Cnotes 2016 Canadian Football League Picks-Trends-News !

[CNOTES]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 3
July 10, 2016

League Betting Notes


-- Underdogs went 2-1-1 SU in Week 3
-- Underdogs went 4-0 ATS in Week 3
-- Road teams posted a 2-1-1 SU record in Week 3
-- Road teams posted a 4-0 ATS record in Week 3
-- The 'Under' went 2-1-1 in Week 3




-- Ottawa (2-0-1) and Calgary (1-1-1) battled to a 26-26 tie in a great game in the nation's capital. It was the first non-cover for the RedBlacks all season, while the Stampeders covered for the second consecutive weekend. The Stamps are 0-2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in their past three games away from home including last season's playoffs.


-- After an impressive opening week win, Hamilton (1-2) tumbled into the basement with a surprising 28-24 setback against Winnipeg (1-2). The Tiger-Cats have averaged just 13.5 points per game after posting 42 in the opener, and they have allowed 28.0 PPG in the past two with the 'under' cashing in each game.


-- The Blue Bombers picked up their first win and cover, and their offense continues to improve each week. After opening with 14 points, they posted 22 points in Week 2 and 28 in Week 3. The 'under is 2-1 heading into their showdown with Edmonton (1-1).


-- Saskatchewan (0-2)'s rough ride continued in Edmonton Friday night, narrowly missing out on a breakthrough victory. While they covered against the Esks, the Roughriders haven't won in regulation in their past 15 road games, including the playoffs.


-- The BC Lions (2-1) tasted defeat for the first time this season, tumbling at home against Toronto (2-1). However, for the third straight week the 'under' cashed for the Lions.


-- After an opening week defeat, the Argos have won and covered in their past two games, both on the road. The 'under' also hit after an 'over' result in Week 1. Toronto covered has won and covered four straight regular season games on the road, and the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six away games including the postseason.

 

[CNOTES]

WEEK # 4 SCHEDULE


WEEK 4


Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Time (ET) Away Home
7:30 PM Ottawa Redblacks Toronto Argonauts


Thursday, July 14, 2016
Time (ET) Away Home
8:30 PM Edmonton Eskimos Winnipeg Blue Bombers


Friday, July 15, 2016
Time (ET) Away Home
7:30 PM Hamilton Tiger Cats Montreal Alouettes


Saturday, July 16, 2016
Time (ET) Away Home
7:00 PM British Columbia Lions Saskatchewan Roughriders

 

[CNOTES]

WEST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 BC 3 2 1 0 4 62 46 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-0-0


2 Calgary 3 1 1 1 3 80 68 1-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0


3 Edmonton 2 1 1 0 2 76 81 1-1-0 0-0-0 1-0-0


4 Winnipeg 3 1 2 0 2 64 82 0-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0


5 Saskatchewan 2 0 2 0 0 53 69 0-1-0 0-1-0 0-1-0





EAST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Ottawa 3 2 0 1 5 99 76 0-0-1 2-0-0 1-0-0


2 Toronto 3 2 1 0 4 75 73 0-1-0 2-0-0 0-1-0


3 Montreal 2 1 1 0 2 35 42 0-1-0 1-0-0 0-1-0


4 Hamilton 3 1 2 0 2 69 76 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0






y - Clinched Division
x - Clinched Playoff Berth

 

[CNOTES]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4


Week 3 Betting Recap


The new CFL regular season continues to heavily favor the underdog with a straight-up record of 8-2-1 and a very profitable 10-1 record against the spread through the first three weeks of play.


Last week’s action started with Winnipeg upsetting Hamilton 28-24 as a 10-point road underdog on Thursday night. Toronto followed suit later that night as a 4 ½-point underdog on the road in a 25-14 victory against British Columbia.


In a rare tie in the CFL, Calgary and Ottawa ended their Friday inter-division showdown knotted at 26 with the Stampeders covering as slight one-point road underdogs.


Also on Friday night’s slate, Edmonton was able to get past Saskatchewan 39-36 in overtime, but it could not cover the spread as a heavy 11 ½-point home favorite.


Wednesday, July 13[/B]

Ottawa RedBlacks (2-0-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -1
Total: 53

Game Overview


RedBlacks’ quarterback Trevor Harris leads the CFL in both passing yards (1,083) and passing touchdowns (9) and a big part of his early success in place of an injured Henry Burris can be attributed to the play of wide receiver Chris Williams. With 10 catches for 130 yards in last week’s loss, he has set a new CFL record for the most receiving yards in three games to start a season with 493.


Toronto got another solid effort from its quarterback Ricky Ray in its recent win against BC with 283 yards passing and a score. Ray completed 23-of-32 attempts in that game and on the year he has 751 passing yards and five scoring strikes behind an impressive completion percentage of 68.9 percent. Brandon Whitaker has done a good job on the ground with 139 rushing yards on 27 attempts for an average of 5.2 yards per carry.


Betting Trends


In four previous games against the expansion RedBlacks, Toronto holds a 4-1 edge SU with a 3-2 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in the last three meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Dunkel


Week 4




Wednesday, July 13


Ottawa @ Toronto


Game 301-302
July 13, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
120.383
Toronto
118.516
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(+1); Over


------------------


CFL
Long Sheet


Week 4


Wednesday, July 13


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OTTAWA (2 - 0 - 1) at TORONTO (2 - 1) - 7/13/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 3-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


-------------------

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Ottawa (2-0-1) @ Toronto (2-1)-- Argonauts won last four series games, scoring 34.3 ppg LY in wins vs Ottawa by 6-7-3 points. RedBlacks are 0-3 in Toronto, losing by 18-6-3. Ottawa tied Calgary in its home opener last week- they scored 36.5 ppg in winning first two road games by 15-8 points- the win at Edmonton was also in OT. Toronto won its last two games, in Vancouver/Regina, after losing home opener to Hamilton. Road teams are 9-2-1 vs spread in CFL this year.




---------------------


CFL


Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Wednesday, July 13


7:30 PM
OTTAWA vs. TORONTO
Ottawa is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Ottawa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home

 

[CNOTES]

PREVIEW
HARRIS RETURNS; FIRST PLACE ON THE LINE FOR ARGOS, REDBLACKS


TORONTO — At first glance, notching win number one at BMO Field on Wednesday night seems like a tall task for the Double Blue.


The Ottawa REDBLACKS airshow is in town this week, bringing with it the CFL’s only undefeated team, the league’s number one offence and the CFL-leading passer and receiver.


But while former Argo Trevor Harris and his go-to target Chris Williams are coming in hot, the Boatmen have built some momentum of their own. The Argos are one of the hottest teams in the CFL after sweeping a two-game set out west, teeing up a Week 4 mid-week duel for first in the East.


“It means a lot,” rookie defensive tackle Ken Bishop told Argonauts.ca of the Argos’ successful trip to the west coast. “It shows our comaraderie; it was good to get away from Toronto for a minute and get to know all the guys a little better.


“It was good for the team.”


After falling 42-20 in a long-anticipated season-opener at BMO Field, the Argos, in essence, went away early in July and have returned a changed team.


A 30-17 win in a highly-charged atmosphere for the Riders’ season-opener at Mosaic washed away that bitter taste from Week 1. Against the Lions, meanwhile, the Argos did everything right, staying patient throughout the first half and then striking in the second half with turnovers, timely scores and five field goals from Lirim Hajrullahu on the way to a 25-14 victory.


Suffice to say Head Coach Scott Milanovich got what he wanted out of his team after a season-opener to forget.


“That’s what I was looking for,” said Milanovich. “Some fight, some pride, some determination that we’re not going to let this thing linger; we’re going to get it turned around.”


The Argos scored two touchdowns early and never looked back against the Riders, then hit the Lions right where you’d least expect – on the ground. Brandon Whitaker rushed for 97 yards on 13 carries (7.5 per carry) and added 55 through the air on seven catches.


“Our coaches did a great job scheming the run game and our run game was getting a hat on a hat and blocking up some pretty good football players,” said Milanovich. “That should give us a lot more confidence in the run game – we were struggling a little bit.”


They’ll look to establish the ground game again against a REDBLACKS team that’s lost roughly half of its defence since appearing in the 103rd Grey Cup against the Edmonton Eskimos. They’ll also look to attack an Ottawa secondary that’ll be without veterans Forrest Hightower and Jerrell Gavins, who were both placed on the one-game injured list.


Still, even with Ricky Ray starting to settle into form (he threw for 283 yards and a touchdown in the win over BC), trying to keep up with the REDBLACKS’ high-octane offence is a losing cause. Rich Stubler’s defence will have to do something no other team has done this season: slow down Williams.


Williams is on pace to break records for receiving and all-purpose yards in a season, as his 164.3 yards per game put him on pace for 2,958 receiving yards. He seems to be finding his feet in his second season back in the CFL, last week burning the Stampeders’ secondary three times en route to a 26-26 tie.


Pressure on Harris key for Argos


Williams outruns Stamps’ defence for six


After their best defensive effort of the season against BC, the Argos know the key to stopping Williams is disrupting Harris.


“For us it’s all about communicating and knowing where [Williams] is at all times,” said cornerback A.J. Jefferson, who will make his first start of 2016 after being activated from the six-game injured list.


“Obviously Trevor is the guy that’s gonna get him the ball, so if we can put pressure on Trevor and make him make some bad decisions I don’t see why it would be a problem.”


Added Bishop: “I have faith in our corners, but as long as we get pressure on their quarterback – if he can’t get the ball to him then he can’t be effective.”


For the fans, Wednesday’s matchup brings plenty of on-field drama. It pits Harris against Ray for the first time after they were teammates last season, when Harris went 9-7 as a starter and led the league in touchdown passes before being sat in favour of Ray.


The Argos re-signed Ray in the off-season and according to all accounts also tried to re-sign Harris, who they say would’ve been given the opportunity to compete to start. But in the end the 30-year-old Harris signed a deal with Ottawa on the first day of free agency.


An injury to Henry Burris in Ottawa’s season-opening win put Harris in the spotlight and so far he’s thrived, leading the league with 1,083 yards and nine touchdowns to just one interception. His 80 per cent completion rate puts him at a record-breaking pace, while he’s thrown three touchdown passes in each of his last three games – a feat accomplished only eight times over the last 11 years.


“When you get put in a game with a bunch of thoroughbreds that we have up front and the receivers that are so dynamic like we have, it’s just one of those situations where the quarterback is playing really well but it’s a product of everything around me,” Harris told OttawaREDBLACKS.com. “I’m just grateful to be here with such a great group.”


Ottawa stormed out to a 2-0 start with a thrilling overtime win over Edmonton in Week 1 followed by a gutsy road win in Montreal in Week 2. The REDBLACKS couldn’t capitalize on multiple opportunities to win late in Week 3, including a late fumble on the goal line by Nic Grigsby and a dropped interception in overtime which forced them to settle for the first CFL tie since 2009.


“It is awkward, I think everybody in the stadium – the fans, the media, the coaches, the players – it kind of left you wanting more and more of a resolution,” said Campbell of the REDBLACKS’ home-opener.


“Guys were disappointed we didn’t make some plays to close out the game, but at the same time that point could be a factor, especially the way this league is playing out where everybody is going to be close in the standings – that point could be valuable for us so we’ve got that in our pocket.”


A short week and a road trip to Toronto makes for a tough Week 4 matchup, something the REDBLACKS have had to prepare for mentally more than anything.


“It’s more of a mental thing,” said SirVincent Rogers. “Just making sure we’re mentally in tune and we’re sharpening all the edges. We have to show up ready to compete.”


“We feel good on a short week,” added Damaso Munoz. “We did a lot more mental work this week getting our bodies ready for this game – it’s a big game.”


While Campbell acknowledges everyone could be close in the standings come late October, the REDBLACKS have a chance on Wednesday to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the East.


That’s what’s at stake in this one.


“We’re moving onto Toronto,” Campbell said. “We break our season down into phases and after this game it’s a natural cutoff for us as far as our first four games.


“If we can find a way to get this done and be 3-0-1 after four games it’d be a pretty good deal for us but it’s going to be tough.”


Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN or followed online via CFL.ca GameTracker.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL.CA GAME NOTES: A LOOK AT WEEK 4


TORONTO — Football almost every day of the week. That’s what’s on the table Week 4, with one game every day from Wednesday through Saturday.


It starts Wednesday night when Trevor Harris makes his highly-anticipated return to Toronto. There’s plenty of history between Harris and the Argos after the league-leading passer’s off-season departure to Ottawa, and the duel between him and Ray in this mid-week matchup at BMO is must-see TV.


On Thursday night a crucial early-season all-West affair kicks off in Winnipeg, where the Bombers and Eskimos are both coming off their first win of the season in Week 3 and looking to sustain some momentum. This exact point in the season is particularly important for Winnipeg, a team looking to establish itself as one of the big horses in the West.


Friday Night Football hits Montreal this week as a familiar rivalry between the Ticats and Alouettes unfolds for the first time this season at Percival-Molson Stadium. The Alouettes pulled off two of the bigger upsets in 2015 against the Ticats, while Hamilton looks to get back on track on the road following back-to-back losses at Tim Hortons Field.


Last but not least, the Lions and Riders square off in what’s been deemed this week’s marquee matchup. All eyes will be on the quarterbacks in BC, as Travis Lulay pushes Jonathon Jennings for playing time in the wake of the Lions’ first loss of the season to Toronto. Darian Durant meanwhile has shown little rust for the Riders, who many believe have played much better than their 0-2 record indicates under the direction of Chris Jones.


CFL-WIDE TRENDS


Airing it out: This year’s average of just 166 rushing yards per contest is the lowest rushing total per game in CFL history – over 79 per cent of total yards gained in 2016 have come by the pass. The rushing average has fallen by 23 per cent from 216 yards per game a recently as 2014.

Setting the pace: This year the REDBLACKS lead the CFL with 520.0 yards per game on offence. Only the 1956 Montreal Alouettes have averaged more net yards in a single season in CFL history – an average of 532.6 per game.


Setting the pace II: The single-season record for yards from scrimmage is held by Mike Pringle at 2,414 yards, or 134.1 per game (Baltimore 1994, Montreal 1998). Chris Williams is averaging 164.3 yards per game, all from his 25 catches. He is on pace for 2,958 receiving yards – well above the 2,036 yard record set by Allen Pitts in 1994. Williams is on pace for 150 receptions which would be 10 behind the record set by Derrell Mitchell in 1998 with 160.

Home vs Away wins: The visiting team has won eight of the 11 games thus far (72.7 per cent excluding the tie) and that is an unprecedented winning percentage by the visitors. Long-term visiting clubs have tended to win 40 per cent of the time.

TIE #100: Last week’s tie between Calgary and Ottawa was the 100th in league history dating back to the roots of the CFL in the east in 1907. In 5,403 games there had been 99 heading into 2016 with the last on Oct. 17, 2009 between Calgary and Saskatchewan at McMahon Stadium. It was Calgary’s 20th tie and for all Ottawa clubs their 18th.

Scoring, offence continue to rise: Both remain up after a strong rebound in 2015 over the standout defensive 2014 season. Net offence is up to 764 yards per game (13 per cent higher) based primarily on a 20 per cent increase in passing yards over last year’s 533 yards per game mark. Scoring on offence sits at 47.8 points per game, up 7.4 per cent over the 44.5 points per game mark in 2015.

Healthy quarterbacks: 10 different quarterbacks have started for nine different clubs this season, as eight out of nine clubs have started no more than one different QB so far and only Ottawa has split games (Henry Burris and Trevor Harris). Last year, 26 different starters were used across the CFL.


Reaching 120: Linebackers Ian Wild and Adam Bighill have each made 20-plus tackles thus far with Wild on top at 22.
Each is on pace to go 120-plus in 2016. Keon Raymond of Toronto has made a terrific all-round defensive contribution with 18 tackles, an interception and fumble return, two sacks and a pass knockdown.

 

[CNOTES]

ARGOS SEE STEADY PROGRESSION IN RICKY RAY


It was midway through the second quarter of the Toronto Argonauts’ game against the BC Lions last week when quarterback Ricky Ray made his familiar drop into the pocket and threw a dart to wide receiver Tori Gurley.


The play went for 28 yards and helped set up a tying field goal. In the fourth quarter Ray again found Gurley, this time hitting him with a 15-yard touchdown in the end zone, giving the Argos a 21-6 lead.


Neither pass will be remembered as the most spectacular in the CFL this season. But they were throws Ray used to wonder if he would ever make again as he battled to recover from a shoulder injury.


“The last couple of years have been tough, just trying to overcome some of the injuries,” said Ray, who completed 23 of 32 passes for 283 yards and a touchdown in Toronto’s 25-14 win over the previously unbeaten Lions.


“It’s nice to go out there and not have to deal with having the soreness and the pain I’ve had in the past. Just go out there and throw without any thinking of that.”


Gurley has seen a steady progression in Ray’s throwing.


“Whatever he did in the off-season is paying dividends,” said Gurley. “He is able to drive the ball and make every throw.


“He’s back.”


Ray has lived in a twilight zone the last three years. Many wondered if the 36-year-old from Happy Camp, Calif., would ever be the player that led teams to three Grey Cup Championships, most recently in 2012 with Toronto.


Ray played through shoulder pain for two seasons before surgery in November 2014 to repair a torn labrum in his right throwing shoulder and a small tear in his right rotator cuff. He missed most of last season recovering from the procedure before starting Toronto’s final two regular-season games and the 25-22 loss to Hamilton in the Eastern Semi-Final.


This off-season Ray spent time working with Tom House, a former major league pitcher who now tutors quarterbacks. The list of NFL quarterbacks House has worked with includes Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow.


“He teaches mechanics, how to use your body in sequence, different drills,” said Ray.


One of the lessons Ray learned is how to properly warmup his shoulder prior to practice or a game.


“Before I had the shoulder problems you’d just pick up the ball and start throwing,” said Ray. “Now I have to try and get my shoulders warmed up a little bit before I even pick up a ball.


“That’s just a product of getting older and having some shoulder problems. It just takes a little bit longer to get through that routine and get warmed up.”


Travis Lulay, the veteran Lions’ quarterback who came on in relief of starter Jonathan Jennings against Toronto, understands better than most the challenges Ray has faced.


Lulay, who has dealt with shoulder problems of his own the last two years, has also worked with House and follows a similar warmup regime as Ray.


“If I didn’t think it helped I wouldn’t do it,” said Lulay, who completed 12 of 15 passes for 156 yards, a touchdown and an interception against Toronto. “It’s part of my regular routine. I believe it’s been part of my shoulder coming back.”


Lulay is pleased to see Ray being productive again.


“I don’t think he’s fully comfortable yet,” he said. “It’s good to see him make the throws that he wants to make.


“I know all too well the path he has walked. It really is a physical grind (and) mentally it’s challenging. There are times you question if you will ever be able to do what you’ve always known how to do. “


In three games this season Ray has completed 62 of 90 passes for 751 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Against the Lions he became the fifth CFL quarterback to pass 53,000 yards in his career. He needs just 120 yards to pass Danny McManus’s 53,255 and move into fourth place in the CFL’s all-time passing list.


Toronto coach Scott Milanovich said Ray is improving every week. He chuckled when asked if it’s fair to expect the 2016 edition of Ricky Ray to be the same player that was the MVP of 2005 Grey Cup game.


“It’s probably unfair but I expect it too,” he said. “When he doesn’t play nearly perfect football we’re shocked, I’m shocked, he’s shocked.


“It’s because he has set the bar so high and we know what he is capable of. I still think he’s that guy. We will see it again.”


There’s still a lot of football to be played this year. The Argos (2-1) will face another challenge when they host the Ottawa REDBLACKS (2-0-1) this week at BMO Field.


Athletes often talk about focusing only on what they can control. So far this season Ray can focus on playing the game without spending time worrying over the health of his shoulder.


“It’s not that I don’t worry about it now,” he said. “It’s always something I’m going to have to get warmed up and makes sure I am doing all my pre-hab, taking care of it a little bit better at this point of my career.


“I haven’t had any problems. It’s been feeling good all through training camp and even into this part of the season. I am hoping it will continue to get better as the season goes along.”

 

[CNOTES]

WEST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 BC 3 2 1 0 4 62 46 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-0-0


2 Calgary 3 1 1 1 3 80 68 1-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0


3 Edmonton 2 1 1 0 2 76 81 1-1-0 0-0-0 1-0-0


4 Winnipeg 3 1 2 0 2 64 82 0-1-0 1-1-0 0-1-0


5 Saskatchewan 2 0 2 0 0 53 69 0-1-0 0-1-0 0-1-0




EAST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Ottawa 3 2 0 1 5 99 76 0-0-1 2-0-0 1-0-0


2 Toronto 3 2 1 0 4 75 73 0-1-0 2-0-0 0-1-0


3 Montreal 2 1 1 0 2 35 42 0-1-0 1-0-0 0-1-0


4 Hamilton 3 1 2 0 2 69 76 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0

 

[CNOTES]

7/8 - Friday's Totals: 1 - 2 - 1


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS RANK


ATS Picks 4-8-0 33.33% -2400


O/U Picks 5-6-1 45.45% -800




WEDNESDAY, JULY 13


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


OTT at TOR 07:30 PM


OTT +0.0


U 52.5

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, July 14


Edmonton Eskimos (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -3 ½
Total: 52 ½


Game Overview


The Eskimos had the stingiest defense in the league last season when it came to points allowed, but this unit has been torched for 81 points in its first two games. They have been able to pretty much keep pace on offense with 76 points behind the play of Mike Reilly at quarterback and John White running the ball. Reilly has thrown for 761 yards and five touchdowns while completing 71.4 percent of his 77 passing attempts. White is tied for third in the league in rushing yards (139) and he has two rushing touchdowns so far.


Winnipeg closed out the 2015 season with just two SU wins in its last 12 games and after dropping its first two contests this season both SU and against the spread, last week’s win was quite a surprise. Credit the play of quarterback Drew Willy for pacing that win. He went 32-for-42 throwing the ball and ended the day with 279 passing yards and one scoring throw. Also credit the Blue Bombers’ defense for sacking Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli four times and picking him off twice.


Betting Trends


Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall, but it falls to just 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games against Winnipeg. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 11 of the last 15 meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

Thursday, July 14


Edmonton @ Winnipeg


Game 303-304
July 14, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
111.283
Winnipeg
112.788
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 1 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 3
54
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(+3); Under


----------------



Thursday, July 14


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


EDMONTON (1 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 2) - 7/14/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Edmonton (1-1) @ Winnipeg (1-2)-- Eskimos split first two games, with both going to OT and going over total- they scored 38 ppg, are on road for first time this year. Edmonton won its last six games vs Winnipeg (5-1 vs spread); under is 11-5-1 in last 17 series games. Winnipeg lost its last eight visits here (0-5 vs spread in last five); Bombers got first win in three games at Hamilton LW- they lost 22-14 to Montreal in their home opener.


-----------------------


CFL


Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




Thursday, July 14


8:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. WINNIPEG
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Winnipeg's last 18 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Edmonton


-----------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

PREVIEW


BOMBERS LOOK FOR MOMENTUM, TWO IN A ROW VS. ESKS


WINNIPEG — For the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, Thursday night’s tilt against the defending Grey Cup Champs is less of a measuring stick than it is about momentum.


The Bombers know what they’ll be up against when they take to Investors Group Field to face the Edmonton Eskimos in an all-West duel. Not only are the Eskimos coming off a 14-4 season that ended with a win in late November; they’ve also got one of the league’s most explosive offences out of the gate in 2016.


“[The Bombers] understand what they’re getting themselves into, that’s for sure,” Head Coach Mike O’Shea told BlueBombers.com. “[The Eskimos have] got a good offence; they’ve got a number of top-notch players and I think that’s exciting for any defensive player.


“I think our guys are ready.”


Add to that the fact that the Bombers have been outscored 183-72 in six straight losses to the Eskimos and it’s hard to think of Thursday’s game as anything but a measuring stick – a way to see just how far this new-look Bombers squad has come over the last year.


Yet for a Winnipeg team that’s gone over a year since scoring 30 points in a game and nearly two years since winning two games in a row, nothing matters more than momentum.


For the Bombers, building on last week’s spirited 28-24 win over Hamilton with a victory at home is a must.


“We’ve got to prove that we’re a good football team,” said first-year Bomber and defensive tackle Keith Shologan. “And we’ve got to build on that confidence from last week, too.


“Nothing is set is stone as to what kind of football team we’re going to be. The only way we can decide that is by winning football games.”


That’s all that’s left to do for the Bombers, a team that came into 2016 amid plenty of hype following a very busy off-season from General Manager Kyle Walters. But after high-profile signings like Andrew Harris, Weston Dressler and Ryan Smith, among others, the season didn’t start according to plan. The Bombers fell behind early on the way to losses to Montreal and Calgary, digging themselves an 0-2 hole.


For some fans it was ‘here we go again’, but for the Bombers to be successful at home they need to rebuild that home advantage. That requires a boisterous crowd at their back.


“If I was a fan, I’d probably be the same way,” said Shologan. “But as a player, I know we can be good, we just need to build some wins and build some confidence.”


Week 3’s win over the Ticats was an excellent starting point. The Bombers went into a tough place to play and pitched a fourth-quarter shutout along with six turnovers in the game, earning a down-to-the wire victory. In a microcosm of the full 60 minutes, defensive end Adrian Hubbard forced Ticats quarterback Jeremiah Masoli to fumble on the game’s last possession, then recovered the ball to seal the deal.


If that was a must-win game, how the Bombers follow up is just as important. A win puts them at 2-2 and in contention in the highly-competitive West, where every team has at least one loss next to its name. A loss and they’re right back where they were.


“We know we’re playing a good team,” said quarterback Drew Willy, who threw for 279 yards and a touchdown in the win and sits second in the league with 940 passing yards.


“They are the defending Grey Cup Champs. We know we need to be ready.”


Return man Quincy McDuffie will not play due to injury while Kevin Fogg is expected to handle return duties for the Bombers. C.J. Roberts will make his debut at corner, with Fogg shifting over to defensive half.


While the Bombers are looking to ramp up the intensity and pick up momentum heading home, the Eskimos’ heart rates may still be through the roof given the short week and the team’s recent 39-36 thrilling overtime victory over the Riders.


A wild back-and-forth affair against former head coach Chris Jones saw the Eskimos blow a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter to trail with just 19 seconds left. But after Mike Reilly quickly rallied the offence to set up a game-tying 52-yard field goal from Sean Whyte, the Eskimos took the lead on a field goal in overtime before sealing the deal with a stop on third and a yard.


“The challenge is getting ourselves back up for this game,” cornerback Patrick Watkins told Eskimos.com. “We just came off a win. It’s easy to be complacent coming off a win. Knowing that we have a short week, we’re going to have to work harder and learn faster to be where we need to be.”


Reilly threw for 378 yards and four touchdown passes in the win, while Adarius Bowman had his best game of the season to date with six catches for 141 yards and three touchdowns, earning him Shaw Top Performer this week.


Meanwhile, in his first season back from a torn Achilles, John White has rushed for 139 yards and two touchdowns in two games while added 63 yards on nine catches through the air.


But while the Esks’ offence has been high-octane, the defence has not made the same seamless transition under Defensive Coordinator Mike Benevides along with several other new faces on the defensive side of the ball.


The Eskimos have allowed 81 points in two games and a league-worst 459 yards against per game, meaning they’ll have to be better against a Bomber offence capable of creating big plays from anyone on the field.


“They’re a tough physical team,” said Head Coach Jason Maas. “They get after the quarterback. (Offensive Coordinator Paul LaPolice) has their quarterbacks playing at a high level. They spread the ball around a lot to their backs and their receivers. They’re a challenge.”


“(Willy) has a lot of talent around him,” added Watkins. “If you look across the board, with the two new receivers Dressler and Smith, he has tons of talent. It’s going to be a good one.


“We have to do what we do best. Try to confuse people, fly around to the ball and make sure of our tackles.”


The Eskimos will look to get pressure on Willy and improve on their league-low two sacks this season, while Reilly will try and keep the offence in tip top shape on the road in Winnipeg.


Kickoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN or followed online via CFL.ca GameTracker.

 

[CNOTES]

7/14 - Wednesday's Totals: 2 - 0


June July Totals


WLT PCT UNITS RANK


ATS Picks 5-8-0 38.46% -1900


O/U Picks 6-6-1 50.00% -300



THURSDAY, JULY 14


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


EDM at WPG 08:30 PM


WPG +3.5


U 55.0

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, July 15


Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -1
Total: 49.5


Game Overview


The Tiger-Cats will look to quickly bounce back from a poor effort last week against a familiar East Division foe in Montreal. They are going to have to find a way to get more out of a running game that only managed to gain 44 yards against Winnipeg. Chad Owens and Andrew Fantuz continue to light things up in the passing game with a combined 12 receptions for 181 yards and two scores in last week’s loss.


Montreal had the week off after starting season with a road win against Winnipeg as an underdog followed by a loss to Ottawa in a game that closed as a PICK. The total has stayed UNDER in both of those contests. The Alouettes have failed to cover ATS in eight of their last 10 games in Week 4 and with the loss in Week 2 they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. Kevin Glenn should get the start at quarterback after throwing for 591 yards and two scores in his first two games.


Betting Trends


Hamilton has won three of its last five games against Montreal SU, but it has failed to cover ATS in seven of its last 10 games in this East Division rivalry. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

CFL
Dunkel


Week 4


Friday, July 15


Hamilton @ Montreal


Game 305-306
July 15, 2016 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
112.670
Montreal
110.212
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 2 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(+1 1/2); Over


-----------------------


CFL
Long Sheet


Week 4


HAMILTON (1 - 2) at MONTREAL (1 - 1) - 7/15/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-3 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-3 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


-----------------


CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Hamilton (1-2) @ Montreal (1-1)-- Alouettes split first two games, losing 28-13 to Ottawa in its home opener- they had last week off. LY, Als are 3-5 in last eight games with Hamilton. TiCats lost four of last five visits here, winning 23-11 (-3) in last visit LY. Under is 7-2 in last nine series games, overall and in last nine games played here. Hamilton allowed 25.3 ppg in losing two of its first three games, losing 28-3/28-24 last two weeks.


-----------------------------------


CFL


Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------


Friday, July 15


7:30 PM
HAMILTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Hamilton's last 7 games on the road
Montreal is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 8 games when playing at home against Hamilton

 

[CNOTES]

CFL


Friday, July 15


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's CFL betting preview and odds: Tiger-Cats at Alouettes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


QB Kevin Glenn missed practice early in the week, but is expected to suit up for the Als vs. the Ti-Cats. Montreal is currently 1.5-point pups.


Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes (+1.5, 46.5)


The Montreal Alouettes hope to overcome their injury woes when they host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Friday. The Alouettes lost wide receiver S.J. Green to a season-ending knee injury while running back Tyrell Sutton (knee) and slotback Kenny Stafford (toe) were placed on the six-game injured list following the team's 28-13 loss to the Ottawa Redblacks.


Montreal also is likely to be without Duron Carter, who was handed a one-game suspension for knocking down Ottawa coach Rick Campbell after celebrating a touchdown catch in front of the Redblacks' bench, unless he is cleared to play while he continues the appeal process. Hamilton is heading in the wrong direction after a disappointing 28-24 home loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Tiger-Cats received a major boost with the news that Zach Collaros was taken off the six-game injured list and participated in practice for the first time since tearing the ACL in his right knee on Sept. 9. Hamilton has dropped six of its last nine regular-season games since Collaros went down but likely will have to wait another week before its star quarterback is ready to contribute as coach Kent Austin confirmed he will not play against the Alouettes.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, RDS


LINE HISTORY: The Als opened as 1-point home pups, but quickly jumped the fence to sit at -1, where they remained for most of the week. Since then however, it has been all Ti-Cats money, with the line moving to a Pick, then back to the opening number of Als +1, to the current number of +1.5.


The total has also seen a bit of movement since opening at 49.5, getting bet down all the way to 46.5 before coming back a bit to the current number of 47. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Kevin Glenn, who threw for 259 yards and a touchdown in the loss to Ottawa, missed practice with an inflamed eye but is expected to recover in time to face Hamilton. Brandon Rutley will replace Sutton in the backfield while wide receivers Chandler Jones and Corbin Louks were activated from the practice roster and will see their first action of the season. "If you have multiple injuries - it doesn't matter what position - you're going to struggle," Montreal coach Jim Popp told reporters. "You structure your roster where you feel it's best, and it's not always about your starters."


ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Jeremiah Masoli completed 29-of-39 passes for 367 yards and two touchdowns but committed five of Hamilton's six turnovers as he fumbled three times and was picked off twice in the loss to Winnipeg. "I think Jeremiah has done a great job," Collaros told reporters."But there are things that you see sometimes and can't do anything about, and it's frustrating." Third-string quarterback Jake Waters was shipped off to the Saskatchewan Roughriders to make room for former Notre Dame and Florida State quarterback Everett Golson, who was moved to the active roster.


TRENDS:


* Tiger-Cats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last four road games.
* Under is 8-2 in Alouettes last 10 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this Eastern Division matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Als a slight edge as 1.5-point home pups. As for the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the Over.


EXTRA POINTS:


* The Alouettes have won 18 of their last 19 meetings SU with the Tiger-Cats in Montreal.
* Masoli leads the CFL with four interceptions.
* The last three meetings have been decided by an average margin of six points.

 

[CNOTES]

Trends - Hamilton at Montreal

ATS TRENDS


Hamilton


Tiger-Cats are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
Tiger-Cats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 Friday games.
Tiger-Cats are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Montreal


Alouettes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Alouettes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in July.
Alouettes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Alouettes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Alouettes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Alouettes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4.
Alouettes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. East.
Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.




OU TRENDS


Hamilton


Over is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last 4 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Tiger-Cats last 4 games in July.
Under is 7-1 in Tiger-Cats last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Tiger-Cats last 5 games following a bye week.
Under is 21-6 in Tiger-Cats last 27 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 8-3 in Tiger-Cats last 11 games in Week 4.
Under is 35-17 in Tiger-Cats last 52 games overall.


Montreal


Under is 4-0 in Alouettes last 4 games in July.
Under is 6-1 in Alouettes last 7 Friday games.
Under is 8-2 in Alouettes last 10 home games.
Under is 25-8 in Alouettes last 33 vs. East.
Under is 17-6 in Alouettes last 23 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 11-4 in Alouettes last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 22-8 in Alouettes last 30 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-2 in Alouettes last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Alouettes last 7 games in Week 4.


HEAD TO HEAD


Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Montreal.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Tiger-Cats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

 

[CNOTES]

PREVIEW


ALOUETTES SEARCH FOR FIRST WIN AT HOME VS. TICATS


MONTREAL — Heading into the Montreal Alouettes’ Week 4 tilt against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, the Als will be missing their starting quarterback and two of their top receivers, leaving everyone to wonder – can they still get the job done?


With starting pivot Kevin Glenn sitting out of Friday night’s game with an inflamed eye, it will be Rakeem Cato who will take over the Als’ offence, hoping to find a spark among the depleting receiving corps.


Cato will be without S.J. Green, who is out for the season with a knee injury, and Kenny Stafford, who was placed on the six-game injured list.


Duron Carter will be an option on Friday night, as he is expected to play this week while his one-game suspension is still pending an appeal. In Carter’s first two games this season, he has 11 catches for 132 yards and one touchdown and three carries for 47 yards rushing.


Making sure the Als keep their focus on who’s in the game, and not who’s out, will be essential to pulling out the win.


“Regardless who plays, our goal remains the same: ensure that the opposition does not score a touchdown and that their possessions end with a kick – either a field goal attempt or a punt,” safety Marc-Olivier Brouillette told MontrealAlouettes.com. “So, whoever is injured or on the sidelines, our mindset does not change.”


Cato and company will take on the Tiger-Cats’ tough defence that has allowed the lowest average yards per play of any team this season. Their opponents are averaging just 5.2 yards per play and are second in defence at just 303 yards per game allowed.


Linebacker Simoni Lawrence has been a large part of Hamilton’s defensive success. He currently sits seventh in the league with 18 tackles, two sacks and one interception returned for a touchdown. Keeping Lawrence under control will be vital for Montreal if they want to make sure Cato can get comfortable in his first game.


Back in Week 2, Montreal squared off against Trevor Harris and his high-octane offence and was handed their first loss of the season in their home opener. This week, they’ll look to get their first win on home turf against a struggling Tiger-Cat club.


Since their Week 1 victory against the Toronto Argonauts, the Ticats have lost two games in a row, both in their home stadium – a place that was once a nightmare for opposing teams. The first of the two losses was to BC, where the Ticats only managed to score three points, the second was a better effort but they ultimately lost 28-24 to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.


“We’re focused on us and playing Ticat football,” Owens told Ticats.ca. “We haven’t shown that since Week 1. We’re trying to get back to that. Maybe being on the road, that’s going to be the time for us to be able to do that because we have to.”


The Tabbies did, however, get some good news this week with starting quarterback Zach Collaros participating in practice and being removed from the six-game injured list.


But, with the timeline of Collaros’ return unknown, the ‘Cats will still look to Jeremiah Masoli to lead the charge.


“Historically, we have always had very good games against Hamilton,” said Brouillette. “It’s certain that the loss of Collaros at the start of last season affected them somewhat, but Masoli is an experienced player and an extremely dangerous athlete. We’ll have to give a really strong effort if we want to win this game.”


That strong effort has to emerge on both offensive and defensive sides of the ball, but especially when Hamilton’s star receivers are on the field.


Montreal’s defence will have the task of containing the trio of Andy Fantuz, Luke Tasker and Owens who are all in the top eight receivers in the league. Fantuz has 21 receptions for 245 yards and a league-leading 11 second down conversion catches so far this season. Tasker has 23 catches for 242 yards and Owens has 17 for 228 yards and two touchdowns.


If Montreal can figure out a way to get its new-looking offence clicking and can capitalize on a Hamilton offence that turned the ball over six times last week, the Als will have a good chance at improving their record to 2-1.


“The offence, the defence and special teams have to execute during the game,” running back Brandon Rutley told MontrealAlouettes.com. “If the three units do their job, we’ll have a victory under our belts in front of our home fans.”


Cato will look to get his first win of the season for the Alouettes in place of star quarterback Glenn, and Masoli will hope to lead his Ticats back into the win column on the road.


Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN or followed online via CFL.ca GameTracker.

 

[CNOTES]

WEST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Edmonton 3 2 1 0 4 96 97 1-1-0 1-0-0 2-0-0


2 BC 3 2 1 0 4 62 46 1-1-0 1-0-0 1-0-0


3 Calgary 3 1 1 1 3 80 68 1-0-0 0-1-1 1-1-0


4 Winnipeg 4 1 3 0 2 80 102 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-2-0


5 Saskatchewan 2 0 2 0 0 53 69 0-1-0 0-1-0 0-1-0






EAST DIVISION


RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV


1 Ottawa 4 3 0 1 7 129 96 0-0-1 3-0-0 2-0-0


2 Toronto 4 2 2 0 4 95 103 0-2-0 2-0-0 0-2-0


3 Montreal 2 1 1 0 2 35 42 0-1-0 1-0-0 0-1-0


4 Hamilton 3 1 2 0 2 69 76 0-2-0 1-0-0 1-0-0