Thursday's Elite Eight
February 9, 2017
A look at the day's top eight college basketball matchups, ranked in order of most attractive.
THURSDAY, FEB. 9
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
Oregon
Overall: 21-3 SU, 12-9 ATS
Pac-12: 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS
Totals: 9-14 O/U
UCLA
Overall: 21-3 SU, 13-11 ATS
Pac-12: 8-3 SU, 3-8 ATS
Totals: 13-9-2 O/U
Oregon at UCLA, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Ducks handed the Bruins their first loss of the season back on Dec. 29 in a game that's right there with Kentucky's loss to UCLA and win over North Carolina as your current college hoops Game of the Year finalists. Dillon Brooks drained a 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds left to rescue an 89-87 win that extended what remains the nation's second-longest home winning streak, but now they're looking for a series sweep of both L.A. schools as they begin the Pac-12's most challenging road trek this season. Oregon put together perhaps its most impressive win of the season last Saturday, blasting Arizona 85-58 to move into pole position for the regular-season title. UCLA averaged 101 points in last week's two wins in Washington, snapping a two-game losing streak that saw them slip behind the Ducks and Wildcats in the conference standings. The Bruins shot 53 percent in the loss in Eugene, knocking down 11 3-pointers, so they'll be confident they can succeed against the bigger, more athletic visitors. UCLA lost its last home game to Arizona 96-85 on Jan. 21, snapping an 11-game winning streak at Pauley Pavilion and further raising concerns over an inability to defend that could derail a promising season. Although their pace has a lot to do with it, the Bruins have given up 80 or more points in 10 of their 24 contests. Brooks comes in surging, shooting 16-for-24 (7-for-12 from 3) over his last two games. Freshman T.J. Leaf is UCLA's top rebounder (8.9) and leads six Bruins who score in double-figures, while lottery lock Lonzo Ball is averaging 15.1 points, 5.8 boards and 7.9 assists. The 107 points they dropped onthe Huskies marked the eighth time they've surpassed the century mark. This game's total has been set at 163, basically identical to where it resided in the first meeting.
Oregon 86
UCLA 85
North Carolina
Overall: 21-4 SU, 11-12 ATS
ACC: 9-2 SU, 4-6-1 ATS
Totals: 9-14-1 O/U
Duke
Overall: 18-5 SU, 9-13 ATS
ACC: 6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS
Totals: 11-11 O/U
North Carolina at Duke, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Although the Tar Heels still lead college basketball's biggest rivalry by 26 wins, the last 96 meetings dating back 40 years have been split right down the middle, 7,437-7,437. Both have won 48 times. They'll play again on March 4 to end the regular season, but for now, one of these Tobacco Road neighbors will have bragging rights. Although North Carolina leads the ACC, Duke is riding a wave of momentum as Luke Kennard has stepped up, its talented freshman class is performing better and Mike Krzyzewski has returned from a seven-game absence after back surgery. The Blue Devils went 4-3 without Coach K and got him back for Saturday's 76-64 victory at Pitt, so they remained afloat and could within two games of the ACC lead by holding serve at Cameron. UNC has obliterated teams on the boards, so even though both teams will rely heavily on shots from the perimeter, the matchup between centers Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson may wind up being the deciding factor. Although Roy Williams has backup center Tony Bradley back, it's imperative that his senior big man, Meeks, stays out of foul trouble here. The lone injury-related question mark for this rivalry game centers around top Tar Heels reserve Theo Pinson, who has missed three games with an ankle injury. Grayson Allen will go up against a familiar face in UNC point guard Joel Berry, a former AAU teammate who he's battled with often over the years, so we'll see if that makes it easier for him to keep his emotions in check. The under is 3-0-1 in North Carolina's last four games. With assistant Jeff Capel at the helm, the over went 6-1 in Duke's games, but Kryzewski's return delivered the team's second under in its last 10 games.
North Carolina 84
Duke 82
Purdue
Overall: 19-5 SU, 13-8 ATS
Big Ten: 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS
Totals: 13-7-1 O/U
Indiana
Overall: 15-9 SU, 11-10 ATS
Big Ten: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Totals: 11-10 O/U
Purdue at Indiana, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This rivarly game is always big, and since the Hoosiers are desperate to get back to .500 in league play, it should be filled with emotion. Will it be filled with James Blackmon? That's the big question you'll have to get an answer to prior to tip-off since the Hoosiers' leading scorer (17.6) is hoping to return from a foot injury that has cost him the past three games, two of which have been IU losses. Since they've already lost top athlete OG Anunoby to a torn ACL and never got projected starting forward Colin Hartman in the mix, Indiana is already short-handed and would be at a major disadvantage against the Big Ten's deepest group if Blackmon can't go. The Boilermakers are looking to become the third team in the league to reach 20 wins and leads the conference with an 82.2 scoring average, just ahead of Indiana (82.0). In league play, Purdue is also tops at 79.6, while IU ranks third (76.4). The Hoosiers rank last in the Big Ten in turnover margin, just behind the Boilers, which is partially due to the faster pace both employ but also indicative of sloppy play. Purdue is 3-3 in true road games and know a raucous environment awaits at Assembly Hall, so a strong start will be key to keeping the crowd out of the game. Coming off last Saturday's one-point win at Maryland in a game they chased down late, the Boilermakers will be confident they have enough to win a close game on the road. Caleb Swanigan remains the frontrunner for Big Ten Player of the Year, averaging 19.1 points and 12.8 rebounds while coming in 27-for-54 from beyond the arc. Purdue owns one of the nation's most effective 3-point attacks thanks to six players having made at least 27. Five of those are shooting over 42 percent.
Purdue 83
Indiana 79
Wisconsin
Overall: 20-3 SU, 10-9 ATS
Big Ten: 9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U
Nebraska
Overall: 10-13 SU, 10-11 ATS
Big Ten: 4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS
Totals: 8-11-1 O/U
Wisconsin at Nebraska, 9 p.m. ET, BTN
The Huskers enter this one as the only Big Ten team with a losing overall record as well as a negative point differential. Despite this, the Badgers have to be on upset alert considering Nebraska has defeated Purdue and Maryland, picking off the two teams currently tied for second in the league. Wisconsin undoubtedly appreciates the favor, but wants no part of the trap as its 17th win in 18 games. Nebraska actually won the most recent meeting, pulling a second-round upset in last March's Big Ten Tournament, so it won't come out intimidated. Its realistic hopes for an upset hinge on getting back top defensive forward Ed Morrow, who has missed seven straight with a foot injury, in addition to guard Glynn Watson, who hurt his groin over the weekend. Both practiced some Wednesday and are likely game-time decisions. The Badgers have been led by forward Ethan Happ's brilliance at both ends of late. He's averaging 21.6 points over the last five games, shooting 64 percent while also emerging as dominant factor on defense. The Badgers are 4-2 in true road games this season, so they could be vulnerable if the Huskers are healthy enough to threaten. Despite amassing a Big Ten-best 9-1 start, they've averaged just 61.3 points over the last three games in wins over Rutgers, Illinois and Indiana, shooting 14-for-65 (21 pct) from 3-point range. All three have gone under. The under is 4-1-1 in Nebraska's last six.
Wisconsin 74
Nebraska 66
Old Dominion
Overall: 14-9 SU, 9-13 ATS
C-USA: 7-4 SU, 3-8 ATS
Totals: 10-12 O/U
Middle Tennessee
Overall: 20-4 SU, 15-8 ATS
C-USA: 10-1 SU, 7-4 ATS
Totals: 7-15-1 O/U
Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee, 8 p.m. ET, beIN Sports
The Blue Raiders saw their perfect Conference USA record spoiled in El Paso over the weekend, and while they're still two games up on Louisiana Tech and unlikely to lose their grip on the top spot, they're looking to run through a conference that isn't getting much respect as a whole, which means an at-large bid is probably unlikely. Old Dominion is perennially one of the better teams in the league and has won 25 or more games in consecutive seasons, but this year's group has slipped too, coming off a 65-61 upset loss at home against Florida Atlantic. The Monarchs are embarking on the toughest road trip possible in C-USA this season, playing in Murfreesboro and at Birmingham in a 72-hour span. Since joining C-USA, ODU is 0-9 vs. MTSU and UAB. Their NCAA Tournament dreams were ended by the Blue Raiders last season, so this will be personal for the holdovers from last year's inagural Vegas 16 champs, who would've rather been playing in the Big Dance. Old Dominion's challenging week will likely limit any potential hangover from blowing a 14-point lead to FAU by missing 12 of 24 free-throws, a consistent Achilles' heel for its group over the past few years. Middle Tennessee suffered its own collapse in being outscored 41-27 in the second half to fall at UTEP, shooting 5-for-10 from the line. The charity stripe has been an issue for its team too. While JaCorey Williams scored 24 points and grabbed 10 boards in Saturday night's loss, fellow standouts Reggie Upshaw and Giddy Potts combined for 9 points on 3-for-14 shooting. Upshaw, arguably C-USA's top forward due to his explosiveness at both end, fouled out and grabbed just one rebound against the Miners. Both teams defend and prefer a slower tempo, so look for a grinder here.
Middle Tennessee 65
Old Dominion 59
Washington
Overall: 9-14 SU, 7-14-1 ATS
Pac-12: 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS
Totals: 10-12 O/U
Colorado
Overall: 13-11 SU, 7-15 ATS
Pac-12: 3-8 SU, 3-7-1 ATS
Totals: 10-12 O/U
Washington at Colorado, 10 p.m. ET, FS1
If this rematch is as good as the first meeting, this game will be high on entertainment value. The Buffs are in the midst of making one last push with five of their final seven regular-season games at home, but saw their momentum stunted by Cal on Sunday in a 77-66 loss that ended a three-game win streak and fumbled away a chance to pick off another resume-booster. At this point, wins over Xavier and Oregon will only go so far barring a strong run into March. Washington is just trying to put an end to a season-long five-game losing streak as rock bottom was reached in a 107-66 home loss to UCLA where the team appeared to quit. The Huskies will now try and recover against the last team they defeated, since they managed to beat the Buffs in OT at Hec Ed on Jan.18 thanks to Markelle Fultz fueling a second-half rally from a 17-point deficit. Fultz scored a season-high 37 points in the 85-83 win, getting to the basket whenever he wanted. David Crisp hit the go-ahead 3-pointer late in the extra session and must lead the charge in Boulder considering Fultz's supporting cast has disappointed most of the season. Seniors Derrick White and Xavier Johnson combined for 47 points and have been very productive of late, so they should be up for the challenge of trading baskets with Fultz since they know every NBA front office will be examining film of the final games of the star freshman's college career over the next few months. Johnson and fellow senior forward Wesley Gordon were suspended for violating team rules against Cal and haven't been cleared to retun as of Wednesday night. Despite the presence of the NBA Draft's likely No. 1 pick, the Huskies rank last in Pac-12 play in field goal percentage and next-to-last in scoring margin, so it looms as a must-win for Colorado. The under has prevailed in nine of the last 12 Washington games, largely due to how high the totals have been set. The Buffs are 0-2 in games that have been set at 160 or higher, splitting the total 1-1. The over has hit in five of their last six games.
Colorado 84
Washington 79
SMU
Overall: 20-4 SU, 13-4 ATS
American: 10-1 SU, 8-1-2 ATS
Totals: 9-10 O/U
Temple
Overall: 13-11 SU, 11-9 ATS
American: 4-7 SU, 3-6-2 ATS
Totals: 16-6 O/U
SMU at Temple, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Owls are looking for their first three-game winning streak since November, when powers Florida State and West Virginia were among their victims and the world looked to be there for the taking following a 6-2 start. Temple has gone 7-9 since, foiled by depth issues and inconsistency since sophomore Shizz Alston and freshmen Alani Moore and Quinton Rose play such key roles. This will be round two between Shizz and SMU's Shake Milton this season, pitting the catalysts with the best names in the American up against one another. Milton is up 1-0, leading the Mustangs to a 79-65 win on Jan. 4 with 18 points, six rebounds and seven assists. He'll be looking to bounce back from an awful debut in Philly where he shot just 3-for-13 from the field in contributing to an 89-80 loss in last season's only meeting. Senior wing Sterling Brown scored 19 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the loss and is the reigning American Player of the Week. He's fouled out against Temple in each of the last two games against them, so staying on the floor will be critical here since the Ponies don't pack much depth themselves. They've been playing exceptional ball of late, notching eight of their last nine wins by double-digits and losing only at Cincinnati by a bucket in a game that they controlled until late. Forwards Ben Moore and Semi Ojeleye combined for 37 points and 16 boards on 12-for-21 shooting in the January win and should be tough to contain. Temple senior wing Daniel Dingle tied his career-high with 22 points in Sunday's win over South Florida, while sophomore center Ernest Aflakpui scored a career-high 14, but it's worth noting that the teams the Owls defeated are a combined 1-23 in league play. Temple is 12-1 when scoring at least 70 points and 1-10 when not reaching that total. SMU hasn't surrendered that many points in a game since a Nov. 30 loss to Boise State, a streak of 17 games. The Mustangs give up an average of just 58.6 points, including just 57.3 in AAC games. Nine of the Owls' last 10 games have gone over the posted total.
SMU 69
Temple 61
Gonzaga
Overall: 24-0 SU, 16-4-1 ATS
West Coast: 12-0 SU, 9-2-1 ATS
Totals: 10-11 O/U
Loyola Marymount
Overall: 11-12 SU, 10-10 ATS
West Coast: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS
Totals: 9-10-1 O/U
Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount, 10 p.m. ET, ROOT
The Bulldogs are going to face their biggest obstacle to an undefeated regular season on Saturday, so there's always a chance they're caught looking ahead. Are the Lions talented enough to take advantage? Their most impressive results have been an upset of Colorado State, a 65-62 loss to UConn, an 80-79 setback against Boise State and on Dec. 22, an 80-77 defeat at the hands of UT-Arlington. LMU's chances of an upset hinge on top scorer Brandon Brown (15.4 ppg) having a big night against one of the after struggling the first time. They were able to hang around for roughly a half in the first meeting before running out of gas and leaving Spokane with a 93-55 loss, done in by poor shooting and 22 turnovers. Buay Tuach scored 19 points for Loyola Marymount, shooting 7-for-10, but his teammates were a combined 13-for-48 (27 percent). 6-foot-11 Stefan Jovanovic and 7-footer Magnus Markusson competed with Gonzaga's bigs but largely struggled, leading to a 50-24 deficit in points in the paint. LMU has lost 15 straight against the Zags, last winning in 2010. Prior to last year's trip to Saint Mary's, Gonzaga blew out San Diego 88-52. Gonzaga has won its 12 WCC games by an average of 27.1 points.
Gonzaga 79
Loyola Marymount 57
