Chonce NFL (Week 2)

[chonce]

Last week and YTD (link):
YTD: 6-3 + 4.65 units

TNF
Cinci - Team Total UNDER 22.5 - 1 unit
I expect an ugly offensive game, but i feel safer going UNDER 22.5 than UNDER 38 for the game.

NE - 4.5 (1 units) (posted last week on Monday before Saints played, agnostic about the larger line). Explained my rationale there.

 

[chonce]

Cinci can't hit the total and we finish with a win.

YTD: 7-3 + 5.65 units


Add:

Tenn - 1.5 (-110) - 2 units

In the case of Tenn I am basing this on Xs and Os, not trends. Actually Jax is 4-1 ATS in last 5 and 9-2-2- in last 13 vs Tenn (ATS). But i can't see Jax taking a 2-game lead. The Titans have a more talented team and a real QB. Their head coach is a problem (onside kick to start the season?). But I love their defense, which added the underrated Logan Ryan in the off-season. Should be able to handle a team with a bad QB situation and no Allen Robinson.

Wash + 3 (-120) - 1 unit

In both cases I am betting on teams that lost last week who are playing teams that won, despite being projected to suck. I think LAR have no real home field advantage and the huge win over Indy doesn't tell us much. Honestly, I think this is a bad line and an overreaction to last week.

 

[seldomseen]

Good luck! This new Behind the Bets crew sucks.

 

[chonce]

Det + 3.5 (-125) 1 unit

I told myself I wasn't going to buy points this year as much since it is generally not a winning proposition. But I struggle to keep the discipline. So I bought the hook off a +100. When I first saw this line I wondered if Detroit was favored by 3 for half a second.

Trying to decide if I want to play Minn and Indy which are strong leans. Studying the board.

The card:

NE - 4.5 (played it Monday night pre-Saints game) - 1 unit
Ten - 1.5 (-110) - 2 units
Wash + 3 (-120) - 1 unit


Det + 3.5 (-125) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Good luck! This new Behind the Bets crew sucks.

Yes I am saddened by Millman's departure. I found that podcast (until this week) useful. I understand Scucci will be back with that guy who used to fill-in for Chad, so I hope this is the last we hear from this crew. I couldn't even listen to it.

Last week Scucci noted sharp money was on Phi, for instance, which I would've guessed otherwise. Helped me cap for sure, as he has in the past.

 

[chonce]

Add:

Pitt TEAM TOTAL UNDER 27 (-115) - 1 unit


So I have strong leans on Minny, Indy and Buffalo, but will wait to find value at half-time lines perhaps.

 

[chonce]

Total card so far:

CIN TT UNDER 21.5 - (w) + 1 unit

NE - 4.5 (played it Monday night pre-Saints game) - 1 unit
Ten - 1.5 (-110) - 2 units
Pitt TT UNDER 27 (-115) - 1 unit


Wash + 3 (-120) - 1 unit


Det + 3.5 (-125) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Lean on Indy and Buffalo as well, but kept my 1 pm card to 3 games. May add at half-time.

 

[chonce]

Wow, thought about middling or buying out of Pitt, but the number is so low it feels like its what Vegas wants. Staying put and hoping Pitt stays UNDER 13 in second half. Didn't want to juice myself trying to middle.

 

[chonce]

Fuck Zimmer. SHould've bought out when I had the chance. Fake punt on 4th and 9 from his own 35!?

 

[chonce]

Wow, Pitt TT UNDER hits.

Good 1 pm slot:

3-0 + 4 units

YTD: 10-3 + 9.65 units

Wash remaining.

 

[Dexter03]

gj!!

 

[chonce]

Wash in victory formation. 4-0 for the day + 5 units!

Add:

Atl - 3 - 1 unit

After seeing how bad Seattle is last weeks win seems less impressive. Meanwhile, ATL (like NE before them) may have been suffering from a SB hangover. All that said, I may be betting this because it is a nationally televised game. If this was a 1 pm game I probably would pass. But I do this for fun so I will wager a unit on this lean. GB's missing tackles could be a problem as the Falcons have some good pass rushers.

Lean UNDER as well but no bet.

YTD: 11-3 + 10.65 units

 

[PeePee]

Impressive start to nfl... Very hard to cap imo.

 

[seldomseen]

Yes I am saddened by Millman's departure. I found that podcast (until this week) useful. I understand Scucci will be back with that guy who used to fill-in for Chad, so I hope this is the last we hear from this crew. I couldn't even listen to it.

Last week Scucci noted sharp money was on Phi, for instance, which I would've guessed otherwise. Helped me cap for sure, as he has in the past.

Without Scucci there is no reason to listen to. If you don't already listen to it check out the Vegas Stats and Information podcast. They had Bill Krackomberger and Warren Sharp on this week. Those guys have some pretty interesting things to say.

And nice start to the season. Hope you finish as well as you have the past few years.

 

[ChillyH2O]

Chonce - always look for your posts- thanks for contributing - great start to the year - congrats and cheers - go dirty birds !!!

 

[chonce]

Thanks guys.

YTD: 12-3 + 11.65 units

Got Detroit tonight. Probably due for a regression.

Also, I want to get this early for the London game in week 3.

Ravens - 4 - 2 units

I feel like the book hung a pretty bad line here for a game on a neutral site.

 

[protein7g]

Chonce, I've made some good coin tailing you. Thanks for posting and wish you continued success.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight my friend...

 

[chonce]

Thanks Chilly, Protein and XSPower et al GL to all of you as well.


Det covers, so we are

YTD: 13-3 + 12.65 units

This is clearly unsustainable Obviously I am due to a regression so it is a time to be cautious.