Primetime Cheat Sheet
June 22, 2016
The NFL schedule showcases 33 games a season in which teams play on either Monday or Thursday nights, messing with normal routines when these squads are accustomed to playing on Sundays. There are advantages to go against these clubs playing on fewer rest with the case of Mondays, while extra rest for teams taking the field on Thursdays are actually good bets the following week. Let’s take a look at several angles to attack in preparation for the 2016 campaign.
Looking back at the last two seasons of data for Monday and Thursday contests, there were a few things that stuck out. Home favorites on Monday night were horrible, posting a 5-17-1 ATS record since 2014, including a 2-11-1 ATS mark this past season. These chalky home teams actually compiled a 7-7 SU mark, but all three double-digit favorites failed to cover (Week 4 – Seattle vs. Detroit, Week 7 – Arizona vs. Baltimore, Week 10 – Cincinnati vs. Houston). Only three teams were listed as home underdogs on Monday night in 2015, with the Falcons and 49ers winning outright in Week 1, while the Dolphins fell to the Giants in Week 14.
There wasn’t much of an advantage backing teams off a Monday night home game in 2015, as these squads went 8-8 SU and 8-7-1 ATS last season. However, a profitable angle the last two seasons involving Monday night home teams was going against them the following week if they lost on Monday. Teams in this situation have posted a 6-12 SU and 8-10 ATS record since 2014, although this trend went 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS last season.
Flipping to road teams who were off a Monday night game in 2015, these squads put together a barely profitable 9-8 SU/ATS mark. However, if you backed home underdogs that just played a Monday night road contest, these teams covered in four of five opportunities, including outright victories by Pittsburgh (Week 6 vs. Arizona), Indianapolis (Week 9 vs. Denver), and Houston (Week 11 vs. N.Y. Jets). This season, there are three early opportunities for this situation with Los Angeles (Week 2 vs. Seattle), Philadelphia (Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh), and Atlanta (Week 4 vs. Carolina) all falling into this category.
In 2014, road teams that won on Monday night put together an amazing 0-10 ATS record the following game, while only one of those teams (Philadelphia) actually won straight-up. That number improved last season as these away squads followed up a Monday victory with a 4-4 SU and 6-2 ATS mark, although only one of those teams pulled off back-to-back road wins (Chicago at San Diego on Monday, followed by an upset of St. Louis).
From a totals perspective, the ‘under’ hit in 12 of 17 Monday night games in 2015, including a 4-1 mark to the ‘under’ in games with totals of 49 or higher. The most common side-total combination that cashed last season on Mondays was the Underdog-Under duo, which came through 10 times.
Shifting gears to Thursday, home teams that played on this day of the week compiled a 10-8 SU and 7-10-1 ATS record. That includes New England holding off Pittsburgh in the season opener, 28-21 as both teams were obviously rested, while Detroit and Dallas split their games in Thanksgiving Day action.
One stat that sticks out is how these home squads fared the next week in the role of a road underdog, posting an impressive 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS record. Among those teams that won as a highway ‘dog include the Giants (Week 4 at Buffalo), Saints (Week 7 at Indianapolis), and Rams (Week 16 at Seattle), all clubs that were receiving at least 5 ½ points.
Listed below are the seven potential situations in 2016 for road underdogs coming off a Thursday night home game.
2016 QUALIFIERS
Week Matchup
5 Cincinnati at Dallas
6 San Francisco at Buffalo
7 San Diego at Atlanta
8 Green Bay at Atlanta
11 Tampa Bay at Kansas City
13 Carolina at Seattle
14 Minnesota at Jacksonville
This season, eight teams will play on Monday night twice (Eagles, Jets, Redskins, Bears, Panthers, Giants, Vikings, and Texans), while no team will be showcased on Monday more than two times. Four squads will appear twice in Thursday action (Giants, Rams, Vikings, and Cowboys), but only New York and Los Angeles will participate in a pair of Thursday night games as Minnesota and Dallas each play one Thursday night contest and take the field on Thanksgiving afternoon.
Listed below is each team’s record in primetime action since 2006 and their record in parentheses from last season. The Cardinals and Broncos each were undefeated under the lights in 2015 as Arizona will appear on primetime in four games this season, including three at University of Phoenix Stadium.
NFC PRIMETIME RECORDS (2006-2015)
Team Games Record (2015) SNF (2015) MNF (2015) TNF (2015)
Arizona 21 11-10 (5-0) 5-2 (3-0) 3-5 (1-0) 3-3 (1-0)
Atlanta 25 10-15 (1-1) 3-2 3-9 4-4
Carolina 20 8-12 (2-0) 2-4 (1-0) 5-3 (1-0) 1-5
Chicago 43 24-19 (1-0) 8-11 13-4 (1-0) 3-4
Dallas 52 29-23 (2-2) 18-16 (1-2) 5-5 (1-0) 6-2
Detroit 12 3-9 (1-3) 0-4 (0-1) 3-4 (1-1) 0-1 (0-1)
Green Bay 40 22-18 (3-3) 12-8 (1-2) 6-8 (1-0) 4-2 (1-1)
Minnesota 28 9-19 (2-2) 4-7 (2-0) 4-8 (0-1) 1-4 (0-1)
New Orleans 38 26-12 (2-1) 11-4 (1-0) 12-5 (0-1) 3-3 (1-0)
New York 49 22-27 (3-3) 11-17 (1-2) 7-7 (1-1) 4-3 (1-0)
Philadelphia 47 24-23 (2-3) 13-13 (1-2) 9-6 (1-1) 2-4
St. Louis 11 2-9 (1-0) 0-1 0-5 2-3 (1-0)
San Francisco 32 18-14 (1-2) 3-7 (0-1) 10-3 (1-0) 5-4 (0-1)
Seattle 24 19-7 (2-2) 7-5 (0-2) 9-0 (1-0) 3-2 (1-0)
Tampa Bay 10 4-6 (0-1) 1-0 2-2 1-4 (0-1)
Washington 31 9-22 (0-2) 4-8 3-10 (0-1) 2-4 (0-1)
AFC PRIMETIME RECORDS (2006-2015)
Team Games Record (2015) SNF (2015) MNF (2015) TNF (2015)
Baltimore 34 19-15 (2-1) 7-5 7-8 (1-1) 5-2 (1-0)
Buffalo 10 2-8 (1-1) 0-1 0-4 (0-1) 2-3 (1-0)
Cincinnati 24 6-18 (1-3) 0-6 (0-1) 3-4 (0-2) 2-5 (1-0)
Cleveland 14 5-9 (0-2) 0-1 2-3 (0-1) 3-5 (0-1)
Denver 42 26-16 (5-0) 13-5 (3-0) 7-8 (1-0) 6-3 (1-0)
Houston 20 6-14 (1-2) 1-4 (0-1) 4-5 (1-0) 1-5 (0-1)
Indianapolis 44 28-16 (1-4) 14-10 (0-2) 5-6 (0-2) 9-0 (1-0)
Jacksonville 15 6-9 (1-0) 0-1 3-4 3-4 (1-0)
Kansas City 15 6-9 (0-1) 0-4 3-2 3-3 (0-1)
Miami 19 5-14 (0-2) 0-2 2-9 (0-1) 3-3 (0-1)
New England 42 30-12 (5-1) 15-8 (3-1) 11-3 (1-0) 4-1 (1-0)
New York 26 11-15 (1-1) 3-3 5-8 (1-0) 3-4 (0-1)
Oakland 14 5-10 (1-0) 0-1 1-6 4-3 (1-0)
Pittsburgh 47 29-18 (1-2) 15-11 (1-1) 9-3 5-4 (0-1)
San Diego 39 22-17 (0-3) 8-7 (0-2) 8-6 6-4 (0-1)
Tennessee 16 7-9 (0-1) 1-2 5-2 1-5 (0-1)