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Saturday's Bowl Outlook
December 12, 2017



The college bowl betting season kicks off on Saturday, Dec. 16with a five course meal of lesser known teams that you probably need help navigating. I don’t blame you – there’s a lot to track out there. Here are your quick and easy betting picks for what’s always a fun day of football.


Let’s get you off on the right foot.


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (1:00 p.m. ET)
Troy Trojans -7 over North Texas Mean Green



Former conference rivals clash in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl to kick off an always exciting college bowl season. A good two-thirds of the action is leaning towards Troy simply because they’re a better football team, but this line has wobbled by a half-point since opening, and it’s been leaning in the direction of North Texas.


That’s largely due to the fact that the Mean Green have an 8-5 against the spread (ATS) record, but any predictions on this game are based on the health of Jeffery Wilson. The explosive running-back for North Texas was injured and is unlikely to play. If he does, there’s a chance that North Texas covers but Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers will play in his final game after four years as a starter so emotions will be high. By the way, Troy has one of the best defensive units at this level. They’re worth the gamble to open up your post season college football betting.


American Cure Bowl (2:30 p.m. ET)
Georgia State Panthers +6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers



You probably steered clear of these two teams all season because they’re not noteworthy and they were both obnoxiously terrible against the spread, combining for a record of 7-16 ATS. The difference is that the mojo in Georgia State is a little stronger after they put a 6-5 SU season on the board after being a veritable punching bag for much of their existence. Western Kentucky has fallen off the wagon since losing head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue. They went 11-3 SU last season and have gone just 6-6 SU this year, with a 3-9 ATS record to boot. In short, the Hilltoppers haven’t met expectation by any stretch. It would be a miracle if they started in the American Cure Bowl.


Las Vegas Bowl (3:30 p.m. ET)
Boise State Broncos +7.5 over Oregon Ducks



People who bet on the college football post season often know that Boise State is a bit of a bowl betting darling. They’re 7-3 SU when playing in a bowl game and are coming off a brilliant MWC Championship win over Fresno State. The problem with Oregon here is that people have the misconception that they’re still “Oregon”. There is also the worry that Willie Taggart’s sudden departure to coach FSU is going to kill any momentum that the Ducks limped in to this game with. With a strong line, and Boise State boasting a lethal defensive front, it’s not illogical to think that the Ducks will get shot out of the skies in this one.


GILDAN New Mexico Bowl (4:30 p.m. ET)
Marshall Thundering Herd +6.5 over Colorado State Rams



Marshall is a program on the way back after posting a 7-5 SU regular season that included an 8-4 ATS record. A lot of that was because the defence allowed just 19.2 points all season long. Colorado State has a definitive weapon in receiver Michael Gallup, but the Rams are a perennial underachiever that never seem to get better or worse. They’re an overrated program in my opinion and have also lost three straight bowl games, two of which have come under coach Mike Bobo.


Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (8:00 p.m. ET)
Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5 over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders



There’s a lot of problems with betting on Middle Tennessee in the post season. For one, they haven’t won a bowl game in their last four tries, and have been blown out by an average of +15.8 points per game. The Red Wolves tout a ferocious front seven that is sack hungry, and their passing game ranked 6th in the nation with 341.2 yards per game. They also put up a Sun Belt leading 7-4 ATS record which is worth backing. Middle Tennessee always loves being average in these games, and that won’t get it done against a strong tier two program that is simply better on the field than their opponents.
 

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