Chonce's NFL Picks (Week 1)

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I haven't done all my research for the week but I do want to bet 1 game now, as the line has moved a lot and if it goes off a 2.5 I won't be able to get it at 3 (I will buy points to get to a 3 but try to never go above -130 and even then, I am not sure it is smart -- but I can't stomach taking 2.5 points).

Tenn + 3 (-130) -- 1 unit (1.3 to win 1)

More to come, obviously.


I am excited to be back. Last year was a roller coaster, but a successful ride nonetheless. I will go back and find the final numbers at some point, but I finished up +30 units or so (which is good since my max bet is 4 units). Although, I should note, I went from being up 56 units, down to up 6, and back up to 30 or so in the playoffs -- so I had an hell of a losing streak in the final 4 weeks of regular season).

My approach is as follows: I bet either 1, 2, 3 or 4 units. Most bets are 1 or 2. (-110) unless otherwise stated. I try to have a rule to never have more than 4 units on any one outcome (which includes not doubling up on a team total or a 2nd half bet) although I have broken that rule (usually not with success). I try to do small write-ups, but can't always. I never do teasers or parlays, though I will buy points on key numbers and I do bet halftime lines and team totals (I like team totals a lot).

I am also guilty of making "action" bets on prime-time games that I would probably pass on if it was a Sunday afternoon -- I like to be serious about this, but it is still just recreational for me. On that note, I am a Patriots fan. Sometimes this helps me cap them (I know them well) but other times I am sure -- despite my best attempts at impartiality -- I am clouded by fandom. So, especially with sides, just know that (on totals, I think I am reliable on Pat's games, or at least impartial).

Lastly, I welcome friendly debate/conversation -- I think conversation can really help in figuring out what to bet when you start to talk it over with someone on the other side. Plus, this is an online community, after all, and we all share one common (and incredibly fun) interest.

Good luck everyone.
 
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Denver + 3 (1 unit)

It was this or Carolina TT UNDER, but line movement in some books are forcing me to act now. Getting 3 (-110) while I still can.
 

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Saints -1 (2 units)
Detroit + 4 (1 unit)
Pats/Cards UNDER 47.5 (2 units)


(Leaning TB, CHI, BAL, but going to look further, monitor lines)
 

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So, for simplicity's sake, here is my whole card in one spot

Den + 3 (1 unit)
Ten +3 (1 unit)
Saints -1 (2 units)
Det +4 (1 units)
Pats/Cards UNDER 47.5 (2 units)


The downside in betting early is I can't see the Friday practice reports and injuries reports. Although, there is no probable on the injury report, so the "word" questionable is going to be hard to understand. Practice reports can be helpful (ie a limited or didn't practice guy who is questionable less likely to play than a questionable guy who had full participation). But you have to weigh this with line movement, of course.

But I will keep an eye on if betting early bites me in the ass (I guess line movement wrong, or, the practice report info I am not privy to yet, could've altered my betting strategy. Just food for thought.
 

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chonce.........BOL with this weeks action and have a profitable season............indy
 

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Sorry, I am seeing the TB line go the wrong way for me so must act now:

TB + 3 (1 unit) (-120)

Had to shop to find even a -120. Sharp money, I suspect (Bob Scucci, the vegas linemaker who does the podcast /w Chad Millman says the sharps are taking TB at 3. I haven't seen the consensus, but I do notice the line has fallen to -2.5 in some spots.
 

Balls Deep
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Nice picks :)
We're on the same page. Except the totals. I dont play those.
 

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Thanks guys and yes Seldom, I did have a good year (with some down times!). But overall, my best season in awhile.

FYI:

My logic on Denver tonight. First of all I am higher on Carolina than some -- I am not betting against them. But they couldn't beat Denver with a QB who had nothing at the time. I don't except this random 7th rounder to become great, but even if he sucks his physical skills should be better than that version of Manning. Further, the Broncos don't even need a good passing game to score enough points to win.. Their defense is good for either a TD, or some picks in great field position.

But really, you have a home dog -- with probably the best defense in the league -- getting points. And, they are 3 point dogs against a road favorite who is getting all the public money. As a Pat's fan I would like to see Denver to lose this game. But this situation checks most boxes I look for, as far as a good play. The only reason I don't make it larger it because it is week 1 and week 1 is tricky. But even if this bet loses, I would make the same bet if similar circumstances were to occur. Great defense, great homefield advantage, getting points, public on other side (with reverse line movement to boot).

So that is my logic on Denver. I am big on home teams in week 1 generally. I don't think I have bet on a road team so far this week (I might, but right now I am on TB, Detroit, NO, Tenn -- all at home).

Anyway, just my .02 cents. I will probably give rationales for some, if not all of my other games by Sunday morning, time permitting.
 

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GL this season chonce!
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Good job chonce I like your card looks a lot like mine will
 

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Hello all.

I am adding two bets to my card. One, I am upgrading my Tenn bet to 2 unis. The first unit was expensive (-130) but now I found a +3-115. Put this together and it is, in sum, -122.5 (130+ 115/2 =). Let's say 123 to avoid adding to many decimal points.

So upgrade

Tenn +3 (-123) - 2 units

ADD

SD FH Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) - 1 unit



​I considered taking SD and the points, but felt this was the better way to bet on SD. We shall see.
 

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So my card as of now
Den + 3 (winner +1 unit)


1 pm
SD FH Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) - 1 unit
TB + 3 (-120) - 1 unit
Tenn +3 (-123) - 2 units
NO - 1 (-110) - 2 units

4 p.m.

Detroit + 4 (-110) - 1 unit

SNF

NE/Arizona UNDER 47.5 (-110) 2 units
 

Your Bookies Worest Enemy
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So my card as of now
Den + 3 (winner +1 unit)


1 pm
SD FH Team Total OVER 9.5 (-120) - 1 unit
TB + 3 (-120) - 1 unit
Tenn +3 (-123) - 2 units
NO - 1 (-110) - 2 units

4 p.m.

Detroit + 4 (-110) - 1 unit

SNF

NE/Arizona UNDER 47.5 (-110) 2 units

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!! :103631605
 

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