Clay's Regular Season 2009 Picks and Analysis

[ClayBetting]

Ok, here we go. Time to start looking at the real 2009 Season. After coming off a 11-4-1 NFL pre-season, I am hoping to keep the $$$ flowing. Just gotta stay away from the baited picks...

Here are my leans for week 1. Not going to take all these plays, may reverse my thoughts, but these are what stood out to me as something to look at closer:

Philadelphia @ Carolina

Philly -1

Has gone from a PK to Philly -1. Eagles are supposed to be dynamite this year. Of course they have had some injuries, but I am expecting to have some healthy players on the field for the first game. Not sold on this one, but going to keep an eye on it...

New York Jets @ Houston

Jets +4.5

Mark Sanchez ended the Baltimore game with a good drive and started to look more comfortable. Against the Giants, he looked even better. The Jets have a defense that is starting to come together as well. (Didn't look it against the Giants, but I expect them to show off more in the reg. season). I am interested to see the game tonight (Minn @ Hou) but I think that 4.5 points is too much for Houston to be giving up.

Jax @ Indy

Jax +7

Indianapolis is missing some key players that was once a formidable offense. Additionally, their O-line looked pretty bad against the Lions rush and I expect Jax to take advantage of that. Jax has some offensive air power now that I think will help keep the game close. 7 points is too much for an Indy team that I don't expect to be as good as previous years.

Washington @ New York Giants

Washington +6.5

Just too many points for a Giants team that is missing passing options and a Washington team that has improved...

Chicago @ Green Bay

GB -3.5 and OVER 43.5

I expect this line to keep going up. GB can put up points. The Bears are going to need to pass to keep the game close. Green Bay's blitzing schemes are going to get to Cutler and he is going to make mistakes. This won't even be close IMO.

DET/NO Over 48.5

New Orleans is god mode on offense and their defense still isn't even going to stop the Lions from scoring at least a couple TD's

DEN/CIN Under 44.5

If Palmer isn't 100% who is going to be able to score TD's? Both teams are going to be pretty stinky IMO.

So those are the thoughts. Please let me know what you guys think. Interested in discussing all the angles....

 

[JimmyJet]

Packers are strong both sides of the ball....Bears still need time to gell with Cutler...timing will be off with receivers early part of the season...expect big win for Packers. They are my home team so accept my viewpoint with prejudice. Honestly believe that barring injuries to Rodgers or the O Line they will dominate this year on both side of the ball. Look for them to win the division and possible go to the Super Bowl...good luck and congrats on your preseason record....JJ

 

[ClayBetting]

Packers are strong both sides of the ball....Bears still need time to gell with Cutler...timing will be off with receivers early part of the season...expect big win for Packers. They are my home team so accept my viewpoint with prejudice. Honestly believe that barring injuries to Rodgers or the O Line they will dominate this year on both side of the ball. Look for them to win the division and possible go to the Super Bowl...good luck and congrats on your preseason record....JJ

Thanks JJ! I was born in Milwaukee and my family are all huge Packer fans. Same here. I try not to bet on my team, because I know I look at them through rose colored glasses, but I really think they are that good this year - barring any major injuries.

Good luck to you too!

 

[JimmyJet]

I was born in Milwaukee too. Far north side, went to Custer H.S. Also lived in Burlington for three years 6th, 7th and 8th grade..loved that town. Now live in Fox Valley till I retire than hope to live in Vegas or Reno so may legally bet on sports and play poker.

 

[thecruncher]

Definitely liking your leans so far from just eyeballing the lines. The PHI/CAR line was actually at CAR -2 for a long time. Carolina has been playing w/o a lot of their offensive weapons this preseason, and have struggled as a result. The Eagle's offense has shown potential to score lots of points on any but the toughest defenses. This line has definitely had some major changes because of the preseason results.

 

[ClayBetting]

Thanks Cruncher. I keep looking at this Eagles game and I think I am going to lay off. I just think it could go either way, and I'm not sold on the Eagles yet.

However, I made the following bets for week 1:

1 Unit Each, so far...

Denver/Cincinnati UNDER 43.5 (-110)

New York Jets +4.5 (-110)

Washington Redskins +7 (-115) I jumped on this line at 5dimes

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-110)

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110)

San Diego Chargers -9 (-105)

I read a story today about how the Raiders are just falling apart. Players are partying all the time, etc. Basically, I am riding this story and fading the Raiders...

BOL to everyone!!!

 

[ClayBetting]

Adding:

JETS UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay +7 (-130)

2009 NFL: 0-0
2009 NFLx: 11-4-1

 

[Maniax]

i strongly agree with jags, skins, bucs, packers. im a little worried about the jets and eagles as both are on the road. best of luck and hope u have a successful year!

 

[ClayBetting]

i strongly agree with jags, skins, bucs, packers. im a little worried about the jets and eagles as both are on the road. best of luck and hope u have a successful year!

Thanks Maniax. I decided to drop the Eagles play, just don't trust them yet.

I think the Jets are going to be a sleeper team this year. Looking to jump on them when I get the right lines. Hopefully I am right.

BOL to you

 

[ClayBetting]

Update:

Adding the 49ers at +7 (-135)

 

[ClayBetting]

5-1 For Week 1 NFL. 3 to play yet...

49ers looking good tho...

Gotta make up for my miserable college picks.

Go Pack!!!

 

[FavreHater]

Great Picks today! Lets keep the good day going with a big Packer win and the over.:toast:

 

[ClayBetting]

7-1 and the Packers win!

Chargers tomorrow. Let's get em!

 

[ClayBetting]

Adding:

Bills @ Patriots 1st Half UNDER 24 (-115)

Brady does not look 100% comfortable in the pocket yet, and the Bills are going to try and pound the ball. Looking to take advantage of a potential low scoring 1st half and grabbing the under.

BOL to everyone!

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NFL: 7-1-0

 

[ClayBetting]

Ok, waiting for tonights games, but had to make an early jump on two games:

Atlanta -6 (-110)
Steelers -1 (-125)

GL to All!

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NFL: 7-1 +5.7 Units

 

[Coldweather]

Nice job this here football week. GL this season.

:toast:

 

[ClayBetting]

Nice job this here football week. GL this season.

:toast:

Thanks coldweather! Mucho Gracias <><>

 

[ClayBetting]

Man, Both lines are going crazy on NE and SD games. Might have to hedge the SD game and jump on Bills. Stay tuned. We will see how high they go. If Bills get to +15 and/or Oakland gets to +13 I might have to take 'em...

 

[ClayBetting]

Week 3 Picks:

Already jumped on the following ones early:

Atlanta -6 (-110)

Two teams going in opposite directions. Carolina looks very bad and I expect to see Atlanta put up a ton of points.


Pittsburgh -1 (-125)

I know this is a public play, but I think it wins. The Steelers are flat out a better team. Cutler is going to continue to see pressure and a tough defense that led to 4 INT's last game. Sure the Steelers are minus Polamalu, but the Bears are without Urlacher. Plus the Steelers have more time to rest and prepare. I don't even think this one will be that close...

Also taking the following games:

Giants +3 (-125)

I couldn't resist taking this game. I still think the Cowboys are suspect especially against the run. Their defense is over rated and the Giants have back their D-line that will pressure Romo all day. Given that I think this could go either way, I am happy to take the points especially considering that Eli is way better in the clutch drive than Romo.

Tampa Bay +4.5

Bills have a tough loss last week and don't have as much rest as Tampa Bay. I think Tampa can pound the ball down the fiels and keep this game to a field goal or less.

Saints/Eagles UNDER 46

Ok, Saints are going to have a tougher time putting up points against a stingy Eagles Defense. Additionally, the Eagles are without McNabb who is a huge part of their offense. Looking for a lot of running and defense. Under looks good in this situation.

Saints PK -120

Saints are emotionally on a high after a huge win last week and McNabb is hurt... Can't think of a reason not to take this game...

New York Jets +4 (-115)

Public is on NE but Jets line has gone from +6.5 to +4. Rex Ryan is getting his team psyched up for a big game against the Patriots at home. I think this one stays close, within a field goal.

Patriots at Jets OVER 46

I am a firm believer that the Patriots defense has taken a nose dive this year. However, as good as the Jets defense looked last week, I still know that Brady will be able to organize a few TD drives. Plus, the Jets are pumped for this game and I think they will be able to run and pass against the Pats fairly easily. I am a huge fan of Sanchez after watching him this season with the Jets.

Cleveland Browns +3 (+100)

I can't actually believe they are underdogs here. I mean, they looked fairly good against a super tough Minnesota team and it took a miracle catch for Denver to beat a bad Cincy team. I can't see any reason for the Browns to be getting points, but I will happily take them.

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NFL: 7-2-1 +4.65 Units

 

[ClayBetting]

3-5 today so far... Bears game was BS. Otherwise just some straight up bad picks. Plus to make things worse, my Packers lost to Cincy... They need a new right tackle...

So, just to make this either a complete failure or break even I am going to add the following plays:

Giants/Cowboys OVER 44 (-117)
Giants 1H +1.5 (-110)

1 Unit Each...

Let's go!

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NFL: 10-7-1 +2.1 Units