From Dodgers to A's, ranking title chances of MLB's 10 playoff teams
September 29, 2014 4:03 pm ET
If MLB wanted parity, well, here it is.
Any of the 10 postseason teams can legitimately win the World Series, though it obviously will be quite a bit harder for the wild-card teams, which have to win an extra round and also have to use their ace to get past that wild-card game (or cross their fingers with a No. 2-type pitcher in Pittsburgh's case) and contend with less rest.
The Dodgers, by virtue of having all-time great Clayton Kershaw in his peak, plus a superb second guy in Zack Greinke , are a World Series favorite. As are the Nationals, who topped off a spectacular finish for their rotation (an ERA under 1 over the final 13 starts) with Jordan Zimmermann's franchise-first no-hitter in the season finale.
It's still close to a crapshoot, with any of the 10 being at least something of a World Series threat -- though the A's obviously will have to snap out of their six-week offensive funk to have a realistic chance. Here's how I see the fabulous final 10 (with odds to win the World Series included).
1. Dodgers: If Hyun-Jin Ryu's shoulder is OK, and LA says it thinks it will be, the Dodgers have the best rotation. They may also have the best closer in the playoffs in Kenley Jansen, who features the best cutter this side of Mariano Rivera. Manager Don Mattingly helped get all the egos on the $230 million payroll into October, and it's unlikely to be as big of an issue in the playoffs, where the games mean more. It will, of course, help if Yasiel Puig can get back to his first-half heroics, but the Dodgers, who still scored more than anyone in September (156 runs), should have enough offense with Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp and a hot Adrian Gonzalez. Last year's playoff experience should help, too. Odds to win the World Series: 4-1.
2. Nationals: Zimmermann's gem put a bow on a spectacular finish for an extremely solid, sound team. Stephen Strasburg finally gets his chance at the postseason, and Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez round out an excellent rotation that posted an MLB-best 3.04 ERA. The one issue was at closer, where rookie manager Matt Williams tabbed Drew Storen to take over for struggling Rafael Soriano and is doing well. The bitter taste from 2012 could provide extra impetus. Odds to win the World Series: 5-1.
3. Angels: There is no question LA2 was the best team in the regular season, and it kept right on going after losing ace Garrett Richards, so the hope for a Freeway World Series is very real. C.J. Wilson is a playoff worry, and so is the rotation depth (Hector Santiago is the fourth starter if they decide to use one), but this team is a rare one in 2014 with such a dangerous offense (their 773 runs topped MLB) that it could blow teams out. Mike Trout is the best position player in the game, and the rest of the lineup isn't bad either. They can't count on the oft-injured Josh Hamilton, but Kole Calhoun is a not-so-secret weapon. Odds to win the World Series: 6-1.
4. Tigers: As usual, they didn't seem to quite play to their potential in the regular season, but their rotation of stars makes them a serious threat. There are issues, most prominently the bullpen, which has struggled (Detroit's 4.29 pen ERA was 27th) and doesn't have a dominating closer (though veteran Joe Nathan saved an above-average 83 percent of chances despite diminished stuff). If Miguel Cabrera isn't quite 100 percent, he's still a threat, and along with Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez, they give the Tigers a strong middle of the order. Their 757 runs trailed only the Angels. They're not as strong in center field without Austin Jackson, and now Rajai Davis has a leg issue. The young left side of the infield is only serviceable. One of these years they're going to win it all. Odds to win the World Series: 7-1.
5. Orioles: Although there's no ace, their pitching still is better than folks think. Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris and Miguel Gonzalez all threw well this year. The bullpen was excellent, with Zach Britton often dominating as closer and Darren O'Day and Andrew Miller providing a superb righty-lefty setup combo. There's a temptation to wonder what might have been with Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis (who can re-enter mid-ALCS), but the offense was still strong, thanks to surprise contributions from journeymen Steve Pearce and Caleb Joseph for a while, plus lots of home runs (MLB-best 211). Nobody did a better job than manager Buck Showalter. Odds to win the World Series: 9-1.
6. Cardinals: This is their usual time to shine, and perhaps they will do it again. But their offense looked a lot better last year when Carlos Beltran was going strong. Without Beltran (he was missed more than even Albert Pujols, as it turned out, though he wasn't the same player for the Yankees), they struggled at the plate, amassing only 619 runs, good for only 24th in MLB. The Jhonny Peralta signing proved to be a boon, and they obviously have a lot of playoff experience. Adam Wainwright had his usual superb year, and Lance Lynn got much better, but 2013 postseason sensation Michael Wacha's no longer a secret (and his health situation is a bit of a question mark this time). Odds to win the World Series: 10-1.
7. Giants: With Madison Bumgarner going Wednesday, they have a slight pitching advantage in the wild-card matchup at Pittsburgh, and they've surprised us before (twice, in fact, 2010 and '12). They'll have to do it without Matt Cain and a diminished Tim Lincecum. But they helped themselves in the second half by adding a rejuvenated Jake Peavy and calling up rookie second baseman Joe Panik. Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey are veteran October contributors, and it's a good sign Hunter Pence has become an inspirational leader. Odds to win the World Series: 20-1.
8. Pirates: Nobody is hotter lately than Pittsburgh, though of course the extra game without Gerrit Cole starting against the clutch Giants doesn't help. Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Russell Martin all had superb seasons, they work counts (.330 on-base percentage, third in MLB) and they seem to have something special going again. A tough out. Odds to win the World Series: 20-1.
9. Royals: What a story it would be if the Royals could win the World Series after not making the playoffs 28 straight seasons. But that will be a tall task, of course. They rely on defense, speed and an excellent bullpen, so if they have the lead after six, they are exceptionally tough. James Shields is a great ace, Yordano Ventura is a big-time talent and Alex Gordon is much better than his raw offensive numbers, but this team has trouble scrounging up runs. Mike Moustakas seems like an automatic out at times, and Salvador Perez has been that way for some of the second half. Both players are keys to the excellent defense, of course. Odds to win the World Series: 22-1.
10. Athletics: They still have baseball's best run differential, and they have a very fine rotation. However, they've been having trouble coming by runs for weeks and had to go right until game No. 162 to lock down the spot over Seattle following an August and September slump. It's a good thing they made that trade for ace Jon Lester, as Yoesnis Cespedes wouldn't have been able to spare them from their offensive funk and Lester gives them a decent chance to win at least the wild-card game. But they are going to need someone from among Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie and Coco Crisp to start hitting if they are going to get very far. Odds to win the World Series: 25-1.
