RECORD YTD 19-7 (.730)
SIDES 14-4 (.777)
TOTALS 5-3 (.625)
Miami made 7 in a row ATS at home last Tuesday and brought us a winner here.
Dallas with the worst defense (points allowed) in the league and Sacramento with the best scoring offense meet up and will try to get OVER the highest total posted for these two this year at 216. My numbers have this as a raw total of 201 points. I don't get involved in betting UNDER games when the best offense is facing the the worst defense, that's just plain asking for trouble. So I was leaning to Sac on the side till Predraq,(Pre) Sac's leading scorer and the second leading scorer in the league was suspended for pushing an official. That event led me to re examine the UNDER. First I looked at Philly's scores after Iverson, the leagues leading scorer went out to get a feel as to what happens when a top scorer goes out, Common sense says the team will score lower.Philly's scoring dropped an average of 13 points per game. Interesting.Then I looked at Sacs scores when Pre did not lead them in scoring. There were about 7 games that he did no lead SAC in scoring and those games averaged out to 189 about 9 points less than Sacs overall scoring of 198 at home. Pre is not going to lead them in scoring tomorrow.
So thats my resoning. Pre's absence,(2nd leading scorer in league, 2nd leading 3 point shots made. 2nd leading free throw percentage .924) coupled with the fact that I had this game at 201 with Pre PLAYING makes this a must pull the trigger UNDER
SAC/DALLAS UNDER 216
Its early Christmas morning 3:30 and the line is fluctuating between 216 and 215' This is a total public game, as ABC is telecasting it nationally and that will bring out the OVER players. The line might go up higher as tip off draws near, who knows.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your loved ones.
SIDES 14-4 (.777)
TOTALS 5-3 (.625)
Miami made 7 in a row ATS at home last Tuesday and brought us a winner here.
Dallas with the worst defense (points allowed) in the league and Sacramento with the best scoring offense meet up and will try to get OVER the highest total posted for these two this year at 216. My numbers have this as a raw total of 201 points. I don't get involved in betting UNDER games when the best offense is facing the the worst defense, that's just plain asking for trouble. So I was leaning to Sac on the side till Predraq,(Pre) Sac's leading scorer and the second leading scorer in the league was suspended for pushing an official. That event led me to re examine the UNDER. First I looked at Philly's scores after Iverson, the leagues leading scorer went out to get a feel as to what happens when a top scorer goes out, Common sense says the team will score lower.Philly's scoring dropped an average of 13 points per game. Interesting.Then I looked at Sacs scores when Pre did not lead them in scoring. There were about 7 games that he did no lead SAC in scoring and those games averaged out to 189 about 9 points less than Sacs overall scoring of 198 at home. Pre is not going to lead them in scoring tomorrow.
So thats my resoning. Pre's absence,(2nd leading scorer in league, 2nd leading 3 point shots made. 2nd leading free throw percentage .924) coupled with the fact that I had this game at 201 with Pre PLAYING makes this a must pull the trigger UNDER
SAC/DALLAS UNDER 216
Its early Christmas morning 3:30 and the line is fluctuating between 216 and 215' This is a total public game, as ABC is telecasting it nationally and that will bring out the OVER players. The line might go up higher as tip off draws near, who knows.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you and your loved ones.
