Choptalks Game of the Year

[LuckyLeo]

Chop I like the pick also .Do you think it's worth betting a grand with my bookie or what???

 

[CHOPTALK]

Chop I like the pick also .Do you think it's worth betting a grand with my bookie or what???

Thats a personal question to ask yourself. I dont know how much a thousand dollars is to your bankroll. If its more than 5% of your total bankroll then the answer would be no. Never go over 5% no matter what.

 

[LuckyLeo]

it is now 5% do to I am down 4000.00 at this time do to ST.louis 3 days in a row .so it would be No! But do you really think they will be able to score some runs ???

 

[ClipJoint]

I'd be VERY careful with this one. There is a lot more to a game/line than just a starting pitcher.

The public is bashing the Yankees after losing a series to the D-Rays...but the fact is, the Yankees will win over 60% of their home games again this year (23-16: .589 so far).

They Yankees are batting .291 at home and scoring 6.0 runs a game. While Pedro may cut into these numbers, the Met bullpen is ripe as always (4.39 ERA). I'll take the Yankees offense anyday of the week over the Mets.

The Mets are batting .249 on the road and average a pathetic 4.0 runs a game against righties this season. Now they face Mussina who is 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA his last 3 starts. He also has a 2.66 ERA at home this year as an AL pitcher. I think the starters are a wash but give Pedro a slight edge...very slight.

Home/Away:
Yankees at home: 23-16
NY Mets on road: 13-22

Last 3 starts for the pitchers:
Pedro 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA (Mets are 1-2)
Mussina 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA (Yanks are 3-0)

Offense:
Yankees .291/6.0 runs at home
Mets .249/4.4 runs on road

Bullpens:
Yankees 3.89 ERA at home
Mets 4.38 ERA on road

Advantage:
Offense: Yankees
Bullpen: Yankees
Starting P's: Mets (slight)
Home/Away: Yankees

I hate the Yankees, but anytime I can get them at -115 at home where they in 60% of the time, I'll take it. Throw in the fact that Mussina is throwing and I'll take those odds against anyone. Pedro is great, but he can't win games on his own (as is evident with the Mets 8-6 -1.1 unit record in his starts).

Good luck with your play, but I'd be careful unloading on this one.

:toast:

 

[SqueezePlay]

I'd be VERY careful with this one. There is a lot more to a game/line than just a starting pitcher.

The public is bashing the Yankees after losing a series to the D-Rays...but the fact is, the Yankees will win over 60% of their home games again this year (23-16: .589 so far).

Good luck with your play, but I'd be careful unloading on this one.

The Betting Public is IN LOVE with the Yankees because of that $200,000,000 payroll. How can all that money buy so little? I like the Mets here, but I must concede your stats make a good case for the home team.

I like the Indians a little better tonight, but I do believe the Yankees are a basket case about now, so I tend to overlook stats.

 

[ClipJoint]

The Betting Public is IN LOVE with the Yankees because of that $200,000,000 payroll. How can all that money buy so little? I like the Mets here, but I must concede your stats make a good case for the home team.

I like the Indians a little better tonight, but I do believe the Yankees are a basket case about now, so I tend to overlook stats.

The public obviously loves the Yankees...that is true every year and every year you can make money fading the Yankees at -150 and above. But the public also loves to jump on a big name pitcher against the Yankees when they just finished losing 3 out of 4 to a terrible team. Most people got burned by the Yankees in that series and would love for Pedro to beat them.

Good luck either way...not a strong play for me, but I would be careful unloading on the Mets.

 

[CHOPTALK]

First off I never let the public tell me what to do. With that being said the public is all over the Yankees today. Its getting more and more lopsided the longer we go.


The overnight line people came in with the Mets. Since then its been mostly all Yankee money.

<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 951 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>8:10pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Pirates (K Wells) vs Cardinals (J Suppan) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Pirates 23.58%
Cardinals 76.42%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>386 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 953 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>4:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Cubs (S Mitre) vs White Sox (F Garcia) (Interleague)(WGN) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Cubs 28.08%
White Sox 71.92%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>577 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 955 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>7:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Red Sox (Wakefield) vs Phillies (J Lieber) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Red Sox 78.91%
Phillies 21.09%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>384 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 957 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>7:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Reds (E Milton) vs Indians (S Elarton) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Reds 32.74%
Indians 67.26%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>226 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 959 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>7:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Blue Jays (J Towers) vs Nationals (E Loaiza) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Blue Jays 9.66%
Nationals 90.34%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>290 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 961 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>7:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Mets (P Martinez) vs Yankees (M Mussina) (Interleague)(ESPN) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Mets 39.36%
Yankees 60.64%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>343 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 963 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>7:15pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Marlins (A Leiter) vs Devil Rays (D Waechter) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Marlins 90.71%
Devil Rays 9.29%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>183 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 965 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>7:35pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Orioles (H Penn) vs Braves (K Davies) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Braves 37.23%
Orioles 62.77%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>325 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 967 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>8:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Twins (B Radke) vs Brewers (C Capuano) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Brewers 31.45%
Twins 68.55%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>318 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 969 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>8:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Rangers (R Rodriguez) vs Astros (R Oswalt) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Astros 56.66%
Rangers 43.34%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>293 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_a># 971 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>9:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Royals (D Carrasco) vs Rockies (B H Kim) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>Rockies 57.35%
Royals 42.65%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_a>136 Bets
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 973 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>9:40pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Tigers (M Maroth) vs Diamondbacks (S Estes) (Interleague) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Diamondbacks 57.89%
Tigers 42.11%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>133 Bets




</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This info is from a fairly square shop with rules that scare away the big boys. Pretty reliable info here. I will keep updated.

 

[thunderlips]

Chops i like the mets myself and if we win i will be licking my chops all the way to the bank.

 

[ClipJoint]

Public opinion is almost meaningless in my handicapping. I was just bringing up the point that this is not the normal public opinion day for the Yanks since they are facing Pedro.

I think far too many people use "public opinion" as a main factor in their handicapping. But with the Yankees, you can make a killing betting against them because the public is always on them. The true value is when they are -150 favorites or higher.

 

[~DaOnEaNdOnLy777~]

choptalk.....gongrats on the nice win buddy. Great call indeed.


~DaOnEaNdOnLy777~

 

[ClipJoint]

The betting public is correct when moving the money line in NY YANKEES games 54% of the time over the last 3 seasons.

The betting public does love the Yankees, but like I mentioned, it doesn't mean much with this line. The public hits over 50% when playing the Yankees and at -115 that is about a wash. The value is when you are getting +150 to +220 betting against them and winning 46% of your plays.

That doesn't mean they will win or lose today, I just don't want to see anyone losing their shirt on a game like this. I hope you bring home the money.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I just don't want to see anyone losing their shirt on a game like this. I hope you bring home the money. -Clip Joint


This is why a hate posting plays on a forum regularly. People need to have perspective. This is a damm baseball game. Do not ever play losing your shirt type of money on any game ever. Just because its a my game of the year does not mean it is free money. If you never go over 5% of your bankroll, you will never lose your shirt.


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[ClipJoint]

"losing your shirt" is a figure of speach just as "game of the year" is. Every bettor is responsible for their own discipline and money management. You shouldn't feel responsible when a player wins or loses. I think it's great that you post your plays.

:toast:

 

[ClubmanCoop]

I agree with CJ btw re: Every bettor is responsible for their own discipline and money management.
And THX Chop I Agree nice game and line Im gonna "pound" this game for 200 LMAO "pound"...lmao

GL All

 

[CHOPTALK]

<TABLE class=bet cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bet_cell_b># 961 </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>7:05pm </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Mets (P Martinez) vs Yankees (M Mussina) (Interleague)(ESPN) </TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>Mets 36.04%
Yankees 63.96%
</TD><TD class=bet_cell_b>480 Bets</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The money is still increasing on the Yankees 64%. Line holding steady.

 

[HPark1]

I agree with ClipJoint and his opinion regarding just going against the public. This should only be a minor factor. Just going against the public won't make you a long term winner. Try it, it won't.

Also looking at a ridiculously small sample of bets is completely meaningless. You need thousands of wagers to really determine where the majority of money is going.


fwiw - Here is a slightly bigger sample (still nowhere near enough).

NYM - P. Martinez 1450 51%
NYY - M. Mussina 49%

 

[CHOPTALK]

I agree with ClipJoint and his opinion regarding just going against the public. This should only be a minor factor. Just going against the public won't make you a long term winner. Try it, it won't.

Also looking at a ridiculously small sample of bets is completely meaningless. You need thousands of wagers to really determine where the majority of money is going.


fwiw - Here is a slightly bigger sample (still nowhere near enough).

NYM - P. Martinez 1450 51%
NYY - M. Mussina 49%

You did not read my post closely. I said I never let the public tell me who to bet. Go back and read the rest of the thread. I was only stating where the action was flowing because another poster was saying that all the public money was on the Mets, which is untrue.

I will never ever ever make a bet based on public action. I do not believe in fading the public for the simple fact that its the public. I have said that hundreds of times. I have seen people on this forum hundreds of times talk themselves out of winners for the simple fact that the public is on a certain side.

Believe me. I am not baseing my Play of the Year on the simple fact that 60% of the public is on the Yankees.

 

[MrReb]

Wagerline is:



NYY 55%

NYM 45%

 

[HPark1]

my apologies, your intial explanantion for your selection had no mention of who the public was on.

However when it was mentioned that a lot of public money would be on the Mets you responded by denying this was true.

This is not true. The public money as pouring into the Yankees right now. You had a few Mets backers yesterday when the opening number came out, but since then its been heavy Yankee action.

From your later posts it appears you are basing this on less then 500 bets at Caribsports. This is as I mentioned waay to little to go on.


It is also difficult to know which team is attracting the sharp action, if there is any at all. One team could be attracting lots more public bets but included could be some sharp action also. And obviously vice versa.

The public doesn't know what the "correct" side is anyways. Thats why looking at a consensus doesn't usually help.

 

[CHOPTALK]

my apologies, your intial explanantion for your selection had no mention of who the public was on.

However when it was mentioned that a lot of public money would be on the Mets you responded by denying this was true.



From your later posts it appears you are basing this on less then 500 bets at Caribsports. This is as I mentioned waay to little to go on.


It is also difficult to know which team is attracting the sharp action, if there is any at all. One team could be attracting lots more public bets but included could be some sharp action also. And obviously vice versa.

The public doesn't know what the "correct" side is anyways. Thats why looking at a consensus doesn't usually help.

I could not agree more with your statement. 100% true

#1 Im an overnight type of guy. I love the opening numbers. I hit these games when they first hit the 8 cent lines. That means that my plays have absolutly nothing to do with public action. My plays have to do with the opening number vs my own personal number. Sometimes I will lay off the opening number if I think the line will move in my favor later on, but 9 times out of 10 hit my games right away.

Im a hardheaded person when I have a strong opionion on a game. I dont care who disagrees with me when I like a side enough. This game could have 100% action on the Yankees and I would still take the Mets or 100% action on the Mets. It does not matter to me. I have confidence in what I do. I dont let things like that sway me one bit.