championship weekend nfl picks

cashducats · Jan 19, 2014

Regular season record
sides 30-16-1
6 pt teasers 4-7-1
halftime bets 5-11

Playoff record (as of sunday morning prior to cin/sd game)
1-1-2 sides
1-0 in game
0-1 halftime
1-0 moneyline

denver moneyline
1. just a better team at home
2. this greatest coaching job ever hype for bellicik is getting a little too much hype. john fox is not chopped liver. remember he only lost by 3 in the superbowl to the pats with jake delhomeboy as his qb. he's a great coach, but no hype for him
3. denver got that 1st playoff win under manning under their belt last week, now they won't be as tight. decker most likely won't get drop balls and get tackled by no one....well, he actually has a pattern of that but what are the odds right?
4. alot being made of chris harris being out but i think that's overrated. linesmakers dont move the line based on a cb being out. besides, who does ne have on the outside to take advantage of an injury like this? bellicik will prob try to find some matchup advantage with vereen but whatever..
5. broncos already smoked this pats team earlier this year (for 1 half) in ne. now at home, doubt they have another colossal meltdown
6. all the suckers seem to be on the pats, both on the radio, my personal friends, and on the message boards.

the reason i'm taking the moneyline instead of laying the points is because i'm a puss and i would be irate if the broncos are leading by 10 or 13 comfortably at the 2 minute warning and the pats get a garbage td at the end. i'm very confident broncos win.

cashducats · Jan 19, 2014

seahawks -3.5

1. i think this will be a total domination, and might take an alternative line later laying more points.
2. homefield in seattle is real, what did sf do the last 2 times they visited seattle. that kind of beatdown gets in one's head after its happened a few times. try too hard to not make a mistake and they make even more
3. kaep has a penchant for wasting timeouts early, they probably blow all three timeouts within the 1st 10 minutes of each half.
4. suckers are loving the niners, most cite the poor wilson stats over the past x amount of weeks and how great kaep is playing, not realizing seattle doesnt win or lose on wilson, its about their defense
5. seattle won't play a great offensive game and they wont need to. sf will give them about 2-3 turnovers and the game snowballs from their.
6. did i mention the crowd? don't let the seahawks score 1st or its over
7. did i mention the crowd? over/under false starts for sf is 5
8. gore is a fumbler and i havent seen him fumble lately. he's due
9. bolden is due for a 15 yd unsportsmanlike. he dodged a couple last week
10. home field means seattle cb's will be able to push hold grab at will, creating small windows for completions. kaep is not pinpoint accurate and has poor touch. i see a pick 6 for seattle in this game

xflrejects · Jan 19, 2014

CASHDUCATS,

Call me a sucker and I have rode the Broncs most weeks. They and a few Iggles helped me crush in my fantasy pool.

THE ONLY REASONS the Panthers came close in that SB were due to Assante Samuel and Eugene Wilson going down within minutes of each other and Delhomme exposed 2 massive mismatches on 2 long bombs or the Pats would have buried them in that game (go back and watch the replay of that entire game and look at collective body of work if you do not believe me). In fact ALL 61 pts. in that game (with a total of 38) were scored inside the last 4 minutes of EACH HALF.

Otherwise I always enjoy your contributions and am in total agreement with your SEA side but you really skewed some bias on your first choice.

Take a closer look at the numbers between these two last 4 games, in the playoffs, Brady as dogs, teams that scored 4+ rushing TD's in last game, BB vs. Manning historically.

That being said you could be bang on today and normally a spread that size NOT in favour of Brady would definitely scream,"Here comes another beautiful Vegas property foundation being poured today!" but I'm not biting.

Wish you well! Enjoy the Games!:toast:

cashducats · Jan 19, 2014

xflrejects said:
CASHDUCATS,

Call me a sucker and I have rode the Broncs most weeks. They and a few Iggles helped me crush in my fantasy pool.

THE ONLY REASONS the Panthers came close in that SB were due to Assante Samuel and Eugene Wilson going down within minutes of each other and Delhomme exposed 2 massive mismatches on 2 long bombs or the Pats would have buried them in that game (go back and watch the replay of that entire game and look at collective body of work if you do not believe me). In fact ALL 61 pts. in that game (with a total of 38) were scored inside the last 4 minutes of EACH HALF.

Otherwise I always enjoy your contributions and am in total agreement with your SEA side but you really skewed some bias on your first choice.

Take a closer look at the numbers between these two last 4 games, in the playoffs, Brady as dogs, teams that scored 4+ rushing TD's in last game, BB vs. Manning historically.

That being said you could be bang on today and normally a spread that size NOT in favour of Brady would definitely scream,"Here comes another beautiful Vegas property foundation being poured today!" but I'm not biting.

Wish you well! Enjoy the Games!:toast:

thanks for the comment, i now wish i would have laid the points with the broncos, i almost talked myself into it when doing my writeup, but didn't want to sweat it at the end.

there was just waaaaaaaay too much talk on sports radio and message boards about how this is bellicik's greatest coaching job, but you can only do it with smoke and mirrors for so long befure a good team exposes you.

this is setting up perfect for my super bowl play with peyton having a great game. i'm pounding seattle (niners if they win) in the superbowl. there will be alot of value with the offensive performance dn is putting up today.