Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 5)

[chonce]

Sorry to post this so early, but as a homer I am obligated to do this and the line seems to going against me. I am a Pat's fan and I don't care about trends, consensus or even Xs and Os. I am blindly laying the chalk in honor of TB (even though clearly the value is on CLE -- but that doesn't mean they wont lose 30-7). But this is a homer pick, that much I know is true. It may still be a winner, but still...

Pats -9.5 (-120) - 1 unit


Last week 5-2 +2.4 units (Monday Night Football pending Minn -4.5 (-115) 1 unit)

Year to date: 27-14 +9.4 units

I will update my record after MNF.

 

[ReBornNJ]

Good luck bruh!!!!

 

[chonce]

Results from Week 4: 6-2 + 3.4 units

Year to date: 28-14 +10.4 units

We're on to week 5.

 

[chonce]

I am adding 1 more unit on NE. It is -9.5 (-125). My initial bet was -120 so it is effectively -122.5). Also adding a Thursday play on Arizona. I am with the public on both of these games, but Bob Scucci says the sharps have been laying off SF a bit.

Pats -9.5 (-122.5) 2 units
Cards - 3 (-125) - 1 unit

 

[Soccerguru]

Good luck this week!!

 

[chonce]

Thanks:

add

Wash + 4 - 1 unit

Tenn + 3.5 (-120) - 1 unit

Cinci - 1 - 2 units

I am also taking Detroit but I am hoping the line goes to 3.5 (or at least 3.5 -120). But I think I am better of waiting a bit. I also lean ATL, ATL/Denver UNDER, SD, & both New York teams a but not sure if I like it enough to play. It is only Wednesday (for some reason I thought it was Thursday all day.).

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Chonce, what do you like about Cinci? That line has been.going back & forth.......I too think the Bengals win but can't pull the trigger cuz Prescott is playing great & wouldn't be surprised if Dallas won.......but Cinci should win tho.

Good luck with all your plays!

 

[MalikSealy]

chonce, lean to the titans myself...

wanting to hear your thoughts on the Detroit side. They have not looked good since week 1, Caldwell a poor coach, they lose another Rb in Washington who was supposed to take over, Schwartz comes back to Det w 2 weeks to prepare and brings in his surprisingly solid D, and I heard (can't confirm) that Ziggy Ansah for Det is ? for the game...lots going against them here. Don't like backing a popular road fav, with a rook qb, but hoping they bye doesn't mess with their momentum...

If you have the time, thanks...

 

[chonce]

Malik,

I will do a write-up on Detroit when time permits. But the short of it is that I think Philly's hot start is making them overvalued and having a rookie QB on the road to me stood out as a chance to zig when others zag. Doesn't always pan out, but I feel like Philly comes back to earth a bit.

I can't give a ton and Xs and Os on why Detroit will play great. I don't trust their coaching staff. But it is hard to win on the road. Hell, Detroit was a heavy road fav vs Chicago and lost that.

 

[chonce]

TCG, will write something up on Cinci too, when time permits (watching baseball at the moment).

Add

Det + 3.5 (-115) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Malik,

I will do a write-up on Detroit when time permits. But the short of it is that I think Philly's hot start is making them overvalued and having a rookie QB on the road to me stood out as a chance to zig when others zag. Doesn't always pan out, but I feel like Philly comes back to earth a bit.

I can't give a ton and Xs and Os on why Detroit will play great. I don't trust their coaching staff. But it is hard to win on the road. Hell, Detroit was a heavy road fav vs Chicago and lost that.

I should add I am only betting 1 unit, so it isn't like some play of the year. I just think it is a lot to ask for PHI to win on the road and stay undefeated, and I am getting the hook too. The books said early sharp money was on PHI, so that is unusual. But one bookmaker I listed to a lot (Bob Scucci on Behind the Bets, said he was comfortable with his 12 sports books needing Detroit, and I felt the same way).

 

[chonce]

For the Week: 1-0 + 1 unit


Year to Date: 29-14 + 11.4 units

 

[chonce]

Good luck everyone.

My card for this week (so far):

Arizona -3 (-120) - 1 unit W
Patriots -9.5 (-122.5) 2 units
Wash + 4 - 1 unit
Tenn + 3.5 - 1 unit
Detroit + 3.5 (-115) 1 unit
Cinci -1 - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Add

Ram ML + 120 - 1 unit

I don''t get the line movement, but I am taking the bait. Rex Ryan has a horrid straight up record after a win (I forget the details but it was like 5-24 or something, maybe someone can correct me; this didn't pan out last week but the Pat's were down to an injured third string QB who is now on IR from an injured thumb -- on his throwing hand -- that he played through. Rex's horrific straight up record following a win is likely a reflection of his hubris, and after winning in NE? I think the line was right the old way. I am taking the money like because the best price I can find is 5 Dimes -2.5 or -3 (-130) and I don't think laying that kind of juice is that sound of a strategy over the course of a season. I don't think all that much of the Ram's offense but they have been sneaky good. Keenum is 6-2 in his last 8.

 

[chonce]

Wow, great morning. 4-0 for the 1 pm games and 5-0 for the week as NE, Det, Wash and and Tenn both cover. 2 late games to go: Cinci, LA. I am doing quite well!

For the day: 4-0 + 5 units

For the week: 5-0 + 6 units

Year to date: 33-14 + 16.4 units

 

[ActionMan]

Nice job...keep it rolling.

 

[PeePee]

Nice!!!

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

Good for you chonce, keep it up bud

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys. Going to try to keep grinding!

 

[iamnomad]

Excellent work!