Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 6)

[chonce]

Hello all. Here is a link to last week's thread (I do this each week rather than have one long thread).

Last week: 6-3 + 3.7 units

Year to date: 34-17 + 14.1 units

TNF:

SD + 3.5 (-120)

Perfect conditions for Denver to regress to a SB hangover. Short week, wrong coach, wrong QB, laying the hook on the road? I know Denver gets lots of fans in SD and I also know that SD is excellent at finding ways to lose, but SD seems like the value play here. I lean UNDER too, or maybe Denver TT Under (24). But for now, just the side.

 

[chonce]

Anyone have any opinion on if the WASH line might move at all. I can't believe they are home dogs and like them, but I don't know if I should wait. I doubt the Philly action will push it to a 3, but that would be ideal.

 

[indiana]

chonce..........nicely done last week..........BOL with your action.............indy

 

[chonce]

Thanks Indy.

Add:

NYG - 3 (-120) 1 unit

 

[PatsFanatic]

I will be on SD tonight as well Chonce....continued success this season!

 

[chonce]

Thanks Pats Fanatic! Glad we cashed it. I fell asleep and missed all but the last 3 minutes, basically.

For the week: 1-0 + 1 unit

For the season: 35-17 + 15.1 units

Mulling my options for week 6. The book had its worst week of the year last week and I expect them to do well this week (SD already helps them). So I am looking closely at Mia, SF, Wash. But not sure.

 

[chonce]

Add:

Wash + 3 (-115) 2 units

I think the wrong team is favored here. Philly has had an amazing start but lost to Detroit last week (and i bet against them then). I think these teams are broadly even, and now I have a division team, getting 3 at home? The defending NFC East champs? My only hesitance is that Philly's defense has given up so few points and have a much better point differential. But this line suggests if this were in Philly they would be 9 point favs? I think these teams are close enough and I get home field and points.

I am glad I waited. I would've had to pay -135 for this line, or live with 2.5 if I didn't wait until today when it moved up to 3 (-115). I doubt it goes much further. Certainly not 3.5. That is what I am guessing by making the play now. Also, as I said above, last week was the worst of the season for bookmakers. So I expect a lot of home dogs to cover this week. SD already has.

 

[tulah]

The Skins usually play The Eagles tough . I expect a big win .
Hail to the redskins !

best of luck this week

 

[cashflow50]

you might wana take a look at the raiders again this week chonce. Live dog there as well.

 

[TomandJerry]

good luck this week Chonce.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck this weekend my friend.....

 

[indiana]

chonce...........nicely done YTD..........continued success with your action this week............indy

 

[chonce]

Add

Chi -1 (-115) - 1 unit

Cutler is doubtful and the team is much better with Hoyer, getting almost 400 yards in a loss last week. Jax is off a bye, but are probably a bit overvalued because of their win in London. They have only one 1 road game in their last 18.

KC - 1.5 - 1 unit

I like OAK but I think everyone does now. Andy Reid is coming off a bye is 15-2 and Oak fans just found out there is a good chance they will have a lame duck squad that bolts to Las Vegas in 2 years. They have a potential expiration date.

SF + 9

I think Kaep may provide a temporary spark, but he doesn't need to be that good to cover this many points. The Bills have won the last 3 but the Rams pissed away last weeks and they faced a third string QB with a broken hand in NE. I bet against the Bills the last 2 weeks and lost so this one will hurt if they burn me again, but I think this game could be an upset special. Buffalo probably shouldn't lay more than 7.5 to anyone.

 

[chonce]

My Card (so far):

Thursday

SD + 3.5 + 1 unit (WIN)

Sunday 1 pm est

Wash + 3 (-115) - 2 units
SF + 9 - 1 unit
Chi - 1 (-115) - 2 units
NYG - 3 (-120) - 1 unit

4 pm

KC -1.5 - 1 unit


***

May add more in the morning, and if Cutler is starting for some reason I will try to buy out of the Bears game, but he is listed as doubtful. I lean MIA, DET and Bears/Jax OVER but my card is plenty full for the moment. Good luck all.

 

[chonce]

Note: Bears -1 (-115) is 2 units. I have it right on the card, but only listed as 1 in the original (and I was too late to edit it).

 

[chonce]

Add

Det -2.5 (-120) - 1 unit

I have not been good at capping the Rams (bet on them and lost last week, bet against them (and lost) vs the Bucs. But the line movement has me persuaded. I think Detroit is the better team and we may see more 8-8 bullshit from the Rams. That is all for now -- good luck all!

 

[chonce]

Thursday

SD + 3.5 + 1 unit (WIN)

Sunday 1 pm est

Wash + 3 (-115) - 2 units
SF + 9 - 1 unit
Chi - 1 (-115) - 2 units
NYG - 3 (-120) - 1 unit
Det -2.5 (-120) - 1 unit

4 pm

KC -1.5 - 1 unit

Week: 1-0 + 1 unit
Season: 35 -17 + 15.1 units

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today

 

[chonce]

Thanks.

One late addition (homer alert!):

NE (First Half) Team Total OVER 14 - 1 unit

Brady is ready to run through a wall for his return to home. The Pats are fast starters. It was this or FH -4 (5 Dimes) but I am betting on Tom Brady and I want to leave the defense out of the equation (unless they score points).

 

[chonce]

Well I split my morning games, so for the week I am 4-3 +.4 units.

KC pending. Will look for half-time value. The Chicago loss was a heartbreaker but I was lucky to cover with the G-men and Detroit, so no complaints.