Cnotes 2014 - 2015 NFL Playoff Thread Thru the Super Bowl News, Notes,Trends, Stats & More !

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 17


December 28, 2014




Overall Notes


NFL WEEK 17 RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-4
Against the Spread 7-9
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 6-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-11


NFL OVERALL RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 167-82-1
Against the Spread 119-127-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 141-108-1
Against the Spread 121-125-4
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 114-135-4


Biggest Favorite to Cash


Denver (-16) bounced back from last Monday's loss to crush Oakland, 47-14 for its third division title in three seasons with Peyton Manning at quarterback.


Biggest Underdog to Cash


Cleveland (+14) hung around with Baltimore in spite of rookie Connor Shaw making first career start at quarterback. The Browns were tied with the Ravens, 3-3 at halftime, but Baltimore pulled away in the second half for a 20-10 win.


Home/Away


Through 15 games, the home team went 8-7 straight up and 5-10 against the spread.

Win Total Tickets


Four teams jumped ‘over’ the win total expectations set by oddsmakers in Week 16.


Denver (12-4) – Over 11
Kansas City (9-7) – Over 8.5
Philadelphia (10-6) – Over 9
Seattle (12-4) – Over 11


RESULTS


Shut it Down


The Bills (+4.5) knocked off the Patriots for just the third time since 2003 in a 17-9 victory at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady was pulled in the second half to rest, while Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman each were inactive for New England, as the Bills won at Gillette Stadium for the first time in 13 tries.


Point-Spreads Matter


Houston (-8.5) needed a win and some help to get into the playoffs, but the Texans fell short of the postseason for the second straight season. Jacksonville lost at Houston, 23-17, but the Jaguars closed the season with back-to-back covers.

Minnesota (-7) managed to finish the season at 7-9 by beating Chicago, but the Bears covered in a 13-9 loss. In spite of Chicago dropping to 5-11, the Bears cashed as underdogs in each of the final two games of the season.


New Orleans (-6) capped off a disappointing campaign by rallying past the Buccaneers, 23-20 to avoid a 10-loss season. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 20-7 lead, but New Orleans scored the final 16 points of the game as the Bucs failed to win a home game this season.


San Francisco (-6.5) sent Jim Harbaugh off a winner in his final game as head coach of the 49ers, but the Cardinals captured their 11th cover of the season in a 20-17 defeat. Following three seasons playing for the NFC Championship, the Niners finished in third place with an 8-8 record, while covering just six times this season.


NFC South Blowout


Carolina put a seven-game winless streak earlier in the season behind them as the Panthers (+3) celebrated their second straight division title by blasting the Falcons, 24-3. Atlanta suffered its first loss to a division opponent this season in six tries, while Carolina managed to beat all three NFC South rivals on the road.


Locking up Byes


The Packers and Seahawks will rest the opening weekend in the NFC playoffs as each team picked up double-digit home victories. Green Bay (-8) won the NFC North title for the fourth straight season by holding off Detroit, 30-20 to send the Lions on the road to Dallas next weekend. Seattle (-11) struggled early against St. Louis, but the Seahawks will have home-field advantage until the Super Bowl after taking care of the Rams, 20-6.


Playoff Notes


Below is a quick look at the seeds for the 2014-15 playoffs.


AFC


1) New England
2) Denver
3) Pittsburgh
4) Indianapolis
5) Cincinnati
6) Baltimore


NFC


1) Seattle
2) Green Bay
3) Dallas
4) Carolina
5) Arizona
6) Detroit




Totals


Sunday’s early action saw the ‘under’ go 6-4, while the late games produced a 3-2 mark to the 'under.'


Overall, the 'under' went 4-2 games with totals listed at 42.5 or below.


The Jets-Dolphins matchup cashed the 'over' minutes into the third quarter, as New York outlasted Miami, 37-24 on a 41 total.


Detroit cashed the 'over' for the first time in eight road games this season in a 30-20 loss at Green Bay, as the Lions scored a late touchdown to produce the 'over.'


Tampa Bay finished its home slate with a 7-1 mark to the 'under'. The Buccaneers actually put up their highest output at Raymond James Stadium with 20 points, but it all came in the first half of a 23-20 defeat to New Orleans on a 46 total.

 

[CNOTES]

2014 NFL Playoff Betting Results


December 28, 2014




Share
NFL PLAYOFF BETTING RESULTS
Wager Favorites-Underdogs Home-Away
Straight Up - -
Against the Spread - -
Total
Over-Under -
Wild Card Round


SATURDAY, JAN. 3


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Arizona Carolina - - -


Baltimore Pittsburgh - - -




SUNDAY, JAN. 4


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Cincinnati Indianapolis - - -


Detroit Dallas - - -




Divisional Playoff Round


SATURDAY, JAN. 10


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


BAL/CIN/PIT/IND New England - - -


DET/ARI/CAR Seattle - - -




SUNDAY, JAN. 11


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


DAL/CAR/ARI Green Bay - - -


CIN/PIT/IND Denver - - -




Championship Round


SUNDAY, JAN. 18


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


TBD TBD - - -


TBD TBD - - -




SUPER BOWL XLIX


SUNDAY, FEB. 1


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


AFC winner NFC winner - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Seahawks faves to win Super Bowl heading to playoffs


With the playoff field set for the 2014-15 NFL playoffs, we take a look at the odds for the remaining teams to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy at season's end.


The defending champion Seattle Seahawks ended the season winning six straight games and enter the playoffs as the favorite to win their second consecutive title at 9/4, according to the Westgate LV Superbook.


The Patriots are next up at 9/2, followed by the Packers at 5/1, the Broncos at 6/1 and the Cowboys at 10/1. The Steelers and Colts are on the board at 20/1, the Ravens at 30/1, the Lions, Panthers and Bengals at 40/1 and the Cardinals round out the field at 75/1.

 

[CNOTES]

Lions' Suh suspended for playoff game


December 29, 2014


NEW YORK (AP) - Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has been suspended for this Sunday's wild-card playoff game against Dallas for a violation of safety-related playing rules against Green Bay in the season finale.


The league announced Monday that Suh was suspended for stepping on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers' left leg twice, once with each foot. Suh also applied pressure and pushed off Rodgers' unprotected leg with his left foot, violating unnecessary roughness rules, the league said in a statement.


Suh, who will be reinstated next Monday, can appeal the suspension within three days. He can ask for an expedited appeal, which would be heard by Ted Cottrell, a hearing officer employed by the NFL and the players' union. No hearing is scheduled, but one could happen as soon as Tuesday.


Rodgers had an agitated look after the incident, and coach Mike McCarthy said after the game: ''There's no place for that. I don't understand it, frankly.''


On Monday, McCarthy backed off a bit, saying: ''I was hoping this wouldn't go this way. That was a hell of a football game played yesterday, and that's what I really came here to talk about. I'm not here to talk about behavior (of) players on other teams.''


Suh is a repeat offender with a long list of fines and one previous suspension, for two games in 2011 for stepping on the right arm of Packers lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith. Suh has been fined seven times in his career, but this is the first in 2014.


Suh was fined $100,000 for an illegal block on Vikings center John Sullivan in Week 1 of 2013 during an interception return. That was the largest fine in NFL history for on-field conduct, not counting suspensions.


The suspension was imposed by Merton Hanks, the NFL's vice president of football operations. Hanks ruled that Suh engaged in a non-football act which placed his opponent at unnecessary risk of injury.


In his letter to Suh, Hanks wrote, ''You did not respond in the manner of someone who had lost his balance and accidentally contacted another player who was lying on the ground. This illegal contact, specifically the second step and push off with your left foot, clearly could have been avoided.''


Hanks further noted ''you unnecessarily stepped on your opponent's unprotected leg as he lay on the ground unable to protect himself.''


Suh will not be permitted to attend team meetings and functions, attend or watch practices, appear at the club's facilities for any reason, or have contact with any club personnel except to arrange off-site medical treatment or rehabilitation.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys open as touchdown faves vs. Lions

It took until late Sunday night for the entire NFL playoff picture to develop. But it’ll take a little bit longer to fully determine the opening lines for Wild Card playoff weekend, thanks to key injuries suffered by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals in that Sunday night clash.

Pittsburgh fended off Cincinnati 27-17 as 3-point home chalk to claim the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed. And as a reward gets to host another division rival – sixth-seeded Baltimore – Saturday. The Steelers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) have won and covered four in a row, but standout running back Le’Veon Bell suffered a knee injury during the win over the Bengals.

The Ravens (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) capped the regular season with a 20-10 home win over Cleveland, failing to cash as hefty 14-point faves.

Bell’s injury initially forced John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, to hold off on setting a firm line, but after some deliberation the book set the Steelers as 3-point home chalk. As of Monday, Bell's status for the matchup was still uncertain.

“These are two teams that are obviously extremely familiar with each other, and as I’ve said before, it seems like the home team wins this matchup more often than not,” Lester said.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-4)

The Bengals (10-5-1 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) had it rough in more ways than one during the 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh as 3-point underdogs. Cincinnati entered the game as the No. 3 seed with a home playoff game in its sights, and exited with the No. 5 seed and a road playoff game. Plus, star wide receiver A.J. Green suffered a head injury and is being evaluated for a concussion.

Prior to losing the regular season finale, Cincinnati had won seven of nine SU (5-3-1 ATS).

Indianapolis has won five of six SU entering the playoffs (3-2-1 ATS), capped by Sunday’s 27-10 victory at Tennessee as a 7.5-point chalk. The Colts (11-5 SU), who won the AFC South and the No. 4 seed, had the league’s second-best ATS record at 10-5-1.

Regardless of Green’s status, Lester is much higher on the Colts for the Sunday wild card contest.

“There won’t be much faith from bettors that the Bengals can pull this one off, so we will have to be generous on Indy’s side,” he said. “The bettors see the incredible gap between Andy Dalton and Andrew Luck, not to mention the early-season matchup that the Colts absolutely dominated (a 27-0 Indy home win). We’ll need some more information on Green’s status before releasing a line.”

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)

Carolina plastered Atlanta 34-3 as a 2.5-point road pup in a winner-take-all game in the horrific NFC South. The Panthers (7-8-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) became the second team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record.

Just as intriguing, they’re favored Saturday against the Arizona Cardinals (11-5 SU), who have the league’s best ATS mark at 11-5, but are down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley The Cardinals have lost four of their last six games SU after a 9-1 SU start. On Sunday, Arizona fell at San Francisco 20-17, covering as a 6.5-point underdog.

“It’s funny to see a seven-win squad as chalk against one that won 11 games, but this is a funny league,” Lester said. “I love that Phoenix defense, but I’m just not sure the Cardinals can do enough offensively with Lindley under center. (Coach) Bruce Arians is going to have to get very creative, and he’s one of the best in that category. If the Cardinals can rattle Cam Newton, create some turnovers, they have a good chance to get the upset.”

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas, which won the NFC East and the No. 3 seed, capped the regular season by hammering Washington 44-17 laying 7.5 points on the road. The Cowboys (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) are 6-1 SU in their last seven, including a current 4-0 SU and ATS run in which they’ve scored at least 38 points in each game.

Detroit had a respectable showing at Green Bay in a showdown for the NFC North title Sunday, but still came up short in a 30-20 loss catching 8.5 points. That ended a four-game win streak (2-2 ATS) and knocked the Lions (11-5 SU, 7-9 ATS) down to the sixth seed.

“This matchup in the trenches is going to be great to watch, with the best o-line in the league (Dallas) and one of the best defensive lines (Detroit,)” Lester said of the Sunday NFC wild-card matchup. “But even if Detroit can stop DeMarco Murray and the running game, can it slow Dallas’ passing attack? The Cowboys are the hottest team in the league, and we know the public support for them during the playoffs will be huge.”

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Line Watch: Watch the total in Bengals-Colts

Spread to wait on

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

What an odd home/road split for the Cowboys, who were just so-so (4-4) in Dallas but killed it (8-0) on the road this season. Maybe the 'Boys should have offered to travel to Detroit for this one. Anyway, early numbers give bettors just about whatever they want for this one. Lions backers can shop around and get an extra half-point – and at this writing 8 is available at 5Dimes. If you like Dallas, you can find -7 just about anywhere. Westgate opened at -6.5, but the suspension of Ndamukong Suh caused that number to vanish. Suh will appeal, so it might be a good idea to see what happens with him before betting this one one way or the other.

Spread to bet now

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Seems like Baltimore-Pittsburgh battles have been field goal games for the last decade, so Steelers -3 is hardly a shock. Pittsburgh has played only a few close games this year, and both were early in the season (Week's 1 and 3), when the Steelers had both LeGarrette Blount and Le'Veon Bell lugging the football. Blount is long gone, and Bell’s status is uncertain because of injury. In an effort to keep things as stable as possible on the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers have brought in veteran back Ben Tate as an insurance policy. Even if Bell is able to play, it’s hard to see this line swelling to 3.5. What you see is what you get.


Total to watch

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (49.5)

Under players come out of the woodwork in the playoffs, where coaches constantly preach about the dangers of turning over the ball and offensive coordinators fear that they are one unsuccessful crazy play away the unemployment line. So caution is urged for folks tempted to grab the over on this one, even though it will be played in a dome. Four Colts games in a row have failed to go over, and 6 of the last eight Bengals games have failed to cover the number. Casual bettors do come out in the playoffs, inflating posted totals a bit, and seven touchdowns is a load. If you insist on batting the over, look around and see if 49 is available.

 

[CNOTES]

Wild Card History


December 31, 2014


Where did the time go? We have been around so long that we long precede the "wildcard" concept, which was not officially introduced into pro football until the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The seeds of the wildcard, however, were planted in previous seasons when the occasional conference playoff was necessitated, and when the AFL experimented with an extra round of playoff action in its final season of 1969. But once the wildcard arrived, it was here to stay in the NFL, one of former commissioner Pete Rozelle's many innovations that forever changed the landscape of pro football.


It was perhaps inevitable that an expanded playoff format would materialize, especially after the league began adding expansion teams in the 1960s (when the AFL also came into existence), although it took a while for the idea to resonate. Ironically, the trigger turned out to be the 1965 Western Conference playoff between the old Baltimore Colts and Green Bay Packers, who had tied with 10-3-1 marks in the regular season, necessitating a one-game playoff for the right to meet the defending title holders and Eastern Conference champion Browns the next week. Colts-Packers was no artistic masterpiece, but provided such compelling viewing in Green Bay's 13-10 overtime win that Rozelle couldn't help but figure out that expanding the postseason to include an extra round of drama, such as the Colts and Pack provided, would prove a boon to league coffers and be irresistible to CBS, which had exclusive TV rights for the NFL in those days. And when expansion added the New Orleans Saints as the league's 16th team in 1967, Rozelle jumped at the opportunity to revamp the playoff format as part of a reconfigured league that would be divided into four, four-team divisions. Naturally, the winners of the Western Conference divisions (the newly-christened "Coastal" and "Central") and those in the East (the "Capitol" and "Century" Divisions) would compete against each other in an extra round of playoff action that was a hit with the pro football audience from the outset.


The old AFL also experimented with an aforementioned, expanded playoff format in its last season of existence in 1969 when it would invite second-place finishers from both its old Eastern and Western Divisions (who turned out to be the Oilers and Chiefs) to compete with the division winners Jets and Raiders in a semifinal round. Though Rozelle would not officially coin the "wildcard" term until 1970, the '69 Chiefs were indeed the first "wildcard" Super Bowl champion in 1969.


The merger year of 1970 was when the "wildcard" became a permanent part of the pro football lexicon. The first "official" wildcards were the Dolphins (AFC) and Lions (NFC)...the latter emerging from what we at TGS still believe was one of the best stretch drives in our 58 seasons of publishing.


The 1970 season was memorable (George Blanda, Tom Dempsey, and the debut of Monday Night Football), and the NFC playoff chase that season eventually settled into a breathless seven-team dogfight for the four available postseason slots, right up to the final weekend, with the new "wildcard" adding an extra level of intrigue to the proceedings. NFL fans were mesmerized; George Allen's Rams and the rival 49ers were going toe-to-toe in the West, the Vikings clear in the Central, but the Lions very much in the wildcard picture, with the Cardinals, Giants, and Cowboys all thundering down the stretch in the East. The latter appeared to be St. Louis' to lose until the Big Red stumbled in December, losing at Detroit, at home to the Giants, and by 1 point at Washington to close the campaign and eliminate itself from the postseason.


For a while, it seemed as if the Giants, led by QB Fran Tarkenton, were going to win the East; a penultimate 34-17 win at Busch Stadium over the fading Cards in Week 13 opened the door for the G-Men to capture the division as long as they could beat the Rams at Yankee Stadium on the final day of the regular season. But George Allen's team, needing a win to stay alive in the West, throttled the Giants, 31-3, effectively ending New York's playoff hopes. At 9-5, the Giants were thus bypassed by Detroit, a 20-0 winner over the Pack (the second Detroit blanking of Green Bay that season) to claim the wildcard, and Dallas, which had been surging since a 38-0 mid-November Cotton Bowl loss to the Cardinals but which had taken the East by winning five in a row to close the regular season, with depleted Houston not offering much resistance to Dallas in a 52-10 Cowboy win on closing day. Rather incredibly, the Cowboys' Doomsday Defense had not allowed a TD in its final four regular-season games! Meanwhile, after beating the Giants earlier in the day, the Rams needed the Raiders to beat their cross-bay rival 49ers on the final day to give them, and not San Francisco, the NFC West title, but the 49ers took away most of the mystery in the early going en route to a 38-7 romp to sew up the West.


There was also great concern heading into the last week of the regular season that a coin flip might have to determine the NFC wildcard rep. All it would have taken was a win by the Giants to force Dallas and Detroit into a coin flip for the wildcard spot. Fortunately (though maybe not for the Giants), we didn't have to endure that scenario. In subsequent years, more extensive tiebreaker procedures were set in place to prevent the possibility of a coin flip deciding a playoff participant.


In the 44 years since, we're still waiting for a playoff chase to replicate the NFC charge down the stretch in that merger year of 1970.


The first official post-merger Rozelle wildcard team to participate in the playoffs was Detroit, which would face Dallas at the old Cotton Bowl on Saturday, December 26, a day before AFC wildcard Miami would face the Raiders in muddy Oakland. Neither of those 1970 playoff games involving the wildcards, however, were artistic masterpieces.


The Lions and Cowboys (who meet again this weekend) would engage in a defensive war for the ages, featuring perhaps the most inept passing displays in postseason history. The teams combined to complete 11 of 38 (!) passes for 130 yards between Lion QBs Greg Landry and Bill Munson and Cowboys QB Craig Morton. Dallas would mostly control the game with its "Doomsday Defense," which was in the aforementioned process of not allowing a TD in a 23-quarter span spreading from late in the regular season all of the way until the 3rd Q of the NFC title game vs. the 49ers. Yet while Duane Thomas and Walt Garrison banged for a combined 202 YR, the Cowboy offense could not manage more than a Mike Clark first-quarter field goal. Leading 3-0 in the 4th Q, Dallas was repelled by a Lions goal-line stand, only to see DE George Andrie sack Landry for a safety and a 5-0 lead a few plays later. Despite the odd scoreline, there would be a grandstand finish, as Detroit had one last gasp. On its final possession, Lions backup QB Munson would hit former USC sprinter Earl McCullough on a 39-yard 4th-down bomb deep into Dallas territory before Cowboy DB Mel Renfro intercepted a tipped Munson pass in the final seconds to preserve the 5-0 final, which was the Cowboys' second baseball scoreline in three games (Dallas had survived a must-win game at Cleveland, 6-2, in the penultimate regular-season week to stay in the NFC East race).


The following day, Don Shula's emerging Dolphins, along with third-year expansionist and AFC Central champ Cincinnati, the surprise packages of 1970, played their first-ever playoff game against the Raiders at a muddy Oakland Coliseum. Miami, which had upset Oakland 20-13 at the Orange Bowl almost three months earlier on October 3 (an early signal that the Shula Dolphind meant business), played John Madden's team evenly for most of the day in the slop, but the Raiders would break the game open with two big plays in the second half, first a 50-yard Willie Brown interception TD, stepping in front of a Bob Griese sideline pass, that broke a 7-7 tie in the 3rd Q, then Daryle Lamonica's 82-yard TD pass to WR Rod Sherman in the 4th Q that extended the lead to 21-7 before Griese hit ex-Colt Willie Richardson with a late TD pass to cut the final score to 21-14. Hardly an auspicious start for the post-merger wildcards, but they were here to stay!


Enough of the trips down memory lane. The playoffs would next be altered in 1978 with the addition of a second wildcard from each conference; more adjustments came in 1990, when a third wildcard team was added to each conference, upping the total number of postseason participants to 12. This also doubled the number of games on wildcard weekend (from 2 to 4), as now only the top two division winners from each conference would get a "bye" in the first round, and the division winner with the worst record was thrown in with the wildcard teams in the initial playoff weekend.


When the NFL eventually reconfigured its divisions (from 6 to 8) in 2002, the wildcard round wasn't fundamentally altered. Although there would technically be only two wildcards (as opposed to three), there would still be the same number of four games on wildcard weekend, which then featured the two division winners with the worst records along with two wildcard entries from each conference.


Historically, the wildcard round has been somewhat-fertile territory for the underdogs, who over the years have generally fared better in this round than in subsequent Division Round or conference championships. That trend somewhat revived a season ago, when three of the four wildcard games were nailbiters, with two of them (Kansas City-Indy and San Francisco-Green Bay) ending as "pushes" vs. the spread, while underdogs New Orleans (at Philadelphia) and San Diego (at Cincinnati) would win outright. Dogs, however, had been 1-7 vs. the line in wildcard games the previous two seasons. Which should only serve as a reminder that trends with such a thin number of examples are apt to turn around on a moment's notice; after all, in 2010, all four wildcard-round underdogs were pointspread winners. The shorter-priced (1-3 point) dogs stand 28-19-4 vs. the number since '78, including 11-5-2 against the spread the last five years. Home dogs, a bit rare in playoff action, are 13-5-1 vs. the points in first-round games since '78, though we have had one of those each of the past two seasons, and neither covered (the Redskins falling to the Seahawks two years ago, and the Pack losing by three while forging a pointspread push with the 49ers last January).


Still, for the most part of over the past 36 seasons, wildcard-round underdogs have generally fared well. Many insiders believe the absence of the top two conference seeds in the first round has contributed to better overall underdog marks than in subsequent rounds. But it's worth noting that one-sided results are still fairly common in the wildcard-round games, with 16 of 36 contests since 2005 being decided by 14 points or more, as have close to half of them (53 of 118) since the wildcard round was introduced in 1978. "Totals" results have also trended "under" (7-1) the past two seasons, although those results have been fairly well split ("unders" 27-24-1) since 2001.


Following are the spread results for wildcard playoff games since 1978 (excluding the 1982 "strike" season, when all 16 playoff teams participated in first-round games).


NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFF GAMES SINCE 1978


CATEGORY VS. POINTS


1-3 pt. dogs... 28-19-4
3 1/2- 6 1/2 pt. dogs... 18-19-1
7-pt. or more dogs... 14-14
Home dogs... 13-5-1
Road dogs... 46-47-4


Margins of victory (118 total games)
-- 25 games have been decided by 1-3 points
-- 26 games by 4-7 points
-- 14 games by 8-13 points
-- 53 games have been decided by 14 points or more

 

[CNOTES]

Wild Card Preview


December 31, 2014


Carolina (-6, 38) vs. Arizona – Saturday, 4:35 PM EST
The Panthers, winners of four straight, snuck into the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record as the NFC South champions. Cam Newton has played his best football over the final quarter of the season, tossing for 541 yards (61%) and 5 TD with just 1 INT while rushing for 197 yards and 3 scores as well. Credit the Panthers rushing attack, led by Newton and a resurgent Johnathan Stewart (486 yards on 5.3 YPC over the final five games), for making this offense dynamic during the final stretch run. Defensively they’ll give Arizona a real test as the Panthers have allowed just 43 total points over the last four games. Carolina has notched 10 sacks over that span while holding opposing quarterbacks to just 55.9% passing for pass 203.8 YPG with 3 TD and 5 INT. That’s not a good sign for an Arizona team coming in with their third string quarterback starting (there’s a slim chance Stanton will go if his knee is healthy, but we’re fully expecting Ryan Lindley under center).


Lindley has 2 pass TD and 4 INT in a little over two games of work while completing just 48.4%. Granted he has garnered those stats against three of the better defenses in the NFL (San Francisco, Seattle, and St. Louis), but Carolina’s defense will be no walk in the park either. Since Carson Palmer went down with an injury against St. Louis in Week 10, Arizona’s offense has averaged just 12.4 PPG. Arizona is an NFL-best 11-5 ATS as a road team over the last two seasons while Carolina is 10-6-1 ATS at home over that same span (6th-best in the NFL), including 7-3-1 ATS as a home favorite (2nd-best). The most recent meeting between the two was in October of 2013, with Arizona winning at home, 22-6. Cam Newton tossed three interceptions in that game while Carolina limped to just 95 rush yards on 20 carries. Seven of the last eight playoff games with an O/U line set at fewer than 39 points have finished OVER the total.


Pittsburgh (-3, 47) vs. Baltimore – Saturday, 8:15 PM EST
Pittsburgh won four straight games to claim the AFC North title and notch a home playoff game here over rival Baltimore. A lot could depend on the status of star RB Le’Veon Bell, who left last game with a hyperextended knee. Bell finished with 2,215 yards from scrimmage, finishing 2nd only to Dallas’ DeMarco Murray. With Bell’s effectiveness in both the running game and passing game, it has allowed QB Roethlisberger to have a career year. Roethlisberger finished with 4,952 yards and 32 TD to just 9 INT. He closed out the season with an impressive 6 TD and 1 INT over the last four games. In the most recent meeting with Baltimore, Roethlisberger tossed for 340 yards and 6 TD in a 43-23 Pittsburgh win.


Baltimore won five of its final seven games to notch the AFC’s 6th and final seed. It wasn’t always pretty as the Ravens struggled putting away the Titans, Saints, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Browns in those five wins. QB Flacco and the Ravens have been here before, running the table in three straight road games in the 2013 playoffs en route to the Super Bowl title. Seven of the past 10 meetings between the two have been decided by seven points or less, including six of 10 by three points or less. But both meetings this year have been decided by 20 points each (20-point win by Baltimore in September and 20-point win by Pittsburgh in November). Pittsburgh finished 5-1 SU against playoff teams this year while Baltimore was 1-6 against teams with winning records. The Steelers are 25-16-1 ATS at home since 2010, the 4th-best cover rate in the NFL over that span. The Steelers are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home games against the Ravens.


Indianapolis (-3.5, 49) vs. Cincinnati – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Indy ran away with the AFC South by winning five of the final six games, those wins coming against teams with a combined record of 25-55 – none against playoff participants. In fact, only two of their 11 wins came against playoff teams this season, but one of those wins was against the Bengals back in Week 7. The Colts are led by the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense behind star QB Andrew Luck. Luck finished with 40 pass TD and 16 INT and tossed for 300+ pass yards in 10 of 16 games this season. He’ll be going against a Cincinnati pass-defense that has really played well of late. The Bengals have held the last three quarterbacks they’ve faced to just 236 pass YPG with 4 pass TD allowed with 8 INT. Much is made of Cincinnati’s recent struggles in the postseason headlined by concerns about QB Dalton’s weak play. Dalton has just 1 pass TD and 6 INT in three career playoff games, failing to lead the Bengals to a postseason victory in three appearances.


Expect the Bengals to take some heat off of Dalton by giving RB’s Hill & Bernard a heavy workload. The rookie Hill led the team with 1,124 rush yards (5.1 YPC) and 9 TD while Bernard chipped in with 680 rush yards (4.0 YPC) and 5 TD. In Indy’s last two games against playoff contenders (New England & Dallas), the Colts allowed 373 rush yards and 5 rush TD, losing both of those games by 28.5 PPG. Indianapolis is an NFL-best 18-6-1 ATS at home over the past three seasons, a 75% cover rate. Cincinnati is 8-5-1 ATS as a road underdog over the past three seasons, winning three of their last four outright. Indy won the latest meeting in Week 7 of this season, 27-0. The game was completely dominated by Indy as they had a 506-135 total yard advantage and a 27-8 first down advantage.


Dallas (-7, 48) vs. Detroit – Sunday, 4:40 PM EST
Since Dallas’ 23-point home loss to the Eagles on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys have gone 4-0 SU & ATS, winning each game by an average score of 41.3-19.8. They arguably have the top QB-RB-WR trio in the NFL with Tony Romo (led the NFL in passer rating), DeMarco Murray (led the NFL in rush yards), and Dez Bryant (led the NFL in receiving TD). Perhaps the most integral part of Dallas’ success this season was its offensive line, widely viewed as the best in the NFL. They’ll have their hands full against this Detroit defense that ranked 1st against the run, 2nd in total yards allowed, and 3rd in points allowed. This defense got some very good news that star DT Ndamukong Suh won his appeal and will no longer be suspended for this game.


Offensively, the Lions have hit a bit of a funk lately. QB Stafford has completed less than 55% of his passes with 4 TD and 2 INT over the last three games while leading the Lions to just 18.6 PPG over that span. They’ll be facing a defense that has a “bend but don’t break” mentality all season. Nothing jumps out about this Dallas defense, but over and over they’ve made enough plays to allow Dallas’ offense to prosper. Dallas probably wanted this game to be in Detroit as the Cowboys finished a perfect 8-0 on the road this season. They were 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS at home, scoring 10.3 fewer PPG at home than on the road. Detroit ranks dead last the NFL with an 8-15 ATS mark away from home over the past three seasons. Dallas is 28th in the NFL with a 9-15 ATS mark at home over that same span. Dallas is 1-6 SU in its last seven playoff games dating back to 1998. Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991, and is 0-6 in six appearances since.

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - WC Saturday


January 2, 2015


Week 17 Recap


Despite seeing a handful of high-scoring affairs, the ‘under’ produced a 9-7 mark in Week 17. The Steelers and Bengals closed out Sunday Night with an ‘under’ winners, which was a rare occurrence for the primetime games this season. Including that outcome, total players watched the ‘over’ go 33-17 (66%) in night games this season.


Looking at the overall numbers, there was a nice back and forth for bettors this season. The ‘under’ went 49-46-1 in divisional games while non-conference (NFC vs. AFC) matchups saw the ‘over’ go 34-30. Overall, the ‘under’ went 134-120-2 in the 256 games played during the regular season.


Wild Card Trends


The first round of the playoffs has watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 (87.5%) the last two years and 25-15 (62.5%) in the last 10 years. We do have lower totals for this week’s Wild Card games, which might help bettors playing the infamous “due” factor.


FIRST ROUND TOTAL HISTORY (2004-2013)




2004 (Under 3-1) 2005 (Under 3-1)


St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5 Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37


N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43 New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37


Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56 Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5


Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5 Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5




2006 (Under 3-1) 2007 (Total 2-2)


Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5 Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39


Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48 Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41


New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5 N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5


Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5 San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39




2008 (Under 3-1) 2009 (Over 4-0)


Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5 N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34


San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49 Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5


Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38 Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5


Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41 Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48




2010 (Under 3-1) 2011 (Over 3-1)


Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5 Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38


N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44 Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5


Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41 Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47


Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5 Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34




2012 (Under 4-0) 2013 (Under 3-1)


Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5 Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48


Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44 New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5


Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5 San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5


Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45 San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5


Saturday, Jan. 3


For the playoffs, I’m going to break down each day and offer up my quick handicap and prediction on all the matchups. For those keeping track, I closed the regular season slightly in the red ($170). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!


Arizona at Carolina


Oddsmakers opened this total at 39 and it’s down to 38 at most betting shops as of Friday. During this year’s regular season, there were six games with totals listed in the thirties and the ‘under’ went 4-1-1 in those contests. That note alone tells you to expect a low-scoring affair and when you look at the form for both clubs and the trends, it’s hard to argue against the downward move.


Even though quarterback Ryan Lindley appears to be showing some confidence, Arizona’s offense is still limited with him under center. He nearly completed 60 percent of his passes in last week’s 20-17 loss at San Francisco, but was also picked off three times. Even before Lindley took over the full-time duties, Arizona was struggling on offense. The Cardinals averaged 12.6 PPG in their last six games, which has resulted in a 2-4 mark.


Arizona will now be facing a Carolina defense that has allowed a total of 43 points in their last four games. Ironically, the Panthers gave up more points in their two home games (30) against guys named McCown, Manziel and Hoyer then they did against Brees and Ryan in the domes.


Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 9-5-2 this season and that includes a 4-2-2 record on the road. The strength of the Cardinals has been their defense but the lack of offensive chemistry has taken a toll on the defense. In its last three games, Arizona’s unit has surrendered an average of 423 yards per game, which is the worst in the league. During this same span, Carolina has allowed 267 YPG, ranked fourth.


The Panthers have seen the ‘over/under’ go 8-8 this season but make no mistake that this is a strong ‘under’ team when playing at home. The Panthers have watched the ‘under’ go 13-4 in their last 17 games played at Bank of America Stadium, which includes a 6-2 mark this season.


Carolina has averaged less points at home (18.2) than on the road (24.1) this season. Outside of a 31-point performance against Chicago in Week 5 at home, the team hasn’t shown any explosiveness in Charlotte.


Not much history between the pair but they did meet in the 2013 regular season and Arizona captured a 22-6 home win. The Cardinals haven’t been in the playoffs since 2009 while the Panthers made a trip last season and lost at home in the divisional round to the 49ers, 23-10.


Fearless Prediction: I’m leaning to the ‘under’ but I believe the best wager in this matchup is the UNDER 21 ½ in the Carolina Panthers team total. As mentioned above, the Panthers have had trouble scoring at home and Arizona’s defense is sound against the run. Barring defensive or special teams strikes, I don’t see Carolina posting more than four scores and I expect them to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.


Baltimore at Pittsburgh


The third and final meeting between the Steelers and Ravens won’t be an easy handicap for total bettors. This number opened at 47 and has dropped to 45 at most betting shops as of Friday.


A lot of pundits are focusing on the status of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell (knee), who is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Saturday. I don’t want to take anything away from Bell but the Steelers diced up the Ravens 43-23 behind QB Ben Roethlisberger (6 TDs, 340 yards) in their recent encounter. Not having Bell makes Pittsburgh more one dimensional, which is usually a good thing if you’re leaning ‘over’ on Saturday.


Despite two straight ‘under’ tickets at Heinz Field, the Steelers have been a solid ‘over’ team at home (6-2) and they have a knack for scoring in night games, 28.3 PPG in six primetime games this season. Pittsburgh has gone 5-1 both SU and ATS in those tilts with the one loss coming at Baltimore (26-6) in Week 1.


The Ravens enter the postseason with a 4-0 ‘under’ streak but outside of Miami and Ryan Tannehill, the defense hasn’t faced a formidable offense or quarterback during the last quarter of the season.


Offensively, Baltimore has averaged 25.3 PPG on the road this season, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-3.


Including the two regular season meetings this season, the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in the last six clashes but the totals have been getting higher, similar to the rest of the NFL.


The Steelers will be making their first playoff appearance since 2009 when they lost to the Broncos 29-23 on the road in the Wild Card round. Head coach Mike Tomlin has gone 5-3 in the playoffs for the Steelers behind an offense that has averaged 27.1 PPG, which has helped the ‘over’ go a perfect 8-0.


Since John Harbaugh took over the Ravens in 2008, he’s led the team to a 9-4 record in the playoffs. What’s even more impressive about that mark is seven of the wins came on the road. Baltimore has been known for its defense but the club has averaged 23.7 PPG in the playoffs under Harbaugh. During their Super Bowl run two years ago, Baltimore scored 24, 38, 28 and 34 points.


Tomlin and Harbaugh have already matched wits twice in the playoffs and the Steelers won both encounters (23-14, 31-24) at Heinz Field. The totals on those contests ranged between 35 ½ and 38 points and the ‘over’ connected in both.


Fearless Prediction: Even though the weather isn’t expected to be great on Saturday night, my best wager for this game is playing the OVER 45. I can’t ignore the tendencies for both teams and both Flacco and Roethlisberger are legit quarterbacks that like to take chances. I expect both teams to get a minimum of four scores (at least 20 points) and wouldn’t be surprised to see short tracks created due to the weather. Winner should get at least 27 points in a tightly contested matchup.

 

[CNOTES]

Red flags for each NFL wild-card playoff team


We've arrived at possibly the most exciting weekend of the NFL season – the wild card round. Eight teams start their second season, in what they hope is a journey to the Super Bowl. Some of the teams playing on Wild-card weekend barely squeaked into the playoffs after getting help on the final weekend of the regular season. Some teams have known for weeks they would be in the playoffs, and were only playing to solidify their seeding.


Make no mistake – every team has a red flag that can be exploited by the opponent. Some weaknesses are as obvious as Ndamukong Suh stomping on an opponent; other red flags are as subtle as a Larry Fitzgerald double move.


Let's review the red flag for each wild-card team.


Can a 3rd string quarterback lead Arizona to playoff glory?
Even after a couple of starts late in the season, many fans are still saying, "Ryan who?" Ryan Lindley will be making his seventh career start on Saturday ...
On the road ...
In the playoffs.
A 6th round pick by the Cardinals out of San Diego State in 2012, Lindley was signed off the Chargers practice squad when Carson Palmer went down in November. After Drew Stanton also went down, Lindley found himself in the unlikely role of playoff game starting quarterback. The stakes are clear – Arizona was 8-1 with Palmer as the starter, and has gone 3-4 since. In those 7 games with backup quarterbacks, Arizona hasn't scored more than 17 points in any single game.
The Cardinals defense can hold its own, but they can't win if they don't score points. Can Ryan Lindley calm the sudden chaos the Cardinals have at the QB position? If he can deliver, it would be one of the more improbable story lines in recent playoff memory.
Luckily, they face off against another improbable playoff contender, an opponent with a sub-.500 record.
The Panthers look to get hot at the right time – can they?


Carolina becomes only the fourth team with a losing record to make the playoffs, and the first two don't even count – the Browns and the Lions both made it at 4-5 in the strike-shortened 1982-83 season. Of course, the Panthers are hoping to capture the same magic as the last team to accomplish that, the 2010-11 Seattle Seahawks. That 7-9 Seahawks team won at home against a superior Saints team.
If Carolina hopes to move on to the next round, they will have to find a way to beat a playoff caliber team for only the second time this season. They were a dismal 1-4-1 against playoff teams in the regular season. The two advantages they have are a 4-game winning streak to end the regular season, and an opponent starting an unknown at QB. The big disadvantage – the Cardinals still have a playoff caliber defense.


Can Joe Flacco be elite for Baltimore?


Everyone is tired of the debate: Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback? However, one thing is for sure – he's going to have to play at an elite level on Saturday to beat the Steelers on the road. This is one of the NFL's most competitive division rivalries, and it will be interesting to see how this edition unfolds. The teams split the season series. Baltimore won at home in Week 2, before Pittsburgh got hot – the Ravens only gave up six points. Then the Ravens got smoked in Pittsburgh in Week 9, giving up 43 as Ben Roethlisberger had six passing TDs for the second week in a row.
In his two matchups with the Steelers' defense this year, Flacco has played well – four touchdowns and only one interception. While both teams still play solid defense, neither is as dominating as in years past. Flacco sports a 9-4 record in the playoffs, but if you take out the Super Bowl season of 2012, he's a pedestrian 5-4.
This year's Ravens squad was the last team in, only qualifying for the playoffs after the Chargers choked away their opportunity to punch their ticket. Baltimore was 4-4 on the road, including 0-3 against playoff teams (IND, CIN, PIT). The Steelers have been red hot over the second half of the season, with the number one rated offense for most of the year. The Ravens defensive weakness is in their secondary, so look for Big Ben to light it up. This game may come down to whether or not Baltimore can keep up in a shootout.


Can the Steelers survive without the most dynamic back in football?


Last Sunday night's game was huge – an AFC North matchup with the winner taking the division and the loser getting the No. 5 seed. The Steelers prevailed to grab home field for this weekend, but it came at quite a price – Le'Veon Bell had his knee hyperextended on an open field tackle by Safety Reggie Nelson. Luckily for Pittsburgh, there was no ligament damage. However, there is sufficient worry about Bell's ability to go this Saturday that the team signed Ben Tate this week as an insurance policy.


The loss of Bell would be a huge impact on the ground – their second leading rusher is still LeGarrette Blount, who was cut a month ago. But the effect on the passing game might be more dire. Le'Veon Bell has 290 rushes for 1361 yards and 8 TDs – but he also has 83 receptions for 854 yards and three more TDs through the air. That makes him the second leading receiver on the entire team. In today's NFL, teams run ball control offense as much in the passing game as the running game.


The Steelers lean heavily on the RB position, both in the rushing and passing games. If Bell is unable to go, that will leave a huge hole in their offensive game plan.


Andy Dalton, will you please stand up?


This red flag is really quite simple. It's Andy Dalton's game to win or lose.


Andy Dalton remains an enigma. A second round pick by the Bengals in 2011, much responsibility has been placed on his shoulders. Dalton has shown flashes of development, complimented by times when the pressure was clearly too much to handle. His regular season stats showed good development through his first three years as a starter, but he's regressed badly in 2014.


Dalton steadily increased his yards and touchdowns in each of his first three years as a starter, but this year he went backward. He had 104 fewer attempts this season than in 2013, and he went from 33 to 19 TDs. Most disturbingly, however, he's increased his interception rate each year as starter. In 2011 he threw interceptions on 2.5% of his passes. This year, Dalton's interception rate was 3.5%, ranking near the bottom of the league.


Andy Dalton still led his team to 10 wins and a playoff berth ... and along the way, had the second most game-winning drives in the league (4). This will be Dalton's 4th appearance in the playoffs.


He's 0-3 so far. This game will go a long way toward determining if Cincinnati will trust him to take them to playoff glory in the future.


For Andy Dalton, the future is now. There may not be another chance.


Will Andrew Luck have any help, or will he have to do it all himself?


This game will be a rematch of Cincinnati's visit to Indianapolis in Week 7, won by the Colts 27-0. The Colts have played a couple of playoff teams this year, but they've greatly benefited from going 6-0 against their weak division opponents in the AFC South. The Colts do not have a rushing game to speak of, being led by Trent Richardson's 519 yards and 3.3 yards per carry. The leading receiver is T.Y. Hilton by a country mile; no other receiver came within 500 yards of his total of 1,345. Luck has spread the ball all over the field, which can be an advantage if things are clicking.


However, without a dominant 2nd receiver or running game, the Colts have struggled against quality opponents. Including the Cincinnati game, the Colts are 2-4 against playoff teams. The defense has been thrashed in those losses, and despite Luck's best efforts, the offense just couldn't keep up. They gave up 31 to Denver, 51 to Pittsburgh, 42 to New England and 42 to Dallas. If "Good Andy" shows up for the Bengals, the Colts defense can be had.


Despite Andrew Luck's gaudy passing statistics, he just doesn't have the weapons to keep up if this turns into a shootout.


Can Matthew Stafford beat a good team on the road?


The Detroit Lions have a formidable team this year. The defense is No. 1 in the NFL against the run and 2nd in overall defense. They sport a pair of 1000 yard receivers and a QB in Matthew Stafford with an electric arm. The Lions make only their second playoff appearance in the last 15 years.


Do their fans have any reason to hope for a playoff run?


That all depends on Matthew Stafford. While it's not all his fault, it's well documented that Stafford sports an 0-16 career record against winning teams on the road. When the bright lights shine, Stafford has yet to show that he can respond and lead his team to victory. Much like Andy Dalton, it's time for Matthew Stafford to flip the switch. It remains to be seen if he can do it.


Whether Tony Romo exorcizes his playoff demons will depend on his defensive teammates.


It may come as a surprise to many, but Tony Romo is not the weak link of this playoff team. Dallas sports one of the most high-powered offensive units in the league, with a dominant offensive line that gives Romo the secure pocket he needs. He doesn't have to make panic moves to keep the ball moving. With a dominant run game, a receiving corps that can make big plays and the security blanket in TE Jason Witten, the offense can be measured, consistent and deadly.


It's the defense that remains a question.


Coming into the preseason, many pundits wondered if Dallas would field one of the worst defenses in league history. Under Monte Kiffin in 2013, the Cowboys ranked near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories. Then they lost middle linebacker Sean Lee for the season with a knee injury. Few options were available to them, and they were forced to rely on former draft bust Rolando McClain as their starter.


However, Rod Marinelli was brought in to replace Kiffin, and while the defense is not great, it also hasn't been historically bad. Dallas ranked as merely below average (No. 19) in overall defense, and 15th in scoring defense.


This is the red flag for Dallas – it gives up a ton of yards, especially in the passing game. If the team allows Matthew Stafford to sustain drives and fail to bring pressure, it could turn into a shootout. The Cowboys defense needs to find a way to get off the field consistently on third downs – otherwise, another playoff game could be entrusted to Tony Romo.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action


January 2, 2015




Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)


NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -6.5, Total: 37.5


The Cardinals head to Charlotte on Saturday to open the NFL postseason against a sizzling-hot Panthers team that won four straight games to end the season.


Arizona heads into the postseason after losing two straight games and four of its past six contests. However, the team has covered in three of the past four games. Meanwhile, Carolina needed four straight SU victories to win the NFC South and got them after crushing the 3-point favorite Falcons 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 17.


The last time these two teams played one another was Oct. 6, 2013, when the Cardinals beat up on the Panthers in a 22-6 victory as 3-point home underdogs. Arizona has won-and-covered in two straight meetings, but the Panthers won-and-covered in their last game hosting the Cardinals.


Arizona has won just one game in Charlotte since 2004, and will need to win this game with QB Ryan Lindley under center, as Drew Stanton (1,711 pass yards, 7 TD, 5 INT) is now out for the year after having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. The Cardinals are, however, 6-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons, and 17-7 ATS against conference opponents in that time. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 11-3 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past two years.


In addition to the quarterback injury woes, Arizona has two questionable players in LB Larry Foote (knee) and G Jonathan Cooper (wrist). Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) is also questionable for Saturday.


The Cardinals have dealt with a number of injuries to key players this season, but they still have a chance to advance in the playoffs. QB Ryan Lindley (562 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) is, however, going to need to guide this team to the next round, and that is no sure thing whatsoever. Lindley threw for 316 yards with his first two NFL touchdown passes in a 20-17 loss to the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday, but he also threw three picks in that game to give him 11 INT in his NFL career. He will need to take much better care of the football against the Panthers in order to give his team a chance to win the game.


The Cardinals will also need a huge game from RB Kerwynn Williams (246 rush yards) in this one. Williams rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries against the 49ers, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry since joining the team from the practice squad just four weeks ago.


WR Michael Floyd (841 rec yards, 6 TD) caught eight passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to San Francisco on Sunday. He has been targeted 20 times since Lindley has been the starter for this team and will need to be on his game against the Panthers on Saturday.


This defense is allowing just 18.7 PPG (5th in NFL) this season and should give the team a chance to win this game, but the offense must find a way to put up some points.


The Panthers got hot at the right time and were able to steal the NFC South crown due to some really terrible performances on the season from the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers. This team, however, is playing extremely well as of late and is not going to be an easy out for anybody.


QB Cam Newton (3,127 pass yards, 18 TD, 12 INT) started the season slow as he dealt with fractured ribs in the first half of the year, but he has gotten extremely hot towards the end of the season. Over the past three weeks, Newton has thrown for five touchdowns and just one interception, and has rushed for at least 51 yards and a touchdown in all three games. Newton is taking care of the football and his legs are working as well as ever, so he should be able to get the Panthers offense to move the chains against this tough Cardinals defense on Saturday.


WR Kelvin Benjamin (73 rec, 1,008 yards, 9 TD) caught just one pass for nine yards in the win over Atlanta on Sunday, and he’ll need to do a lot better against the Cardinals if this team is going to advance to the next round. Jonathan Stewart (809 rush yards, 3 TD) ran the football very well down the stretch with 401 yards on 5.1 YPC during the four-game win streak, and will be relied upon to wear out the Cardinals defense with his powerful style of running.


Defensively, this team was dominant against the Falcons on Sunday and should be able to make Ryan Lindley very uncomfortable. The club forced three turnovers against the Falcons, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.


Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)


AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 45


Division rivals clash in the opening round of the AFC playoffs when the Ravens visit the Steelers on Saturday night. Pittsburgh will be missing its offensive MVP, as Le'Veon Bell (knee) was ruled out for this matchup.


Baltimore snuck into the AFC playoffs with a 20-10 victory at home over the Browns paired with a Chargers loss to the Chiefs in Week 17. The Ravens have now won three of their past four games SU, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in three straight contests.


Pittsburgh, meanwhile, beat the Bengals 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in a division-deciding matchup last week, and have now won-and-covered in four straight games. Both of these teams won-and-covered when facing each other at home this season, and over the past three years, these teams have split wins SU, but the Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Pittsburgh has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Baltimore, and is now 7-3 SU (5-3-2 ATS) in its past 10 home games in this head-to-head series.


Although the Steelers are only 1-5 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, they are 32-16 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Ravens, meanwhile, are an impressive 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 1992.


Both teams have some significant injuries, as Baltimore has four players considered questionable -- DT Timmy Jernigan (foot), LB Arthur Brown (thigh), DE Chris Canty (ankle) and OT Eugene Monroe (ankle). However, star NT Haloti Ngata will play after serving a suspension. In addition to losing top RB Le'Veon Bell (knee), Pittsburgh could be missing top CB Ike Taylor (knee) and NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The good news is that S Troy Polamalu (knee) has been upgraded to probable.


The Ravens won a big game against the Browns on Sunday and got the help they needed from the Chiefs in order to make it to the postseason. QB Joe Flacco (3,986 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) came up huge for his team, throwing for 312 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory.


Flacco has thrown for four touchdowns and just one interception in two meetings with the Steelers this season, and will need to continue to take care of the football if the Ravens are going to advance. Flacco is 9-4 in his playoff career, and has won at least one game in all five postseasons he has been a part of, but half of those four defeats have come at Pittsburgh (2008 and 2010) where he combined for just 1 TD and 4 INT.


WR Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 11 TD) caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland on Sunday. He’s now caught three touchdowns over the past two weeks and will be counted on to make plays against Pittsburgh on Saturday.


RB Justin Forsett (1,266 rush yards, 8 TD) rushed for 119 yards on just 17 carries in Week 17. He’s been extremely reliable all season for the Ravens and will need to run the ball effectively against a miserable Steelers rushing defense on Saturday. The last time these teams played, Forsett rushed nine times for 38 yards and added five catches for 67 yards as well. If the Ravens can run the ball well, their sixth-ranked scoring defense should give them a great chance to advance.


The Steelers won the AFC North with a victory over the Bengals on Sunday and they’ll now take on the familiar Ravens. QB Ben Roethlisberger (4,952 pass yards, 32 TD, 9 INT) had the best season of his entire career this season, and came up big in the win on Sunday night when he threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and just 1 INT. The last time the Steelers faced the Ravens, Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll be locked in for this one and should be really difficult to stop after picking apart this defense in their last meeting.


WR Antonio Brown (129 rec, 1,698 yards, 13 TD) also had a career year this season. Brown caught seven passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday and should be able to find plenty of room to work with against the Ravens. In two games against the Ravens this year, Brown caught 18 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be Roethlisberger’s top target in this game, as he has been all season.


One major area for concern for Pittsburgh is the absence of RB Le’Veon Bell (1,361 rush yards, 8 TD). Bell hyperextended his right knee against Cincinnati and will not play against the Ravens on Saturday. The Steelers expect to give most of the carries to recently signed RB Ben Tate, who averaged a miserable 3.1 yards per carry on 119 attempts between the Browns and Vikings this year.

 

[CNOTES]

Sharp Moves - Wild Card


January 2, 2015




We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out how the odds break down in Wild Card Weekend!


All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchup index as of Thursday morning.


(Rotation 101/102) – Lions (48) at Cowboys (-6.5)
Detroit is actually a modestly sharp team at this point. The Cowboys have come down from -7 to -6.5 in spite of the fact that they have had 57 percent of the bets on their side. The 'total' has held firm all week long and doesn't look like it is moving in spite of the fact that starting defensive tackle Nick Fairley could likely miss this game.


(Rotation 103/104) – Ravens (45) at Steelers (-3)
Keep a really close eye on the 'total' for this game over the course of the next 48 hours or so. The weather forecast is looking gloomier and gloomier for Saturday night. Rain is expected all day in the Steel City, and the forecast as of Thursday evening is calling for a 100 percent chance of rain. Already, we have seen this number dip from 47 down to 45. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game have been on the home team, though it should be noted that the two games in this series this year were each decided by exactly 20 points.


(Rotation 105/106) – Cardinals (37.5) at Panthers (-6.5)
Another game where Mother Nature is clearly going to play a role. Rain, wind, and cold conditions aren't anything like what the Cardinals are used to, and they aren't anything like what QB Ryan Lindley has gotten used to in his career. Remember that Lindley played his high school and college ball in San Diego, and rarely did he come across a game which he had to play in the rain. It shouldn't be surprising that this spread is up from -4.5 to -6.5, while the 'total' has come down from 39 to 37.5. Clearly, there is waning confidence in what Arizona is bringing to the table even though Carolina is a sub-.500 team.


(Rotation 107/108) – Bengals (49) at Colts (-3)
The battle of quarterbacks who "can't win the big game." QB Andrew Luck and QB Andy Dalton have 14 picks between them in six playoff starts, and the two only have one win between them (Luck last season). Still, the 'total' is relatively high in this one, which is also odd considering the fact that these two teams combined for just 27 points when they played three months ago. Sixty-one percent of the bets in this game are on the Colts, yet the line has dipped a full point from -4 down to -3. The 'total' has stuck at 49 all week, but the sharpness of the Bengals should not be ignored.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Top Action


January 2, 2015




Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)


NFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -6.5, Total: 37.5


The Cardinals head to Charlotte on Saturday to open the NFL postseason against a sizzling-hot Panthers team that won four straight games to end the season.


Arizona heads into the postseason after losing two straight games and four of its past six contests. However, the team has covered in three of the past four games. Meanwhile, Carolina needed four straight SU victories to win the NFC South and got them after crushing the 3-point favorite Falcons 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 17.


The last time these two teams played one another was Oct. 6, 2013, when the Cardinals beat up on the Panthers in a 22-6 victory as 3-point home underdogs. Arizona has won-and-covered in two straight meetings, but the Panthers won-and-covered in their last game hosting the Cardinals.


Arizona has won just one game in Charlotte since 2004, and will need to win this game with QB Ryan Lindley under center, as Drew Stanton (1,711 pass yards, 7 TD, 5 INT) is now out for the year after having arthroscopic surgery on his knee. The Cardinals are, however, 6-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons, and 17-7 ATS against conference opponents in that time. Meanwhile, the Panthers are 11-3 ATS after playing their previous game on the road over the past two years.


In addition to the quarterback injury woes, Arizona has two questionable players in LB Larry Foote (knee) and G Jonathan Cooper (wrist). Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams (hand) is also questionable for Saturday.


The Cardinals have dealt with a number of injuries to key players this season, but they still have a chance to advance in the playoffs. QB Ryan Lindley (562 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) is, however, going to need to guide this team to the next round, and that is no sure thing whatsoever. Lindley threw for 316 yards with his first two NFL touchdown passes in a 20-17 loss to the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday, but he also threw three picks in that game to give him 11 INT in his NFL career. He will need to take much better care of the football against the Panthers in order to give his team a chance to win the game.


The Cardinals will also need a huge game from RB Kerwynn Williams (246 rush yards) in this one. Williams rushed for 67 yards on 17 carries against the 49ers, and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry since joining the team from the practice squad just four weeks ago.


WR Michael Floyd (841 rec yards, 6 TD) caught eight passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the loss to San Francisco on Sunday. He has been targeted 20 times since Lindley has been the starter for this team and will need to be on his game against the Panthers on Saturday.


This defense is allowing just 18.7 PPG (5th in NFL) this season and should give the team a chance to win this game, but the offense must find a way to put up some points.


The Panthers got hot at the right time and were able to steal the NFC South crown due to some really terrible performances on the season from the Falcons, Saints and Buccaneers. This team, however, is playing extremely well as of late and is not going to be an easy out for anybody.


QB Cam Newton (3,127 pass yards, 18 TD, 12 INT) started the season slow as he dealt with fractured ribs in the first half of the year, but he has gotten extremely hot towards the end of the season. Over the past three weeks, Newton has thrown for five touchdowns and just one interception, and has rushed for at least 51 yards and a touchdown in all three games. Newton is taking care of the football and his legs are working as well as ever, so he should be able to get the Panthers offense to move the chains against this tough Cardinals defense on Saturday.


WR Kelvin Benjamin (73 rec, 1,008 yards, 9 TD) caught just one pass for nine yards in the win over Atlanta on Sunday, and he’ll need to do a lot better against the Cardinals if this team is going to advance to the next round. Jonathan Stewart (809 rush yards, 3 TD) ran the football very well down the stretch with 401 yards on 5.1 YPC during the four-game win streak, and will be relied upon to wear out the Cardinals defense with his powerful style of running.


Defensively, this team was dominant against the Falcons on Sunday and should be able to make Ryan Lindley very uncomfortable. The club forced three turnovers against the Falcons, including two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.


Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)


AFC Wild Card Playoffs
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 45


Division rivals clash in the opening round of the AFC playoffs when the Ravens visit the Steelers on Saturday night. Pittsburgh will be missing its offensive MVP, as Le'Veon Bell (knee) was ruled out for this matchup.


Baltimore snuck into the AFC playoffs with a 20-10 victory at home over the Browns paired with a Chargers loss to the Chiefs in Week 17. The Ravens have now won three of their past four games SU, but they’ve failed to cover the spread in three straight contests.


Pittsburgh, meanwhile, beat the Bengals 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite in a division-deciding matchup last week, and have now won-and-covered in four straight games. Both of these teams won-and-covered when facing each other at home this season, and over the past three years, these teams have split wins SU, but the Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Pittsburgh has won-and-covered in two straight home games against Baltimore, and is now 7-3 SU (5-3-2 ATS) in its past 10 home games in this head-to-head series.


Although the Steelers are only 1-5 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games over the past three seasons, they are 32-16 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards in their previous game since 1992. The Ravens, meanwhile, are an impressive 6-1 ATS in the Wild Card round of the playoffs since 1992.


Both teams have some significant injuries, as Baltimore has four players considered questionable -- DT Timmy Jernigan (foot), LB Arthur Brown (thigh), DE Chris Canty (ankle) and OT Eugene Monroe (ankle). However, star NT Haloti Ngata will play after serving a suspension. In addition to losing top RB Le'Veon Bell (knee), Pittsburgh could be missing top CB Ike Taylor (knee) and NT Steve McLendon (shoulder). The good news is that S Troy Polamalu (knee) has been upgraded to probable.


The Ravens won a big game against the Browns on Sunday and got the help they needed from the Chiefs in order to make it to the postseason. QB Joe Flacco (3,986 pass yards, 27 TD, 12 INT) came up huge for his team, throwing for 312 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in the victory.


Flacco has thrown for four touchdowns and just one interception in two meetings with the Steelers this season, and will need to continue to take care of the football if the Ravens are going to advance. Flacco is 9-4 in his playoff career, and has won at least one game in all five postseasons he has been a part of, but half of those four defeats have come at Pittsburgh (2008 and 2010) where he combined for just 1 TD and 4 INT.


WR Torrey Smith (49 rec, 767 yards, 11 TD) caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland on Sunday. He’s now caught three touchdowns over the past two weeks and will be counted on to make plays against Pittsburgh on Saturday.


RB Justin Forsett (1,266 rush yards, 8 TD) rushed for 119 yards on just 17 carries in Week 17. He’s been extremely reliable all season for the Ravens and will need to run the ball effectively against a miserable Steelers rushing defense on Saturday. The last time these teams played, Forsett rushed nine times for 38 yards and added five catches for 67 yards as well. If the Ravens can run the ball well, their sixth-ranked scoring defense should give them a great chance to advance.


The Steelers won the AFC North with a victory over the Bengals on Sunday and they’ll now take on the familiar Ravens. QB Ben Roethlisberger (4,952 pass yards, 32 TD, 9 INT) had the best season of his entire career this season, and came up big in the win on Sunday night when he threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and just 1 INT. The last time the Steelers faced the Ravens, Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’ll be locked in for this one and should be really difficult to stop after picking apart this defense in their last meeting.


WR Antonio Brown (129 rec, 1,698 yards, 13 TD) also had a career year this season. Brown caught seven passes for 128 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday and should be able to find plenty of room to work with against the Ravens. In two games against the Ravens this year, Brown caught 18 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be Roethlisberger’s top target in this game, as he has been all season.


One major area for concern for Pittsburgh is the absence of RB Le’Veon Bell (1,361 rush yards, 8 TD). Bell hyperextended his right knee against Cincinnati and will not play against the Ravens on Saturday. The Steelers expect to give most of the carries to recently signed RB Ben Tate, who averaged a miserable 3.1 yards per carry on 119 attempts between the Browns and Vikings this year.

 

[CNOTES]

Steelers RB Bell ruled out Saturday


January 2, 2015


PITTSBURGH (AP) - Le'Veon Bell's injured right knee won't be ready in time for Saturday's wild-card game against Baltimore.


Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin ruled his star running back out of the first round of the playoffs on Friday after Bell missed a third straight day of practice.


Bell hyperextended the knee in last Sunday's AFC North-clinching win over Cincinnati. Tomiln said he would not play Bell unless he was certain Bell was healthy enough to protect himself. Bell was walking without a limp by Wednesday but never suited up for practice.


Rookies Josh Harris and Dri Archer along with newly acquired Ben Tate will all get a chance at replacing Bell, who set a franchise record with 2,215 yards from scrimmage. It's unclear whether Bell would be available if Pittsburgh advances.


------------------------------------------
Bengals WR Green doubtful for Sunday


January 2, 2015


CINCINNATI (AP) - Bengals receiver A.J. Green didn't practice on Friday because of a concussion and was listed as doubtful for a playoff game on Sunday at Indianapolis.


Green suffered the concussion during a loss in Pittsburgh on Sunday night that relegated the Bengals (10-5-1) to a wild-card berth. He practiced on a limited basis Thursday, but was held out on Friday. The Pro Bowl receiver has to pass concussion tests before he can fully practice or play.


Green missed three games - including Cincinnati's 27-0 loss at Indianapolis in October - and parts of two others with an injured right big toe.


Tight end Jermaine Gresham was listed as questionable with a sore back.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Ravens open the playoffs at Pittsburgh on Saturday and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 playoff games. Baltimore is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's NFL picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 3

Game 105-106: Arizona at Carolina (4:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 131.587; Carolina 133.186
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 4 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 103-104: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.335; Pittsburgh 133.382
Dunkel Line: Even; 50
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 107-108: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 132.732; Indianapolis 139.734
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7; 53
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 4; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-4); Over

Game 101-102: Detroit at Dallas (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 132.266; Dallas 144.867
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (10 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 5) - 1/3/2015, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-3 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (11 - 5) at CAROLINA (7 - 8 - 1) - 1/3/2015, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 4

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DETROIT (11 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 4) - 1/4/2015, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-83 ATS (-35.3 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (10 - 5 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL
Short Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, Jan. 3

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers, 4:35 ET

Arizona
17-7 ATS against conference opponents
45-23 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
9-1 UNDER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
7-1 UNDER in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points

Carolina
1-5 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
84-58 UNDER as a favorite
13-4 UNDER in home games
9-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 ET

Baltimore
1-6 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite
1-5 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
11-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Pittsburgh
32-16 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
6-0 ATS in home games after playing a game at home
21-8 OVER in playoff games


Sunday, Jan. 4

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 ET

Cincinnati
8-20 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival
0-6 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
6-0 UNDER as a road underdog
17-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points

Indianapolis
19-8 ATS as a favorite
7-0 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points
6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game
19-8 UNDER in home games against AFC North division opponents

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, 4:40 ET

Detroit
56-83 ATS in road games against conference opponents
2-10 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
3-12 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored

Dallas
24-10 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
23-9 OVER in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins




NFL

Wild Card Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Saturday, January 3

4:35 PM
ARIZONA vs. CAROLINA
Arizona is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games

8:15 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


Sunday, January 4

1:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cincinnati is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:40 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Cardinals (11-5) @ Panthers (7-8-1)-- Arizona starts #3 QB Lindley here; they've lost four of last six games after 9-1 start. Redbirds is 5-3 as an underdog. Carolina won first two games and last four games, but went 1-8-1 in between; they scored 19 or less points in last five home games, are 2-3 as a favorite. Teams split last four games since Arizona won 33-13 here in '08 playoff contest. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this year, 6-5 on road; NFC South favorites are 5-11, 4-8 at home. Cardinals are in playoffs for first time since '09; Carolina lost at home to 49ers in this round LY- their last playoff win was in '05. Eight of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total, as did last five Carolina home games, and last three overall.

Ravens (10-6) @ Steelers (11-5)-- Teams traded pair of 20-point home wins this year, after previous five series games were decided by 3 or less points. Baltimore led at half in only two of last nine games; they've outscored last four opponents 61-19 in second half. Ravens are 2-1 as underdogs this year, 4-4 SU on road; they lost in playoffs here in '08, '10, but won last four playoff games, missing LY after winning Super Bowl in '12. Pitt hasn't been in playoffs since '11, with last win in '10- they won last four home playoff games. Steelers will be without star RB Bell; they won/covered last four games, scoring 29 ppg- they've averaged 7.4+ ypa in each of last five games. Pitt won/covered five of last six home games- they lost at home to Bucs/Saints this year.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL

Saturday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Wild Card betting preview: Saturday doubleheader
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

The Carolina Panthers went two months without a victory and are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but the NFC South champions are a solid favorite as they open the postseason against the visiting Arizona Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers overcame a seven-game winless drought by winning their final four to snag the No. 4 seed and become the first playoff team with a losing record since 2010. "The beautiful thing - record doesn't matter," coach Ron Rivera said.

Arizona was in the mix for the top overall seed in the conference until dropping its final two games to NFC West rivals San Francisco and Seattle to plunge to the No. 5 seed. The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback in Ryan Lindley, who will be making his seventh career start and threw his first touchdown passes in last week's loss to the 49ers. “I don’t think anything different is expected of us in that locker room,” Arizona coach Bruce Arians said. “We don’t look at it as a team with a third-string quarterback. It’s our starting quarterback."

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and the line has moved another two and a half points to sit at -6.5. The total has moved down slightly from 38.5 to 38.

INJURY REPORT: Cardinals - LB Larry Foote (probable Saturday, knee), DT Dan Williams (questionable Saturday, foot), G Jonathan Cooper (questionable Saturday, wrist), QB Drew Stanton (out Saturday, knee). Panthers - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable Saturday, finger), S Thomas DeCoud (questionable Saturday, hamstring), G Amini Silatolu (questionable Saturday, knee), LB A.J. Klein (questionable Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 67 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the mid 40's.


ABOUT THE CARDINALS (11-5, 11-5 ATS, 5-10-1 O/U): While Arizona is still holding out a slight hope that backup Drew Stanton (knee) can return, the reality is that Lindley will make his third straight start and attempt to build on last week's 316-yard, two-TD, three-interception performance - sans the picks. Michael Floyd hauled in both scoring passes while setting season highs with eight receptions for 153 yards last week but Larry Fitzgerald was limited to two catches while battling knee issues. Kerwynn Williams, signed off the practice squad after starter Andre Ellington was lost for the season in Week 13, has rushed for at least 67 yards in three of his four starts, but a bigger worry is the defense's inability to control the opposition's ground game. The Cardinals permitted one team to rush for 100 yards in their first 10 games, but have allowed five of the last six foes have surpassed that total.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS 7-8-1, 8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U): While Carolina had the good fortune of closing the season against four teams that finished with losing records, its defense surrendered an average of 10.8 points during the winning streak and limiting Atlanta to a season-low three points in last week's division clincher. Luke Kuechly - "The best middle linebacker in football," according to Arians - led the league in tackles for the second time in three seasons and is the backbone of a unit that was shredded for at least 37 points in five of the first 10 games. Cam Newton suffered two fractures in his back in a rollover car accident earlier in December, but has rushed for a TD in three straight games and has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in rookie Kelvin Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Pathers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals' last four playoff games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers' last four games versus a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: A slight majority of bettors are backing the Cardinals, with 57 percent of wagers on Arizona +6.5.



Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

For as great a rivalry as exists between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, the Ravens have never defeated the Steelers in the playoffs. Pittsburgh and Baltimore square off in the postseason for the fourth time Saturday night when the AFC North rivals meet on the Steelers' home field, where the Ravens suffered their worst loss of 2014. Back on Nov. 2, Baltimore absorbed a 43-23 setback against its biggest rival as Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdown passes, tying Pittsburgh's franchise record.

Roethlisberger will be under center on Saturday, but the Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell after the league's second-leading rusher hyperextended his right knee in Sunday's 27-17 win against Cincinnati that clinched the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. Sixth-seeded Baltimore snuck into the postseason party by winning three of its final four games, coupled with a loss by San Diego in Week 17. The winner of this game will travel next weekend to face either top-seeded New England or No. 2 seed Denver.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has held steady to this point at Steelers -3. The total opened at 46.5, was bet up to 47 and has come back down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Ravens - DE Chris Canty (proabale Saturday, ankle), LB Arthur Brown (questionable Saturday, thigh), DT Timmy Jernigan (doubtful Saturday, foot), T Eugene Monroe (doubtful Saturday, ankle). Steelers - S Troy Polamalu (probable Saturday, knee), DT S McLendon (questionable Saturday, shoulder), CB Ike Taylor (questionable Saturday, knee), TE Michael Palmer (questionable Saturday, groin), RB Le'Veon Bell (out Saturday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an 81 percent chance of rain with a 12 mile per hour wind blowing towards the northern end zone. Temperatures will be in
the low 40s for the game.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U): Baltimore has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Dec. 7, but its defense has allowed an average of 15.7 points during its last three games, including a dominant effort in Week 17 when it held Cleveland to 259 total yards and 3-of-13 third-down conversions. The Ravens defense could be even more dominant Saturday with the return of All-Pro defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who was suspended for the final four games of the regular season for taking a banned stimulant. “I feel like I owe these guys,” Ngata told reporters this week. “I’m going to do whatever I can do to help the team. I’m definitely just ready to get back out there again.” The Ravens quietly set team records for scoring (409 points) and average yards (365), thanks in large part to Joe Flacco (career-high 3,986 passing yards, 27 TDs, 12 INTs), Justin Forsett (career-high 1,266 rushing yards) and Steve Smith (1,065 receiving yards).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): The primary concern for the Steelers is the absence of Bell (1,361 rushing yards), whose injury paves the way for undrafted rookie Josh Harris, third-round pick Dri Archer and/or recently signed Ben Tate to see additional action against the Ravens. "I have confidence in anybody that's on our (53-man roster). If I didn't, they wouldn't be on our 53," said Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin, whose team could rely even more on their second-ranked passing attack. Roethlisberger tied for the league lead with 4,952 passing yards, while Antonio Brown caught the second-most balls in a season in NFL history (129) and led the league with 1,698 receiving yards. Pittsburgh's defense will be on the lookout for turnovers, which has been Baltimore's downfall in its previous playoff matchups with Pittsburgh (11 turnovers in three games).

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home playoff games.
* Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Over is 11-1 in the Steelers' last 12 home playoff games.

CONSENSUS: A 62 percent majority of the wagers are backing the Steelers at -3

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Round

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 38)

Cardinals’ weakness to dual-threat QBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Arizona gets a good look at two of the top running quarterback in the game four times a year – playing Seattle QB Russell Wilson and 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick in NFC West play. That experience with dual-threat QBs hasn’t helped the Cardinals slow those crazy-legged quarterbacks down, though.

Arizona and its blitz-happy defense has been burned by those two speedy pivots and overall has allowed 350 rushing yards to quarterback on the year (278 of those in the four games vs. Wilson or Kaepernick). Opposing passers have scrambled for an average of 5.93 yards per carry and now Arizona takes on a Grand Daddy of all dual threats: Cam Newton.

Newton’s rushing yards have been limited thanks to early-season injuries but the Panthers’ perfect weapon has been finding his footing with 197 yards on the ground the last four games, including 51 yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 17’s win over Atlanta. Cam will have no qualms about breaking off some big gains when Arizona brings the heat Saturday.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45)

Ravens’ pass rush vs. Steelers’ offense without RB Le’Veon Bell

Pittsburgh has ruled out its dynamic pass-catching running back Le'Veon Bell due to a hyperextended knee suffered in the season finale versus Cincinnati. And that has Baltimore’s defense frothing at the mouth.

With Bell’s ability to break big runs and make plays happen after the catch, defenses have had to stay honest. That’s helped out a Steelers offensive line that has allowed 360 total sacks from 2006-2013. It’s a modern miracle Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have to eat supper through a straw. With Bell keeping blitzes at bay, Pittsburgh has only allowed 33 sacks – its lowest total since 2005.

The Ravens’ pass rush is back among the most feared in the NFL, sacking the QB 49 times this season. Baltimore has recorded 12 sacks in the last three games and got to Roethlisberger five times in the two games versus Pittsburgh this season. Without Bell, the Steelers offense is depending on big strikes to move the chain. Big Ben won’t have much time to let those play develop with the Ravens rushers breathing down his neck.


Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.

 

[CNOTES]

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 49)

Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton on third down vs. Colts’ third-down defense

Cincinnati doesn’t want to pass the football versus the Colts Sunday. The best plan of attack is to keep Andrew Luck and his arsenal of receivers on the sidelines while the Bengals ground-and-pound with RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Only three teams have run the ball more than Cincinnati the last three games, with the Bengals handing it off 54.41 percent of the time in that span. However, there will be times when Cincy looks to QB Andy Dalton to move the chains on a key series – and Bengals backers will hold their collective breath.

Dalton has been a roll of the dice at times this season – showing zero consistency. But, there is one area where he’s predictable: third and long. Dalton hasn’t been sharp when facing longer third downs, posting a QB rating of 62.45 on third downs of eight or more yards. He’s thrown four of his 17 interceptions in that situation with four sacks and averages just 6.63 yards per completion – well short of the first down marker.

Nobody snuffs out drives like the Colts. Indianapolis is tops in the league in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 33.17 percent of their third-down opportunities (just 30 percent inside Lucas Oil Stadium). The Colts have recorded 13 sacks, seven tackles for a loss, four forced fumbles (two recovered), and three interceptions on third downs this season.


Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 48)

Lions’ towering receivers vs. Cowboys’ short secondary

Detroit’s offense was supposed to blow away opponents this season, but managed to put up just over 20 points per game and finished 12th in passing offense. Perhaps the Lions’ issue was that they were trying to pick on someone their own size. Detroit marches out a receiving corps that has no trouble getting the cookies down off the top shelf. The Lions have 6-foot-5 WR Calvin Johnson, 6-foot-4 TE Eric Ebron, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew, 6-foot-2 WR Corey Fuller, and 6-foot WR Jeremy Ross.

Those targets will tower over a Dallas secondary that only runs as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church. The Cowboys boast small fries in CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot) and have been bullied by bigger receivers, especially tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 1,052 yards and 10 touchdowns on 109 receptions to TEs this year – most in the NFL.

Detroit put up 488 passing yards on Dallas in Ford Field last season and it was the taller receivers who did the most damage: Johnson with 329 yards, departed 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham with 54 yards and Pettigrew with 31 yards. In the meeting before that, Johnson had 96 yards and two touchdowns while Pettigrew totaled 64 yards on six catches. Expect Matt Stafford to exploit this size mismatch once again.​

​

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Bengals (10-5-1) @ Colts (11-5)-- Indy (-3) blasted Bengals 27-0 in Week 7, week after Cincy's tie with Carolina; Bengals had 135 total yards, were 1-13 on third down and lost badly despite +2 turnover ratio. Home side won last six series games. Bengals lost their last seven games at Indy- their last win here was in '97, when Kelly Holcomb subbed for Jim Harbaugh at QB for Colts. Lewis is 100-95-2 as Bengal coach but 0-5 in playoffs, with four losses by 10+ points. Colts lost four of last five playoff games, rallying back from 38-10 deficit in the only win; they won/covered six of last seven home games with only loss to Patriots. Cincy won four of five road games since Indy loss; they're 6-3 as an underdog. Last four Indy games, six of last eight Bengal games stayed under total.

Lions (11-5) @ Cowboys (12-4)-- In 48-year Super Bowl era, Detroit is 1-10 in playoff games, 0-9 on road, once losing 5-0 to Dallas in '70. Lions' only playoff win was 38-6 at home over Dallas in '91, in Wayne Fontes era. Since '97, Dallas is 1-6 in playoff games; Romo's one playoff win was 34-14 over Philly in '09. Detroit beat Cowboys 34-30/31-10 last two meetings, in '11/'13; Lions won two of last three visits here. Dallas won last four games overall, scoring 41.3 ppg; they're 2-4 as home favorites this year, 7-25 in Garrett era. Stafford played HS ball in Dallas, won Texas state championship; Lions won four of last five games, but are 0-4 as underdogs this year, losing those games by an average of 15 points. Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total.