Thursday's Early Bowl Tips
December 26, 2017
**Virginia at Navy**
Military Bowl History
-- The Virginia Cavaliers (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) of the Atlantic Coast Conference meets the Navy Midshipmen (6-6 straight up, 5-5-2 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference in Annapolis, Md. for the Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman. It is a home game for the Middies, but can they pull out of their late-season slump to make playing in front of their home fans mean something?
-- The Midshipmen started out like a ball of fire, running through their schedule with a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS mark through the first five games, including a win at Florida Atlantic, the Boca Raton Bowl winner. But, that was one of only two wins against bowl teams this season, and they ended up 2-6 SU/3-3-2 ATS against the eight bowl teams on their schedule. Their slide started in mid-October in a narrow 30-27 loss at Memphis, and they never really pulled out of the nosedive. They lost at home as a 10-point underdog to UCF, 31-21, and they fell at Temple on Nov. 2 by a 34-26 count despite entering as a 6 1/2-point favorite. The Middies posted a spirited 43-40 win over SMU on Nov. 11, and they covered the following week at Notre Dame in a 24-17 loss as 21-point 'dogs. However, losses at Houston and against Army in their annual rivalry game sent them to three straight losses and two non-covers in a row to close out the regular season.
-- The Middies continued to run the football better than almost any team in the country. They ranked 42nd in the country in total yards (426.8 yards), while ranking second in the nation with 343.0 yards per game. Of course, they rarely passed, totaling just 83.8 yards per game to check in 129th, but no one really expects the vertical game from Navy. The Midshipmen ranked 60th in the country with 28.9 points per game. Struggles in the kicking game did not help this team, as they were 113th in FBS with just 58.8 percent of field goals converted.
-- On the defensive side of the ball, the Middies were, well...rather middling. They ranked 59th with 386.6 total yards per game allowed, 60th in passing yards allowed (221.7) and 64th against the rush (164.9). Their points allowed (27.9) was good for 74th in the land, or lower echelon, especially for a bowl participant.
-- If they're going to pass, it's QB Zach Abey at least attempting to get it done. He completed just 43.7 percent of his attempts (31-of-71) for 805 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. That looks like the Mouse Davis run-and-shoot compared to fellow military institution Army, but it really is not much in terms of today's college football. But they're still success in the triple-option, and Abey led the way with 1,325 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per tote. Malcolm Perry racked up 1,068 yards on the ground with nine touchdowns, and he gathered 8.8 yards per attempt to lead the charge. Chris High (125-520-2) and Anthony Gargiulo (71-383-3) are also very capable when they get their mitts on the pigskin.
-- Virginia wasn't terribly prolific on offense, but they have the pass game to get back into the game should they fall behind. They ranked just 100th in total offense (356.2 yards per game), but they totaled 257.3 yards per game through the air to rank 43rd in passing offense. Still, their points scored (23.8) ranked just 101st. In defense, UVA ranked 36th in the nation with just 358.7 yards per game allowed, but they were hard on the pass (16th in the country) while struggling at times against the run (82nd in the nation, 179.1 yards per game). A struggling run defense is not what you want when facing down against the triple-option of Navy, especially on their home turf with weeks of preparation.
-- The Cavaliers started out 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, including a surprising road win at Boise State back on Sept. 22 by a 42-23 score. Things started going sideways for the Hoos after a 41-10 beatdown from Boston College at Scott Stadium on Oct. 21, and that touched off a 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS slide to finish the regular season. Only a win against Georgia Tech on Nov. 4 saved bowl eligibility. The Cavs wrapped up their season with an uninspiring 10-0 loss against Virginia Tech on Thanksgiving weekend.
-- QB Kurt Benkert completed 59.6 percent of his pass attempts to finish with 3,062 yards, 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but Navy will not have to worry about the opponent's QB running. That's the job of RB Jordan Ellis, who led the team with 799 yards and six touchdowns, but just 3.9 yards per attempt. Olamide Zaccheaus provided relief with 6.7 yards per attempt in limited work. He was the team's leading receiver with 80 grabs for 833 yards and five touchdowns, which is rather unique seeing a running back leading a team in receptions and receiving yardage. When going vertical, WRs Andre Levrone (31-662-7) and Doni Dowling (48-632-5) are the best of the lot. TE Evan Butts (30-256-2) is also a good short-yardage option when looking to move the sticks.
-- The Midshipmen are a perfect 4-0 ATS over their past four bowl games, and they're 7-2-1 ATS across their past 10 following a non-cover. They certainly had that in their straight-up loss to Army last time out. The Middies are also an impressive 16-6-1 ATS in their past 23 at home, and, for what it's worth, they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven appearances on a Thursday.
-- For the Hoos, the 'under' is 13-6-1 across their past 20 games on the road, but the 'over' has connected in four straight bowl appearances and five of their past seven on field turf.
-- For the Middlies, the 'under'is 6-2 in their past eight non-conference tilts, and five of the past seven overall. The 'over' has hit in 11 of their past 15 home games, however, while going 12-5-1 in their past 18 tries against ACC foes.
-- Virginia is making its first bowl appearance since the Chick-Fil-A Bowl on Dec. 31, 2011, and they haven't won a bowl game since taking care of Minnesota in the Music City Bowl back on Dec. 30, 2005.
-- Navy is making a bowl appearance for the sixth consecutive season, losing 48-45 in the Armed Forces Bowl last Dec. 23. The last time they played in the Military Bowl at home, they treated Pittsburgh rather rudely with a 44-28 win on Dec. 28, 2015. The Middies are 3-1 SU over their past four bowl appearances, and they 1-2 SU in three bowl games vs. ACC opponents.
-- These teams last met Sept. 10, 1994, with Virginia spanking Navy by a 47-3 score.
-- Kickoff is slated for 1:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State**
Camping World Bowl History
-- In the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fla. it will be the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) of the ACC facing off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference.
-- Virginia Tech fire out of the box with a 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS start through the first eight outings, with just one loss to Clemson by a 31-17 score on Sept. 30 at home. Things went south in Miami, falling 28-10 on Nov. 4, and they followed that up with a 28-22 setback at Georgia Tech, a non-bowl team. The Hokies had a three-game non-cover streak going into the regular season finale against rival Virginia, but they posted a 10-0 win as a touchdown favorite in Charlottesville to end on a high note.
-- The Hokies were balanced, but marginal across the board on offense. They ranked 60th in the nation in total yards (404.1), 61st in passing yards (236.9), 61st in rushing yards (167.2) and 63rd in scoring offense (28.8 PPG). They were able to grind out nine victories because of their defense. Va. Tech ranked 11th in total yards allowed (305.2), 24th agaisnt the pass (186.4) and 15th against the run (118.8). The Hokies were fifth in the nation in points allowed, too, giving up just 13.5 points per game, and somehow they held opponents to just 41.7 percent on field goal tries, ranking No. 1 in the land.
-- QB Josh Jackson showed some glimpses of brilliance, and he is a dual-threat option for the Hokies. He completed 60.3 percent of his attempts for 2,743 yards, 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions while running for 274 yards and four scores, which led the team. RBs Travon McMillian (104-439-2) and Deshawn McClease (90-406-3) were very effective as a one-two early punch, while Coleman Fox averaged 5.7 yards per game in a reserve role. WR Cam Phillips posted 71 receptions for 964 yards and seven touchdowns to lead the way, while WR Sean Savoy is a nice secondary option (39-454-4).
-- Oklahoma State opened with a 3-0 SU start with at least 44 points per game, while also going 3-0 ATS. Expectations were sky high, and there were even murmurs this could be a team to challenge for a playoff spot, QB Mason Rudolph could be a Heisman Trophy candidate, etc. Well, a 44-31 loss at home against Texas Christian changed all of that talk, although it also spurred them on to four straight wins, including a thrilling 13-10 overtime win in Texas, and a 50-39 road win at West Virginia on Oct. 28. That had the Cowboys riding high into their Bedlam rivalry game on Nov. 4. Playoff talk was back on, Heisman talk was back on...and then, they lost 62-52 to the rival Oklahoma Sooners. The Cowboys still had a successful season with nine victories, and a 10-win season will help with recruits in a state which does house the current Heisman winner and one of the four playoff teams.
-- The Cowboys ranked No. 2 in the country in total yards per game (578.9), while leading the nation in passing yards per game (392.3). They were adequate in rushing yards, going for 186.6 yards per outing to rank 42nd, which going for 46.2 points per game to check in second in the country. Defense is an issue, ranking 75th in yards allowed (400.2), while going a dismal 119th in the country with 268.5 yards per game allowed. They were able to shut down the run, but passing is the strong suit for the Hokies.
-- Rudolph put up video game-like numbers, completing 65.0 percent of his pass attempts for 4,553 yards, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The Cowboys had two 1,000-yard receivers with WRs James Washington (69-1,423-12) and Marcell Ateman (54-1,049-8) combining for 20 receiving scores. Don't sleep on WRs Jalen McCleskey (49-633-5) and Dillon Stoner (40-541-5), either. The Cowboys like to use plenty of four- and five-receiver sets to spread the field and make things a nightmare for opposing pass defenses. RB Justice Hill also gouged opposing defenses for 1,347 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, while Rudolph ran it in for 10 more scores. This team can score early and often.
-- Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS over the past seven non-confernce games, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games in the month of December. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up win, too. The 'under' is 4-1 in their past five overall, while going 6-0 in their past six against teams with a winning overall record, and 3-1-1 in the past five agaisnt non-conference teams.
-- For Oklahoma State, they're 5-0 ATS in their past five against non-conference teams, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven neutral-site tilts. OK State is 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record, however. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five overall for the Cowboys, while going 4-1 in the past five against teams with a winning overall mark. The over is also 20-7 in their past 27 games on a fieldturf surface.
-- Va. Tech rolls in on a three-game bowl winning streak, topping Arkansas by a 35-24 count in last season's Belk Bowl in Charlotte. The Hokies have scored at least 33 points in each of the past three bowl wins, too. The last time they faced a Big 12 squad in a bowl game, they were on the short end of a 24-21 score against Kansas in the 2008 Orange Bowl.
-- Oklahoma State clubbed Colorado in the Alamo Bowl last season by a 38-8 score, and they are an impressive 5-2 over the past seven bowl appearances. This is actually their first meeting with an ACC member in a bowl game.
-- This will be the first-ever meeting between these two institutions.
-- Kickoff is slated for 5:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
