That's obviously speculative unless Saddam has confessed to this. The UN and the US knew, after 1995 at the latest, that Saddam has dispensed with 98% of his WMD (the remaining 2% was not known to be there, by any stretch.) The following 7 years of inspections were for the plans, not the weapons. In the run-up to the war, Bush et al profoundly abused the weapons inspection process, knowing that they had already reached a stalemate on getting paperwork from Saddam (he was convinced that the US just wanted to overthrow him) and knowing that the likelihood of his having WMD was extremely remote. It's why Powell, in early 2001, defended the sanctions, saying he knows they're working and keeping Saddam from developing weapons. It was a matter of time before Saddam was overthrown. Unfortunately, Bush et al had a point to make ....