I like: Pats (pk); Det (+3); CLE TT UNDER (20); and Chi (+2). My logic is below:
1. Pats PK vs Buffalo (4 units) – I think this line gives the Bills too much credit. I played it early as the public and the sharps both were on NE early. It is at -1 at most places know and I wouldn’t hesitate to bet that if I had to. The Pats are 26-4 in their last 30 vs Buffalo and Bill B has got the better of Rex in 8 of his 11 meetings including 6 of the last 7. The Pats tend to well against young, unproven QBs as BB can confuse them with defensive looks. The Bills have an advantage with their front 7 vs a lot of young interior O-lineman for NE, but I suspect the Pats will mostly work on their quick passing game where Brady gets the ball out in 2 seconds or so. So they don’t need a monster showing from the O-line, really. This line is just too much value to pass. Buffalo might be the most overhyped team this week.
2. Det + 3 (-120) (1 units) – A lot of people assume Minny’s line will be deflated since they played so poorly in week 1. But when bookmakers made this line months ago it was a pick – so the Vikings still have an inflated line from all the off-season hype. I think Detroit is the better team and this line assumes they are equal. This is a line I jumped on mid-week as the line is heading in the wrong direction for me, but it still cost me extra juice.
3. CLE Team Total Under 20 (2 units) – I think Tennessee may be overhyped, so I can’t make that play (though I am tempted). But when given the chance, I will find a way to bet against Manziel. And this allows me to bet on his futility, even if the Titans come down to earth a bit.
4. Chi+ 2 (1 unit) – I am going to wait to see if this line moves in my favor a bit as the public is all over the Cards, (yet the line was moving the other way early in the week). But for the I’ll take my chances for a unit. This play has little to nothing to do with Xs and Os and is almost entirely based on the line movement vs the public money.
Like Ten, I lean Wash, but don’t like it enough to make the play. For later games I like Seattle for sure, but expect the line to move in my favor on Sunday, so I will wait. I don’t really like the 4 pm games (maybe Jax, but they burned me as home dogs in week 1). I will keep looking.
YTD: 9-5-1
4 unit plays: (no bets)
3 unit plays: 1-1
2 unit plays: 4-0-1
1 unit plays: 4-4
1. Pats PK vs Buffalo (4 units) – I think this line gives the Bills too much credit. I played it early as the public and the sharps both were on NE early. It is at -1 at most places know and I wouldn’t hesitate to bet that if I had to. The Pats are 26-4 in their last 30 vs Buffalo and Bill B has got the better of Rex in 8 of his 11 meetings including 6 of the last 7. The Pats tend to well against young, unproven QBs as BB can confuse them with defensive looks. The Bills have an advantage with their front 7 vs a lot of young interior O-lineman for NE, but I suspect the Pats will mostly work on their quick passing game where Brady gets the ball out in 2 seconds or so. So they don’t need a monster showing from the O-line, really. This line is just too much value to pass. Buffalo might be the most overhyped team this week.
2. Det + 3 (-120) (1 units) – A lot of people assume Minny’s line will be deflated since they played so poorly in week 1. But when bookmakers made this line months ago it was a pick – so the Vikings still have an inflated line from all the off-season hype. I think Detroit is the better team and this line assumes they are equal. This is a line I jumped on mid-week as the line is heading in the wrong direction for me, but it still cost me extra juice.
3. CLE Team Total Under 20 (2 units) – I think Tennessee may be overhyped, so I can’t make that play (though I am tempted). But when given the chance, I will find a way to bet against Manziel. And this allows me to bet on his futility, even if the Titans come down to earth a bit.
4. Chi+ 2 (1 unit) – I am going to wait to see if this line moves in my favor a bit as the public is all over the Cards, (yet the line was moving the other way early in the week). But for the I’ll take my chances for a unit. This play has little to nothing to do with Xs and Os and is almost entirely based on the line movement vs the public money.
Like Ten, I lean Wash, but don’t like it enough to make the play. For later games I like Seattle for sure, but expect the line to move in my favor on Sunday, so I will wait. I don’t really like the 4 pm games (maybe Jax, but they burned me as home dogs in week 1). I will keep looking.
YTD: 9-5-1
4 unit plays: (no bets)
3 unit plays: 1-1
2 unit plays: 4-0-1
1 unit plays: 4-4
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