Awesome year Chonce. I might buy out of the Denver KC game. My initial lean was KC then swapped back to Denver because of Ware and Talib in. When that happens it usually means I need too think of buying back my bet. These teams look pretty even to me but everyone keeps saying how much better KC is. If they are even on a neutral, the line looks perfect. There's a lot of other factors though. What made you like KC?
Hey BIG!
Happy holidays. The sharps are on Denver, or they were at first. But ultimately i decided to go with KC for Xs and Os reasons. I agree strongly with what OfficialSono said, and having watched Denver closely vs NE, I feel less intimidated by them than ever before. Their offense is official woeful, especially since they lost Anderson. They scored 3 points last week (at home), 10 the week before, 20 the week before that (vs the Jags). They have only had like 70ish some rushing yards the last 2 weeks. And the team has been fighting each other (offense vs defense etc...). They are averaging 11 ppg in the last 3 on offense (and that is with the benefit of that defense).
The HFA is so immense, and KC now has a real chance for the division with Carr out, so added motivation. If they win out, and Oak loses to Denver next week, I think they get the division and a bye (correct me if I am wrong). Also, the line being affordable (-125) was a big factor. At 3.5 I may have passed, or tried a half-time line or team total. (Although I suspect this is a low-scoring game, Idon't know if I would be the UNDER since the number is so low). I think Arrowhead (and Mile High) are worth more than 3 points, as is usually given for HFA. I would argue it is worth an extra half point or so. And on a nuetral field I would l like KC by at least 1 point, maybe 2. So I think 3 is good value (and we can thank the sharps for the good price; the bookmaker I listened to -- Bob Scucci from the Orleans who does a pod-cast -- says the public is slighyl favoring KC< the sharps on Denver, and the book will need KC.
Denver needs the game too. But even if they win, they need a lot of help. (I do wonder, as an aside) if NE even wants to win next week; being the #2 seed to Oak is no big deal since Oak wont make AFCCG without Carr, but if Miami wins, it may boot out Denver, B-more or Pitt (whoever loses the north). And I think NE would rather face Miami than either of those teams).
KC is a c**t hair away from being 11-3 and have won 11 of 13 of their last home games SU. Although, Denver has fared well, covering in 5 of the last 6 in Arrowhead, but that with Manning, mostly.
Not the strongest play for me (Detroit is my favorite play).
But I could've found an argument for Denver.. I just am more persuaded by the KC argument.
