioned that the Chargers are a dangerous foe. "They're healthy now, and they've got all of their guys and all of their guns are on deck," Talib told reporters. "They have Philip Rivers as their quarterback, so if you have a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, you're probably going to be pretty good on offense."

TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 4.5-point home favorites back in April when Week 1 lines were first released. With plenty of time to bet the underdog Chargers, the spread made its way down to the current number of -3. The total hit the betting boards at 44 and was ticked down a notch to 43.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (+2.5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -7

INJURY REPORT:


Chargers - WR T. Williams (Probable, Groin), WR D. Inman (Questionable, Groin), TE S. McGrath (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Williams (Out, Back), DT T. Palepoi (Out, Suspension), C M. Tuerk (Out, Suspension), DE J. Attaochu (Out, Hamstring), LB D. Perryman (Out, Ankle), G F. Lamp (I-R, Knee), DE C. Landrum (I-R, Shoulder), LB C. Moore (I-R, Undisclosed), TE A. Cleveland (I-R, Knee).


Broncos - RB J. Charles (Probable, Knee), CB A. Talib (Probable, Achilles), C M. Paradis (Probable, Hip), DE D. Wolfe (Probable, Ankle), WR D. Thomas (Probable, Groin), DE A. Gotsis (Questionable, Shoulder), LB S. Barrett (Questionable, Hip), DE J. Crick (Out, Back), RB D. Booker (Out, Wrist), QB P. Lynch Out, Shoulder), DE Z. Kerr (Out, Knee), LB S. Ray (Out, Wrist), TE J. Butt (Out, Knee), QB C. Kelly (Out, Wrist), WR C. Henderson (I-R, Thumb), DE B. Winn (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2016: 5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U): Rivers still wings the ball all over the field at age 35 and has topped 4,000 yards eight times to go along with five seasons of 30 or more touchdown passes. Melvin Gordon missed a 1,000-yard rushing season by three yards when he sat out the final three games with hip and knee injuries, while veteran Antonio Gates has 111 career touchdown receptions - tied with Tony Gonzalez for most by a tight end in NFL history. Pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks as a rookie) and Melvin Ingram (eight) will test a Denver offensive line that has four new starters while cornerback Casey Hayward (NFL-best seven interceptions) leads the secondary.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2016: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Trevor Siemian begins his second year as a starter after passing for 3,401 yards last season and has a solid pair of receivers at his disposal in Demaryius Thomas (five straight 1,000-yard seasons) and Emmanuel Sanders (three straight). Running back C.J. Anderson is healthy after playing just seven games in 2016 before undergoing season-ending knee surgery while former Kansas City star Jamaal Charles will try to revive his career after appearing in only eight contests over the last two seasons due to his own knee woes. Miller is second in the NFL in both sacks (73.5) and forced fumbles (19) since entering in 2011 while Talib is tied for fourth in league history with nine career interceptions returned for touchdowns.

TRENDS:


* Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 Monday games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games in Week 1.
* Chargers are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Denver.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Broncos at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is picking up 54 percent of the totals action.




------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Sept......


09/10/2017.............14-10-0...........58.33%..........+1500

09/07/2017.............2-0-0..............100.00%.........+1000


Totals...................16 - 10 - 0...........61.53%.........+2500




Best Bets or POD....Will be Denoted as *****


None


Good Luck !

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
September 11, 2017


Monday's NFL Best Bet
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos


Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season concludes with the annual MNF double-header tonight. First up on the dockett is Adrian Peterson's return to Minnesota as the Saints and Vikings do battle, while the L.A Chargers and Denver Broncos renew hostilities in the nightcap.


After we've already seen a few significant upsets this week (KC, Jacksonville) and only two Sunday games go 'over' in regards to totals, there will be plenty of bettors looking to get back some of their losses on these two games tonight. Chasing losses on MNF games can lead to much more problems if your not careful, but in regards to tonight's action, there is one play I firmly like on the card.


BetOnline.ag Odds: L.A. (+3) vs Denver (-3); Total set at 42


The Chargers officially begin regular season life as the “L.A.” Chargers tonight, albeit on the road in a familiar spot to open things up. Games against Denver have generally been close over the past few years as each of the last three were decided by a single TD, and seven of the last 10 have been decided by that margin as well. L.A. hasn't been on the right side of many of those games as they are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 vs the Broncos, and haven't won in Denver since 2013.


Tonight the Chargers are catching a FG on the spread and to get the ATS victory they'll need to find a way to solve a Denver defense that many believe will be among the league's best this year.

Denver's hopes in 2017 largely rest on the play of that defense as there is much to be desired on offense. QB Trevor Siemian will be under center to start this evening, and he'll have basically the same weapons around him he did a year ago when the Broncos finished with a 9-7 SU mark. RB Jamaal Charles is a new face that should see some action this evening, but I don't believe you can count on him to look like his former self as he's on the wrong side of 30 now and is coming off two significant knee injuries the past two years.


Charles is likely going to be the backup behind RB CJ Anderson, but both guys should get plenty of work as the Broncos still aren't going to cut ALL the strings of Siemian tonight. A Broncos victory tonight will be because the running game gets hot and Denver's defense steps up and locks down a much more explosive Chargers attack.


Yet, trying to win games in today's NFL with a strong defense and solid running attack will only get you so far. The Chargers have som many more playmakers from top to bottom on their roster, and QB Philip Rivers may be poised for a good year. Guys like TE Antonio Gates and WR Keenan Allen are back and healthy, while the entire organization – and most of the football world – expects huge things from RB Melvin Gordon in 2017. With weapons like that from top to bottom, this talented Denver defense is going to have to pick their poison, and if they are unable to execute, I'm not sure the Broncos offense will do enough to keep up with the Chargers.


L.A. hasn't won much in this rivalry of late, but they are 8-2-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to Denver, and the road team is on a 10-3-1 ATS run in this rivalry. The Chargers have also brought home the money for bettors in Week 1 in each of the previous five seasons (5-0 ATS), and a 10-4 ATS run on the road entering the year suggests this core of guys understand how to get it done away from home.


Denver is a team I will have some “play on” spots at times this year, but they are also a team I'll likely have a tough time trusting with Siemian at QB and a lackluster offense that could have a tough time keeping up with a few opponents. L.A.'s defense has some playmakers of their own in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and should they be able to frustrate Siemian and the rest of the Broncos offense early on, we could be looking at 9th outright win for visiting teams in Week 1 – pending the Saints/Vikings result.


I'm not quite ready to fully commit to a Chargers ML play tonight, but I'll be taking the points with them instead.


Best Bet: L.A. Chargers +3

 

[CNOTES]

Books roll in Week 1
September 11, 2017


What comes around always goes around, and the boomerang effect for Las Vegas sports books came flying back in their favor in Week 1 NFL action where the public struggled to cash their favorite wagers.


Last year was the worst NFL season Las Vegas had ever experienced, but they came roaring out of the gate this year with almost a perfect wish list of games working for the house.


"Anytime you get a popular favorite like Houston losing outright, it's a good start for the book,' said Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci. "And then on top of that we get the Browns (+10) and Bears (+7) covering, it really gave us a nice early start."


The Jaguars were getting +6 at Houston and the Texans garnered lots of support from the public, especially considering expected emotions of Hurricane Harvey that would have the Texans at their best. Jacksonville, with their own hurricane issues dealing with Irma, came strong early and never let up in a 29-7 win which paid +220 on the money-line.


The Bears came close to winning late, but settled for a 23-17 loss to the popular Falcons who had 84 percent of all tickets written at William Hill sports books. The chain of 108 books also had 75 percent of their tickets written on the Steelers who escaped with a 21-18 win at Cleveland where rookie QB DeShone Kizer (20-30-1-1- 222) looked pretty good. Or least he gave some optimism compared to recent years at the QB position.


"The Bears would have been the game of the day for us if they won," said Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, "but it still all turned out well for us, coupled with the Browns and Jaguars getting there."


It was the same story all around town as the books struck back early with revenge from 2016's awful NFL season.


"We did pretty good today," said CG Technology VP of risk Jason Simbal. " We won our two biggest games of the day with the Browns and Bears, but we gave some of it back late with the Panthers and Packers covering."


Most books gave a bunch back in the three afternoon games, but still held well heading into the late game with the Giants getting +5.5 at Dallas, and later +6 at a few shops.


"We needed the 49ers and we also needed the Colts while the Seahawks-Packers was evenly split with us seeing more Seahawks parlay action but more straight wagers on the Packers," Avello said.


The Colts were originally -3 when QB Andrew Luck was supposed to play, but the Westgate closed the Rams as the 4-point favorite without him and the Rams rolled to a ho-hum 46-9 win. Without Luck, these Colts looked to easily be the worst team in football. Keep him in mind with every wagering equation moving forward because he's worth 7-points to the number.


The Panthers (-5) won 23-3 at San Francisco and the Packers (-3) beat the Seahawks, 17-9, for their third consecutive meeting.


In then end, after the Cowboys' 19-3 win against the Giants, the books still came out ahead.


Something that was a regular occurrence with a free roll of NFL bettors in 2016, turned out nice for the books in 2017. The bookmakers that lost some hair while it turned gray, and had a lot of sleepless nights last season thanks to the public piling on, can have carefree night of sleep knowing they won the first of 17 weeks a winner.


Under was the word with 10 of the 12 games staying Under. Six of the 12 games stayed Under with four of the underdogs winning outright.


There wasn't a lot unveiled for each team other than the Bengals looking awful at home in 20-0 loss to the Ravens and the Colts being terrible without Luck. All the best for Week 2.

 

[CNOTES]

Buyer's Remorse - Week 1
September 11, 2017


Lessons Learned From NFL Week 1


That had to be one of the worst Week 1 slates I’ve seen in a long time. Most of the games were awful to watch, and there was perhaps no bigger surprise than seeing Cincinnati get skunked at home by Baltimore, where they’re notoriously good.


So what do we do when we’re trying to bet on football and make money? We gain from our mistakes and move forward.


Presenting Buyer’s Remorse Week 1, a look back at five of Sunday’s biggest surprises and how they measured up against the odds at BetOnline.ag.


Let’s live and learn.


Cleveland Browns +10.0 over Pittsburgh Steelers


The Browns surprised everyone by covering a +10.0 line that not too many backed. DeShone Kizer looked like a lost lamb at times because the offensive playbook was far too complicated for a rookie, but overall he seemed capable enough to make Cleveland a stronger play than you’d think. The Browns also held the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards, ranking them as the best ground defenders of Week 1. And they did that without top overall pick Myles Garrett, who could be back soon.


Cleveland has possible layups against Baltimore and Indianapolis and are due for some more credit. If the BetOnline.ag oddsmakers don’t give them that credit, then it’s money on the table for you.

Detroit Lions +2.5 over Arizona Cardinals


Because the Cardinals have two-time Coach of the Year Bruce Arians at the helm, there’s always the thought that they’re going to be a threat. Toss in big names in the secondary, and a capable front-seven, and you should have a viable playoff threat. On Sunday, we saw just how bad they could be. Add to that the fact that the Cardinals have lost running back David Johnson for what might be the entire season as well.


Things just went from bad to worse for Arizona, while Detroit found a way to win 35-23 regardless of a brutal first quarter that had everyone wondering if Stafford was worth that mammoth contract extension. Detroit might be a great live-betting team if they’re willing to put themselves in holes like they did in Week 1. They were the best fourth-quarter comeback team in 2016, and that’s a trend that might continue this year.


Chicago Bears +6.5 over Atlanta Falcons

Is Mike Glennon worth $16 million? After his performance on Sunday, I’d say he is. Jordan Howard should be ashamed for being too scared to catch a game-winning touchdown.


The problem is that the Bears might not have much more to show than their heroic comeback effort against a Falcons team that looks completely out of sorts without Kyle Shanahan calling the shots. I’m not willing to sell the Falcons up the river just yet, but it’s worth noting that they may not be the world beaters we took them for last season.


Chicago is interesting, and have my attention, but if everything is riding on Tarik Cohen saving this franchise as a 5-foot-6, 180 pound prodigy…I’ll pass. This performance by Chicago felt like a once-in-season game. They’re more likely to come crashing back down considering that they lost their most talented wide receiver – Kendall White – to injury.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.0 over Houston Texans


In a game that the Texans simply had to win, they couldn’t come up with a single ounce of positivity. They were brutal in the trenches on both sides, getting manhandled by Jacksonville’s offensive and defensive lines. I’d say this is more positive for the underrated Jacksonville Jaguars.


Houston has a lot of ground to make up, and I’m not even sure that Deshaun Watson can fix the problems. Teams that aren’t good up front are never solid bets. Houston is prime example of that, which is tragic because the city needed this win in a big way.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks


Speaking of bad offensive lines, how about the Seahawks. What was supposed to be the Game of the Week turned in to an absolute bore-fest as Aaron Rodgers went to work in the second half while Russell Wilson couldn’t get anything going. Seattle looked bad and overmatched up front, and I don’t see how any of that gets better moving forward with Rees Odiahmbo and Germain Ifedi looking completely outmatched on the edges of the offensive line.


Facing the Niners in Week 2 might offer some reprieve, but Seattle is by no means the legitimate Super Bowl contender we thought they might be. Their +1000 Super Bowl odds at BetOnline.ag are a complete no-no right now.