Chonce NFL Picks (week 14)

[chonce]

Week 13 isn't over but I am looking likely to split my card (link)and lose some juice, depending on of I make a MNF bet. Posting this early because I bet it early and I suspect the line won't stay at 3 for very long.

Minn - 3 (-125) - 3 units


Bortles has thrown more pick 6s (11) than he has career wins (10-31). Jax is now officially out of the hunt, the coach is in lame duck status, and Bortles also seems destined to a Jake Locker-style fate. "This season is “the biggest nightmare possible” he said after losing to Denver. Fail to see why the break the losing steak in week 14. I am firmly with the squares on this one, and I should've been last week. Minny has major problems on the 0-line, but could've easily won the last two games (and they covered last week, lost by .5 pts the week before). Zimmer should be back and this already the playoffs for them. They have 4 games left: Jax, Indy, GB (who they already beat once) and CHI). So they could still leap frog Washington or Tampa Bay. I just think this one lines up nicely for the road fav here. 3.75 units to win 3.

 

[chonce]

Last week: 4-5 - 3.1 units

For the Year: 68-40 + 12.5 units


I don't think I am taking a side on Thursday night. Oak is the better team, but Arrowhead is a tough place to play.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Very tough week.......like your Vikings play!

 

[Soccerguru]

GL this week Chonce! Any opinion on our Patriots this week?

 

[chonce]

Oak (2nd Half) Team Total OVER 12 - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

GL this week Chonce! Any opinion on our Patriots this week?

I haven't looked hard, but a cursory glance makes me think the line is too high -- Ravens are good at Gillette. But I will look closer and see if there is any value on total. I doubt I will take a side, but I think Baltimore is probably where the value is.

 

[OfficialSono]

Oak (2nd Half) Team Total OVER 12 - 1 unit

This bet should have been a wrap already Chonce.

 

[THawk+]

took same thing. Raiders just choked and spit the bit.

Raiders are not mentally tough and seems the cold is effecting their play on offense tonight...
Carr and Cooper look like they are very soft and don't like the cold.

 

[chonce]

Add:

ARI - 1 (-120) - 1 unit

 

[chonce]

took same thing. Raiders just choked and spit the bit.

Raiders are not mentally tough and seems the cold is effecting their play on offense tonight...
Carr and Cooper look like they are very soft and don't like the cold.

Yeah, I thought it would be easy when they got those 2 turnovers. That pinky was more hurt than I realized. So it goes...

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Add:

ARI - 1 (-120) - 1 unit

Can't figure this game out .....I did like Miami at first but a 3 point swing has me confused......good luck with the plays.

 

[In2Win]

Add:

ARI - 1 (-120) - 1 unit

Like it-Miami is banged up on the defensive side. Johnson should do well

 

[XSPower]

Good luck this weekend!!!

 

[chonce]

Add

NYJ/SF UNDER 44 (-120) - 1 unit


Also mulling Chi and CLE + 5 but may not have the stomach for both of those. I have to admit, now that I can get NE -6 (-120) it is tempting, but I also think OVER is attractive. Going to wait until Monday to decide that though. So for now: Minn, Ari, NYJ under and will decide on CLE/CHI tomorrow.

 

[chonce]

Add

NE - 6 (-118) - 1 unit

I liked Baltimore at the start of the week, but the line has dropped too much for me not to take the bet. It reminds me of last years NE home game vs Jets which opened at 9, got pounded by the sharps so hard I got it at -6.5, and I hit the number at 7 (even though most Jet's betters also covered. Anyway, some stats: Pats are 6-2 ATS at home in last 8, 21-4 SU in last 25, and 7-2 SU at home ATS vs Baltimore in last 9 (which goes back further than I normally life for a trend, but this probably reflects the entirety of the Harbaugh era, so I include it.

 

[chonce]

Can't figure this game out .....I did like Miami at first but a 3 point swing has me confused......good luck with the plays.

Yeah, TCG, according to Scucci from the Orleans Sportsbook (who does that podcast, which I find useful) for some reason Arizona is the binky of the sharps this week, which explains the rapid line movement. It reminds me a bit of Buff vs LA, when Buff went from being +2.5 vs -3 (though that was late line movement). The line movement makes me like them, but admittedly, also sucks some of the value out. Sometimes it pays to wait until line movements gets to extreme (great to get a middle too, in hindsight I should've take Baltimore and Arizona at the outset, and would have pretty nice middling oppurtunities);

Good luck all!

 

[OfficialSono]

On the Vikings today also Chonce.

I think the defense especially that front 7 will give Bortles fits and that in turn should make for an afternoon of good field position for the Vikings BUT my concern is will that non existent offense turn up and actually take advantage.

BOL to us both.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today.....

 

[chonce]

Thanks and good luck.

So my card

Thursday
Oak 2nd half OVER 10 LOSS - 1.1 unit

Sunday
Minny - 3 (-125) - 3 units
Zona - 1 (-120) - 1 unit
NYJ/SF UNDER 44 (-120) - 1 unit

MNF
NE - 6 (-118) - 1 unit

See you guys at halftime perhaps!

 

[chonce]

On the Vikings today also Chonce.

I think the defense especially that front 7 will give Bortles fits and that in turn should make for an afternoon of good field position for the Vikings BUT my concern is will that non existent offense turn up and actually take advantage.

BOL to us both.

Yeah I like Minny a lot, but I can certainly visualize a loss. I suppose that is usually the case for any bet though! Good luck.