Chonce NFL Picks (Week 11)

[chonce]

Last week: 1-3 -4.5 units
Year to Date: 51-32 + 9.1 units

I am on a woeful 2-week stretch, Lost 10 of 12. Regressing to the mean fast, but this was expected. Anyway, still doing well for the year so we try to rebound.

NO + 3.5 - 1 unit



​Good luck all!

 

[zackattackisbackjack]

Yep you're losing tonight bro

 

[seldomseen]

Did you post last week? Good luck this one!

There's a few that look pretty good. Do like the Bears.

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Yep you're losing tonight bro

Yep looks like he won bro

 

[PatsFanatic]

Preppy got beat down last night.

Nice call Chonce!

 

[chonce]

No picks this morning - wasn't a plan so much as me needing an emegency root canal. So I just didn't have time/focus to cap and than I feel asleep and missed the 1 pm games.

So, record still 1-0 for the week.

Will look for 2nd half action today if possible

 

[chonce]

Did you post last week? Good luck this one!

There's a few that look pretty good. Do like the Bears.

I did. went 1-3. Linked above

 

[chonce]

Yep you're losing tonight bro

I just noticed this. Ha, thanks for the in-game update.

 

[chonce]

I did. went 1-3. Linked above

Dindn't get to really cap the early games for reasons mentioned above, so I never formed an opinion on early games (dental emergency, kept me up all night, just woke up at like 4:15).

So I sort of missed most of the week (on accident).

My apologies for not posting sooner.

 

[RookieDL]

How dare you not post.

Goodluck the rest of the way Chonce. Great picks so far.

 

[chonce]

Add

NE/SF (2nd Half) OVER 24 (-120) - 1 unit

Pats would've been up 21-3 at one point but a holding call hurt them-- but they are moving the ball. And their defense is a "bend-don't break" mess right now (SF OVER 7.5 is tempting) so I don't expect them to entirely keep SF out of paydirt. Plus the game is close, so the Pat's won just run the ball.

The weather is shaky, but that is partly why the line is low.

 

[shats]

Chomce,

I like the play, but my guys have it at 24.5 and I already have over 51.5, NE didnt even try to score at the end of the half, those dummys. I also like SF plus 6.5.

 

[chonce]

Yeah Shats 24.5 was widely available, but 5 dimes let you get it to 24 for -120. Good thing too! I got push.

NE was 3rd and goal when they went into victory formation so it was very close to being a win.

Anyway,

for the week:

1-0-1 + 1 unit

 

[chonce]

Add

Wash - 3 (-105) - 1 unit

Trying to ween off buying points. The math doesn't work out very well on a season-long sample size. As a result you can bet on it landing on 3 tonight!

 

[bradyisgod]

Hey chonce. I'm on the skins too. Haven't had a chance to bet much this year. Buying half points is really situational. If you did it on every line that hit 3 of course you'd never be profitable. You have to be able to decipher the games that will play close. I don't always get that right but I do most of the time. Green Bay will be fighting tonight. Let's cash!

 

[bradyisgod]

Congrats Chonce!

 

[chonce]

Hey BIG,

Thanks for stopping by. The Skins showed up.

I am trying to ween of buying points, but ironically, I sort of bought a point at 5 dimes and it landed me a push, but 24 on a half total is a big deal to me.

And of course 3 is a huge deal, but so expensive. I am more willing to buy the points on a larger bet. With a 1 unit bet, if I lose I am down an extra .15 units -- that will add up over time if you go even 60 percent on games where you buy a half point. You need the half point to matter a couple times each season, depending on specifics.

Anyway, I am not militant about this. But I do know that in buying points makes me feel good in the short-term, but probably costs me every years (especially since it is always tempting to buy off a 3, a 7 a 10 etc...)

Anyway, 2-0-1 for the week + 2 units

53-32 + 11.1 units (for the year)

Trying to decide what to do tonight. I do think there is official a tax on Oak. Would them being 9 point favs at home make sense?

But, I am firmly undecided and may look closer at the total options.

 

[XSPower]

:toast:

 

[BetMONSTERS]

solid

 

[bradyisgod]

Hey BIG,

Thanks for stopping by. The Skins showed up.

I am trying to ween of buying points, but ironically, I sort of bought a point at 5 dimes and it landed me a push, but 24 on a half total is a big deal to me.

And of course 3 is a huge deal, but so expensive. I am more willing to buy the points on a larger bet. With a 1 unit bet, if I lose I am down an extra .15 units -- that will add up over time if you go even 60 percent on games where you buy a half point. You need the half point to matter a couple times each season, depending on specifics.

Anyway, I am not militant about this. But I do know that in buying points makes me feel good in the short-term, but probably costs me every years (especially since it is always tempting to buy off a 3, a 7 a 10 etc...)

Anyway, 2-0-1 for the week + 2 units

53-32 + 11.1 units (for the year)

Trying to decide what to do tonight. I do think there is official a tax on Oak. Would them being 9 point favs at home make sense?

But, I am firmly undecided and may look closer at the total options.

Totally agree. It's not a huge deal. Only a huge deal if someone is constantly buying the half point blindly because like you said it ends up costing more long term than the feeling you get buying it. It's probably more stylistic for me than anything. I have good results over the years doing it, but who knows it could be variance. Let's cash tonight.