Clemson @ Duke

[Loves2kickass]

Circa Opening Line 06/12
Clemson -12

Circa Current Line 09/04
Clemson -12

Predictive Rating Line
Clemson -18

There's about a 65% cover rate if the closing line is at least 3 points adjusted from the opening line at Circa.

The theory behind that is Circa opens their lines early for the following week and usually some game lines are slanted more towards one side in a effort to establish the resistance area, then the line settles some and moves at small intervals either way.

In the case with the game tonight there's no current change between the lines, opening to current.

I don't use that as the sole reason to make a bet but I do look at it as one possible parameter.

Besides that, the only advantage I see with other factors is the predictive rating is currently 6 points off of the current Circa line (home field/game location not included), favoring Clemson tonight ATS.

Good luck.

 

[exploited17]

Historically when does Duke beat these kinds of teams?
People assume because Duke was 9-4 and hung with teams with no defense they are gonna cover.
I did take Duke with an average bet hoping Clemson and Klubnick start slow but can't be surprised if Clemmy smokes them.
GL

 

[Loves2kickass]

There's about a 65% cover rate if the closing line is at least 3 points adjusted from the opening line at Circa.

Let me rephrase this. 58%-65% as it varies year over year. I don't want to be mis-quoted.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Current Circa line 30 min before kickoff
Clemson -12, 54 1/2.

Line remains the same on the side with the only difference now on the total which Circa opened at 57 1/2.

 

[PirateAlew]

Historically when does Duke beat these kinds of teams?
People assume because Duke was 9-4 and hung with teams with no defense they are gonna cover.
I did take Duke with an average bet hoping Clemson and Klubnick start slow but can't be surprised if Clemmy smokes them.
GL

I still remember the Spurrier days vividly as a kid growing up 8 miles away in CH and how they went downhill quick immediately under Barry Wilson; Unc needed more competition after beating up on them so bad for 20 years...glad to see they've made some improvements to Wallace Wade stadium for the first time since the 1940's, they needed this boost LOL (I'm on Dook as well, hope i didn't get suckered by these Devils)

 

[Loves2kickass]

Circa line closed at -12, 54

 

[LonghornMM]

My book closed at -14 and 54.5

 

[Loves2kickass]

My book closed at -14 and 54.5

Which book. More than likely an online book? I deal with Circa in Nevada mostly.

 

[LonghornMM]

Which book. More than likely an online book? I deal with Circa in Nevada mostly.

Online offshore book that my local uses. Their lines are usually pretty sharp, but not this one.

 

[Loves2kickass]

My book closed at -14 and 54.5

Do you know what the opener was with your book. I like Circa to take advantage of some lines.

 

[MLB]

Were you one of the squareheads on Duke? Actually thought Duke was a sharp play. Personally played the under and stayed away from the side but seemed to me Duke was the sharp side......just because everyone on the forum seemed to be on Duke doesn't mean it was (square) LOL

 

[MLB]

You're a pretty good capper, why go into other people's threads and hurl insults? Let everything play out and let your record do the talking!

One of the reasons I quit posting on here is all the BS that goes on.

BOL in CFB this year. Ohio St. Might be a tall order for National Champion, but I like your confidence.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Ohio St. Might be a tall order for National Champion, but I like your confidence.

Yeah, I'm pretty confident. Sometimes I'm correct, sometimes not. Who would be your CFP champion after week 1. Most people are skeered to stick their neck out and make a pick/bet for a champion this early.

 

[MLB]

I usually take 3 teams (total $500) for National Champion......This year I have.......

$200 USC
$200 Alabama
$100 Penn St.