Choptalks Wednesday Baseball 100-76 +$3864.00 +38.6 UNITS YTD (maybe only 1 play)

[CHOPTALK]

100-76 +$3864.00 +38.6 UNITS YTD
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Was not really in the mood to break all this stuff down tonight. In alittle slump right now. 3 straight losing days. The big perspective is we are still on pace for 200 units. I just capped only the day game and came up with a bet I like. If it wins, I may have the energy to cap the night games. If not, I may take a break for a few days. This is the way I have always done things. Take a break if you get cold. This is the first true downslide of the season. Up to almost 60 units down to about 39 now.

Texas -117 $351 for $300

I use to feel really bad when I have bad days, even when im having a great season I use to feel bad. Because I know that a great number of people do not use proper money management and cant handle more than a 1 or 2 day bad streak.

I know some of you that have been following me since the begining of the season are probably almost broke after the last few days. There is something really bad about that picture. On pace for an outstanding 200 unit season but yet some are on the brink of sportsbook bankrupcy.

I know I sound preachy, but I joined this forum and post my plays to help people. If I dont do my part to help people with the principles of money management im wasting my time. Does no good to post winners if you press too hard on your bankroll.

Just by the way I read some of the post on here, not just my thread but the whole baseball forum. Some of you folks are risking way too much of your bankroll on these plays. People make fun of me all the time with my little $300 top play bets, and the rare $500 plays. But the reason for that is not for the good times, its for the rough times.

I can ride out the bad times, if you bet too much you cant.

For every 100 people that follow my plays, I would say only 5 or 6 of them use proper MM. Thats the average. This is why only 5% of sportsbetters make money longterm. The books give you plenty of oportunites with easy lines. Its the MM that separates the good from the bad.

I want my thread to more than just a picks thread. I want it to be an all around thread talking about all the aspects of being a winner. Its not just the picks you play. That is only half of the battle at the very most.

The other half is the part most people seem to forget or ignore.

Some of you may think im coming off as a know it all. To those of you that already know what im posting, congrats!

Im posting this for the people that dont know, and if you have a problem with that, thats your issue not mine.

Good luck everyone. And have a very:money8: day.​

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[IBETHUGE]

Good Luck tomorrow. Tejeda has been money.I like it.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I just re-read the above post.

It seems to come off as a know it all post if you dont know my intentions.

Believe me folks, that is not the intention of the post.
I know I dont have the answer for everything.

It was just a way of me going outside of the picking aspect of capping and covering a topic that this sorely overlooked.

I could not think of a better time to do this than during a downslide.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Good Luck tomorrow. Tejeda has been money.I like it.

Lets hope hes money. I could use a jumpstart.

 

[silver7]

I`m In The Middle Of One Too

Yesterday 0-3, with the 3 tms that have been $$ for me all yr. Phil, Mets & Mil, and when Hamels gets pounded like he did I know it`s time to back off. Cutting my units by 25% today!! Also find myself playing games I`m iffy on, i.e. Tigers.

 

[mebedaman]

Choptalk, you have to remember one thing -- You can't help people who don't want to be helped. Some people are hard-headed about certain things and I've found that sportsbetting/gambling is usually one of them. For whatever reason, when 95% of intelligent people walk into a casino, they become complete morons.

On a related note, if you need/want to take some time off because the losing has affected your psyche, and in turn affects your handicapping, that's fine. What's not fine (IMO) is preaching about money management and your numbers based system and "leaving money on the table" just because you are "running bad."

Something to think about, at least. I hope what I said makes sense.

I (still) look forward to your plays.

 

[jdigae01]

chop - you know as well as anyone, the key is to limit the bad days you have, and you have done that very well. dont worry about this latest bump in the road. u will get back on track

 

[Grozy]

Keep your Chin up Chop. Don't miss a play this evening because of a loss. You are obviously a solid handicapper. I appreciate all of your hard work, it has helped me make a few $$ this baseball season following your picks. As far as those others and their MM, for me the only way to believe in MM was to lose my bankroll a few times. Then I became a believer in MM. Until people lose their bankroll they aren't gonna listen.

 

[PokerNinja]

i love and hate all of you guys. hope u guys make it out to the bash this year.

 

[CHOPTALK]

ANGELS -105 $315 for $300
OAKLAND +117 $300 for $351
PADS -120 $360 for $300
Baltimore -122 $244 for $200

Good luck.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Couple things:

1) You sound more like a know-it-all in other threads than you do in this one. People were trying to have an intelligent discussion about Burnett vs. Cabrera and you basically told everyone you knew who the better pitcher was without discussing absolutely anything tangible. Unfortunate because as I've stated many times and in other threads, I respect your baseball mind, but as you have also said yourself, you're not the end-all be-all for sports knowledge and analysis. I was a little disappointed to be honest.



2) You said something in a quote about not leaving value on the table...but if you don't even look at the evening slate if the Texas game's a loser, isn't that somewhat similar to leaving value on the table? I mean obviously you're a proven winner so why not just go with your system and your capping and make those plays the same as you would before? I can tell you the 2nd worst feeling behind having a losing play is not pulling the trigger on a play that ends up winning. Just don't want to see that happen to you.


As I have said many times, I update my numbers every monday. If I have a bad MONDAY, TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY it causes me to hesitate and sometimes take a break because I may have made some really bad calculations. This is why im so streaky, because I change my teams every week. If people notice, I play alot of the same teams on a week to week basis. Thats how this system works. Im right about my rankings more often than im wrong, thats why im still up around 40 units. But sometimes my rankings that I update every monday may be a little off. Now thats not the case every single time I have a bad week. Luck plays a role in bases both good and bad. I know some weeks I may have tremendous rankings and my plays go to hell. Other weeks my rankings may be way off and I get lucky.

But generally speaking, the rankings is what makes or breaks me from week to week.

This week I have been playing BALTIMORE almost every single night. Before this week I hardly played them the whole season. Next week it may be a whole different set of teams.

Getting back to your question about leaving value on the table. Its Wednesday, if today turns out bad, I may have had a bad week of ranking things. If I knew for sure that there was value there is no question I would bet no matter what. But if today turns out bad, it may be a good idea to relax and wait till next monday.

3) I agree that lots on here probably don't use wise MM, but don't presume that the majority of your followers make this mistake as well. From what I've seen, for every 1 person that bashes after a bad day, there are 30 that congratulate you on a winning day (and they're never the same poster, on either side). To me that means there are plenty who are just fine with MM.

I was not speaking about just my thread as I said in the original post. I am speaking of the entire forum as a whole. Just by the comments I read, people wager too much money. Any time I read a post about someone saying if this play dont win im screwed, thats a sure sign of over betting and I see post like that every day.

Good luck on the plays, maybe you find some of this post offensive but if you do then I can't help that, just read your thread and thought I'd respond with some thoughts. GL on the Texas play.

k

 

[PokerNinja]

so is buffet gone forever???

 

[Addict101]

Sosa up with 2 men on, 2 outs in the 9th down 2...

 

[Kegler]

Sosa up with 2 men on, 2 outs in the 9th down 2...

SOSA SUCKS:nopityA:

 

[Paid2play]

Sosa up with 2 men on, 2 outs in the 9th down 2...

Man, we were due for a walkoff HR.

 

[CHOPTALK]

Come on david wells finish this up for us please. Im ready for a winning day.

 

[Paid2play]

3 more outs.

 

[CHOPTALK]

3 more outs.

I would like to see wells pitch the 9th, even though I trust hoffman.

He deserves the CG.

 

[guitarjosh]

I want to see Hoff. He is :money8:

But I hope you win either way.

 

[Smartass]

I would like to see wells pitch the 9th, even though I trust hoffman.

He deserves the CG.

:think2: He didn't even pitch the 8th.