CFL Week 14

[PassTheBuck]

Wanted to get in on this play early, despite the fact that it is not a big play, I still like the number a lot.

Roughriders +7 (-110) @ Alouettes -- 1.25 units: Let's go back one week, Saskatchewan in BC. BC also starts out a 7 point favourite, and the spread eventually dips to 5.5 by game time. Personally, I believe the Lions are much more dangerous at home than the Alouettes. Let's not forget, before last week, the Alouettes were 1-4 against the West, and had not beaten any team in the West by 7 points. Saskatchewan, despite losing both ends of the back to back, played well both times. The second game they were clearly victimized by turnovers, and had they endured an entire game of Jarious Jackson, they very well could have won that game. A good thing about the Riders losing both games is that they appear to be undervalued. This team will not surrender the points that the Eskimos did, as they have one of the better secondaries in the league. The Als are 5-1 at home, but the Riders are 4-2 on the road, having only lost once by 7 points or more. The Riders are now in a 4 way battle for first place, and while they may not win, I think they keep this game close until the very end. Anytime a West team is getting 7 against any East team, you absolutely have to at least take a long hard look. In this case, it's very easy... the Als are overvalued due to their thrashing of the Eskies (while 3.5 point favourites).

BOL


BC Lions (homer) bets: 4-4, -0.30 units
Normal bets: 7-1, +9.56 units
-----------------------------
Overall: 11-5, +9.26 units

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

good luck

i'm passing on this weeks card after a couple bad weeks in a row. nothing looks good to me at all so i'll stay away

 

[Dandy]

Keep in mind, Roughies missing another key offensive player as Wes Cates is likely out.

 

[Leafsfan34]

Keep in mind, Roughies missing another key offensive player as Wes Cates is likely out.

Is this confirmed?

 

[PassTheBuck]

Thanks guys.

About Cates... I'll be honest, it did not occur to me that he might be out. However, now that he very well may be, I still won't change my bet. Forde did well last game, and I think could do a good enough job to keep the Riders in it.

 

[Mr.Parlay]

Damn, I liked the play at first, but tough if Cates is out!

Hope he plays. He actually isn't listed on TSN's site... Hmmm...


SASKATCHEWAN
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
D.J. Flick SB Out Indefinitely (leg)
Matt Dominguez WR Out Indefinitely (knee)
Andy Fantuz SB Out Indefinitely (fibula)
Darian Durant QB Out Indefinitely (rib injury)
Leron Mitchell DB Out Indefinitely (ankle)
Adarius Bowman WR Out Week 13 (quadricep)
Jamie Boreham P Doubtful Week 13 (leg)

MONTREAL
PLAYER POS DESCRIPTION
Dave Stala SB Out Indefinitely (foot)
Dave Mudge OL Out Week 13 (knee)
Avon Cobourne WR Questionable Week 13 (knee)

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding:

BC Lions TT o33.5 (-120) -- 1 unit: This is one of those East vs. West matchups that has shootout written all over it. However, the Tiger Cats may not be able to live up to their end of the bargain, which is why I like the team total. Furthermore, unless I have missed something, I don't think the Tabbies have named their starting QB for Saturday. How pissed do think Casey would be if he was wearing the baseball cap in favour of the surprisingly talented Quinton Porter? There are really only two ways I see this game playing out. One is a shootout between the Cats and Lions, where the Lions march the ball down the field time after time, while the Tabbies throw caution into the wind and just go for it. This is the type of game I can really see happening. However, as they did last time, the Tiger Cats could just not show up and let BC pound the crap out of them. I don't see this game going down any other way. The Tiger Cats are already out of it, which is amazingly pathetic in a four team division where the second place team came into the week at 4-8. They might as well throw a lot of swing passes to Kenton Keith, and really air it out. If Printers is under centre, you know Lumsden won't get the ball much. Turning to the Leos, Buck Pierce will be starting Saturday, as he continues to prove that he can take the hits, and that he isn't the most injury prone QB in the league. He has consistantly thrown for over 300 yards since he took over as the starter in Montreal. I expect him to march the ball down the field with ease, and consistantly put up 7-14 points per quarter. In out of division games, the Lions have averaged 30 points per game, while the Tiger Cats have conceded 33+ points in every out of division game except one, averaging 33.6 points against in 5 games.

BOL...

 

[Rjcsjc62]

Quinton Porter is starting, they are trying to say that Printers has an ankle injury, I am sure that only his pride is hurt. When will Hamilton just cut their losses and give up on Casey? Are they obligated to pay him for the year regardless? I thought you could cut a guy in football and not have to pay him, or at least not have to pay all of it.
Anyway, does this make you more/less confident in your pick? I am considering giving the 13 points but I am struggling with whether or not they are better off with Porter.
I hate to see you on the Riders, I really liked Montreal until I saw your early post. Since there are tons of Rider fans around here I can tell you that their fans and media have completley given up on this team. And these fans have backed some really bad teams in the past. There isn't a rider fan anywhere who thinks this team will win another game for the rest of the year. And they are a first place team. I've never seen anything like it.
BOL Buck

 

[PassTheBuck]

Quinton Porter is starting, they are trying to say that Printers has an ankle injury, I am sure that only his pride is hurt. When will Hamilton just cut their losses and give up on Casey? Are they obligated to pay him for the year regardless? I thought you could cut a guy in football and not have to pay him, or at least not have to pay all of it.
Anyway, does this make you more/less confident in your pick? I am considering giving the 13 points but I am struggling with whether or not they are better off with Porter.
I hate to see you on the Riders, I really liked Montreal until I saw your early post. Since there are tons of Rider fans around here I can tell you that their fans and media have completley given up on this team. And these fans have backed some really bad teams in the past. There isn't a rider fan anywhere who thinks this team will win another game for the rest of the year. And they are a first place team. I've never seen anything like it.
BOL Buck

Well, I decided before the bet that I was ok with either QB. The problem with starting Porter is that I really think they will try to rely on the run game a bit more. However, from what I saw from Porter last week, he looks like he learned a lot from his experience during garbage time this year. The kid throws a good ball, can run surprisingly well, and is a tall guy who looks good in the pocket. The only reason I'm kinda disappointed is because I was hoping to boo Casey in person tonight. Otherwise, I think it's still ok. After all, the bet is more about the BC offence vs. the Hamilton defence. In terms of offensive turnovers, I think there is just as good a chance to see a couple due to inexperience as there was to see a couple due to Casey throwing dangerous passes and not tucking the ball away when he runs.

In terms of Saskatchewan, yah, they really do look banged up. However, they have been banged up all year, and Cates' replacement (Stu Forde) looked really good in last week's game. I agree completely with Powerz, in that it is really tough to back an East team that is laying points against a West team. A touchdown is a ton of points to lay against the Riders... a team that has already beaten Montreal once, and who are 5-0 SU against the East this year. However, due to all the injuries, I am making it a fairly small play.

I'm not sure about giving up the 13 with BC, but a blowout is quite possibile in this spot. What do you think about it? Is the possibility of a back door cover looming large in this game?

Good input Rjcsjc62
GL

 

[Rjcsjc62]

Yeah I cant bring myself to give up 13, I have used them in the second half of a teaser, and I am still thinking about BC -7.5 1H.
Wally used to be the last coach in the world that you want to cover a 13 point spread, he would play ultra conservative on offence, which in the CFL doesn't kill much time it just gives the other team the ball. But I have to give him credit, he has a better killer instinct now than he used to.
Have a good time at the game, I entered that Wendy's kick to win 650 times, and didnt make it. The quarter finalists compete at halftime tonight. Let me know how they do, if your still in your seat at the half. Who knows maybe the Bombers have scouts in the stands. I know I can kick a 30 yarder with nobody watching, not sure if it would get better or worse infront of a crowd.

 

[Mr.Parlay]

Toronto ML for fun.

:lolBIG:

 

[PassTheBuck]

Toronto ML for fun.

:lolBIG:

If Joseph is starting, it isn't a bad idea in terms of a long shot to sprinkle on. However, if Cody Pickett is playing... forget it. He looked completely confused last week. I'd rather put my money on the Generals than Cody Pickett.