CFL Week 10

[PassTheBuck]

Lions/Alouettes OVER 58.5 (-110) -- 2 units: After laying off the Lions for several weeks, I've decided to tempt fate yet again and bet on a Lions game. There are just too many reasons that both teams will move the ball. For the Lions, it all starts with the quarterback. I don't care what the numbers say, if you have watched BC Lions football this year, you know how brutal Jarious Jackson has been. I will give him some credit, he is one of the most consistant QBs in the league... in recent games he consistantly leads scoring drives in the 1st half, only to do absolutely nothing the rest of the way. Last week against Calgary he marches the Lions down the field on their first possession, yet ends the game with only 75 yards passing! Three weeks ago in Edmonton he led the Lions to an impressive half time lead, only to crumble in the second half. This guy has all the tools to be a good QB, but he doesn't have the brain to be a good QB. He is unable to read defences, and makes terrible decisions with the ball. Bring in Buck Pierce (Homer Alert -- look at my avatar!) a guy who has played solid every time he has had a chance. He doesn't have the arm of Jarious, but he puts the ball on target, knows how to spread the ball around, and most importantly he will take what the defence gives him. I am very confident he will be able to move the ball in Montreal. If he can find a way to spread the ball around to his big three (Simon, P. Jackson, Clermont), I can definitely see them coming out of Montreal with a win. Turning to Montreal, you have one of the best offences in the league. What started out as a completely one dimensional attack has become much more balanced as the season has gone on, and Couburne has made believers out of nay sayers. Add this to the fact that Montreal has been dynamite in the air all season long, as Calvillo's shorter drop backs have proven to pay off. The guy may be old, but he is probably the smartest QB in the league. He has already torn up the Lions secondary once this year, on the road. Speaking of the Lions secondary, they will be without corner Dante Marsh, which does not help when you're already getting torched for almost 350 yards per game over your last 4 contests. Although I'm usually weary to bet totals, I think this game goes over the number.

More plays to come...

BOL


BC Lions (homer) bets: 0-2, -2.50 units
Normal bets: 4-0, +5.91 units
-----------------------------
Overall: 4-2, +3.41 units
(avg. wager = 1.42 units)

 

[PhilMoneyMargonis]

Over in this league is never a bad idea. good luck

 

[scottw]

Over was a bad idea last year in almost every Argo game if memory serves. . .

 

[Coaster]

???
Don't see the Leos O doing any better than before.
The D barely okay.
I AM an over player but can't see this one.
Possible rain 30%

 

[PassTheBuck]

???
Don't see the Leos O doing any better than before.
The D barely okay.
I AM an over player but can't see this one.
Possible rain 30%

Yah, I checked the weather report. Hopefully the rain is on Saturday, and it's just partially cloudy.

As for the offence, I have always been a Buck Pierce guy, going back to when Dickenson was running the offence. Buck knows that the door is wide open for him to take the starter's job if he can pull out a road victory. His window of opportunity is closing, as Jarious could probably play right now if he needed to or was playing well. Given that the defence will give up points, I think he gets it done.

A lot of people really liking Montreal to blow out the Lions... and here I am contemplating BC +4.5.

 

[Coaster]

P the B

Gotta like a homer!

Agree, it's Bucks chance!

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding

Lions/Alouettes OVER 57 -- 1/2 unit

 

[powerz]

No way this is a blow out by the AL's i think BC can win SU.....Wait unitl game time for a better line


Looking alot like the CGY result when they played in Montreal.

The Al's look so good becasue they have played - Winn 2X Ham 2X, & Tor.
They have lost to every western team they have played and beat up every eastern team they have faced - padding their stats and thus creating an unrealistic spread tonight.

 

[PassTheBuck]

No way this is a blow out by the AL's i think BC can win SU.....Wait unitl game time for a better line


Looking alot like the CGY result when they played in Montreal.

The Al's look so good becasue they have played - Winn 2X Ham 2X, & Tor.
They have lost to every western team they have played and beat up every eastern team they have faced - padding their stats and thus creating an unrealistic spread tonight.

You are exactly on the money. I don't think there is much value on any East team that is a home favourite against a West team!

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding

Lions +6 (-110) @ Alouettes -- 1.75 units
Lions ML (+210) -- 0.75 units: Powerz had a really good post about this game. Check out the strength of schedule, BC's has been much much harder than Montreal's. I've already said it, but there is no value this year on any East team that is a favourite against a West team. The West is just too good this year. Getting six points is a great number here, as the Lions could by all means take this game outright. I've already said how Buck Pierce is a much more stable QB than Jackson. He does not throw the home run ball as much as Jarious, and knows how to take what the defence will give him. I'm a bit worried about the Leos' defence, but if they can get some serious pressure on Calvillo they can force him to throw quicker than he wants to and disrupt the pass game. I don't think they will have much trouble stopping Couburne, as this team has as good a front 4 as any team in the league. BC's OL needs to hold up and give Pierce some time, and he will find his targets. He has already been quoted as saying he wants to get guys like Clermont involved, which translates to shorter passes and fewer deep bombs.

BOL

 

[1sob]

i got 6.5 for the lions.. im gonna by the hook and get 7.. i like buck than jackson.. you nailed it when you say buck will take what the defence gives and jackson wants the home run ball all the time.. Go Lions Go !!

 

[PassTheBuck]

If you take out his last pass, Buck is playing fantastic. Turnovers just killing the Lions.... who should probably be up at least one touchdown on the Als. The over doesn't look good here... defences coming to play.

 

[PassTheBuck]

This is one of the worst losses I've ever seen. They really don't get much more painfull than this....

The over... the win.... all those turnovers.... all culiminating in three missed opportunities from the 1. Might as well call it 4 opportunities from the 1, since Logan had a one on one opportunity to get in before he was tackled on the 1 in the first place.

Wow... I really can't believe what happened. In the CFL, with the players having to line up a yard off the line, one yard is never that difficult. Furthermore, they could have simply pulled it down on a play action and the whole team would have been open.

 

[Coaster]

That was a very bad beat.
Who ya got today?

 

[PassTheBuck]

That was a very bad beat.
Who ya got today?

Got nothing for that Winnipeg/Sask game tomorrow. Sask too beat up and new QB... and Winnipeg just sucks, plus blink looks to have lost a step.

I like Calgary on Monday, but 5 is a lot to lay on Labour Day, when that game could go either way.

Do like Hamilton a lot Monday. Richie Williams and Jesse Lumsden are the best possible QB-RB combo that they can put out on the field. Meanwhile, Toronto blows on the offensive side of the ball, and without a legitimate running game Kerry Joseph will be running for his life.

What do you like this week?

 

[PassTheBuck]

Adding

Winnipeg +5 (-110) @ Saskatchewan -- 1 unit: At +3 I was on the fence, but in the CFL, any extra points help. At +5, there are too many reasons to sprinkle a few bucks on the dog today. First, Saskatchewan is without two of the best receivers in the CFL, in Matt Dominguez and Andy Fantuz. It can not be stressed enough how much these two mean to the offensive attack of the Riders, as this is no different than BC losing Simon and Clermont, or Winnipeg losing Stegall and Armstrong. Now add in a brand new QB in Michael Bishop, and this offence becomes very confusing very fast. People may say that Bishop is a great fit for Saskatchewan, but ask anyone and they will tell you how difficult it is for a QB to come in midseason and learn a new system, let alone start the first game. The Saskatchewan WRs are already weak, and now they have to contend with a guy who doesn't know the system, and who throws a lot harder than Marcus Crandell. I really think we will see a few broken plays and dropped passes today. Turning to Winnipeg, they finally have Stegall back in the lineup to compliment Armstrong. With Kevin Glenn back starting, this passing game should have some success today, which can hopefully open up some room for Charles Roberts, a guy who clearly looks like he has lost a step. On defence, the Bombers are good, but not as good as the Riders. However, as mentionned before, they will not have to deal with the same threats as the Riders defence, and should be able to key onto Wes Cates and force Bishop to beat them in the air. As long as this doesn't come down to a battle of special teams, I like the Bombers to keep it close.

BOL

 

[powerz]

Good luck Buck - you should have cashed that over on Friday and i don't mean the 3X at the 1 yard line - BC turnovers should have led to more points and victory....


Oh well - I thought that was the best game the lions played this year despite the TO's

Think about it 3 plays turned that game around.

1. Ian Smarts fumble in 1st

2. the 30 yards pitch and catch in montreals final drive

3. The PI in the end zone

Football always comes down to two or three plays - The rest of the time BC held a pretty dynamic football club in check in their own house.

I can see good things from the lions in the future!

Enjoy the game

 

[PassTheBuck]

Good luck Buck - you should have cashed that over on Friday and i don't mean the 3X at the 1 yard line - BC turnovers should have led to more points and victory....


Oh well - I thought that was the best game the lions played this year despite the TO's

Think about it 3 plays turned that game around.

1. Ian Smarts fumble in 1st

2. the 30 yards pitch and catch in montreals final drive

3. The PI in the end zone

Football always comes down to two or three plays - The rest of the time BC held a pretty dynamic football club in check in their own house.

I can see good things from the lions in the future!

Enjoy the game

Agree completely. That game offered a lot of hope for the season. If they can just stop the little mistakes, they can clearly play with anyone, anywhere. I also thought that Logan fumble in the 2nd Q was huge, as the Lions were definitely moving to the red zone. If they go back to Jarious next week I'm gonna go ape