The more I've thought about this game, here are two things worry me the most (from a CSU fan perspective):
- CSU has come back from second-half deficits in their most recent conference games, but they're not built to do that against everyone. I'm expecting them to try to frustrate Wake with a deliberate, half-court offense the entire night, but if they find themselves behind by 10, 12 pts...they can't just suddenly flip a switch and score lightning-quick buckets.
- Wake is big and loves to run...a deadly transition team. They have two very fast and quick guards. CSU specializes in suffocating, in your face D, but I'm expecting to see lots of zone looks here since they should want to find a way to make Wake shoot as many threes as possible. Jeff Teague is the only one who can really knock them down with consistency though, so it all starts with stopping him. If the threes are falling for Wake though, CSU will have a very tough time keeping this close. But Maryland allowed Wake to shoot themselves out of the ACC tournament this past week playing zone. CSU will need to make their shots to not only obviously score points of their own, but also give their defense time to turn around and get set up instead of letting Wake rebound and run.
For all you statheads, here's an interesting tidbit I found on another site:
The Vikings are a perfect 23-0 when shooting a higher field-goal percentage than their opponents and just 2-10 when their opponent shoots better from the field. Cleveland State has held 18 of its 35 opponents to under 40 percent shooting; in 35 games, only seven teams have shot better than 44 percent. The Vikes have held 11 opponents to 50 or fewer points this season, a school record.
Wake has scored 65+ in all but one game this year, which was a blowout loss at Miami in early February (when they scored 52 pts and again shot like crap). CSU wins most games by scoring in the high 50s/low 60s. If they can hold Wake to around 60, then the 8 points could be pretty significant...