Cnotes 2017 College Football Conference Previews !

[CNOTES]

2017 AAC Preview


2017 AMERICAN ATHLETIC PREVIEW


Coach Me Up


Entering its fourth year of existence, the American Athletic Conference remains the top Group of 5 League heading into the 2017 football season.


While the loop has struggled in bowl games, going 6-14 SU and 7-13 ATS, it has become a breeding ground for up-and-coming head coaches.


Tulsa’s Phillip Montgomery, SMU’s Chad Morris, and Memphis’ Mike Norvell are three promising young coaches on the rise, and we didn’t even mention Tulane’s Willie Fritz. Meanwhile, the 23 wins by Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo over Power Five or BCS Conference foes is the most of all Group of Five schools.


The AAC has five new coaches for 2017: Cincinnati's Luke Fickell, Connecticut’s Randy Edsall, Houston's Major Applewhite, Temple's Geoff Collins, and USF’s Charlie Strong.


And rest assured, East Carolina’s Scottie Montgomery is fully aware that the Pirates have missed out on bowl games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2004-05. Beware of the AAC. Its coaches take a back seat to no one.


Talking Points


-- Average attendance at American Athletic Conference home stadiums was 31,611, clearly No. 1 for Group of Five conferences, and right on the heels of 2015 when it averaged 31,842 in 2015, after an average of 21,193 in 2014. USF was up 41% in 2016 with a 10-2 record and a home game vs. Florida State. On the flip side, Temple fell 38% without facing Notre Dame. Other than BYU, East Carolina (44.113) had the largest average attendance outside the Power Five.


-- Danger ahead: since the AAC formation in 2014 the conference has struggled mightily in non-conference games following a SUATS loss, going just 4-26-1 ATS. And if they are not taking at least 7 points in these games they fall off the face of the earth, going 0-13-1 ATS. Gulp.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


EAST PREVIEW:


CINCINNATI (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/3, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEING FICKELL

A 3-1 start last season turned into a 1-7 disastrous finish and an absolute P.R. nightmare when head coach Timmy Tuberville went off on a disgruntled fan in front of cameras. As a result of the implosion, the Bearcats brought in longtime Ohio State assistant Luke Fickell to right the program and polish its image. Fickell also served as the Buckeyes’ interim coach in 2011 following the Jim Tressel fallout while guiding OSU to its first losing season since 1988. The good news is Fickell has defensive DNA in his blood and the strength of this Bearcats team appears to be its defense. Behind an experienced Power 5 coaching staff, cool hand Luke looks right at home in Cincinnati.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fickell was 1-5 ATS in games following a win as a head coach with Ohio State.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. UCF (10/27)


CONNECTICUT (Offense – *7/3, Defense –5/3, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OLD DOGS...NEW TRICKS


Like a stray dog returning home, former head coach Randy Edsall is back at UConn. With the Bob Diaco experiment officially history, Edsall returns to Connecticut for a second tour, this time trying to ignite an offense that was virtually non-existent in three seasons under Diaco. The 20 touchdowns they scored was lowest tally of any team in the nation in 2016. Edsall turns to former Auburn OC Rhett Lashlee – a Gus Malzahn protégé – and Villanova DC Billy Crocker for his new coordinators. The good news is five OL with starting experience are back. And remember: Huskies’ sophomores made a total of 127 starts in 2015, the most in the nation. Those young pups are now seniors.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies scored a total of nine first-quarter points (three field goals in two games) last season.


PLAY ON: vs. UCF (11/11)


EAST CAROLINA (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 7/3, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHERE’S THE BOUNTY?


Year One under head coach Scottie Montgomery was expected to be productive. After all, 51 upper classmen dotted the Pirates’ roster, including star WR Zay Jones and transfer QB Phillip Nelson. Neither disappointed with Jones leading the nation in receiving while Nelson, a protégé of quarterback specialist coach Terry Shea, finished 7th in completion percentage (67.9). Through it all the offense improved 53 YPG, but the defense – horse-collared with injuries – slipped 51 YPG. It didn’t help that ECU was also the worst team in the nation in turnovers gained (8) last season. The question is with Jones and Nelson gone, what can they to improve on last year’s three wins?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Pirates are 2-16 SU and 0-18 ATS versus conference foes with a winning record since 2010.


PASS


TEMPLE (Offense - 5/3, Defense – 4/1, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: #GREAT HIRE


When Florida DC Geoff Collins replaced Matt Rhule as the Owls coach this season, he almost immediately began using social media hashtags to show his footprint on the program. The one that has gotten most of the attention from the players is #the STANDARD, as they quickly learned that the standard expected from every player has been raised even higher this year. After fighting thru a 2-10 seaosn in 2013, Temple concluded the final two years of the Rhule regime with a pair of 10-win seasons. But because 50% of the starts made for the Owls last season were by seniors, Collins realizes everone must step up in 2017. The ranks are thin but the spirit is high.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: New Temple coach Collins is the only coach to be a Broyles award nominee – the nation’s best assistant coach - at three schools.


PASS


UCF (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 4/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: COOLNESS AT ITS BEST


After taking over a program that failed to win a game in 2015 and leading them to a bowl game, the big question is what does Scott Frost do for an encore? He was 24-2 as a quarterback at Nebraska. As a DC at Northern Iowa the Panthers went from 7-4 to 12-1. And while an assistant at Oregon, the Ducks went 79-15. So yes, the man knows how to win. It’s also no coincidence that the UCF freshmen made the 2nd most starts in the nation in 2015. After coming up big as sophomores last season, they are now juniors. With added improvement in store this year behind a powerful front seven, the question has been answered.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: UCF was the No. 2 team in the nation in red zone defense in 2016.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. East Carolina (10/14) - *KEY


USF (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 9/4, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: STRONG ARMED


One of 11 teams to win 11 games last season, USF set nearly 40 team records in 2016, including total yards (6,650), rushing yards (3,714), touchdowns (77), and scoring (569) in its best season ever. JR QB Quinton Flowers was named AAC Offensive POY while leading a school-record 10 players named to the all-conference team. While those are some mighty big shoes to fill, six of those players - including Flowers - return in 2017. Among the missing, though, is head coach Willie Taggart who moves on to Oregon. Enter controversial Charlie Strong, whose first task will be to rebuild a defense that actually regressed over 100 YPG last season. Just the way he likes it.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USF was the No. 1 team in the nation in 4th down conversion percentage last season.


PASS


WEST PREVIEW:


HOUSTON (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 8/2, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: APPLE SEEDS


It’s been said that Major Applewhite likes big challenges. In succeeding Tom Herman as the Cougars’ new head coach he has taken on a gargantuan task. On the heels of its best two-season effort (22 wins) in school history, Applewhite inherits two terrifically talented recruiting classes left behind by Herman, including 2016 Defensive Freshmen All-American of the Year, DT Ed Oliver, the most decorated recruit in Cougar history. Dynamo QB Greg Ward Jr. is gone, creating a big hole behind center. The hope is Texas A&M transfer QB Kyle Allen can live up to his blue-chip recruit hype. If new DC Mark D’Onofrio (Miami and Temple) can continue to plug holes, gargantuan just may turn to tiny.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Former Utah OC and Mississippi State QB coach Brian Johnson is Houston new offensive coordinator.


PASS


MEMPHIS (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FUENTE, WHO?


When Memphis won 8 games in Mike Norvell’s first year after replacing Justin Fuente in 2015, he set the bar high. Real high, considering it was the most wins by a first-year coach in school history. He was also the first coach to lead the Tigers to a bowl game in his first season, plus the first rookie head coach at Memphis to defeat a ranked team since 1975. Now, after 27 wins in three seasons, and with a boatload of starters returning, the upside for this fledgling program has never been higher. A quick glance of the schedule confirms that Memphis could be favored in as many as 10 games this campaign. Beware of the Tiger.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Memphis is 12-0 ATS as an underdog in regular season road finales.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (10/19)


NAVY (Offense - 4/2, Defense – 7/1, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NIUMATALOLO SPELLS SUCCESS


We could write a book about the Navy program every year, but due to space limitations, we’ll go with the Cliff Notes version. Ready? Since Ken Niumatalolo became head coach Navy in 2008, the well-disciplined Middies have never finished lower than 2nd in penalties per game. They also know how to win, going 144-92 in Coach N’s 19 seasons on the Navy sidelines. Last year they saw 102 games missed by key starters or contributors due to injury – and the Midshipmen still won 9 games! You can do that when you’re the No. 1 team in the land in 3rd down conversion percentage, and when you’ve got the horses to topple your first AP Top 10 team since 1984. And beware: Navy will enter the 2017 season on a three-game losing streak. It is Navy’s longest losing streak since 2014. Navy won 26 of their next 31 games after the previous three-game losing streak. Forewarned is forearmed.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Navy played nine FBS teams in 2016 that finished with eight or more wins (tied with North Carolina for the most in the country).


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (11/24)


SMU (Offense - *9/4, Defense – 5/3, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: GROWING UP LIGHTNING FAST


The Mustangs continued their upward ascent last season under head coach Chad Morris. Noteworthy in the Ponies’ annual improvement run last season was its first win over a Top 15 team since 1986. Morris’ non-stop triple option attack is loaded with returning starters, including exciting SO QB Ben Hicks and last year’s top eight targets, along with four-star LSU transfer Trey Quinn, who starred during spring camp. Defensively, depth and attrition became issues down the stretch in 2016. Five starters from that unit are gone, but no less than 16 contributors are back. Like we said last year, if the defense can hold the fort, the Mustangs should be ordering up bowl shirts by season’s end.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshmen have started a total of 101 games for the Mustangs last two seasons.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (10/7)


TULANE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HITTING THE RESET BUTTON


Perhaps no other coach in college football hits a groove like Willie Fritz does when it comes to his second-year with a program. According to Bill Connelly of SBNation.com, in his second year at Blinn College his team won the NJCAA title. In his second year at Central Missouri, the Mules went from 5-6 to 8-3. In his second year at Sam Houston State, the Bearkats went from 6-5 to 14-1. And in his second year at Georgia Southern, the Eagles secured their first bowl bid. Better yet, because Fritz played a ton of underclassmen last year, that youth turns to experience this year. Sure, they were the worst team in the nation in team passing, and 3rd down conversion percentage, last season. But rest assured, Willie is right where he wants to be this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Willie Fritz is 14-0 SU and 11-1 ATS versus .333 or less opponents.


PLAY ON: vs. Houston (11/18)


TULSA (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 6/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CATEGORY 5 WARNING


Tulsa’s high octane offense hit on all cylinders under head coach Phillip Montgomery - remember that name – when it became the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard rushers, and two 1,000-yard WRs in the same season. Even more satisfying for Montgomery, though, was the fact that the Hurricane defense actually improved over 100 YPG over the previous season. Throughout it all, an offense going full-speed for 60 minutes continued to percolate with its second straight Category 5 effort under Monty when its 527 YPG effort topped the 507 YPG posted in his first year with Tulsa. And oh yeah, Tulsa has scored 30-plus points in each of its last 11 games. Yikes.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tulsa is 29-7 SU and 28-8 ATS in conference games in which it scores 30 or more points.


PLAY ON: vs. Navy (9/30)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 ACC Preview


2017 ATLANTIC COAST PREVIEW


Two By Fours


The Atlantic Coast Conference is the only conference in the nation to have two football national champions in the past four years. Florida State took the final BCS National Championship after the 2013 season and Clemson claimed the 2016 National College Football Playoff title last year.


In addition, the ACC returns the Heisman Trophy winner for second time in four years with junior QB Lamar Jackson returning to lead Louisville in 2017. Florida State's Jameis Winston did so in 2014 after winning the 2013 Heisman Trophy. Jackson is the youngest athlete (19 years, 337 days) to win the Heisman Trophy, while Winston (19 years, 342 days) is the second youngest.


ACC Powering Up


ACC teams will play more games (22) against Power Five non-conference teams in 2017 than any of its peer conferences. The ACC will also have a higher percentage (.393) of its non-conference games against Power Five opponents than any other league.


In addition, the ACC will play more games against 2016 AP-ranked teams than any other conference. ACC teams will play more games in 2017 against non-conference teams (7) that were ranked in last year’s final Associated Press Top 25 than any other Power Five conference.

Including the 11 ACC teams that went to bowl games, no ACC team will face fewer than seven opponents that went to bowls in 2016, while eight teams will face eight or more opponents that played in the postseason. Through it all, a total of 11 ACC teams ended 2016 with winning records, the most of any FBS league and the most in ACC history. The next highest total by a conference was eight teams.


Orange Bowl Roll


The ACC has won the last five Orange Bowl games, the longest winning streak for a conference in the Orange Bowl in 72 years. The SEC won seven straight from 1938 through 1944.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


ATLANTIC PREVIEW


BOSTON COLLEGE (Offense – 9/3, Defense – 7/2, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHERE’S THE BEEF?


Last year, for the second straight season, the Eagles’ overall defense ranked in the nation’s Top 10. In fact, BC's 'D' finished No. 2 in team sacks (ahead of Alabama and Michigan). Unfortunately, as good as Yin was, Yang was simply deplorable. Steve Addazio’s squad averaged less than 300 YPG for the second straight year when it gained just 110 PYPG in conference play, while completing only 46.5% of its passes for a mere 4 TDs. The good news – or is it? - is that nine starters are back on offense, sans QB Patrick Towles. Better news is that star pass rusher Harold Landry (16.5 sacks) decided to forgo the NFL draft and returns in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Home field disadvantage? The Eagles are 0-6 SUATS as home underdogs since 2014.


PASS


CLEMSON (Offense – 5/4, Defense – 7/3, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A BIG DAB TO FILL


Reigning National Champion Clemson will have a tough row to hoe in 2017, as it will be the only FBS school to replace a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard running back, and a 1,000-yard wide receiver. That’s a LOT of production to supplant, especially while also carrying the biggest bulls-eye of all on its back in 2017. And don’t forget that the Tigers won seven games by a TD or less last season (tops in the nation). On top of it all, 10 Clemson players were either drafted or signed free agent contracts, making the Tigers one of only four programs that have had at least one 1st-round selection for five consecutive years. Good luck, Dabo!


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers have the nation’s third-longest current streak (71 games) without losing back-to-back games.

PLAY AGAINST: at Louisville (9/16)


FLORIDA STATE (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 10/3, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ROLLING IN IT


Talk about a loaded team: the Seminoles will likely need to take breathalyzers onto the field with them in 2017. FSU is one of only two teams (along with Bama) to have appeared in five straight BCS/New Year’s Six bowl games, while Jimbo Fisher’s 11.14 average wins per season leads all current head coaches. Meanwhile, QB Deondre Francois passed for more yards than any freshman in the nation last year (3,350) while guiding FSU’s top-ranked red zone offense. And the FSU defense has 186 career starts, including 15 players who have started a game! Remember, only 18.4 % of starts by Florida State last year were made by seniors. Yep. They’re rolling in it.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Noles have the longest current streak (76 games) without losing back-to-back games, dating back to the 2011 season.


PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (10/21) - *KEY


LOUISVILLE (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 7/1, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TURNING THE PAGE


2016 Heisman Trophy winning QB Lamar Jackson returns after becoming the first player in FBS history to pass for more than 3,500 yards and rush for over 1,500 yards in a season. As powerful as the offense once again promises to be in 2017, it’s the defense that will be the linchpin of the team. The stop-unit returns 12 players who recorded 20 or more tackles last season, including star LB Stacy Thomas with 85. In addition, Trevon Young, a senior LB who missed the entire season last year with a hip injury, is back. He was an all ACC performer in 2015. A major concern – only three teams tallied more giveaways (32) than the Cardinals last season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bobby the Louse is 0-15 SU away versus AP Top 15 ranked opponents.


PLAY ON: at Kentucky (11/25)


N.C. STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/4, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE PACK IS BACK


With 22 seniors on the roster – 11 of who are returning starters, including the entire DL – NCSU will field their most experienced team in school history. In addition, two seniors who sat out last season, but have started multiple games in their careers, join the fray. The defense, which owned the second best 1st-down defense and the 8th best rush unit, returns the entire starting front six. On the flip side, the veteran offense is keyed by H-back Jaylen Samuels, who has averaged 6.25 YPR and a TD every 5.9 carries the last two seasons, and Boise State graduate transfer QB Ryan Finley, who tossed for 3,059 yards and 18 TDS for the Pack in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolfpack is 23-3 SU and 18-5 ATS in games where they outgain their opponent under head coach Dave Doeren.


PLAY ON: at Florida State (9/23)


SYRACUSE (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 10/4, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: GETTING THERE, FAST

This from our crack fact-finding research department: Syracuse seniors started the 2nd fewest amount of games in the nation last season. As a result, head coach Dino Babers welcomes back a bevy of experienced, young talent in 2017 as 53.4 % of all Syracuse starts made last season were by underclassmen. As you know by now, we’ve come to expect good things from teams fitting this M.O. The hurdle this year, though, is that no less than 11 foes on the schedule appeared in a bowl game last season. Despite the salty slate, and last year’s season-ending crash, Dino is aching to lead this team to a bowl game. Don’t bet against him.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Syracuse amassed 5,290 yards under Dino Babers in 2016, the 2nd-highest total in the 127-year history of the program.

PLAY ON: vs. Pittsburgh (10/7)


WAKE FOREST (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 6/3, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WAKE UP CALL


If patience is a virtue, then Wake Forest should be a very advantaged team in 2017. Freshmen made a total of 71 starts in 2015, the 3rd most in the land. Then last year underclassmen accounted for 45.8 % of the team’s starts (10th most in the nation). A pronounced increase in the ground game finally emerged in 2016 when the Deacs gained 40 YPG more on the ground than in 2015, but that was largely attributable to the fact that Wake Forest was the only FBS school in the nation in 2015 whose top three rushers were all true freshmen. It's time for this suddenly experienced team to step up in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Demon Deacons have ranked 12th or worse in the ACC in scoring the last five consecutive seasons.


PLAY AGAINST: at Boston College (9/9)


COASTAL PREVIEW


DUKE (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 5/1, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE NUTCRACKER


Talk about a tough nut to crack. Not only will the Blue Devils face only ONE foe this year that owned a losing record last year, but also 11 of whom that were in a postseason game! Fortunately, QB Daniel Jones finished with the 5th-most passing yards of all freshmen in 2016. He was named the team’s MVP after matching or establishing 23 school records, including most offensive yards by a freshman (3,322). Head coach David Cutcliffe is widely recognized as a quarterback whisperer, having coached nine QBs who either earned all-conference honors or led their school to a bowl victory. In a ‘mission year’ this season, expect Cutcliffe to crack the code.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Duke is 4-5 SU versus ranked opponents under HC Cutcliffe. They were 0-47 SU versus the same prior to his arrival.

PLAY ON: at Virginia (10/7)


GEORGIA TECH (Offense – 8/3, Defense – 8/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TALL PAUL


As we alluded to on this page last year, Paul Johnson stands tall within the NCAA coaching ranks. He averages 8.85 wins per season, which ranks No. 9 among all current head coaches, and in his previous 19 years as a head coach, Johnson led his teams to either FCS playoffs or FBS bowl games 18 times. That’s impressive, to say the least. The key to his success is simple – run the ball down your opponent’s throat until they succumb. Four of the top five running backs return in 2017, but a new quarterback will be at the helm. Its Achilles' heel is a defense that allowed a .492 conversion rate on third down (3rd worst in the land) last season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In his 15 years as a FBS head coach, Paul Johnson’s teams have each averaged at least 5 Yards Per Rush per season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Virginia (11/4)


MIAMI, FL (Offense – 8/4, Defense – 8/4, 40 Lettermen


TEAM THEME: A HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT


For the first time since 2009, the Hurricanes finished the 2016 season ranked in the Top 25. With it, the return of head coach Mark Richt to his alma mater was met with cheers and applause in Miami. Richt is 90-43 in conference games in his career, while averaging 9.63 wins per season, which ranks No. 7 among all current head coaches. Sixteen starters are back from last year, including WR Ahmmon Richards, a 4.3 sprinter who pulled in 46 receptions for 866 yards to smash Michael Irvin’s single-season yards mark for a freshman last year. Yes, it’s safe to say the Canes are back on a winning path.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami tied with Old Dominion for the 2nd best team in the nation in fewest turnovers lost last season (10).


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Georgia Tech (10/12)


NORTH CAROLINA (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 7/2, 35 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BACK TO SQUARE ONE


As UNC head coach Larry Fedora likely reminds himself each night, it was nice while it lasted. It started after losing a star quarterback (after one year) to the NFL when Mitchell Trubisky was selected as the second player in this year’s NFL Draft. Also gone are workhorse RBs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan, along with three key WRs. But the biggest loss of all is not a player. It’s DC Gene Chizik, who decided to retire after two highly productive seasons in which the Tar Heels' defense improved 90 YPG after his arrival. Here’s hoping LSU transfer QB Brandon Harris lasts longer than Trubisky. Otherwise, it will be back to square one again for Fedora.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Larry Fedora is 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in regular season games vs. foes who were upset as a favorite in their previous game.


PASS


PITTSBURGH (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 4/1, 36 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A DOOZEY SURPRISE


It’s hard to imagine that Pat Narduzzi’s defense was the No. 119 team in the nation in red zone defense in 2016. To top it off, the architect and former DC from Michigan State’s most recent glory days, was also hit hard in the NFL Draft when he lost five starters, including QB Nathan Peterman (Bills), and RB James Conner (Steelers) among others. In all, over 50 % of the starts made for the Panthers last season were by seniors. Despite it all, Pitt was the only team to defeat two opponents ranked in the Top 5 of the final College Football Playoff rankings. With no back-to-back road games, expect that to be enough to build on.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: All of Pitt’s 10 losses under Narduzzi have occurred versus bowl teams that went 98-37 combined on the season.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Virginia (10/28)


VIRGINIA (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 8/2, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HOG-TIED


As we outlined here last year, new Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s hands were tied when he inherited a team that had recorded the largest decline in recruiting talent the previous five years of all Power 5 teams. And it showed up as expected last year like Punxsutawney Phil on Groundhog Day. A super soft defense (6th worst team in the nation in red zone defense) and an anemic rush offense (8th weakest in the land) left the Cavs little or no chance of succeeding. UVA did, however, manage to snap a 17-game road-losing skid, while Mendenhall improved to 4-0 ATS in his career as a dog of 20 or more points… numbers worth remembering.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cavaliers are 2-18 SU in their final two games of the season the last ten years.


PLAY ON: vs. Connecticut (9/16)


VIRGINIA TECH (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 8/1, 37 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BIG FOOT


Justin Fuente knew coming in that he had some mighty big shoes to fill as Virginia Tech’s new head coach last season. Replacing a legend like Frank Beamer is never easy. But to his credit Fuente delivered, leading the Hokies to their first double-digit win season in five years. Along the way, Virginia Tech not only improved all of its numbers convincingly on both sides of the ball, they took the College Football Playoff champion Clemson Tigers right down to the wire in the ACC title game as well. Thus, the question begs: What can Fuente do for an encore? Having defensive guru Bud Foster on his sideline makes it a moot point.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Hokies' current 24-game bowl streak is the longest in the nation.

PLAY ON: at Georgia Tech (11/11)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 Big 12 Preview


2017 BIG 12 PREVIEW


Title Time

At long last the Big 12 will have a conference championship game this season. The Big 12 title game will be December 2 at AT&T Stadium (Jerry’s World) in Arlington, Texas, a move that should increase the chances for a playoff team. Oklahoma went undefeated in Big 12 play last season and didn’t make the playoff.


Over the last eight seasons, the Big 12 football conference has had six different teams win a conference trophy. No other Power 5 conference has had as many different champions since 2009.

Bowl Me Over


The Big 12 concluded postseason games with a .667 winning percentage, the second-highest among all conferences. In addition, Big 12 defenses were the nation’s best in bowl games as they surrendered an average of 21.5 points, holding five of six opponents below their season average.


Plus, Big 12 offenses had the second-highest scoring average in postseason among the Power Five leagues at 29.0 ppg. Oklahoma’s current 10-year bowl skein is the longest in the nation.


No Cupcakes Allowed


After years of devouring non-conference cupcakes, the Big 12 is manning up in 2017. Nine of 10 teams (save Kansas) have dates with Power Five teams on the docket, including the likes of Ohio State, USC and Virginia Tech.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


BAYLOR (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 7/4, 66 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW RHULES


The first step in torching any traces of the Art Briles era – a coach who was 50-15 SU during his final five years with BU – was the immediate hire of squeaky-clean, hard-nosed Matt Rhule, former Temple head coach. The first thing he’ll clean up was the fact that the Bears led the nation in most penalty yards per game in 2016, and were the 3rd most penalized team in 2015. FYI: Rhule’s Owls ranked 21st in the land in fewest penalty yards per game last year. Baylor was rocked by player defections following the end of last season, but Rhule signed 27 recruits and a number of them will likely find playing time in 2017. Rhule’s troops were grinders at Temple, averaging 69 plays per game the last two years. Conversely, the Bears' up-tempo offense tallied 85 plays per game over the same span. Our guess is we’ll hardly recognize the players in Bears uniforms… just the way the brass wants it.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bears are 30-0 SU in their first six games of the season the last five years.


PASS


IOWA STATE (Offense – *5/1, Defense – 7/1, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SOUP’S OUR MAN


Sophomore coach Matt Campbell’s work with the Cyclones in his inaugural season last year proved he's the right man for the job. Inheriting a program with depleted numbers on both sides of the ball, the Cyclones displayed gradual improvement throughout the season. Iowa State played the 2016 campaign with 38 combined starts from true or redshirt freshman (only 20 teams had more). On defense, the Cyclones also improved, holding five of their final seven opponents to under their season scoring average. FYI: For the second year in a row, the Cyclones boasted a freshman running back who led the team in rushing as Mike Warren and David Montgomery bring talent and experience aplenty. Once Campbell is able to knock down a ranked foe (Cyclones 0-21 SU against the same) it will be safe to say he is ‘the man’ in Ames.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cyclones suffered four losses by a TD or less in 2016.


PLAY ON: at Kansas State (11/25)


KANSAS (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 5/3, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BUILDING BLOCKS


Despite the usual mix of expected blowout losses and close-call defeats in 2016, Kansas finally managed to crack the win column in head coach David Beaty's 2nd season in Lawrence. KU’s first 8 losses last year were against schools that were 62-9 combined in 2015. The big news? Beaty is making inroads on the recruiting trail landing a consensus Top 20 2018 Class, while even extending offers to the Classes of 2019 and 2020. Beaty understands that Kansas is a school that has to do this sort of thing, build relationships with kids early on so they can have a chance at signing them before the “power schools” come calling. They also have to begin to learn to win conference games, where they are 5-65 SU since 2009. Beaty’s rebuild is on.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ball security? Hah! Kansas was the worst team in the nation in most turnovers lost last season (36).


PLAY ON: at TCU (10/21)


KANSAS STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 6/3, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: KIDS R US


As we alluded to last year on this page, Bill Snyder is on a youth kick. A total of 47 redshirt or true freshmen combined to make their first start in 2015. To top it off, the 2016 team was the youngest in Snyder’s 25-year career at KSU, with a combined 135 starts coming from freshmen (42) or sophomores (93), including DE Reggie Walker – the Big 12 Freshman Player of the Year. And lest we forget, the Wildcats are the best team in the nation in non-offensive TDs with 106 since 1999 – plus they’ve scored on 42 kickoffs and punt returns since 2005, 14 more than any other FBS school. Yeah… Gramps can coach.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wildcats are the only team to rank in the Top 15 nationally in red zone offense each of the last three seasons.


PLAY AGAINST: at Texas Tech (11/4) - *KEY


OKLAHOMA (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 7/1, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: AND LIKE THAT... HE’S GONE


No, not Keyser Soze from 'The Usual Suspects.' We're talking about Big Game Bob Stoops, who shockingly resigned as Oklahoma's head coach on June 7th. In Stoops' 18 years at the helm, OU won a national championship and had more Big 12 titles (10) than home losses, while averaging 10.5 wins per season. Lincoln Riley, 33, takes over after two seasons as the Sooners' OC. Under his direction, OU led the country in team passing efficiency in 2016, and returns 99.4% of last year’s passing yards (read: QB Baker Mayfield), plus all five starting OL. Lincoln, though, has never been a head coach, so this will be a huge test. With Oklahoma entering 2017 riding a nation's-best 10-game win streak, perhaps Stoops is right to say, "Now is the ideal time to make this transition." We'll see.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: OU is the highest scoring football program of all-time, and its 7.5 yards per play in 2016 rank as 2nd most in school history.


PLAY ON: as a dog at Ohio State (9/9)


OKLAHOMA STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 5/2, 39 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LETHAL WEAPON 3


When a baseball team possesses three home run hitters at the No. 3, 4, and 5 spots in the order, they are considered offensively threatening. When a college football team owns three similar caliber players at its QB, RB, and WR positions, they are lethal. In Mason Rudolph, Justice Hill, and James Washington, OSU has the best quarterback-running back-wide receiver trio in the Big 12 – and perhaps the nation – heading into 2017. Collectively, they played together for one of only two schools in the nation with a 4,000-yard passer, and 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver (Clemson was the other). Watch out for the Cowboys!


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS off back-to-back wins versus a foe off back-to-back losses under Mike Gundy.


PLAY AGAINST: at Texas (10/21)


TCU (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 7/1, 55 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LEAP FROG


It’s safe to say the Frogs were hopping mad (sorry about that) after falling from 11 wins in 2015 to 6 last season when the offense slipped 11 points and 100 yards per game. As a result, TCU suffered only its second losing season in 16 years behind head coach Gary Patterson. Patterson went to work, hiring Sonny Dykes, the former California head coach, and son of longtime Texas Tech head football coach Spike Dykes, as his offensive analyst/consultant. After winning six one-possession games in 2015 (2nd most in the nation), and then reverting to 1-3 in the same games last year, look for Patterson’s squad to revert back to their winning ways in 2017. STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In the two losing seasons Gary Patterson has endured at TCU, his troops went 11-1 and 12-1 the following years.

PLAY ON: at Arkansas (9/9) - *KEY


TEXAS (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 10/4, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FRESH NEW FACES


After starting 3-4 each of the last three years – all losing seasons – Charlie Strong was dispatched and Tom Herman was hired to turn the tables in Austin. The glowing look on new head coach Herman’s face is hard to dismiss. That’s because only 16.3% of the starts made by the Longhorns last year were by seniors – the 5th fewest in the nation. The reason being is underclassmen accounted for 54.4% of all teams starts by the Horns in 2016, the 2nd most in the nation. In fact, UT freshmen have now started 109 games the past two seasons, tops in the nation. Five losses by a TD or less in 2016 made the difference between 2017 being Charlie Strong’s 4th season on the 40 Acres versus Herman’s first. Thus, you can understand Herman’s desire to get this party started.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Longhorns haven’t suffered four consecutive losing seasons since 1938.


PLAY AGAINST: at Baylor (10/28)


TEXAS TECH (Offense – 9/4, Defense – 7/1, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FIRST AND LAST


The Red Raiders were the nation’s No. 1 ranked team in total offense in 2016. They were also ranked last (No. 128) in total defense, which made TTRR an ‘Over’ machine all by themselves. Unfortunately, they lose the cannon-like arm of star QB Patrick Mahomes, who left early for the NFL (1st round, Kansas City Chiefs). More important, though, is Kliff Kingsbury’s ridiculous disguise of a defense, one that has surrendered over 500 YPG in three straight seasons. How bad is it? It’s so bad, opponents rushed the ball for 40 or more attempts in 29 of 37 games in that span. The good news is freshmen played in a total of 104 games. That should help this year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: SR QB Nick Shimonek has served as a backup to four QBs in the NFL: Jake Ruddock, C.J. Beathard, Davis Webb, and Patrick Mahomes.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baylor (11/11)


WEST VIRGINIA (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 3/0, 36 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TOOL TIME


With the 3rd highest percentage of starts by seniors of all FBS teams last season (60.1%), HC Dana Holgersen will be forced to re-tool his troops in 2017. Helping out will be Jake Spavital, who begins his first year as OC, returning to WVU after stints at Texas A&M and California. He’ll be operating without QB Skyler Howard who graduated with 7,302 yards and 60 TDs in his career. Howard’s replacement is Will Grier, who transfers from Florida where he started six games as a redshirt freshman. The good news is the Mounties return three of their top four running backs, led by Justin Crawford (1,100 yards), the returning rushing leader in the Big 12.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers from Morgantown are 9-1 ATS as conference underdogs from Game Ten out.


PLAY ON: as a dog at Oklahoma (11/25)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 Big Ten Preview
June 19, 2017


2017 BIG TEN PREVIEW


We’re Back


The 2017 campaign will feature 33 All-Big Ten players (seven first-team, 12 second-team, 14 third-team) and 46 honorable mention selections from last season.


The Big Ten had 35 draft choices. That total ranked fourth among the Power Five conferences, as the SEC led the way with 54, followed by the ACC 43 and the Pac-12 with 36. Michigan led the nation with 11 players selected in the draft, while Ohio State had seven players heard their name called in Philadelphia.


And once again the Big Ten has not had a QB taken in the 1st round since Penn State’s Kerry Collins in 1995.


Welcome Aboard


Just like last year, the Big Ten welcomes three new head coaches in Indiana’s Tom Allen, Minnesota’s P.J. Fleck and Purdue’s Jeff Brohm.


Allen joined the Indiana staff as an associate coach last season. He’s a 25-year coaching veteran who led a dramatic defensive turnaround for the Hoosiers, just as the he done at Ole Miss and South Florida... Fleck’s was 1-11 in his first year with Western Michigan before going 13-1 last season... Brohm comes from Western Kentucky where his Hilltoppers went 30-10, including 19-5 in conference games.


Five current Big Ten mentors have been college head coaches for 10 years or more – Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz (20 seasons), Nebraska’s Mike Riley (15), Ohio State’s Urban Meyer (14), Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio (12) and Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald (10).

Bowled Over


Eleven Big Ten teams will square off against at least one non-conference team that played in a bowl game last season, with 17 total games against squads coming off bowl trips. Indiana is the only school to not make the list. Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers will each face two non-conference bowl teams in 2017.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


EAST PREVIEW


INDIANA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 9/3, 62 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A COMFORTABLE PAIR OF NEW SHOES


Indiana engineered one of the top defensive turnarounds in the country last year when, despite taking on four Top 10 opponents, the Hoosiers managed to improve 11 PPG and 130 YPG. It was good enough to land defensive associate coach Tom Allen his first college head coaching position. The good news is, thanks to former coach Kevin Wilson, Allen inherits the highest-rated recruiting classes in school history over the past five seasons. Mike DeBord, OC at Tennessee the past two seasons, joins Allen’s staff. Back in the day, DeBord tutored Tom Brady at Michigan, and will work with talented 6’ 6” SR QB Richard Lagow, who aired it out for 3,362 yards and 19 TDs for IU last year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Over the last 22 years, the teams for which Allen has been a member of the coaching staff have posted a combined 222-69 record (.763).

PLAY ON: at Penn State (9/30)


MARYLAND (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 8/2, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SPINNING A NEW TUNE


Regarded as one of the brightest young coaching minds in college football, DJ Durkin quickly changed the culture and brought instant energy to the Maryland program last season when the Terps doubled their win total and earned a bowl bid in his first year on the sidelines. Durkin also showed his recruiting prowess by signing a consensus Top 20 class in 2017. The class, which included eleven 4-star signees, and five members of the ESPN 300, ranked among the best in program history. A former star LB at Bowling Green where he captained the team and led it in tackles, this DJ is a star in the making. And the Terps are on the rise.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Terps are 0-8 SUATS following a win from Game Seven out the last four years.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. UCF (9/23)


MICHIGAN (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 1/0, 55 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: IN THE NAME OF THE FATHER, THE SON AND…


A team that started the season 8-0 last year before closing out 1-3, UM could be in a world of hurt in 2017. That’s because Wolverine seniors accounted for the highest percentage of starts of all FBS teams last season (76.6%). It’s a wickedly high number and it means that Jim Harbaugh will need to rely on a bevy of underclassmen to compensate this season. Gone are 138 receptions, more than 1,900 yards and 13 touchdowns just between two senior WRs and TE Jake Butt. That said, Harbaugh has now brought in consecutive Top-10 recruiting classes. Remember, we saw this same pattern last season when Ohio State returned barefoot with only 6 total starters returning – and all they did was land a spot in the College Football Playoffs. And don’t forget, the SU winner ‘In The Stats’ is 24-2 in UM games with Harbaugh as its head coach. After an offseason trip to visit the Pope in Roma, they'll lean on any sanctification they can get.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 11 UM players selected in this year's NFL Draft were the most in school history, and the most of any team in the Draft.


PASS


MICHIGAN STATE (Offense – 4/1, Defense – 4/1, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHO’S GONNA FILL THEIR SHOES?


As we outlined on this page last season, a fortuitous band of Spartans won 7 one-possession games in 2015 – the best in the nation. They went 0-3 in those same games last season. It came back to bite them when Mark Dantonio suffered his first losing season with MSU, falling from 12 wins to 3 in 2016. The epitome of a ‘Mission Team’ this season, Sparty should be in a nasty mood. The bad news is over 50% of the starts made for the Spartans last season were by seniors. Thus, improvement from a defense that had just 11 quarterback sacks and 13 forced turnovers last year (as opposed to 37 and 28 respectively in 2015) is mandatory. Beware: with an impending NCAA investigation swirling over sexual abuse by players (including 10 four-star recruits) this program might suddenly have “Baylor” written all over it.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Spartans dropped from fourth in the nation in turnover margin in 2015 to 101st – at -0.42 – in 2016.


PLAY ON: vs. Notre Dame (9/23) - *KEY as a dog


OHIO STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/4, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: URBAN’S NEW MODERN DEVELOPMENT


That the Buckeyes again returned to the CFB Playoffs last year despite a staggering lack of experience was truly remarkable. 1,000-yard RB Mike Weber was one of two first-team, two second-team and one honorable mention Freshman All-American starters on Urban Meyer’s squad last season, one that played 29 freshmen. Not so shockingly, only 5.6% of the starts made by the baby Buckeyes last season were by seniors – the fewest in the land (compare that to 76.6% for Michigan – the most). With that, this season finds 40 upper classmen dotting the roster for new OC Kevin Wilson, the former Indiana head coach and offensive guru, led by All-American QB J.T. Barrett. Beware of this ready-for-prime-time group.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buckeyes will play no back-to-back road games in 2017.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Michigan State (11/11)


PENN STATE (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 7/2, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WINNING BIG


Penn State earned eight Big Ten wins in 2016 for just the second time in program history, and the Lions celebrated their first Big Ten title since 2008. A whopping 31 school records were eclipsed or tied during the Big Ten Championship season, one being four double-digit comebacks – which included rallying from a 21-point deficit in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin. Both QB Trace McSorley and/or RB Saquon Barkley set a majority of the aforementioned records, and both return in 2017. Also back is PK Tyler ‘Automatic’ Davis who has nailed 30-of-32 career field goals, with both misses being blocks. He's also made all 73 of his PAT attempts.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Penn State and Wisconsin are the only Big Ten teams that have posted winning seasons the last 12 consecutive years.


PLAY AGAINST: at Ohio State (10/28) - *KEY


RUTGERS (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 8/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BURNT BEYOND RECOGNITION


It’s hard to imagine there was an offense worse than Boston College’s popgun attack last season, but Rutgers actually ranked dead last in the NCAA in total offense (including red zone offense). And it’s difficult envisaging a worse effort than what the Knights delivered in 2015 when they lost by 20.5 points and 167 yards per game in Big Ten play. But, hey, when you’re outclassed from head to toe by every team in your conference, there's always room for more. Rutgers was so pitiful in Chris Ash’s first season in New Brunswick they were actually dismantled by 30.5 PPG and 230 YPG while losing all nine Big Ten battles. Talk about being charred.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rutgers suffered the worst two-game scoring span last year (to Michigan and Ohio State) by an FBS school since 1939.

PLAY ON: at Illinois (10/14)


WEST PREVIEW


ILLINOIS (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 4/0, 32 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LOVE, THE SECOND TIME AROUND


There was little love in the air at the conclusion of the 2016 Illinois football season, Lovie Smith’s 1st year with the program. Because of his decision to start the second-most amount of freshmen in the country last year (29.2 percent of players that started games for the Illini), his troops were ranked No. 127 (2nd last) in the nation in first down offense, and also No. 127 in 3rd down conversion percentage. Five players with significant experience return up front. If star WR Mike Dudek, former Big Ten Freshman POY, can fight his way back from a gruesome knee injury suffered in 2015, the underclassmen just might come to Lovie’s rescue in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Illinois is 3-31 SU and 11-23 ATS in its last 34 Big Ten games versus .500 or greater opponents.


PLAY ON: at Purdue (11/4)


IOWA (Offense – 7/4, Defense – 8/3, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LET’S GO BOWLING


After just missing a berth in the 2015 College Football Playoffs, the Hawkeyes ‘regressed’ to 8-5 last season. It marked the 14th bowl appearance in 18 seasons for the Hawkeyes under Kirk Ferentz. Unfortunately, Captain Kirk loses star QB C.J. Beathard – 20-5 SU as a starter during the regular season – to the NFL. However, SR RB Akrum Wadley, Iowa’s leading rusher with 1,081 yards and 10 TDs a year ago, returns. The best news, though, is that four starters from an offensive line that won the Joe Moore Award – given to the best OL in the nation – are back. With eight starters back on defense, Ferentz is well positioned to land another bowl berth in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Kirk Ferentz shares the distinction of being the longest-tenured head coach in the nation.

PLAY ON: at Northwestern (10/21)


MINNESOTA (Offense – 7/2, Defense – 6/1, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ROWING A NEW BOAT


Minnesota is located in the land of lakes and captaining one of the new boats in the Big Ten football waters this season will be P.J. Fleck, named as the new skipper of the Gophers. The former Western Michigan head coach makes the transition from the MAC to the Big Ten with a core team that won nine games last season. Fleck went 1-11 in his first year with the Broncos, and 13-1 in his final season. The biggest loss, though, is the Ekpe brothers from the defensive line. Thankfully, the first seven games on the schedule include only one winning team from last season. The remaining five contests are all against bowl teams from 2016. Hopefully by then, the Gophers will have learned how to row the boat.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Gophers are 17-2-1 ATS as conference underdogs since 2012.


PLAY AGAINST: at Northwestern (11/18)


NEBRASKA (Offense – 7/5, Defense – 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: COACH ME UP


With Nebraska owning 385 victories over the past 40 seasons (tops in the land), HC Mike Riley is always feeling the heat. As a result, he made key hires in the offseason, bringing in Bob Diaco from UConn as his defensive coordinator, and Bob Elliott from Notre Dame as his secondary coach. They served together on the 2012 Fighting Irish defense that was 12-0 and played in the BCS Title Game. Diaco won the 2012 Broyles Award and is recognized as one of the college game's top defensive minds. Meanwhile, Riley owns 16 wins over ranked foes in 16 seasons as a college head coach. It all makes Tulane transfer QB Tanner Lee’s job that much easier.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Mike Riley has 43 overall years of coaching experience, the second-most among any active FBS head coach.

PLAY AGAINST: at Oregon (9/9)


NORTHWESTERN (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/3, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: IN GOOD HANDS


When Indianapolis selected LB Anthony Walker in this year’s NFL Draft, history was made: Walker became the first Wildcat drafted after leaving school early. The junior amassed 227 tackles, including 30.5 for a loss, at NU. The message is that Northwestern is an academically focused institution that is now getting top athletes. It’s not HC Pat Fitzgerald’s job to prepare players for the NFL. His job is to build the best football team he can to represent Northwestern. And because he’s exceeded expectations, Fitzgerald signed an extension to remain NU’s coach through 2026. With 17 starters returning from a bowl-winning team, the school is in good hands.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Pat Fitzgerald has not had a player selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft since taking over at NU 11 years ago.


PLAY AGAINST: at Illinois (11/25)


PURDUE (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 8/2, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LOVE POTION NO. 9


New head coach Jeff Brohm was needed in West Lafayette like a transfusion for a dying vampire. Purdue fell to 9-39 in four years behind Darrell Hazell. To which we wonder: how did he last four years? Check these rancid numbers: despite having the most returning starters in the Big Ten last year, Purdue won one conference game. They finished last in the nation in turnover margin (-17) and averaged 96.2 rushing YPG in conference play last season – dead last. Hence, it's no surprise to learn from Ralph Michaels of Cal Sports that the Boilermakers have played UNDER their season win total each of the last five years. Good luck, Jeff.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Purdue was 1-8 SU in one-possession games versus FBS foes under former head coach Darrell Hazell.


PASS


WISCONSIN (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/3, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NO PRESSURE HERE


To say Badgers head coach Paul Chryst was up against it when he replaced Gary Andersen in Madison two years ago would be an understatement. After all, Andersen won 20 games in two seasons. That was after Bret Bielema averaged nearly 10 wins a season in his seven years with the Badgers before Andersen’s arrival. So how has Chryst responded to the self-imposed pressure? By averaging more wins per season than both Andersen and Bielema. With no Ohio State sighting, and only six foes on this year’s itinerary with a winning record in 2016, it would be nothing short of disappointing should Chryst win less than his usual 10 games this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Badgers' 15 consecutive bowl appearances is tops in the Big Ten.


PASS

 

[CNOTES]

2017 C-USA Preview
July 2, 2017

2017 CONFERENCE USA PREVIEW


Lineup Tweak


With UAB back in the Conference USA this season, the loop will now operate with 14 teams. Each school will play every team in its division once for six games, while playing two crossover opponents from the opposite division.


We Won’t Back Down


Conference USA teams refuse to shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition, and this season is no exception. Among the teams on this year’s schedule are Arizona, Baylor, Florida, Iowa, Kansas State, Mississippi State, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Stanford, Tennessee, Virginia Tech, and Wisconsin.


A total of 28 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season.

We’ll Bowl You Over, Too


Last season, Conference USA sent a record seven teams to bowl games. In the process, Conference USA posted its sixth consecutive winning season in bowl play and two programs - Louisiana Tech and WKU - are among nine schools that have won a bowl game in each of the past three seasons, joined by Clemson, Georgia, Stanford, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin.


C-USA is 22-11 SU and 20-12-1 ATS over the last six years in bowl games. No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl SU and ATS win percentage than the C-USA the last six years.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


EAST PREVIEW


CHARLOTTE (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 6/1, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: DOUBLE YOUR PLEASURE


The youthful 49ers were FBS’ newest spring chickens in 2015 when they debuted and won two games. They doubled that output last season. Better yet, six of their eight CUSA titles were either wins (3) or one-possession losses (3). On the surface it appears Brad Lambert’s veteran staff (over 150 years of experience) has this squad fast-tracked, but before they continue an expected uptick they will need to address a defense slipped from 94th to 108th last season. Gone are 22 members from a senior class that was part of the Niners’ first team in 2013. Now a young core of sophomores and juniors are set to take over. A soft schedule figures to help.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since becoming an FBS school, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in its final six games of the season.


PLAY ON: at Florida International (9/30)


FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 8/2, 63 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TRAVELING A NEW LANE


Like their cross county rivals, FIU, FAU made a celebrity hire in controversial Lane Kiffin as its new mentor. The former Tennessee, USC, and Oakland Raiders head coach, Kiffin inherits a pair of strong recruiting classes from his predecessor, Charlie Partridge. In fact, this year’s junior class led the nation with 16 true freshmen starters two seasons ago while last year’s squad featured 68 underclassmen. And speaking of last year’s team, through the first seven games last season the Owls started a different OL all seven games. Meanwhile, RB Devin “Motor” Singletary became the first freshman in Owl history to break the 1,000 yard plateau last year when he rushed for 721 yards, 8.1 Yards Per Rush, and 10 TDs over the final 4 games of the 2016 season. With no back-to-back road games and with the addition of FSU stud transfer WR De’Andre Johnson, the experienced Owls are perched for success.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 6-18 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 2-8 the last two seasons

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Middle Tennessee (9/30)


FLORIDA INT’L (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 9/3, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEAMING BUTCH IS BACK


Celebrated head coach Butch Davis takes over the FIU football program, and he couldn’t be happier. The 65-year old Davis has compiled a 79-43 overall record in 10 years as a college head coach, including three Big East Championships while coaching the University of Miami. What Davis knows is that the FIU campus is within 40 miles of 15 south Florida high schools that have produced numerous state champions. Meanwhile, SR QB Alex McGough leads a deeply experienced team that ranks No. 1 in the nation by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly’s metrics – one that returns 85% production on both sides of the ball. It’s no wonder Butch is beaming.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: FIU is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS versus sub .333 conference foes without Ron Turner since 2010.


PLAY ON: at Rice (9/23)


MARSHALL (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 4/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MORE BLUNDERING THAN THUNDERING


After being the only Group of 5 program to record a third straight 10-win season in 2015, the Herd went from a thundering 33 wins in three seasons to a blundering 3 victories last year. Safe to say, Doc Holliday is walking around campus these days looking over his shoulder. Strangely, Marshall committed only 16 turnovers in 2016, the fewest for the program since it entered FBS waters in 1997. They also led the conference in 4th-down conversions (66.7%) as well. JR QB Chase Litton ranks on MU’s all-time Top 10 quarterback list. It remains to be seen, though, if the confidence can be restored to a team that may still be shell-shocked. We do know this, though: Marshall is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS as a home favorite with conference revenge.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Herd are 10-1-2 ATS as home dogs of more than 6 points.


PLAY AGAINST: at Florida Atlantic (11/3)


MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense - *6/32, Defense - 6/0, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: STILL WELL-STOCKED


SBNation.com’s Bill Connelly contends MTSU may field the two best offensive players in the conference in quarterback Brent Stockstill and receiver Richie James. After a promising 6-2 start last season, Stockstill (head coach Rick’s son) was lost to a broken collarbone and the Blue Raiders responded by losing three of their final five games. The super sharp southpaw (threw for a school record 3,233 yards and 33 TDs) and his go-to target, WR Richie James, are back but the biggest question mark surrounding this year’s squad is the rush defense, one that surrendered more than 200 RYPG in 2016. If that same rebuilt unit comes around, the blue smurfs could be deadly.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: MTSU has been bowl eligible eight times in 11 years under Rick Stockstill and competed in six bowl games.


PLAY ON: vs. Vanderbilt (9/2) – KEY as a dog


OLD DOMINION (Offense - 8/4, Defense - 6/3, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEYOND THEIR WILDEST DREAMS


Spurred by a six-game season-ending win skein, the Monarchs capitalized on force-feeding freshmen in 2015 (their first ever losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder) to win 10 games last year. Through it all, Old Dominion tied for 1st place in the East Division and made its first bowl appearance when it defeated Eastern Michigan in the Bahamas Bowl. ODU became the youngest program (eight years) to win 10 games in a season since the NCAA formed Division I in 1978. Not only did Wilder’s crew set a single-season team rushing record with 2,595 yards last year, they also tied Miami Florida for the 2nd best team in the nation in fewest turnovers lost (10). Wow. This year, though, it will be a major surprise to find them sniffing 10 wins again as they must replace their starting QB and all three starting linebackers. And in a scheduling quirk, ODU has no back-to-back home or back-to-back road games this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Monarchs have sold out all 54 home games in school history and own a 41-13 SU record in those games.


PASS


UAB (Offense - 0/0, Defense - 0/0, 0 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: #FREE UAB


They’re back. No thanks to bunked up claims from its president of losing money, the Blazers shut down the football program and missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons. But UAB and the city of Birmingham raised over $43 million for the reinstatement of its football program, and as a result they are back as full Division 1 FBS and Conference USA members in 2017. Bill Clark is back, too. In Clark’s first season as head coach of the Blazers in 2014, he turned around a program that was 2-10 the year before into a team that finished 6-6 and earned bowl eligibility for the first time since 2004. Yes, they are the feel good story for 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Per 247Sports, Clark has inked 18 three-star prospects in the last two classes.


PASS


WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense - *4/2, Defense - 6/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HILL STREET WOOS


Considered one of college football’s brightest offensive minds (and a former Hilltopper assistant), Mike Sanford was named the 20th head football coach at WKU. Sanford spent the previous two seasons as the OC/QB coach at Notre Dame and replaces Jeff Brohm who, after 30 wins in three seasons, took the money and bolted to Purdue. The good news for Sanford is that after leading the nation’s top scoring offense and securing WKU’s 2nd consecutive C-USA title, SR QB Mike White returns to The Hill as the nation’s No. 2 returning passer behind Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield. The Toppers also owned the nation’s No. 2 ranked rush defense last season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Hilltoppers have gone OVER their season win total each of the last five years.


PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (11/4) - *KEY


WEST PREVIEW


LOUISIANA TECH (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 5/3, 27 Lettermen)


In a year of foremost accomplishment last season, the Bulldogs won the CUSA West and the Armed Forces Bowl, recording their third straight bowl win (a first in school history). In the process, Louisiana Tech has won 19 of its last 24 conference games and is tied with WKU for the best winning percentage in games over that span. Unfortunately, there is a price to be paid for all of that success as the Bulldogs enter the 2017 season with only one start at the collegiate level from the entire group of quarterbacks (this from a team that had a senior starting signal-caller each of the last three seasons). Uh oh. Nonetheless, in the watered-down West, the Bulldogs are still the favorite to capture division honors. Don’t be surprised if they are not nip-and-tuck with Southern Miss, though.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs will face 7 bowl foes this season, but only 2 that owned winning records overall.


PASS


NORTH TEXAS (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 8/1, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FEELING GOOD AND MEAN AGAIN


You know you’re in trouble when you run a pass-first offense that can’t pass. Sure, UNT won five times as many games, and improved its numbers on both sides of the ball last season under first year head coach Scott Littrell. All feel-good numbers, for sure. The question is did they show dramatic improvement, or were they simply that bad in 2015 (the roster featured 36 non-scholarship players)? We do know that the 37-year old Littrell was considered one of the brightest offensive minds in college football when he was hired from North Carolina (served as assistant head coach of the offense). The bottom line is the Green are now in good hands with Littrell.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lean Green have gone 2-17 SU and 4-15 ATS away the last three years, outyarded by 175 YPG.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Army (11/18) - *Key if favored


RICE (Offense - 5/5, Defense - 8/3, 54 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BAIL UP, OR BAIL OUT


After winning 30 games the previous four years, and being just 6 wins shy of matching a school record for 36 victories over a five-year span, the 16 returning starter Owls stalled on their perch in 2016 as they managed just three wins, the fewest since 2009. It should be noted that after a stretch of five different lineups over its first eight games of the season, Rice started the same offensive line for the last four games of the season in 2016. It’s relevant considering all five of the OL represent the entire returning starter component of the 2017 offense. And don’t look now but somehow David Bailiff owns the 2nd most wins in school history.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rice is just one of two FBS teams that will face 2016 bowl teams in each of its four non-conference games this season.


PLAY ON: at UTSA (10/21)


SOUTHERN MISS (Offense - 6/2, Defense - 5/2, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FORWARD THINKING


When 1st-year head coach Jay Hopson witnessed his team go on a 34-0 run to turn a 35-10 deficit into a 44-35 victory over Kentucky in his debut game with the Eagles last season, he knew this squad had finally turned the corner for good. Yes, the powerful forward moving offense, led by RB Ito Smith – just the fourth Golden Eagle to gain more than 1,000 yards in multiple seasons – and WR Allenzae Staggers, was almost unstoppable. But their real success came from an unsung defense that not only improved 50 YPG in 2016, the stop-unit ranked No. 2 in the land in 3rd down conversion percentage defense. And they did it all despite recording a -17 turnover margin. Pretty impressive, to say the least. Remember that moving forward this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Eagles have gone bowling 20 of the last 23 years.


PLAY ON: vs. Charlotte (11/18) - *KEY


UTEP (Offense - *5/3, Defense - 7/1, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TURNING UP THE HEAT


Sean Kugler’s fifth year with the Miners will likely decide his future in El Paso. While production was up on both sides of the ball last season, the win tally slipped, and with just one winning season (7-6) to show for his effort, Kugler is suddenly feeling the burn. The building blocks are there, but a strong core of freshmen last year will need to mature in 2017. All-American SR Will Hernandez, who has started all 37 games in his career at the left guard position, anchors the OL. Meanwhile, JR QB Ryan Metz completed 64.7 percent of his passes last year, the 2nd-best completion percentage during a single season in program history. Stay tuned.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 9-54-1 SU and 15-45-2 ATS in the last 64 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.


PLAY AGAINST: at UAB (11/25) - *KEY if favored


UTSA (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 7/2, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A JOB WELL DONE


Head coach Frank Wilson guided Texas-San Antonio to six wins and its first-ever bowl game in his initial year at the helm last season. In the process, the Roadrunners tied an NCAA modern startup program record by playing in a bowl game in just their sixth season. And to top it off, UTSA returns four All-Conference performers from a year ago, including LB Josiah Tauefa, the CUSA Freshman of the Year. Better yet, living up to his moniker as one of the nation’s best recruiters, Wilson reeled in what was considered the top recruiting class in program history and the No. 1-ranked class in Conference USA, when he signed 23 highly decorated players (12 offense/11 defense) this offseason. Backers hope his squad can continue 2016's torrid 5-1 ATS season-ending skein.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 2-14 ATS in SU conference losses.


PLAY ON: at UTEP (10/28)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 Independents Preview
July 9, 2017


2017 INDEPENDENTS PREVIEW


Fearsome Foursome

Roll call among FBS Independent college football teams has quietly inched up to four teams currently competing among the ranks of Independents.


While the look and feel of this autonomous affiliation might appear small in size, its impact is substantial on the outcome in the chase the College Football Playoffs. Just ask the foes that will be taking on a super focused group of Fighting Irish, or the chancy Cougars from BYU this campaign.

Pushing The Needle


According to our well-oiled machine, since 2000 Independent teams that score 16 or fewer points in a contest are just 15-152 SU and 33-130-4 ATS in lined games – including 5-28 ATS as favorites.


On the flip side, they are 205-52 SU and 172-81-4 ATS in games in which they put more than 28 points in the scoreboard – including 68-21-2 ATS as dogs of 8 or more points.


Proceed accordingly.


Big Ugly Bowl Dogs


Each year one or two Independent teams find themselves earning bowl bids. And when they do they become attractive plays when taking more than 7 points during the post season.


That’s confirmed by the fact that Independent bowl dogs of 7.5 or more points are 13-6 ATS in these games since 1980, including 12-3 ATS when facing a foe that allows more than 12.5 PPG on the season.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


ARMY (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/2, 66 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TODAY’S ARMY


Something was in the air last year when the Cadets opened the season with three consecutive wins, including a pair on the road. This from a program that was a deplorable 1-24 SU and 4-20 ATS in its previous 25 true road games. The cherry on the cake came when Army ended a 14-year losing drought to Navy, and then went on to win its first bowl game since 2010 (the Cadets' last winning season). While QB Ahmad Bradshaw returns to run the offense, and 11 of the top 14 tacklers return to a unit that ranked No. 2 in first downs defense last season, our concern is that anything less than another bowl will considered a setback. Then again, only once in its history has Amy defeated Navy and won a bowl game the same year. They went 9-3 the following season. Unfortunately, our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below says otherwise...


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In the three seasons following a victory over Navy, the Black Knights have gone 1-11, 3-8, and 4-7 the next year.

PLAY ON: vs. Buffalo (9/9) - *KEY


BYU (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 6/3, 59 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED


One of only 10 programs to earn a bowl invitation every season since 2005, the Cougars will face 13 foes in 2017, but only four that owned a winning record last season. Three of them, though, finished in the nation’s Top 25. Gone this year are two of the most dynamic offensive players in school history – all-time leading rusher Jamaal Williams and dual-threat QB Taysom Hill, both of whom accounted for over 6,700 career rushing yards. The good news is JR QB Tanner Mangum will step back into his familiar starting role (13 starts last two years). Meanwhile, rookie head coach Kalani Sitake won nine games, including a bowl, last season. He fits like a glove.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars were the 2nd best team in turnovers gained (31), and the #3 team in red zone offense in 2016.


PLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (10/14)


NOTRE DAME (Offense – 8/4, Defense – 7/2, 39 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHAT THE HELL’S GOING ON HERE?


Rest assured, losing seven players to the 2016 NFL Draft – all in the first 4 rounds – took a toll on the Irish last season. Seven of eight losses came by just 8 points or less, and as improbable as it seems, the Fighting Irish are now a sister-kissing 15-15 SU in their last 30 games thanks to their 2nd worst season in 50 years in 2016. It was only the second time since 1963 the Irish finished with fewer than five victories. Brian Kelly even suffered his first loss with a Top 10 team against a non-ranked foe last season (Texas in the season opener). And it doesn’t get any easier as Kelly’s troops will face a murderer’s row schedule, taking on 11 bowl teams from 2016. All of which means Touchdown Jesus will likely need to bless new starting QB Brandon Wimbush… pronto.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last six times the Irish failed to deliver a winning season, they went bowling the next year all six times.


PLAY ON: vs. Navy (11/18)


UMASS (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 9/2, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?


After being tossed about in the turbulent FCS, then discovering significantly calmer FBS waters in 2012 as a member of the Mid-American Conference, the Minutemen were feeling giddy. A 10-40 record and two head coaches later, UMass is suddenly swimming in murky waters, terribly close to being an extinct FBS program. Along the way they managed to lose to Miami Ohio, a team that was on a 21-game losing streak. Gone are three senior offensive linemen, but that may be a good thing considering they allowed 45 sacks and were one of only five FBS teams that rushed for less than 100 YPG last season. Like Chubby Checker wanted to know… how low can you go?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen are 1-12 SU in one-possession games under head coach Mark Whipple.

PASS

 

[CNOTES]

2017 MAC Preview
July 17, 2017

2017 MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEW


The West Is Still Best


Entering its 71st year of gridiron competition, the MAC welcomes 12 teams as it settles into a balanced format for the second consecutive season.


According to 5Dimes.eu, these are the odds to win the 2017 conference championship:


East – Miami Ohio +500, Ohio U +500, Akron +1300, Bowling Green +3000, Kent State +8000, Buffalo +10000


West – Toledo +250, Western Michigan +250, Northern Illinois +1000, Central Michigan +1200, Eastern Michigan +1400, Ball State +5000


By doing the math it appears the power in the MAC resides in the West, which is noting new as the West has won the title 7 of the last 11 years.

Ballin’ Outside the Conference


As lightweight a reputation as the MAC has they have surprisingly managed to hold their own when installed as favorites outside the conference, especially as invaders.


That’s confirmed by the MAC’s sterling 24-7 SU and 19-11-1 ATS mark as non-conference road chalk since 2004 – including 11-1 SUATS from Game Four out.

Bowl Fodder


And speaking of non-conference opposition, the MAC has been little more than feedstuff for opponents in bowl games dating back to 2007, as they are just 14-38 SU and 18-32-2 ATS in post season play in that span.


Worse, when facing a bowl opponent off a season ending loss, the MAC lacks any kind of attack going a paltry 3-21 SU and 5-18-1 ATS in these games. It should be noted, though, they have picked up the slack of late, managing to go 3-4 SU and 4-2-1 ATS in these same games the past three seasons.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


MAC EAST PREVIEW


AKRON (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/2, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEEN THERE, DONE THAT


Head coach Terry Bowden is the dean of MAC coaches with the most career wins (164). Nationally, Bowden ranks sixth among active coaches in career wins. Meanwhile, the Zips welcome two-year SR starting QB Thomas Woodson behind center, along with former Pitt quarterback transfer turned WR Tre’Von Chapman. In addition, the NCAA granted RB Warren Ball a 6th year of eligibility. Good news also returns on both the offensive (4 starters) and defensive lines (2) in 2017. After losing 188 starts to graduated seniors in 2015 (tied for the most in the nation), Akron was forced to suck it up last year. The benefits should begin to surface in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Zips head coach Bowden is 2-16 SU and 3-14-1 ATS as a home dog against .500 or greater opponents.


PLAY ON: at Bowling Green (9/30)


BOWLING GREEN (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LO JINKS ERA OFF TO ROUGH START


The Mike Jinks era at Bowling Green got off to a really rough start last season. After winning 36 games the previous four years, the Falcons fell like birds without wings en route to a 4-win campaign, thanks mainly to an offense that ranked dead last in passing efficiency defense last season. Things were so bad that only lowly Kansas had more lost turnovers (36) in 2016. Yes, BGSU's offense slipped 140 yards and the defense dipped 40 yards under Jinks, but the Falcons were one of just 20 FBS teams to conclude the season on a winning streak of at least three games, rushing for 984 yards in those contests.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons went 36-3 SU in games where they won the stats, and 4-22 SU when they lost the stats over the last five years.


PLAY ON: at Miami Ohio (10/7)


BUFFALO (Offense – *6/4, Defense – 8/2, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SPEEDY D


The baby Bulls football team struggled through some growing pains in 2016 as Buffalo had 42 new players on the roster. Now with a more experienced group, 3rd-year head coach Lance Leipold is hoping the program can turn the corner. Last season UB’s defense was last in the MAC and 124th out of 126 in the nation against the run. Big plays were the problem: Buffalo gave up 10 runs of 40-or-more yards (only seven teams allowed more). UB returns a lot of experience on defense, but the influx of speed on display during the spring game is the most encouraging sign. “We’re trying to find more athleticism, more speed,” insists DC Brian Borland.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since joining the MAC in 1999, the Bulls are 6-54 SU and 21-38-1 ATS versus winning opponents.


PLAY ON: at Miami Ohio (10/21)


KENT STATE (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 6/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: EERIE FLASHES


Talk about a bizarre season. Per Bill Connelly of SBNation.com, you know it was a bad year when you cycle through five quarterbacks, one of whom ended up with 868 passing yards, 1,038 rushing yards, and 135 receiving yards (you read that right). And how about a true freshman walk-on running back that led the team in receptions! If all that wasn’t weird enough, the Flashes were ranked No. 128 – last – in the nation in first down offense last season… that on the heels of finishing No. 127 in 2015! Is it any wonder that through it all the offense actually improved 8 points and 36 YPG last season? Go figure.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Flashes are 3-30 SU and 8-24 ATS in games in which they score less than 24 points under Paul Haynes.


PLAY AGAINST: at Akron (11/21)


MIAMI, OHIO (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/2, 54 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CHARMIN-SOFT SCHEDULE


After opening the season with six straight losses in 2016, Miami made NCAA history by winning its final six games. In the process they landed a bid in the St. Petersburg Bowl where they went toe-to-toe with an SEC team. And while a letdown would normally be in order the following season, we can’t knee-jerk to that assumption with this suddenly experienced squad. For openers, a super-soft schedule in 2017, with only two winning teams from 2016, dots their itinerary. In addition, the Hawks welcome back 17 starters, including all three linebackers and three members of the secondary from a unit that finished first in total defense in the MAC. Whew.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After losing 15 consecutive games to winning opponents the previous five years, Miami went 2-2 last season.


PLAY ON: at Ohio (10/31)


OHIO (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/2, 39 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: STEADY AS A ROCK


In Frank Solich’s 72 years on this earth, including 12 with Ohio, the Bobcats have managed to win four MAC division titles, including one last season. Solich is certainly battle tested. The former head coach and running back at Nebraska has lifted OU from the depths of despair to a competitive program, one that seems to play an abundance of close games (nine decided by a TD or less last season). The difference between Solich and the revolving door of coaches in this league is he knows how to win them with (9 wins in the last three seasons coming in close call games). And it’s a primary reason the Bobcats have been bowling 8 of the last nine years. Furthermore, the Bobcats kicking game figures to be rock solid for the next few years with PK Louie Zervos and P Michael Farkas. Each earned Campus Insiders Freshman All-American honors last season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: OU will face only two teams this year that owned a winning record last season.


PLAY ON: vs. Central Michigan (10/7)


MAC WEST PREVIEW


BALL STATE (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 4/2, 34 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A NEU ERA UNFOLDS IN MUNCIE


Head coach Mike Neu – one of the Cardinals’ very own, the MAC Offensive Player of the Year as a quarterback with BSU in 1993 and former QB coach with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints – returns for his second season on the sidelines in Muncie. His Cardinals were ranked No. 3 in the nation in 4th down percentage defense last season, which helped contribute to a 47 YPG improvement on defense to go along with a 78 YPG upgrade on offense. Unlike 2015 when Ball State was outyarded -172 YPG in conference play (worst in the MAC), the Redbirds cut that deficit to -69 YPG last year. Safe to say a new era is underway at Ball State. FYI: the Cardinals averaged the fewest fans in attendance among all FBS teams last season, drawing just 7,789 per game. Big brother Michigan led the nation with 110,648. The average FBS attendance was 46,731.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The stats winner is 44-5 SU in Ball State games the last four seasons, including 12-0 last year.

PLAY ON: at Eastern Michigan (11/2)


CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Offense – 9/3, Defense – 6/2, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BIG, BIG JOHN


Talk about a consistent sort: CMU’s record over the last five years is 7-6, 6-6, 7-6, 7-6 and 6-7. Thus, in two seasons with the Chippewas, head coach John Bonamego has not only taken his team to two bowl games, but also battled tonsil cancer in the process. And it looks as if his run is not about to end anytime soon. “I plan to win, win now and be here for a very, very, very, very, very long time,” the coach said. The 2017 Chips return a 3,800-yard passer and his top five wideouts, plus most of the defensive two-deep. With that, we’ll safely pencil them in for another 6-or 7-win season… because we’re big Bonamego fans.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chippewas are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS away from Game Six out the last five years.


PLAY ON: at Kent State (11/14)


EASTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – *8/2, Defense – 8/2, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: E-TOUGH IS GOOD-ENOUGH


As predicted on this page last year, Eastern Michigan benefitted mightily from a sudden wealth of experience – and a young coach in Chris Creighton, who is on his way to bigger things in the near future. Back this season are 16 starters from last year’s bowl squad led by QB Brogan Roback, who threw for 2,694 yards in 10 games. Creighton’s “E Tough” philosophy was never more apparent than last season when the Eagles won games against Wyoming and Ohio U. Like Creighton says, his team will compete against “anyone, anytime and anywhere… even on a parking lot covered with broken glass.” Now that’s one tough team!


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eastern Michigan enjoyed its first winning season last year since 1995.


PASS


NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 9/2, 55 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEWARE OF THE SLEEPING DOG


Following a disappointing 5-win season in 2016, Northern Illinois becomes a certified ‘Mission Team’ this season. Looking deeper into their fait di accompli, the Huskies opened the campaign with 6 losses in their first seven games – including a pair of gut-wrenching triple OT defeats – before going on to win three of their final four contests. In the end, a skein of 6 straight MAC West titles vanished into thin air, but we’re not about to nail the coffin just yet. After all, how does one expect a team beset with quarterback injuries (five in the past 18 games) to compete? They may be just 5-10 SU in their last fifteen games overall, but no one is sleeping on these Huskies.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies are 27-7 SU and 25-8-1 ATS in their last thirty-four road games.


PLAY ON: at Toledo (11/2)


TOLEDO (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 7/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: READY TO RE-IGNITE


There is a lot to like about the Rockets this season. Head coach Jason Candle won 9 games in his debut last year and can’t wait to see what the future holds for this team. “We have a great group of senior leaders, and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball,” said Candle. It starts with SR QB Logan Woodside who led the nation with 45 TD passes last season. He’s the reason UT was the 2nd best squad in the land in team passing efficiency in 2016. In addition, RB Terry Swanson, who gained 923 yards last season, returns. With the OL returning five players that either started or saw significant action in 2016, look for a lift-off from Toledo this year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Four of Toledo’s 7 losing records over the last 36 years came in 2006-09 immediately following a point-shaving scandal.


PLAY ON: at Ohio (11/8)


WESTERN MICHIGAN (Offense – 5/3, Defense – 8/2, 25 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW FOOTPRINT


After winning its first championship in 27 years, and playing in its first title game in 16 seasons, new WMU head coach Tim Lester has big shoes to fill. But the WMU alum has big feet. Lester, who takes over for departed P.J. Fleck, resides in the Western Michigan Hall of Fame after passing for more than 11,000 yards for the Broncos in the late ‘90’s. After losing stud QB Zach Terrell to the NFL, Lester inherits Tom Flacco (brother of NFL Joe) as his quarterback. The biggest loss, though, is that of superstar WR Corey Davis, a 1st round pick in this year’s NFL Draft. It’s a good thing Lester has his footprint on this transitioning program.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos led the nation in fewest turnovers lost last season (8).


PLAY AGAINST: at Toledo (11/24)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 MWC Preview
July 24, 2017


2017 Mountain West Conference Football Betting Preview


We’re Back, Again


For the tenth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games when seven participants hit the alleys last season. The MWC has earned 84 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 46-38 (.548) all-time record in those contests.


More important, for the first time in six years the Mountain West finished the bowls with a winning campaign last season.


Newbies


The Mountain West has welcomed 29 new head coaches over the last 18 seasons, twelve of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year. Three new head coaches debut this season: Brent Brennan (San Jose State), Jay Norvell (Nevada), and oldie but goodie Jeff Tedford (Fresno State). The bad news is all three of the new coaches will face uphill battles with squads that all figure to battle to stay out of the cellar in their respective divisions.


Way Up There


The Mountain West Conference is appropriately named with all 6 teams in the MWC Mountain Division more than 2,000 feet above sea level.


Wyoming’s War Memorial stadium scales the highest at 7,215 feet, with Air Force’s Falcon Stadium also better than a mile high at 6,621 feet.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


MWC MOUNTAIN PREVIEW


AIR FORCE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 1/0, 80 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES


It’s a good thing the Air Force Academy is always heavy on upper classmen. That’s because this year’s squadron has plenty of holes to fill as AFA seniors accounted for the 2nd highest percentage of starts of all FBS teams last season (69.0%). The good news is former starting QB Nate Romine returns, along with his heir apparent Arion Worthman, who is undefeated (6-0) as a starter for the Falcons. Lost however are six of seven defensive linemen, four of five linebackers and six of seven defensive backs. Furthermore, the Flyboys will most likely need to win out at home as five of six road games are slated against bowl teams.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 2-12 ATS in games after facing Army and Navy since 2010.


PLAY AGAINST: at Colorado State (10/28)


BOISE STATE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 4/2, 38 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: 12 AND COUNTING


You have to go back to 1998 to find the last time a Boise State football team failed to win 8 games in a season. And were it not for the fact that the Broncos finished the 2016 season with the 2nd fewest amount of turnovers gained (9), they likely would have topped the 10 wins they recorded last season. In fact, the most consistent mid-major in the nation has knocked off five of their last six Power Five foes. We’re not certain what happened in their bowl loss to Baylor, but the last four times the Broncos lost a bowl game, they bounced back to go 51-3 combined the following season. Thought you’d like to know.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 61-2 SU in games against .500 or less foes with Bryan Harsin on the sidelines (as OC 2006-2010 and since 2014).


PLAY ON: vs. Air Force (11/18)


COLORADO STATE (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 8/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RAMMING IT UP


Starting QB Nick Stevens leads a stacked backfield speared by the three-headed attack of Dalyn Dawkins, Izzy Matthews and Marvin Kinsey, Jr., who combined for 2,199 rushing yards last season. (Note: the Rams were 6-0 SU in game in which they rushed for 200 yards last season; 0-6 when they did not). After being demoted, and then reclaiming his starting position October 22nd, Stevens posted the nation’s best pass efficiency from that point forward when the Rams finished as the No. 4 team in the nation in red zone offense in 2016. Defensively, nine starters return, most of who were thrown into the fire due to a lack of proficiency. Meanwhile, Mike Bobo is one of only two Group of Five coaches hired in 2015 to post winning records each of the last two years. Color them dangerous.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 0-20 SU all-time versus ranked opponents.

PLAY ON: at Wyoming (11/4)


NEW MEXICO (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 2/1, 41 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BORN TO RUN


The Lobos won their first NCAA rushing title last season (after finishing second in 1970 and 1971) when they tallied 4,550 yards, edging Army by 86 yards. The question is was New Mexico good last season, or were they good and lucky? Five of its wins were by a TD or less in 2016 (only Clemson owned more). With over 50% of the starts made for the Lobos last season coming by seniors, we’ll see what Bob Davie has left in his recruit war chest. We do know this: the Lobos committed just 14 giveaways last season. In four of Davie’s five seasons at the helm, the Lobos have ranked in the top five in fewest giveaways.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored by 2.8 PPG under Davie, after being outscored by 26 PPG in the 3 years prior to his arrival.


PLAY ON: vs. New Mexico State (9/9)


UTAH STATE (Offense - *7/2, Defense - 8/1, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SHOW ME YOUR SIGN


It’s not a good sign when your team wins 3 games in a season in which over 50% of the starts were made by seniors – especially when six players that earned various MWC honors are gone this year. Granted, four losses last season by a TD or less were discouraging but signs of progress are evident in 2017 with the return of starting QB Kent Myers (2,389 passing yards and 10 TDs), RB Tonny Lindsey, Jr. (763 rushing yards and 6 TDs), and WR Ron’quavion Tarver (46 receptions for 602 yards) from last season. Also good news is the fact that 20 players made their first start last season. Collectively, they can only get better.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies own a 19-13 SU record in conference games under Wells. They were 24-42 SU the previous nine seasons.


PLAY ON: at Air Force (11/25)


WYOMING (Offense - *6/4, Defense - 8/3, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: COWBOY UP


Meet the FBS team that started the most underclassmen in the nation in 2016 (56.2%). And for the first time in four seasons at Wyoming, head coach Craig Bohl will have a returning starter quarterback in JT Josh Allen – a mighty damn good one at that. Allen burst onto the college football scene in 2016, leading the MWC, and ranking 20th in the nation in passing touchdowns (28). Some thought he might enter the NFL Draft early this year but he didn’t. As a result, Allen should be one of the top returning QBs in the nation. Bohl’s force-feeding of youngsters two seasons ago paid major dividends last year. Could he hit the jackpot in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Last year’s win over Boise State was the first over a ranked opponent for the Cowboys since 2002.


PLAY ON: vs. New Mexico (10/28)


MWC WEST PREVIEW


FRESNO STATE (Offense - *10/5, Defense - 6/3, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RECYCLING RETREADS


What is the last thing a team that ranked dead last in in the nation in first down defense – and also ranked in the bottom 10 in the land in rush offense – would want to face during the first month of a new season with a new coach this year? If you said consecutive road trips to Alabama and to Washington, you’re spot on. The new coach is actually an old one recycled, former California boss Jeff Tedford. He was brought in after the Bulldogs fell from 11 wins to 11 losses in three years under Tim DeRuyter, who ironically moves to Cal as it new defensive coordinator. Remember this team suffered four losses by a touchdown or less last season. The only direction this program can go is up.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After a 19-4 start with the Bulldogs, former Fresno State coach Tim DeRuyter went 11-30 in his final 41 games.


PLAY ON: at Hawaii (11/11)


HAWAII (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 6/2, 54 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FASTEN YOU SEAT BELTS – AGAIN


If you thought the 10,000 miles Hawaii flew before playing its first home game last season was dizzying, wait until you get a load of this year’s passenger manifest. By the end of September 2017, the Warriors will have journeyed to Massachusetts, Los Angeles, and Wyoming. Troubling? No way. Not after 1st year coach and former Hawaii quarterback Nick Rolovich used last season's 10,000-mile journey to discover an exciting QB in Dru Brown and an explosive RB in Diocemy Saint Juste, pairing them to form one of the MWC’s more frightening backfields. With most of last year’s starting cast back, plus 9 of the top 11 receivers, another bowl looks likely.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hawaii is 1-7 SU in Eastern Time zones since 1959, with losses by a combined margin of 286-30.

PLAY AGAINST: at Massachusetts (8/26)


NEVADA (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 9/3, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MUMMIFIED


Though it seems like eons ago now, three stints of Chris Ault and his altered shotgun offense are a faded memory following four non-descript seasons under Brian Polian. Replacing Polian is offense-maker Jay Norvell, a wide receivers coach at Arizona State last season, and a former OC with Nebraska, Oklahoma, and UCLA. To help kick-start the offense, Norvell hired Matt Mumme (Hal’s son), a former HC at Division III LaGrange as his OC. With air raid in Mumme’s blood, expect the pig to fly in Reno in 2017. Norvell’s DC is Jeff Casteel who brings almost 25 years of coordinator experience, including stints at West Virginia and Arizona. The rebuild is in place.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolf Pack were the 4th best team in the nation in fewest turnovers lost last season (11).


PLAY AGAINST: at Fresno State (9/30)


SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *5/1, Defense - 6/1, 34 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CLOUDY SKIES IN SAN DIEGO


A monster in the Mountain West has emerged. Over the past two seasons Rocky Long’s Aztecs have won two MWC titles while outscoring conference foes by 24 PPG, while going 16-2 SU in conference games in the process. The problem now facing Long’s troops is that over 50% of the starts made for the Aztecs in 2016 were by seniors. Obviously, they will need to be replaced. The good news is super-pest South Alabama is no longer on the schedule. The Aztecs went 0-2 SUATS versus the Jaguars in 2015-16, and 22-4 against everyone else! Last year SDSU started the same OL in all 14 games, a group that combined for 114 starts. Now 130 of those starts are gone – along with record-setting RB Donnel Pumphrey.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After bowling twice in 22 years between 1987 and 2009, the Aztecs have bowled six straight years under Rocky Long.


PASS


SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - 7/5, Defense - 8/2, 35 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BAD NEWS… GOOD NEWS


First the bad news: The Spartans were the worst team in the land in sacks allowed (50) last year. They were also the 2nd worst team in the nation in 4th down conversion percentage defense. Throughout it all, after collaring Top 60 recruiting classes each of his last three years, promising young head coach Ron Caragher was canned. The good news is his replacement is Brent Brennan, a 44-year old former UCLA wide receiver, known for his infectious personality. He inherits major experience on the OL with six linemen owning 125 combined career starts. Even better news: Brennan also inherits a deeply experienced defense that could be the backbone of the team.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The SU winner in Spartans’ games is 33-4 the last three seasons, including 12-0 in 2016.


PASS


UNLV (Offense - *9/4 Defense - 2/2, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MAXIMUM VEGAS


Bit by the injury bug last year, HC Tony Sanchez’s troops fell short of .500 – but still improved their record, point production, and overall defense. The Rebels return two starting QBs and four WRs, plus a high upside of youthful experience is back as Sanchez’s recruiting skills are beginning to surface. For it to happen, though, veteran DC Kent Baer (45th year of coaching) needs his troops to show continued improvement. This is a program that's been to only four bowl games in four decades and, as a result, head coaches have struggled in Vegas (USC’s John Robinson was 28-42 here). Sanchez is determined to set a new norm. Don’t discount his chances as UNLV returns one of the Mountain West’s best backfields and top offensive lines this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rebels have enjoyed just one winning season over the last 16 years.


PLAY ON: at Idaho (9/9) - *KEY

 

[CNOTES]

2017 Pac-12 Preview
July 31, 2017


2017 Pacific-12 Conference Football Betting Preview


It’s Getting Warm Around Here


If it appears that things are warming up in the desert these days it’s because they are. Global warming aside, Arizona and Arizona State are just 20-19 and 21-17 respectively since 2014.


That puts head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Todd Graham squarely on the hot seat this season. Behind defenses that allowed an average 38 (Wildcats) and 40 (Sun Devils) points per game last season its no surprise new defensive coordinators were hired in the off season.


Quarterback Checklist


Like most football conferences, the Pac-12 is a quarterback driven league. And 2017 will be no different, with USC Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Washington’s Jake Browning and Washington State’s Luke Falk leading the charge.


Each will be in the Heisman Trophy talk in 2017. And rest assured, by the time the final dust settles backers of these teams will have air miles aplenty.


Bowl Shorts


For a Power 5 conference, the Pac-12 landed only six bowl berths in 2016. Not only did they manage a waffling 3-3 SU mark, they lost the money in all six contests when they went 0-6 ATS.


After a blasé 6-4 bowl effort in 2015, it’s time for the surfer dudes to stand and deliver in 2017.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


PAC-12 NORTH PREVIEW


CALIFORNIA (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 8/3, 56 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW LOOK BEARS


The bad news Bears fielded the 4th worst overall stop-unit in the nation last season, owning the worst rush defense AND worst 4th down conversion percentage defense as well. Hopefully, those days are now in the rear-view mirror. The dismissal of HC Sonny yikes (no D) and the hire of Justin Wilcox bring a new look to Berkeley. As a DC, Wilcox’s stuffing defenses at Boise State, Tennessee, USC, Washington and Wisconsin guarantees a defensive turnaround at Cal. And for good measure, he brings in hard-nosed former HC Tim DeRuyter as his new DC, and former Eastern Washington HC Beau Baldwin as his OC. The Bears look ready to strap on the ‘D’.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Dykes, the Bears were 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS versus Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, and USC, losing by over 20 PPG... and 1-11 SU in Games Six thru Eight.


PASS


OREGON (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 9/0, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TAG… YOU’RE IT


New HC Willie Taggart inherits a decidedly desirable situation, and not just because he’s taking over a top-level program. It’s the fact that Oregon hit a chuckhole in 2016 when its 4 wins (the fewest since 1983) snapped a 12-year win skein. Thus, a winning season of any sort will be looked upon as improvement. But more than that, the Ducks started more freshmen that any FBS team (29.1% of all starts). In addition, 46.7% of all starts were made by underclassmen (8th most in the land). That goes hand-in-hand with our take on young teams translating ambitious experience into success (see Washington in 2016). Fear these dangerous Ducks.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Ducks were held to under 300 yards of total offense for the first time in 89 games in a loss to USC last season.


PASS


OREGON STATE (Offense – *8/2, Defense – 7/3, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: REBUILDING THE DAM


After being beaten to a pulp in Gary Andersen’s first year with OSU in 2015 (they were outscored and outyarded by conference foes, -24.6 and -208 YPG ), things improved across the board in 2016 – to the point that they handily outperformed the oddsmaker, going 9-2 ATS. Hence, promise is the optimal word in Corvallis these days. 22-year old OT Gus Lavaka spent two years as an LDS missionary in Tonga and returned to land a spot on Campus Insiders’ 2016 Freshmen All-American First Team for the Beavers last season. He joins CB Xavier Crawford as another 2016 Freshmen All-American First Teamer, so the building blocks are in place.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers were ranked No. 127 (2nd worst) in 4th down conversion percentage in 2016.


PASS


STANFORD (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/2, 82 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SHAW SHANKED


Perpetuating their lofty standing as a premier team in the Pac-12, Stanford ranks at the top of its division and third in the conference in the number of 4-or 5-star (41) and ESPN 300 (32) recruits signed over the past five seasons. It’s a primary reason that, since he arrived at Stanford in 2011, head coach David Shaw has averaged 10.7 wins per season. However, the loss of two 1st-rounders in this year’s NFL Draft cannot be overstated. RB Christian McCaffrey’s 3,360 rushing yards against Power 5 foes was tops in the land (nearly 700 yards more than runner-up D’Onta Foreman of Texas). And DL Solomon Thomas was the 3rd overall pick in the draft. Be careful here.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cardinal’s offense slipped 12 points and 68 yards per game last season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Notre Dame (11/25)


WASHINGTON (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/2, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: YOUNG PUPS


Last year we proclaimed the fact that the 2015 Huskies were ”young as hell, and back for more in 2016.” That force-feeding paid off in spades when they earned a trip to the CFB Playoffs. And because only 17.5% of all starts last year were made by seniors (the 6th fewest in the nation), they are still hungry, led by QB Jake Browning and TB Myles Gaskin. Still, three members of UDub’s starting secondary were scooped up in the first 11 picks in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft. Remember, the Huskies led the nation in turnovers gained last season (33). What happens to the defending Pac-12 champs if they don’t this year?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Chris Petersen averages 10.82 wins per season, which ranks No. 3 among all current head coaches.

PLAY AGAINST: at Colorado (9/23)


WASHINGTON STATE (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 7/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TICK, TICK, TICK…


After seeing his best squad ever at WSU last season open up 0-2 and then stall down the stretch, one can only imagine the numbers on Mike Leach’s Fit Bit this offseason. We know this for sure: we’re betting QB Luke Falk will be in New York City for the Heisman Trophy presentations this year. The 6’4” SR started all 13 games in 2016 while completing 443-of-633 passes for 4,468 yards (third most in the nation) and 38 TDs. And those numbers were actually DOWN from two years ago when he completed 448-of-645 passes for 4,566 yards and 38 TDs. A wealth of receivers also return, making this a team no one will want to line up against in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as conference road dogs versus winning foes under head coach Mike Leach.


PLAY ON: vs. Boise State (9/9)


PAC-12 SOUTH PREVIEW:


ARIZONA (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 8/3, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHERE HAS ALL THE TALENT GONE?


It was a collapse of major proportions. Last year’s awful 3-9 season, after four consecutive bowl campaigns, dropped the Wildcats to 10-15 since winning the Pac-12 South Division in 2014. Last year’s 82-yard slippage on offense can be attributed to a depleted attack unit being forced to play three different quarterbacks, and a wide receiver at running back. Only in this case it was a lack of talent – not injuries – that handcuffed the team. “Part of the problem we had last year was mistakes in recruiting or bad luck in recruiting,” head coach Rich Rodriguez said. “It falls on me.” It's fair to say he won’t be long for Tucson with another 3-9 season. Safe to say Rich Rod will need stud RB Nick Wilson, who’s missed 14 games the past two seasons with injuries, to stand and deliver.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: For the third time in the last five years, Arizona has had zero players selected in the NFL Draft.


PLAY ON: vs. Utah (9/22)


ARIZONA STATE (Offense – *7/2, Defense – 7/3, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: IT’S GETTING HOT AROUND HERE

After a second straight losing campaign in 2016, head coach Todd Graham’s staff underwent more change for the second straight year, losing passing game coordinator Jay Norvell (new HC at Nevada). Also gone is OC Chip Lindsey, who accepted the same position at Auburn. Graham then added former Baylor DC Phil Bennett to the mix. But you know things are going bad when Youngstown State and West Georgia each had more players drafted (2) this year than you did (1). The good news is new OC Billy Napier, Alabama’s WR coach, will work with former Alabama QB Blake Barnett, who transferred out with automatic eligibility.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona State ranked dead last (No. 128) in passing yards allowed for the second consecutive season.


PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (11/11) - *KEY


COLORADO (Offense – 9/4, Defense – 3/1, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RALPHIE ON THE LOOSE


The Buffaloes improved from 3-33 in conference play the previous four seasons to 8-1 in 2016. And the expectation is that Colorado will likely remain a Top 25-caliber team for the foreseeable future. The Pac-12’s best scoring defense will need to overhaul its unit, though, with 8 starters gone. On the flip side, the Buffaloes have one of the best groups of receivers in the conference, and also return 2nd-team All-Pac-12 RB Phillip Lindsay. They should be in good shape with Steven Montez replacing Sefo Liufau at QB, and four starters back on the OL, including OT Tim Lynott, a Freshmen All-American First Teamer who started every game last year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buffaloes have forced a turnover in each of their last 25 home games – the longest skein in the nation.


PASS


UCLA (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 6/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A THOUSAND MILES FROM NOWHERE


Where does a team go that loses its franchise quarterback at the midway point of the season behind an offense that ranked No. 127 (2nd worst in the land) in rushing offense? Not far, or as Dwight Yoakam might say, “A thousand miles from nowhere.” Thus, this year’s team will be all about having the “Chosen Rosen” back behind center. The ‘mission team’ Bruins will also be looking to improve on last year’s 1-5 mark in true road games (as opposed to going 17-6 the prior four seasons). UCLA’s defense actually improved in 2016 when it held six straight opponents to under 400 yards of total offense in a season for the first time since 2010.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Josh Rosen was sacked 13 times in 6 games last season, as opposed to 15 times in 13 games in 2015.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (9/3)


USC (Offense – *6/2, Defense – 7/1, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WELL-EQUIPPED TROJANS


After starting the season 1-2 for the first time since 2001, USC handed the keys over to phenom QB Sam Darnold, who lost his first start and then led the Trojans to nine straight wins – winning the stats in all ten games. Darnold finished with the 2nd-most passing yards (3,086) of all freshmen in 2016, and he projects as the No. 1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft (should he decide to enter). Hence, the 2017 Trojans are well equipped, returning 81 squad men from last year’s Rose Bowl champion team. A consensus national Top 5 recruiting class of 23 newcomers will join them. That likely tells you all you need to know. What is concerning is the fact that the Trojans averaged 68,459 fans in home attendance in 2016. They drew 91,480 fans a game under Pete Carroll.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USC beat both teams that played in the Pac-12 Championship Game last season.


PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Notre Dame (10/21)


UTAH (Offense – *6/1, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RANK ‘EM UP


Former Washington Huskies and JCU transfer QB Troy Williams stepped in and filled Travis Wilson’s shoes with aplomb last season when he threw for 2,757 yards and 15 TDs. The Utes tied with BYU for the 2nd best team in the land in turnovers gained (31), and was also the No. 1 ranked team in net punting in 2016. However, Kyle Whittingham’s team took a big hit in the NFL Draft when eight players were selected this year. Fortunately, there are no back-to-back road games this season for the first time since 2003, when they went 10-2. The bad news, though, is they will face the top four teams from the North division in 2017. FYI: Utah has appeared in every College Football Playoff ranking since its inception in 2014.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Utes head coach Whittingham owns the best bowl winning percentage (.910) of any coach in NCAA history.


PLAY AGAINST: at USC (10/14)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 SEC Preview
August 8, 2017

2017 SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW


Rolling With The Tide


Alabama finished one second shy of winning its fifth national championship in eight years in a heart-breaking loss to Clemson in the College Football Playoff title game last season.


The SEC has won the National Championship eight times in the last 11 years, while appearing in the title game 10 times - with the Crimson Tide claiming four crowns.

A Long Time Between Drinks Of Water


Since the Tim Tebow-led Florida Gators defeated Alabama in 2008 in the SEC title game en route to winning the national championship, teams from the West division have reeled off 8 straight victories against East division foes in SEC titles games, including Alabama’s 54-16 victory over Florida in last season.

Take Your Choice

In Las Vegas, Alabama leads the 2017 season win totals brigade at 11, followed by Ohio State at 10.5.


According to odds to win the SEC at 5Dimes.com, the 2017 SEC East pecking order finds: Alabama -160, LSU +675, Auburn +700, Texas A&M +5000, Arkansas +8000, Mississippi State +12000.


In the SEC East its Georgia +1000, Florida +1100, Tennessee +2200, Kentucky +12000, South Carolina +12000, Missouri +23000 and Vanderbilt +23000.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


SEC EAST PREVIEW


FLORIDA (Offense – 9/4, Defense – 6/3, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BEWARE OF THE GATORS


Here’s a sobering thought: since Tim Tebow left in 2009, the Gators have had 10 different starting quarterbacks, none of whom passed for 2,500 yards or 12 TDs in a single season. Feleipe Franks appears to be the next in line this season. A concern is eight Florida players were selected in this year’s NFL Draft, including three members of a secondary that were selected in the 2nd round (UF owned the No. 1 passing efficiency defense in 2016). Nonetheless, Florida qualifies as a ‘play on’ squad in 2017 that improved its stats on both sides of the ball last year, yet slipped SU and ATS. We’re expecting big things from the Gators.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Only 15.4 % of starts made by the Gators last year were by seniors – the 3rd fewest in the nation.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Georgia (10/28)


GEORGIA (Offense – *8/2, Defense – 10/2, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK


In 2015 a total of 22 true freshmen, which led the nation, played for the Bulldogs. Then last year the Bulldogs ended the season by playing a total of 20 freshmen. Thus, it’s no surprise to learn that only 19.3% of all starts for Georgia in 2016 were made by seniors (the 9th fewest in the nation). Most important, though, Georgia’s top three rushers are back, including Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. The All-Star seniors – the best 1-2 combo in college football – have rushed for 5,835 yards and 48 TDs in their careers. But the big news is the return of 10 starters on defense. Meanwhile, 2nd-year babysitter Kirby Smart is lovin’ it.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: West Georgia had more players drafted (2) this year by the NFL than did Georgia (1).


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Missouri (10/14) -*KEY


KENTUCKY (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 9/3, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TIME TO GO TO WORK, KIDS


After just completing a new mind-boggling 100,000 square foot, $45 million training facility in 2016 – a year after a $120 million “re-imagining” of Commonwealth Stadium in 2015 – it’s time for the Wildcats to git 'er done. It starts with a team that features the nation’s 7th largest amount of returning production, keyed by 17 returning starters. That’s because just 16.2 % of starts by the 'Cats last year were made by seniors, the 4th fewest in the nation. Anchoring this year’s attack, the OL returns 47 starts from 2016, a line that paved the way for the 2nd-most rushing yards in school history (3,044) and a school-record 30 TDs. Okay, now get to work.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Kentucky was the No. 3 team in the nation in 4th down conversion percentage last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (10/28)


MISSOURI (Offense – *10/5, Defense – 6/2, 42 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SHOW ME WHAT YOU GOT


Things went from bad to worse for the Tigers in 2016. After winning 23 games and going 14-4 in SEC play in 2013-14, Mizzou has won just 9 games the past two seasons while going 3-13 in conference contests. The good news, though, is a marshmallow offense came alive in 2016 when the Tigers improved 17 points and 219 yards per game. However, the bad news is the defense fell apart at the seams under 1st year head coach Barry Odom when it regressed 15 points and 177 yards. OC Josh Heupel did his job, and welcomes 10 starters back in 2017. In order to move the program back in the right direction, defensive improvement is a must. A bigger problem is slipping attendance, as the Tigers 52,236 average attendance was the biggest dip off all FBS schools, down 20% from 71,165 the previous season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 26-5 SU and 20-8 ATS the last four years in games where they outgain their opponent.


PLAY ON: vs. Tennessee (11/11) - *KEY as a dog


SOUTH CAROLINA (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 6/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: COCKED AND LOADED


When SC faced USF in the Birmingham Bowl last season, 76 of the 113-man bowl roster (67.3%) were comprised of either freshmen (52) or sophomores (24) – compared to just 18 juniors and 19 seniors. By season’s end, 13 true freshmen saw game action in 2016, matching Maryland, Ole Miss and Texas for the most true freshmen starters in the country. In fact, the Gamecocks were the only squad in the nation to have freshmen lead the team in rushing and passing yards. Second-year head coach Will Muschamp is thrilled to welcome back the youngsters, but the Gamecocks will face a brutal schedule with 11 bowl teams from 2016. Yuk.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Gamecocks were 0-7 SU against ranked opponents until they defeated Tennessee last season.


PLAY AGAINST: at Missouri (9/9)


TENNESSEE (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 8/1, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ROCKY TIMES ON ROCKY TOP

The Vols’ resurgence all started in 2014 after Tennessee played 23 true freshmen – the most in the nation – the year prior, and then followed it up with 240 total returning starts in 2015. It resulted in a pair of 9-win seasons the past two years. UT has some mighty big shoes to fill in 2017, though. Granted, they're still a young team that is rapidly maturing. But the loss of QB Joshua Dobbs (23-12 as a starter, the Vols' career leader in rushing yards and TDs) and RB Alvin Kamara (1,188 all-purpose yards and 13 TDs in 2016) leaves crater-size holes to fill at the two most important skill positions. Things could get a bit rocky in 2017.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vols ranked No. 126 (3rd worst) in 2016 in 4th down conversion percentage.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Georgia (9/30)


VANDERBILT (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 7/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MR MOJO RISIN’


We really liked the makeup of last year’s Vanderbilt squad as a preponderance of youth in 2015 (123 overall starts by underclassmen) led to a vastly experienced band of Commies in 2016. In fact, only 20% of the starts made last season were by seniors, the 10th fewest in the nation. And it paid off in spades as Vandy finished 2016 as the top team in the land in red zone defense – as well as the No. 5 unit in red zone offense. Together that’s a pretty powerful tandem. It resulted in the 'Dores landing their 4th bowl bid in the last six years. Safe to say, head coach Derek Mason has this team on the rise.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS in Game Six of the season over the last 16 years.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Georgia (10/7) - *KEY


SEC WEST PREVIEW


ALABAMA (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/1, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OUTWORK YESTERDAY


For the second straight season the powerhouse Tide return 6 starters on each side of the ball. The difference this year, though, is QB Jalen Hurts is now a sophomore and explosive WR Calvin Ridley is now a junior. After 17 years of coaching experience in the NFL, new co-OC Brain Dabol was lured ($1.2M) to Tuscaloosa. Along with DC Jeremy Pruitt’s $1.3M annual salary, the Tide’s 10 full-time assistant coaches will earn a combined $6.5M… or $5M collectively less than Nick Saban’s $11.5M haul. Sheesh. Meanwhile, like last year’s national champion, Clemson, the Tide will face no back-to-back away games, playing only 4 true road games the entire season. FYI: The Tide has won 17 consecutive SEC games by an average of 21 points.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Nick Saban is an incredible 119-19 SU at Alabama, including 40-1 versus .500 or less opponents.


PASS


ARKANSAS (Offense – *7/4, Defense – 5/0, 54 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NOT SO HIGH ON THE HOG


Devastating news hit the Razorback program this offseason when star RB Rawleigh Williams III announced his retirement after suffering a second major neck injury in as many years. “He might be the most complete running back I’ve ever signed," said head coach Bret Bielema. "He’s serious.” The good news is Austin Allen is one of the top three returning quarterbacks in the SEC. The problem is his top two targets have departed. That and a gaping hole on the DL where none of the starters are anywhere to be found. After blowing some really big halftime leads last season, Bielema shook up his defensive coaching staff to make amends for a plethora of failures.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Hogs have played UNDER their season win total in three of four seasons under Bret Bielema.


PLAY ON: vs. Missouri (11/25)


AUBURN (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 8/2, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HURRY, CLOSE THE DOOR


There's an army of supporters who feel that Auburn is rapidly closing the door on Alabama. With former 5-star Baylor recruit QB Jarrett Stidham taking over the controls for Gus Malzahn’s offense this season, the door is shutting fast. Consider: Auburn QBs had 12 TD passes in 2016. Stidham had 12 TD passes as a backup with Baylor in 2015. Our 4 Year Statistical Review above confirms the suspicion as it notes the Tigers improved their numbers on both sides of the ball last year (+13 net PPG, +71 net OYPG, and +43 net DYPG). RB Kamryn Pettway averaged 122 RYPG in 2016, the highest mark among all returning FBS running backs. Here come the Tigers.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 30-1 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007. The loss occurred last year against Clemson.


PLAY ON: at Clemson (9/9)


LSU (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 5/2, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MILES TO GO


Here’s a bar bet you’ll win every time this year – the Tigers were ranked dead last in 4th down conversion percentage in 2016. It’s numbers like those that ran Les Miles out of town. What backfired last season was a master plan that called for an experienced squad of underclassmen who made 41.9% of all starts last season. Amid rumors of insubordination, they opened the 2016 campaign at 2-2 last year, and Miles was shown the door. Fixer Ed Orgeron steps in as the full-time coach but has a long way to go to mirror Miles’ numbers. There will come a time when he’ll need to win games against quality conference teams… or else.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ed Orgeron is 2-18 SU as a head coach against winning SEC foes in his career.


PLAY ON: at Florida (10/7) - *KEY as a dog


MISSISSIPPI (Offense – *5/4, Defense – 6/1, 60 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: REBEL WITH A CAUSE


The Rebels have somehow managed to crack the 60 returning lettermen barrier once again. In fact, going back from 2017 to Hugh Freeze’s first year with the program in 2012, the Rebels returning lettermen have numbered 60, 61, 58, 60, 58, and 61. What it means is his recruiting skills have been exceptional, thus the reason his teams are 49-27 SU and 44-25-1 ATS throughout his FBS career. And he did it in the ultra-competitive grounds of the SEC. Freeze is gone but the young Rebels started the 5th most freshmen in FBS last season (20.1%), and will be a qualified ‘Mission Team’ in 2017, suffering their first losing season last year under Freeze.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freeze was 15-1 SU and 14-2 ATS as a favorite vs. non-conference opponents.


PLAY ON: at California (9/16)


MISSISSIPPI STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 7/0, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: DAK WHO?


After losing a quarterback that put up some of the most impressive numbers in SEC history, Mississippi State looked to be in a pinch last season. That was until SO QB Nick Fitzgerald surfaced – at just the right time. All Fitzgerald did in his first year as a starter was shatter nine school records. He also broke the SEC single-season record for 100-yard rushing games by a QB (8) and average yards per rush by a QB (7.1). Fitzgerald is joined in the backfield by late-bloomer RB Aeris Williams, who changed the complexion of MSU’s rushing attack late last year. The “A-Train” averaged 102.8 YPG in the last five contests of 2016. All aboard!


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Dan Mullen, the Bulldogs are 27-12 SU in seasons after losing 6 or more games the previous year.


PASS


TEXAS A&M (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE SUM OF THE MATTER


On the heels of its third consecutive 8-5 season, it would appear things are hunky-dory in College Station. We beg to disagree. According to our database, the Aggies have suffered four consecutive ATS losing seasons, going 16-32 ATS. What it means is that Kevin Sumlin’s crew has underachieved, as the Las Vegas oddsmakers had them pegged for better results. Along the way A&M is 15-0 SU during the first three games of the season the last three years, but only 9-15 SU and 3-20 ATS out. The good news is RB Trayveon Williams was a 2016 Freshmen All-American First Team selection when he rushed for 1,024 yards on only 147 carries (7.0 YPR) last season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin is 1-13 ATS in games following a loss since 2013.


PLAY ON: vs. Mississippi State (10/28)

 

[CNOTES]

2017 Sun Belt Preview
August 14, 2017

2017 Sun Belt Conference Football Betting Preview


On the surface the Sun Belt appears to be a three-horse race in 2017, according to 5Dimes.eu. Here are their odds to win the conference title this season:


Appalachian State +130
Arkansas State +325
Troy +340
Georgia Southern +1400
UL Lafayette +1400
Idaho +1700
New Mexico State +2000
South Alabama +2000
Georgia State +4500
UL Monroe +4500
Coastal Carolina +11500
Texas State +17500


We’re Getting There


The Sun Belt Conference will hold its first ever football championship game beginning in 2018.


“This championship will be a first-class experience – and we look forward to it being a launching-pad for a team to reach the College Football Playoff’s ‘New Year’s Six’ bowl games,” said Commissioner Karl Benson.


Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

APPALACHIAN STATE (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 7/3, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ONE DAMN GOOD APP


After an injury-marred 4-8 mark in 2013, and then going 1-5 to start the following season, ASU head coach Scott Satterfield was simmering on the hot seat. But suddenly, when it mattered the most, his Mountaineers went on a mission, winning 27 of their next 32 games while going 20-2 SU against fellow Group of 5 opponents. And just like that, they were back. Now with only ONE losing season under their belt since 1993 – the aforementioned 2013 campaign – and falling in overtime at Tennessee last season, App State is primed to win its first game against a Power 5 opponent (read: Wake Forest) behind star QB Taylor Lamb (27-9 as a starter – second to Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield in total wins) and RB Jalin Moore. Remember, the Mountaineers were ranked No. 2 in the nation in 4th down percentage defense last season. Be there.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers have won three FCS national championships since 2005.


PLAY ON: vs. Wake Forest (9/23)


ARKANSAS STATE (Offense - *5/0, Defense - 4/1, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HAVE GUN, WILL TRAVEL


To no one’s surprise, an 8-win effort in 2016 (after a 0-4 start) was in keeping with the Red Wolves’ 44 victories over the previous five seasons. What is surprising is the fact they managed to scale such heights behind four different head coaches. The good news is Blake Anderson has been at the helm with each of the last three ASU teams which, if you read in between the lines, like his predecessors he could be flying the coop with another bowl effort this campaign. According to Bill Connelly of SBNation.com, the Wolves have won or shared five of the last six Sun Belt titles, and are 20-4 in conference play under Anderson. Having arguably the best quarterback in the league in Justice Hansen, along with talented RBs and WRs, makes the Red Wolves a contender for conference honors in 2017. They were also the top team in the land in team tackles for a loss last season. Very impressive, to say the least.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Red Wolves are 38-9 SU and 33-14 ATS from Game Six out the last six years.


PLAY ON: vs. UL-Lafayette (10/19) *KEY


COASTAL CAROLINA (Offense - *3/1, Defense - 6/3, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THE MOST INTERESTING COACH IN THE WORLD


Meet wildly successful head coach Joe Moglia and the Chanticleers. Moglia has gone 51-15 in five years at Coastal Carolina with four trips to the FCS playoffs, including 10-2 last year, with both losses by one-point each despite a cavalcade of quarterback injuries (5). A Vince Lombardi Hall of Fame award winner, he also won the 2015 Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year honor. The much-accomplished Moglia has gone from the Ivy League (DC at Dartmouth) to CEO and Chairman of the Board of Ameritrade, to an unpaid assistant at Nebraska, to head coach of the Chanticleers. He also brings an FCS all-star coaching staff with him. Granted, they were hit hard by injuries last season and graduation losses this season, but Syracuse transfer QB Austin Wilson, and Boston College RB Marcus Outlow will help spur the attack. Yes, you can say they are ready for the next level.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chanticleers offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under Moglia.

PLAY ON: vs. Massachusetts (9/2)


GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Offense - 5/4, Defense - 5/2, 23 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: POWERING DOWN


New head coach Tyson Summers knew that replacing Willie Fritz was not going to be an easy task. Little did he realize that following a 3-0 start, his Bald Eagles would be running on bald tires the rest of the way. A 2-7 blowout finish to the season would leave the Georgia Power Company on a season-ending energy outage. The fact of the matter is Summers is a non-option guy coaching an option-first offense and the regression was swift. Sensing a need to change gears immediately, Summers canned his co-offensive coordinators and brought in Paul Johnson disciple Bryan Cook to run the show. He’ll need all the drive he can get.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Before last season’s 3-2 effort, the Eagles had gone 29-4 SU at home the previous five years.


PASS


GEORGIA STATE (Offense - 9/4, Defense - 7/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: STAGE TWO


Behind former South Carolina offensive line coach – and interim head coach – Shawn Elliott, the Panthers move into a (sort of) new stadium in their next FBS phase. Elliott – the only new face among Sun Belt head coaches in 2017 - replaces Trent Miles who was vanquished after a 10-39 mark in four years with GSU. The Panthers will call revamped Turner Field (former home of the Atlanta Braves) home, and with it they welcome a cast of experienced players led by QB Conner Manning, a former Utah transfer. Also back is star WR Penny Hart who missed most of last season with a foot injury. Because it doesn’t take much to make yourself a bowl-caliber team in the Sun Belt, Elliott’s first full year at the helm should prove successful.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Despite going 1-3 SU, the Panthers won the stats in each of their final four games last season.


PLAY ON: at UL-Monroe (10/14)


IDAHO (Offense - *9/3, Defense - 6/1, 31 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: METAMORPHOSIS BOWL


With a tear in its eye, Idaho is FCS bound next season. After twenty-one seasons at the FBS level, the Vandals will take their 76-166 (a .301 win percentage) record to a lower echelon next year. During 18 years playing on the FCS stage, Idaho went 134-79 (a .629 win percentage), including 15 winning seasons and 11 postseason appearances. So while the move will likely generate new excitement in Moscow, the fact of the matter is they will be hell-bent to build on last season’s 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS finish. Behind a Paul Petrino offense that has improved it’s scoring each and every year on his watch, don’t count them out for one last bowl.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After losing 30 of its previous 32 away games, Idaho went 5-3 away last season, including a 61-50 bowl win.


PLAY AGAINST: at South Alabama (9/23)


NEW MEXICO STATE (Offense - 8/3, Defense - 9/3, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SOME THINGS NEVER SEEM TO CHANGE


In four years under current head coach Doug Martin, the Aggies have averaged 2.5 wins per season. From 2005-2012, NMSU averaged 2.6 wins per season. Like a goldfish swimming in circles, some things remain constant. And because his contract expires at the end of this year, Martin resorted to signing an abundance of JUCOs, including 13 of the team’s 25 new signees this season according to SBNation.com. After largely ignoring the JUCO route, it’s apparent Martin is in all-out mode to save his rear end. With a ton of experience returning on both sides of the ball, including star RB Larry Rose III, we say if not this year… then when?


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies have allowed 500 or more yards 26 times in 48 games under Martin, including ten 600+ yards games.


PLAY ON: at Ga Southern (10/14)


SOUTH ALABAMA (Offense - *5/3, Defense - 6/3, 41 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LOOK WHO’S KNOCKING AT THE DOOR


Respectability. With three 6-win FBS seasons since jumping in with the sharks in 2012 – none fewer than five – they’ve also won three games as underdogs of more than 17 points. The problem is they have also laid some golden goose-size eggs, too. More importantly, while knocking on the door, they’ve yet to taste a winning season at this level. They did, however, knock off Mississippi State and San Diego State last year to earn a coveted bowl berth. After closing out the 2016 season with stat-wins in each of their final five games, USA opens the 2017 campaign against a murderer’s row schedule in September with three games against top-tier FBS foes that have collectively won 13 of their last 17 bowl games this decade.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars are 0-4 SUATS following a SU underdog win the past two seasons by an average loss margin of 23.3 PPG.


PLAY ON: vs. UL-Monroe (10/21)


TEXAS STATE (Offense - 8/3, Defense - 7/3, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WITHERING HEIGHTS


Simply put, Year One under the Everett Withers coaching regime last season was not up to scratch, as the Bobcats owned the puniest rush offense in the nation. They were also the worst team in red zone defense in 2016. It was all largely due to the fact that Texas State freshmen were involved in 30% of all starts made by the Bobcats in 2016 – the most in the land. Withers is hoping Mississippi State transfer QB Damian Williams can come in and lead a suddenly experienced squad to a higher level of performance (read: more wins). Coupled with the best recruiting class in the Sun Belt this offseason, a reversal of fortune should be in order sooner rather than later.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bobcats are 2-20 In The Stats versus FBS foes the last two seasons.


PASS


TROY (Offense - *10/2, Defense - 6/2, 54 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ALABAMA SHAKES


Get ready, Alabama. The Trojans are one of three FBS schools in the state – and they might not be the weakest. We realize it’s a daunting statement, what with the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Auburn Tigers each residing in the same territory, but Troy will field its best team this century in 2017. Led this season by 4th year starting quarterback Brandon Silvers, the Trojans won 10 games last year behind a bevy of sophomores and juniors – who are now juniors and seniors. In addition, every rushing and pass-receiving yard returns. Stern September road trips to Boise State and LSU should shape them into a powerhouse in the Sun Belt this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Trojans are 9-0 ATS in regular season games following a SU favorite loss.


PLAY AGAINST: at New Mexico State (9/16)


UL-LAFAYETTE (Offense - 6/4, Defense - 7/3, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: RAGIN’ MAD


There is an unraveling situation going on in Lafayette. In the last two years, ULL barely won more games (10) than it averaged under head coach Mark Hudspeth in the four years previous. It’s one of the reasons ULL has played UNDER its season win total each of the last four years. And it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why. A quick scan of their stat-logs atop this page tells it all. The culprit is an offense that has regressed each and every year since 2012. Through it all, ULL has managed to hit the alleys in five of six seasons under Hudspeth. An ultra tough road slate puts that streak in jeopardy this season. That and the loss of QB Anthony Jennings and star RB Elijah McGuire to eligibility.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hudspeth is 13-3 ATS as a dog vs. winning opponents, including 8-0 SUATS as a single-digit underdog.


PASS


UL-MONROE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 8/3, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: VIA VIATOR


It’s a good thing 2nd year head coach Matt Viator is on the scene. When your rush defense ranks No. 125, there is generally trouble looming. A 10-year head coach at McNeese Sate where he led the Geaux Pokes to the FCS playoffs five times, Viator rolled up his sleeves and went to work hitting the recruiting trail hard this offseason. Word is he might have landed the school’s best class ever. Unfortunately, it may take a year or two for the results to show, as the Warhawks will face no less than 10 bowl teams from last season. The good news is ULM beefed up its offense 62 YPG in 2016. Now it’s the defense’s turn.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Warhawks have been shut out in at least one game in 7 of the last 8 seasons – all versus Power Five conferences.


PASS

 

[CNOTES]

GOY Best Bets Update
August 16, 2017


We’ve hit on Games of the Year throughout the summer, whether it was ones released at the South Point, The Golden Nugget or the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas or various other offshore shops. One of those books, 5Dimes.eu, has recently released additional GOY that I haven’t seen posted at any other books.


Let’s hit on a bunch of those, including a pair of Friday night games in Week 2. South Alabama will host a Power Five team for only the third time in school history when Oklahoma State comes to Mobile on Sept. 8. 5Dimes has installed the Cowboys as 27-point road favorites.


USA lost at home to N.C. State by a 63-13 count two years ago and dropped a 35-3 decision to Dak Prescott and Mississippi State in 2014. However, the Jaguars won outright at Mississippi State in last year’s opener and also blew out then-unbeaten and 19th-ranked San Diego State 42-24 as 19-point home underdogs in ’16.


OSU will bring an explosive passing game to Ladd-Peebles Stadium featuring QB Mason Rudolph and WRs James Washington and Jalen McCleskey. This trio won’t have to face South Alabama’s premier cover corner Jalen Thompson, who has been ruled academically ineligible for the 2017 campaign. Thompson finished ’16 with 31 tackles, a team-high four interceptions, six passes broken up, one-half sack and 1.5 tackles for loss.


The other game that night is Ohio at Purdue. The Boilermakers are one-point home ‘chalk’ at 5Dimes. They’ll open the Jeff Brohm Era the previous week in Indianapolis where his alma mater (Louisville) will serve as Purdue’s opponent. Ohio opens at home against Hampton.


Frank Solich’s team finished 8-6 straight up and 7-7 against the spread last season. Ohio returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The Bobcats have covered in their last three games on the road against Power Five schools. They took the cash in a 2015 loss at Minnesota (27-24) as 10-point underdogs, and then won outright at Kansas (37-21) last year and covered easily in a 28-19 loss at Tennessee. Solich’s club is 5-1 ATS in six games as a road ‘dog over the last two seasons.


Other Week 2 numbers include Northwestern -2 at Duke, Louisville -6 at North Carolina, Michigan -28 vs. Cincinnati, Boston College pick ‘em vs. Wake Forest, Alabama -42.5 vs. Fresno State, Virginia pick ‘em vs. Indiana, Missouri -1 vs. South Carolina, FSU -41.5 vs. ULM and Mississippi State -4.5 at La. Tech.


When Mississippi State last visited Ruston in the final season of Sylvester Croom’s tenure (’08), it lost outright by a 22-14 score. Northwestern won 19-10 at Duke two seasons ago and prevailed 24-13 in Evanston last year. We should note that Alabama has limped to a 3-13 spread record in its last 16 spots as a favorite of 35 points or more.


Since UCLA’s Week 3 game at Memphis was slotted for a noon Eastern kick several weeks ago, I’ve been talking on radio shows and my Games Galore podcast about how advantageous this game is for the Tigers from a situational standpoint. Obviously, flying East for the Bruins won’t be easy and the early kick will have their body clocks all messed up. In addition, the heat at the Liberty Bowl in mid-September during an early-afternoon game will be brutal compared to the more moderate temperatures UCLA players are accustomed to in Southern California.


I’ve been saying I like Memphis to win this game for weeks and will like the ‘over’ if the total is 75 points or fewer. 5Dimes has the Bruins favored by 2.5 points, so sign me up for the Tigers, who will have a dynamic offense led by QB Riley Ferguson and WR Anthony Miller.


One week after venturing to Mobile, Oklahoma State is on the road again to take on Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. 5Dimes has the Cowboys favored by six points. We should note that the star of Pitt’s defense, junior safety Jordan Whitehead, won’t be in uniform due to a three-game suspension that will end after this game. Remember, the Pokies won a 45-38 decision over the Panthers in Stillwater last September.


Whitehead, who Phil Steele has listed as the third-best strong safety that’s draft eligible for the NFL in 2018, recorded 65 tackles and one interception in nine games last season. Also, Pitt has dismissed senior starting DE Rori Blair from the program. Blair had 22 tackles, 3.5 sacks and five QB hurries in ’16. Therefore, Oklahoma State’s Rudolph will have some good fortune in these back-to-back road contests due to the absences of USA’s Thompson and Pitt’s Whitehead in the secondary. (And hey, we liked OSU to go ‘over’ 9 wins, win the Big 12 and get to the College Football Playoff before learning about Thompson, Whitehead and Blair.)


Other Week 3 lines are Notre Dame -7 at Boston College, South Carolina -2.5 vs. Kentucky, Missouri -11.5 vs. Purdue, Baylor -3 at Duke, Virginia Tech -21.5 at East Carolina, Washington State -11 vs. Oregon State, Alabama -28.5 vs. Colorado State, Kansas State -6 at Vanderbilt, Ohio State -30 vs. Army, Ole Miss -3.5 at California, Georgia Tech -6.5 at UCF and Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Arizona State.


If there’s one game that stands out to me among those in the above paragraph, I’m all about South Carolina -2.5 vs. UK at Williams-Brice Stadium. I’ll also mention that I would lean to Vandy as a home ‘dog vs. K-State. The Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight such spots.


On a Friday game (9/22) in Week 4, Virginia is listed as a nine-point ‘dog at 5Dimes for its trip to the smurf turf to take on Boise State. UVA not only has to fly West, but it must do so on a short week. This obviously gives BSU a major advantage.


(Quick Note: These “new” games have double juice both ways (-120 to bet either side). On the flip side, the games that have had numbers on them (like Texas A&M vs Arkansas in Week 4 at Jerry World) have -110 odds either way.)


Other Week 4 lines include Clemson -25.5 vs. BC, UNC -8 vs. Duke, West Virginia -13 at Kansas, Ohio State -36 vs. UNLV, Maryland -4.5 vs. UCF, Miami -15 vs. Toledo, FSU -19.5 vs. N.C. State, Georgia Tech -2 vs. Pitt, Oregon -3 at Arizona State, Florida -5.5 at Kentucky, Alabama -23 at Vandy, Washington -9 at Colorado, South Carolina -11 vs. La. Tech, LSU -20.5 vs. Syracuse, Georgia -10.5 vs. Mississippi State, Auburn -13 at Missouri, Michigan -22 at Purdue and Appalachian State -3 vs. Wake Forest.


Keep an eye on Toledo in its trip to South Fla. If the Rockets have their druthers, they certainly want this game to be played at night to alleviate some of the intense heat in Miami. Toledo catches the Hurricanes one week after they play a rivalry game at FSU and before they go on the road to play Duke in a nationally-televised Friday night game. The Rockets have Logan Woodside, who completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 4,129 passing yards with a 45/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. Since 2011, Toledo is 14-5 ATS as a road ‘dog.


Florida has won 30 in a row over Kentucky, which is college football’s longest current winning streak in a head-to-head rivalry. Colorado will be looking to avenge the 41-10 beatdown it took from Washington in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game. If I had to throw out a few leans in these Week 4 tilts, I’d look at Missouri as a double-digit home ‘dog to vs. AU and N.C. State (my ACC sleeper) catching the big number in Tallahassee. I want to add Appalachian State as well, but I want to see how it fares in its opener between the hedges before showing too much confidence in the Mountaineers (although they’re my pick to win the Sun Belt ahead of Troy).


Moving on to Week 5, Texas is a nine-point ‘chalk’ at Iowa State on Thursday night. There are four games on Friday, including three “new lines:” Miami -11 at Duke, BYU -10.5 at Utah State and Nebraska -10.5 at Illinois. The fourth Friday game is Washington State +10 vs. Southern Cal, and I like the Cougars. They’ll be playing their fifth consecutive home game in Pullman, while the Trojans will be on a short week and on the road again after facing Cal in Berkeley the previous Saturday.


Other Week 5 lines are N.C. State -10 vs. the ‘Cuse, FSU -19.5 at Wake Forest, Oklahoma State -10 at Texas Tech, PSU -21 vs. IU, Michigan State pick ‘em vs. Iowa, Minnesota -10.5 vs. Maryland, Wisconsin -13.5 vs. Northwestern, Washington -14 at Oregon State, Auburn -14 vs. Mississippi State, Alabama -25 vs. Ole Miss, Texas A&M -6.5 vs. South Carolina, LSU -23 vs. Troy, Florida -14 vs. Vandy and Notre Dame -19.5 vs. Miami (OH.).


I like Miami (OH.) catching the big number in South Bend. The RedHawks started ’16 by losing their first six games (three one-possession L’s) mainly because QB Gus Ragland wasn’t fully healthy yet. Ragland returned to the starting lineup and promptly led his team on a six-game winning streak to earn a postseason bid.


In the St. Petersburg Bowl, Miami (OH.) had a potential game-winning field goal blocked on the final play of a 17-16 loss to Mississippi State. Nevertheless, Ragland finished the year with 17 TD passes compared to only one interception. He has a 20/1 career TD-INT ratio and gets back both of his top WRs and the three leading rushers. The RedHawks return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. They also have their five leading tacklers back. Don’t be shocked if Ragland has Miami (OH.) in this game against the Fighting Irish for four quarters.


Another team to keep an eye on in a non-conference clash is Troy for its trip to Baton Rouge. LSU will have a huge revenge game on deck at Florida, meaning it will fall into a vintage look-ahead scenario. The Trojans finished last season 10-3, losing by only six on the road in the other Death Valley against the eventual national champs (Clemson obviously).


Neal Brown's Troy team returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brandon Silvers has a 54/22 career TD-INT ratio and was the first-team All Sun Belt QB in '16. Silvers has all of his skill players of note returning, including RB Jordan Chunn (1,288 rushing yards & 16 TDs), WR Emanuel Thompson (80 catches, 820 yards & 6 TDs) and WR Deondre Douglas (60/740 & 6 TDs).


Furthermore, Troy has covered the number in five consecutive games as a double-digit underdog. The Trojans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 as double-digit 'dogs, and they're 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 outings as road puppies.


In Week 6, we have new numbers for these contests: Notre Dame -2 at UNC, Clemson -21.5 vs. Wake Forest, Duke -1 at UVA, Texas Tech -7 at KU, Washington -23 vs. Cal, Oregon -2.5 vs. Washington State, Stanford -4 at Utah, South Carolina -1.5 vs. Arkansas, UGA -7.5 at Vandy, UK -5.5 vs. Missouri, Auburn -14 vs. Ole Miss, PSU -7 at Northwestern and Ohio State -28.5 vs. Maryland.


None of those Week 6 games are screaming at me, but I'll mention slight leans to Missouri +5.5 and Auburn -14.


5Dimes has Miami as a 7.5-point home favorite vs. Georgia Tech in a Thursday game during Week 7. On Friday, Clemson is favored by 17 points for its game at the Carrier Dome against the ‘Cuse. Other Week 7 lines include FSU -18.5 at Duke, U of L -17.5 vs. BC, UNC -13 vs. UVA, Pitt -3 vs. N.C. State, Iowa State -12 vs. KU, Oklahoma State -8.5 vs. Baylor, WVU -7 vs. Texas Tech, Minnesota -4 vs. Sparty, UCLA -4.5 at Arizona, Colorado -1.5 at Oregon State, Washington -14 at Arizona State, Mississippi State -3 vs. BYU, UGA -14.5 vs. Missouri, Tennessee -10.5 vs. South Carolina, Ole Miss -6 vs. Vandy and Michigan -13.5 at IU.


I have several matchups I like in Week 7 such as South Carolina +10.5, West Virginia -7, Oklahoma State -8.5 and Mississippi State -3.


New Week 8 spreads include a pivotal AAC game that falls on a Thursday in Houston, where the Cougars are favored by four vs. Memphis. Other lines for Oct. 21 are Pitt -3 at Duke, Georgia Tech -7 vs. Wake Forest, Miami -17 vs. Syracuse, UVA -2 vs. BC, Virginia Tech -7.5 vs. UNC, Texas Tech -4.5 vs. Iowa State, TCU -20 vs. KU, Northwestern -3 vs. Iowa, Cal -3 vs. Arizona, Utah -6.5 vs. ASU, Mississippi State -3 vs. UK, LSU -10 at Ole Miss and Sparty -4 vs. IU.


My Week 8 likes are Mississippi State -3, Houston -4 and Northwestern -3.


On Thursday in Week 9, 5Dimes has Stanford installed as a 9.5-point favorite for its Thursday trip to Corvallis to face Oregon State Then on Friday, FSU will probably have a cold-weather game at BC as a 22-point road ‘chalk.’


The spreads on Oct. 28 look like this: Miami -5 at UNC, Pitt -12 vs. UVA, Virginia Tech -14 vs. Duke, U of L -8 at Wake Forest, TCU -6.5 at Iowa State, K-State -17 at KU, Oklahoma -23 vs. Texas Tech, Iowa -4.5 vs. Minnesota, Nebraska -11.5 at Purdue, Washington State -6 at Arizona, USC -15 at ASU, Colorado -10.5 vs. Cal, Ole Miss -3 vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M -6.5 vs. Mississippi State, Tennessee -3 at Kentucky, South Carolina -4 vs. Vandy, Northwestern -7.5 vs. Sparty and Notre Dame -4.5 vs. N.C. State.


The Week 9 leans for me are Arkansas +3 and Florida +2 vs. Georgia.


In Week 10, we have new lines for games like FSU -25.5 vs. Syracuse, Georgia Tech -6.5 at UVA, K-State -6 at Texas Tech, Baylor -12 at KU, WVU -15.5 vs. Iowa State, Maryland -3 at Rutgers (Yankee Stadium), Michigan -14.5 vs. Minnesota, Nebraska -3 vs. Northwestern, Wisconsin -15.5 at IU, Cal pick ‘em vs. Oregon State, ASU -1 vs. CU, Auburn -7 at Texas A&M, Florida -9.5 at Missouri, Mississippi State -22.5 vs. UMass, UK -2 vs. Ole Miss and Tennessee -21 vs. Southern Miss.


I’ll be on Mark Stoops’s Kentucky squad if its laying three or fewer against the Rebels. The line on my Gators at 9.5 looks a tad rich for their trip to Missouri. I say that because I think QB Drew Lock and WR J’Mon Moore are poised for huge seasons. Also, UF be facing the Tigers one week after a crucial game vs. UGA, leaving the Gators in potential letdown mode.


As for Weeks 11, 12 and 13, 5Dimes has a lot of new games listed on its board, but the offshore shop hasn’t lined those games as of yet.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 1
August 22, 2017


2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Arizona 3-9 1-8 2-10 7-5


Arizona State 5-7 2-7 6-5 7-5


California 5-7 3-6 5-7 8-4


Colorado 10-4 8-2 10-4 5-9


Oregon 4-8 2-7 2-9-1 7-5


Oregon State 4-8 3-6 9-3 5-7


Southern California 10-3 7-2 8-5 4-9


Stanford 10-3 6-3 7-6 5-8


UCLA 4-8 2-7 4-8 4-7-1


Utah 9-4 5-4 7-6 6-7


Washington 12-2 9-1 7-7 8-5-1


Washington State 8-5 7-2 6-7 7-5-1


Oregon State at Colorado State (Sat., Aug. 26 - CBS Sports Network, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The Beavers hit the road for Fort Collins to clash with the Rams in the first game on the 2017 College Football regular season schedule, and first game at CSU's brand spanking new facility. Oregon State didn't have the greatest of seasons last year, but they did finish with seven covers across their final eight outings while winning their final two games straight up. However, they were blanked in five tries on the road in 2016, going 3-2 ATS, and they're 0-13 SU/4-9 ATS across their past 13 trips since their last road win in Colorado on Oct. 4, 2014. Colorado State made a bowl appearance last season, losing 61-50 in a shootout. That was par for the course, as they scored 37 or more points in each of their final six games while covering the last seven games of the regular season, and 10 of 11. Oregon State will turn to QB Jake Luton, a JUCO transfer, to try and turn around one of the worst passing offenses among Power 5 Conference members.


Stanford at Rice from Sydney, Australia (Sat., Aug. 26 - ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET)


Stanford and Rice will do battle down under, and Aussies might be treated to a beatdown. The Cardinal are favored by 31 points. It was a strange season for the Cardina. They still ended up with 10 wins, but it was disappointing by their standards. That shows how high the bar has been set in Palo Alto. They were humbled 44-6 in Washington Sept. 30, 2016, and belted 42-16 by Washington State at home. On Oct. 22, they were 4-3 SU/ATS through seven games and people wondered aloud if mediocrity was back in the Bay Area. But the Cardinal ripped off six wins, including their bowl game, to get to 10 wins. They lost Christian McCaffrey to the NFL, but they should be just fine going into 2017. Stanford is just 2-3 ATS over their past five regular season openers, and they lost straight-up at Northwestern the last time they opened somewhere outside of Palo Alto. They topped the Owls 41-17 to close the regular season last year, and the Cardinal are replacing key personnel. Will it be enough for the Owls to stay within the number?
New Mexico State at Arizona State (Thurs., Aug. 31 - Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Sun Devils open with the Aggies, who are barely an FBS team. The Aggies have posted three or fewer wins in five consecutive seasons, and they haven't had a winning campaign since the 2002 season. Arizona State isn't used to losing seasons, but that's what they experienced last year when they lost to rival Arizona in the finale to miss a bowl bid. Arizona State is favored to win by more than three touchdowns in their opener, and they're 8-1 ATS over the past nine outings. Conversely, NMSU is 9-19 ATS over the past 28 road battles. A high-scoring game could be on tap, as the 'over' is 21-5-1 in the past 27 road outings for the Aggies, and the Sun Devils hit the over in four of their past five home contests.


Colorado State at Colorado from Denver, Colo. (Fri., Sept. 1 - Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Rams will already have a game under its belt when they invade Sports Authority Field in Denver for their rivalry game with the Buffaloes. Colorado had a great season in 2016, rising back to prominence after many awful and trying seasons since joining the Pac-12. The Rams enter the season 14-4-1 ATS over their past 19 non-conference games, but they're 0-4-1 in their past five neutral-site battles. The Buffaloes are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five on a neutral-site field. Total bettors might be especially interested in this rivalry game, as the 'under' has hit in eight of the past nine games. The underdog is also 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series.


Washington at Rutgers (Fri., Sept. 1 - FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Huskies made the four-team playoff last season, but they were bounced by a much more superior Alabama team. Washington looks to climb the mountain again, hoping to take that next step forward. They can start climbing that mountain with a convincing win against Rutgers in a cross-country trip to open the season. The Huskies waffled the Scarlet Knights by a 48-13 count to open the 2016 season, covering a 25-point number. Washington's roster is littered with stars again, and they return 13 starters. QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin are back, as is LB Azeem Victor along with the league's best front seven. That's bad news for a Rutgers team that is barely competitive against bottom-tier FBS teams.


California at North Carolina (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels open as 12 1/2-point favorite against the visiting Bears. California hasn't had a lot of luck, failing to cover over their past four road games. However, Cal has had some luck in their past non-conference tilts, covering five of the past seven. The Golden Bears have to replace QB Davis Webb, and that will be their biggest question mark. Will either Ross Bowers or Chase Forrest be ready, especially after a cross-country flight, playing on the road in hostile territory in their first-ever start? New O.C. Beau Baldwin, formerly head coach of high-flying FCS program Eastern Washington, will make this offense fun, but it might take time. UNC also must replace QB Mitch Trubisky, a big hole, as well as stud TBs Elijah Hood, T.J. Logan, WRs Bug Howard and Ryan Switzer, as well as three offensive linemen. The defense will be fine with six starters back, but there are a ton of question marks on offense.


Western Michigan at Southern California (Sat., Sept. 2 - Pac-12 Network, 5:15 p.m. ET)
The Trojans look for a quick start, and they have one of the most dangerous weapons in the country in QB Sam Darnold. It's a tough opener against a Western Michigan team which posted 13 regular-season victories before playing Wisconsin tough in the Cotton Bowl, covering in a 24-16 loss. With success of a mid-level program, losses are harder to overcome. Head coach P.J. Fleck left for Minnesota and WR Corey Davis is now playing his football for the Tennessee Titans. However, they still have a strong pass rush to give Darnold a much bigger test than some other top QBs who will be opening with cupcakes. USC opened as a 24-point favorite, and bettors are now expecting them to win by nearly four touchdowns. While USC is expected to be a playoff contender, Western Michigan is coming off a New Year's Day bowl and will not be a pushover.

Texas A&M at UCLA (Sun., Sept. 3 - FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
In one of the final games of the opening weekend, Texas A&M invades the Rose Bowl to battle UCLA. While a lot of the national media focuses on cross-town rival USC's QB, the Bruins have a good one of their own in Josh Rosen. He is making his way back from a shoulder injury which derailed his season early on. He is healthy, and if the team's offensive line play is better he has a chance to lead this team to big things. The Aggies have promise at QB, but it's uncertain if we'll see Jake Hubenek, Kellen Mond or Nick Starkel - or all three - in the opener. Both teams have struggled in non-conference games lately, with A&M 2-6 ATS in their past eight and UCLA 0-5 ATS in their past five outside of the conferences.


Other Games
North Dakota at Utah (Thu., Aug. 31 - Pac-12 Network, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Portland State at Oregon State (Sat., Sept. 2 - Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Southern Utah at Oregon (Sat., Sept. 2 - Pac-12 Network, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Montana State at Washington State (Sat., Sept. 2, FOX Sports 1, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Northern Arizona at Arizona (Sat., Sept. 2, Pac-12 Network, 11:00 p.m. ET)

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 1
August 22, 2017


2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Baylor 7-6 3-6 4-9 4-9


Iowa State 3-9 2-7 7-5 8-4


Kansas 2-10 1-8 6-6 5-7


Kansas State 9-4 6-3 6-7 7-6


Oklahoma 11-2 9-0 7-6 6-7


Oklahoma State 10-3 7-2 8-5 7-6


Texas 5-7 3-6 6-6 4-8


Texas Christian 6-7 4-5 3-10 6-7


Texas Tech 5-7 3-6 8-4 7-5


West Virginia 10-3 7-2 5-8 5-8


Tulsa at Oklahoma State (Thurs. - FOX Sports 1, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Originally set for Saturday, this contest will now kick off on Thursday night in Stillwater. These Sooner State universities have met frequently on the gridiron, with Oklahoma State holding a 39-28-5 all-time series lead. This will be the third-ever meeting to open a new season, however. The offense has been prolific in Tulsa for most of Philip Montgomery's tenure, but the Golden Hurricane must replace some big guns. QB Dane Evans expired his eligibility and top WRs Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson are gone. QBs Chad President and Luke Skipper look to fill the void under center. For the first time in a while, the running backs spot appears to be the strength of Tulsa. For OK State, they need no reinforcements on offense, as QB Mason Rudolph is back with his cadre of high-flying receivers, led by James Washington. The difference in this game from the outset will be OK State's defensive line pressure againt an untested QB.


Maryland at Texas (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)
If not for Rutgers, Maryland would be battling Indiana to avoid the cellar in the East Division in the Big Ten Conference. For Texas, it's a brand new day with Tom Herman taking the reins after Charlie Strong was relieved of his duties. Big things are expected of the Longhorns in 2017, but when isn't that the case in football-crazy Texas? In recent season the Terrapins of UMD have struggled, wrapping up their 2016 campaign 1-5 ATS over their final six games while going a dismal 0-6 ATS over the past six on the road. They're also 1-4 ATS in their past five outings outside of the conference. For Texas, they've been a tough out in Austin, at least against the number lately, going 7-3 ATS over their past 10 outings. However, they've covered just one of their past five showings against the Big Ten. In terms of non-conference games and the total, the 'under' is 4-1-1 in the past six for the Terps, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past six the the burnt orange.

Texas-El Paso at Oklahoma (FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET)
This game isn't terribly attractive if you want to see a good game, as Oklahoma opened as a 48-point favorite. It has been bet down into the 44-45 point range, but it is still expected to be a blood bath. Still, plenty of eyes will be on Norman as Lincoln Riley coaches his first game for Boomer Sooner. Oklahoma failed to cover last season against Louisiana-Monroe as a 46-point favorite in a cupcake matchup in mid-September, and they're 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS over their past five season openers, too, including a straight-up loss to Houston last season. The Miners showed some improvement down the stretch, winning three of their final six games. But they have a long way to go before they're remotely close to Oklahoma in terms of talent. Still, they might give the Sooners a better game than the likes of Kansas.

Eastern Washington at Texas Tech (No national TV, 4:00 p.m. ET)
If you like offense, this could be the game for you. Eastern Washington might be an FCS team, but they're the national champs of that level from 2010, and they have been a giant killer -- or at least a giant scarer -- in recent seasons. They won at Washington State, 45-42, to open their season in 2016, and put up 42 against a good Oregon squad in a loss back in 2015. They also gave Washington a run for its money, 59-52, back in 2014, while knocking off No. 25 Oregon State to open the 2013 campaign in Corvallis. So don't expect the Eagles to be intimidated, or outscored by much. A win over Texas Tech could turn up the temperature on the hot seat of head coach Kliff Kingsbury to intense heat. Offense is never a problem in Lubbock, and QB Nic Shimonek is the next great, taking over for the departed Patrick Mahomes. But defense needs to improve quickly after allowing 43.5 points per game, or it's going to be another disappointing season.


West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech from Landover, MD (Sun. - ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Unless you're alumni, or from the Appalachia region, this game doesn't have as much meaning. But, ahh, you'll watch because it's football, and, well, it's football. The Mountaineers of the Big 12 head to suburban D.C. looking to shine their star a bit. They haven't fared well against the number in big games in recent times, going 6-15 ATS in their past 21 against ACC foes, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference battles and 0-4 ATS in their past four on a neutral field. On the flip side, Virginia Tech is tabbed to contend for the Coastal Division in the ACC, and another 10-win season could easily be within reach. The 'over' has hit in four of the past five for West Virginia on a neutral field, whilegoing 5-1-1 in Virginia Tech's past seven in such situations. Therefore an offensive feast might be on tap. Virginia Tech has hit the over in 13 of their past 16 outside of the ACC, too.


Other Games
Liberty at Baylor (Kickoff time still TBD)
Southeast Missouri State at Kansas (No national TV, 7:00 p.m.)
Central Arkansas at Kansas State (No national TV, 7:10 p.m.)
Northern Iowa at Iowa State (No national TV, 8:00 p.m.)
Jackson State at Texas Christian (FOX, 8:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 1
August 22, 2017


2016 ACC STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under


Boston College 7-6 2-6 6-6-1 5-8


Clemson 14-1 7-1 8-7 8-7


Duke 4-8 1-7 7-5 4-8


Florida State 10-3 5-3 8-4 6-6


Georgia Tech 9-4 4-4 7-4-1 6-5-1


Louisville 9-4 7-1 5-7-1 8-5


Miami (Fla.) 9-4 5-3 9-4 6-7


North Carolina 8-5 5-3 8-5 4-9


North Carolina State 7-6 4-5 9-4 5-7-1


Pittsburgh 8-5 5-3 5-8 11-2


Syracuse 4-8 2-6 5-7 3-9


Virginia 2-10 1-7 4-7-1 4-7-1


Virginia Tech 10-4 6-3 8-6 8-6


Wake Forest 7-6 3-5 8-5 6-7

Boston College at Northern Illinois (Fri. - CBS Sports Network, 9:30 p.m. ET)
The Eagles hit the road for DeKalb, Ill. to meet the Huskies of NIU, a team looking to bounce back from a disappointing 5-7 record. It was the first losing season for Northern Illinois, normally a powerhouse in the MAC, since 2007. They also had their streak of eight streak seasons in a bowl game snapped, so they'll be champing at the bit looking to fire out of the gate against a Power 5 representative. Boston College looks to pick up where they left off last season, as they rebounded nicely in 2016 with two wins down the stretch to go bowling, eventually beating former ACC member Maryland in the Quick Lane Bowl. redshirt freshman Anthony Brown might be the answer at quarterback, as the Eagles look for excitement. Jon Hilliman and Davon Jones will tote the mail more often than not, with true freshman A.J. Dillon a potential star-in-the-making. B.C. already has one win under its belt, as they beat out Michigan for Dillon's services just before National Signing Day. DE Harold Landry, and his nation-leading 16 1/2 sacks, will be back to terrorize the NIU backfield.

Kent State at Clemson (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The defending national champion Tigers welcome Kent State to the upstate, and this could be ugly early out of the gates. Many have the Golden Flashes predicted to finish last in the MAC East, as head coach Paul Haynes' seat is getting awfully toasty. Clemson opened as 40-point favorites, bet down slightly. That number should fluctuate even more before the opening kick. The Tigers were 3-4 ATS last season as a 20-plus-point favorite last season, although they did cover a 53 1/2-point number against South Carolina State. However, their first home game (second overall) was a sluggish 30-24 win against Troy, so might be see another stumble out of the gate before


California at North Carolina (ACC Network, 12:20 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels open as 12 1/2-point favorite against the visiting Bears. California hasn't had a lot of luck, failing to cover over their past four road games. However, Cal has had some luck in their past non-conference tilts, covering five of the past seven. The Golden Bears have to replace QB Davis Webb, and that will be their biggest question mark. Will either Ross Bowers or Chase Forrest be ready, especially after a cross-country flight, playing on the road in hostile territory in their first-ever start? New O.C. Beau Baldwin, formerly head coach of high-flying FCS program Eastern Washington, will make this offense fun, but it might take time. UNC also must replace QB Mitch Trubisky, a big hole, as well as stud TBs Elijah Hood, T.J. Logan, WRs Bug Howard and Ryan Switzer, as well as three offensive linemen. The defense will be fine with six starters back, but there are a ton of question marks on offense.



North Carolina State vs. South Carolina from Charlotte, NC (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)
The Wolfpack and Gamecocks will do battle at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. BOA was a nice place to start in 2015, as the 'Cocks topped UNC 17-13 before their season unraveled. With a short jaunt up Interstate 77 from Columbia, you can expect a pro-South Carolina crowd despite the game being played behind enemy lines. South Carolina has covered four straight neutral-site games, while N.C. State is equally impressive with a 7-3-1 ATS mark over their past 11 such situations. And the Wolfpack has posted a glamorous 11-2 ATS mark over their past 13 non-conference tilts, although this is a step up from the Old Dominions, Presbyterians and South Alabamas of the world. Ryan Finley is back to lead the offense, and the dynamic Jaylen Samuels has the chance to be one of the best players in the league.

Louisville vs. Purdue from Indianapolis, IN (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)
The Cardinals return Heisman Trophy QB Lamar Jackson, and that already makes them a team to watch. However, they'll have their hands full trying to supplant Clemson, and perhaps even Florida State, at the top of the ACC, although the Cards certainly handled the 'Noles easily last season. The Cardinals ripped off 42.5 points per game (PPG) last season, but they'll be missing key cogs with RB Brandon Radcliff, WRs James Quick and Jamari Staples, as well as TE Cole Hikutini, all having moved on. Jaylen Smith could be the player ready to step up and be the next offensive star, and a quick start against a Purdue squad picked to finish at or near the bottom of the West Division in the Big Ten. Louisville opened as 24 1/2-point favorites and that number has been on the rise. Purdue doesn't really seem to have the guns to get into a track meet at Lucas Oil Stadium with what should be a much speedier Cardinals offense, even with some new parts.

Florida State vs. Alabama from Atlanta, GA (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Crimson Tide and Seminoles will be the gem of the opening weekend, doing battle in the brand spanking news Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Tide are favored by a touchdown to roll on the Seminoles, who are looking to bounce back from a subpar season by their standards, if you can call 10 wins subpar. FSU finished strong, winning five straight and covering four in a row, but they were a dismal 5-3 SU through eight games with a blowout loss in Louisville (63-20), as well as setbacks on their home turf to Clemson and UNC. The 'Noles would like a signature win against a high-profile Tide team, boosting their stock immediately. However, FSU will need to find a workhorse to replace Dalvin Cook, and that will not be easy. QB Jalen Hurts is back for the Tide, and he should be even better after a big season, although he occasionally would look like a freshman, too. The mistakes should be even fewer, and that's not good for the rest of the nation. The 'over' might be the way to go, as it is 20-6-1 in Alabama's past 27 neutral-site games and 4-0-1 in their past five vs. ACC foes. The over has hit in six straight neutral-site battles for FSU, while going4-1 in their past five non-conference affairs.

West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech from Landover, MD (Sun. - ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
Unless you're alumni, or from the Appalachia region, this game doesn't have as much meaning. But, ahh, you'll watch because it's football, and, well, it's football. The Mountaineers of the Big 12 head to suburban D.C. looking to shine their star a bit. They haven't fared well against the number in big games in recent times, going 6-15 ATS in their past 21 against ACC foes, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference battles and 0-4 ATS in their past four on a neutral field. On the flip side, Virginia Tech is tabbed to contend for the Coastal Division in the ACC, and another 10-win season could easily be within reach. The 'over' has hit in four of the past five for West Virginia on a neutral field, whilegoing 5-1-1 in Virginia Tech's past seven in such situations. Therefore an offensive feast might be on tap. Virginia Tech has hit the over in 13 of their past 16 outside of the ACC, too.

Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech from Atlanta, GA (Mon. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
The Volunteers will head down Interstate 75 and into enemy territory to face the Yellow Jackets. While technically not a home game, the game is in Atlanta and will be a pro-Ramblin' Wreck crowd, although plenty of burnt orange will be on hand, too. The Vols are favored, even so slightly, in a game with a line bouncing between 3 1/2 and 6. The Vols have been great in their recent neutral-site contests, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past six tries. Ga. Tech has been very good, too, going 3-0-1 ATS in their past four on a neutral field, while hitting a perfect 4-for-4 in their past four outside of the conference. Tennessee will be christening a new quarterback, and Quinten Dormady and Jarrett Guarantano should both see some snaps. They will find a rather inexperienced, yet potential explosive wideout corps facing down against a decent Yellow Jackets secondary. With inexperience on the offensive side of the ball, and a strong Georgia Tech run game and questionable QB play on their end, too, a low-scoring game might be in the offing.


Other Games
Presbyterian at Wake Forest (Thu. - 6:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Central Conn. at Syracuse (Fri. - 7:00 p.m., ACC Network)
Bethune-Cook. at Miami, FL (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
Youngstown St. at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 1:00 p.m.)
William & Mary at Virginia (ACC Network, 3:30 p.m.)
North Carolina Central at Duke (ACC Network, 6:00 p.m.)

 

[CNOTES]

GOY Best Bets Update
August 16, 2017


We’ve hit on Games of the Year throughout the summer, whether it was ones released at the South Point, The Golden Nugget or the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas or various other offshore shops. One of those books, 5Dimes.eu, has recently released additional GOY that I haven’t seen posted at any other books.


Let’s hit on a bunch of those, including a pair of Friday night games in Week 2. South Alabama will host a Power Five team for only the third time in school history when Oklahoma State comes to Mobile on Sept. 8. 5Dimes has installed the Cowboys as 27-point road favorites.


USA lost at home to N.C. State by a 63-13 count two years ago and dropped a 35-3 decision to Dak Prescott and Mississippi State in 2014. However, the Jaguars won outright at Mississippi State in last year’s opener and also blew out then-unbeaten and 19th-ranked San Diego State 42-24 as 19-point home underdogs in ’16.


OSU will bring an explosive passing game to Ladd-Peebles Stadium featuring QB Mason Rudolph and WRs James Washington and Jalen McCleskey. This trio won’t have to face South Alabama’s premier cover corner Jalen Thompson, who has been ruled academically ineligible for the 2017 campaign. Thompson finished ’16 with 31 tackles, a team-high four interceptions, six passes broken up, one-half sack and 1.5 tackles for loss.


The other game that night is Ohio at Purdue. The Boilermakers are one-point home ‘chalk’ at 5Dimes. They’ll open the Jeff Brohm Era the previous week in Indianapolis where his alma mater (Louisville) will serve as Purdue’s opponent. Ohio opens at home against Hampton.


Frank Solich’s team finished 8-6 straight up and 7-7 against the spread last season. Ohio returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. The Bobcats have covered in their last three games on the road against Power Five schools. They took the cash in a 2015 loss at Minnesota (27-24) as 10-point underdogs, and then won outright at Kansas (37-21) last year and covered easily in a 28-19 loss at Tennessee. Solich’s club is 5-1 ATS in six games as a road ‘dog over the last two seasons.


Other Week 2 numbers include Northwestern -2 at Duke, Louisville -6 at North Carolina, Michigan -28 vs. Cincinnati, Boston College pick ‘em vs. Wake Forest, Alabama -42.5 vs. Fresno State, Virginia pick ‘em vs. Indiana, Missouri -1 vs. South Carolina, FSU -41.5 vs. ULM and Mississippi State -4.5 at La. Tech.


When Mississippi State last visited Ruston in the final season of Sylvester Croom’s tenure (’08), it lost outright by a 22-14 score. Northwestern won 19-10 at Duke two seasons ago and prevailed 24-13 in Evanston last year. We should note that Alabama has limped to a 3-13 spread record in its last 16 spots as a favorite of 35 points or more.

Since UCLA’s Week 3 game at Memphis was slotted for a noon Eastern kick several weeks ago, I’ve been talking on radio shows and my Games Galore podcast about how advantageous this game is for the Tigers from a situational standpoint. Obviously, flying East for the Bruins won’t be easy and the early kick will have their body clocks all messed up. In addition, the heat at the Liberty Bowl in mid-September during an early-afternoon game will be brutal compared to the more moderate temperatures UCLA players are accustomed to in Southern California.


I’ve been saying I like Memphis to win this game for weeks and will like the ‘over’ if the total is 75 points or fewer. 5Dimes has the Bruins favored by 2.5 points, so sign me up for the Tigers, who will have a dynamic offense led by QB Riley Ferguson and WR Anthony Miller.


One week after venturing to Mobile, Oklahoma State is on the road again to take on Pittsburgh at Heinz Field. 5Dimes has the Cowboys favored by six points. We should note that the star of Pitt’s defense, junior safety Jordan Whitehead, won’t be in uniform due to a three-game suspension that will end after this game. Remember, the Pokies won a 45-38 decision over the Panthers in Stillwater last September.


Whitehead, who Phil Steele has listed as the third-best strong safety that’s draft eligible for the NFL in 2018, recorded 65 tackles and one interception in nine games last season. Also, Pitt has dismissed senior starting DE Rori Blair from the program. Blair had 22 tackles, 3.5 sacks and five QB hurries in ’16. Therefore, Oklahoma State’s Rudolph will have some good fortune in these back-to-back road contests due to the absences of USA’s Thompson and Pitt’s Whitehead in the secondary. (And hey, we liked OSU to go ‘over’ 9 wins, win the Big 12 and get to the College Football Playoff before learning about Thompson, Whitehead and Blair.)


Other Week 3 lines are Notre Dame -7 at Boston College, South Carolina -2.5 vs. Kentucky, Missouri -11.5 vs. Purdue, Baylor -3 at Duke, Virginia Tech -21.5 at East Carolina, Washington State -11 vs. Oregon State, Alabama -28.5 vs. Colorado State, Kansas State -6 at Vanderbilt, Ohio State -30 vs. Army, Ole Miss -3.5 at California, Georgia Tech -6.5 at UCF and Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Arizona State.


If there’s one game that stands out to me among those in the above paragraph, I’m all about South Carolina -2.5 vs. UK at Williams-Brice Stadium. I’ll also mention that I would lean to Vandy as a home ‘dog vs. K-State. The Commodores are 7-1 ATS in their last eight such spots.


On a Friday game (9/22) in Week 4, Virginia is listed as a nine-point ‘dog at 5Dimes for its trip to the smurf turf to take on Boise State. UVA not only has to fly West, but it must do so on a short week. This obviously gives BSU a major advantage.


(Quick Note: These “new” games have double juice both ways (-120 to bet either side). On the flip side, the games that have had numbers on them (like Texas A&M vs Arkansas in Week 4 at Jerry World) have -110 odds either way.)


Other Week 4 lines include Clemson -25.5 vs. BC, UNC -8 vs. Duke, West Virginia -13 at Kansas, Ohio State -36 vs. UNLV, Maryland -4.5 vs. UCF, Miami -15 vs. Toledo, FSU -19.5 vs. N.C. State, Georgia Tech -2 vs. Pitt, Oregon -3 at Arizona State, Florida -5.5 at Kentucky, Alabama -23 at Vandy, Washington -9 at Colorado, South Carolina -11 vs. La. Tech, LSU -20.5 vs. Syracuse, Georgia -10.5 vs. Mississippi State, Auburn -13 at Missouri, Michigan -22 at Purdue and Appalachian State -3 vs. Wake Forest.


Keep an eye on Toledo in its trip to South Fla. If the Rockets have their druthers, they certainly want this game to be played at night to alleviate some of the intense heat in Miami. Toledo catches the Hurricanes one week after they play a rivalry game at FSU and before they go on the road to play Duke in a nationally-televised Friday night game. The Rockets have Logan Woodside, who completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 4,129 passing yards with a 45/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year. Since 2011, Toledo is 14-5 ATS as a road ‘dog.


Florida has won 30 in a row over Kentucky, which is college football’s longest current winning streak in a head-to-head rivalry. Colorado will be looking to avenge the 41-10 beatdown it took from Washington in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game. If I had to throw out a few leans in these Week 4 tilts, I’d look at Missouri as a double-digit home ‘dog to vs. AU and N.C. State (my ACC sleeper) catching the big number in Tallahassee. I want to add Appalachian State as well, but I want to see how it fares in its opener between the hedges before showing too much confidence in the Mountaineers (although they’re my pick to win the Sun Belt ahead of Troy).


Moving on to Week 5, Texas is a nine-point ‘chalk’ at Iowa State on Thursday night. There are four games on Friday, including three “new lines:” Miami -11 at Duke, BYU -10.5 at Utah State and Nebraska -10.5 at Illinois. The fourth Friday game is Washington State +10 vs. Southern Cal, and I like the Cougars. They’ll be playing their fifth consecutive home game in Pullman, while the Trojans will be on a short week and on the road again after facing Cal in Berkeley the previous Saturday.


Other Week 5 lines are N.C. State -10 vs. the ‘Cuse, FSU -19.5 at Wake Forest, Oklahoma State -10 at Texas Tech, PSU -21 vs. IU, Michigan State pick ‘em vs. Iowa, Minnesota -10.5 vs. Maryland, Wisconsin -13.5 vs. Northwestern, Washington -14 at Oregon State, Auburn -14 vs. Mississippi State, Alabama -25 vs. Ole Miss, Texas A&M -6.5 vs. South Carolina, LSU -23 vs. Troy, Florida -14 vs. Vandy and Notre Dame -19.5 vs. Miami (OH.).


I like Miami (OH.) catching the big number in South Bend. The RedHawks started ’16 by losing their first six games (three one-possession L’s) mainly because QB Gus Ragland wasn’t fully healthy yet. Ragland returned to the starting lineup and promptly led his team on a six-game winning streak to earn a postseason bid.


In the St. Petersburg Bowl, Miami (OH.) had a potential game-winning field goal blocked on the final play of a 17-16 loss to Mississippi State. Nevertheless, Ragland finished the year with 17 TD passes compared to only one interception. He has a 20/1 career TD-INT ratio and gets back both of his top WRs and the three leading rushers. The RedHawks return nine starters on offense and eight on defense. They also have their five leading tacklers back. Don’t be shocked if Ragland has Miami (OH.) in this game against the Fighting Irish for four quarters.


Another team to keep an eye on in a non-conference clash is Troy for its trip to Baton Rouge. LSU will have a huge revenge game on deck at Florida, meaning it will fall into a vintage look-ahead scenario. The Trojans finished last season 10-3, losing by only six on the road in the other Death Valley against the eventual national champs (Clemson obviously).


Neal Brown's Troy team returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brandon Silvers has a 54/22 career TD-INT ratio and was the first-team All Sun Belt QB in '16. Silvers has all of his skill players of note returning, including RB Jordan Chunn (1,288 rushing yards & 16 TDs), WR Emanuel Thompson (80 catches, 820 yards & 6 TDs) and WR Deondre Douglas (60/740 & 6 TDs).


Furthermore, Troy has covered the number in five consecutive games as a double-digit underdog. The Trojans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 as double-digit 'dogs, and they're 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 outings as road puppies.


In Week 6, we have new numbers for these contests: Notre Dame -2 at UNC, Clemson -21.5 vs. Wake Forest, Duke -1 at UVA, Texas Tech -7 at KU, Washington -23 vs. Cal, Oregon -2.5 vs. Washington State, Stanford -4 at Utah, South Carolina -1.5 vs. Arkansas, UGA -7.5 at Vandy, UK -5.5 vs. Missouri, Auburn -14 vs. Ole Miss, PSU -7 at Northwestern and Ohio State -28.5 vs. Maryland.


None of those Week 6 games are screaming at me, but I'll mention slight leans to Missouri +5.5 and Auburn -14.


5Dimes has Miami as a 7.5-point home favorite vs. Georgia Tech in a Thursday game during Week 7. On Friday, Clemson is favored by 17 points for its game at the Carrier Dome against the ‘Cuse. Other Week 7 lines include FSU -18.5 at Duke, U of L -17.5 vs. BC, UNC -13 vs. UVA, Pitt -3 vs. N.C. State, Iowa State -12 vs. KU, Oklahoma State -8.5 vs. Baylor, WVU -7 vs. Texas Tech, Minnesota -4 vs. Sparty, UCLA -4.5 at Arizona, Colorado -1.5 at Oregon State, Washington -14 at Arizona State, Mississippi State -3 vs. BYU, UGA -14.5 vs. Missouri, Tennessee -10.5 vs. South Carolina, Ole Miss -6 vs. Vandy and Michigan -13.5 at IU.


I have several matchups I like in Week 7 such as South Carolina +10.5, West Virginia -7, Oklahoma State -8.5 and Mississippi State -3.


New Week 8 spreads include a pivotal AAC game that falls on a Thursday in Houston, where the Cougars are favored by four vs. Memphis. Other lines for Oct. 21 are Pitt -3 at Duke, Georgia Tech -7 vs. Wake Forest, Miami -17 vs. Syracuse, UVA -2 vs. BC, Virginia Tech -7.5 vs. UNC, Texas Tech -4.5 vs. Iowa State, TCU -20 vs. KU, Northwestern -3 vs. Iowa, Cal -3 vs. Arizona, Utah -6.5 vs. ASU, Mississippi State -3 vs. UK, LSU -10 at Ole Miss and Sparty -4 vs. IU.


My Week 8 likes are Mississippi State -3, Houston -4 and Northwestern -3.


On Thursday in Week 9, 5Dimes has Stanford installed as a 9.5-point favorite for its Thursday trip to Corvallis to face Oregon State Then on Friday, FSU will probably have a cold-weather game at BC as a 22-point road ‘chalk.’


The spreads on Oct. 28 look like this: Miami -5 at UNC, Pitt -12 vs. UVA, Virginia Tech -14 vs. Duke, U of L -8 at Wake Forest, TCU -6.5 at Iowa State, K-State -17 at KU, Oklahoma -23 vs. Texas Tech, Iowa -4.5 vs. Minnesota, Nebraska -11.5 at Purdue, Washington State -6 at Arizona, USC -15 at ASU, Colorado -10.5 vs. Cal, Ole Miss -3 vs. Arkansas, Texas A&M -6.5 vs. Mississippi State, Tennessee -3 at Kentucky, South Carolina -4 vs. Vandy, Northwestern -7.5 vs. Sparty and Notre Dame -4.5 vs. N.C. State.


The Week 9 leans for me are Arkansas +3 and Florida +2 vs. Georgia.


In Week 10, we have new lines for games like FSU -25.5 vs. Syracuse, Georgia Tech -6.5 at UVA, K-State -6 at Texas Tech, Baylor -12 at KU, WVU -15.5 vs. Iowa State, Maryland -3 at Rutgers (Yankee Stadium), Michigan -14.5 vs. Minnesota, Nebraska -3 vs. Northwestern, Wisconsin -15.5 at IU, Cal pick ‘em vs. Oregon State, ASU -1 vs. CU, Auburn -7 at Texas A&M, Florida -9.5 at Missouri, Mississippi State -22.5 vs. UMass, UK -2 vs. Ole Miss and Tennessee -21 vs. Southern Miss.


I’ll be on Mark Stoops’s Kentucky squad if its laying three or fewer against the Rebels. The line on my Gators at 9.5 looks a tad rich for their trip to Missouri. I say that because I think QB Drew Lock and WR J’Mon Moore are poised for huge seasons. Also, UF be facing the Tigers one week after a crucial game vs. UGA, leaving the Gators in potential letdown mode.

As for Weeks 11, 12 and 13, 5Dimes has a lot of new games listed on its board, but the offshore shop hasn’t lined those games as of yet.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Early Tips
August 22, 2017

Finally, the 2017 college football season has arrived! The year gets started Saturday with five lined games, so let’s take a look at a pair of those contests now.


**Oregon State at Colorado State**


-- Gary Andersen is entering his third season of a rebuild job in Corvallis after he left Wisconsin to replace Mike Riley at Oregon State. The Beavers went 2-10 straight up and 3-9 against the spread in his first year, improving to 4-8 SU and 8-4 versus the number last season. They finished 2016 on a tear for our purposes, compiling a 7-1 spread record in their last eight games, winning outright in their last two outings at home vs. Arizona (42-17) and Oregon (34-24).


-- Andersen named juco transfer Jake Luton his starting quarterback in mid-August, prompting Marcus McMaryion to leave the program for Fresno State as a grad transfer. McMaryion started the last six games for the Beavers in 2016. For the season, he completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,286 yards with a 10/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.


-- Oregon State returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. OSU is loaded in the backfield with running back Ryan Nall returning. Nall rushed for 951 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. RB Artavis Pierce had a solid true freshman season in ’16, rushing for 523 yards and four TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Andersen landed a pair of grad transfers for depth, including Trevorris Johnson from TCU and Oregon’s Thomas Tyner, who is a former 5-star recruit but hasn’t played since 2014 due to injuries. Nall also had 22 catches for 214 yards and two TDs last year, while Pierce had 21 receptions for 132 yards and one TD.


-- Oregon State junior WR Seth Collins is ‘out’ against the Rams due to a finger injury that could keep him sidelined into September. Collins, who started seven games at QB in 2015 before logging nine starts at WR last season, had 36 receptions for 418 yards and one TD in 2016.


-- As of Aug. 18, most betting shops had Colorado State installed as a 3.5-point favorite. One offshore book opened the total at 62 on Aug. 13, but it moved down to 61 a day later and remained there on Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), the total was at 58.5 or 59 at most spots, while the Rams remained 3.5-point home ‘chalk’ (with a couple of shops at four). Gamblers can take the Beavers on the money line for a +155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

-- Oregon State owns a 5-6 spread record as a road underdog during Anderson’s brief tenure. The Beavers are winless in those 11 road assignments, but we’ll point out that they did take the cash in last year’s season-opening loss at Minnesota by a 30-23 count as 13-point ‘dogs.


-- Colorado State has finished 7-6 in both of its first two seasons under Mike Bobo, the former QB and long-time offensive coordinator at Georgia before getting his first head-coaching gig at CSU. The Rams were an impressive 9-4 ATS last year, going 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS at home. They have compiled a 5-2 spread record in seven games as home favorites on Bobo’s watch.


-- CSU brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. Bobo’s team returns its top four rushers, two excellent QBs and three of its top four WRs. Nick Stevens completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,936 yards with a 19/5 TD-INT ratio in ’16. He also ran for a pair of scores. Stevens has a 41/17 career TD-INT ratio in 21 career starts, but he was intercepted only three times in his last seven starts of last season. He was a second-team All-MWC selection in ’15.


-- As a true freshman in ’16, CSU’s Collin Hill was named the starting QB in Week 3. He would go 2-2 in four starts before going down with a season-ending injury in a 31-24 home win over Utah State Before the injury, Hill connected on 58.1 percent of his throws for 1,096 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. Stevens has been named the starter, but Hill is healthy and ready to go.


-- Stevens has one of the best wideouts in the Mountain West Conference in senior Michael Gallup, who earned first-team All-MWC honors after catching 76 balls for 1,272 yards and 14 TDs in ’16. Olabisi Johnson had 28 receptions for 613 yards and four TDs last season, averaging 21.9 yards per catch.


-- Colorado State’s offensive line is anchored by center Jake Bennett, a second-team All-MWC selection last year who has 29 career starts to his credit. The only other o-line starter that’s back is senior OT Zack Golditch, who has made 25 career starts. This unit will look to pave holes for Dalyn Dawkins, Izzy Matthews, Marvin Kinsey and Detrich Clark, who combined to rush for nearly 2,300 yards and 27 rushing TDs last year.


-- Kinsey rushed for a team-best 919 yards and four TDs with a 5.7 YPC average last season. Matthews rushed for 734 yards and a team-high 13 TDs while averaging 4.8 YPC. Kinsey, who is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. OSU with a knee injury, rushed for 546 yards and seven TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Clark has moved to WR after rushing for 247 yards and three TDs on 36 attempts (6.9 YPC).


-- CSU junior DB Braylin Scott is out indefinitely due to legal issues. Scott recorded 39 tackles and three interceptions last year. Senior LB Deonte Clyburn, a likely starter if he can get back to 100-percent health remained out indefinitely due to blood clots. Clyburn redshirted last season for a similar issue, but he registered 74 tackles and seven tackles for loss in ’15.


-- These schools have met twice before, splitting a pair of meetings, but they haven’t faced each other since 1975. This is OSU’s first trip to Ft. Collins and it is only the fourth time a Power Five opponent has come here since 2004. Andersen went 1-1 against the Rams when he was the head coach at Utah State prior to leaving for Wisconsin.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.

**Hawaii at Massachusetts**


-- As of Aug. 18, this game was a pick ‘em at many spots, while others had either team favored by one point. One offshore shop opened the total at 64, but it went up to 64.5 the next day and that’s where it remained as of Aug. 18. By Tuesday of this week (8/22), most books had UMass favored by 1.5 or two with the total down to 62.5 points.


-- Hawaii went 7-7 SU and 5-8-1 ATS last season, going to its first bowl game since 2010 in its first year under head coach Nick Rolovich. The Warriors thumped Middle Tennessee by a 52-35 count as seven-point home underdog in the Hawaii Bowl. However, we should note that the Blue Raiders were without their star QB Brent Stockstill.


-- During Norm Chow’s dismal tenure at Hawaii from 2012-2015, the Warriors lost 23 of 24 road games. However, they went 3-3 on the road last year under Rolovich, winning outright at San Jose State, at Air Force (in double overtime as 16.5-point ‘dogs) and at Fresno State


-- Hawaii returns eight starters on offense and six on defense. The offense is led by sophomore QB Dru Brown, who took over as the starter after the Warriors lost three of their first four games last season. Brown completed 62.4 percent of his throws for 2,488 yards with a 19/7 TD-INT ratio. He loses his favorite target Marcus Kemp, but the team has plenty of depth and experience at the WR position. As a redshirt freshman in ’16, John Ursua hauled in 53 receptions for 652 yards and three TDs. Dylan Collie added 33 catches for 322 yards and four TDs.


-- Hawaii RB Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for a team-high 1,006 yards and three TDs last year, averaging 6.1 YPC in the process. He also had eight catches for 56 yards and one TD.


-- Hawaii’s defense is led by All-American candidate Jahlani Tavai, a junior LB who garnered first-team All-MWC honors after tallying 129 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles, two passes broken up, one fumble recovery and one interception in ’16. Senior safety Trayvon Henderson is another standout, recording 90 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, two sacks, seven PBU, one QB hurry, one blocked kick and three interceptions, including one pick-six. This unit gave up 37.3 points per game in ’16 and has a new coordinator in Legi Suiaunoa, who has been a d-line coach at Montana (’11-’15) and Hawaii since 2011.


-- UMass finished ’16 with a 2-10 SU record and a 7-5 ATS mark. Although the Minutemen are an abysmal 8-28 SU since HC Mark Whipple took over for his second stint here in ’14, they have been decent for our purposes with a 19-17 ATS record.


-- UMass lost three one-possession games last season and picked up its wins at home vs. FIU (21-13) and vs. Wagner (34-10). The Minutemen faced three SEC opponents, going 3-0 ATS in losses at Florida (24-7), vs. Mississippi State (47-35) and at South Carolina (34-28). They bring back six starters on offense and nine on defense.


-- Junior QB Andrew Ford started nine of 12 games last year, throwing for 2,665 yards with a 26/14 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for a pair of scores. Ford has one of the nation’s best tight ends, former five-star recruit Adam Breneman who signed with Penn State out of high school and was prep teammates with Ford. In his first season with UMass, Breneman made 70 catches for 808 yards and eight TDs. Junior WR Andy Isabella is off an excellent sophomore year when he brought down 62 balls for 801 yards and seven TDs. UMass also returns leading rusher Marquis Young, who had 898 rushing yards and four TDs with a 4.6 YPC average in ’16.


-- When these teams met in the regular-season finale last season at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii captured a 46-40 win but the Minutemen took the money as a 7.5-point road underdog. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 57-point total. Trailing 40-26 with less than seven minutes remaining, UMass scored a pair of TDs in less than 90 seconds to pull even. However, Brown would find Kellan Ewaliko on a 56-yard scoring strike with 3:52 left to provide the winning points. For bettors who might’ve bought the hook to seven from 7.5 with a Hawaii wager, they were left furious (& push-less) when the extra-point kick was missed.


-- This is a non-televised game that will kick at 6:00 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- BYU will square off with FCS opponent Portland State in Provo on Saturday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. This game did not have a spread as of Tuesday, but some books will probably throw up a number by later Friday afternoon. Most games between FBS and FCS teams eventually get a line, but the books usually don’t release it until late Friday or early Saturday.


-- Georgia Tech took a big loss late last week when sophomore RB Dedrick Mills was kicked off the team for undisclosed reasons. Mills led the Yellow Jackets in rushing as a true freshman, gaining 771 yards and scoring 12 TDs with a 5.1 YPC average. They open at the new Mercedes Dome in Atlanta against Tennessee in Week 1.


-- Mark Richt named junior Malik Rosier as Miami’s starting QB on Aug. 22. Rosier threw for 272 yards in his only career start in ’15 when the Hurricanes won at Duke on the wild and controversial finish with laterals galore on the kick return as time expired.


-- Kentucky senior WR Dorian Baker is out for an indefinite period of time with an ankle injury, and there’s speculation he could done for the entire season. Baker has started 23 career games, producing 88 receptions for 1,015 yards and six TDs. He had a team-best 55 catches in ’15.


-- Rutgers has named ex-Louisville QB Kyle Bolin as its starter for the opener vs. Washington.


-- Florida landed a transfer on Monday when Texas offensive lineman Jean Delance decided to become a Gator. Delance was a four-star recruit for the Longhorns in the ’16 class. He’ll sit out this year per transfer rules and then have three years of eligibility for UF.

 

[CNOTES]

College football notebook: Darnold, Barkley head preseason All-American list
August 22, 2017

USC quarterback Sam Darnold and Penn State running back Saquon Barkley highlight the first preseason All-America team in the history of The Associated Press.


The two gave college football fans a thrill at the Rose Bowl last season, with Darnold passing for 453 yards and five touchdowns in the Trojans' 52-49 victory over the Nittany Lions. Barkley rushed for 194 and had three scores in the contest.


Darnold was voted to the first team by a panel of 51 voters. He slipped past Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville, who is the second-team quarterback on the teams released Tuesday.


LSU's Derrius Guice joins Darnold and Barkley in the backfield on the first team. Washington State guard Cody O'Connell and Utah punter Mitch Wishnowsky were selected to the first team after being All-Americans last year.


The first-team defense is led by two players who were postseason All-Americans in 2016 in Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver and Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. Florida State's secondary was well represented with cornerback Tarvarus McFadden and safety Derwin James, who missed most of last year with a knee injury.

--Miami, needing to replace departed junior Brad Kaaya, will go with redshirt junior Malik Rosier as the starting quarterback when the Hurricanes face Bethune-Cookman on Sept. 2, the school announced.


Rosier, who has one career start in a 2015 win over Duke, beat out redshirt sophomore Evan Shirreffs and two true freshmen. Rosier has 370 career passing yards.


--North Carolina State dismissed two football players and suspended three others after an investigation into an on-campus party last month.


Freshmen Antoine Thompson and Kevince Brown were booted off the squad, while freshmen Isaiah Moore, Erin Collins and Xavier Lyas were suspended for violation of football rules in addition to the school's student-athlete code of conduct.


The investigation began after a sexual assault charge was reported on July 22, one day following the party. The school said Tuesday's penalties were related to alcohol and marijuana being present at the party and were not associated with the sexual assault.


Three different sexual assaults were reported in the days following the party.

 

[CNOTES]

NC State dismisses 2 players, suspends 3
August 22, 2017


RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) North Carolina State coach Dave Doeren has dismissed two players from the team and suspended three others for violating athletics department and team rules pertaining to marijuana and alcohol.


The team announced the dismissals and suspensions Tuesday. The school issued a separate release saying the violations were discovered amid an ongoing investigation by university police into allegations of sexual assault during a campus party last month.


Athletic director Debbie Yow said the disciplinary actions taken against the five players were ''not regarding allegations of sexual assault.''


Freshmen Kevince Brown and Antoine Thompson were dismissed from the team, and Yow says they were no longer enrolled in school.


Three other freshmen - Erin Collins, Xavier Lyas and Isaiah Moore - were suspended, and Yow said they also faced ''other discipline.''


In a news conference Tuesday afternoon, university police chief Jack Moorman declined to talk about specifics in the ongoing criminal investigation. He did say the party took place at the residence of a football player, though he didn't specify which football player.


Moorman said ''under a dozen'' people attended what the school's release described as a ''gathering'' on July 21.


''There were five football players, there were our three sexual-assault complainants and then there were some other people who came in and out throughout the course of the day,'' Moorman said. ''But at this point, we have no evidence that any of the other individuals were involved in the drug and alcohol component.''


The school said the police investigation is ''nearly concluded'' and that university police have provided evidence to the Wake County district attorney's office. It also states the school is conducting a Title IX investigation into whether anyone violated the code of student conduct.


In a statement, Doeren said the five players were disciplined for ''poor decisions that don't align with the values of our program.''


''Although I've disciplined these players for violations of the Student Athlete Code of Conduct, I want to make it clear that I respect due process in the university and legal proceedings,'' Doeren said. ''Our players understand that I'm going be firm, but fair when it comes to discipline.''

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday’s six-pack


— In last 30 years, Nevada sportsbooks haven’t had a losing September in college football.


— New England Patriots are favored in every game from Week 1-Week 16; spreads for Week 17 games are not posted in the summer.


— Nick Saban is 31-2 in SEC games against the current 13 coaches at other SEC schools.


— A’s traded Rajai Davis to Boston, for an 18-year old OF prospect who is playing in the Dominican Summer League.


— Raiders’ LT Donald Penn ended his holdout. practiced on Wednesday.


— Mitchell Robinson, a 5-star prospect and top-10 recruit this past spring, is not expected to play college basketball after he left Western Kentucky in July. Good luck there; hopefully the kid goes overseas for a year and at least plays SOMEWHERE.


***************************


Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) Long time ago, the Dallas Cowboys had a very fast WR named Bob Hayes; this is in the 60’s, when the Cowboys first got really good. Bullet Bob Hayes was a sprinter— Dallas picked him in the 7th round of the 1964 Draft, with the 88th pick. Great pick— Hayes caught 371 passes in the NFL— 71 of them were touchdowns.


Detroit had the 89th pick that year; they took a lineman from Wichita State that you may have heard of, even though he didn’t play in the NFL.


Guy named Bill Parcells, whose 76th birthday was this week.


12) Baseball is terrific because odd things can happen at any time; LA’s Rich Hill had a perfect game thru 8 innings last night in Pittsburgh, but his 3B made an error in the 9th inning- the game remained scoreless thru nine innings. Hill stayed in the game, even though his blister issues usually mean he comes out before he gets to 100 pitches.


In the bottom of the 10th inning, Josh Harrison got the Pirates’ first hit, a walk-off homer that ended a great pitching duel. He hit Hill’s 99th pitch over the fence, ending a great game.


11) Doug Fister allowed a leadoff homer Tuesday night, then didn’t allow another hit in a 9-1 Red Sox win in Cleveland. It was Fister’s first complete game since 2014.


10) According to ESPN.com, underdogs covered 52.5% of college football games last year, the best year for underdogs in the last 12.


9) Anthony Rizzo played some 3B Tuesday night, the first lefty to do so in a major league game in 20 years.


8) Atlanta Falcons will leave a day earlier than usual on their five non-divisional road trips this season; they feel it helps with team bonding.


7) Louisville QB Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy LY; he tried hard to gain weight in the offseason, and is seven pounds heavier than last year, 30 pounds heavier than when he was a freshman.


6) Good news for NBA’s TV partners, with Cavaliers-Celtics playing on Opening Night. Kyrie Irving t-shirts were 75% off at the Cavaliers’ team store Wednesday.


5) Indians put Salazar/Miller on the DL Tuesday; they put Jason Kipnis on the DL yesterday. If you’re involved in fantasy baseball, you realize this: baseball players get hurt a lot.


Red Sox put Jackie Bradley Jr (thumb) on the DL.


4) Scott Blumstein won the World Series of Poker this summer; before the event, four of his friends gave him $60 each towards the $10,000 entry fee— those four friends will each come away with $40,750 before taxes, after Blumstein won the $8.15M first prize.


3) Since 1994, the Philadelphia Eagles have had 119 pass plays of 50+ yards, most in the NFL, two more than the Packers, three more than New Orleans.


Defensively, Atlanta has allowed 127 pass plays of 50+ yards, 20 more than any other team.


2) Since 2012, Temple (39-24) is the best team in the country against the spread, but Matt Rhule is the coach at Baylor now— we’ll see if Temple can keep up with their successful ways.


Over the last five years, UConn (18-40) is the worst team in America against the spread.


1) On August 15, a guy in Las Vegas bet $500 on BYU to win the national title, at 300-1, which would net him $150,000 if the Cougars won the national championship. There was another $200 bet on BYU back in June, at 500-1. Someone like BYU this season.