Chonce Week 12/Thanksgiving Picks

[chonce]

Last Week (link): 2-0-2 + 2 units
For the Year: 53-32 + 11.2

Two pushes last week and feel a little robbed not cashing Hou + 7, but so it goes.

Week 12

Wash + 7 - 1 unit (-115)

I should've taken this at 7.5. We are seeing steady reverse line movement already (despite public, obviously, taking the Cowboys until they lose). Taking this now because this is slipping to 6.5 or 7 (-120) and so on.

Obviously, more to come.

 

[chonce]

I would also suggest taking Jets + whatever.

I probably won't because I don't like betting against the Pats, it makes me too conflicted when watching. But this game is always tough for the Pats.

 

[KingEleven]

Good Luck Chonce

 

[chonce]

Add

Car + 3.5 (-115) - 1 unit

Last 3.5 I can find right now at TopBet. I think the Raiders lose this week. I would still take this at 3.

 

[indiana]

chonce..........BOL with all your action this week...........you and your family have a great Holiday............indy

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys!

Anyone think the Detroit/Vikings like will move?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Like the plays Chonce, now go bet the Jets

 

[chonce]

Thanks TCG,

If I do decide to bet the Jets, I might wait anyway just to see if it goes my way (no guarantee, as I am sure sharps are pounding them).

Add

Min PK +100 - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

I am mulling taking Min Team Total (first half) OVER 10....still undecided.

 

[chonce]

Too indecisive on the team total -- might play it in 2nd half depending on things shake out. So for now today's card:

Min PK + 100 - 1 unit
Wash + 7 (-115) - 1 unit

I think Wash has a decent chance of winning straight up, killing all the Pitt/Dallas teasers. So I may add more to that. But it is down to 6 so I may bet them in another way, such as Team Total. But I will see how it shakes out. The more the line drops, the more I like Wash. Very live dog, I think

 

[chonce]

So I have Minn PK, but if I am being honest, I don't like it right now. But if I buy out, I expose a 3-point middle. So I am going to try something else:

Det Team Total (2nd Half) OVER 10 (-125) - 2 units (available at 5 Dimes)

If Detroit covers this, it is likely Minny loses. But I can't stand still. Bradford is a mess, the Lions offense looks pretty good and they have been a solid 2nd half team. In a perfect world Minny outscores them 21-14 and I win both. Or, they go up 7-0 and I lose both. But that is why they call it gambling.

 

[chonce]

Add

Pit (First Half) -4.5 (-120) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

No 2nd half play in Indy. 2-2 for the day. Big mistake was taking Det 2nd half TT OVER. Wild miscalculation.

Anyway, on to Sunday.

 

[chonce]

2-2 on Thursday.

Today's card:


SD - 2 (-115) - 2 units
ATL (1st half) - 3 - 1 unit
Carolina + 3.5 - 2 units (added 1 unit)
KC + 3.5 - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Add:

Phi (1st Half) -2.5 - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Good luck to all. Taking one look at Team Totals so I may add one more.

 

[BetMONSTERS]

Choice needing some advice on the Chi total, thoughts on the total in that game?

 

[chonce]

Hey Bet Monsters!

Funny you mention that, as I was just about to add:

Ten Team Total OVER 23.5 (-115) - 1 unit

I have been riding Tenn Team Totals lately with some success. Can you take a team total or do you need an opinion on the game total? I suppose I would lean OVER 41 though I don't know much about the Bear's backup QB. I do think Tenn will score though (in fact, the more I see the game, the more I think about laying the chalk, but hard to lay 6 points on the road with a team that loses as much as Tenn

 

[BetMONSTERS]

Here's the deal Tennessee over 40.5 bought 1.5 is the last leg of a 5 teamer for me 300 pays 4k... so I'm sweating it thinking Chi can't score... just considering hedging an amount possibly if it makes sense, when I made the bet I thought Cutler was playing.

 

[BetMONSTERS]

Bear backup Matt Barkley USC product has mainly been a backup his whole career, honestly not enough info to to say how he will play but my thoughts are they're gonna lean heavy towards the run game, hence possibly a lower total, 4 of 6 Chi home games have gone under 42