Cincy / SDSU x-mas eve ....

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Big play tonight:

* I'm taking a chance here gentleman so follow at your own risk***

cincy/sdsu-

this game is very intriguing for more than just one or two reasons. SDSU is gathering all the attention but the line is dropping down close to a pickem.... Why? Well I've got an opinion on this so let me explain. Sdsu is the MwC champs but who have they played all year, go ahead look at their schedule. Sure their defense is the best out of all non power five schools, but it's my opinion those stats are incredibly inflated. Severely in fact.... When they played cal they got torched 35-7 by a team that airs it out... When they played south Alabama the following week they lost again, that's pretty rough. The following week after that they lost to penn state. Then they go on an 8 game conference win streak where they didn't allow more than 17 points in any game and most of the time allowed 10 or less..... Big whoop. Easy to do when they didn't have to play Boise state the whole season. In the conference title game they barely escaped Air Force 27-24 and Air Force is a triple option team as we all know. Air Force had that game won for the most part so I'll give sdsu credit for battling. Their defense got exposed tho by an above average offensive unit..... So let's look at the flip side...

cincy came out guns blazing and faded horribly over the year getting throttle a couple of times... But, they've scored 30+ points 8 times this season and their offense is no joke. If sdsu sleeps on them Cincy is going to club them like a baby seal. Will they, I don't think so but I think they score.... Sdsu is about to run into a team who had higher hopes and finished 7-5.... Sdsu was probably hoping they would get a power five school and I can see them over looking Cincy here. Cincy is STACKED with seniors on offense but lately they are like flipping. A coin. I think the time off will help them heal and get the required reps to get back to slinging the rock all over the field. I honestly don't think sdsu is prepared for what they're about to try and defend. The good thing about Cincy is that they have 2 capable QBs if anything happens. Cincy knows they will have fits stopping pumphries and the sdsu offense because they have trouble stopping. Anyone and everyone lol, so in order to stay on this game it's on the offense being efficient with every drive. I expect them to set the tone early and often with tempo and very explosive plays forcing sdsu to cover those frisbee catching dogs vertically down the field further than they've had to do all year against any other team... It's just my opinion here but I could see Cincy winning comfortably by 10 and stunning a lot of people. Strength of schedule may show its face here.

ive said many times before that my two biggest factors when it comes to picking a winner is confidence and momentum, but that only applies thru the regular season and conference title games.... I'll also throw that into the playoff scenario, but all the other bowl games are off limits. You don't know how these young bucs are going to react to traveling and playing somewhere new after a month off... Some teams come out pissdd and others just fold like a cheap tent.... I think sdsu has all the momentum and confidence but they are playing an extremely talented and dangerous team in Cincy with a bunch of experience. Cincy is playing for everything here with a lot of frustration while sdsu already won the MWC and now has to play in the HAWAII BOWL??? Not exactly a huge bowl to get up for.

here are the plays gentleman

points will be scored:

Best bet-
500$
game total over 56

secondary play little risky here
cincy ML
200$ to win 200$
 

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Might be the most difficult game to accomplish fooling one's self into confidence they've landed on the right side of via "capping". Both teams starting backup QBs Cincy Gunner Kiel not making the trip to Hawaii for reasons no one will divulge, he a large part of the Offensive Output you describe and see possible here. SDSU a young team needed time to "gel" if you will thus the horrendous start then massive betterment 2nd Half of the season. I caught SDSU -1.5 a while back based mostly on the Turnover Discrepancy. Massive. Cincy has turned the ball over to an alarming degree + SDSU more accustomed to this trip to very distracting Hawaii than are the kids who'll be there representing Cincy in this environment...paradise...a lot different than Cincinatti, SDSU making this trip regularly to beat Hawaii Rainbows 5 out of their last 5 Homecoming games :):)....at least. Might be 6 of their last 6 now after this season's beating.

Just think SDSU handles the environment better and Turnovers/Defense decide this one so....Aztecs.

Considering my lack of success though thus far with the Bowls, all be those largely involving MAC Teams midweek which are impossible to win consistently, overall success rate thus far for me suggests your siding with Cincy here is the right call.

GL and merry christmas, appreciate your input this season.
 

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Might be the most difficult game to accomplish fooling one's self into confidence they've landed on the right side of via "capping". Both teams starting backup QBs Cincy Gunner Kiel not making the trip to Hawaii for reasons no one will divulge, he a large part of the Offensive Output you describe and see possible here. SDSU a young team needed time to "gel" if you will thus the horrendous start then massive betterment 2nd Half of the season. I caught SDSU -1.5 a while back based mostly on the Turnover Discrepancy. Massive. Cincy has turned the ball over to an alarming degree + SDSU more accustomed to this trip to very distracting Hawaii than are the kids who'll be there representing Cincy in this environment...paradise...a lot different than Cincinatti, SDSU making this trip regularly to beat Hawaii Rainbows 5 out of their last 5 Homecoming games :):)....at least. Might be 6 of their last 6 now after this season's beating.

Just think SDSU handles the environment better and Turnovers/Defense decide this one so....Aztecs.

Considering my lack of success though thus far with the Bowls, all be those largely involving MAC Teams midweek which are impossible to win consistently, overall success rate thus far for me suggests your siding with Cincy here is the right call.

GL and merry christmas, appreciate your input this season.


Cant argue with with anything you've just stated, it's all factual. I tend to lean sdsu here because at least they play defense but I thought Hayden Moore was better for Cincy than gunner Kiel in the amount of time he's replaced him... Just my two cents. The over seems logical that's why I played t big, figuring sdsu to score 38 and Cincy to chip in 24, but just in case the Cincy seniors decided to ball out and go out with a W I decided to take a stab fading the public and tout perception of 80+% on sdsu.... Lol oh well, Bol man and appreciate your input. Merry Christmas to you and yours
 

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"Just think SDSU handles the environment better and Turnovers/Defense decide this one so....Aztecs."

Key observation here. Not such a big deal to get in out of the cold and get some beach time for these aztecs. Not only is their home climate similar to the islands most of the year, but they've already played in Hawaii in their conference game earlier this year. just a thought.
 

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