Cnotes 2016 KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS - News - Picks

[CNOTES]

2016 KENTUCKY DERBY ODDS

Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds

1 Trojan Nation Aaron T. Gryder Patrick Gallagher 50/1

2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis S. Quinonez Donnie K. Von Hemel 20/1

3 Creator Ricardo Santana, Jr. Steven M. Asmussen 10/1

4 Mo Tom Corey J. Lanerie Thomas M. Amoss 20/1

5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steven M. Asmussen 10/1

6 My Man Sam Julien R. Leparoux Chad C. Brown 20/1

7 Oscar Nominated Robby Albarado Michael J. Maker 50/1

8 Lani Yutaka Take Mikio Matsunaga 30/1

9 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 15/1

10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett 20/1

11 Exaggerator Kent J. Desormeaux J. Keith Desormeaux 8/1

12 Tom's Ready Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. Dallas Stewart 30/1

13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug F. O'Neill 3/1

14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran P. McLaughlin 10/1

15 Outwork John R. Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15/1

16 Shagaf Irad Ortiz, Jr. Chad Brown 20/1

17 Mor Spirit Gary L. Stevens Bob Baffert 12/1

18 Majesto Javier Castellano Gustavo Delgado 30/1

19 Brody's Cause Luis Saez Dale L. Romans 12/1

20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Clifford W. Sise, Jr. 15/1


Morning Line Odds are created by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia - Subject to Change

 

[CNOTES]

Nyquist draws No. 13, made Derby chalk
May 4, 2016

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Nyquist has been made the early 3-1 favorite for the 142nd Kentucky Derby, with Exaggerator the second choice in the full field of 20 horses.

Trained by Doug O'Neill, Nyquist is undefeated in seven career races. The colt drew the No. 13 post on Wednesday. Four horses have won from there since 1900, most recently Smarty Jones in 2004. O'Neill, jockey Mario Gutierrez and owner Paul Reddam teamed to win the race in 2012 with I'll Have Another.

Nyquist broke from the No. 13 post when he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year at Keeneland.

''The post draw didn't matter to us a ton but we're happy being more toward the outside for sure,'' O'Neill said. ''The whole team is pumped up. We're just very optimistic for a big day.''

Exaggerator drew the No. 11 post and is 8-1 for the 1 1/4-mile race Saturday at Churchill Downs. He's trained by Keith Desormeaux, whose Hall of Fame brother, Kent, will be aboard.

Creator, Gun Runner and Mohaymen are the co-third choices at 10-1. Creator will break from the No. 3 post with Gun Runner in the No. 5. Both are trained by Steve Asmussen. Mohaymen drew the No. 14 post.

Mor Spirit, trained by four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, will break from the No. 17 post. No horse has won from there in the race's previous 141 editions. Mor Spirit is 12-1, the same odds as Brody's Cause, who drew No. 19.

Last year, Baffert won with American Pharoah, who swept the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes to win the sport's first Triple Crown in 37 years.

''The last time I had the 17 post was Point Given with Gary Stevens (fifth in 2001), and here we are again,'' Baffert said. ''I wanted the 16. All the speed is on the outside, so there will probably be two different races going on.''

The dreaded No. 1 spot that pins a horse to the inside rail coming out of the gate went to Trojan Nation, who has yet to win a race. Along with Trojan Nation, the other horse listed at 50-1 is Oscar Nominated, whose owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey put up a supplemental fee of $200,000 to get him into the race.

That fee boosted the Derby purse to $2,391,600 if 20 horses start. The winner would receive $1,631,000.

Japan's entry, Lani, is listed at 30-1. The horse is known to be unpredictable in starting gate, and he will break from the No. 8 post.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part I
April 30, 2016


The first of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from California. And what better way to start our coverage than with the undefeated, juvenile Eclipse champion, Nyquist.

From the same connections that brought you 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another – owner Reddam Racing, trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez – Nyquist figures to go to post as the favorite in what figures to be one of the most wide-open runnings of the event in recent history. It’s deserving since he is arguably THE most accomplished runner to ever enter the race.

Easily the highest earning entrant, with over $3.3 million already banked in his seven race career, Nyquist was a perfect five for five in his two-year-old season, closing out the year with three consecutive G1 tallies in the Del Mar Futurity, the FrontRunner at Santa Anita and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.

O’Neill announced rather early on that Nyquist would have just two preps for the Derby and brought the son of red hot freshman sire Uncle Mo back in mid-February at his Santa Anita headquarters in the G2 San Vicente going seven furlongs. Breaking from the rail against just four others, Gutierrez put Nyquist in the game early, and after briefly battling on the front end, assumed the lead, eventually winning by 1 ½ lengths while stopping the clock in 1:20 3/5.

Gulfstream and the G1 Florida Derby would be his final stop on the road to Louisville as Nyquist would collect a $1 million bonus with a win in South Florida’s premiere Derby prep as a graduate of a Fasig-Tipton sale in Florida. He’d take on the leader in the east, the undefeated Mohaymen, in a historic prep battle. It didn’t live up to the hype.

Aggressive once again, Nyquist was send right to the top and while Mohaymen took a short-lived run at him on the far turn, Nyquist easily vanquished his rival before drifting in and out through the stretch to win by 3 ¼ lengths.

Nyquist was sent straight to Kentucky after the Florida Derby but went to Keeneland as opposed to the home of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs. He had a reported high white blood cell count upon his arrival in Lexington and missed a couple of days of training but worked three times at Keeneland, including a mile in 1:41 on Friday, April 29th, in his final major move.

Having already made nine starts, Exaggerator is one of the most seasoned runners on the Derby Trail. A family affair, as trainer Keith Desormeaux will give his three time Derby winning, Hall of Famer brother, jockey Kent, a leg up. Kent won the 1998 Derby aboard Real Quiet, in 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and in 2008 with Big Brown.

As for Exaggerator, the son of 2007/2008 Horse of the Year Curlin has won half of his six juvenile starts, including the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Delta Jackpot and finished second in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity and fourth in the B.C. Juvenile.

He returned from a near three month break in the San Vicente this season when he chased Nyquist for the final half mile before he tired ever so slightly in the stretch to finish second. Nearly a month later, Exaggerator was bothered a bit at the start of the G2 San Felipe, made a strong move midway through the 1 1/16 mile event then leveled off in the stretch to be third.

In his most recent start, the G1 Santa Anita Derby, the Desormeaux brothers decided they would take Exaggerator back and make one big run as opposed to the middle move he had grown accustomed to making. Already accomplished on a wet track, having won at Delta and finished second at Keeneland in the mud, his connections were more than happy to run over a sloppy track out west in the S.A. Derby.

As was the plan, Kent took Exaggerator back to last, got a blistering :45 1/5 half-mile time to run into and exploded as the field approached the far turn, going from fourth to first in a matter of seconds before making the lead midway on the far turn on his way to an easy 6 ¼ length score. It could have very well been the most impressive and dominant prep effort of the season.

He’s done the bulk of his training leading up to the Derby in California but did record his final work before the race, a five furlong drill in 1:02 3/5, at Churchill on Saturday, April 30th for his conglomerate of owners, led by Big Chief Racing.

While Nyquist is the richest and Exaggerator was the most dominant of late, Mor Spirit sports the most successful connections when it comes to the Run for the Roses as his trainer/jockey combo of Hall of Famers Bob Baffert and Gary Stevens have won seven of these between them. Stevens was victorious aboard the filly Winning Colors in 1988, Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Silver Charm, who turned out to be Baffert’s first, in 1997. Along with Silver Charm, Baffert also won it in 1998 with Real Quiet, in 2002 with War Emblem and last year with eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh.

Owned by Michael Petersen, Mor Spirit, by Eskendereya, is one of the more consistent runners in the field, having finished first or second in all seven of his starts. He closed out a four race juvenile campaign with a second place finish in the slop in the G2 KJC at Churchill and a win in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity.

After a short seven week rest, Mor Spirit returned in the G3 Robert Lewis at the same 1 1/16 mile distance of his prior two starts and put in a similar march from mid-pack to win by 1 ½ lengths as the 3/5 favorite. He put in a similar effort in the G2 San Felipe but was no match for the front running winner.

Last out in the S.A. Derby, Mor Spirit stretched out to nine furlongs and for the first time in a while ran an even race, in my opinion. While the speed was fading and the closers, namely Exaggerator did their running, he didn’t move much until gaining a slight bit of ground nearing the wire to grab the place money.

Mor Spirit worked a quick :59 4/5 on Tuesday, April 26 at Churchill shortly after arriving in Kentucky but is without regular morning rider Martin Garcia who had a dust up with Baffert and won’t be around to assist in his training in the days leading up to the race.

Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith won his lone Derby in 2005 with deep closer Giacomo at over 50-1. If he gets his second this year he’ll do it in the opposite manner with the front running Danzing Candy for owners Jim & Diane Bashor and Halo Farms and trainer Clifford Sise, Jr.

After an off the board finish in his debut while sprinting, Danzing Candy rattled off three straight, including an allowance optional claimer at a mile and a brazen, gate-tow-ire score in the San Felipe.

A son of Twirling Candy, Danzing Candy is bred to handle the off going but never seemed comfortable in the S.A. Derby when he blazed his way through a sharp half-mile in run-off fashion and was all but done by the time they reached the far turn. He trudged home fourth, beaten over 13 lengths.

Sise decided to get Danzing Candy out of the spotlight and shipped him to San Luis Rey Training Center to get ready for the first Saturday in May. He wrapped up his preparations with a five furlong move in :59 4/5 on Saturday, April 30th.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part 2
May 1, 2016


The second of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from Kentucky. The Bluegrass State offers up four runners who to the Derby Gods this season and could supply some of the more mysterious, intriguing contenders. With that said, we will start with a two time G1 winner, Brody’s Cause.

Owned by Albaugh Family Stables and trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, Brody’s Cause has done his best work in horse country, with all three of his victories coming in the state. After a failed debut on the turf, the son of Giant’s Causeway to win a one mile maiden event at Churchill Downs at over 33-1 with a powerful last-to-first move.

Wheeled back three weeks later, Brody’s Cause put in a similar late rally to win the Breeders’ Futurity in the mud at Keeneland before finishing out his juvenile campaign with a strong third place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Romans waited over four months to run him for the first time this year and Brody’s Cause surfaced in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Over a notoriously quirky racing surface, he didn’t raise a hoof as the 2-1 favorite after getting bumped slightly at the start and beat just two in the field of nine, finishing over a dozen lengths behind the winner.

He returned to the scene of his greatest score for what would be his final prep and was sent off at 4-1 in the Blue Grass. Under new rider Luis Saez for the first time, as regular rider Corey Lanerie stuck with another Romans runner in Cherry Wine, Brody’s Cause raced, as usual, towards the back of the pack as the field went the first half mile in a sharp :46 3/5.

Saez turned Brody’s Cause loose approaching the far turn and picked his way through the field before tipping six wide on the turn and hitting the lead in mid-stretch. He outkicked a couple of similar late rallies, including Cherry Wine’s, who managed to get third, to win by 1 ¾ lengths.

Brody’s Cause has had the luxury of training out of his own stall at Churchill Downs since the Blue Grass win and finished up his serious training with a five furlong drill in 1:00 1/5 on Saturday, April 30th.

My Man Sam was the other rallying late in the Blue Grass with the Romans runners and finished up strongly to get the place money in just the fourth start of his career for trainer Chad Brown and an ownership group led by Sheep Pond Partners, who also own the great Lady Eli.

My Man Sam made the first three starts of his career over the inner track at Aqueduct, a surface that has historically favored front runners, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle. He followed an off the board debut in a sprint with a breathtaking maiden win by eight lengths, a race in which he was nearly 15 lengths behind with a half mile to go. A second place finish by a length to the highly regarded Mat King Coal, who got loose on the lead that day, was his final start before the Blue Grass.

Under Julien Leparoux, My Man Sam had to overcome outside post 14 and eventually passed all but the winner in the Blue Grass while rallying eight wide to get enough points to qualify for the Derby field.

A son of Trappe Shot, My Man Sam will be reunited with Ortiz, Jr. for the Derby as Brown uses him regularly throughout the year. My Man Sam worked a half at Churchill in :49 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.

Despite being taken off of My Man Sam, Leparoux will ride the Derby, only he’ll be aboard G3 Spiral winner Oscar Nominated for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who has put up a $200,000 supplemental fee and trainer Mike Maker. By Ramsey’s amazing sire Kitten’s Joy, he’ll be making his first start on conventional dirt in the Derby.

Oscar Nominated started out his career in the barn of Bill Mott and was claimed by Maker in start three, a $75,000 maiden claiming win on the turf at Belmont. After finishing second in an entry level allowance contest on the lawn at Churchill under Leparoux, he was given a couple of months off.

Oscar Nominated returned in a couple of minor turf stakes at the Fair Grounds, finishing second by a neck in January before rallying to get the money in the Black Gold in late February. He made his first non-turf start in the Spiral over the Turfway Park Polytrack surface.

Under a perfectly timed ride by Brian Hernandez, Jr., who’ll pilot Tom’s Ready in the Derby, Oscar Nominated raced in mid-pack before swooping down the center of the course to win a multiple horse photo by a neck at 23-1.

Oscar Nominated has been stabled just down the road from Churchill Downs at their sister Training Center but did ship over to work under the Twin Spires, going five panels in 1:00 4/5 on Friday, April 29th.

Three years ago, Lani was born in Kentucky before being whisked away to Japan, where he has raced for Yoko Maeda and trainer Mikio Matsunaga.

By world-class sire Tapit, Lani debuted on the turf last September at 1 ¼ miles. He managed only a fourth place finish and after finishing second in his dirt debut finally broke his maiden at third asking going about nine furlongs off of a seven week rest against 14 rivals. He returned just six days later to win a stakes against 15 rivals going a mile. This year, he returned in a stakes run over a muddy track and finished fourth before shipping to Dubai for the G2 U.A.E. Derby.

Facing just six foes in the 1 3/16 miles contest, including the impressive filly Polar River, Lani broke terribly and spotted the field several lengths before catching up to the pack down the backstretch. He made a prolonged, wide move to get into contention on the far turn and kept on grinding on the outside while Polar River found trouble towards the inside. Lani hit the lead and managed to hold off the previously undefeated Polar River to win by ¾ of a length.

The Derby has been on his connections minds since January, when it is rumored they secured their Louisville hotel rooms. Lani arrived in Kentucky the first week of April and has trained at Churchill for nearly a month in a sometimes unorthodox manner. He’s had just two timed workouts, including three furlongs in :37 4/5 on Wednesday, April 27th and is scheduled to have his final major move during the week. Champion Japanese rider Yutaka Take has ridden him in all but one of his races and will be aboard in the Derby.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part 3
May 1, 2016

The third of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the runners from the East Coast. We’ll have six in all, three from New York and three from Florida, led by a horse who has had had plenty of success in both states, Mohaymen.

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for Shadwell Stables, Mohaymen won all three starts as a juvenile, a maiden event at Belmont as well as the G2 Nashua at a mile and G2 Remsen at nine furlongs at Aqueduct, and was a finalist for the Outstanding Two-Year-Old Eclipse Award.

A $2.2 million yearling purchase, the son of super-sire Tapit returned to action after a two month break as a three-year-old and picked up right where he left off, with an easy tally in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, then took the G2 Fountain of Youth with similar ease.

A matchup with Eclipse champ and fellow undefeated runner Nyquist was set in the G1 Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. On and off rains throughout the day left the track a gooey mess one minute then drying out muck the next. It was labeled good by the time the main event rolled around. Nyquist didn’t seem to mind the course. Mohaymen did.

Breaking from post 9 under regular rider Junior Alvarado, Mohaymen was bumped several times heading into the first turn and was wide throughout. He took a little run at Nyquist approaching the far turn but was easily turned aside and trudged home fourth, beaten over eight lengths.

Mohaymen seems to have rebounded nicely from his lone defeat, putting in a couple of solid works at Churchill, including a sharp half mile in in :47 2/5 on Friday, April 29th.

Grupo 7C Racing’s Majesto will be seeking his first stakes win in the Derby and has won just once in his six career starts. As a two-year-old, the son of 2000/2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow finished third in his sprint debut at Belmont before a second place finish around two turns a couple of months later in what would be the first of five consecutive starts at Gulfstream Park for trainer Gustavo Delgado.

A pair of sub-par efforts that resulted in a sixth place finish as the 9-5 chalk and third place finish in which he leveled off in the final eighth of a mile preceded a workmanlike maiden tally over a now-stakes winning Dig Deep, under Javier Castellano.

Unlike Mohaymen, Majesto was able to save ground under Castellano in the Florida Derby and parlayed an uneventful journey into a second place finish that concluded with a useful rally along the inside.

Majesto worked twice at Gulfstream Park West, including a one mile breeze, before working at Churchill Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:01 2/5. Emisael Jaramillo, a 39-year-old riding champion from Venezuela who had a fantastic Gulfstream Park Championship Meet, will ride for the first time.

Jaramillo picks up the call on Majesto because Castellano has decided to stick with Destin, one of two Derby contenders for his main man, Todd Pletcher.

A son of Giant’s Causeway, Destin won his debut in October at Belmont, beating Majesto and others before burning a ton of money in an entry level allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream when he finished second as the 3-10 favorite.

Pletcher, who won the 2010 Derby with Super Saver, added blinkers and shipped Destin to the Fair Grounds for the G3 LeComte. Destin failed to menace and finished fourth, five lengths behind the winner. Another surface switch followed as Destin found himself in Tampa for the G3 Sam F Davis a month layoff. The move paid off as Destin made the lead turning for home and drew off to a 2 ¼ length score.

He returned to Florida’s west coast for the G2 Tampa Bay Derby at the same 1 1/16 mile distance and showed his affinity for the quirky surface when he made a similar move to the one in the Davis to win by a length with Castellano up.

And that’s been it. Pletcher, usually as by the book as it gets, will unconventionally run Destin for Twin Creeks Racing in the Derby without the benefit of a nine furlong prep off of a 56 day layoff. He’s recorded five works since his last start, four at his winter base of Palm Beach Downs with the most recent being a five furlong move at Churchill in 1:01 1/5 on Friday, April 29th.

Pletcher will also send out the lightly raced, highly talented Outwork in Derby 142 for Mike Repole. Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who’s shown faith in this son of Uncle Mo on two separate occasions this winter and has ridden him in all four starts, has the mount. Velazquez won this in 2011 with Animal Kingdom.

Outwork started his career back in April of last year, winning a 4 ½ furlong maiden event at Keeneland by two lengths. He was away for nearly 10 months before returning to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going six furlongs at Tampa by over four lengths.

Outwork made his stakes/two turn debut in the Tampa Bay Derby and led most of the way before getting gunned down by his more seasoned stablemate in deep stretch. In an attempt to keep his prospects separated for the big 100 point, final preps, Pletcher opted to ship Outwork north.

Five years to the day that his sire, who was campaigned by the same connections, lost for the first time, in the G1 Wood Memorial, his son Outwork exacted a bit of redemption. After duking it out on the front-end early, Outwork faced a couple of far turn challenges then held on late to win by a head over the muddy main track at Aqueduct, a photo finish that resulted in Repole bear-hugging Pletcher in the paddock at the Big A once posted.

Outwork was stabled across town from Aqueduct at Pletcher’s Belmont barn before he shipped to Churchill. He went five furlongs in 1:01 on Friday, April 29th and seemed to mover over the track a bit better than most.

The two points Outwork’s detractors will make are that it was the slowest running of the nine furlong Wood Memorial in its’ 92 year history and that he won the aforementioned photo over a maiden, Trojan Nation.

Trainer Patrick Gallagher decided to send Trojan Nation east from California for the Wood Memorial for owners Julie Gilbert and Dr. Aaron Sones in spite of the fact that the son of Street Cry, sire of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, was winless in five prior starts.

In fact, Trojan Nation had mustered just a third place finish from three juvenile starts and a couple of third place finishes as a sophomore, with the last four coming around two turns.

But in the centerpiece of the Aqueduct meeting, Trojan Nation caught a muddy track that he apparently loved and got a solid half-mile of :46 4/5 to close into. And close he did, coming from last, nearly 20 lengths behind the leaders down the backstretch along the rail, to come within a head bob of taking the G1 staple under Aaron Gryder.
Gallagher waited a few days before committing the maiden to a run for the roses. No maiden has won the Derby since Brokers Tip in 1933. He’s done the bulk of his training at Santa Anita, including a six furlong work in 1:12 3/5 on Thursday, April 28th.

Shagaf looks to get back on track after a fifth place finish in the Wood Memorial, the first defeat in his short career for Shadwell and trainer Chad Brown.

Shagaf, a son of 2006 Preakness winner Bernardini, won his lone start last year, a one mile maiden event at Aqueduct by six easy lengths before returning nine weeks later to take an entry level allowance/optional claimer going the same distance at Gulfstream by two lengths.

The G3 Gotham over the inner track at Aqueduct served as Shagaf’s foray into graded stakes company as well as his first start around two turns. Shagaf saved ground going 1 1/16 miles and tipped out in the stretch before grinding out a 1 ¼ length victory over the maiden Laoban, who was loose on the lead from the rail on a day inside speed reigned supreme.

Shagaf stayed in New York to prepare for the Wood Memorial and was sent off the slight 9-5 favorite. He had just Trojan Nation beat down the backside and began to move up approaching the turn, swung out for the drive but did little more than spin his wheels in the mud from the quarter pole home.

Shagaf has had just a couple of works, both at Churchill since, including a :47 4/5 half mile move on Friday, April 29th. Joel Rosario, who piloted Orb to a popular Derby victory in 2013, replaces Irad Ortiz, Jr. who has ridden him in all of his prior starts. He’ll ride Brown’s other contender, My Man Sam.

 

[CNOTES]

Derby Contenders - Part 4
May 3, 2016

The fourth of our four part Kentucky Derby preview series will focus on the three runners from Louisiana and the three from Arkansas. Steve Asmussen, recently announced as one of four new inductees to the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, trains two of these contenders, Gun Runner and Creator.

Gun Runner has done little wrong in his five start career for his owners, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm. As a juvenile, he won his first two starts, including a one mile maiden event at Churchill, before finishing fourth in the G2 KJC in the slop after making the lead in mid-stretch.

He returned from a near three month break in the G2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds with new rider Florent Geroux. He saved ground in midpack before moving up approaching the turn and grabbing the lead in the stretch, holding on by just half a length after visibly tiring late.

By Candy Ride, Gun Runner drew the rail in his final prep, the G2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs. Under a masterful ride by Geroux, he sat just a couple of lengths off the early pace, made an aggressive move to the leaders on the turn and opened up a two length lead in the stretch. Instead of tiring, however, Gun Runner turned it on and powered home a 4 ½ length winner.

Gun Runner shipped to Churchill soon after his last win and will come into the Derby off of a 42 day layoff, He’s worked every Monday since April 4th, typical Asmussen, including an easy half mile in :50 2/5 on Monday May 2nd.

Stablemate Creator will have half that time between starts as he took the Oaklawn Park route to Louisville for owners WinStar Farm. And speaking of time, Creator took it to break his maiden, losing all four starts last year and his first this year before finally getting it done in his Oaklawn debut with a solid last to first move.

Asmussen thought enough of this son of the great Tapit, who sired 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist, to run him right back in the G2 Rebel. As usual, Creator set up camp towards the rear of the field from his rail draw but closed nicely towards the center of the track to finish third, beaten just three lengths.

Creator stamped himself a serious Derby contender last out with an impressive 1 ¼ length tally in the G1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Taken back to last by Ricardo Santana, Jr., Creator had just three horses beat on the far turn before exploding through the back, as opposed to going around them, to win going away under his pumped up jock.

He too went straight to Churchill after his race and has worked just twice, including a :50 3/5 half on Monday, May 2nd.

Suddenbreakingnews is one of the more consistent runners in the field, compiling three wins and four runner-up finishes in his eight race career for owner Samuel Henderson and trainer Donnie Von Hemel.

Suddenbreakingnews, a gelded son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, made five starts as a two-year-old and won twice, including a minor stakes race at Remington Park before closing out the season at that track with a second place finish in the Springboard Mile in the slop under regular rider Luis Quinonez.

After a two month break, Suddenbreakingnews returned in the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn and thrust himself into the Derby spotlight with a sparkling last to first move in the field of 14. He tried to do the same in the Rebel bud didn’t fire as strongly, perhaps a product of some far turn traffic trouble.

It was a different story in the Arkansas Derby last out when he was actually a couple of lengths closer than he had been of late and came charging with his late run but proved to be no match for Creator.

He’s worked just once since his last start, a solid five furlongs in :59 3/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th.

Whitmore has had a productive winter for his ownership group that includes Harry Rosenblum and Bob LaPenta in spite of the fact that his lone win was in an entry level allowance contest.

A gelded son of Pleasantly Perfect, Whitmore raced twice as a juvenile, winning his debut before an off the board finish in the G3 Delta Jackpot, two months before that win at Oaklawn to start the season for his trainer Ron Moquett.

Whitmore has been the victim of circumstance in a couple of his starts this year. He looked home free in the Southwest before Suddenbreakingnews came calling and made a menacing move at Cupid in the Rebel before being held at bay, ultimately finishing second in both.

Last out in the Arkansas Derby, the plan was the keep him a bit closer than he had been in his prior two efforts but he clipped heels several jumps out of the gate and was once again forced to settle towards the rear of the field. He came with his usual rally but was forced to settle for third after rallying down the six-path and brushing with Creator in the stretch under Irad Ortiz, Jr.

With Ortiz committed to My Man Sam, Whitmore’s connections have reached out to three time Derby winner Victor Espinoza. He won his first Derby in 2002 with War Emblem and the last two runnings with California Chrome and American Pharoah. He finished up his major preparation on Friday, April 29th, going five furlongs in 1:00 at Churchill.

G M B Racing will be represented by a couple of runners in the Derby, Mo Tom from the barn of trainer Tom Amoss and Tom’s Ready, who’s trained by Dallas Stewart.

Last year, Mo Tom won twice and finished third twice from four starts. A win in the Street Sense at Churchill going a mile was followed by a third place finish in the KJC.

Amoss took Mo Tom, a son of Uncle Mo, down to the Fair Grounds for the winter and Mo Tom won first out as a sophomore, coming from far back to take the G3 LeComte. Then things got interesting.

Mo Tom came charging along the inside in the Risen Star and looked like he’d get to Gun Runner but was forced to steady in traffic and couldn’t get outside in time, settling for third.

A similar fate awaited Mo Tom in the Louisiana Derby, though it’s tough to say if he’d have gotten to the winner. What can be said is his rider Corey Lanerie did the exact same thing, getting him hemmed up along the inside when he could have swung clear of traffic, and cost him at least two placings when he finished a tough luck fourth.

Amoss flipped out and took Lanerie off of another of his runners, one that found the winners’ circle, just 20 minutes before the race. After some deliberation it was decided that Lanerie would amazingly keep the mount. Mo Tom finished up his major work with a half mile at Churchill in :48 3/5 on Friday, April 29th.

Toms Ready has had a far less eventful campaign. A son of More Than Ready, he’s won just once in nine starts, a seven furlong maiden event at Churchill last fall. In all he ran six times as a two-year-old and was second to his stablemate in the Street Sense.

He started this season in similar fashion, as he was second to Mo Tom in the LeComte before failing to fire in the Risen Star.

Last out, he overcame some trouble at the start and managed to work his way into contention while staying out of trouble to finish second, over four lengths behind the winner at over 30-1.

Longshots in big races has become a bit of a specialty for Stewart, who trained Golden Soul and Commanding Curve to finish second in the Derby in 2013 and 2014 at over 30-1 and Tale of Verve to do the same last year in the Preakness. Tom’s Ready blazed five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Churchill on Friday, April 29th. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will ride.

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby Kids hit social media
May 4, 2016

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) The offspring of several Kentucky Derby trainers are hitting social media this week to provide inside dirt on their fathers' horses.

At least 14 sons and daughters are tweeting on the Kentucky Horsemen's Benevolent & Protective Association account. The HBPA is donating $100 to the charity of choice for all the Twitter participants.

Bailey Romans, daughter of trainer Dale Romans who will saddle Brody's Cause on Saturday, is among those interviewing her dad online. She tweeted a photo of the colt baring his teeth, suggesting they needed to be cleaned before Derby day.

Keith Assmussen, son of Steve Asmussen who trains Gun Runner and Creator, is joining in. Hannah Pletcher, daughter of Todd Pletcher, also has two horses to tweet about: Destin and Outwork. Bailey Desormeaux is the son of Keith Desormeaux, who trains Exaggerator, and nephew of the colt's jockey, Hall of Famer Kent Desormeaux.

Not involved is Bode Baffert, the pre-teen son of four-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Bode is frequently seen with his parents at the track, but they don't allow him on social media yet.

The Twitter account is (at)KyHBPA with the hashtag (hash)KYDerbyKids.

 

[CNOTES]

Stanley Cup to visit contender Nyquist
May 4, 2016

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) The Stanley Cup is coming to the Kentucky Derby.

The prize awarded to hockey's championship team will be brought to the barn of trainer Doug O'Neill on Saturday, hours before he saddles expected Derby favorite Nyquist in the 1 1/4-mile race.

Nyquist's owner, Paul Reddam, is Canadian and a big fan of the Detroit Red Wings. Reddam named his prize colt after Red Wings player Gustav Nyquist, who is Swedish.

The Cup will be escorted by its minder who travels with it throughout the year.

It's not the Cup's first visit to Churchill Downs. It visited the Derby in 2006, making a trip down the red carpet. It returned from 2012-15 to parade on the carpet, and in 2014 it also visited the barn of Wicked Strong, who finished fourth.

 

[CNOTES]

DERBY 2016: By-the-numbers at the Kentucky Derby
May 4, 2016

Kentucky Derby by-the-numbers:

- 0 winners from post No. 17

- 1 winner without 2-year-old start (Apollo, 1882)

- 1 1/4 miles from start to finish or 2,011.68 meters or 2,200 yards or 79,200 inches

- 1:59 2/5 is Secretariat's record-setting time.

- 2.80 is record low payoff for $2 win bet on winner (Count Fleet, 1943; Citation, 1948)

- 3 winning fillies (Regret, Genuine Risk, Winning Colors)

- 3 1/2 pounds is weight of Derby trophy

- 4 wins for trainer Bob Baffert

- 5 wins for jockeys Eddie Arcaro, Bill Hartack

- 6 3/4 length win by Mine That Bird in 2009, largest in 63 years

- 7 unbeaten starters won

- 8 wins for owner Calumet Farm

- 12 Triple Crown winners

- 13 winners started from post No. 5

- 19 winners whose names began with letter S

- 20 horses is maximum field

- 22 wire-to-wire winners

- 26 starters entered unbeaten

- 47 barns at Churchill Downs

- 48 starters for trainer D. Wayne Lukas

- 54 years, oldest winning jockey Bill Shoemaker (Ferdinand, 1986)

- 77 years, oldest winning trainer Art Sherman (California Chrome, 2014)

- 92 years, oldest winning owner Frances Genter (Unbridled, 1990)

- 107 winners born in Kentucky

- 141 previous runnings

- 184.90 is record high payoff for $2 bet on winner (Donerail, 1913)

- 218 imported rolled cigars

- 400 roses comprise garland draped over winner

- 1,234 1/2 feet for stretch, from head of lane to finish line

- 2,000 media credentials

- 5,000 liters of bourbon

- 11,500 workers at Churchill Downs

- 49,000 Derby pies

- 58,654 reserved seats for Derby, Oaks

- 127,000 mint juleps

- 163,000 hot dogs

- 170,513 people attended in 2015

- 522,000 cans of beer

- 1,043,346 pari-mutuel tickets sold in 2015 by Churchill Downs

- 4,000,000 dollars for highest priced winner/starter bought at auction (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000)

- 17,900,000 million viewers watched NBC from 6:30p-6:45p in 2015.

- 194,000,000 dollars in total wagers (a record) in 2015.

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


Notes from VegasInsider.com on the Kentucky Derby.......


1) Trojan Nation (50-1)-- Its been 80+ years since a maiden won this race.


3) Creator (10-1)-- One of many closers; has navigated thru traffic before.


4) Mo Tom (20-1)-- Got a lousy ride in the Louisiana Derby.


8) Exaggerator (8-1)-- Ran well in Santa Anita Derby, but on a wet track.


13) Nyquist (3-1)-- Favorite is undefeated in his seven-race career.


17) Mor Spirit (12-1)-- His jockey (Gary Stevens) has won Derby three times.

 

[CNOTES]

At the Gate - Kentucky Oaks
May 5, 2016


It is Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday at Churchill Downs and things get started early at 10:30am ET and the final of 13 races on the outstanding card is set for 7:00 ET. That’s a full work day.

The feature is the $1 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) while drew a full field of 14 and is one of six stakes races on the card.

Things seemed quiet on the backstretch at Churchill Downs on Thursday, with no major defections, and the weather forecast looks perfect for both days of racing.

The stakes action on Friday starts with the $300,000 La Troine which drew a field of seven with Sheer Drama and Curalina the two main contenders. Sheer Drama won the Madison (G1) in her last start while Curalina makes her first start since running third in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) last fall.

The $200,000 Eight Belles (G2) drew a field of eight three-year-olds going seven furlongs on the main track. Carina Mia, who was fourth in the Ashland (G1) is the 8-5 morning line favorite.

The $150,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3) is a five-furlong mad dash on the turf with defending champ Power Alert back. He faces a tough group that includes the Wesley Ward trained Hootenanny and Shakertown (G2) runner up Something Else.

A field of 10 older foes will go in the $400,000 Alysheba (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The top two from the Ben Ali (G2) Eagle and Noble Bird face off again, and Cat Burglar and Majestic Affair figure to take some betting action.

Catch a Glimpse will be a short price in the $150,000 Edgewood (G3). The filly is perfect in five starts on turf including taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last fall at Keeneland.

My selections for the Kentucky Oaks is below.

Here is today’s opener from Churchill Downs to get the day off to a good start:

CD Race 1 Md Sp Wt (10:30 ET)


#4 Burma Road 6-1

#7 Modify 6-5


#3 Gurlin 5-1


#6 Linda Mimi 10-1

Analysis: Burma Road stretches out to seven furlongs here for her third career start for the Wilkes barn that usually does not have them fully cranked early. This filly was a good second in her debut, then regressed last out in a fourth place finish. She has nine sibs that re winners and three are stakes winners, top earner Motor City ($172,076). She reunited with Leparoux who was aboard the filly in her debut. Decent value if she goes off near the 6-1 morning line.

Modify ran second in each of her first two career starts, last out as the beaten favorite at Oaklawn Park going six panels. The $475,000 Keeneland purchase earned the top last out speed fig and is the logical one to beat here for the Asmussen barn. She is out of a stakes placed Vindication mare that has dropped two winners. She will be tough here but a short price.

Wagering


WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.


EX: 4,7 / 3,4,6,7


TRI: 4,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 3,4,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 11 The Kentucky Oaks G1 (5:49 ET)

#3 Lewis Bay 8-1


#11 Rachel's Valentina 7-2


#12 Cathryn Sophia 9-2


#13 Land Over Sea 5-1

Analysis: Lewis Bay looks like good value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line. The Chad Brown trainee has won twice at nine furlongs, winning the Demoiselle (G2) in her stakes debut at Aqueduct last November and winning the Gazelle (G2) in the mud last out. In that outing she tracked the early pace, took command at the top of the stretch and was geared down late, winning by 1 1/2 lengths but the margin could have been bigger. The racing strip that day was also favoring off the pace types. She has a nice pedigree, Bernardini out of the stakes winner Summer Raven ($168,910) who has dropped two other winners and they are both stakes winners—Winslow Homer ($273,365) and Misconnect ($327,100).

Rachel's Alexandra does not have a shabby pedigree herself, by Bernardini out of the multiple Grade 1 winner Rachel Alexandra, who won the 2009 Oaks and went on to win the Preakness (G1). The Todd Pletcher trainee has made just one start this year, beaten a neck in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland by 30-1 longshot Weep No More, who also is entered here. Last year she won the Spinaway (G1) in her stakes debut and then was no match for Songbird in the stretch in a runner up finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She is reunited with Johnny V. who was aboard for her two wins and should move forward in her second start off the bench. Pletcher has won this race three times, most recently with Princess of Sylmar in 2013.

Cathryn Sophia tracked the early pace, came with a four wide bid to get to the front and did not have enough punch left late in a close up third in the Ashland, beaten a half-length for the top spot as the beaten chalk. It was her first loss after starting her career perfect in four starts, all around one turn. She does have enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs, by Street Boss out of a Mineshaft mare, her first foal to race. She came back with a bullet drill over at Keeneland on April 23 and may be too early to give up on her.

Wagering


WIN: #3 to win at 9-2 or better.


EX: 3,11 / 3,11 ,12,13


TRI: 3,11 / 3,11,12,13 / 2,3,11,12,13

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Churchill Downs


R1: #6 Linda Mimi 10-1


R4: #6 Smart Emma 10-1


R5: #4 Dasaateer 8-1


R7: #3 Summer Reading 8-1


R10: #13 Heavenly View 15-1


R11: #3 Lewis Bay 8-1


R12: #7 Long Ago 10-1


R12: #6 Will Do It 10-1


R13: #2 Bankers Holiday 12-1


R13: #4 Stonescape 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[CNOTES]

Rachel's Valentina is 7-2 favorite for Oaks
May 5, 2016


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Without Songbird to worry about, Steve Asmussen sees a wide-open Kentucky Oaks where nothing would shock him.


''It just got everybody thinking things we weren't thinking a month ago,'' says Asmussen the newly named Hall of Fame trainer who will be sending out Terra Promessa (10-1), Royal Obsession and Taxable (both 20-1). ''She was just a dominant filly.''


Rachel's Valentina is the 7-2 morning-line favorite and something of a sentimental choice as the daughter of 2009 Preakness champion and Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra by 2006 Preakness winner and champion colt Bernardini.


One of two fillies in the Oaks trained by Todd Pletcher, Rachel's Valentina won the Grade 1 Spinaway at Saratoga. Runner-up finishes to Songbird in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and Weep No More in the Ashland followed as a 3-year-old.


John Velazquez will ride Rachel's Valentina, who drew the No. 11 post position in the 14-horse field. Pletcher is eager to see how she'll maintain the promise shown as a 2-year-old.


''Right from the start, she did everything right,'' he said this week. ''She learned quickly. She's been a pleasure, and that makes my job easier.''


Pletcher's other entry is Mo d'Amour (30-1), a daughter of Uncle Mo who has three wins and two thirds in six starts.


Weep No More surprised many by rallying past the favorites as a 30-1 longshot in the Ashland for her first graded stakes win in her 2016 debut. Back at Churchill Downs for the first time since running eighth in her debut Nov. 28, she is the co-second choice but must break from the No. 2 post with Corey Lanerie aboard.


''I thought she'd be 8-1,'' said Jack Bohannon, assistant to trainer Rusty Arnold. ''But I'm not a handicapper.''


Cathryn Sophia trainer John Servis acknowledges that his horse probably wouldn't be in the Oaks if Songbird was running.


But after running third in the 1 1/16 mile Ashland, he's curious to see how she'll handle the longer distance that's now there for the taking. Cathryn Sophia starts from the No. 12 post with Javier Castellano aboard.


''As good as she ran in the Ashland, especially with Songbird being out,'' Servis said, ''I think she definitely deserves a chance.''


Land Over Sea is a 5-1 choice starting from the No. 13 spot with Lewis Bay listed at 8-1 from the No. 3 post.


Post time for the 1 1/8-mile race is 5:49 p.m. EDT.

 

[CNOTES]

Baffert returns with under the radar horse
May 5, 2016


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Bob Baffert feels under the radar with his latest horse at the Kentucky Derby. All anyone wants to talk about is American Pharoah, last year's winner who went on to become the sport's first Triple Crown champion in 37 years.


Outside his barn at Churchill Downs, visitors pull special edition bourbon bottles decorated in Pharoah's teal silks out of plastic grocery bags for the Hall of Fame trainer to sign. He listens patiently while they recount their memories of the people-loving colt, ''who made them feel so good,'' Baffert said.


He calls it the ''American Pharoah hangover.'' Clearly it's the best kind to have.


''I don't know if we'll ever see one that intelligent, that kind, where I could bring him out here and you guys could be all over him. He didn't care, he loved human contact,'' Baffert said. ''Nobody flies that much and runs that well. It's just crazy that he could handle it. I don't think we'll see one that tough.''


Earlier in the week, Baffert and wife Jill visited American Pharoah at his new home in Lexington, where the colt is busy producing possible future Derby runners when he's not greeting the public five days a week.


''It was a little emotional. It was like going to visit your child at camp,'' Baffert said. ''I think he recognized Jill. She talks to him in this little high sweet voice and he nickered to her. He's still really sweet and kind. They let me walk him around and be by myself with him.''


Then it was time to get in the car and drive back to reality.


Waiting at Baffert's barn with a view of the twin spires was Mor Spirit, another horse like Pharoah with a misspelled name. He has never been worse than second in seven career starts. Mor Spirit has previously mixed it up with some of his Derby competition, finishing second to Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby and second to Danzing Candy in the San Felipe in his most recent starts.


''Expectations might be a little bit lower,'' Baffert said. ''Turning for home if he's right there I know he'll fight and get a piece of it.''


Notice he didn't say win.


''You have a lot of horses here that are pretty equal,'' he said. ''There's so much parity, they haven't really separated themselves. Maybe there will be another American Pharoah. Maybe Derby day some horse is just going to step up and say, `Hey, I'm the one.'''


That's what Pharoah did last year, setting Baffert and his family, owner Ahmed Zayat, jockey Victor Espinoza and the stable help on a historic journey that captured the public's imagination in a way horse racing rarely does anymore.


''When Victor came off him after the Breeders' Cup,'' Baffert said, ''I told him we'll never have another American Pharoah.''


Still, he's always searching. All of Baffert's other Derby candidates fell by the wayside for one reason or another this winter, leaving Mor Spirit still standing. He'll be ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens.


''He's done everything well since he's been here,'' the trainer said. ''He really likes the surface and that's very important.''


The last time a Baffert horse started the Kentucky Derby from post 17 was Point Given in 2001, with Stevens aboard. They finished fifth as the 9-5 favorite that Saturday in May before going on to win the Preakness and Belmont as well as Horse of the Year honors.


No horse has ever won the Derby from that post, where Mor Spirit landed.


''We'll just have to make history again this year,'' Baffert said.

 

[CNOTES]

Pletcher sends out 2 horses for Derby
May 5, 2016


LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) Todd Pletcher, Bob Baffert and Doug O'Neill are the only trainers in this year's Kentucky Derby with previous victories in the race.


Baffert got his fourth Derby last year with American Pharoah, who went on to sweep the Triple Crown. A win by Mor Spirit on Saturday would move Baffert within one of the record held by Ben Jones.


O'Neill has the favorite this time in the undefeated Nyquist. O'Neill is 1 for 4 in the Derby, winning with I'll Have Another in 2012.


It's been leaner for Pletcher - not from a lack of trying.


Pletcher captured the 2010 Derby with Super Saver, his lone winner from 43 runners. That total ranks second only to D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Derby winner who has saddled 48 Derby horses.


Pletcher, who has run as many as five in one Derby, tries again with a pair of 15-1 shots: Outwork and Destin.


''I think we have two really nice horses who are doing really well,'' Pletcher said. ''I think both horses are going to run their races. It would be bold to say they were going to win, but I think both are coming up to it well enough to run their best race.''


Neither horse has generated much pre-Derby excitement. Both have excellent records and will be ridden by top jockeys. Hall of Famer John Velazquez has the mount on Outwork. Javier Castellano, the leading money winner in the nation, rides Destin.


Both won stakes in their final preps.


Outwork captured the Wood Memorial last month, improving his record to 3 for 4. The lone defeat was a second-place finish to stablemate Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.


Destin has not run since, an unusually long gap of almost two months.


''We felt this gives him the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby,'' Pletcher said. ''Putting another race in between that and the Derby might not allow him to make another move forward to continue on the path he was on. Everybody was comfortable with leaving out a significant race in between. You couldn't do it with a lot of horses.''


Pletcher, 48, has won the Eclipse Award as leading trainer seven times, taking home the honor most recently in 2014.


Pletcher isn't the only trainer with multiple horses in this Derby. Chad Brown sends out the duo of My Man Sam and Shagaf, both at 20-1. Steve Asmussen saddles a pair of 10-1 shots: Creator and Gun Runner.

 

[CNOTES]

Repole in Derby chase with Outwork
May 5, 2016


LEXINGTON, Ky. (AP) Five years ago, Mike Repole was living the dream. He had already made his share of an estimated $4.1 billion fortune from the sale of the company that produced Vitaminwater, and now he had himself a Kentucky Derby favorite with a horse named Uncle Mo.


Repole would regale any and all about growing up in Queens, New York, near Aqueduct, heading the track after school, making bets and loving horses.


But Uncle Mo never made it to the Derby. A day before, he was withdrawn from the race because of what turned out to be a life-threatening liver ailment. The lightning-fast colt recovered, ran again and won, but was never the same. He was retired later in the year. Repole called Uncle Mo the best horse he'll ever own.


And he wasn't even talking about Uncle Mo's life after racing. As a stallion, at stud in the breeding shed. With just his first crop of 3-year-olds, Uncle Mo already is a leading sire in North America - ''red hot,'' according to Coolmore Ashford Stud, where Uncle Mo is performing with mind-boggling success.


He's the proud sire of three of the 20 3-year-olds running in Saturday's Derby - from morning-line favorite Nyquist to long shot Mo Tom to a horse Repole owns, Wood Memorial winner Outwork. Tapit, a leading sire the past several years, also has three offspring in the Derby, but for a young sire like Uncle Mo to be so productive so early is rare.


''I always knew Mo was a once-in-a-lifetime horse,'' said Repole, who has made several visits to Ashford Stud, including Wednesday before the Derby draw in Louisville. ''What I didn't expect five years ago was he would give me offspring that were brilliant also. I never thought Uncle Mo would be a better sire than he was a racehorse, but he's going to be.''


While Outwork already has accomplished something Uncle Mo didn't - winning the Wood - it's Nyquist who's been this year's sensation for owner J. Paul Reddam. Like Uncle Mo, Nyquist won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and was voted 2-year-old champion. Entering the Derby he's 7-for-7; Outwork is 3-for-4 and Mo Tom won the Lecomte and ran second in the Louisiana Derby.


''Uncle Mo's oldest crop are only 3-year-olds, but his success so far is unlike anything we have seen for a long time,'' Ashford's manager Dermot Ryan said. ''It's fair to say that Uncle Mo is the hottest young sire in the country and as such he is extremely popular.''


And valuable. His stud fee is up to $75,000, he's booked for the rest of the season and ''the way he's going that will likely have a big increase next season,'' Ryan said.


Some of Uncle Mo's success: 20 of his 3-year-olds were nominated to the Triple Crown races (the most by any sire) and sales of Uncle Mo's are soaring - a pair of 2-year-olds recently went for more than $1 million each, and Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert picked out a yearling for $700,000. Repole is buying them up, too. He owns more than a dozen.


Through April 26, Uncle Mo's progeny totals 585 foals, including 323 of racing age with earnings of more than $8.5 million, according to Equineline.com. Already, he's having a huge influence on his offspring as a big bay, durable, fast and smart.


''They have size and scope, and they look like him, too. His dominant genes are coming through,'' said Todd Pletcher, who trains Outwork and trained Uncle Mo. ''What's great about him is he can put speed into a big horse. They old-timers will tell you that a really good sire will stamp his offspring. He is doing that.''


Doug O'Neill sure is a believer. He trains Nyquist, who has won all seven of his races, including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile - like Uncle Mo did - and the Florida Derby. His brother, Dennis, picked out Nyquist at a price of $400,000.


''He just really loved the way he moved,'' O'Neill said. ''And he picks out athletes first, the pedigree is secondary. But once he fell in love with him as an individual, the Uncle Mo was just a huge added bonus because of how good he was.''


Now, O'Neill feels fortunate his brother was at the right place at the right time.


''The other Uncle Mo's were really looking good in the sales, too, even though none of them had run yet, but there was definitely a buzz about Uncle Mo. Fortunately, we jumped ahead of the hot Uncle Mo train.''


Today, Uncle Mo hangs out with former stablemate Stay Thirsty at Ashford, and heads to the breeding shed in the early afternoons.


''He's a big, strong horse and is all stallion,'' Ashford stallion manager Richard Barry said. ''He's a pleasure to be around and seems to excel at everything he does.''


Repole's visit on Wednesday went well.


''Spending time with him brings back so many amazing memories,'' he said. ''You're supposed to love your children the same, but Mo will always be my favorite.''


For Repole, winning the Wood with Outwork was a great moment he shared with family and friends: ''To come back five years later, a New York guy, and winning it? Probably the most special moment I've had in my racing career,'' he said.


Outwork will be Repole's third Derby horse. Stay Thirsty ran the year Uncle Mo was scratched and finished 12th. Overanalyze ran 11th in the 2013 Derby.


Just days away from the race, Repole will be one nervous owner.


''The anxiety before the race is not fun,'' he said. ''The exhilaration after (winning) the race is fun. And to have a horse that's a son of Uncle Mo in it ... You can't ask for more.''

 

[CNOTES]

Kentucky Derby Breakdown


2016 BREAKDOWN


PP - Horse ML Odds Jockey (Derby Record) Trainer (Derby Record)

1 - Trojan Nation (50/1) Aaron Gryder (0-3) Patrick Gallagher (0-1)
Notes: There is a reason a maiden hasn’t won this race in over eighty years and that’s because it is arguably the toughest race in the world to win. Plus, he’s picking one of the most contentious runnings to try and pull off a seemingly impossible task. The only race on his card I remotely like is his second place finish in the Wood Memorial last out but I think he just freaked over a surface a few of his rivals didn’t love. Not sure I’d bet him in a maiden race on the undercard. A complete toss out.

2 – Suddenbreakingnews (20/1) Luis Quinonez (Debut) Donnie Von Hemel (Debut)
Notes: He burst on the scene with a rousing last to first run in the Southwest but couldn’t find the winners’ circle in his last two, including a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby last out. There are a ton of deep, one run closers in this group and frankly he hasn’t done anything to overly impress me. If you’re on social media, however, you’ll know he is a darling of many and sort of the “wise-guy” horse you see every single year so he’ll probably take some money. It’s a wide open year, and 15 of them can hit the board, including him, I’m just not sold he can finish first or second.


3 – Creator (10/1) Ricardo Santana, Jr. (0-1) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: Of all the deep closers in this race, I’m most impressed with him because he’s made up his ground while navigating through traffic instead of going around it. He’s never seven, eight or nine wide. He’s right in the thick of things. He knifed his was through a bulky field in the Arkansas Derby last out and outkicked horses that had the jump on him. My biggest problem with him is that five or six others figure to be launching their bids when he does. Makes for an awfully crowded stretch run. It’s awfully tough for horses like him to win this race for the most part but he might just be good enough. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.

4 - Mo Tom (20/1) Corey Lanerie (0-1) Tom Amoss (0-4)
Notes: He’s provided the soap opera on the Trail this year. After a stretch drive in the Risen Star that saw him take up in the midst of what appeared to be a winning move, many wondered not if but by how far would he win the Louisiana Derby. When his rider went inside, again, and got stopped, again, we waited to see if Lanerie would keep the mount for the Derby. They dragged it out a week or so but finally announced that he would in fact ride. What I find funny is that fact that such a deal is made over him. He’s another one run closer in a race full of them. I feel confident in saying two things: Lanerie will have him on the outside and he won’t be in the exacta. Use only in the bottom half of tris and supers.


5 - Gun Runner 10/1) Florent Geroux (Debut) Steve Asmussen (0-13)
Notes: The draw didn’t really hurt any of the main contenders, save one or two, but this guy really benefitted from it. The four horses to his inside and three to his outside don’t have much, if any, early speed which should allow him to get a trip similar to the last two he’s had that resulted in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby scores. He hasn’t run in six weeks and only has two preps this year but did win his debut and off of a three month break to start this season. Asmussen was announced as a recent inductee to the Hall of Fame this year up in Saratoga in August and he could make it his most memorable yet with a win in the race every trainer wants to win. He has it all and should be right around his morning line odds. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.

6 - My Man Sam 20/1 Irad Ortiz, Jr. (0-1) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: In his little time on the racetrack, this colt has impressed me. I loved his second place finish to up and comer Matt King Coal on a speed biased course that aided the winner two back and loved his late rally to get the place money in the Blue Grass. He gets reunited with the jock that rode him in his first three but it’s worth noting that Ortiz has won one race at Churchill on the dirt while Leparoux, who was aboard last out, has won 10 riding titles. I feel that of all the “deep closers,” he’s the one that could in fact lay a bit closer. At that price I hope I’m right. Using him on most of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.


7 - Oscar Nominated 50/1 Julien Leparoux (0-8) Mike Maker (0-8)
Notes: The Ramseys are putting up $200K to supplement this horse to the Triple Crown and I can think of 200K better things to do with the money. He’s never run on conventional dirt. Ever. All turf and one synthetic start, his win in the Spiral last out in which he was probably third best. His pedigree lends to added distance…..on the grass. There aren’t too many I’m completely tossing from everything this year but he is one of them.


8 – Lani 30/1 Yutaka Take (0-1) Mikio Matsunaga (Debut)
Notes: This year’s mystery horse from Dubai, by way of Japan who just so happens to be bred in Kentucky. He’s taken the long way to get back to the Bluegrass State if you ask me. Look, people are impressed by the fact that he’s beaten fields of 15 and 16, that his races are all over a distance of ground and that he’s by Tapit. That’s all well and good but keep in mind he beat a filly who had a miserable trip in his points race, the U.A.E. Derby, has had strange training regimen since arriving here, to say the least and is rumored to be a head case. Sounds like a recipe for disaster if you ask me. Besides, I saw this movie last year when the lead role went to Mubtaahij. That ending stunk. This one doesn’t figure to be much better. I’m tossing him.


9 – Destin 15/1 Javier Castellano (0-9) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s going to try and buck a ton of history as this will be his first start in eight weeks and he’s never raced past 1 1/16 miles. He looked good winning the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby but they both came at Tampa Bay Downs, one of the quirkiest racing surfaces in the land. Horses often love it or hate it. He obviously fell into the first column. I don’t think I’m saying anything groundbreaking when I say something has to be up because you don’t attack this race the way he is doing so unless you have to. Combine that with Pletcher’s record in this and the fact that his presence, as well as Castellano’s will lead to this horse taking some money and he’s an easy toss for me.


10 – Whitmore 20/1 Victor Espinoza (3-7) Ron Moquett (0-1)
Notes: One of a few that has given me fits this year. I feel like he always runs a good race yet always manages to find a way to lose. It bugs me that he’s won both of his sprints and he’s winless in his four starts around two turns and that he always seems to be losing ground at the end of his distance races. But he’s had excuses in almost all of them, namely last out when he clipped heels and almost went down a few strides out of the gate when he was third in the Arkansas Derby. With hopes of getting him in the game a bit earlier on, his connections have reached out to 2002, 2014 and 2015 Derby winner Espinoza. He won all three of those on or close to the lead and while I’m not saying he’ll be forwardly placed I feel like he’ll be closer early on than he has been in a long while. And that makes him a player. On all of my exotic tickets and most of my multi-race wagers.


11 – Exaggerator 8/1 Kent Desormeaux (3-19) Keith Desormeaux (Debut)
Notes: I think part of the reason this Derby puzzle seems especially tough this year is because three of the final, major preps were run over wet tracks, including the Santa Anita Derby where this guy blew their doors off with a scintillating move approaching the far turn. It’s doubly tough to figure out how much the track played a part with him because many felt he was sitting on that kind of race BUT he had great wet track form in the past. I feel like it was a combination of both, but I don’t like the fact that his connections have made it clear they plan to use the same tactics – take back and make one big run – in here. Running past seven at Santa Anita is lot different than 19 in Kentucky in this race, especially this year, as there figures to be a bigger crowd at the tail end of the bunch than anywhere else. His rider has won this in 1998, 2000 and 2008 and would love to get number four for his brother. On some of my exotic tickets and I will save with him in my multi-race wagers.


12 - Tom’s Ready 30/1 Brian Hernandez, Jr. (Debut) Dallas Stewart (0-4)
Notes: He hails from a barn that has been uncanny and getting longshots to run at big prices on racings’ biggest stages. After that, I don’t have a lot of good things to say, if any. He’s won just once in nine starts (it did come at Churchill) and it looks to me like he doesn’t want to go a step past a mile, a theory supported by his breeding and previous races. He was second in the Louisiana Derby last out because someone had to be and his buddy Mo Tom got stopped cold along the rail. One of just a handful that is a complete toss for me.


13 – Nyquist 3/1 Mario Gutierrez (1-1) Doug O’Neill (1-4)
Notes: The juvenile Eclipse champ has done nothing wrong, as he’s undefeated in his seven race career. His connections all teamed up to win this in 2012 with I’ll Have Another. California based runners have won the last two runnings and three of the last four. He’s by one of the hottest sires in the land, Uncle Mo. What could possibly stop him? Well, there is always the extra furlong, which some, including me, are dubious of when it comes to his pedigree. Then there is the issue of his schedule. I’m not a big fan of just two preps, especially when one of them is seven furlongs. But, if you’re trying to win a nine furlong race, like they did last out in the Florida Derby when he was alive for a $1 million bonus. It sounds ridiculous, but I think their Derby, at the very least their Derby payday, was last time. He’s going to be the clear cut favorite, say 3-1 or 7-2 and in a year that is completely wide open there is nothing better than getting the chalk out of the number. I’m trying to beat him on top but understand if you don’t.


14 – Mohaymen 10/1 Junior Alvarado (Debut) Kiaran McLaughlin (0-6)
Notes: I have never seen a bandwagon empty like his did in the minutes after he lost the epic, East versus West, battle of the undefeateds in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. He went from number one to number done. His rider has said he didn’t feel like the “real Mohaymen” as soon as he climbed aboard and his trainer has gone on the record saying he’s had two bad minutes, those two, in his entire career. That was a quirky track at Gulfstream that day. It rained, dried out, rained again. Quirky to say the least. Maybe he didn’t like it. Maybe it was something else. Maybe it was both. All I know is that the last time a McLaughlin runner lost a prep many thought he’d win it was last year with Frosted, who fell apart in the stretch of the Fountain of Youth. When he returned six weeks later, he rolled in the Wood Memorial. There aren’t many better at picking them apart, stripping them down and building them back up than Kiaran. With all of that said, he’s my pick to win Kentucky Derby 142!!!


15 – Outwork 15/1 John Velazquez (1-17) Todd Pletcher (1-43)
Notes: He’s a length away from being undefeated in his four starts and is already a G1 winner. He’s got speed, which only one or two others in here can brag about and sports connections that have literally won hundreds of races as a team. His pedigree, especially that Empire Maker dam, lead me to believe the distance shouldn’t be an issue and a front end trip, as long as he doesn’t get cooked in a duel with Danzing Candy, should make his job that much easier. If you’re looking for a knock, he beat a maiden in the slowest Wood Memorial ever run in its’ 92 year history last out and Pletcher, who won this in 2010 with Super Saver, has an abysmal record in the event. Still, he’s in the capable hands of Hall of Famer John Velazquez, who won the 2011 Derby aboard Animal Kingdom when this horse’s sire, Uncle Mo, was scratched days before the race, and he should get a dream trip. On all of my exotic tickets and some of my multi-race wagers.


16 – Shagaf 20/1 Joel Rosario (1-6) Chad Brown (0-1)
Notes: He won his first two starts around one turn impressively then grinded out a win in the Gotham over the maiden Laoban in his two turn debut when it appeared as if he didn’t like running inside horses. He saved ground again in the Wood Memorial but didn’t kick in through the stretch. Maybe it was the trip or the mud or his immaturity. This horse has talent and maybe that proverbial lightbulb just needs to go off. It’s tough to bank on that in here. I’ve thought for a while that he was a Belmont Stakes kind of horse – break, lay three lengths off the lead and make a sustained run – and maybe the best way to get him there is by running in here. New jock Rosario won this in 2013 so maybe he can wake him up. I don’t think he’ll be in the exacta but could be persuaded into using him on the bottom end of other exotics.


17 - Mor Spirit 12/1 Gary Stevens (3-21) Bob Baffert (4-26)
Notes: No horse has more accomplished human connections as Stevens won this in 1988, 1995 and in 1997 with Baffert trainee Silver Charm while Baffert won three others in 1998, 2002 and last year with American Pharoah. He’s already a G1 winner having taken the Los Alamitos Futurity, owns a won and a couple of seconds and runs like the distance shouldn’t be a problem. All the makings of a Derby winner, right? Wrong. I have NEVER liked this horse. I hate the way he travels and think he won the phoniest G1 race ever and has beaten up on weaker foes. When he runs into horses that have a smidge of talent, like Danzing Candy and Exaggerator, he proves to be no match. He’ll take a ton of money but not a dollar of it will be mine.


18 – Majesto 30/1 Emisael Jaramillo (Debut) Gustavo Delgado (Debut)
Notes: Tough to like this guy with just one win from six starts to his name. And you could have clocked him with an egg timer from the quarter pole home when he broke his maiden in start five. He parlayed a perfect trip into a second place finish in the Florida Derby last out. I wouldn’t be sold on him winning an entry level allowance contest at this point so I’m certainly not using him in here.


19 - Brody’s Cause 12/1 Luis Saez (0-3) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: I believe there are two horses for courses in here. Destin is one. He is the other. He LOVES Keeneland, having won both of his G1s, including the Blue Grass last out, there and finished third in the B.C Juvenile. He’s gotten great set ups in all three of those races as well. I don’t envision that happening here. Post shouldn’t hurt as he’ll be part of the cavalry in the latter part of the race but I don’t think he’s good enough. While I rate My Man Sam a chance, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance while Cherry Winer and Laoban are the two AEs in here because they didn’t have enough points to get in. That’s who he beat last time out. I know he broke his maiden over this course but that’s not enough to sway me. He can get a minor award, I guess, but I’m going to let him beat me.


20 - Danzing Candy 15/1 Mike Smith (1-21) Clifford Sise, Jr. (Debut)
Notes: I had a really tough time deciding what to do with this guy. Then my buddy Rob Toscano pointed out that the longer the run-ups to the first turn of his two turn races have been the faster he’s gone in the early going. If that pattern holds form, we’re in for a serious opening half mile or so as he’ll have around 3/8ths of a mile before he hits the first bend. Combine that with his trainer saying the things that made him come to Kentucky after an abysmal effort out in the Santa Anita Derby are “owners,” and his post draw and it made my decision much, much easier. I want nothing to do with him.


21 - Laoban (AE) Cornelio Velasquez (0-4) Eric Guillot. (Debut)
Notes: If he gets in he’ll break from an outside post, likely next to the controlling speed. As a fellow front runner, that doesn’t bode well. Oh, by the way, like Trojan Nation, he’s a maiden. No thanks.


22 – Cherry Wine (AE) Robby Albarado (0-14) Dale Romans (0-6)
Notes: He needs two to scratch to get in and I know a lot of people have been waiting for him to really strut his stuff. I don’t know where they’ve seen this “stuff” before because I’ve never been a fan but that’s what makes this world go around. I’ll pass

 

[CNOTES]

05/07/2016 @ 02:23 PM RAC May-07 CHU R12 1.00 USD TRI 9,13,14/5,9,11,13,14/5,9,11,13,14




05/07/2016 @ 02:24 PM RAC May-07 CHU R12 2.00 USD EXA 9,13,14/5,7,9,11,13,14




05/07/2016 @ 02:32 PM RAC May-07 CHU R12 5.00 USD EXX 5,15,18




05/07/2016 @ 02:45 PM RAC May-07 CHU R12 5.00 USD WPS 5,9,15