Week 11 Card (all bets are -110 unless otherwise stated)
Ten + 3 (-1.1 unit) L
Oak -1 (3 units)
Mia +1.5 (1 unit)
NYJ -3 (2 units)
PHI TT UNDER 25.5 (-105; 2 units)
NE -6.5 -120 (3 units
YTD: 67-46-2 +23.2 units
I have a pressing deadline that is non-football related so here are some brief notes instead of properly research write-ups. I had to rush it so please forgive typos or minor mistakes.
*I will add 2h plays either here, or Greenbacks 2h thread (both if time permits)
*In both the case of Oak -1 @ Det and the NYJ -3 @ HOU I am trying to take advantage of recency bias. Detroit is coming off of a unthinkable road win in GB and Oakland looked pedestrian against a suddenly hot Bears team. Likewise, Houston had their most impressive game of the year by far, beating Cinci on the road straight up. While the Jets had probably the worst game, losing at home to a division rival. I believe Detroit and Houston are still wildly flawed teams and Oakland the Jets are better than they showed last week and I am hoping the recent losses are helping provide a bit of value. The reverse line movement scares me a bit off Oakland, but it also scared me off Carolina last week and cost me an easy win. I got a bad line on Oak since I bet it early, but it isn’t a key number so I am not too worried.
*As far as Philly Team Total UNDER 25.5 (-105) goes this offense just hasn’t been trustworthy this year. I don’t think Sanchez reflect a major drop-off in value from Bradford (nor do bookmakers it seems) but he is still not someone I would want to rely on to put up 26 points against anyone. I am on a hot streak on UNDERS hitting last week on the GB/DET FH UNDER, the STL Team Total UNDER and the Minn/Oak UNDER.
* As for @Miami +1.5 vs Dallas: The Cowboys problems are real. Even with a backup a decent team doesn’t lose 7 games in a row. The Pats went 11-5 with Matt Cassell and I know the comparison is not apples to oranges but other examples abound. The Steelers managed to win a few games with backups, including some tough games. A team that is well rounded and well coached can win a game or two with a shitty QB. So if I can take a short home dog against a flawed team relying on a QB who hasn’t played a game in two months I think that is where the value lies. I would also note the public loves the Cowboys, but since I am on the side of the public with the Jets, Oakland and the Pats it probably doesn’t carry too much clout.
* I have a pretty strong lean on Wash +7.5 but the game just missed the cut. Maybe I will look for a 2h play. I also have leans on CAR TT UNDER 26.5, ATL TT UNDER 26. But I have enough reservations to lay off.
*I am not crazy about the late games. I like Arizona at 3 but the value has been sucked out of that one. The 4 pm games don’t appeal to me (SD +3 might be an option but still mulling). I may try to find value in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of those games.
*Will add write-up on NE game tomorrow well before kickoff.
Ten + 3 (-1.1 unit) L
Oak -1 (3 units)
Mia +1.5 (1 unit)
NYJ -3 (2 units)
PHI TT UNDER 25.5 (-105; 2 units)
NE -6.5 -120 (3 units
YTD: 67-46-2 +23.2 units
I have a pressing deadline that is non-football related so here are some brief notes instead of properly research write-ups. I had to rush it so please forgive typos or minor mistakes.
*I will add 2h plays either here, or Greenbacks 2h thread (both if time permits)
*In both the case of Oak -1 @ Det and the NYJ -3 @ HOU I am trying to take advantage of recency bias. Detroit is coming off of a unthinkable road win in GB and Oakland looked pedestrian against a suddenly hot Bears team. Likewise, Houston had their most impressive game of the year by far, beating Cinci on the road straight up. While the Jets had probably the worst game, losing at home to a division rival. I believe Detroit and Houston are still wildly flawed teams and Oakland the Jets are better than they showed last week and I am hoping the recent losses are helping provide a bit of value. The reverse line movement scares me a bit off Oakland, but it also scared me off Carolina last week and cost me an easy win. I got a bad line on Oak since I bet it early, but it isn’t a key number so I am not too worried.
*As far as Philly Team Total UNDER 25.5 (-105) goes this offense just hasn’t been trustworthy this year. I don’t think Sanchez reflect a major drop-off in value from Bradford (nor do bookmakers it seems) but he is still not someone I would want to rely on to put up 26 points against anyone. I am on a hot streak on UNDERS hitting last week on the GB/DET FH UNDER, the STL Team Total UNDER and the Minn/Oak UNDER.
* As for @Miami +1.5 vs Dallas: The Cowboys problems are real. Even with a backup a decent team doesn’t lose 7 games in a row. The Pats went 11-5 with Matt Cassell and I know the comparison is not apples to oranges but other examples abound. The Steelers managed to win a few games with backups, including some tough games. A team that is well rounded and well coached can win a game or two with a shitty QB. So if I can take a short home dog against a flawed team relying on a QB who hasn’t played a game in two months I think that is where the value lies. I would also note the public loves the Cowboys, but since I am on the side of the public with the Jets, Oakland and the Pats it probably doesn’t carry too much clout.
* I have a pretty strong lean on Wash +7.5 but the game just missed the cut. Maybe I will look for a 2h play. I also have leans on CAR TT UNDER 26.5, ATL TT UNDER 26. But I have enough reservations to lay off.
*I am not crazy about the late games. I like Arizona at 3 but the value has been sucked out of that one. The 4 pm games don’t appeal to me (SD +3 might be an option but still mulling). I may try to find value in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half of those games.
*Will add write-up on NE game tomorrow well before kickoff.
