I'm a huge reds fan and Bonds didnt get a hit the whole series and yet still gave the Giants thier 2 victories. This is what happened on friday, score 0-0 top of 7th 2 outs, Bonds comes up, they IW him, next guy homers 2-0 Giants. Dave Miley has cost the reds probably 4 games this year on stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by randyrohm:
He came home to score thus winning the game. He wa 0-4 andi am a purist and you dont do this.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Total pussy shit. YOU are right. Very very weak.
He came home to score thus winning the game. He wa 0-4 andi am a purist and you dont do this.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Total pussy shit. YOU are right. Very very weak.
The numbers VERY CLEARLY show that pitching to Bonds in any crunch time situation is simply stupid.
The average national league team scores 5.09 runs per game
Barry currently gets around 2 official at bats a game.
The rest of the team currently gets around 4 official at bats a game.
Giants average 4.2 runs a game right now.
Barry knocks in a run every 1.23 at bats.
So currently, without pitching to Barry more than twice a game, Giants are scoring 4.2 runs a game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs a game.
In this situation an average NL team will outscore the Giants.
Not intentionally walking Barry and giving him those 2 extra at bats per game works out to him batting in another 1.62 runs a game.
This works out to the Giants scoring 5.82 runs per game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs per game.
In this situation an average NL team will *NOT* outscore the Giants.
In short: If you pitch to Barry more than 2 times a game, you're an idiot.
The average national league team scores 5.09 runs per game
Barry currently gets around 2 official at bats a game.
The rest of the team currently gets around 4 official at bats a game.
Giants average 4.2 runs a game right now.
Barry knocks in a run every 1.23 at bats.
So currently, without pitching to Barry more than twice a game, Giants are scoring 4.2 runs a game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs a game.
In this situation an average NL team will outscore the Giants.
Not intentionally walking Barry and giving him those 2 extra at bats per game works out to him batting in another 1.62 runs a game.
This works out to the Giants scoring 5.82 runs per game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs per game.
In this situation an average NL team will *NOT* outscore the Giants.
In short: If you pitch to Barry more than 2 times a game, you're an idiot.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sound of Silence:
The numbers VERY CLEARLY show that pitching to Bonds in any crunch time situation is simply stupid.
The average national league team scores 5.09 runs per game
Barry currently gets around 2 official at bats a game.
The rest of the team currently gets around 4 official at bats a game.
Giants average 4.2 runs a game right now.
Barry knocks in a run every 1.23 at bats.
So currently, without pitching to Barry more than twice a game, Giants are scoring 4.2 runs a game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs a game.
In this situation an average NL team will outscore the Giants.
Not intentionally walking Barry and giving him those 2 extra at bats per game works out to him batting in another 1.62 runs a game.
This works out to the Giants scoring 5.82 runs per game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs per game.
In this situation an average NL team will *NOT* outscore the Giants.
In short: If you pitch to Barry more than 2 times a game, you're an idiot.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Great points, but in that situation, very very weak. LIke micenuts. If I did that in that scenario, i would quit. NO balls. No pun intended.
The numbers VERY CLEARLY show that pitching to Bonds in any crunch time situation is simply stupid.
The average national league team scores 5.09 runs per game
Barry currently gets around 2 official at bats a game.
The rest of the team currently gets around 4 official at bats a game.
Giants average 4.2 runs a game right now.
Barry knocks in a run every 1.23 at bats.
So currently, without pitching to Barry more than twice a game, Giants are scoring 4.2 runs a game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs a game.
In this situation an average NL team will outscore the Giants.
Not intentionally walking Barry and giving him those 2 extra at bats per game works out to him batting in another 1.62 runs a game.
This works out to the Giants scoring 5.82 runs per game while the average NL team is scoring 5.09 runs per game.
In this situation an average NL team will *NOT* outscore the Giants.
In short: If you pitch to Barry more than 2 times a game, you're an idiot.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Great points, but in that situation, very very weak. LIke micenuts. If I did that in that scenario, i would quit. NO balls. No pun intended.
There is no way that walking Bonds to lead off an inning can possibly be the right play. Any Monte Carlo type simulation (which will use the actual players statistics) would bear this out.
I know in extra innings 1 run means the game, so my example below isn't appropriate for that situations but let me share some ballpark numbers in general.
If you start an inning, you are expected to score around .53 runs. If your leadoff guy gets to first your expectation soars to around 1.2 runs. If he makes an out the expectation falls to around .35 runs.
Assume Barry Bonds homers 1/2 the time, and makes an out 1/2 the time. If he leads off the inning the expectation of runs would be .5(.35)+ (.5)(1.53)= around .9 runs. Walk him and you just increased the damage to 1.2 runs.
And that is using ridiculously optimistic assumptions for Bonds performance.
I know in extra innings 1 run means the game, so my example below isn't appropriate for that situations but let me share some ballpark numbers in general.
If you start an inning, you are expected to score around .53 runs. If your leadoff guy gets to first your expectation soars to around 1.2 runs. If he makes an out the expectation falls to around .35 runs.
Assume Barry Bonds homers 1/2 the time, and makes an out 1/2 the time. If he leads off the inning the expectation of runs would be .5(.35)+ (.5)(1.53)= around .9 runs. Walk him and you just increased the damage to 1.2 runs.
And that is using ridiculously optimistic assumptions for Bonds performance.
